Search

Using the high spatiotemporal resolution (2 km-and-10 min) data from the Advanced Himawari Imager onboard the Himawari-8 satellite, this study documents the fine-scale characteristics of daytime cloud regimes (CRs) over coastal South China during the pre-summer rainy season (April–June). Six CRs (CR1–CR6) are identified based on the joint frequency distribution of cloud top brightness temperature and cloud optical thickness, namely, the optically thin-to-moderate cloud mixture, optically thin warm clouds with cirrus, optically thick warm clouds, weak convective cloud mixture, strong convective clouds, and extreme, deep convective clouds. The optically thick warm clouds are the major CR during April and May, with higher frequencies over land, especially along the urban agglomeration, rather than the offshore which may be an indicator of the higher aerosol concentrations being a contributing factor over the cities. The CRs with weak convective cloud mixtures and strong convective clouds appear more frequently over the land, while the two CRs with optically thinner clouds occur mainly offshore. Synoptic flow patterns (SPs) are objectively identified and examined focusing on those favoring the two major rain-producing CRs (CR5 and CR6) and the highly reflective CR with optically thick warm clouds (CR3). The two SPs favoring CR5 and CR6 are characterized by abundant moisture with low-level jets after monsoon onset, and a northwest high-southeast low pattern with strong dynamic convergence along the coastline, respectively. The non-convective CR3 with high reflectance is related to a SP that features the western North Pacific subtropical high extending more westward, leading to a moderate moisture supply and a wide range of convective available potential energy, but also, large convective inhibition.

Convective inhibition (CIN) is one of the parameters used by forecasters to determine the inflow layer of a convective storm, but little work has examined the best way to compute CIN. One decision that must be made is whether to lift parcels following a pseudoadiabat (removing hydrometeors as the parcel ascends) or reversible moist adiabat (retaining hydrometeors). To determine which option is best, idealized simulations of ordinary convection are examined using a variety of base states with different reversible CIN values for parcels originating in the lowest 500 m. Parcel trajectories suggest that ascent over the lowest few kilometers, where CIN is typically accumulated, is best conceptualized as a reversible moist adiabatic process instead of a pseudoadiabatic process. Most inflow layers do not contain parcels with substantial reversible CIN, despite these parcels possessing ample convective available potential energy and minimal pseudoadiabatic CIN. If a stronger initiation method is used, or hydrometeor loading is ignored, simulations can ingest more parcels with large amounts of reversible CIN. These results suggest that reversible CIN, not pseudoadiabatic CIN, is the physically relevant way to compute CIN and that forecasters may benefit from examining reversible CIN instead of pseudoadiabatic CIN when determining the inflow layer.

The current work is an attempt to study various parameters that influence the occurrence of severe convective activity over two regions, Andaman and Nicobar islands (AND) and Lakshadweep (LAK). k index (KI), total totals index (TTI), Modified K-index (MODKI), Modified total totals index (MODTTI), total precipitable water (TPW), humidity index (HI), deep convective index (DCI), lifted index (LI), convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) are the parameters used in this analysis. ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2) reanalysis daily datasets were utilized to study the severe convective activities during 2019. The modified indices of KI and TTI parameters clearly indicated the good chances for occurrence of severe convective systems in monsoon season. The spatial distributions clearly indicated the strong impact of south westerly winds on these islands which lead to the occurrences of high rainfall activity on these islands. The westerly wind values (7 to 9 m/s) are higher over LAK region than AND region (4 to 8 m/s). High sea level pressure (SLP) values help the intensification of south-westerly winds that lead to severe rainfall over islands. The sea surface temperature (SST) values 30 to 30.5 °C were observed over AND and LAK regions. AND region received good rainfall in winter and monsoon season, whereas LAK region receives higher rainfall in monsoon and post-monsoon season. We may infer from this analysis that LAK region has more convection occurrences than AND region. The WRF model prediction was found to be accurate with ERA5 reanalysis data. The WRF model was useful in predicting the severe convective activities prior to their occurrence.

[EN] Abstract. The ability of two downscaling experiments to correctly simulate thermodynamic conditions over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) is compared in this paper. To do so, three parameters used to evaluate the unstable conditions in the atmosphere are evaluated: the total totals index (TT), convective available potential energy (CAPE), and convective inhibition (CIN). The Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model is used for the simulations. The N experiment is driven by ERA-Interim’s initial and boundary conditions. The D experiment has the same configuration as N, but the 3DVAR data assimilation step is additionally run at 00:00, 06:00, 12:00, and 18:00 UTC. Eight radiosondes are available over the IP, and the vertical temperature and moisture profiles from the radiosondes provided by the University of Wyoming and the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) were used to calculate three parameters commonly used to represent atmospheric instability by our own methodology using the R package aiRthermo. According to the validation, the correlation, standard deviation (SD), and root mean squared error (RMSE) obtained by the D experiment for all the variables at most of the stations are better than those for N. The different methods produce small discrepancies between the values for TT, but these are larger for CAPE and CIN due to the dependency of these quantities on the initial conditions assumed for the calculation of a lifted air parcel. Similar results arise from the seasonal analysis concerning both WRF experiments: N tends to overestimate or underestimate (depending on the parameter) the variability of the reference values of the parameters, but D is able to capture it in most of the seasons. In general, D is able to produce more reliable results due to the more realistic values of dew point temperature and virtual temperature profiles over the IP. The heterogeneity of the studied variables is highlighted in the mean maps over the IP. According to those for D, the unstable air masses are found along the entire Atlantic coast during winter, but in summer they are located particularly over the Mediterranean coast. The convective inhibition is more extended towards inland at 00:00 UTC in those areas. However, high values are also observed near the southeastern corner of the IP (near Murcia) at 12:00 UTC. Finally, no linear relationship between TT, CAPE, or CIN was found, and consequently, CAPE and CIN should be preferred for the study of the instability of the atmosphere as more atmospheric layers are employed during their calculation than for the TT index. This research has been supported by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) (grant no. CGL2016-76561-R) and the University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU) (grant no. GIU 20/008). Santos J. González-Rojí was further supported by the Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR) and by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) (FPI predoctoral research grant no. BES-2014-069977) during his PhD.

Squall lines dominate rainfall in the West African Sahel, and evidence suggests they have increased in intensity over recent decades. Stronger wind shear may be a key driver of this trend and could continue to strengthen with climate change. However, global numerical models struggle to capture the role of shear for organised convection, making predictions of changing rainfall intensities in the Sahel uncertain. To investigate the impact of recent and possible future environmental changes, and to isolate thermodynamic effects from shear effects, idealised squall line simulations were initialised with a profile representative of the present day: this profile was then modified using trends from reanalyses and climate projections. Increased shear led to increased storm intensity and rainfall, but the effects of the thermodynamic changes dominated the effects from shear. Simulations initiated with future profiles produced shorter‐lived storms, likely due to increased convective inhibition and the absence of large‐scale convergence or synoptic variability in the idealised model. A theoretical model based on the relative inflow of convectively unstable air and moisture was found to predict bulk characteristics of the storms accurately, including mean rain rates and area‐averaged maximum vertical velocities, explaining the role of shear. However, the model is not a prognostic tool as rainfall is dependent on the storm speed, which remains a free parameter. The study shows the importance of shear to long‐term rainfall trends and highlights the need for climate models to include effects of shear to capture changes in extreme rainfall.

Topography and orography are two physical factors which produce high impact rainfall over the North-eastern part of Bangladesh. To predict the orographic rainfall of 29 March 2017 over Sylhet, Bangladesh an attempt has been performed using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The model has been run in a single domain of 10 km horizontal resolution for 48-h and 72-h using six hourly global final datasets from 0000 UTC of each initial day of the event as initial and lateral boundary conditions with NSSL 2-moment microphysics scheme, Kain–Fritsch cumulous scheme and Yonsei University Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) scheme. The model outputs such as sea level pressure, wind flow, vorticity, wind shear, humidity, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Convective Inhibition, Lifted Index, K-index, Total Total Index and rainfall have been analyzed. The model predicted weather parameters were visualized by Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) software and validated with observed data of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMRWF) data. The analysis determines that the CAPE of magnitude 800- 1000 JKg-1, positive vorticity of (6-10) ×10-5s-1 and relative humidity of 80-100% up to 500-400 hPa levels are accountable for the happening of the orographic extreme rainfall and other parameters are compatible with the observed or theoretical values. This study indicates that the model with an appropriate model set up is capable to predict the orographic precipitation realistically well and can be used for upcoming events. Journal of Engineering Science 11(2), 2020, 61-73

The Congo Basin situated in equatorial Africa is home to the second largest rainforest on the globe and plays an important role in the Earth’s climate system. For instance, the Congo is one of the most convective regions in the world and enhances the tropical large-scale circulation. Although tropical convection is crucial for rainfall and the sustenance of the rainforest, the most intense thunderstorms do not necessarily produce the largest amounts of rainfall over equatorial Africa. Aiming to better understand the decreasing rainfall trend over the Congo, trends in thunderstorm intensity from 1983 to 2018 are analyzed in this paper using the Galvez-Davison index (GDI), i.e., a thermodynamic index used to measure thunderstorm potential. Consistent with previous studies, thunderstorm activity increased during all seasons over the Congo. The GDI suggests that the increasing trends in thunderstorm activity are attributable to an increase in hydrostatic instability. More specifically, the GDI shows that (1) an increase of cold troughs at 500 hPa, (2) an increase in the temperature gradient between 700 and 950 hPa, and (3) a decrease of the equivalent potential temperature ( $${\theta }_{e}$$ ) gradient with height collectively act to promote taller, more intense thunderstorms. This study concludes by proposing feedback mechanisms explaining the intensification of thunderstorms. The mechanisms highlight the cooling and moistening of the mid-troposphere, drying and warming at the surface and lower troposphere, and a decrease in vertical stability and convective inhibition. These factors may act to re-enforce the drying trend which has stressed the Congo rainforest over the past 40-years.

Accurate measurements of the convective inhibition (CIN) associated with capping inversions are critical to forecasts of deep convection initiation. The goal of this work is to determine the sounding characteristics most vulnerable to CIN errors arising from hysteresis associated with sensor response and ascent rate of profiling systems. This examination uses 5058 steady-state analytic soundings prescribed using three free parameters that control inversion depth, static stability, and moisture content. A theoretical well-aspirated first-order sensor mounted on a platform that does not disturb its environment is “flown” in these soundings. Sounding characteristics that result in the largest relative CIN errors are also the characteristics that result in the smallest CIN. Because they are more likely to support deep convection initiation, it is particularly critical that environments with small CIN are represented accurately. The relationship between relative CIN error and CIN exists because sounding characteristics that contribute to large CIN do not proportionally increase the CIN error. Analysis also considers CIN intervals with (operationally important) CIN on the threshold between environments that will and will not support deep convection initiation. For these soundings, CIN error is found to be largest for deep, dry inversions characterized by small static stability.

The goal of this study is to evaluate the ability of the state-of-the-art, higher-resolution, convection-permitting, weather research forecasting (WRF) model in predicting the changes in precipitation regimes which come in response to the seasonal changes in the large-scale environmental forcing. The simulation days are selected in the year 2009 and according to four environmental regimes defined by the daily flow direction (Ragi et al. (IEEE Trans Geosci Remote Sens 55:3466–3474, 2017)) using QuikSCAT scatterometer and the comparison of the same with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) final analysis (FNL) data. The observations used for analysis are from Indian Meteorological Department, Wyoming, TRMM satellite data, and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. This study finds that WRF is capable of reproducing the season-specific differences in the precipitating patterns that reflect the different phases of the monsoon. Extensive comparisons to observations point out that the model simulates reasonably well the temperature and the humidity fields, including their diurnal variability and vertical structure. However, the model-produced precipitation and winds do not compare so well, especially the winds. The simulated large-scale monsoon circulation and rainfall patterns indicate a wet bias in the model rainfall simulations than the TRMM rainfall observations over the selected region. In particular, WRF overestimates the rain. The base variables such as outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), latent and sensible heat fluxes, and convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition energy (CIN) are nearly in agreement with the observations. In effect, WRF is skilled to represent the variability in different seasons and its spatial distribution, an important characteristic of the precipitation, especially concerning prediction of the monsoon onset. The disagreements between the observed and the model precipitation and winds can be due to the WRF model physics which generates different dynamics and different precipitating systems and initial conditions.

In this present work, an attempt has been made to analyze various thunderstorm-related parameters and their influence over the two stations Visakhapatnam (VSK) and Machilipatnam (MTM). The thunderstorm-related parameters used in the present study are convective available potential energy (CAPE), lifted index, K-index, total totals index (TTI), humidity index, convective inhibition, thunderstorm prediction index (TPI), deep convective index (DCI) and updraft vertical velocity. This analysis was carried out using NCEP NCAR reanalysis monthly data for the time period from 1948 to 2012. These parameters have given good guidance for studying the thunderstorm event. We also analyzed IMD thunderstorm occurrence days reported at two stations, i.e., VSK and MTM with NCEP NCAR (daily data) calculated CAPE, TTI, TPI and DCI parameter threshold days in pre-monsoon season for every year during the time period 2010 to 2019. Out of those four parameters, TTI has shown good correlation with the IMD recorded days. So we have attempted the prediction of thunderstorms using artificial neural network (ANN) and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) techniques for TTI parameter. While using these techniques, we have experimented in three training sets, i.e., 90%, 80% and 70%. Another attempt has been made to assess the skill of ARMA and ANN techniques in forecasting the occurrence of thunderstorm activity at VSK and MTM stations. The present study suggests that ANN has high skill than ARMA. From this study, we can understand that VSK has more chances for thunderstorms than MTM.

Thunderstorm overshooting is rare but not an unusual phenomenon in a metropolitan of India, Kolkata (22.57° N; 88.36° E) during the pre-monsoon months (April–May). An attempt is made in this study to identify the important parameters differentiating the thunderstorms in overshooting and non-overshooting categories through data analytics from 2000 to 2015. The present investigation on parametric classification would facilitate in estimating the predictability of thunderstorms with overshooting which subsequently might assist in operational forecast of thunderstorm severity over Kolkata. The altitudes of lifting condensation level (LCL), wind shear, bulk Richardson number (BRN), gust speed, boundary layer characteristics and their correlation with thunderstorm cloud top height (CTH) and also their variation and distribution during overshooting (OTS) and non-overshooting (TS) thunderstorms are analyzed in this study. The result depicts that over Kolkata the intensity of storms during OTS is higher than during TS though the frequency of OTS is less than that of TS. The results further show that the potential temperature (θ), equivalent potential temperature (θe), mixing ratio (es) in the boundary layer, convective available potential energy, convective inhibition energy, BRN and gust speed play significant roles in regulating the CTH during OTS and TS thunderstorms over Kolkata.

Atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) is expected to increase under greenhouse gas–induced global warming, but a recent regional study also suggests enhanced convective inhibition (CIN) over land although its cause is not well understood. In this study, a global climate model is first evaluated by comparing its CAPE and CIN with reanalysis data, and then their future changes and the underlying causes are examined. The climate model reasonably captures the present-day CAPE and CIN patterns seen in the reanalysis, and projects increased CAPE almost everywhere and stronger CIN over most land under global warming. Over land, the cases or times with medium to strong CAPE or CIN would increase while cases with weak CAPE or CIN would decrease, leading to an overall strengthening in their mean values. These projected changes are confirmed by convection-permitting 4-km model simulations over the United States. The CAPE increase results mainly from increased low-level specific humidity, which leads to more latent heating and buoyancy for a lifted parcel above the level of free convection (LFC) and also a higher level of neutral buoyancy. The enhanced CIN over most land results mainly from reduced low-level relative humidity (RH), which leads to a higher lifting condensation level and a higher LFC and thus more negative buoyancy. Over tropical oceans, the near-surface RH increases slightly, leading to slight weakening of CIN. Over the subtropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean, the impact of reduced low-level atmospheric lapse rates overshadows the effect of increased specific humidity, leading to decreased CAPE.

In this thesis I advocate for the enhancement of interdisciplinary expertise between atmospheric and interiors sciences. I illustrate the intimate connection between atmosphere and interior with four projects involving two major topics: giant planet seismology, and convective inhibition by condensation. First I advance a heuristic to evaluate generic localized excitation sources for giant planet seismicity, concluding observed oscillations on Jupiter may be caused by highly energetic rock storms lurking deep beneath the visible clouds. Next I develop a method to use existing spacecraft data to probe for seismic activity on giant planets, applying the method to Cassini data. This method finds possible evidence of p-modes on Saturn, excited to staggering amplitudes warping the surface of Saturn with kilometer scale displacements. Next I explore the impact of convective inhibition on Uranus and Neptune, finding that condensation of methane and water produces non-negligible corrections to these planets' thermal histories. Finally I explore a similar mechanism operating in the limit where condensing species are highly abundant. I find that considering convective inhibition, super-Earths can retain their primordial heat for longer than the age of the universe.

The amount of rainfall and its distribution in time and space is dependent on the atmospheric instability conditions, and on its moisture content. The aim of this study was to determine the atmospheric instability conditions during January to March (JFM), February to April (FMA), March to May (MAM), and October to December (OND) rainy seasons over local climate zones in Tanzania. Zone area average seasonal Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Convective Inhibition (CIN), Precipitable Water (PW) and Lifted index (Li) were calculated and analyzed. Results showed Li < 0 in JFM and FMA over whole Tanzania. During MAM and OND, Li < 0 over the Lake Zone, Western Highlands Zone and Central Zone only. CAPE ranged from 793 J/kg to 1183 J/kg during JFM, and 700 J/kg to 1080 J/kg during FMA. During MAM, CAPE ranged from 170 J/kg to 921 J/kg and from 173 J/kg to 833 J/kg during OND. Results also showed CAPE > 1000 J/kg over the Lake Zone, Western Highlands Zone, Island Zone, and Central Zone. These results show that the atmosphere was moderately unstable during the JFM and FMA and was weakly unstable during the MAM and OND. Therefore, the atmosphere is likely to be more convective during JFM and FMA seasons. Keywords: Lifted index, Convective inhibition, Precipitable water, Convective available potential energy, Atmospheric instability.

The Organization of Tropical East Pacific Convection (OTREC) field campaign, conducted August through October 2019, focuses on studying convection in the East Pacific and the Caribbean. An unprecedented number of dropsondes were deployed (648) during 22 missions to study the region of strong sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the East Pacific region, the region just off the coast of Columbia, and in the uniform SST region in the southwest Caribbean. The dropsondes were assimilated in the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast model. This study quantifies departures, observed minus the model value of a variable, in dropsonde denial experiments, and studies time series of convective variables: saturation fraction which measures moisture, and instability index and deep convective inhibition which quantify atmospheric stability and boundary layer stability to convection, respectively. Departures are small whether dropsondes are assimilated or not, except in a special case of a precursor to tropical storm Ivo where wind departures are significantly larger when dropsondes are not assimilated. Departures are larger in cloudy regions compared to cloud free regions when comparing a vertically integrated departure with a cloudiness estimation. Above mentioned variables are all well represented by the model when com- pared to observations, with some systematic deviations in and above the boundary layer. Time series of these variables show artificial convective activity in the model, in the East Pacific region off the coast of Costa Rica, which we hypothesize occurs due to overestimation of moisture content in that region.

Lightning in winter (December, January, February, DJF) is rare compared to lightning in summer (June, July, August, JJA) in central Europe. The conventional explanation attributes the scarcity of winter lightning to seasonally low values of variables that create favorable conditions in summer. Here we systematically examine whether different meteorological processes are at play in winter. We use cluster analysis and principal component analysis and find physically meaningful groups in ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data and lightning data for northern Germany. Two sets of conditions emerged: Wind-field-dominated and mass-field (temperature) dominated lightning conditions. Wind-field type lightning is characterized by increased wind speeds, high cloud shear, large dissipation of kinetic energy in the boundary layer, and moderate temperatures. Clouds are close to the ground and a relatively large fraction of the clouds is warmer than −10 °C. Mass-field type lightning is characterized by increased convective available potential energy (CAPE), the presence of convective inhibition (CIN), high temperatures, and accompanying large amounts of water vapor. Large amounts of cloud-physics variables related to charge separation such as ice particles and solid hydrometeors further differentiate both mass-field and wind-field lightning. Winter lightning is wind-field driven whereas in summer lightning is mostly mass-field driven with a small fraction of cases being wind-field driven. Consequently, typical weather situations for wind-field lightning in the study area in northern Germany are strong westerlies with embedded cyclones. For mass-field lightning, the area is typically on the anticyclonic side of a southwesterly jet.

The frequency, duration, and magnitude of heatwaves and droughts are expected to increase in a warming climate, which can have profound impacts on the environment, society, and public health, and these may be severely affected specifically by compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs). On the basis of daily maximum temperature data and the one-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from 1961 to 2018, the Gan River Basin (GRB) was taken as a case here to construct CDHW identification indicators and quantify the population exposure to CDHWs. We found that ERA5 reanalysis data performed well in overall simulating temperature, precipitation, one-month SPEI, heatwaves, and CDHWs in the GRB from 1961 to 2018. CDHWs during the period from 1997 to 2018 were slightly higher than that in 1961–1997. CDHWs were more likely to occur in the southern parts of the basin due to the relatively high values of drought–heatwave dependence indices. Atmospheric circulation analysis of the 2003 CDHW in the GRB showed a relatively long-lasting anomalous high pressure and anticyclonic circulation system, accompanied by the positive convective inhibition and surface net solar radiation anomalies. These circulating background fields eventually led to the exceptional 2003 CDHW occurrence in the GRB. The population exposure to CDHWs basically increased, especially for the moderate CDHWs in ERA5. The change in total exposure was mainly due to climate change. Compared with the period from 1989 to 1998, the contributions of the population change effect in 2009–2018 gradually increased with the increase in the CDHW magnitude both in the observations and ERA5 reanalysis data.

Both convection and land surface parameterization influence seasonal precipitation forecasts. In this study, the sensitivity of dynamical downscaling seasonal precipitation forecasts to convection and land surface parameterization was investigated by nesting the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model into the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) retrospective forecasts with four convective schemes: Kain–Fritsch (KF), Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ), Grell–Freitas (GF), and new simplified Arakawa–Schubert (NSAS) schemes, and two land surface schemes: Noah and simplified Simple Biosphere (SSiB) schemes over the Han River basin. The CFSv2 model biases are reduced when the KF convective scheme is used in the wet summer season. However, negative biases still exist especially when the combination of BMJ and SSiB schemes is used. Compared with CFSv2 reforecasts and other combinations of schemes, the forecast skills of spatial patterns of precipitation anomalies are highest when the combination of KF and Noah schemes is used in summer. In contrast, the combination of BMJ and SSiB schemes shows lowest forecast skills in summer. To understand the causes of the differences in precipitation forecasts using different parameterization schemes, the simulated moisture flux convergence, thermodynamic parameters at different pressure levels, convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), and heat fluxes are compared with the data in the ERA-5 reanalysis dataset. The WRF model-simulated moisture flux convergence is closer to that of the ERA-5 reanalysis compared with that of the CFSv2 reforecasts in summer. The vertical thermodynamic profiles also suggest that the combination of the KF and Noah schemes has caused a more unstable atmosphere, which is crucial for precipitation. In contrast, the combination of BMJ and SSiB schemes shows a less unstable atmospheric environment in summer, which explains the lower forecast skills compared with other schemes. The spatial patterns of CAPE are also improved when using the WRF model, which further enhances the precipitation forecast skills over the Han River basin.

In this study, we examine the impacts of urbanization and open water surface on heavy convective rainfall based on numerical modeling experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We focus on a severe storm event over the emerging Xiong'an city in northern China. The storm event consists of two episodes, and features intense moisture transport and strong large‐scale forcing. A set of WRF simulations were implemented to examine the sensitivity of spatiotemporal rainfall variability in and around the urban area to different land use scenarios. Modeling results highlight contrasting roles of open water and urban surface in dictating space‐time organizations of convective rainfall under strong large‐scale forcing. Dynamic perturbation to atmospheric forcing dominates the impacts of open water and urban surface on spatial rainfall distribution during the second storm episode, while urban surface promotes early initiation of convection during the first storm episode through enhanced buoyant energy. Open water surface contributes to convective inhibition through evaporative cooling but can enhance moist convection when the impact of urban surface is also considered. The synergistic effect of open water and urban surface leads to rainfall enhancement both over and in the downwind urban area. Changes in rainfall accumulation with different spatial extents of urban coverage highlight strong dependence of urban‐induced rainfall anomalies on urbanization stages. Our results provide improved understandings on hydrometeorological impacts due to emerging cities in complex physiographic settings, and emphasize the importance of atmospheric forcing in urban rainfall modification studies.

Thunderstorm is a mesoscale system (from a km to below thousands of km and sustaining less than one hour). Two pre-monsoon thunderstorms events are analyzed in this study which are named as event-1 (0030-0150 UTC of 19 April 2018 over Chattogram) and event-2 (0600-1000 UTC of 4 May 2018 over Dhaka). To predict these events Mean Convective Available Potential Energy (mCAPE), Mean Convective Inhibition Energy (mCINE), K Index (KI), Total totals Index (TTI), wind distribution, and relative humidity (RH) are investigated.The model simulated mCAPE and mCINE values, 18 hours before the events, are found greater than 1700 J/Kg and less than 100 J/Kg respectively which satisfies the conditions for thunderstorms to occur.The KI values are close to 400C and TTI values are greater or equal to 450C for both events. The wind patterns and the high value of mid –tropospheric RH also favors the formation of severe thunderstorm. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 67(2): 151-156, 2019 (July)

Long-term trends of the parameters related to convection and instability obtained from 27 radiosonde stations across six subdivisions over the Indian region during the period 1980–2016 are presented. A total of 16 parcel and instability parameters along with moisture content, wind shear, and thunderstorm and rainfall frequencies have been utilized for this purpose. Robust fit regression analysis is employed on the regional average time series to calculate the long-term trends on both a seasonal and a yearly basis. The level of free convection (LFC) and the equilibrium level (EL) height are found to ascend significantly in all Indian subdivisions. Consequently, the coastal regions (particularly the western coast) experience increases in severe thunderstorms (TSS) and severe rainfall (SRF) frequency in the pre-monsoon period, while the inland regions (especially Central India) experience an increase in ordinary thunderstorms (TSO) and weak rainfall (WRF) frequency during the monsoon and post-monsoon periods. The 16–20-year periodicity is found to dominate the long-term trends significantly compared to other periodicities and the increase in TSS, and convective available potential energy (CAPE) is found to be more severe after the year 1999. The enhancement in moisture transport and associated cooling at 100 hPa along with the dispersion of boundary layer pollutants are found to be the main causes for the increase in CAPE, which leads to more convective severity in the coastal regions. However, in inland regions, moisture-laden winds are absent and the presence of strong capping effect of pollutants on instability in the lower troposphere has resulted in more convective inhibition energy (CINE). Hence, TSO and occurrences of WRF have increased particularly in these regions.

The Himalayan region is facing frequent cloud bursts and flood events during the summer monsoon season. The Kedarnath flooding of 2013 was one of the most devastating recent events, which claimed thousands of human lives, heavy infrastructure, and economic losses. Previous research reported that the combination of fast-moving monsoon, pre-existing westerlies, and orographic uplifting were the major reasons for the observed cloud burst over Kedarnath. Our study illustrates the vertical distribution of aerosols during this event and its possible role using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulations. Model performance evaluation shows that simulations can capture the spatial and temporal patterns of observed precipitation during this event. Model simulation at 25 km and 4 km horizontal grid resolution, without any changes in physical parameterization, shows a very minimal difference in precipitation. Simulation at convection-permitting scale shows detailed information related to parcel motion compared to coarser resolution. This indicates that the parameterization at different resolutions needs to be further examined for a better outcome. The modeled result shows changes of up to 20–50% in the rainfall over the area near Kedarnath due to the presence of aerosols. Simulation at both resolutions shows the significant vertical transport of natural (increases by 50%+) and anthropogenic aerosols (increases by 200%+) during the convective event, which leads to significant changes in cloud properties, rain concentration, and ice concentration in the presence of these aerosols. Simulations can detect changes in important instability indices such as convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition energy (CIN), vorticity, etc., near Kedarnath due to aerosol–radiation feedback.

The characteristics of plateau precipitation and atmosphere, once accurately and comprehensively understood, can be used to inform sound air–water resource development practices. In this study, atmospheric exploration of the Tibet Plateau (TP) was conducted using ground-based microwave radiometer (MWR) data collected during the East Asian summer monsoon. Atmospheric temperature, pressure, humidity, and other variables were gathered under clear-sky, cloudy-sky, and rainy-sky conditions. Statistical characteristics of the air parcel height and stability/convection indices such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) were investigated, with a special focus on the rainy-sky condition. Two retrieval applications for characterizing precipitation, namely short-term precipitation forecast and quantitative precipitation estimation were presented. Results showed that CAPE values in the Darlag region reached extremes around 18:00–20:00 (UTC+8) for cloudy-sky and rainy-sky conditions with corresponding peaks of about 1046.56 J/kg and 703.02 J/kg, respectively. When stratiform or convective–mixed precipitation occurs, the precipitable water vapor (PWV) and CAPE values were generally greater than 1.7 cm and 1000 J/kg, respectively. CAPE values are likely to decrease before the occurrence of precipitation due to the release of the latent heat in the atmosphere.

International audience; The present study examines mechanisms by which deep moist convection may be initiated through deepening of a well-mixed convective boundary layer under large-scale low-level convergence. The process is examined using a standard formulation for the well-mixed boundary layer, in which the depth increases exponentially with time under a constant convergence with height. Consideration is also given to a case with a more realistic mean vertical velocity profile which has a maximum in the middle troposphere and attenuates to zero at the tropopause. In the latter case, the unstable well-mixed layer under convergence grows to a troposphere-deep mixed layer. Importantly, under these scenarios, the so-called convective inhibition (CIN) does not inhibit deepening of a well-mixed convective boundary layer, nor does deep moist convection need to overcome CIN to initiate.

Author(s): Williams, IN | Abstract: Feedbacks between soil moisture and convective precipitation are not well represented in current Earth system models, and can affect projections of drought and heavy-precipitation extremes. To explore the atmospheric and land-surface influences on the initiation (triggering) of daytime deep convection, single-column model experiments were performed using the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2), over the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The results indicate that the positive and negative feedback mechanisms found in earlier studies (using simplified boundary-layer models) are robust to large-scale forcing and interactions between boundary-layer turbulence, cloud dynamics, and radiation. However, systematic responses of convective triggering to soil moisture emerged only after switching from a convective available potential energy-based to a convective inhibition energy-based convective parameterization. This suggests that the choice of convective mass-flux closure largely determines the sensitivity of parameterized convective clouds to land-surface state. Errors in land-model parameterizations of evapotranspiration also affect the probability of deep convection, with vegetation (transpiration) playing an important role in linking soil moisture to surface energy partitioning and clouds. Parameterizations that permit the triggering feedback mechanism better predict the statistics of daytime shallow and deep convection, with respect to observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site in the Southern Great Plains. The results illustrate how errors in the representation of evapotranspiration in land-surface models can propagate through the chain of coupled land-atmosphere processes to affect convective clouds.

To study the diurnal evolution of the convective cloud field, we develop a precipitation cell tracking algorithm which records the merging and fragmentation of convective cells during their life cycles, and apply it on large eddy simulation (LES) data. Conditioning on the area covered by each cell, our algorithm is capable of analyzing an arbitrary number of auxiliary fields, such as the anomalies of temperature and moisture, convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN). For tracks that do not merge or split (termed "solitary"), many of these quantities show generic, often nearly linear relations that hardly depend on the forcing conditions of the simulations, such as surface temperature. This finding allows us to propose a highly idealized model of rain events, where the surface precipitation area is circular and a cell's precipitation intensity falls off linearly with the distance from the respective cell center. The drop-off gradient is nearly independent of track duration and cell size, which allows for a generic description of such solitary tracks, with the only remaining parameter the peak intensity. In contrast to the simple and robust behavior of solitary tracks, tracks that result from merging of two or more cells show a much more complicated behavior. The most intense, long lasting and largest tracks indeed stem from multi-mergers - tracks involved in repeated merging. Another interesting finding is that the precipitation intensity of tracks does not strongly depend on the absolute amount of local initial CAPE, which is only partially consumed by most rain events. Rather, our results speak to boundary layer cooling, induced by rain re-evaporation, as the cause for CAPE reduction, CIN increase and shutdown of precipitation cells., Manuscript under review in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

The ability of two downscaling experiments to correctly simulate the instability conditions that can trigger thunderstorms over the Iberian Peninsula is compared in this paper. To do so, three instability indices are evaluated: TT index, CAPE and CIN. The WRF model is used for the simulations. The N experiment is driven by ERA-Interim’s initial and boundary conditions; The D experiment has the same configuration as N, but the 3DVAR data assimilation step is additionally run at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. Eight radiosondes are available over the IP, and the values for these indices calculated from the University of Wyoming were chosen as reference in the validation of both simulations. Additionally, measured variables at different pressure levels from the radiosondes provided byWyoming were used to calculate the three instability indices by our own methodology using the R package aiRthermo. According to the validation, the correlation, SD and RMSE obtained by the experiment D for all the indices in most of the stations are better than those for N. The different methodologies produce small discrepancies between the values for TT, but these are larger for CAPE and CIN due to the dependency of these indices on the initial conditions assumed for the calculation of an air parcel’s vertical evolution. Similar results arise from the seasonal analysis concerning both WRF experiments: N tends to overestimate or underestimate (depending on the index) the variability of the reference values, but D is able to capture it in most of the seasons. The heterogeneity of the indices is highlighted in the mean maps over the Iberian Peninsula. According to those from D, the ingredients for the development of convective precipitation during winter are found along the entire Atlantic coast, but in summer they are located particularly in the Mediterranean coast. The chances of developing thunderstorms in those areas at 12 UTC is much higher than at 00 UTC; The convective inhibition is more extended towards inland at 00 UTC in those areas, which prevents storms from developing. However, high values are observed near Murcia also at 12 UTC.

Radiosonde observations collected during the GoAmazon2014/5 campaign are analyzed to identify the primary thermodynamic regimes accompanying different modes of convection over the Amazon. This analysis identifies five thermodynamic regimes that are consistent with traditional Amazon calendar definitions of seasonal shifts, which include one wet, one transitional, and three dry season regimes based on a k-means cluster analysis. A multisensor ground-based approach is used to project associated bulk cloud and precipitation properties onto these regimes. This is done to assess the propensity for each regime to be associated with different characteristic cloud frequency, cloud types, and precipitation properties. Additional emphasis is given to those regimes that promote deep convective precipitation and organized convective systems. Overall, we find reduced cloud cover and precipitation rates to be associated with the three dry regimes and those with the highest convective inhibition. While approximately 15 % of the dataset is designated as organized convection, these events are predominantly contained within the transitional regime.

This study investigates classification and diurnal variations of the precipitation echoes over the central Tibetan Plateau based on the observations collected from a C-band vertically-pointing frequency-modulated continuous-wave (C-FMCW) radar during the Third Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Scientific Experiment (TIPEX-III) 2014-Intensive Observation Period (2014-IOP). The results show that 51.32% of the vertical profiles have valid echoes with reflectivity > –10 dBZ, and 35.06% of the valid echo profiles produce precipitation at the ground (precipitation profiles); stratiform precipitation with an evident bright-band signature, weak convective precipitation, and strong convective precipitation account for 52.03%, 42.98%, and 4.99% of the precipitation profiles, respectively. About 59.84% of the precipitation occurs in the afternoon to midnight, while 40.16% of the precipitation with weaker intensity is observed in the nocturnal hours and in the morning. Diurnal variation of occurrence frequency of precipitation shows a major peak during 2100–2200 LST (local solar time) with 59.02% being the stratiform precipitation; the secondary peak appears during 1300–1400 LST with 59.71% being the weak convective precipitation; the strong convective precipitation occurs mostly (81.83%) in the afternoon and evening with two peaks over 1200–1300 and 1700–1800 LST, respectively. Starting from approximately 1100 LST, precipitation echoes develop with enhanced vertical air motion, elevated echo top, and increasing radar reflectivity. Intense upward air motion occurs most frequently in 1700–1800 LST with a secondary peak in 1100–1400 LST, while the tops of precipitation echoes and intense upward air motion reach their highest levels during 1600–1800 LST. The atmospheric conditions in the early morning are disadvantageous for convective initiation and development. Around noon, the convective available potential energy (CAPE) increases markedly, convective inhibition (CIN) is generally small, and a super-dry-adiabatic layer is present near the surface (0–400 m). In the early evening, some larger values of CAPE, level of neutral buoyancy, and total precipitable water are present, suggesting more favorable thermodynamic and water vapor conditions.

This study investigates the frequency distribution of thunderstorm activity over Pakistan via the analysis of two convective parameters, i.e., convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN). The climatology and trends of thunderstorm frequency, CAPE, and CIN have been analyzed, based on seasonal and annual timescales, by using station and reanalysis datasets. Thirty-eight years (1979–2016) data of monthly thunderstorm days for 54 meteorological stations, well-distributed over the country, have been utilized in this study. Those meteorological stations which constitute core region of thunderstorm frequency are identified. Our analysis showed that the mountainous and sub-mountainous areas of Pakistan, particularly in upper half of the country, are at the top with the maximum thunderstorm activity on both seasonal and annual timescales. Pre-monsoon (April–June) and monsoon (July–September) are most vulnerable seasons to the development of thunderstorms. It is also observed that most of the stations exhibit an increase in the thunderstorm days during winter (December–March) and decrease during pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon (October–November) seasons. Interestingly, core regions of CAPE and thunderstorm frequency almost coincide with region of low CIN. However, trends in CAPE do not explain the variability and trends of thunderstorm frequency over the whole study area explicitly. At some stations, trends in CAPE are increasing in contrast to thunderstorm frequency trends. We showed, in particular, that the increasing trend of CIN is a likely reason for decreasing trends of thunderstorm frequency over Pakistan. In total, 17 stations are identified to be the most vulnerable to thunderstorm activity over the country.

It has been a great challenge for global weather and climate models to simulate realistic Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) while keeping global energy and water balance unaffected. This work demonstrates that, in the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model, enhanced boundary layer (BL) convergence feedback to the lower tropospheric heating in both the modified Tidtke (TDK) and relaxed Arakawa–Schubert (RAS) convective schemes have significantly improved the quality of MJO simulation in terms of both the eastward propagation and three-dimensional dynamic and thermodynamic structures. The modifications to the TDK and RAS schemes include (a) a BL depth-dependent convective inhibition, and (b) a bottom-heavy diffusivity in the shallow convection scheme. To understand how these modifications improved the MJO simulation, we applied dynamics-oriented diagnostics to reveal the critical role of the interaction between the lower-tropospheric heating and the BL convergence. The modified schemes enhance the lower-tropospheric diabatic heating to the east of the MJO convective center, which leads to increased Kelvin wave easterly winds. The strengthened MJO easterly winds reinforce the BL moisture convergence to the east of the MJO center and therefore result in increased upward transports of moisture and heat from the BL to the free atmosphere, which further moisten and destabilize the lower troposphere and thereby increase the lower-tropospheric heating. The positive feedback between the BL convergence and lower tropospheric heating improves MJO eddy available potential energy generation to the east of major convection and promotes MJO eastward propagation. The results indicate that correct simulation of the heating induced by shallow and/or congestus clouds and its interaction with BL dynamics is critical for realistic simulation of the MJO as suggested by the trio-interaction theory.

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) climatology, the thermodynamic and dynamical variables, and teleconnections influencing MCSs development are assessed for the Paute basin (PB) in the Ecuadorian Andes from 2000 to 2009. The seasonality of MCSs occurrence shows a bimodal pattern, with higher occurrence during March-April (MA) and October-November (ON), analogous to the regional rainfall seasonality. The diurnal cycle of MCSs shows a clear nocturnal occurrence, especially during the MA and ON periods. Interestingly, despite the higher occurrence of MCSs during the rainy seasons, the monthly size relative frequency remains fairly constant throughout the year. On the east of the PB, the persistent high convective available potential and low convective inhibition values from midday to nighttime are likely related to the nocturnal development of the MCSs. A significant positive correlation between the MCSs occurrence to the west of the PB and the Trans-Niño index was found, suggesting that ENSO is an important source of interannual variability of MCSs frequency with increasing development of MCSs during warm ENSO phases. On the east of the PB, the variability of MCSs is positively correlated to the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies south of the equator, due to the variability of the Atlantic subtropical anticyclone, showing main departures from this relation when anomalous conditions occur in the tropical Pacific due to ENSO.

Characteristics of two serious air pollution episodes (9-15 January, as the winter case; and 30 June to 1 July, as the summer case), which occurred in Beijing in 2013 were investigated and compared using multi-method observations and numerical simulations. During these two air pollution episodes, PM2.5 concentrations varied significantly within Beijing, with PM2.5 concentrations in southern parts of Beijing being significantly higher than in northern areas. Typically, heavy air pollution episodes begin in the southern parts and disperse towards the northern parts of Beijing. Clearly, synoptic patterns and the stability of atmospheric circulation patterns were the main factors controlling air pollution in Beijing. During the winter case, a warm center above 900hPa occurred over Beijing. Meanwhile, in the summer case, although there was only a weak inversion, the convective inhibition energy was strong (over 200J/kG). This clearly influenced the duration of the air pollution event. Except for the local accumulation and secondary atmospheric reactions in both cases, regional straw burnings contributed a lot to the PM2.5 concentrations in summer case. Using the CAMx model, we established that regional transport contributed almost 59% to the PM2.5 averaged concentration in Beijing in the winter case, but only 31% in the summer case. Thus, the winter case was a typical regional air pollution episode, while the summer case resulted from local accumulation straw burnings transportation and strong secondary atmospheric reactions. Given that air pollution is a regional problem in China, consistent and simultaneous implementation of regional prevention and control strategies is necessary to improve regional air quality.

Climatology of atmospheric instability is studied over Gadanki using high-resolution radiosonde launched daily during April 2006 to April 2017. The diurnal and seasonal variation of instability parameters is discussed in relation with surface meteorological parameters. Seasonal variations depict strong variability in instability which is masked by stronger diurnal variation with descending Lifting Condensation Level (LCL) and Level of Free Convection (LFC) between 11 and 18 IST resulting in high Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values and heavy rainfall. On a seasonal basis, parcel parameters are high during the late monsoon and post-monsoon while the instability parameters like Total Totals index (TT) and Vertical Totals index (VT) show highest values in the pre-monsoon associated with strong convection. LFC and LCL start descending with ascent in Equilibrium Level (EL) before the monsoon onset. However after the onset, atmospheric instability falls sharply as supported by decreasing TT, VT and CAPE with increasing LI. The 11-year long-term variation depicts slightly elevated LFC and LCL and declining EL values indicating a decrease in the instability with a decrease in CAPE and K Index (KI) and increase in Lifted Index (LI) and Convective Inhibition (CIN).

High concentrations of dust particles can cause respiratory problems and increase non-accidental mortality. Studies found fine dust (with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 µm) is an important component of the total PM2.5 mass in the western and central US in spring and summer and has positive trends. This work examines climatic factors influencing long-term variations in surface fine dust concentration in the US using station data from the Interagency Monitoring Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network during 1990–2015. The variations in the fine dust concentration can be largely explained by the variations in precipitation, surface bareness, and 10 m wind speed. Moreover, including convective parameters such as convective inhibition (CIN) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) that reveal the stability of the atmosphere better explains the variations and trends over the Great Plains from spring to fall. While the positive trend of fine dust concentration in the southwestern US in spring is associated with precipitation deficit, the increase in fine dust over the central Great Plains in summer is largely associated with enhanced CIN and weakened CAPE, which are caused by increased atmospheric stability due to surface drying and lower-troposphere warming. The strengthening of the Great Plains low-level jet also contributes to the increase in fine dust concentration in the central Great Plains in summer via its positive correlation with surface winds and negative correlation with CIN. Summer dusty days in the central Great Plains are usually associated with a westward extension of the North Atlantic subtropical high that intensifies the Great Plains low-level jet and also results in a stable atmosphere with subsidence and reduced precipitation.

Two shear-based supercell motion forecast methods are assessed to understand how each method performs under differing environmental conditions for observed right-moving supercells. Accordingly, a 573-case observational dataset is partitioned into small versus large values of environmental and storm-related variables such as bulk wind shear, convective available potential energy, mean wind, storm motion, and storm-relative helicity (SRH). In addition, hodographs are partitioned based on the tornado damage scale, as well as where the storm motion falls among the four quadrants. With respect to the 573-case dataset, the largest supercell motion forecast errors generally occur when the (i) observed midlevel (4–5 km AGL) storm-relative winds are either anomalously weak or strong, (ii) observed 0–3-km AGL SRH is large, (iii) supercell motion is fast, (iv) convective inhibition is strong, or (v) the surface–500-mb (1 mb = 1 hPa) RH is low. Moreover, significantly tornadic supercells are biased 1.2 m s−1 slower and farther right of the hodograph than predicted by the Bunkers forecast method, but show very small bias for the modified Rasmussen–Blanchard method (though errors are slightly larger for this method). Conversely, the smallest errors occur when, relative to the overall sample, the (i) observed upper-level (9–10 km AGL) storm-relative winds are strong, (ii) supercell motion is slow or the mean wind is weak, (iii) surface–500-mb RH is high, or (iv) convective inhibition is weak. Errors also are relatively small when storm motion lies in the bottom-left hodograph quadrant.