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While IT workforce research often examines job- and organizational-related reasons for turnover, studies rarely connect the immediate social context of IT work to IT professionals' workplace behavior. To understand the influence of the immediate social context, we develop a social comparison model that connects the social influence of co-worker who have left an organization to turnover among IT professionals who remain. We test our model using a social network of 4,011 IT professionals employed in a large IT firm over four years. We complement our analysis of this data with a multiple-case study with five software development teams. Across the two studies, our results suggest that the departure of an IT professional increases the probability of turnover among remaining coworkers; further, we found that turnover is even more likely when the remaining IT professionals are similar in technical abilities and demographic attributes to the co-worker who left. Our results direct attention to the immediate social context as an influence on the turnover behavior of IT professionals and explain how similarity in domain-specific attributes shapes this turnover behavior. Practitioners should know that a single departure may cause a chain reaction in IT work teams and organizations and find suggestions for assigning new employees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses how network contagion affects the acceptance or rejection of mobile banking, emphasizing the risk of contagion that hinders the growth of users among bank clients. As a research method, a mathematical model based on the Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered framework is used within a nonlinear dynamic system with a distributed time delay and the optimal control strategy. The approach aims to find the behaviour dynamics of mobile banking users, non-users, and undecided ones. Our model adds value to the existing literature by employing a qualitative dynamic analysis, as opposed to other studies that study contagion empirically. The steady states and their conditions for stability are found, and the critical value for time delay causing oscillatory is determined. The optimal control strategies are identified to enlarge the number of mobile banking users and decrease the number of non-users. Numerical simulations support the theoretical findings. The research has practical implications given that the model predicts mobile banking user behaviour in assisting policy decision-making and addresses the possible policy measures that aim to increase the number of mobile banking users. The conclusions suggest that financial inclusion can contribute to the expansion of mobile banking users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate perceived changes in academic self-efficacy associated with self-reported symptoms of COVID-19, changes in mental health, and trust in universities' management of the pandemic and transition to remote education during lockdown of Swedish universities in the spring of 2020. Methods: 4495 participated and 3638 responded to self-efficacy questions. Associations were investigated using multinomial regression. Results: Most students reported self-experienced effects on self-efficacy. Lowered self-efficacy was associated with symptoms of contagion, perceived worsening of mental health and low trust in universities' capacity to successfully manage the lockdown and transition to emergency remote education. Increased self-efficacy was associated with better perceived mental health and high trust in universities. Conclusion: The initial phase of the pandemic was associated with a larger proportion of students reporting self-experienced negative effects on academic self-efficacy. Since self-efficacy is a predictor of academic performance, it is likely that students' academic performance will be adversely affected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study introduces a novel approach to estimate tail dependence in financial contagion using mixture copulas. Addressing the challenges of weight parameter estimation in conventional models, we propose a Bayesian model averaging method to determine optimal copula weights. Through both simulations and empirical studies, the proposed method demonstrates improved robustness and accuracy, particularly when handling extreme weight scenarios. These advancements offer more reliable measurements of financial contagion, contributing to enhanced risk management and policy-making in interconnected financial markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the rising popularity of peer‐to‐peer sharing platforms, very little empirical research has documented how consumers respond to the opportunity of renting goods to one another. This work delineates how metaphysical (besides physical) contagion beliefs, particularly when self‐identification with possessions is high, demotivates people from renting out their possessions in P2P platforms. We claim and empirically test that (1) others' physical contact hinders willingness to share a possession due to an anticipated threat to its essence and that (2) the possession's emotional link with the owner's identity amplifies this effect. Online and laboratory experiments provide evidence for these effects in isolation from physical contamination concerns. This research extends the research on peer‐to‐peer sharing by demonstrating detrimental effects of beliefs in essence threat and a possible mitigation tactic. Despite the rising popularity of peer‐to‐peer sharing platforms, we know little about how consumers respond to the opportunity of renting goods to one another. This work delineates how metaphysical (besides physical) contagion beliefs, particularly when self‐identification with possessions is high, demotivates people from renting out their possessions in P2P platforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The authors study the effect of an exogenous shock in the form of Coronavirus lockdowns on individual default and on default contagion within the microfinance (MF) sector in India. The authors rely on proprietary data obtained from an MF institution for the period from Nov 2019 to Dec 2020. The authors show that default increased to 95.29% in the month of April 2020, when Covid lockdowns were fully in place. However, borrowers bounced back thereafter, either making full or partial payments, so that defaults had fallen to 5.92% by December 2020. Static features of the group lending model like peer monitoring and joint liability help explain 90% of the monthly deficit during Covid lockdowns among uneducated borrowers. Dynamic features such as contingent renewal help explain why defaults were cured quickly through timely repayments. Finally, there is an absence of default contagion at the district level. Indeed, lagged own default explains 96.6% of variation in individual default, rather than contagion through group, village or district-level defaults. The authors conclude that the MF sector is resilient to exogenous shocks like the pandemic. Design/methodology/approach: The authors use time series panel regressions, as well as cross-sectional regressions. Findings: The authors find that borrower defaults increased significantly to 95.29% during the month of April 2020, when Covid lockdowns were fully in place. However, borrowers bounced back almost immediately, either making full or partial payments, such that defaults had fallen to 5.92% by December 2020. The group lending model does remarkably well in explaining defaults even during Covid lockdowns. Among the majority (92%) of borrowers who are residents of rural districts, the group lending model appears to blunt the impact of the exogenous shock on rates of default. Indeed, panel regressions demonstrate that the group lending model helps explain 90% of the monthly deficit among uneducated borrowers. Logistic regressions indicate that the group lending model is less persuasive among relatively affluent borrowers residing in semi-urban or urban areas who have some formal schooling. Contingent renewal is shown to be an effective disciplining mechanism when a group does default due to the Covid lockdowns. The authors find that groups who defaulted in April 2020 but repaid the outstanding balance within the next two months were more likely to receive subsequent loans from the lender. On the other hand, groups who defaulted in April 2020 and did not repay the outstanding balance until December 2020 did not receive follow-on financing. Finally, the authors find that lagged individual default is the primary source of individual default, rather than contagion through group, village or district-level defaults. Research limitations/implications: The limitation of the study is that it is confined to a single MF institution in India. Social implications: The authors conclude that the social capital that is the foundation of the group lending model succeeds in limiting both the risk and contagion of default from an exogenous shock, such as the Covid pandemic. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, the authors are the first to examine defaults in the Indian MF sector during the Covid lockdowns in April 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To evidence the impact of air pollution on the health of urban populations, several studies use natural experiments that shift commuting from public transport to cars (or vice‐versa). However, as public transport use declines, reduced interpersonal contact may lead to slower virus spread and thus lower respiratory morbidity. Using a difference‐in‐differences strategy, we show that respiratory hospitalisations are both positively affected by air pollution and negatively affected by viral spread following partial unavailability of public transport due to strikes in the ten most populated French cities during the period 2010–2015. Our results are in line with studies in other countries that have found a significant increase in urgent respiratory hospitalisations following a public transport strike, most likely due to car pollution, but we also find a detectable interaction with viral spread, which should not be overlooked when interpreting these studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The implementation of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (HFCV) policies represents a crucial strategy in addressing global warming within the transportation sector. This study assesses the impact of these policies on HFCV-related stock returns from 2019 to 2023, utilizing static and dynamic contagion tests to construct a contagion network. The results indicate several key findings: (1) both fuel cell (FC)- and hydrogen-oriented policies exhibit significant contagion effects across the HFCV supply chain, particularly between FC/hydrogen sectors and their upstream, midstream, and downstream counterparts, with stronger contagion pre-2021 and a modest decline post-2022; (2) in 2020, FC-oriented policies dominated contagion dynamics, with a notable shift towards hydrogen-oriented policies after 2021; (3) prior to 2021, contagion rates reached as high as 80%, largely driven by higher-order co-moments rather than linear correlations, but declined to below 25% after 2021; (4) upstream sectors within the HFCV supply chain are more sensitive to policy contagion compared to midstream and downstream sectors; and (5) among the 10 policies analyzed, the 2021–2023 New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan had the most substantial impact, both driving and receiving policy shocks within the HFCV network. These findings offer critical insights into the energy-economic interactions shaping the HFCV market, providing valuable guidance for policymakers and industry stakeholders aiming to promote sustainable transport strategies. • To study policy impact on HFCV industrial chain stock returns. • Use the contagion test to judge the impact of policy shocks on related sectors. • Upstream HFCV sectors are more receptive to policy contagion. • New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan wields the strongest influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the consequences of Chinese regulators deviating from a long-standing full bailout policy in addressing the distress of a city-level commercial bank. This policy shift led to a persistent widening of credit spreads and a significant decline in funding ratios for negotiable certificates of deposit issued by small banks relative to large ones. Our empirical analysis reveals a novel contagion mechanism driven by reduced confidence in future bailouts (implicit non-guarantee), contributing to the subsequent collapse of other small banks. However, in the longer term, this policy shift improved price efficiency, credit allocation, and discouraged risk-taking among small banks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cryptocurrency market has undergone significant turbulence, characterized by enormous volatility shifts, as recently experienced during the COVID-19 shock. Although there is an abundant literature dealing with various aspects of cryptocurrencies, little attention has been devoted to understanding the interconnectedness among different cryptocurrencies, particularly the role of abrupt changes. This paper aims to fill this gap by conducting an intraday analysis to assess the contagion hypothesis within the cryptocurrency markets, with particular focus on the aprubt changes and whether it is a driver of co-aprubt changes in other markets. Specfically, we investigate four major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, and Ripple) both prior to and during the COVID-19 shock, April 2019 to September 2020. Using the Diebold and Yilmaz methodology, we decompose the realized volatility into continuous and jump components, and examine how these spillovers evolve across cryptocurrency markets before and during the COVID-19 crisis. Our findings reveal that while the volatility and returns spillovers across the cryptocurrency market escalate during the crisis, there is a notable decrease in the jumps and co-jumps between cryptocurrencies. This suggests that the heightened interdependency observed is not rooted in fundamental factors. Morever, our findings show that spillover is especially prominent in the continuous part of the realised volatility dynamic. Notably, XRP emerges as the predominant transmitter in the context of continuous part of the realized volatility. Our study contributes to the emerging literature on the interconnectedness of price movement/co-mouvement across cryptocurrencies, offers a novel adaptation of the Diebold and Yilmaz methodology to capture the unique features of cryptocurrency prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2020, the growing COVID‐19 pandemic threatened engagement with the U.S. presidential election. Did this threat affect how people perceived the voting process and the means by which they voted? Four months before the election, 564 participants in several states viewed slideshows framing the pandemic primarily as a health or economic threat, then rated their impressions of voting environments and their attitudes about various voting methods. Following the general election, these data were matched to records indicating if and how participants voted. Exposure to the health consequences of COVID‐19 led people to judge socially dense polling places more negatively but had few effects on other voter outcomes. Instead, chronic aversion to germs predicted more negative responses to dense polling places as well as support for, and use of, socially distanced voting methods, even when accounting for other relevant factors such as partisanship and local COVID‐19 rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impacts of China's carbon mitigation policies spanning from 2011 to 2023 on the stock returns of seven distinct nonrenewable and renewable energy markets. We apply contagion tests, examining variations in linear, asymmetric, and external dependence to identify the transmission of policy shocks from the coal market to energy markets. Among the analyzed carbon reduction policies, both cap-and-trade schemes and coal capacity cut policies present stronger evidence of policy contagion between the coal and energy markets compared to national development plans. Additionally, nonrenewable energy markets demonstrate more pronounced evidence of policy contagion than renewable energy markets during the implementation of carbon reduction plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the impact of different sources of global, regional and local uncertainty on the seven largest Scandinavian banks over the period 2005–2018. Using a spillover approach and network analysis, we find that Swedish banks are the main source of contagion in the region and spillovers tend to increase in times of heightened uncertainty. Global economic policy uncertainty, global financial uncertainty and local housing market uncertainty affect the Scandinavian banking sector the most. By contrast, geopolitical risk spillovers are limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper explains the origin of the financial crisis in one country and its spread to other countries—contagion, in a dynamic model of international capital inflow. The origin of the crisis is rooted in this model in the common international loan market, and crisis can occur even when the countries are not interconnected via bi-lateral or multi-lateral trade and commerce, when connected via trade or commerce the contagion hits with a stronger effect. The paper introduces country-level heterogeneity of risk of default for individual countries in the borrowing group which generates interesting cases of the contagion effect. A change in the risk of default of an individual country adversely affects the total supply in the international loan market leading to crises in other countries via increased international interest rates. It has an enhanced effect when the risk of default depends on the lagged domestic productivity of the borrowing country. The model can explain various episodes of financial crisis in a common framework and can be usefully employed for policy formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research shows that large, densely populated urban areas have higher rates of child victimization that have persisted over time. However, few investigations have inquired about the processes that produce and sustain hot and cold spots of child victimization. As a result, the mechanisms that produce the observed spatial clustering of child victimization, and hence "why" harms against children tend to cluster in space, remains unknown. Does the likelihood of being a victim of violence in one location depend on a similar event happening in a nearby location within a specified timeframe? Rather, are child victims of violence more likely to reside in suboptimal neighborhood conditions? This paper aims to present an analytical and theoretical framework for distinguishing between these locational (point) processes to determine whether the empirical spatial patterns undergirding child victimization are more reflective of the "spread" via contagion (i.e., dependency) or whether they are produced by neighborhood structural inequality resulting from spatial heterogeneity. To detect spatial dependence, we applied the inhomogeneous K -function to Los Angeles Medical Examiner data on child homicide victim locations while controlling for regional differences in victimization events (i.e., heterogeneity). Our analysis found strong evidence of spatial clustering in child victimization at small spatial scales but inhibition at larger scales. We further found limited support for the spatiotemporal clustering of child victimization indicative of a contagion effect. Overall, our results support the role of neighborhood structural vulnerability in the underlying mechanisms producing patterns of child victimization across Los Angeles County. We conclude by discussing the policy implications for understanding this spatial patterning in geographical context and for developing effective and targeted preventive interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Communal violence is a major source of insecurity within and across borders, sparking significant displacement flows and disturbing livelihoods. While conflict literature has shed light onto its causes, the existing research has paid little systematic attention to the spatial dynamics of communal violence. We distinguish between spillover of violence and spillover of predictors. Spillover of violence is defined as conflict incidences occurring as a direct response to communal violence in a nearby location. Spillover of predictors describes instances of communal violence that occur due to nearby conflict-inducing factors. We clarify theoretical pathways for both spillover processes, focusing on drought exposure affecting not locally but in nearby areas. Applying spatial models, we test the expectations regarding nearby violence breeding violence and nearby drought increasing violence with data on incidences of communal violence for sub-Saharan Africa (1990–2014). Our results demonstrate that communal violence explains nearby communal violence through different spillover processes. We also find evidence for an increase in violence due to exposure from neighborhood droughts as well as other conflict-inducing factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have suggested that bullying may be contagious in adolescents. The present study examined whether ego depletion mediated the association between peer bullying and participant bullying and whether the mediating process was moderated by participant trait self‐control. A sample of 2217 Chinese high school students (16.92 ± 0.94 years; 1068 boys and 1084 girls) were invited to fill in the questionnaires. The results reveal that after controlling for gender, grade and neuroticism, ego depletion partially mediates the positive relationship between peer bullying and participant bullying. Further, participant trait self‐control moderates the relationship between peer bullying and participant bullying and that between peer bullying and participant ego depletion. That is, the strength of the contagion effect is lower in adolescents with high trait self‐control compared to those with low trait self‐control. In conclusion, this study provides empirical evidence of the contagion of bullying in adolescents. Limitations and implications for research and practice are discussed. Practitioner points: Bullying is contagious in adolescents.Ego depletion partially mediates the contagion of bullying in adolescents.The contagion effect of bullying is lower in adolescents with high trait self‐control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Validation of newly developed imagery- and video-based chain of contagion tasks. • Video- and the imagery-based CCT showed similar results. • The transmission of contamination was specific to disgust vs. non-threat inductions. • The transmission of contamination was only persistent in the C-OCD group. • Open access instrument is now easily applicable in research and practice. Tolin et al. (2004) developed the Chain of Contagion Task (CCT) to experimentally test the law of contagion and looming vulnerability (LV). In the CCT, contaminated pencils are brought into contact with clean pencils. The degree of contamination transferred to further new pencils refers to the level of biased contagious beliefs. Although this could be an important transdiagnostic tool, the usability of the original paradigm has been very laborious. Therefore, an imagery- and video-based CCT is introduced and validated in Study 1 in a nonclinical sample with 85 participants. In Study 2, the imagery-based CCT was validated in a clinical study with 15 participants diagnosed with contamination-related obsessive-compulsive disorder (C-OCD), 15 participants suffering from an anxiety disorder, and 15 nonclinical controls. The number of participants is consistent with those in Tolin's original sample and the statistical evaluation of Study 2 was preregistered. Both CCT could be validated and the results could be replicated. In the imagery-based CCT, the C-OCD group displayed significantly higher contamination ratings, avoidance tendencies and LV than the two control groups. We argue that this open access diagnostic instrument can be applied in research as well as in therapeutic practice (Download CCT videos and imagery: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7730459). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research has highlighted that decentralization is key to understanding the marketization of the Swedish welfare state, while local political factors are important to explaining the subnational differences in actual degrees of welfare service privatization. Other research has highlighted the impact of pragmatism rather than ideology in local government's decisions to outsource welfare services, including policy diffusion through geographical proximity to highly privatized municipalities. However, little research has been done on the role or type of political representation and whether this matters to the diffusion of welfare service privatization. Thus, there is little knowledge about whether local governments are primarily responsive to public preferences, the ideological position of the local government, or influences from neighboring municipalities. Drawing on the literature on political representation and policy diffusion, I test three hypotheses: that the local governments are primarily responsive to public preferences (sanction representation), that local governments are primarily responsive to their own ideological position (gyroscopic representation), or that local governments are primarily influenced by outsourcing in neighboring municipalities (contagion). Using a time‐lagged correlational design with survey data covering both local politicians and ordinary municipal residents, as well as public accounts of municipal outsourcing, I find that public preferences play a negligible role to the privatization process. A minor part of the between‐municipal variation in welfare service privatization can be attributed to the preferences of local politicians (gyroscopic representation), while a more substantial part is due to pressures from outsourcing among municipal neighbors (contagion). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a dynamic dependence framework to calculate various indicators of systemic sovereign default risk. Our analysis reveals a notable increase in systemic fragility among euro-area sovereigns since the onset of the Subprime Crisis, particularly during the First Greek Bailout in May 2010. Furthermore, our measures successfully capture key events within the euro area, including Mario Draghi's impactful "whatever-it-takes" speech in mid-2012 and the Cypriot Banking Crisis of 2012-2013. The incorporation of dynamic dependence into our measures provides a more comprehensive depiction of systemic risk within the euro area sovereign system, often demonstrating distinct dynamics when compared to their static counterparts. These findings carry significant policy implications and contribute to enhancing our understanding of systemic risk among euro-area sovereigns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Loss of selfhood may be considered one of the most enduring assumptions in writings on crowds and masses. The contemporary idea of the social avalanche makes plain this expectation that no person can easily withstand the de-individualizing changes wrought by the momentum of collective forces. Individuals become the proverbial herd-like non-selves in those overwhelming moments. Yet the affective turn in social theory offers an alternative view of subjectivity that does not downplay the power of social avalanches but at the same time refocuses on levels of the self not fully articulated in previous works on crowds and masses. These are levels of re-individualization that both reaffirm self-identity and expose it to affective flows in non-conscious ways. In digitized environments, bodies may not meet up but identities can still be recharged by these flows to reinforce imitative beliefs and actions. Capitalizing on these flows, agencies of desire and control can effortlessly reshape subjectivity to instil conformity as well as a sense of togetherness in intrinsically alienating conditions. Hence, social avalanches may not necessarily inhibit identities but rather re-enhance them through affective flows within assemblages of control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article aims to highlight some peculiar aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic thanks to the theoretical tools of Cultural Theory and Cultural Sociology. For this purpose, first of all, I introduce the issue of the pandemic from a cultural perspective. In the second section, I analyze the phenomenon of the COVID-19 pandemic through the concept of 'pollution': in symbolic terms, the dimension of contagion is very close to that of 'contamination'. From this particular theoretical perspective, however, 'contamination' is not understood only in its material but also in its symbolic meaning. The third section focuses on the different forms of 'blaming' that have been activated during the pandemic time: to protect and strengthen the social bond threatened by the anguish of contagion, different targets have been identified on which to 'blame' the spread of the virus. In the conclusions, I summarize the reasoning developed in the article in an overall way, trying to briefly show how Cultural Theory and Cultural Sociology can offer a useful contribution to the analysis of the pandemic catastrophe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do male-dominated populist radical right (PRR) parties relate to and influence norms around women's political inclusion and leadership in mainstream political parties? While research has focused on describing the male dominance of PRR parties or its influence on mainstream political parties' policies, particularly immigration, we know less about how PRR parties relate to norms on women's inclusion or gender-balanced representation in mainstream parties. In a theory-building effort, we posit that PRR parties may seek to (a) adapt to mainstream parties' norms and include more women in leading positions (positive contagion) or (b) negatively affect or even challenge norms around women's inclusion in mainstream parties (adverse contagion). Seeking to theorize this relationship further, we explore leadership selection in the Swedish Parliament, where gender balance constitutes a strong norm. Yet, following the 2022 elections, the proportion of women parliamentary leaders dipped below 30% for the first time in decades. At the same time, the Sweden Democrats, a male-dominated PRR party, emerged as the second-largest party in Parliament. Drawing on interviews with nomination committees, party documents, and data on leadership, we empirically investigate continuity and change in committee leadership appointments in the Swedish Parliament and the role of the radical right in this process. We do not find signs of adverse contagion in the short run: as of 2023, norms promoting gender balance appear to remain robust and enjoy widespread support among mainstream parties. Yet, neither do we find signs of positive contagion where the radical right adapts to mainstream norms around gender balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empathy is a complex, multi‐dimensional capacity that facilitates the sharing and understanding of others' emotions. As our closest living relatives, bonobos (Pan paniscus) and chimpanzees (P. troglodytes) provide an opportunity to explore the origins of hominin social cognition, including empathy. Despite certain assumptions that bonobos and chimpanzees may differ empathically, these species appear to overlap considerably in certain socio‐emotional responses related to empathy. However, few studies have systematically tested for species variation in Pan empathic or socio‐emotional tendencies. To address this, we synthesise the growing literature on Pan empathy to inform our understanding of the selection pressures that may underlie the evolution of hominin empathy, and its expression in our last common ancestor. As bonobos and chimpanzees show overlaps in their expression of complex socio‐emotional phenomena such as empathy, we propose that group comparisons may be as or more meaningful than species comparisons when it comes to understanding the evolutionary pressures for such behaviour. Furthermore, key differences, such as how humans and Pan communicate, appear to distinguish how we experience empathy compared to our closest living relatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Claiming causal inferences in network settings necessitates careful consideration of the often complex dependency between outcomes for actors. Of particular importance are treatment spillover or outcome interference effects. We consider causal inference when the actors are connected via an underlying network structure. Our key contribution is a model for causality when the underlying network is endogenous; where the ties between actors and the actor covariates are statistically dependent. We develop a joint model for the relational and covariate generating process that avoids restrictive separability and fixed network assumptions, as these rarely hold in realistic social settings. While our framework can be used with general models, we develop the highly expressive class of Exponential-family Random Network models (ERNM) of which Markov random fields and Exponential-family Random Graph models are special cases. We present potential outcome-based inference within a Bayesian framework and propose a modification to the exchange algorithm to allow for sampling from ERNM posteriors. We present results of a simulation study demonstrating the validity of the approach. Finally, we demonstrate the value of the framework in a case study of smoking in the context of adolescent friendship networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article evaluates the place of The Plague in the emergent cultural memory of the COVID-19 pandemic, a time when the novel was said to have "gone viral" in popular culture. I ask what it means to reread The Plague in the current moment, a time characterized not just by a pandemic but by widespread unrest and social movements on both ends of the political spectrum. While rereadings of Camus in light of COVID-19 seem predicated on a turn away from the novel's allegorical dimension, The Plague has taken on new metaphorical meanings in its Covid-era reception. Examining the proliferation of "readings" of the pandemic, in which the virus has been understood as a figure for collective social ills, this article highlights the place of Camus's novel in the cultural memory of the crisis and proposes that it can illuminate some of the complex entanglements of our present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Made for BBC Radio 3, The Midnight Cry of the Deathbird (2012) is an adaptation of F. W. Murnau's German expressionist silent film Nosferatu (1922), which serves as both a target text (of Bram Stoker's novel Dracula, 1897) and a source text (of The Midnight Cry). Thus, complex layers of adaptation and audience expectations are evoked through medium-specific qualities, such as the ability of radio to represent the immaterial or disembodied and multiple spaces at the same time, including a between-world along inside/outside worlds. Radio can exist almost entirely in the mind, effortlessly navigating between outer and inner dimensions. This article explores questions of narration, embodiment/non-corporeality and inner space. Using Scott McCloud's concept of radio as a 'mono-sensory medium', it centres primarily on the characters of the Nosferatu (a bodiless essence of contagion) and Roger, a friendly Everyman who serves as the listener's radio guide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined contagion involving the aggregate and regional housing markets of the United States (US) with other asset markets using multichannel tests during the 2007–2008 global financial crisis based on a unique high-frequency, i.e., daily data set. To arrive at bias free results several contagion tests: the Forbes and Rigobon (FR) correlation test for contagion, the Fry, Martin and Tang coskewness (CS) test for contagion, the Hsiao cokurtosis (CK) test for contagion and the Hsiao covolatility (CV) test for contagion were employed. At the country level, the linear (correlation) channel indicates that contagion is present from (to) average housing returns to (from) the S&P500, with the correlation contagion also running from average housing returns to REITs. Moreover, the coskewness, cokurtosis and covolatility channels are strongly active with contagion running only from average housing returns to the S&P500, bond returns and REITs. At the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level, our results indicate that the linear (correlation) channel of contagion is relatively inactive, but the coskewness, cokurtosis and covolatility channels are strongly active with contagion running mostly from housing returns to the S&P500. Our results have important implications for investor and policymakers, given the possibility of differential results based on tests and whether we rely on regional or aggregate data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide the mathematical and empirical foundations of the friendship paradox in networks, often stated as "Your friends have more friends than you." We prove a set of network properties on friends of friends and characterize the concepts of ego-based and alter-based means. We propose a network property called inversity that quantifies the imbalance in degrees across edges and prove that the sign of inversity determines the ordering between ego-based or alter-based means for any network, with implications for interventions. Network intervention problems like immunization benefit from using highly connected nodes. We characterize two intervention strategies based on the friendship paradox to obtain such nodes, with the alter-based and ego-based strategy. Both strategies provide provably guaranteed improvements for any network structure with variation in node degrees. We demonstrate that the proposed strategies obtain several-fold improvement (100-fold in some networks) in node degree relative to a random benchmark, for both generated and real networks. We evaluate how inversity informs which strategy works better based on network topology and show how network aggregation can alter inversity. We illustrate how the strategies can be used to control contagion of an epidemic spreading across a set of village networks, finding that these strategies require far fewer nodes to be immunized (less than 50%, relative to random). The interventions do not require knowledge of network structure, are privacy-sensitive, are flexible for time-sensitive action, and only require selected nodes to nominate network neighbors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how touch and temporal closeness illuminate the intersubjective nature of Montaigne's Essais. Working against the assumptions towards individuality that often emerge in readings of Montaigne, it asks how the confluences of contemporaneity, contagion, compassion, and community offer alternative ways of understanding the relations between self and other. It considers Erich Auerbach's chapter of Mimesis on Montaigne, 'L'Humaine Condition', in relation to Montaigne's later comment in 'Du Repentir' that he is living through the 'contagion d'un siecle si gasté'. The paper questions how Montaigne perceives himself to be a part of his contemporary moment, as well as what it means to read Montaigne now in a contemporary way; in so doing, it amends existing definitions of the contemporary as an individual concern. This article ends by theorising that the contemporary is indeed a form of contagion – a way of thinking beyond periodisation and the boundaries it imposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the sudden spate of stories concerning the so-called "blue gum negro" (the Blue Gum) that circulated in the national press from the late 1880s to the late 1890s. These reports concerned purportedly blue-gummed, Black assailants, whose bite was alleged to be poisonous, and of whom African Americans were supposedly terrified. This article argues that, although these narratives reinforced white notions of Black criminality and credulity, they marked a particular moment of racialization, in which fears of bodily contagion, generated by the recent revolution in germ theory, were harnessed to notions of embodied racial difference, to express and galvanize white anxieties about racial impurity. Because Blue Gums embodied dysgenic menace, white journalists and writers were often reluctant to disavow their existence, instead capitalizing on the slippage between figurative and literal language that characterized discourse on race. However, in appropriating Black culture and presenting a figure from folklore as a racial type, white writers betrayed not only the essentially superstitious character of racial thought but also the interwoven nature of dominant and subjugated cultures in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the international impact of recent financial crises on contagion dynamics within international equity portfolios. First, we highlight the importance of macroeconomics for portfolio weighting for each region, and then we examine contagion via a structural regime-switching model and a contagion test. We also examine sources of contagion using regime variables, crisis events, and macroeconomic variables. In particular, we study the Argentine debt crisis, the US financial crisis, and the EU sovereign debt crisis. The macroeconomic variables include changes in market capitalization, trade integration, GDP growth, inflation rate, and interest rate. We also employ two classifications, one relating to the portfolio weighting scheme and another one that considers implied global and regional betas. The empirical findings reveal the existence of financial contagion for all the crises that we investigate. Both methods produce similar results. Stronger contagion is evident for global rather than regional betas. Europe is the region with the highest level of contagion and the one mostly affected by the crises. As far as macroeconomic variables are concerned, they are very important in two ways. They statistically significantly explain contagion, while they also reveal contagion under various portfolio weighting schemes. Both methods suggest that the Argentinian crisis mainly contributes to contagion. The research implications suggest that asset allocation and portfolio management should consider both the global and the regional aspects of contagion as differences can occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contagion occurs when cross-market correlation increases because of a shock to one market. Identifying shocks as episodes of house price exuberance, we provide evidence for contagion effects among the largest metropolitan markets in the US. We find that changes in income, interest rates, and unemployment also create contagion effects. These empirical findings are consistent with a model in which shocks to house prices and economic variables relax household down payment constraints and increase household mobility and housing demand. These effects are explored in an equilibrium framework in which house prices and household choices are determined endogenously, and we account for this endogeneity in our empirical study. Our results are robust to various empirical specifications, and we discuss the implications of these findings for households and investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use textual analysis of earnings conference calls held by listed firms around the world to measure the amount of risk managers and investors at each firm associated with each country at each point in time. Flexibly aggregating this firm-country-quarter-level data allows us to systematically identify spikes in perceived country risk ("crises") and document their source and pattern of transmission to foreign firms. While this pattern usually follows a gravity structure, it often changes dramatically during crises. For example, while crises originating in developed countries propagate disproportionately to foreign financial firms, emerging market crises transmit less financially and more to traditionally exposed countries. We apply our measures to show that elevated perceptions of a country's riskiness, particularly those of foreign and financial firms, are associated with significant falls in local asset prices, capital outflows, and an increased likelihood of a sudden stop. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the concept of endogenous information leadership within the financial market. Prior to coordinating their investments, investors establish a star network at a certain cost. The central node of this star network functions as an information leader, collecting and sharing information with all network members, thereby enhancing the chances of successful coordination. We delve deeper into the process of selecting the information leader by introducing a name market, inspired by Tadelis (1999), to identify individuals with the highest leadership potential to assume this role. The interplay between leadership selection through the name market and successful coordination creates a reinforcing loop. The emergence of contagion is attributed to leadership dynamics. Furthermore, we identify an equilibrium where leadership alternates. Our findings provide new insights into the regulation of social media platforms.

Empathic accuracy, the ability to accurately understand others' emotions, is typically viewed as beneficial for mental health. However, empathic accuracy may be problematic when a close relational partner is depressed because it promotes shared depression. Across two studies, we measured empathic accuracy using laboratory tasks that capture the ability to rate others' emotional valence accurately over time: first, in a sample of 156 neurotypical married couples (Study 1; Total N=312), and then in a sample of 102 informal caregivers of individuals with dementia (Study 2). Across both studies, the association between empathic accuracy and depressive symptoms varied as a function of a partner's level of depressive symptoms. Greater empathic accuracy was associated with (a) fewer depressive symptoms when a partner lacked depressive symptoms, but (b) more depressive symptoms when a partner had high levels of depressive symptoms. Accurately detecting changes in others' emotional valence may underpin shared depressive symptoms.

In a randomized study, leveraging covariates related to the outcome (e.g. disease status) may produce less variable estimates of the effect of exposure. For contagion processes operating on a contact network, transmission can only occur through ties that connect affected and unaffected individuals; the outcome of such a process is known to depend intimately on the structure of the network. In this paper, we investigate the use of contact network features as efficiency covariates in exposure effect estimation. Using augmented generalized estimating equations (GEE), we estimate how gains in efficiency depend on the network structure and spread of the contagious agent or behavior. We apply this approach to simulated randomized trials using a stochastic compartmental contagion model on a collection of model-based contact networks and compare the bias, power, and variance of the estimated exposure effects using an assortment of network covariate adjustment strategies. We also demonstrate the use of network-augmented GEEs on a clustered randomized trial evaluating the effects of wastewater monitoring on COVID-19 cases in residential buildings at the the University of California San Diego.

We trace the rumour that two undeveloped regions were to be administratively merged into Beijing, which is the capital of China. Applying a difference-in-difference approach, we find that housing listing prices in the two undeveloped regions declined by 25.1% after local governments clarified the rumour. Our results are robust after considering possible confounders such as contemporary housing market policies, business cycles and migrations. The price reduction caused by the rumour collapse averages to 347–396 thousand yuan, a comparable number to the value of 'Hukou' in Beijing. Finally, we show that herding and speculation accelerate the price bust after the rumour collapses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on live streams as interactional phenomena from an ethnomethodology and conversation analysis (EMCA) perspective. It discusses how streamers and viewers manage attention and engagement and how noticing-based actions constitute a powerful and crucial resource to produce and display these, finely tuned to the asymmetric communicative affordances of live streams, which, in the case of expository live streams, enact a streamer on display for the perceptual consumption of remote viewers. It discusses how streamers and viewers may produce noticing sequences and noticing-based sequences. It also discusses how the orientation towards noticing in expository live streams may become contagious and lead to a 'noticing effervescence.' • Streams and streamers are oriented toward eliciting various responses from viewers. • A powerful resource for viewers to achieve engagement is to send messages designed as noticing-based actions. • Noticing-based actions index some prior perceptual realization regarding features or events in the stream. • Noticing-based action implies that what is treated as noticeable is deeply embedded in message designs. • Such an action format casts viewers as onlookers, framing the streaming activity as a spectacle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]