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In particle systems, flocking refers to the phenomenon where particles' individual velocities eventually align. The Cucker-Smale model is a well-known mathematical framework that describes this behavior. Many continuous descriptions of the Cucker-Smale model use PDEs with both particle position and velocity as independent variables, thus providing a full description of the particles mean-field limit (MFL) dynamics. In this paper, we introduce a novel reduced inertial PDE model consisting of two equations that depend solely on particle position. In contrast to other reduced models, ours is not derived from the MFL, but directly includes the model reduction at the level of the empirical densities, thus allowing for a straightforward connection to the underlying particle dynamics. We present a thorough analytical investigation of our reduced model, showing that: firstly, our reduced PDE satisfies a natural and interpretable continuous definition of flocking; secondly, in specific cases, we can fully quantify the discrepancy between PDE solution and particle system. Our theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations., Comment: 28 pages, 8 figures

Time-evolving graphs arise frequently when modeling complex dynamical systems such as social networks, traffic flow, and biological processes. Developing techniques to identify and analyze communities in these time-varying graph structures is an important challenge. In this work, we generalize existing spectral clustering algorithms from static to dynamic graphs using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to capture the temporal evolution of clusters. Based on this extended canonical correlation framework, we define the spatio-temporal graph Laplacian and investigate its spectral properties. We connect these concepts to dynamical systems theory via transfer operators, and illustrate the advantages of our method on benchmark graphs by comparison with existing methods. We show that the spatio-temporal graph Laplacian allows for a clear interpretation of cluster structure evolution over time for directed and undirected graphs.

The rise of digital social media has strengthened the coevolution of public opinions and social interactions, that shape social structures and collective outcomes in increasingly complex ways. Existing literature often explores this interplay as a one-directional influence, focusing on how opinions determine social ties within adaptive networks. However, this perspective overlooks the intrinsic dynamics driving social interactions, which can significantly influence how opinions form and evolve. In this work, we address this gap, by introducing the co-evolving opinion and social dynamics using stochastic agent-based models. Agents' mobility in a social space is governed by both their social and opinion similarity with others. Similarly, the dynamics of opinion formation is driven by the opinions of agents in their social vicinity. We analyze the underlying social and opinion interaction networks and explore the mechanisms influencing the appearance of emerging phenomena, like echo chambers and opinion consensus. To illustrate the model's potential for real-world analysis, we apply it to General Social Survey data on political identity and public opinion regarding governmental issues. Our findings highlight the model's strength in capturing the coevolution of social connections and individual opinions over time.

The Koopman operator has entered and transformed many research areas over the last years. Although the underlying concept$\unicode{x2013}$representing highly nonlinear dynamical systems by infinite-dimensional linear operators$\unicode{x2013}$has been known for a long time, the availability of large data sets and efficient machine learning algorithms for estimating the Koopman operator from data make this framework extremely powerful and popular. Koopman operator theory allows us to gain insights into the characteristic global properties of a system without requiring detailed mathematical models. We will show how these methods can also be used to analyze complex networks and highlight relationships between Koopman operators and graph Laplacians.

Agent-based models (ABMs) provide an intuitive and powerful framework for studying social dynamics by modeling the interactions of individuals from the perspective of each individual. In addition to simulating and forecasting the dynamics of ABMs, the demand to solve optimization problems to support, for example, decision-making processes naturally arises. Most ABMs, however, are non-deterministic, high-dimensional dynamical systems, so objectives defined in terms of their behavior are computationally expensive. In particular, if the number of agents is large, evaluating the objective functions often becomes prohibitively time-consuming. We consider data-driven reduced models based on the Koopman generator to enable the efficient solution of multi-objective optimization problems involving ABMs. In a first step, we show how to obtain data-driven reduced models of non-deterministic dynamical systems (such as ABMs) that depend potentially nonlinearly on control inputs. We then use them in the second step as surrogate models to solve multi-objective optimal control problems. We first illustrate our approach using the example of a voter model, where we compute optimal controls to steer the agents to a predetermined majority, and then using the example of an epidemic ABM, where we compute optimal containment strategies in a prototypical situation. We demonstrate that the surrogate models effectively approximate the Pareto-optimal points of the ABM dynamics by comparing the surrogate-based results with test points, where the objectives are evaluated using the ABM. Our results show that when objectives are defined by the dynamic behavior of ABMs, data-driven surrogate models support or even enable the solution of multi-objective optimization problems.

Epidemiological models can not only be used to forecast the course of a pandemic like COVID-19, but also to propose and design non-pharmaceutical interventions such as school and work closing. In general, the design of optimal policies leads to nonlinear optimization problems that can be solved by numerical algorithms. Epidemiological models come in different complexities, ranging from systems of simple ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to complex agent-based models (ABMs). The former allow a fast and straightforward optimization, but are limited in accuracy, detail, and parameterization, while the latter can resolve spreading processes in detail, but are extremely expensive to optimize. We consider policy optimization in a prototypical situation modeled as both ODE and ABM, review numerical optimization approaches, and propose a heterogeneous multilevel approach based on combining a fine-resolution ABM and a coarse ODE model. Numerical experiments, in particular with respect to convergence speed, are given for illustrative examples.

Digital communication has made the public discourse considerably more complex, and new actors and strategies have emerged as a result of this seismic shift. Aside from the often-studied interactions among individuals during opinion formation, which have been facilitated on a large scale by social media platforms, the changing role of traditional media and the emerging role of "influencers" are not well understood, and the implications of their engagement strategies arising from the incentive structure of the attention economy even less so. Here we propose a novel opinion dynamics model that accounts for these different roles, namely that media and influencers change their own positions on slower time scales than individuals, while influencers dynamically gain and lose followers. Numerical simulations show the importance of their relative influence in creating qualitatively different opinion formation dynamics: with influencers, fragmented but short-lived clusters emerge, which are then counteracted by more stable media positions. Mean-field approximations by partial differential equations reproduce this dynamic. Based on the mean-field model, we study how strategies of influencers to gain more followers can influence the overall opinion distribution. We show that moving towards extreme positions can be a beneficial strategy for influencers to gain followers. Finally, we demonstrate that optimal control strategies allow other influencers or media to counteract such attempts and prevent further fragmentation of the opinion landscape. Our modelling framework contributes to better understanding the different roles and strategies in the increasingly complex information ecosystem and their impact on public opinion formation.

We introduce an agent-based model for co-evolving opinion and social dynamics, under the influence of multiplicative noise. In this model, every agent is characterized by a position in a social space and a continuous opinion state variable. Agents' movements are governed by positions and opinions of other agents and similarly, the opinion dynamics is influenced by agents' spatial proximity and their opinion similarity. Using numerical simulations and formal analysis, we study this feedback loop between opinion dynamics and mobility of agents in a social space. We investigate the behavior of this ABM in different regimes and explore the influence of various factors on appearance of emerging phenomena such as group formation and opinion consensus. We study the empirical distribution and in the limit of infinite number of agents we derive a corresponding reduced model given by a partial differential equation (PDE). Finally, using numerical examples we show that a resulting PDE model is a good approximation of the original ABM.

Agent based models (ABMs) are a useful tool for modeling spatio-temporal population dynamics, where many details can be included in the model description. Their computational cost though is very high and for stochastic ABMs a lot of individual simulations are required to sample quantities of interest. Especially, large numbers of agents render the sampling infeasible. Model reduction to a metapopulation model leads to a significant gain in computational efficiency, while preserving important dynamical properties. Based on a precise mathematical description of spatio-temporal ABMs, we present two different metapopulation approaches (stochastic and piecewise deterministic) and discuss the approximation steps between the different models within this framework. Especially, we show how the stochastic metapopulation model results from a Galerkin projection of the underlying ABM onto a finite-dimensional ansatz space. Finally, we utilize our modeling framework to provide a conceptual model for the spreading of COVID-19 that can be scaled to real-world scenarios.

While spectral clustering algorithms for undirected graphs are well established and have been successfully applied to unsupervised machine learning problems ranging from image segmentation and genome sequencing to signal processing and social network analysis, clustering directed graphs remains notoriously difficult. Two of the main challenges are that the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of graph Laplacians associated with directed graphs are in general complex-valued and that there is no universally accepted definition of clusters in directed graphs. We first exploit relationships between the graph Laplacian and transfer operators and in particular between clusters in undirected graphs and metastable sets in stochastic dynamical systems and then use a generalization of the notion of metastability to derive clustering algorithms for directed and time-evolving graphs. The resulting clusters can be interpreted as coherent sets, which play an important role in the analysis of transport and mixing processes in fluid flows.

Many real-world processes can naturally be modeled as systems of interacting agents. However, the long-term simulation of such agent-based models is often intractable when the system becomes too large. In this paper, starting from a stochastic spatio-temporal agent-based model (ABM), we present a reduced model in terms of stochastic PDEs that describes the evolution of agent number densities for large populations. We discuss the algorithmic details of both approaches; regarding the SPDE model, we apply Finite Element discretization in space which not only ensures efficient simulation but also serves as a regularization of the SPDE. Illustrative examples for the spreading of an innovation among agents are given and used for comparing ABM and SPDE models.

The problem of decomposing networks into modules (or clusters) has gained much attention in recent years, as it can account for a coarse-grained description of complex systems, often revealing functional subunits of these systems. A variety of module detection algorithms have been proposed, mostly oriented towards finding hard partitionings of undirected networks. Despite the increasing number of fuzzy clustering methods for directed networks, many of these approaches tend to neglect important directional information. In this paper, we present a novel random walk based approach for finding fuzzy partitions of directed, weighted networks, where edge directions play a crucial role in defining how well nodes in a module are interconnected. We will show that cycle decomposition of a random walk process connects the notion of network modules and information transport in a network, leading to a new, symmetric measure of node communication. walk process, for which we will prove that although being time-reversible it inherits all necessary information about directions and modular structure of the original network. Finally, we will use this measure to introduce a communication graph, for which we will show that although being undirected it inherits all necessary information about modular structures from the original network.

We present a new cycle flow based method for finding fuzzy partitions of weighted directed networks coming from time series data. We show that this method overcomes essential problems of most existing clustering approaches, which tend to ignore important directional information by considering only one-step, one-directional node connections. Our method introduces a novel measure of communication between nodes using multi-step, bidirectional transitions encoded by a cycle decomposition of the probability flow. Symmetric properties of this measure enable us to construct an undirected graph that captures information flow of the original graph seen by the data and apply clustering methods designed for undirected graphs. Finally, we demonstrate our algorithm by analyzing earthquake time series data, which naturally induce (time-)directed networks. This article has been published originally in EPL, DOI: 10.1209/0295-5075/108/68008. This version differs from the published version by minor formatting details.