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The election may have been horrific for Democrats, but the results were entirely within the bounds of this political moment. This may be the most misunderstood election in modern American [...]

But in the three elections before that, candidates split the most competitive battlegrounds. Whether you are looking at three or 300 polls in each of the swing states, the data [...]

Editor-in-Chief Jeff Dufour and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter founder Charlie Cook discuss the early vote returns. Editor-in-Chief Jeff Dufour and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter founder Charlie [...]

There's no such thing as a landslide in our current political era. Which means a lot of options are on the table. As we find ourselves in yet another cliffhanger [...]

Polls are moving subtly yet perceptibly toward Trump. The voters Harris most needs are the ones who remain skeptical of her positions in 2019. Many Democrats have lived in an [...]

Hotline editor Kirk Bado and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter founder Charlie Cook break down the election with less than a month to go. In this bonus episode adapted [...]

They're likely not choosing between one of the two candidates; they're choosing between one candidate or not voting at all. It would be hard to have more political uncertainty than [...]

Since she assumed the campaign, Harris has outplayed Trump despite holding worse cards. We have a presidential election with seven states so close that they may go days past the [...]

Still, each party should be glad they're in a 50-50 race, and not in a worse situation. It is now becoming abundantly clear that the presidential race is so close [...]

NJ editor-in-chief Jeff Dufour and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter founder Charlie Cook discuss the potential electoral pathways. In this bonus episode adapted from National Journals webinar series 'Cook [...]

The vice president continues to hit her marks, while Trump's behavior seems to grow more erratic. With Election Day 50 days away and what is likely to be the only [...]

Hotline editor Kirk A. Bado and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter founder Charlie Cook check in on the presidential election. Hotline editor Kirk A. Bado and Cook Political Report [...]

The cure for political nihilism:a coin-flip of an election. We'd been getting used to 'this won't matter' campaigns'as in, key events like presidential debates and party conventions rarely moved the [...]

This era of narrow margins has made the unusual feel commonplace. There may well be a lot of people losing their fingernails over the next 64 days. Speaking for myself, [...]

It's unlikely that Democrats' run of good fortune will last until voting begins. Over the 29 days since President Biden announced he would not seek reelection, things could have hardly [...]

With the recalibrated presidential race looking tighter, the winner will be whoever frames themselves as the fresh new candidate. As tumultuous as this presidential campaign has been, one can only [...]

Kamala Harris has reset the playing field, but the fundamentals remain constant. As of the time when this column is written, Vice PresidentKamala Harris has not yet indicated her choice [...]

The poll numbers since Harris replaced Biden as the presumptive nominee haven't moved a great deal, but they don't tell the whole story. It's hard not to miss the jubilation [...]

The fundamentals of the race still haven't changed. But Harris has an opportunity to refocus the race as a referendum on Trump. A week ago, the American people were resigned [...]

The assassination attempt against Trump, plus Trump's selection of J.D. Vance as his running mate, has Democrats fearing the worst. Just as it seemed that things could not get any [...]

The NATO meetings, followed closely by the Republican convention, may buy the president a precious few days'and shine a light on his foreign policy expertise. As if all of the [...]

Hotline editor Kirk Bado and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter founder Charlie Cook discuss the ramifications of last week's debate. In this bonus episode adapted from National Journals webinar [...]

Could an allegiance to President Biden doom Democrats to another four years of Trump? Before last Thursday's debate, there was good reason to doubt President Biden's chances of winning the [...]

Given how close the presidential race is, it won't take much to move the needle. But that typically means a major gaffe or a legendary one-liner. You'd have to have [...]

Nine states where the drama looks to be highest this fall. In just 20 weeks (141 days), a deeply conflicted American electorate will vote, most of them for either President [...]

Thirty-four percent of respondents approved of former President Trump's tenure on his way out the door. Now, 55 percent say his administration was a success. The https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/28/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-matchup/index.html showing 55 percent [...]

Amature race' like this year's presidential contest isn't easily shifted in either direction. Before the beginning of our current 'Trump era' of American politics, there was no precedent for our [...]

Editor-in-Chief Jeff Dufour and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter founder Charlie Cook discuss the latest swing-state polling. In this bonus episode adapted from National Journals webinar series 'Cook Catch [...]

After two cycles of record turnout, persuadable voters feel alienated by their choices. Not participating is another choice. How many voters are really trying to decide between President Biden and [...]

A string of recent surveys should worry the president. Democrats with a predisposition to nightmares or a history of insomnia might not want to spend too much time focusing on [...]

Voters feel cross-pressured between Trump and Biden as party allegiances continue to get scrambled. Human behavior always will have some degree of uncertainty. Nowhere is that more clear than with [...]

Will swing voters put Trump's ethics and personal failings aside in service of policies they remember fondly? It is dizzying to think how much things have changed in just over [...]

Editor in Chief Jeff Dufour and Cook Political Report's Charlie Cook break down the struggles faced by House leadership in this Congress. In this bonus episode adapted from National Journals [...]

If we don't learn the lessons of the 2016 election, we surely risk repeating them. It's pretty clear that President Biden's chances of getting reelected are better than they were [...]

Polling in the seven swing states is a much more critical barometer. There, the president still trails in five of them. There is very little in American politics that is [...]

Vast policy differences lie between a bare majority and a big [...]

Republicans are primed to retake the Senate, and Trump is gaining momentum to reoccupy the White House. In many past presidential elections, the term 'firewall' was used to describe 'must-win'' [...]

With every passing poll, this campaign looks more like a typical referendum on the incumbent. By just about any rational and objective standard, the political challenges facing former President Trump [...]

Neither state is a swing state. But the 2nd Congressional District in both states are swing districts... and they could be determinative. It's easy to dismiss the Census results as [...]

Neither party can win an overwhelming victory in this political environment. They shouldn't act like it. The longer I am around politics the more I am perplexed by decisions made [...]

Remember, Biden may need to win the popular vote by as many as 5 or 6 points to prevail in the Electoral College. He's nowhere close. This is the week [...]

HotlineÃá editor Kirk Bado andÃáCook Political Report with Amy Walter founder Charlie Cook discuss recent swing-state polling. Hotline editor Kirk Bado and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter founder Charlie [...]

As the ASMC PPBE Reform Task Force does its work, we hear both from people in favor of PPBE reform and from people opposed. This isn't a surprise. Any long-established [...]

Two consumer-confidence measures due this week are expected to show a rosier picture for the fourth month in a row. It hasn't benefited Biden's approval numbers yet. Many seem convinced [...]

Editor-in-Chief Jeff Dufour and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter founder Charlie Cook preview the South Carolina primary. National Journal Editor-in-Chief Jeff Dufour and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter [...]

Long before Robert Hur released his report, polls have been sounding alarm bells over the president's age and health. Democrats who were not already apprehensive about President Biden's reelection prospects [...]

Apart from one positive Quinnipiac poll, the president has yet to see any sort of bounce from the recent economic tailwinds. Two weeks ago, (/s/723957/bidens-moment-of-truth-on-the-economy-is-drawing-near/) this column pointed to strikingly [...]

A booming economy and braking inflation have buoyed consumer confidence. But the president's approvals remain at record lows. This (/s/723957/bidens-moment-of-truth-on-the-economy-is-drawing-near/) column last week suggested that a moment of truth may [...]

Inflation is easing'and consumer confidence is improving along with it. Will the president's numbers rebound as well? The race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination could be in the rearview [...]