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The research aims to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic indices in the Fragile Five countries in 2007-2021. In the study, the consumer confidence index, economic confidence index, VIX fear index, and economic discontent indices were used as variables, and four dependent variables were analyzed and interpreted for the independent variable in four different panel data models. As a result of the analysis, it was found that while TGE was the dependent variable, it was only affected by the EGE variable. At the same time, it was the dependent variable and had no relationship with other variables; while VIX was the dependent variable, it was adversely affected by the HRE variable. While IHE was the dependent variable, it was adversely affected by the change in the EGE and VIX variables. The findings have a unique value for international investors and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically investigates the asymmetric effects of different economic variables including uncertainty caused by government policies on the two main US consumer confidence indices. This paper further investigates whether COVID‐19 has any significant effect on the relationship between US consumer confidence indices and their determinants. The empirical investigation is conducted by means of non‐linear asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) tests, so that the asymmetric effect of uncertainty and other determinants on consumer confidence may be studied. The paper applies monthly data from January 2010 to December 2021. Results indicate that the COVID‐19 pandemic did not alter the stability of the long‐term relationship between the consumer confidence indices and their determinants. Uncertainty imposed by government policies plays a significant role before and, more prominently, during the pandemic. The increased effect of the uncertainty may be due to the jump in economic uncertainty during the COVID era. Our work may help to foster consumer confidence in terms of macroeconomic policy variables. The results can also expand the scope of investors' decision making as it provides an in‐depth understanding of the drivers of consumers' confidence in the US economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some financial relations have been confirmed to be different overnight and intraday due to different clienteles. In this paper, we assess the impact of investor sentiment on stock market returns in 30 international stock markets overnight and intraday. At the global level, empirical evidence reveals a negative sentiment-return relation in both non-trading and trading hours, and the relation is stronger intraday than overnight, indicating that overnight traders are more rational than intraday traders. The separation between developed and emerging markets does not distort the negative relation or the stronger impact intraday. At the individual market level, results reveal a high degree of heterogeneity in the sentiment-return relation, in terms of both influence direction and magnitude. The heterogeneity can be explained by cross-market differences in cultural dimensions and market integrity, and notably, such influence varies across night and day, suggesting that the influence of the two aspects may be more complex than we used to theorize and therefore, future studies applying the cross-market analytical framework may take different clienteles into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce the mixed-frequency data model (MIDAS) to China's insurance demand forecasting. We select the monthly indicators Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), China Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU), Consumer Price Index (PPI), and quarterly indicator Depth of Insurance (TID) to construct a Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression model, which is used to study the impact and forecasting effect of CCI, EPU, and PPI on China's insurance demand. To ensure forecasting accuracy, we investigate the forecasting effects of the MIDAS models with different weighting functions, forecasting windows, and a combination of forecasting methods, and use the selected optimal MIDAS models to forecast the short-term insurance demand in China. The experimental results show that the MIDAS model has good forecasting performance, especially in short-term forecasting. Rolling window and recursive identification prediction can improve the prediction accuracy, and the combination prediction makes the results more robust. Consumer confidence is the main factor influencing the demand for insurance during the COVID-19 period, and the demand for insurance is most sensitive to changes in consumer confidence. Shortly, China's insurance demand is expected to return to the pre-COVID-19 level by 2023Q2, showing positive development. The findings of the study provide new ideas for China's insurance policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic factors, microstructure factors, uncertainty indexes, the investor sentiment, and global shock factors on the dynamic efficiency of G7 stock markets. We use a non-Bayesian Generalized least squares-based time-varying model by Ito et al. (Appl Econ 46(23):2744–2754, 2014; Appl Econ 48(7):621–635, 2016) and the time-varying adjusted market efficiency method. The results show using the augmented mean group estimator and heterogeneous panel causality method a strong relationship between stock market efficiency and oil prices. In addition, all stock markets became more inefficient during COVID-19 crisis and upward trend in oil prices. Furthermore, by means of the heterogeneous panel causality test, we find evidence of unidirectional from all the considered factors, except for the consumer confidence index variable, to stock market efficiency. Moreover, we show a significant bidirectional causality between the time-varying market efficiency and both interest rates, exchange rates, market volatility, economic policy uncertainty, and the composite leading indicator. The implications of our findings for investors and policymakers are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently (May 2022–January 2024), the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose +40%, and the yield on one-month commercial paper rose +520%. During this period, stocks did just fine, with the Top-100 up +26% and the S&P Industrials climbing +23%. The US economy also grew, with real GDP up +3.6%. Yet, S&P Utilities fell −13% and institutional-quality low-leverage core real estate declined by −17%. The original version of this article (based on May 2022 data) concluded that core institutional real estate was essentially immune to rising interest rates (or declining). But the data since May 2022 strongly suggest the opposite conclusion. This update provides a revised analysis, taking advantage of the data since May 2022 and fully incorporating the staggering interest rate increases since that date. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impact of changes in consumer confidence and uncertainty related to economic policy, financial markets, and the crude oil market, on the returns and risk of the UK travel and leisure stock index. Using monthly data from November 2005 to February 2021 and applying quantile regressions and copula-based conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) measures, the results are as follows. First, consumer confidence and uncertainties significantly impact the travel and leisure index returns across various quantiles, however, the impact is stronger at the left tail than the right tail; furthermore, the sign and magnitude of the impact differ across the various uncertainty measures. Second, there are significant upside and downside extreme risk spillovers from the extreme movements in the consumer confidence and uncertainty indices to travel and leisure index returns, with evidence of an asymmetric impact. Third, the results are influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic and global financial crisis. These findings have implications for market participants, such as portfolio managers, individual and institutional investors, and policymakers in the UK travel and leisure industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we present a two-step method for predicting price bubbles in precious metals, which combines a widely recognized right-tailed unit root test to detect bubbles with various machine learning algorithms to pinpoint the potential predictors of bubble formation and their relative significance. We utilize logistic regression, support vector machines, CART, random forests, extreme gradient boosting, and neural networks algorithms, which are more precise than traditional methods in making predictions and can handle binary classification and regression issues. Our analysis covers monthly prices for gold, silver, palladium, and platinum from 1990M1-2022M10. The study extends the literature by utilizing the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to identify potential price bubbles and analyzing the effect of macroeconomic, financial, and uncertainty factors on the likelihood of bubbles using machine learning algorithms. The findings indicate that macroeconomic factors play a significant role in the formation of price bubbles in precious metals; specifically the consumer confidence index in the USA was a common factor that had a positive impact on the likelihood of bubbles in gold, platinum, and silver. However, the leading factors in the formation of bubbles in palladium were found to be financial variables and uncertainty variables. As predicting bubbles is crucial for regulators and policymakers to take preventive measures against future crises, identifying the key predictors of bubble formation and forecasting them in the early stages is essential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the asymmetric effects of consumer confidence on personal credit card expenditures in Turkey. To this end, the impact of the consumer confidence index on real credit card spending is investigated from January 2013 to June 2023 using the threshold generalized method of moments (GMM). The linear GMM model findings indicate that consumer confidence increases real credit card expenditures. Furthermore, when the threshold GMM model is estimated using the annual percentage change of the consumer confidence index as a threshold variable, the coefficients differ across low- and high-confidence regimes. More specifically, the consumer confidence index has a statistically significant positive impact on credit card expenditure in the low-confidence regime but not in the high-confidence regime. This indicates that the optimistic expectations of economic units in a lowconfidence environment may stimulate credit card spending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the quality of China' s economic development has been continuously improved. However, the year 2022 witnessed a subdued economic growth rate. The triple pressures continue to evolve, with contraction in demand as the primary contradiction facing China' s macro economy in the short term. In contrast to major economies in the world, China grapples with a low economic growth-inflation index combination, a pace of economic expansion trailing behind its potential, and a mounting unemployment rate. The impact of supply on price increases weakens, while the global industrial and supply chains are amidst continuous adjustments. Both the consumer confidence index (CCI) and the purchasing managers' index (PMI) remain low. The expectation for the depreciation of the RMB against US dollar is weakening. In 2023, China will continue to improve the financing environment and carry out a proactive fiscal policy. Simultaneously, there is a moderation trend in the trajectory of the interest rate of the Federal Reserve System hikes. Taken together, these factors (triple pressures) are expected to mitigate the contraction in demand, thereby steering the economy toward robust growth. However, it is crucial to recognize that low economic growth in the long term may compromise the quality of economic development. The year 2023 is the first year of accelerating Chinese modernization after the 20th National Congress of the CPC. China should integrate the strategy to expand internal demand with its efforts to deepen supply-side structural reform. This can foster the coordinated growth of both economic quality and speed, making a good start for Chinese modernization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In April 2020, Spain's Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) changed its survey mode from face-to-face (PAPI/CAPI) to telephone-based (CATI). In this study we examine the impact of this change on two CIS barometer variables: marital status and education level. We describe their evolution from 2013 to 2023 using the Consumer Confidence Index (ICC), a continuous survey that has always been telephone-based, as a comparative reference. As we will see, the change in mode produced discontinuities in the measurement of education level, with implications for the quality and interpretation of results. In addition, the evidence suggests that the private research companies the CIS contracted to carry out telephone fieldwork had their own biases that must be taken into account for series comparison and monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the impacts of the exchange rate, consumer confidence, oil prices on the stock returns of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) manufacturing firms for the timeline aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic (March 2020 -- September 2022). As the manufacturing companies comprise the majority of the stock market of the BIST, the composite index of these industrial companies (XUSIN) is selected as the response variable. Implementing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds-testing methodology on the monthly time series data, the cointegration existence is detected among the series. The empirical results also show that oil price is the most significant determinant among these variables affecting manufacturing companies' returns for the long-run. When considering oil as a vital production input in industries, the decreases in stock prices resulting from oil price rises (i.e. increases in production costs) are inevitable. However, the significant long-run effects of exchange rates and the consumer confidence index on stock returns of this industry cannot be detected for the Covid-19 period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Marmara University Social Sciences Institute / Öneri is the property of Marmara University, Institute of Social Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Crises will always change society. Since 2020, since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the world economy has had many trials to overcome. Likewise, the values of states or state alliances prioritizing their citizens' medical, social, and economic well-being have also been tested. The European Union was severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, but two years after its appearance, another critical event would accentuate the existing problems and put it in great difficulty. This critical event is the war started by Russia against Ukraine in February 2022. Given the desire Ukraine expressed since 2014 through the EUROMAIDAN movement, the EU could not remain indifferent to what was happening there, and from the very first moments of the war, it showed its support for economic, military, and diplomatic relations towards Ukraine. Thus, the second economic power of the world had to put the decent living and well-being of its citizens to the test in order to save its people. However, it is crucial how much the standard of living of the Europeans suffered compared to the citizens of the states that also contributed to helping Ukraine. Through a difference-in-difference analysis (DID), this article aims to observe how large the discrepancy was between the sacrifice made by Europeans compared to the sacrifice made by other people regarding the values of the consumer price index and consumer confidence index. One thing is sure: regardless of cost, people's freedom, peace, and life are priceless. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work presents how changes in the economic climate have affected consumer sentiment. Changes in the volume of GDP, industrial production, total consumption, consumption in the household sector and capital accumulation between 2018 and 2022 were analysed on a quarterly basis. The values of the main indicators reflecting consumer sentiment are also presented: the current consumer confidence index and the leading consumer confidence index. The consumer confidence indicators are also presented at the end of the individual quarters from 2018 to 2022. The results show that consumers observe the changing economic reality and do not always assess these changes positively, even if the effect of these changes indicate an increase in GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study aims to test the impact of financial investors' sentiment on the returns of IDX Index (JKSE) stocks in the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the period from 2001-2022 using the autoregressive model conditional on the generalized inhomogeneity of variance (GARCH). The study was based on the monthly data of each of the consumer confidence index, which expresses investor sentiment, and the returns of the (JKSE) index. The results showed that there was a statistically significant positive effect of the changes in investor sentiment on the returns of the (JKSE) index during the study period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tourism is a rapidly rising sector that contributes significantly to economies. In this paper, we apply a bootstrap full-sample causality test, parameter stability test, and quantile-on-quantile approach test so as to examine the relationship between consumer confidence index (CCI) and outward tourism expenditure (OTE) for the period between 1998:Q1 to 2021:Q4. The results of the findings reflect that CCI tends to exert a positive impact on the OTE in most of the quantiles. This essentially implies that consumer confidence in China can act as a compound for outbound tourism expenditure in nature. Therefore, it can be affirmed that the OTE tends not to have an effect on the CCI, thus extending the implication that an alteration in the private outbound tourism spending in most likely to be insufficient for the modification of the factor of consumer confidence. To ensure the robustness of the results, we have employed the quantile-based granger causality to investigate the causal relationship in quantile between CCI on the OTE. The results of this study tend to educate the foreign tourism policymakers, while at the same time making forecasts of the tourism arrivals from China. Policymakers can then plan their tourism strategies, ideally including the CCI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Mental Health Concerns (MHC) index is constructed using Google Trends data. • We study if economic uncertainty raises concerns about mental health in the U.S. • A positive shock to uncertainty is shown to raise MHC index. This paper investigates if heightened economic uncertainty raises concerns about mental health in the U.S. We first quantify such concerns by constructing a composite Mental Health Concerns index, using time series of the intensity of Google search queries related to mental disorders and distress. This index i) rises significantly during the three recessionary episodes and ii) comoves negatively with survey responses that reflect views on current consumer sentiment or on future economic conditions. We find that the concerns regarding mental health substantially increase after an unexpected hike in economic uncertainty; uncertainty not only channels through its negative impacts on economic activity, but also directly affects the level of concerns. Our findings suggest that an uncertainty shock can have a far-reaching impact on overall welfare of economic agents by leaving them more concerned about mental health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research studies the impact of online news on social and economic consumer perceptions through semantic network analysis. Using over 1.8 million online articles on Italian media covering four years, we calculate the semantic importance of specific economic-related keywords to see if words appearing in the articles could anticipate consumers' judgments about the economic situation and the Consumer Confidence Index. We use an innovative approach to analyze big textual data, combining methods and tools of text mining and social network analysis. Results show a strong predictive power for the judgments about the current households and national situation. Our indicator offers a complementary approach to estimating consumer confidence, lessening the limitations of traditional survey-based methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of the global economic downturn, the approach guided by consumer loans (CL) to boost consumer confidence is a feasible way to promote the internal circulation of the Chinese economy. Therefore, we use a time-varying rolling-window approach to identify how CL affects the consumer confidence index (CCI). We find that CL can be seen as vital support for promoting confidence because it can ease liquidity constraints and improve consumption levels. The empirical outcome is supported by the Rational Expectations Perpetual Income Hypothesis (RE-PIH), emphasizing that increasing CL can boost consumer confidence. Conversely, CCI has both positive and negative effects on CL. The positive effects suggest that consumers' optimistic confidence leads them to increase borrowing, which in turn creates a heavier debt burden. This statement cannot be supported by the negative effect due to consumers' blind self-confidence will cause cognitive bias, which is not conducive to the loan market development. Against the backdrop of increased global uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the government's continuous adjustment of loan policies, consumers can effectively optimise their consumption decision-making through borrowing. The policymaker can maintain loan stability by effectively promoting consumer confidence and raising the consumption level of the whole society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

consumer confidence index, foreign exchange rate, unemployment rate, corruption control index, inflation rate Psychological factors play an important role in the economy and in predicting the state of the economy. One of the measurement tools of these factors is the consumer confidence index (CCI), which has recently received much attention from both researchers and policymakers. For years, Bank Indonesia has conducted surveys through face-to-face and phone call interviews with several respondents who were used as research samples to control information on economic fundamentals. The purpose of this study is to explore a new variable that is thought to affect the consumer confidence index in Indonesia and explain the influence between variables from the results of secondary data processing. This study used the multivariate regression model and t-test equations with a significance level of 5%. The variables used in this study are the foreign exchange rate, unemployment rate, corruption control index, inflation rate, and consumer confidence index from January 2015 to December 2019 in Indonesia. The results conclude that Indonesia's consumer confidence index is influenced by the inflation rate, the unemployment rate, the exchange rate, and the conditions for controlling corruption. The multivariate regression model generated from this study is a novelty in research on the consumer confidence index. This study also provides an alternative way for Bank Indonesia to evaluate the consumer confidence index, which previously used the face-to-face interview method, and the phone survey turned into using secondary data source. The use of secondary data for the multivariate regression model will accelerate policy making and is more efficient in terms of costs.

This study performs the bootstrap full- and sub-sample rolling-window Granger causality tests, in order to investigate the time-varying causal relationship between the consumer confidence index (CCI) and the outbound tourism expenditure (OTM) in China. For this purpose, it introduces the variable of consumer confidence as a subjective psychological perception variable into the gravity model and explores its impact on the outbound travel. The results reveal that CCI tends to exert positive impacts on the OTM in most subsamples. That is to say that the Chinese consumer confidence can be considered as a catalyst for the OTM. However, the impact tends to be negative during times such as the global financial crisis, caused by the appreciation in the renminbi. In turn, OTM does not affect CCI. This suggests that the only change of private expenditure on outbound tourism cannot alter consumer confidence regarding the current economic and income situation. These findings compel the foreign tourism authorities to take CCI into account, especially when predicating the tourism arrivals from China, and hence plan their tourism strategy accordingly. Also, Chinese travel agencies should ideally take notice of the CCI in order to plan their international tour packages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents evidence on the relationship between consumer sentiment and resource adjustment decisions. Consumer sentiment is an important piece of economic information, accepted as a reliable predictor of future economic activity, which is why it should influence managerial expectations underlying future-oriented resource adjustment decisions. In line with these considerations, I find that managers are more likely to retain slack resources following a decrease in sales when consumer sentiment about future business prospects is improving. Managers seem to adopt consumers' optimism about future economic prospects by deciding to stall resource adjustments until sales recover to avoid current and future adjustment costs, thus increasing firms' level of sticky cost behavior. Together with various additional analyses, this study provides new insights into managers' resource adjustment decision-making process and enhances our understanding of the information upon which managers form their expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The consumer confidence index is a leading indicator of regional socioeconomic development. Forecasting research on it helps to grasp the future economic trends and consumption trends of regional development in advance. The data contained on the Internet in the era of big data can truly and timely reflect the current economic trends. This paper constructs a conceptual framework for the relationship between the consumer confidence index and web search keywords. It employed six machine learning and deep learning models: the BP neural network, the convolutional neural network, support vector regression, random forest, the ELMAN neural network, and the extreme learning machine to predict the consumer confidence index. The study shows that the use of machine learning models has a better prediction effect on the consumer confidence index. Compared with other models, the BP neural network and the convolutional neural network have lower error indicators and higher model accuracy, which helps decision-makers forecast the consumer confidence index. Consumers search for various goods and prices, as well as macroeconomics, to understand the economic conditions of the market, which affects the consumer confidence index and consumption decisions. Therefore, web search data can be used to predict consumer confidence. Future research can be extended to other macro indicator-related prediction studies. It is important to promote market consumption and confidence, improve consumption policies, and promote national prosperity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Polish Statistician / Wiadomości Statystyczne is the property of State Treasury - Statistics Poland and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar is the property of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekomomik Yorumlar and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Purpose – This study explores the response of consumer confidence in policy uncertainty in the Japanese context. The study also considers the dynamism of stock market behavior and financial stress and its impact on consumer confidence, which has remained unaddressed in the literature. The role of these control variables has important implications for policy discussions, particularly when other countries can learn from Japanese experiences. Design/methodology/approach – The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model postulated by Shin et al. (2014) was used for studying the asymmetric response of consumer confidence to policy uncertainty. This method has improved estimates compared to traditional linear cointegration methods. Findings – The findings confirm the asymmetric impact of policy uncertainty on the consumer confidence index in Japan. The impact of the rise in policy uncertainty is greater than that of a fall in asymmetry on consumer confidence in Japan. Furthermore, the Wald test confirmed asymmetric behavior. Originality/value – The contribution of this study is threefold. First, this study contributes to the extant literature by analyzing the asymmetric response of consumer confidence to policy uncertainty, controlling for both the financial stress and stock price indices. Second, to test the robustness of the exercise, the study utilized different frequencies of observations. Third, this study is the first to utilize the concept of Arbatli et al. (2017) to formulate a combined index of uncertainty based on economic policy uncertainty index, along with uncertainty indices such as fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policies to study the overall impact of policy uncertainty.

Decisions made by consumers depending on psychological factors affect the incomes of companies and, accordingly, the financial markets. In this study, the causality relationship between consumer confidence index, BIST 50 index and BIST electricity is discussed. In this study, which was conducted with the assumption that there may be a causal relationship between the consumer confidence index and BIST 50 and BIST electricity indices, the causality relationship between the consumer confidence index, BIST 50 index and BIST electricity index was examined with the Granger causality test covering the periods 2012:01-2022:06. As a result of the tests carried out considering the lag lengths, a one-way causality relationship was determined between the BIST 50 index and the BIST electricity index.

Purpose: In examining an economic fluctuation, researchers often refer to the theories of impaired access to capital which mostly explain, from the perspective of bank lending supplies, a shock in firm's access to investment would decrease its capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period. However, some studies show that this is not always the case. A demand shock theory can explain the decrease in firm's capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period, but there should be no causal link between the two. This is because firms naturally do not invest during crisis period because of a decrease in investment wealth during crisis period. This paper aims to examine these theories with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia. Design/methodology/approach: The change in firms' capital expenditure and net debt issuance is analyzed using a non-parametric difference-in-difference and matching estimator across four firm-dimensions to see whether the implications of the supply shock theory apply to the current crisis or if that firms naturally do not invest during the crisis. In addition, this paper provides the result of panel regression to confirm the causal link between firms' investment funds and capital expenditure, with an addition of consumer confidence index to accommodate the implications of the demand shock theory. Findings: The results of this paper show that the implications of the supply shock theory cannot explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. Rather, the results suggest that firms naturally do not want to invest during the crisis and that the demand shock can better explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. This is confirmed by the result of panel regression which shows that only consumer confidence index has a significant positive relationship with firms' capital expenditure. Originality/value: This is the first study to examine the theory of impaired access to capital with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to forecast the development performance of important economies in a smart city using mixed-frequency data. Design/methodology/approach: This study introduces reverse unrestricted mixed-data sampling (RUMIDAS) to support vector regression (SVR) to develop a novel RUMIDAS-SVR model. The RUMIDAS-SVR model was estimated using a quadratic programming problem. The authors then use the novel RUMIDAS-SVR model to forecast the development performance of all high-tech listed companies, an important sector of the economy reflecting the potential and dynamism of urban economic development in Shanghai using the mixed-frequency consumer price index (CPI) producer price index (PPI), and consumer confidence index (CCI) as predictors. Findings: The empirical results show that the established RUMIDAS-SVR is superior to the competing models with regard to mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and multi-source macroeconomic predictors contribute to the development performance forecast of important economies. Practical implications: Smart city policy makers should create a favourable macroeconomic environment, such as controlling inflation or stabilising prices for companies within the city, and companies within the important city economic sectors should take initiative to shoulder their responsibility to support the construction of the smart city. Originality/value: This study contributes to smart city monitoring by proposing and developing a new model, RUMIDAS-SVR, to help the construction of smart cities. It also empirically provides strategic insights for smart city stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existing literature on the impact of oil supply shocks on real economic activity after the mid-1980s still fails to reach an agreement. This may be partly due to different identification assumptions and model specifications corresponding to the oil supply shock, and partly due to the oil supply shock identified previously is endogenous to real economic activity. In this paper, based on the proxy structural vector autoregressions (SAVRs), we identify an oil supply shock that is exogenous to real economic activity, and then study the impact of this shock on U.S. real economic activity. We find exogenous oil supply shocks have a very large and persistent impact on U.S. real economic activity after the mid-1980s. Besides, several new possible transmission channels through which exogenous oil supply shocks can influence U.S. real GDP are detected. Specifically, unfavorable exogenous oil supply shocks can lower the consumer sentiment index (CSI) and consumer confidence index (CCI), decrease real net exports of goods and services (NEGS) through the terms of trade (TOT) effect, and reduce real government consumption expenditures and gross investment of state and local (GCEGISL), thus leading to a decline in real GDP. These newly detected transmission channels are very important for policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Gumushane Universty Electronic Journal of the Faculty of Communication / Gümüshane Üniversitesi Iletisim Fakültesi Elektronik Dergisi is the property of Gumushane Universitesi Iletisim Fakultesi Elektronik Dergisi (e-GIFDER) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Academic Social Science Studies is the property of Journal of Academic Social Science Studies and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study tests the possible effect of sentiment on the performance of the tourism and leisure (T&L) industry. Using a portfolio consisting of U.S. publicly traded firms, we reveal that the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) are perhaps better candidates for capturing a contemporaneous relationship or making predictions about the performance of the T&L stocks than the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) or the Volatility Index (VIX). Macroeconomic variables have a limited contribution to the establishment of contemporaneous relationships and none of them is suitable for making predictions, which underscores the importance of addressing and paying attention to the issue of sentiment. Our results are robust using different empirical procedures such as ordinary least squares (OLS), GARCH, and quantile regressions. The findings may have important implications for policy makers at both the state and firm levels in light of increased uncertainty periods such as the ongoing coronavirus epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]