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Physical processes involved in the acceleration of stellar winds are essential in astrophysics as such winds are a mass loss process for stars. Hypothesis for stellar winds are difficult to check with experimental data in any other star but the Sun and even the processes of solar wind dynamics are poorly understood. Since the proposal by Parker of the stationary expansion of the solar atmosphere, the existence of the solar wind has been extensively demonstrated from data acquired from different missions in the Heliosphere. However, in-situ data showing that solar wind accelerates with the distance were still missing. Here we show the evolution of the solar wind speed distribution function with the heliocentric distance from 16 R⊙ to 172 R⊙ using Parker Solar Probe data. We observe that solar wind is accelerated until at least 60 R⊙, more than 20 R⊙ away than expected from previous studies. Below ∼ 25 R⊙ the subalfvenic wind dominates and is negligible from 35 R⊙ onwards. Here we find that the slow and fast winds are as mixed in the distribution function below 25 R⊙ as at 1 AU. Our findings provide empirical support for the models of solar wind dynamics.

The partial eruption of a filament channel with bifurcated substructures is investigated using datasets obtained from both ground-based and space-borne facilities. Small-scale flux reconnection/cancellation events in the region triggered the pile-up of ambient magnetic field, observed as bright EUV loops in close proximity of the filament channel. This led to the formation of a V-shaped cusp structure at the site of interaction between the coalesced EUV loops and the filament channel, with the presence of distinct plasmoid structures and associated bidirectional flows. Analysis of imaging data from SDO/AIA further suggests the vertical split of the filament structure into two substructures. The perturbed upper branch of the filament structure rose up and erupted with the onset of an energetic GOES M1.4 flare at 04:30 UT on January 28, 2015. The estimated twist number and squashing factor obtained from nonlinear force free-field extrapolation of the magnetic field data support the vertical split in filament structure with high twist in upper substructure. The loss in equilibrium of the upper branch due to torus instability, implying this as a potential triggering mechanism of the observed partial eruption., Comment: Accepted for Publication in MNRAS

The solar storms happened in early August 1972 have been recently described as an example of a space weather event due to its technological impacts. Besides the interest of this event for the space weather community, these storms were extensively analyzed by the scientific community in 1970s and 80s due to their relevance considering the enhanced levels of solar activity and also their interplanetary consequences. The passage of several interplanetary shocks was observed in Pioneers 9 and 10 data and also in Pognoz-1, Prognoz-2 and HEOS-2 data, making this event particularly suitable for the study of the evolution of the solar ejections in the Heliosphere. This work starts reviewing the papers on the interplanetary scenario during this event. Then, we revisit their conclusions considering the scientific advances since that date and finally go ahead in the analysis of the event.

Geomagnetic indices quantify the disturbance caused by the solar activity in particular regions of the Earth. Among them, the SYM-H and ASY-H indices represent the (longitudinally) symmetric and asymmetric geomagnetic disturbance of the horizontal component of the magnetic field at mid-latitude with a 1-minute resolution. Their resolution, along with their relation to the solar wind parameters, makes the forecasting of the geomagnetic indices a problem that can be addressed through the use of Deep Learning, particularly using Deep Neural Networks (DNN). In this work, we present two DNNs developed to forecast the SYM-H and ASY-H indices. Both networks have been trained using solar wind data from the last two solar cycles and they are able to accurately forecast the indices two hours in advance, considering the solar wind and indices values for the previous 16 hours. The evaluation of both networks reveals a great precision for the forecasting, including good predictions for large storms that occurred during the solar cycle 23.

Society’s dependence on technology has increased during the past years. Therefore, understanding the hazardous events including space weather events that lead to technological problems is now critical. As solar wind is the driver of space weather, identifying extreme solar wind is important. In this work extreme value theory is used to characterize the solar wind parameters most relevant to space weather: interplanetary magnetic field strength and proton speed. This is done using an extreme value distribution for all data above a certain threshold for each parameter. Analysis demonstrates that these thresholds are around 900 km/s for the proton speed and around 95 nT for the interplanetary magnetic field. Based on 20 years of solar wind data, we made an estimation for the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind proton speed with return periods corresponding to 4 and 6 solar cycles with a 99% confidence interval.

Geomagnetic indices quantify the disturbance caused by the solar activity on a planetary scale or in particular regions of the Earth. Among them, the SYM-H and ASY-H indices represent the (longitudinally) symmetric and asymmetric geomagnetic disturbance of the horizontal component of the magnetic field at midlatitude with a 1-min resolution. Their resolution, along with their relation to the solar wind parameters, makes the forecasting of the geomagnetic indices a problem that can be addressed through the use of Deep Learning, particularly using Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). In this work, we present two DNNs developed to forecast respectively the SYM-H and ASY-H indices. Both networks have been trained using the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) and the related index for the solar storms occurred in the last two solar cycles. As a result, the networks are able to accurately forecast the indices 2 h in advance, considering the IMF and indices values for the previous 200 min. The evaluation of both networks reveals a great forecasting precision, including good predictions for large storms that occurred during the solar cycle 23 and comparing with the persistence model for the period 2013-2020., Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad

We aim to investigate the distribution function of the iron charge state, at 1 AU to check if it corresponds to a bimodal wind. We use data from the Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer (SWICS) instrument on board the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) along 20 years. We propose the bi-Gaussian function as the probability distribution function that fits the average iron charge state, ⟨QFe⟩, distribution. We study the evolution of the parameters of the bimodal distribution with the solar cycle. We compare the outliers of the sample with the existing catalogs of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and identify new ICMEs. The ⟨QFe⟩ at 1 AU shows a bimodal distribution related to the solar cycle. Our results confirm that ⟨QFe⟩>12 is a trustworthy proxy for ICME identification and a reliable signature in the ICME boundary definition., Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad

Mid latitudes around 40 degree are influenced by effects typically found at both high and low latitudes. Moreover, the focus of the Solar Quiet ionospheric current system, drifts around these mid-latitudes. Consequently they have been considered as a complicated place to infer the geospace state from the ground and also complicated for practical procedures to generate geomagnetic indices. The procedure designed at the University of Alcala specially focused on removing solar regular variations at mid-latitudes is delivering a geomagnetic Local Disturbance index (LDi) in realtime. The same procedure can be used to produce global geomagnetic indices when applied to several geomagnetic stations at these latitudes. We present in this work the high-resolution (one minute) realtime production of ring current and auroral indices (MID-R, MID-E, MID-U and MID-L) similar to the well known Dst and AE indices for mid-latitudes which will help in the understanding of the complex physical processes that emerge at these latitudes. At the same time they fill a gap in the current operational space weather products available for these latitudes.

The boundaries of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are commonly established based on the magnetic field smoothness and/or the low temperature, when compared to normal solar wind. Based on the analysis of the ICME on 2015 January 6-7, observed by Wind and ACE spacecraft, Cid et al. (2016) proposed compositional signatures as the most precise diagnostic tool for the boundaries of ICMEs. Having as a starting point the ICMEs catalogues from Jian et al. (2006) and Richardson and Cane (2010), and the Wind spacecraft ICME catalogue on the NASA web site, we have compared the boundaries of all ICMEs observed by the ACE spacecraft attending to different signatures. This contribution shows the results of the study.

The main goal of this work is to separate the behavior of the two types of quiet solar wind at 1 AU: fast and slow.Our approach is a bi-Gaussian distribution function, formed by the addition of two Gaussian distribution functions, where each one represents one type of wind. We check our approach by fitting the bi-Gaussian to data from ACE spacecraft. We use level 2 data measured during solar cycles 23 and 24 of different solar wind parameters, including proton speed, proton temperature, density and magnetic field. Our results show that the approach is fine and only transient events departs from the proposed function. Moreover, we can show bi modal behavior of the solar wind at 1 AU, not only for the proton speed, but also for the other analyzed parameters. We also check the solar cycle dependence of the different fitting parameters.

SMOS is an Earth observing satellite that is been adapted to provide full polarization observations of the Sun at 1.4 GHz 24 hours a day. Its solar radio observations from the last decade will be released to the community by the middle of this year. In this presentation we show the capabilities of SMOS as a solar radio observatory and compare some of the most relevant radio bursts with data from GOES, LASCO, SDO and RSTN. We show how SMOS responds to different kinds of solar flares depending on their x-ray flux, and the kind of mass ejection or solar dimming that they have produced, if any. In addition to this we also show the potential of SMOS as a space weather tool to monitor GNSS satellites signal fades and to provide an early warning of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections.

We have investigated the case of a coronal mass ejection that was eroded by the fast wind of a coronal hole in the interplanetary medium. When a solar ejection takes place close to a coronal hole, the flux rope magnetic topology of the coronal mass ejection (CME) may become misshapen at 1 AU as a result of the interaction. Detailed analysis of this event reveals erosion of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) magnetic field. In this communication, we study the photospheric magnetic roots of the coronal hole and the coronal mass ejection area with HMI/SDO magnetograms to define their magnetic characteristics.

Magnetic instability is a key consideration for filament eruptions and subsequent CMEs. In this contribution we are considering different magnetic conditions for active and non-active regions, such as coronal hole regions and quiet sun, and also active regions of a simple magnetic configuration. The aim is to assess magnetic instability through potential and non-potential field modelling and 3D evaluation of the magnetic decay index. Some eruptive examples from solar cycle 24 using HMI/SDO data are presented, complemented with observations of AIA/SDO.

Context. Active regions in close proximity to coronal holes, also known as anemone regions, are the best candidates for studying the interaction between closed and open magnetic field topologies at the Sun. Statistical investigation of their source-region characteristics can provide vital clues regarding their possible association with energetic events, relevant from space weather perspectives. Aims. The main goal of our study is to understand the distinct properties of flaring and non-flaring anemone active regions and their host coronal holes, by examining spatial and magnetic field distributions during the rise phase of the solar cycle, in the years 2011–2014. Methods. Anemone regions were identified from the minimum-distance threshold, estimated using the data available in the online catalogs for on-disk active regions and coronal holes. Along with the source-region area and magnetic field characteristics, associated filament and flare cases were also located. Regions with and without flare events were further selected for a detailed statistical examination to understand the major properties of the energetic events, both eruptive and confined, at the anemone-type active regions. Results. Identified anemone regions showed weak asymmetry in their spatial distribution over the solar disk, with yearly average independent from mean sunspot number trend, during the rise phase of solar cycle 24. With the progression in solar cycle, the area and minimum-distance parameters indicated a decreasing trend in their magnitudes, while the magnetic field characteristics indicated an increase in their estimated magnitudes. More than half of the regions in our database had an association with a filament structure, and nearly a third were linked with a magnetic reconnection (flare) event. Anemone regions with and without flares had clear distinctions in their source-region characteristics evident from the distribution of their properties and density analysis. The key differences included larger area and magnetic field magnitudes for flaring anemone regions, along with smaller distances between the centers of the active region and its host coronal hole.

The space physics community continues to grow and become both more interdisciplinary and more intertwined with commercial and government operations. This has created a need for a framework to easily identify what projects can be used for specific applications and how close the tool is to routine autonomous or on-demand implementation and operation. We propose the Application Usability Level (AUL) framework and publicizing AULs to help the community quantify the progress of successful applications, metrics, and validation efforts. This framework will also aid the scientific community by supplying the type of information needed to build off of previously published work and publicizing the applications and requirements needed by the user communities. In this paper, we define the AUL framework, outline the milestones required for progression to higher AULs, and provide example projects utilizing the AUL framework. This work has been completed as part of the activities of the Assessment of Understanding and Quantifying Progress working group which is part of the International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment.

Changes in the Dst index, or the similarly constructed high-resolution SYM-H index, are thought to indicate changes in the total energy content of the ring current. However, this is not always the case. In this paper we examine an intense (SYM-H ∼ −435 nT) magnetic storm that occurred on March 31, 2001. The arrival at Earth of strongly southward IMF produced an immediate negative response in the SYM-H index. While energetic particle and magnetometer data from geosynchronous orbit and inner magnetosphere energetic neutral atom imaging indicate that two substorm injections took place during the main phase, there was about one hour when the SYM-H decreased more than 200 nT with no evidence in the data for ring current enhancement. Instead the near-Earth magnetotail exhibited a growth phase indicative of a strong, growing cross-tail current, with the large substorm expansion phase and the associated injection of energetic particles coming significantly later. Data from the DMSP spacecraft demonstrate that the polar cap flux grew rapidly in response to the strongly southward IMF. We present observations showing that the decrease in SYM-H occurred when polar cap flux was increasing and there was no evidence of injection into the ring current. Our findings strongly support the relationship between Dst and the polar cap flux proposed by theoretical studies that determined that the tail current system could be a significant contributor to Dst.

Geomagnetic storms, as part of the Sun-Earth relations, are continuously monitored with different indices and scales. These indices usually have some associated scale thresholds to quantify the severity or risk of geomagnetic disturbances. However, the most usual scale thresholds are arbitrarily chosen. In this work we aim to quantify the range of the thresholds through a new method. These new thresholds are based on statistical distribution fitting. We used different geomagnetic indices, as Dst, SYM-H, and Kp, since they are relevant for space weather purposes. The first two indices have been discriminated between their negative values and the whole dataset. We considered two periods: a short-term one, comprising data from 1997 to 2012; and long-term ones, which are from 1957–2012 for Dst and 1932–2012 for Kp. We look for the best fit for different statistical continuous distributions applied to these indices. The best fits and the data distribution functions yield to intersects that can be used to define thresholds. The best fit distribution functions are more coincidental between them when considering determined similar datasets, as non-central f-distribution for negative values, meaningful for geomagnetic disturbances; or non-central Student's-t, when the whole dataset is taken. The method yields different values for thresholds depending on the index. Thresholds for geomagnetic storms can be chosen by common values of SYM-H and Dst, as −75 nT for moderate storms; −150 nT for intense storms, and −330 nT for extreme storms. For the case of Kp, the value equal to 5 may mark the departure from quiet time to stormy time. The obtained values are close to those usually considered as thresholds for, typically, Dst and Kp; therefore the thresholds defined here may provide criteria to assess the vulnerability to geomagnetic activity on design or mitigation purposes.

Two GEO satellite anomalies have been related to electrostatic discharge during 1997 - 2010: Telstar 401 and Galaxy 15. This paper compares space weather conditions at the time of the anomaly for both events to check if there were similar conditions at the geospace that might increase risk of electrical discharge for surface and internal charging

[1] The recovery phase of the largest storms ever recorded has been studied. These events provide an extraordinary opportunity for two goals: (1) to validate the hyperbolic model by Aguado et al. (2010) for the recovery phase after disturbances as severe as the Carrington event or that related to the Hydro-Quebec blackout in March 1989, and (2) to check whether the linear relationship between the recovery time and the intensity of the storm still complies. Our results reveal the high accuracy of the hyperbolic decay function to reproduce the recovery phase of the magnetosphere after an extreme storm. Moreover, the characteristic time that takes the magnetosphere to recover depends in an exponential way on the intensity of the storm, as indicated by the relationship between the two parameters involved in the hyperbolic decay. This exponential function can be approached by a linear function when the severity of the storm diminishes.

Midlatitude locations are unique regions exposed to both geomagnetic storm and substorm effects, which may be superposed on specific events imposing an extra handicap for the analysis and identification of the sources and triggers. We study space weather effects at the midlatitude location of the Iberian Peninsula for the St. Patrick's day events in 2013 and 2015. We have been able to identify and separate storm and substorm effects on ground magnetometer data from San Pablo‐Toledo observatory during storm time revealing important contributions of the Substorm Current Wedge on both events. The analysis of these substorm local signatures have shown to be related to the production of effective geomagnetically induced currents and ionospheric disturbances as measured from Global Navigation Satellite Systems data at MAD2 IGS permanent station and not directly related to the storm main phase. The whole Sun‐to‐Earth chain has been analyzed in order to identify the solar and interplanetary triggers. In both events a high‐speed stream (HSS) and a coronal mass ejections (CME) are involved, though for 2015 event, the HSS has merged with the CME, increasing the storm geoeffectiveness. The enhancement of substorm geoeffectiveness is justified by the effects of the inclined magnetic axes of the Sun and of the Earth during equinox period., This work has been supported bythe Spanish Ministerio de Economíay Competitividad (MINECO) underprojects AYA2013-47735-P andAYA2016-80881-P. The work at theUniversitat de Barcelona has beensupported by MINECO under theproject AYA2013-42614-P. The workby Antonio Guerrero has beensupported by University of Alcala under the program “Ayuda Posdoctoraldel Programa Propio de Vicerrectoradode Investigación y Transferencia.”Marta Rodriguez Bouza thanks MINECO for her contract in theproject GCL2014-62113-EXP.

Filaments may be mistaken for coronal holes when observed in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images; however, a closer and more careful look reveals that their photometric properties are different. The combination of EUV images with photospheric magnetograms shows some characteristic differences between filaments and coronal holes. We have performed analyses with 7 different SDO/AIA wavelengths (94, 131, 171, 211, 193, 304, 335~\AA) and SDO/HMI magnetograms obtained in September 2011 and March 2012 to study coronal holes and filaments from the photometric, magnetic, and also geometric point of view, since projection effects play an important role on the aforementioned traits., Comment: 2 pages, 1 figure

We present the results of an investigation from the Sun to the Earth of the sequence of events that caused major Dst decreases (Δ Dst ≤ – 100 nT during 1 h) that occurred during 1996–2005. These events are expected to be better related to geomagnetic induced current (GIC) events than those events where any geomagnetic index is far from its quiet time value. At least one full halo CME with a speed on the plane of sky above 900 km/s participates in every studied event. The seven events were triggered by interplanetary signatures, which arise as a consequence of interaction among different solar ejections. The interaction arises at different stages from the solar surface, between segments of a filament, to the interplanetary medium, appearing as ejecta or multiple-magnetic clouds (MultiMCs). In other cases, shock waves overtake or compress previous ICMEs and at other times the interaction also appears between magnetic clouds (MCs) and streams.

We analyze two magnetic clouds (MCs) observed in different points of the heliosphere. The main aim of the present study is to provide a link between the different aspects of this phenomenon, starting with information on the origins of the MCs at the Sun and following by the analysis of in-situ observations at 1AU and at Ulysses. The candidate source regions were identified in SOHO/EIT and SOHO/MDI observations. They were correlated with H-alfa images that were obtained from ground-based observatories. Hints on the internal magnetic field configuration of the associated coronal mass ejections are obtained from LASCO C2 images. In interplanetary space, magnetic and plasma moments of the distribution function of plasma species (ACE/Ulysses) were analyzed together with information on the plasma composition, and the results were compared between both spacecraft in order to understand how these structures interact and evolve in their cruise from the Sun to 5 AU. Additionally, estimates of global magnitudes of magnetic fluxes and helicity were obtained from magnetic field models applied to the data in interplanetary space. We have found that these magnetic characteristics were well kept from their solar source, up to 5 AU where Ulysses provided valuable information which, together with that obtained from ACE, can help to reinforce the correct matching of solar events and their interplanetary counterparts., Ministerio de Educación y Cultura

On 2015 January 6-7, an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) was observed at L1. This event, which can be associated with a weak and slow coronal mass ejection, allows us to discuss on the differences between the boundaries of the magnetic cloud and the compositional boundaries. A fast stream from a solar coronal hole surrounding this ICME offers a unique opportunity to check the boundaries' process definition and to explain differences between them. Using Wind and ACE data, we perform a complementary analysis involving compositional, magnetic, and kinematic observations providing relevant information regarding the evolution of the ICME as travelling away from the Sun. We propose erosion, at least at the front boundary of the ICME, as the main reason for the difference between the boundaries, and compositional signatures as the most precise diagnostic tool for the boundaries of ICMEs., Comment: 9 pages and 7 figures in the original format

This report assesses the current status of research relating the origin at the Sun, the evolution through the inner heliosphere and the effects on the inner heliosphere of the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The signatures of ICMEs measured by in-situ spacecraft are determined both by the physical processes associated with their origin in the low corona, as observed by space-borne coronagraphs, and by the physical processes occurring as the ICMEs propagate out through the inner heliosphere, interacting with the ambient solar wind. The solar and in-situ observations are discussed as are efforts to model the evolution of ICMEs from the Sun out to 1 AU.

This chapter provides an overview of current efforts in the theory and modeling of CMEs. Five key areas are discussed: (1) CME initiation; (2) CME evolution and propagation; (3) the structure of interplanetary CMEs derived from flux rope modeling; (4) CME shock formation in the inner corona; and (5) particle acceleration and transport at CME driven shocks. In the section on CME initiation three contemporary models are highlighted. Two of these focus on how energy stored in the coronal magnetic field can be released violently to drive CMEs. The third model assumes that CMEs can be directly driven by currents from below the photosphere. CMEs evolve considerably as they expand from the magnetically dominated lower corona into the advectively dominated solar wind. The section on evolution and propagation presents two approaches to the problem. One is primarily analytical and focuses on the key physical processes involved. The other is primarily numerical and illustrates the complexity of possible interactions between the CME and the ambient medium. The section on flux rope fitting reviews the accuracy and reliability of various methods. The section on shock formation considers the effect of the rapid decrease in the magnetic field and plasma density with height. Finally, in the section on particle acceleration and transport, some recent developments in the theory of diffusive particle acceleration at CME shocks are discussed. These include efforts to combine self-consistently the process of particle acceleration in the vicinity of the shock with the subsequent escape and transport of particles to distant regions.

In this work we present a study of the triggers of intense geomagnetic storms since the launch of the WIND spacecraft, November 1995 until December 2001. Reviewing the signatures of solar wind flow, we looked for two different kinds of interplanetary events associated with intense geomagnetic storms: ejecta and corotating solar wind streams. We also looked for the solar origin related to both events. We provide a list of the solar–terrestrial events during the rising phase of this solar cycle. The paper includes statistical conclusions that shed light onto the paradigm of geomagnetic storms.

From all the transient events identified in interplanetary space by in-situ measurements, Magnetic Clouds (MCs) are among the most intriguing ones. They are a special kind of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs), characterized by a well-defined magnetic field configuration. We use a list of 40 MCs detected by Ulysses to study bidirectional flows of protons in the 0.5 MeV energy range. Solar wind ions are also analysed in order to compare cloud to non-cloud ICMEs.The enhancement in freezing-in temperatures inside the clouds, obtained with data from the SWICS instrument, provides insights into processes occurring early during the ejection of the material and represents a complementary tool to differentiate cloud from non-cloud ICMEs. At higher energies, directional information for protons obtained with the EPAC instrument allows a comparison with previous results concerning bidirectional suprathermal electrons. The findings are qualitatively comparable. Apparently, the portion of bidirectional flows inside magnetic clouds is neither heavily dependent on distance from the Sun nor on parameters obtained from a flux rope model.To search for other articles by the author(s) go to: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html

In this work we have performed an analysis of the interplanetary magnetic field and plasma parameters associated with the 12th December 1980 shock–magnetic cloud event. The study was complemented by including a detailed analysis of the energetic particles fluxes, spectral indexes and directional information. Locally, the magnetic cloud had a latitude of 48°, longitude of 220° and a radius of 0.15 AU. The maximum approach of the ISEE-3 spacecraft to the magnetic cloud axis was 0.047 AU. Moreover, our results suggest that, when encountered by the spacecraft, the magnetic cloud was expanding at a rate of roughly r 1/r 0=1.5 (r 1 is the final radius and r 0 the initial one) and that it had been expanding during 59 hr. We have also found evidence which indicates that the particle injection inside the cloud depended on the particle energy and pitch angle. These features also suggest that the energetic particle bi-directional fluxes could not be produced by mirroring in the magnetic cloud feet. Instead we think that these fluxes could be generated by the intrinsic properties of the injection mechanism.

In September 1859 the Colaba observatory measured the most extreme geomagnetic disturbance ever recorded at low latitudes related to solar activity: the Carrington storm. This paper describes a geomagnetic disturbance case with a profile extraordinarily similar to the disturbance of the Carrington event at Colaba: the event on 29 October 2003 at Tihany magnetic observatory in Hungary. The analysis of the H-field at different locations during the ''Carrington-like'' event leads to a re-interpretation of the 1859 event. The major conclusions of the paper are the following: (a) the global Dst or SYM-H, as indices based on averaging, missed the largest geomagnetic disturbance in the 29 October 2003 event and might have missed the 1859 disturbance, since the large spike in the horizontal component (H) of terrestrial magnetic field depends strongly on magnetic local time (MLT); (b) the main cause of the large drop in H recorded at Colaba during the Carrington storm was not the ring current but field-aligned currents (FACs); and (c) the very local signatures of the H-spike imply that a Carrington-like event can occur more often than expected., Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad, Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha

Data observed during spacecraft encounters with magnetic clouds have been extensively analyzed in the literature. Moreover, several models have been proposed for the magnetic topology of these events, and fitted to the observations. Although these interplanetary events present well-defined plasma features, none of those models have included a simultaneous analysis of magnetic field and plasma data. Using as a starting point a non-force-free model that we have developed previously, we present a global study of MCs that include both the magnetic field topology and the plasma pressure. In this paper we obtain the governing equations for both magnitudes inside a MC. The expressions deduced are fitted simultaneously to the measurements of plasma pressure and magnetic field vector. We perform an analysis of magnetic field and plasma WIND observations within several MCs from 1995 to 1998. The analysis is confined to four of these events that have high-quality data. Only in one fitting procedure we obtain the orientation of the magnetic cloud relative to the ecliptic plane and the current density of the plasma inside the cloud. We find that the equations proposed reproduce the experimental data quite well.

We have examined WIND magnetic field and plasma data during the first half of 1998 in order to find encounters of this spacecraft with magnetic clouds. From the events obtained through this search, we have selected four of them taking into account their solar origin. The four magnetic clouds are related to halo or partial halo CMEs, but the morphology of the active region before the eruption is sigmoidal for three of them and non-sigmoidal for the other one. We have analyzed these events in the solar wind by fitting the experimental data to a non-force-free flux-rope model. We conclude that both kinds of active regions develop in the solar wind an ejection with a flux-rope topology.

We present a model that describes the topology of a magnetic cloud. The model relates the magnetic field vector and current density of the cloud without assuming the force-free condition. Fitting the model to the experimental data we obtain the current density, the attitude of the axis and the relative closest-approach distance between the spacecraft and the cloud axis. In this paper, several magnetic clouds of 1997 are analyzed. The results indicate that the topology presented in this paper explains the magnetic field inside a MC better than force-free models. A current density of the order of 10−12 C m−2 s−1 is obtained in the fitting of all the events.

The most intense energetic particle (mainly proton) events in the energy range 36–1600 keV, during the years of maximum activity of solar cycle 21 (1978 to 1982), have been studied with regard to their spectra, temporal profiles, source location at the Sun, interplanetary plasma parameters and interplanetary magnetic field topology. In all the events, the particles were accelerated by the 'Diffusive Shock' acceleration mechanism, because all the events were 'long-duration events', shock-associated, and their spectra fitted to a power-law energetic particle spectrum dJ/dE ∼ E-\gamma with the exponent values ranging from 1.25 up to 1.94, with a mean value of 1.60 ± 0.06. We also show that the spectral indexes γ are related to the shock properties by a linear expression. The solar sources were located on a wide longitudinal belt extending from 50^ W up to 73^ E. Neither the spectral indexes nor the shock parameters present any dependence on the source location at the Sun. Finally, only one event showed the complete set of properties that characterize the presence of a magnetic cloud associated with the event.

Extreme geomagnetic storms are considered as one of the major natural hazards for technology-dependent society. Geomagnetic field disturbances can disrupt the operation of critical infrastructures relying on space-based assets, and can also result in terrestrial effects, such as the Quebec electrical disruption in 1989. Forecasting potential hazards is a matter of high priority, but considering large flares as the only criterion for early-warning systems has demonstrated to release a large amount of false alarms and misses. Moreover, the quantification of the severity of the geomagnetic disturbance at the terrestrial surface using indices as Dst cannot be considered as the best approach to give account of the damage in utilities. High temporal resolution local indices come out as a possible solution to this issue, as disturbances recorded at the terrestrial surface differ largely both in latitude and longitude. The recovery phase of extreme storms presents also some peculiar features which make it different from other less intense storms. This paper goes through all these issues related to extreme storms by analysing a few events, highlighting the March 1989 storm, related to the Quebec blackout, and the October 2003 event, when several transformers burnt out in South Africa., Solar and Stellar Astrophysics, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad

Starting with our elliptical cross-section model for the study of the magnetic topology of magnetic clouds (MCs) in the interplanetary medium, we develop an analytical approach to the behavior of the Dst index at the recovery phase of a geomagnetic storm. Assuming an axially symmetric ring current, we estimate its physical parameters during that recovery phase of the storm-time. We compare the theoretical and measured Dst indexes in two intense geomagnetic storms (Dst

A recent study by Cid et al. (2012) showed that full halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) coming from the limb can disturb the terrestrial environment. Although this result seems to rise some controversies with the well established theories, the fact is that the study encourages the scientific community to perform careful multidisciplinary analysis along the Sunto- Earth chain to fully understand which are the solar triggers of terrestrial disturbances. This paper aims to clarify some of the polemical issues arisen by that paper. © 2013 International Astronomical Union. Fil:Mandrini, C. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Dasso, S. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina.

This paper aims at providing an overview of latest advances in space weather modeling in an operational environment in Europe, including both the introduction of new models and improvements to existing codes and algorithms that address the broad range of space weather’s prediction requirements from the Sun to the Earth. For each case, we consider the model’s input data, the output parameters, products or services, its operational status, and whether it is supported by validation results, in order to build a solid basis for future developments. This work is the output of the Sub Group 1.3 ‘‘Improvement of operational models’’ of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES0803 ‘‘Developing Space Weather Products and services in Europe’’ and therefore this review focuses on the progress achieved by European research teams involved in the action.

[1] The probability for a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) to be geoeffective is assumed to be higher the closer the CME launch site is located to the solar central meridian. However, events far from the central meridian may produce severe geomagnetic storms, like the case in April 2000. In this work, we study the possible geoeffectiveness of full halo CMEs with the source region situated at solar limb. For this task, we select all limb full halo (LFH) CMEs that occurred during solar cycle 23, and we search for signatures of geoeffectiveness between 1 and 5 days after the first appearance of each CME in the LASCO C2 field of view. When signatures of geomagnetic activity are observed in the selected time window, interplanetary data are carefully analyzed in order to look for the cause of the geomagnetic disturbance. Finally, a possible association between geoeffective interplanetary signatures and every LFH CME in solar cycle 23 is checked in order to decide on the CME's geoeffectiveness. After a detailed analysis of solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic data, we conclude that of the 25 investigated events, there are only four geoeffective LFH CMEs, all coming from the west limb. The geoeffectiveness of these events seems to be moderate, turning to intense in two of them as a result of cumulative effects from previous mass ejections. We conclude that ejections from solar locations close to the west limb should be considered in space weather, at least as sources of moderate disturbances.

[1] What one commonly considers for reproducing the recovery phase of magnetosphere, as seen by the Dst index, is exponential function. However, the magnetosphere recovers faster in the first hours than in the late recovery phase. The early steepness followed by the late smoothness in the magnetospheric response is a feature that leads to the proposal of a hyperbolic decay function to reproduce the recovery phase instead of the exponential function. A superposed epoch analysis of recovery phases of intense storms from 1963 to 2003 was performed, categorizing the storms by their intensity into five subsets. The hyperbolic decay function reproduces experimental data better than what the exponential function does for any subset of storms, which indicates a nonlinear coupling between dDst/dt and Dst. Moreover, this kind of mathematical function, where the degree of reduction of the Dst index depends on time, allows for explaining different lifetimes of the physical mechanisms involved in the recovery phase and provides new insights for the modeling of the Dst index.