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We examine the impact of transparency on the convenience yield of AAA-rated asset-backed security (ABS) tranches. AAA tranches of ABS are commonly held by investors to manage financial liquidity and therefore enjoy a price premium beyond what is determined solely by the expected monetary payoff (i.e., convenience yield). The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires ABS issuers to provide monthly disclosures about the performance of the underlying individual loans for ABS issued after November 23, 2016 to improve transparency. We document that AAA tranches of ABS experience a significant increase in price volatility after the loan-level disclosure mandate. As a result, the use of these tranches as collateral for short-term funding and their convenience yield decrease significantly after the increased disclosure. Our collective evidence highlights an important unintended consequence of increased transparency in the ABS market; it diminishes the pledgeability of long-term safe assets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The government budget constraint ties the market value of government debt to the expected present discounted value of fiscal surpluses. We find evidence that U.S. Treasury investors fail to impose this no‐arbitrage restriction in the United States. Both cyclical and long‐run dynamics of tax revenues and government spending make the surplus claim risky. In a realistic asset pricing model, this risk in surpluses creates a large gap between the market value of debt and its fundamental value, the PDV of surpluses, suggesting that U.S. Treasuries may be overpriced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of papers have dealt with commodity financialization finding strong evidence for its existence and its effect on commodity prices and volatility. We chose convenience yield (CY) to study the effect of commodity financialization based on the theory of storage and on the argument that CY resembles a call option. Using quarterly data in the period 1995–2018, on soybeans stocks, cash and futures prices, a dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag with Exogenous model is estimated to measure the effects of independent variables from both the financial and commodity markets on CY. The evidence reveals that financial markets volatility along macroeconomic global variables affect soybeans CY giving support to the existence of commodity financialization. Besides, we find a statistically significant and negative relation between volatility index and CY. Support for this evidence rests on the theory of storage, Real Option Analysis, and behavioral finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We find strong empirical evidence that the liquidity yield on government bonds in combination with standard economic fundamentals can well account for nominal exchange rate movements. We find impressive evidence that changes in the liquidity yield are significant in explaining exchange rate changes for all the G10 countries, and we stress that the US dollar is not special in this relationship. We show how these relationships arise out of a canonical two-country New Keynesian model with liquidity returns. Additionally, we find a role for sovereign default risk and currency swap market frictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Questions as to why differences in momentum and reversal patterns seem to emerge in commodity futures compared with spot markets, and how these patterns can be explained, remain unanswered. To investigate these questions, I examine 23 commodities over a period of 60 years. I first show that including the net convenience yield in the definition of commodity spot returns reconciles the differences in the results for commodity spot and futures markets. Both commodity futures and spot markets exhibit quantitatively consistent momentum and reversal effects. An initial momentum effect is followed by a reversal effect and then another momentum effect. These observed patterns in commodities can be jointly explained by a combination of traditional asset pricing factors and a basis factor related to the net convenience yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper proposes long-run estimates of ex ante real interest rates in Switzerland and other developed economies, and it describes their relative evolution. Our results highlight the decline in—and convergence of—global real interest rates that has unfolded over the last three decades for all maturities. While Swiss yields stand out as being particularly low and stable from a historical perspective, we find that Swiss interest rates have fallen less than in many other countries during the last decade. We then examine whether the reduction in the interest differential is related to a lower attractiveness of the Swiss franc. Focusing on the difference of Swiss minus German real government bonds yields, we find a significant increase in expected real depreciation of the Swiss franc and a somewhat lower convenience yield for Swiss bonds—the convenience yield reflecting the non-pecuniary value that investors impute to the liquidity of a given bond. In contrast, the safety premium in favor of the Swiss franc increased and therefore cannot explain the smaller decline in real interest rates in Switzerland. The last part of the paper analyzes the negative convenience yield on Swiss government bonds and its recent decline. We show that both the purchase of government bonds by foreign central banks and foreign exchange interventions by the Swiss National Bank may have contributed to this decline by reducing the relative supply of foreign versus domestic government bonds.

In this paper, we show that financial investments dilute the relationship between convenience yields (a proxy for fundamentals) and commodity prices. On average, the explanatory power of convenience yields on the movements of commodity prices decreased from 63% to 33% after 2004, when institutional investors rapidly started building their positions in commodity futures. We develop a model of the commodity market with financial investments and test the model predictions using futures prices of 21 US‐traded commodities and index traders' positions on 12 agricultural commodities. Because of correlated financial demands for different commodity futures, we identify comovements in spot prices for fundamentally independent commodities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The main theory governing the valuation of futures contracts is the Storage Theory, in which the concept of Convenience Yield is the most important factor involved in contract pricing. Convenience Yield is a factor that complicates the process of valuing futures contracts. Trying to determine the best trading position in futures contracts with different underlying assets and with different maturities is the goal of this article. In this article, using the theory of storage and the concept of welfare fruits and using the method of dynamic random control, a model for selecting the optimal trading position in futures contracts of consumer goods in both single and double goods is presented. Methodology: In this article, the theory of storage and the concept of Convenience Yield are used. Also, by using the dynamic stochastic control method, a model for choosing the optimal trading position in the futures contracts of consumer goods is expressed in two modes of single commodity and dual commodity. Findings: The results of the implementation of the model in the Iranian Commodity Exchange market show that the model in the single commodity mode has been able to fully identify the correct trading position and in the two commodity mode has been 91.7% successful. Originality/Value: Presenting a model to determine the optimal trading position based on Storage Theory and the existence of two stochastic factors of Convenience Yield and stock price using dynamic stochastic control method in single and multi-commodity mode in a specific investment horizon on consumer goods is the most important innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes long-run estimates of ex ante real interest rates in Switzerland and other developed economies, and it describes their relative evolution. Our results highlight the decline in—and convergence of—global real interest rates that has unfolded over the last three decades for all maturities. While Swiss yields stand out as being particularly low and stable from a historical perspective, we find that Swiss interest rates have fallen less than in many other countries during the last decade. We then examine whether the reduction in the interest differential is related to a lower attractiveness of the Swiss franc. Focusing on the difference of Swiss minus German real government bonds yields, we find a significant increase in expected real depreciation of the Swiss franc and a somewhat lower convenience yield for Swiss bonds—the convenience yield reflecting the non-pecuniary value that investors impute to the liquidity of a given bond. In contrast, the safety premium in favor of the Swiss franc increased and therefore cannot explain the smaller decline in real interest rates in Switzerland. The last part of the paper analyzes the negative convenience yield on Swiss government bonds and its recent decline. We show that both the purchase of government bonds by foreign central banks and foreign exchange interventions by the Swiss National Bank may have contributed to this decline by reducing the relative supply of foreign versus domestic government bonds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) are consequential derivatives for risk hedging in the shipping market. This paper presents the first empirical study of convenience yield in the shipping market with a sample of C3 (Tubarao to Qingdao) and C5 (Western Australia to Qingdao) FFAs from 2013 to 2023. First, single-factor and two-factor models are constructed to analyze the random behavior of freight rates in the shipping market, and the existence of convenience yield is empirically tested. The results provide evidence of the existence of convenience yield in the shipping market, with its stochastic variation being a critical factor in shaping the term structure characteristics of FFAs. Second, an ARMAX model is developed for the freight rate index, and the predictive role of the estimated convenience yield and its difference in spot freight rates is analyzed by operating the two-factor model. The findings reveal a significant predictive effect of convenience yield and its difference on spot freight rates. Last but not least, this study emphasizes the importance of convenience yield as a crucial parameter in the shipping market, particularly regarding the transportation of bulk commodities. Changes in the supply and demand of bulk commodities directly impact the fluctuations in shipping market capacity and convenience yield. This study delivers a new explanatory perspective for price formation in the shipping market and is highly valuable for risk management in this sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effects of the spot underlying commodity price, stochastic convenience yield, interest rate and counterparty credit risk on the pricing of the commodity-linked bonds. The stochastic factors or state variables in the model are the spot price of the underlying commodity follows geometrical Brownian motion process with a stochastic drift, the net convenience yield and the short-term interest rate are formulated as a mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic process and the value of the firm issuing the bonds follows a geometrical Brownian motion process. Furthermore, we develop the two- and three-factor(I, II) pricing models for valuing the commodity-linked bonds. Closed-form pricing formulas of the commodity-linked bonds are derived based on the Mellin transform techniques, which are simply provided with standard (bivariate) normal cumulative distribution function so that the pricing and hedging of the commodity-linked bonds can be computed very accurately and rapidly. At last, numerical analysis compares the results of this four pricing models with realistic parameter values and demonstrates how the spot underlying commodity price, convenience yield, interest rate and counterparty credit risk affect the values of the commodity-linked bonds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the relation between commodity spot, forward prices, and convenience yield under incomplete markets. Since production is a necessary process for commodity markets, we include firms that use inputs and produce outputs in our model. Thus, we show a financial pricing model of spot and forward commodity in an explicit fashion with production under incomplete markets. One of the most important results of this paper is the difference between commodity spot and forward equilibrium price can be explained by the discounted shadow price of storage constraint minus the discounted marginal storage cost and it can be interpreted as the net convenience yield in the existing literature. Here the discounted factor is affected by the incompleteness of the markets. We prove the generic existence of the equilibrium and thus the obtained spot forward price relation is the equilibrium price formula. We also derive the firm's optimal production plan and trading strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the liberalization of electricity markets, electricity prices are more volatile and expansion in electricity derivatives trading occurs. Indeed, a well-known feature of electricity prices concerns its high volatility. For this reason, operators use power futures to hedge against unexpected risk deriving from adverse fluctuations of spot prices within the planned delivering period. Indeed, futures contracts permit to fix the price of electricity in advance for the use in the scheduled period. Our paper is devoted specifically to the Italian electricity market. In this respect, we examine empirical data from IDEX, the Energy Derivatives part of the Italian derivatives market IDEM, administered by "Borsa Italiana." We finally survey the possible connections concerning futures and spot prices and, as a consequence, we deduce information about important indicators whereof the ex-post risk premium and the net convenience yield. For this purpose, we use several regression techniques to determine suitable explanatory variables inherent the Italian market for the ex-post risk premium and the net convenience yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using autoregressive distributed lag modeling and structural break testing, we explore the drivers of the oil price spread between West Texas Intermediate and Brent in a data set from 1995 to 2019. We find a major structural break in December 2010 and minor breaks in 2005 and 2012. Important spread determinants are the convenience yield, as a proxy for crude oil inventories, the trading activity in crude oil paper markets, shipping costs, as well as the stock market development in the United States and Europe. After the break in 2010, the paper market activity, open interest, and shipping costs have become more important spread drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crude oil commercial stocks are one of the main components of the oil market, and its fluctuations are important in the analysis of the oil market. The purpose of this study is to investigate the unprecedented accumulation of crude oil commercial stocks according to structural shocks and convenience yield, since the onset of crude oil prices decline. In this study, the effect of structural shocks on fluctuations of crude oil commercial stocks was analyzed in the form of a structural vector auto regression model (SVAR) over the period from 2006 to 2016. Also, for the first time, convenience yield is calculated using the inverse problem method. This paper has two innovations. First, it is the first time that convenience yield is calculated in the oil market using the inverse problem method. Second, for the first time, the dynamics of crude oil commercial stocks are analyzed expanding Killian’s SVAR Model (2009).The results show that from late 2014 onwards, mostly crude oil supply shocks and crude oil inventory demand shocks have contributed to oil commercial accumulation. Also results show that WTI futures term structure (spread) has been in contango based on the negative net convenience yield since October 2014 and has led to accumulating more crude oil commercial stocks with speculative purposes.

Globalisation and financial liberalisation have made financial markets more correlated and connected. In this context, it has become extremely important to understand the connectedness and correlation among different financial markets and commodities. This paper attempts to extend applicable empirical studies by examining the connectedness between volatilities of commodity convenience yields and zero-coupon inflation swap rates. We conduct our study by using both the spillover index methodology provided by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012) as well as Barunik and Krehlik's (2018) methodology to decompose the index to its frequencies for short-, medium and long-term dynamics. Although, empirical results based on Diebold and Yilmaz's (2012) methodology show that high total connectedness exists between the variables for the whole time period, our results based on Barunik and Krehlik's (2018) approach shows that this connectedness exists only in the long-term. The results also indicate that the connectedness dynamics change when the effect of cross-correlations is considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the relationships of commodity spot and futures prices with convenience yield. Convenience yield is received by the owner of a spot commodity but not by the owner of the right to the commodity (e.g., futures). This is the first study to explicitly model commodity spot and futures prices using firms and speculators (i.e., supply and demand of a commodity). We found that spot and futures prices are related to convenience yield. Based on this we were able to identify the structure of convenience yield, which can be decomposed into two components: yield and cost. When speculators are introduced, the spot commodity price is the discounted futures price minus the present value of the marginal storage cost plus the convenience yield on the spot storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The time-varying differential between physical and derivatives freight rates is examined. • The physical freight rates tend to be statistically at a premium to Forward Freight Rates. • Differential is related to the market conditions, vessel specific factors and contractual terms. • The premium of physical freight over forward rates is due to convenience of access to transport. Abstract Physical time-charters (TC) and Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) represent two hedging approaches that differ in terms of risks and physical access to transportation. We investigate the determinants of the time-varying TC-FFA freight rate differential in the dry bulk market. We find that TC and FFA prices are co-integrated but TC rates are generally priced higher than FFAs. The differential is explained by the level and slope of the term structure, a measure of economic condition and default risk as well as vessel specifications and contractual terms. Finally, the TC-FFA differential is related to default risk premium and the potential convenience yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We focus on an information-based model with noisy anticipation motivated by asset valuation problem. Precisely, the price of an asset is computed from the expectation of the totality of discounted future dividend, conditioned on the market filtration generated by (1) the current and past value of dividend, and (2) a partial information of the future cash flow stream. As a result, we obtained a new solution method to compute a generalized asset pricing formula. Moreover, under a certain condition, the formula can be reduced to a simple form, a linear combination between dividend and noisy anticipation. The approach can be applied to approximate a reasonable price of the commodities even without knowing the actual demand and supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of inventories in refiners' gasoline production and develops a structural model of the relationship between crude oil prices and inventories. Using data on inventories and prices of oil futures, I show that convenience yields decrease at a diminishing rate as inventories increase, consistent with the theory of storage. In addition to exhibiting seasonal and procyclical behaviors, I show that the historical convenience yield averages about 18 percent of the oil price from March 1989 to November 2014. Although some have argued that a breakdown of the relationship between crude oil inventories and prices following increased financial investors' participation after 2004 was evidence of a speculative effect, I find that the proposed price-inventory relationship is stable over time. The empirical evidence indicates that crude oil prices remained tied to oil-market fundamentals such as inventories, suggesting that the contribution of financial investors' activities was weak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]