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Abstract The Ross Ice Shelf floats above the southern sector of the Ross Sea and creates a cavity where critical ocean-ice interactions take place. Crucial processes occurring in this cavity include the formation of Ice Shelf Water, the coldest ocean water, and the intrusion of Antarctic Surface Water, the main driver of frontal and basal melting. During the winter, a polynya forms along the Ross Ice Shelf edge, producing a precursor to Antarctic Bottom Water known as High Salinity Shelf Water. Due to the difficulty of direct exploration of the Ross Ice Shelf in the winter, processes occurring there have been only hypothesized to date. Here we show thermohaline observations collected along the Ross Ice Shelf front from 2020 to 2023 using unconventionally programmed Argo floats. These measurements provide year-round observations of water column changes in and around the Ross Ice Shelf cavity, allowing to quantify production of High Salinity Shelf Water, ocean heat content and basal melt rates.

This dataset provides annual statistical descriptors (mean, minimum, maximum, range and standard deviation) of key biogeochemical and physical variables for the Mediterranean Sea. It covers the period 2005–2099 under a high emissions scenario (CMIP5-RCP8.5), with a spatial resolution of 1/24 degree (∼4 km²). The CMIP5-RCP8.5 scenario considers the current trajectory of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and population growth to the end of the century with nominal policies to reduce emissions. Variables include temperature, salinity, pH, water velocity, nutrients (NO3, PO4, NH4), dissolved inorganic carbon, oxygen, and net primary production. Data are available for both surface and at bathymetry level. The original projections were generated using OGSTM-BFM and MFS16 models at daily time and 1/16 degree grid resolution. These were downscaled to 1/24 degree resolution and bias corrected by quantile delta mapping using CMEMS reanalysis products from 2005 to 2020. The dataset is provided in a user-friendly format so that it is accessible for various ecological and environmental modelling applications.

Abstract The attention of the scientific community, policymakers, and public opinion on the Medicanes has recently grown because of their increase in intensity and harmful potential. Although Medicanes may be influenced by pre-existing upper-ocean conditions, uncertainties remain about how such weather extremes influence ocean circulation. This work examines a condition that has been never described before in the Mediterranean, which involves the interplay between an atmospheric cyclone (Medicane Apollo—October 2021) and a cyclonic gyre located in the western Ionian Sea. During the event, the temperature in the core of the cold gyre dropped dramatically, due to a local maximum in the wind-stress curl, Ekman pumping, and relative vorticity. Cooling and vertical mixing of the surface layer combined with upwelling in the subsurface layer caused a shoaling of the Mixed Layer Depth, halocline, and nutricline. The resulting biogeochemical impacts included an increase in oxygen solubility, chlorophyll concentration, productivity at the surface, and decreases in the subsurface layer. The presence of a cold gyre along Apollo's trajectory leads to a different ocean response from that observed with previous Medicanes, endorsing the efficiency of a multi-platform observation system integrated into an operational model for future mitigation of weather-related damages.

Abstract The analysis of experimental data of the solar irradiance, collected on the marine surface, clearly highlights the intrinsic stochasticity of such an environmental parameter. Given this result, effects of randomly fluctuating irradiance on the population dynamics of a marine ecosystem are studied on the basis of the stochastic 0-dimensional biogeochemical flux model. The noisy fluctuations of the irradiance are formally described as a multiplicative Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, that is a self-correlated Gaussian noise. Nonmonotonic behaviours of the variance of the marine populations’ biomass are found with respect to the intensity and the autocorrelation time of the noise source, manifesting a noise-induced transition of the ecosystem to an out-of-equilibrium steady state. Moreover, evidence of noise-induced effects on the organic carbon cycling processes underlying the food web dynamics are highlighted. The reported results clearly show the profound impact the stochastic environmental variables can have on both the populations and the biogeochemistry at the basis of a marine trophic network.

Abstract A LOICZ Budget Model is applied to the Ichkeul Lake, a wetland ecosystem of the South Mediterranean-North African region, to evaluate its functioning in order to boost water management. The Ichkeul Lake water and nutrient budget, net ecosystem metabolism (NEM), nutrient availability, and their seasonal changes are estimated using field data. A considerable anthropogenic-driven amount of nitrogen is transferred into N2/N2O to the atmosphere during the dry season with predominance of denitrification-anammox processes. The primary production is impacted by forcing the ecosystem respiration to reduce the NEM so that the system is functioning as heterotrophic. Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are expected to exacerbate the current trends of water quality degradation, with possible negative impacts on Palearctic birds’ population. Mitigation actions are possible, through the implementation of National Wetland Management Strategies that include nutrient load and water resources management.

Ocean acidification (OA) is a serious consequence of climate change with complex organism-to-ecosystem effects that have been observed through field observations but are mainly derived from experimental studies. Although OA trends and the resulting biological impacts are likely exacerbated in the semi-enclosed and highly populated Mediterranean Sea, some fundamental knowledge gaps still exist. These gaps are at tributed to both the uneven capacity for OA research that exists between Mediterranean countries, as well as to the subtle and long-term biological, physical and chemical interactions that define OA impacts. In this paper, we systematically analyzed the different aspects of OA research in the Mediterranean region based on two sources: the United Nation’s International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Ocean Acidification International Coordination Center (OA-ICC) database, and an extensive survey. Our analysis shows that 1) there is an uneven geographic capacity in OA research, and illustrates that both the Algero-Provencal and Ionian sub-basins are currently the least studied Mediterranean areas, 2) the carbonate system is still poorly quantified in coastal zones, and long-term time-series are still sparse across the Mediterranean Sea, which is a challenge for studying its variability and assessing coastal OA trends, 3) the most studied groups of organisms are autotrophs (algae, phanerogams, phytoplankton), mollusks, and corals, while microbes, small mollusks (mainly pteropods), and sponges are among the least studied, 4) there is an overall paucity in socio-economic, paleontological, and modeling studies in the Mediterranean Sea, and 5) in spite of general resource availability and the agreement for improved and coordinated OA governance, there is a lack of consistent OA policies in the Mediterranean Sea. In addition to highlighting the current status, trends and gaps of OA research, this work also provides recommendations, based on both our literature assessment and a survey that targeted the Mediterranean OA scientific community. In light of the ongoing 2021-2030 United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development, this work might provide a guideline to close gaps of knowledge in the Mediterranean OA research.Systematic Review Registrationhttps://www.oceandecade.org/

Disentangling the effects of mixed fisheries and climate change across entire food-webs requires a description of ecosystems using tools that can quantify interactive effects as well as bio-economic aspects. A calibrated dynamic model for the Sicily Channel food web, made up of 72 functional groups and including 13 fleet segments, was developed. A temporal simulation until 2050 was conducted to evaluate the bio-economic interactive effects of the reduction of bottom trawling fishing effort by exploring different scenarios that combine fishery and climate change. Our results indicate that direct and indirect effects produce a net increase in biomass of many functional groups with immediate decline of trawlers’ catches and economic incomes, followed by a long term increase mainly due to biomass rebuilding of commercial species which lasts 5-10 years after fishing reduction. Synergistic and antagonistic effects caused by changes in the fishing effort and in climate characterize a specific functional group’s response in biomass which, in turn, modulate also the catch and income of the other fleets, and especially of those sharing target resources. However, trawler’s intra-fleet competition is higher than the others fleet effects. In the medium term, the effects of fishing effort reduction are higher than those of climate change and seem to make exploitation of marine resources more sustainable over time and fishery processes more efficient by improving ecosystem health.

This paper presents major gaps and challenges for implementing the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030) in the Mediterranean region. The authors make recommendations on the scientific knowledge needs and co-design actions identified during two consultations, part of the Decade preparatory-phase, framing them in the Mediterranean Sea’s unique environmental and socio-economic perspectives. According to the ‘Mediterranean State of the Environment and Development Report 2020’ by the United Nations Environment Programme Mediterranean Action Plan and despite notable progress, the Mediterranean region is not on track to achieve and fully implement the Sustainable Development Goals of Agenda 2030. Key factors are the cumulative effect of multiple human-induced pressures that threaten the ecosystem resources and services in the global change scenario. The basin, identified as a climate change vulnerability hotspot, is exposed to pollution and rising impacts of climate change. This affects mainly the coastal zones, at increasing risk of extreme events and their negative effects of unsustainable management of key economic assets. Transitioning to a sustainable blue economy is the key for the marine environment’s health and the nourishment of future generations. This challenging context, offering the opportunity of enhancing the knowledge to define science-based measures as well as narrowing the gaps between the Northen and Southern shores, calls for a joint (re)action. The paper reviews the state of the art of Mediterranean Sea science knowledge, sets of trends, capacity development needs, specific challenges, and recommendations for each Decade’s societal outcome. In the conclusions, the proposal for a Mediterranean regional programme in the framework of the Ocean Decade is addressed. The core objective relies on integrating and improving the existing ocean-knowledge, Ocean Literacy, and ocean observing capacities building on international cooperation to reach the “Mediterranean Sea that we want”.

We simulate and analyze the effects of a high CO2 emission scenario on the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemical state at the end of the XXI century, with a focus on carbon cycling, budgets and fluxes, within and between the Mediterranean sub-basins, and on ocean acidification. As a result of the overall warming of surface water and exchanges at the boundaries, the model results project an increment in both the plankton primary production and the system total respiration. However, productivity increases less than respiration, so these changes yield to a decreament in the concentrations of total living carbon, chlorophyll, particulate organic carbon and oxygen in the epipelagic layer, and to an increment in the DIC pool all over the basin. In terms of mass budgets, the large increment in the dissolution of atmospheric CO2 results in an increment of most carbon fluxes, including the horizontal exchanges between eastern and western sub-basins, in a reduction of the organic carbon component, and in an increament of the inorganic one. The eastern sub-basin accumulates more than 85% of the absorbed atmospheric CO2. A clear ocean acidification signal is observed all over the basin, quantitatively similar to those projected in most oceans, and well detectable also down to the mesopelagic and bathypelagic layers.

Ocean reanalyses integrate models and observations to provide a continuous and consistent reconstruction of the past physical and biogeochemical ocean states and variability. We present a reanalysis of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry at a 1/24° resolution developed within the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) framework. The reanalysis is based on the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM) coupled with a variational data assimilation scheme (3DVarBio) and forced by the Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO)–OceanVar physical reanalysis and European Centre for medium-range weather forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis ERA5 atmospheric fields. Covering the 1999–2019 period with daily means of 12 published and validated biogeochemical state variables, the reanalysis assimilates surface chlorophyll data and integrates EMODnet data as initial conditions, in addition to considering World Ocean Atlas data at the Atlantic boundary, CO2 atmospheric observations, and yearly estimates of riverine nutrient inputs. With the use of multiple observation sources (remote, in situ, and BGC-Argo), the quality of the biogeochemical reanalysis is qualitatively and quantitatively assessed at three validation levels including the evaluation of 12 state variables and fluxes and several process-oriented metrics. The results indicate an overall good reanalysis skill in simulating basin-wide values and variability in the biogeochemical variables. The uncertainty in reproducing observations at the mesoscale and weekly temporal scale is satisfactory for chlorophyll, nutrient, oxygen, and carbonate system variables in the epipelagic layers, whereas the uncertainty increases for a few variables (i.e., oxygen and ammonium) in the mesopelagic layers. The vertical dynamics of phytoplankton and nitrate are positively evaluated with specific metrics using BGC-Argo data. As a consequence of the continuous increases in temperature and salinity documented in the Mediterranean Sea over the last 20 years and atmospheric CO2 invasion, we observe basin-wide biogeochemical signals indicating surface deoxygenation, increases in alkalinity, and dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations, and decreases in pH at the surface. The new, high-resolution reanalysis, open and freely available from the Copernicus Marine Service, allows users from different communities to investigate the spatial and temporal variability in 12 biogeochemical variables and fluxes at different scales (from the mesoscale to the basin-wide scale and from daily to multiyear scales) and the interaction between physical and biogeochemical processes shaping Mediterranean marine ecosystem functioning.

Abstract The ecosystem functioning of two marine food webs covering the north‐eastern (Salento) and south‐western (Calabria) sectors of the North‐Western Ionian Sea (NWIS) (Central Mediterranean Sea) was investigated through a food‐web model. Data inputs covered a wide set of ecological information applied to 58 functional groups (FGs). The sum of consumption and the mean predation mortality rate were calculated for benthic, demersal, and pelagic subsystems indicating the predator and prey roles of the FGs. A complex system of energy and biomass exchanges characterized the investigated food webs indicating an important benthic‐pelagic coupling. In the food webs of both areas, the regulation of flows between the benthic‐pelagic coupling seems to occur through the benthopelagic shrimps and the small pelagics due to their wasp‐waist control role. Differences were observed concerning the top predators. Odontocetes play this keystone role in the Salento food web. Anglers, bathyal squids, and sharks assume this functional role in Calabria. The geomorphology and hydrography in the NWIS could affect the biomass and energy exchanges in this coupling. The higher flows of consumption of the benthic system observed in the Calabria food web could be influenced by a widespread presence of canyons along the continental edge which increase the benthic productivity. In contrast, the flows of consumption in the Salento food web seem to be driven by the planktonic productivity supporting the pelagic, benthopelagic, and demersal compartments. This condition could be favored by the large extension of the shelf break zone. The food‐web models realized for the NWIS represent ideal platforms for the development of analysis with dynamic simulations. The comparative analysis of the two food webs by means of the FGs and their functional traits allowed the general pattern of ecosystem structure and functioning in the NWIS to be identified, making it an interesting approach to investigate the marine ecosystem.

Eutrophication is one of the most important anthropogenic pressures impacting coastal seas. In Europe, several legislations and management measures have been implemented to halt nutrient overloading in marine ecosystems. This study evaluates the impact of freshwater nutrient control measures on higher trophic levels (HTL) in European marine ecosystems following descriptors and criteria as defined by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). We used a novel pan-European marine modeling ensemble of fourteen HTL models, covering almost all the EU seas, under two nutrient management scenarios. Results from our projections suggest that the proposed nutrient reduction measures may not have a significant impact on the structure and function of European marine ecosystems. Among the assessed criteria, the spawning stock biomass of commercially important fish stocks and the biomass of small pelagic fishes would be the most impacted, albeit with values lower than 2.5%. For the other criteria/indicators, such as species diversity and trophic level indicators, the impact was lower. The Black Sea and the North-East Atlantic were the most negatively impacted regions, while the Baltic Sea was the only region showing signs of improvement. Coastal and shelf areas were more sensitive to environmental changes than large regional and sub-regional ecosystems that also include open seas. This is the first pan-European multi-model comparison study used to assess the impacts of land-based measures on marine and coastal European ecosystems through a set of selected ecological indicators. Since anthropogenic pressures are expanding apace in the marine environment and policy makers need to use rapid and effective policy measures for fast-changing environments, this modeling framework is an essential asset in supporting and guiding EU policy needs and decisions.

Abstract We introduce a new version of the Earth System Regional Climate model RegCM‐ES and evaluate its performances for the first time over the Mediterranean region. The novel aspect of this coupled system is the possibility to simulate the dynamics of the marine ecosystem through a biogeochemical model, BFM (Biogeochemical Flux Model), coupled online with the ocean circulation model MITgcm (MIT general circulation model). The validation of atmosphere and ocean components has shown that the model is able to capture interannual and intermonthly variabilities of the atmospheric heat fluxes and spatial patterns of land surface temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and sea surface temperature with a general improvement compared to previous versions. At the same time, we diagnosed some prominent deficiencies as a warm and dry bias associated in summer with the resolution of the atmospheric module and the tuning of the boundary layer and convective precipitation scheme. On the biogeochemical side, RegCM‐ES shows good skills in reproducing mean values and spatial patterns of net primary production, phosphate, and horizontal/vertical patterns of chlorophyll‐a. Limitations in this case include deficiencies mainly in the simulation of mean values of nitrate and dissolved oxygen in the basin which have been associated with too large vertical mixing throughout the water column, deficiencies in the boundary conditions, and solubility computations. Overall, RegCM‐ES has the potential to become a suitable tool for the analysis of the impacts of climate change on the ocean and marine biogeochemistry in the Mediterranean region and many other domains.

Coastal wetlands, such as saltmarshes and mangroves that fringe transitional waters, deliver important ecosystem services that support human development. Coastal wetlands are complex social-ecological systems that occur at all latitudes, from polar regions to the tropics. This overview covers wetlands in five continents. The wetlands are of varying size, catchment size, human population and stages of economic development. Economic sectors and activities in and around the coastal wetlands and their catchments exert multiple, direct pressures. These pressures affect the state of the wetland environment, ecology and valuable ecosystem services. All the coastal wetlands were found to be affected in some ways, irrespective of the conservation status. The main economic sectors were agriculture, animal rearing including aquaculture, fisheries, tourism, urbanization, shipping, industrial development and mining. Specific human activities include land reclamation, damming, draining and water extraction, construction of ponds for aquaculture and salt extraction, construction of ports and marinas, dredging, discharge of effluents from urban and industrial areas and logging, in the case of mangroves, subsistence hunting and oil and gas extraction. The main pressures were loss of wetland habitat, changes in connectivity affecting hydrology and sedimentology, as well as contamination and pollution. These pressures lead to changes in environmental state, such as erosion, subsidence and hypoxia that threaten the sustainability of the wetlands. There are also changes in the state of the ecology, such as loss of saltmarsh plants and seagrasses, and mangrove trees, in tropical wetlands. Changes in the structure and function of the wetland ecosystems affect ecosystem services that are often underestimated. The loss of ecosystem services impacts human welfare as well as the regulation of climate change by coastal wetlands. These cumulative impacts and multi-stressors are further aggravated by indirect pressures, such as sea-level rise.

Increasing emissions of CO2 and the resultant ocean acidification (OA) will have large implications for the marine ecosystems sustained by habitat-forming species and their related ecosystem services (ES), with potentially significant impacts on human well-being. Here, we provide an assessment of the direct and indirect impacts of OA on ES. The changes in the functioning of coralligenous reefs and Posidonia oceanica meadows promoted by OA were investigated by i) synthesizing current knowledge into conceptual models. The models were then used to, ii) assessing the impacts of exposure of the selected taxa at the acidification level associated with two CO2 emission scenarios and iii) using the conceptual model outputs to project the cascading impacts from individuals to functions to ES.The results highlight that the combination of the direct and indirect effects of acidification will alter many functions of both coralligenous and P.oceanica systems, triggering habitat modifications and the loss of highly valuable ES.While the exact timing of the expected changes will depend on the severity of the emission scenarios, significant and hardly reversible changes can be expected as quickly as a few decades under the business-as-usual scenario, and many ecosystem services are at risk even under much more conservative scenarios. Keywords: Ocean acidification, Posidonia oceanica, Coralligenous, Ecosystem services, Mediterranean sea, Conceptual models

Benthic-pelagic coupling plays a pivotal role in aquatic ecosystems but the effects of fishery driven interactions on its functioning has been largely overlooked. Disentangling the benthic-pelagic links including effects of mixed fisheries, however, needs sketching a whole description of ecosystem interactions using quantitative tools. A holistic food web model has been here developed in order to understand the interplay between the benthic-pelagic coupling and mixed fisheries in a Mediterranean system such as the Strait of Sicily. The reconstruction of the food web required review and integration of a vast set of local and regional biological information from bacteria to large pelagic species that were aggregated into 72 functional groups. Fisheries were described by 18 fleet segments resulting from combination of fishing gears and fishing vessel size. The input-output analysis on the food web of energy pathways allowed identifying effects of biological and fishery components. Results showed that the structure of the Strait of Sicily food web is complex. Similarly to other Mediterranean areas, the food web of the Strait of Sicily encompasses 4.5 trophic levels (TLs) with the highest TLs reached by bluefin tuna, swordfish and large hake and largely impacted by bottom trawling and large longline. Importantly, benthic-pelagic coupling is affected by direct and indirect impacts among groups of species, fleets and fleets-species through the whole trophic spectrum of the food web. Moreover, functional groups able to move on large spatial scales or life history of which is spent between shelf and slope domains play a key role in linking subsystems together and mediate interactions in the Mediterranean mixed fisheries.

Zooxanthellate corals are known to increase calcification rates when exposed to light, a phenomenon called light-enhanced calcification that is believed to be mediated by symbionts' photosynthetic activity. There is controversy over the mechanism behind this phenomenon, with hypotheses coarsely divided between abiotic and biologically-mediated mechanisms. At the same time, accumulating evidence shows that calcification in corals relies on active ion transport to deliver the skeleton building blocks into the calcifying medium, making it is an energetically costly activity. Here we build on generally accepted conceptual models of the coral calcification machinery and conceptual models of the energetics of coral-zooxanthellae symbiosis to develop a model that can be used to isolate the biologically-mediated and abiotic effects of photosynthesis, respiration, temperature, and seawater chemistry on coral calcification rates and related metabolic costs. We tested this model on data from the Mediterranean scleractinian Cladocora caespitosa, an acidification resistant species. We concluded that most of the variation in calcification rates due to photosynthesis, respiration and temperature can be attributed to biologically-mediated mechanisms, in particular to the ATP supplied to the active ion transports. Abiotic effects are also present but are of smaller magnitude. Instead, the decrease in calcification rates caused by acidification, albeit small, is sustained by both abiotic and biologically-mediated mechanisms. However, there is a substantial extra cost of calcification under acidified conditions. Based on these findings and on a literature review we suggest that the energy aspect of coral calcification might have been so far underappreciated.

The benthic environment is a crucial component of marine systems in the provision of ecosystem services, sustaining biodiversity and in climate regulation, and therefore important to human society. With the contemporary increase in computational power, model resolution and technological improvements in quality and quantity of benthic data, it is necessary to ensure that benthic systems are appropriately represented in coupled benthic-pelagic biogeochemical and ecological modelling studies. In this paper we focus on five topical challenges related to various aspects of modelling benthic environments: organic matter reactivity, dynamics of benthic-pelagic boundary layer, microphytobenthos, biological transport and small-scale heterogeneity, and impacts of episodic events. We discuss current gaps in their understanding and indicate plausible ways ahead. Further, we propose a three-pronged approach for the advancement of benthic and benthic-pelagic modelling, essential for improved understanding, management and prediction of the marine environment. This includes: (A) development of a traceable and hierarchical framework for benthic-pelagic models, which will facilitate integration among models, reduce risk of bias, and clarify model limitations; (B) extended cross-disciplinary approach to promote effective collaboration between modelling and empirical scientists of various backgrounds and better involvement of stakeholders and end-users; (C) a common vocabulary for terminology used in benthic modelling, to promote model development and integration, and also to enhance mutual understanding.

Frequency and severity of heat waves is expected to increase as a consequence of climate change with important impacts on human and ecosystems health. However, while many studies explored the projected occurrence of hot extremes on terrestrial systems, few studies dealt with marine systems, so that both the expected change in marine heat waves occurrence and the effects on marine organisms and ecosystems remain less understood and surprisingly poorly quantified. Here we: (i) assess how much more frequent, severe, and depth-penetrating marine heat waves will be in the Mediterranean area in the next decades by post-processing the output of an ocean general circulation model; and (ii) show that heat waves increase will impact on many species that live in shallow waters and have reduced motility, and related economic activities. This information is made available also as a dataset of temperature threshold exceedance indexes that can be used in combination with biological information to produce risk assessment maps for target species or biomes across the whole Mediterranean Sea. As case studies we compared projected heat waves occurrence with thermotolerance thresholds of low motility organisms. Results suggest a deepening of the survival horizon for red coral (Corallium rubrum, a commercially exploited benthic species already subjected to heat-related mass mortality events) and coralligenous reefs as well as a reduction of suitable farming sites for the mussel Mythilus galloprovincialis. In recent years Mediterranean circalittoral ecosystems (coralligenous) have been severely and repeatedly impacted by marine heat waves. Our results support that equally deleterious events are expected in the near future also for other ecologically important habitats (e.g., seagrass meadows) and aquaculture activities (bivalvae), and point at the need for mitigation strategies.

The Marano-Grado Lagoon (MGL) is extensively contaminated by mercury (Hg) from local sources and long-term (500 years) tidally delivered inputs from the Idrija Hg mine (Slovenia) through Isonzo River suspended loads. Mercury-polluted coastal sites, often become sites of increased mercury methylation and act, in the long term, as secondary mercury sources for the Mediterranean Basin. Methylmercury (MeHg) produced upon Hg methylation bioaccumulates and biomagnifies in the trophic webs, and it is eventually transferred to humans via fish intake. We implemented a dynamic model released by US-EPA (WASP-Merc7) to the MGL (North Adriatic Sea, Italy) in order to assess the concentration of mercury species in water, sediment and particulate, and to quantify the mercury fluxes and budget within the lagoon itself and between the lagoon, the atmosphere and the Adriatic Sea. Furthermore, the model was used to simulate the mercury long-term dynamics to estimate the recovery time for Hg in lagoon sediment (about 600 years) and to explore future scenarios of climate change and rivers capping. Still several gaps exist in the knowledge on mercury species concentration and kinetics, the model results take also into account the major sources of uncertainty.

Scenarios are a useful tool to explore possible futures of social-ecological systems. The number of scenarios has increased dramatically over recent decades, with a large diversity in temporal and spatial scales, purposes, themes, development methods, and content. Scenario archetypes generically describe future developments and can be useful in meaningfully classifying scenarios, structuring and summarizing the overwhelming amount of information, and enabling scientific outputs to more effectively interface with decision-making frameworks. The Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) faced this challenge and used scenario archetypes in its assessment of future interactions between nature and society. We describe the use of scenario archetypes in the IPBES Regional Assessment of Europe and Central Asia. Six scenario archetypes for the region are described in terms of their driver assumptions and impacts on nature (including biodiversity) and its contributions to people (including ecosystem services): business-as-usual, economic optimism, regional competition, regional sustainability, global sustainable development, and inequality. The analysis shows that trade-offs between nature's contributions to people are projected under different scenario archetypes. However, the means of resolving these trade-offs depend on differing political and societal value judgements within each scenario archetype. Scenarios that include proactive decision making on environmental issues, environmental management approaches that support multifunctionality, and mainstreaming environmental issues across sectors, are generally more successful in mitigating trade-offs than isolated environmental policies. Furthermore, those scenario archetypes that focus on achieving a balanced supply of nature's contributions to people and that incorporate a diversity of values are estimated to achieve more policy goals and targets, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi targets. The scenario archetypes approach is shown to be helpful in supporting science-policy dialogue for proactive decision making that anticipates change, mitigates undesirable trade-offs, and fosters societal transformation in pursuit of sustainable development.

Habitat classifications provide guidelines for mapping and comparing marine resources across geographic regions. Calcareous bio-concretions and their associated biota have not been exhaustively categorized. Furthermore, for management and conservation purposes, species and habitat mapping is critical. Recently, several developments have occurred in the field of predictive habitat modeling, and multiple methods are available. In this study, we defined the habitats constituting northern Adriatic biogenic reefs and created a predictive habitat distribution model. We used an updated dataset of the epibenthic assemblages to define the habitats, which we verified using the fuzzy k-means (FKM) clustering method. Redundancy analysis was employed to model the relationships between the environmental descriptors and the FKM membership grades. Predictive modelling was carried out to map habitats across the basin. Habitat A (opportunistic macroalgae, encrusting Porifera, bioeroders) characterizes reefs closest to the coastline, which are affected by coastal currents and river inputs. Habitat B is distinguished by massive Porifera, erect Tunicata, and non-calcareous encrusting algae (Peyssonnelia spp.). Habitat C (non-articulated coralline, Polycitor adriaticus) is predicted in deeper areas. The onshore-offshore gradient explains the variability of the assemblages because of the influence of coastal freshwater, which is the main driver of nutrient dynamics. This model supports the interpretation of Habitat A and C as the extremes of a gradient that characterizes the epibenthic assemblages, while Habitat B demonstrates intermediate characteristics. Areas of transition are a natural feature of the marine environment and may include a mixture of habitats and species. The habitats proposed are easy to identify in the field, are related to different environmental features, and may be suitable for application in studies focused on other geographic areas. The habitat model outputs provide insight into the environmental drivers that control the distribution of the habitat and can be used to guide future research efforts and cost-effective management and conservation plans.

We propose an extension to the metacommunity (MC) concept and a novel operational methodology that has the potential to refine the analysis of MC structure at different hierarchical levels. We show that assemblages of species can also be seen as assemblages of abstract subregional habitat-related metacommunities (habMCs). This intrinsically fuzzy concept recognizes the existence of habMCs that are typically associated with given habitats, while allowing for the mixing and superposition of different habMCs in all sites and for boundaries among subregions that are neither spatially sharp nor temporally constant. The combination of fuzzy clustering and direct gradient analysis permits us to 1) objectively identify the number of habMCs that are present in a region as well as their spatial distributions and relative weights at different sites; 2) associate different subregions with different biological communities; and 3) quantitatively assess the affinities between habMCs and physical, morphological, biogeochemical, and environmental properties, thereby enabling an analysis of the roles and relative importance of various environmental parameters in shaping the spatial structure of a metacommunity. This concept and methodology offer the possibility of integrating the continuum and community unit concepts and of developing the concept of a habMC ecological niche. This approach also facilitates the practical application of the MC concept, which are not currently in common use. Applying these methods to macrophytobenthic and macrozoobenthic hard-substrate assemblages in the Venetian Lagoon, we identified a hierarchical organization of macrobenthic communities that associated different habMCs with different habitats. Our results demonstrate that different reference terms should be applied to different subregions to assess the ecological status of a waterbody and show that a combination of several environmental parameters describes the spatial heterogeneity of benthic communities much better than any single property can. Our results also emphasize the importance of considering heterogeneity and fuzziness when working in natural systems.

The understanding of fish communities' changes over the past centuries has important implications for conservation policy and marine resource management. However, reconstructing these changes is difficult because information on marine communities before the second half of the 20(th) century is, in most cases, anecdotal and merely qualitative. Therefore, historical qualitative records and modern quantitative data are not directly comparable, and their integration for long-term analyses is not straightforward. We developed a methodology that allows the coding of qualitative information provided by early naturalists into semi-quantitative information through an intercalibration with landing proportions. This approach allowed us to reconstruct and quantitatively analyze a 200-year-long time series of fish community structure indicators in the Northern Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea). Our analysis provides evidence of long-term changes in fish community structure, including the decline of Chondrichthyes, large-sized and late-maturing species. This work highlights the importance of broadening the time-frame through which we look at marine ecosystem changes and provides a methodology to exploit, in a quantitative framework, historical qualitative sources. To the purpose, naturalists' eyewitness accounts proved to be useful for extending the analysis on fish community back in the past, well before the onset of field-based monitoring programs.

The clam fishing and aquaculture system in the Venice Lagoon still appears insufficiently resilient to buffer external and internal perturbations, such as productivity fluctuations, unregulated fishing, and market related dynamics, despite the efforts of regional and local authorities to achieve the sustainable development. According to the System Approach Framework (SAF), based on previous studies and stakeholder interactions, we developed a model integrating ecological, social, and economic (ESE) aspects. We chose the aspects necessary to represent the essential dynamics of major ecological, social, and economic clam farming system components to project the consequences of implementing alternative management policies and to address the ecological and social carrying capacity. Results of the simulations suggest that a properly managed farming system can sustain an acceptable income and support the local community, while reducing negative environmental impacts, social conflicts, and consumer health risks and improving system resilience. The results highlight the importance of an interdisciplinary, participatory, and adaptive approach in planning the management of this important renewable resource.