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The objective of this study is to analyze the ability of students of the University Center for the Economic Administrative Sciences which forms part of the University of Guadalajara from different economic-administrative undergraduate programs, to solve distinct problems in the area of probability, applying a multiple-choice instrument aligned to the learning objectives via a qualitative-descriptive methodology. The study comprised a sample of 251 students from 14 different undergraduate degree programs who were enrolled in the same statistics course. Multivariate tests were conducted in order to identify any differences in performance related to undergraduate degree program and sex, while a RASCH model was applied to provide validity evidence for the assessment. The results show that the students do not have a good level of ability for solving conditional probability problems, which they confused with the formulation of independent event problems although they did show a satisfactory level of ability for solving other types of problems.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the test applied at the eighth Statistics II tournament to students from the University Center for Economic and Administrative Sciences of the University of Guadalajara, for the purpose of determining whether it promotes competitive learning among students. To achieve this, Item Response Theory (IRT) is used, specifically in the form of a three-parameter logistic model. The findings show that approximately 20% of the participating students performed at a level ranging from outstanding to satisfactory, while the rest had a performance that fell between regular and poor. The findings also indicate that participating students were motivated by academic competition and the opportunity to improve their skills in the area of statistics. Moreover, we concluded that the tournament's assessment instruments need to be substantially improved in terms of design and the content of the items.

En esta investigación se estudió la causalidad en el sentido unidireccional de Granger, desde el índice Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker hacia la volatilidad del mercado accionario chileno, la cual se modela por un procedimiento autorregresivo condicional. Se aplican tres pruebas de causalidad y, de manera complementaria, la prueba de bicorrelación cruzada. Los resultados indican que este índice causa la volatilidad del mercado con la mayoría de las pruebas aplicadas. Esto señala la potencial relevancia de contar con este nuevo indicador para los agentes que participan en los mercados financieros, entre ellos reguladores, compañías y corredores. Adicionalmente, los resultados son congruentes con la evidencia sobre la capacidad predictiva del índice sobre la volatilidad del precio del petróleo y otros índices

This study uses daily COVID-19 news series to determine their impact on financial market volatility. This paper assesses whether U.S. financial markets react differently to COVID-19 news than emerging markets and if such markets are impacted differently by country-specific and global news. To detect the spillover effects from news on market volatility, a time-varying DCC-GARCH model was applied. The results suggest that the U.S. and emerging markets are affected differently by pandemic news, global series have a stronger impact on emerging markets than country-specific ones, and misleading information plays a significant role in financial market volatility, especially for the U.S.

The relationship between three different groups of COVID-19 news series and stock market volatility for several Latin American countries and the U.S. are analyzed. To confirm the relationship between these series, a maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) was applied to determine the specific periods wherein each pair of series is significantly correlated. To determine if the news series cause Latin American stock markets’ volatility, a one-sided Granger causality test based on transfer entropy (GC-TE) was applied. The results confirm that the U.S. and Latin American stock markets react differently to COVID-19 news. Some of the most statistically significant results were obtained from the reporting case index (RCI), A-COVID index, and uncertainty index, in that order, which are statistically significant for the majority of Latin American stock markets. Altogether, the results suggest these COVID-19 news indices could be used to forecast stock market volatility in the U.S. and Latin America.

This work applies a test that detects dependence between pairs of variables. The kind of dependence is a non-linear one, and the test is known as cross-bicorrelation, which is associated with Brooks and Hinich [1]. We study dependence periods between U.S. Standard and Poor's 500 (SP500), used as a benchmark, and six Latin American stock market indexes: Mexico (BMV), Brazil (BOVESPA), Chile (IPSA), Colombia (COLCAP), Peru (IGBVL) and Argentina (MERVAL). We have found windows of nonlinear dependence and comovement between the SP500 and the Latin American stock markets, some of which coincide with periods of crisis, leading to an interpretation of a possible contagion or interdependence.

This paper analyzes the time‐varying causality between government bond and oil returns of the United States over the monthly period of 1859:10 to 2019:03, that is, the longest possible span of historical data, starting from the beginning of the modern era of the petroleum industry. While the standard constant parameter causality test fails to pick up any evidence of causality, the time‐varying framework shows evidence of bi‐directional spillovers over the entire sample period. The results are robust to the inclusion of stock returns as a control variable in the model. We also detect evidence of time‐varying causality‐in‐volatility between sovereign bond and oil markets, as well as spillovers in returns and volatility from the oil market to corporate bonds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

En este trabajo se analiza la elección de alternativas en las organizaciones desde el punto de vista normativo y formal, y desde la perspectiva de los métodos cuantitativos. Se examina el proceso racional de la toma de decisiones donde se enfatiza el aspecto de la estructuración de un problema y el análisis del mismo, más que la implementación y evaluación de los resultados. Se analizan los aspectos metodológicos del enfoque cuantitativo y se compara con el enfoque cualitativo, resaltando sus ventajas y desventajas en el ámbito de las organizaciones. En este sentido, se abordan las herramientas más populares de los métodos cuantitativos, tales como la programación lineal y los modelos probabilistas, en cuanto son factores decisorios en las organizaciones, es decir, permiten elegir de manera óptima la solución de un problema, tomando en consideración todos los factores relevantes del mismo. Se mencionan las áreas de aplicación más importantes de las distintas herramientas y sus limitaciones teóricas y prácticas.

En el presente trabajo se analiza la literatura referente a la relación entre la inversión extranjera directa y el medio ambiente, en distintos aspectos; asimismo se revisan algunos instrumentos de política ambiental que los gobiernos implementan para coordinar de manera integral el desarrollo económico. Finalmente, se estudia lo que resulta de la aplicación de tales controles ambientales en el contexto de la ied, a través de modelos teóricos contemporáneos.

Este trabajo trata de determinar, por medio de estadística descriptiva e inferencial, si la sección de matemáticas de la prueba de aptitud académica inci- de en el rendimiento matemático en los estudiantes de nuevo ingreso de la universidad. Paralelamente se analizaron las diferencias de género subyacente en el rendimiento matemático de cada uno de los instrumentos de medición examinados, junto con otros factores demográficos (el estado civil, situación laboral y tipo de institución de procedencia).Para ello, se contó con una población de 2200 estudiantes que fueron aceptados en el ciclo 2011A. Se realizó una taxonomía del estudiante aceptado en la universidad y se correlacionó con una prueba diagnóstico que contiene parte de la sección de matemáticas de la prueba de aptitud académica. No se encontraron variables que pudieran esta- blecer una correlación en su rendimiento. Se concluye que existe otro tipo de variables socioeconómicas o sociohistóricas que pudieran permitir determinar el rendimiento en matemáticas del estudiante.

El siguiente documento identifica episodios de dependencia no-lineal en el tipo de cambio mexicano (peso mexicano/dólar norteamericano), entre enero de 1995 y septiembre de 2010. Para ello se utiliza la metodología Hinich Portmanteau, la cual utiliza una prueba de alta frecuencia para detectar episodios de dependencia no lineal, por medio de funciones ventana. Se proporciona una explicación de los sucesos económicos y políticos que pudieron haber provocado que el tipo de cambio tuviera un comportamiento no lineal. La detección de episodios no lineales puede ayudar a explicar la dificultad para pronosticar este tipo de series.

The purpose of this article is to study the unidirectional causality from the Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker (EMV-ID), towards the volatility of five of the most important Latin American stock and Exchange markets. For this, volatility is captured through the DCC-GARCH t-Copula method. In addition, the time-varying Granger multivariate causality test (TV-GC) and the classical Granger causality test (GC) are applied. It is found that, with both methodologies, EMV-ID causes both series, which highlights the importance of having this new indicator for the analysis of the different agents involved in financial markets, among them, regulators, companies and traders in particular. Our results are consistent with the evidence of other research findings about the predictive power of the EMV-ID index on oil price volatility and some European equity markets, and the positive link between EMV-ID and the time-varying of return connectedness across gold, crude oil, world equities, currencies and bonds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]