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When designing a clinical trial, one key aspect of the design is the sample size calculation. The sample size calculation tends to rely on a target or expected difference. The expected difference can be based on the observed data from previous studies, which results in bias. It has been reported that large treatment effects observed in trials are often not replicated in subsequent trials. If these values are used to design subsequent studies, the sample sizes may be biased which results in an unethical study. Regression to the mean (RTM) is one explanation for this. If only health technologies which meet a particular continuation criterion (such as p

Background Oncology drugs are frequently approved on the basis of surrogate outcomes that require further trials to confirm the benefits, but at times these trials fail and regulators need to decide whether to withdraw approval for the indication and/or to remove the drug from the market. This study compares decisions by the Food and Drug Administration and Health Canada about oncology drugs that were approved using either Accelerated Approval (FDA) or Notice of Compliance with conditions (NOC/c, Health Canada) and that failed confirmatory trials. Methods Drug/indications approved by the FDA through its Accelerated Approval Pathway and that later failed confirmatory studies were identified from a published study and additional information on these drugs was collected from Drugs@FDA. Health Canada websites were searched on September 11, 2021 for the same group of drugs to determine if they were approved in Canada under the NOC/c pathway for the same indication as in the US. Information from both the FDA and Health Canada about these products was entered into an Excel spreadsheet. Decisions about whether to withdraw the drugs or remove the failed indication for the drug and requirements for confirmatory studies were compared. In addition, the dates of decisions by the two agencies were compared. Results Ten drug/indications were available for comparison. Regulatory decisions were similar in 4 cases, different in 1 case and could not be determined in the remaining 5, in 1 case because decisions were pending in both countries and in the other 4, because the NOC/c had not been fulfilled in Canada. The requirements for the confirmatory studies were similar in both countries. Decisions were made earlier in the United States. Conclusions This study shows that decisions made by Health Canada and the FDA about whether to withdraw a drug or remove a failed indication when drug/indications fail a confirmatory trial are usually similar, although the sample size on which this conclusion is made is small. The clinical implications of these similarities and differences should be explored.

The assurance of a future clinical trial is a key quantitative tool for decision-making in drug development. It is derived from prior knowledge (Bayesian approach) about the clinical endpoint of interest, typically from previous clinical trials. In this paper, we examine assurance in the specific context of vaccine development, where early development (Phase 2) is often based on immunological endpoints (e.g., antibody levels), while the confirmatory trial (Phase 3) is based on the clinical endpoint (very large sample sizes and long follow-up). Our proposal is to use the Phase 2 vaccine efficacy predicted by the immunological endpoint (using a model estimated from epidemiological studies) as prior information for the calculation of the assurance.

Objective To evaluate the efficacy and safety of ulipristal acetate (UPA) for uterine fibroids (UFs), a phase III study was conducted with leuprorelin (LEU) as a comparator. This is the first confirmatory trial of UPA for UFs among Asians. Design Multicenter, randomized, double-blind, double-dummy, parallel-group study. Setting Thirty-two sites in Japan. Patient(s) Patients were assigned to 2 arms, with 82 patients in the UPA group and 79 patients in the LEU group. Intervention(s) In the UPA group, 10 mg of UPA was orally administered once a day for 12 weeks. In the LEU group, 1.88 mg or 3.75 mg of LEU was subcutaneously administered at weeks 0, 4, and 8. Main Outcome Measure(s) The primary endpoint was the percentage of patients with amenorrhea for 35 days. For safety evaluation, adverse events (AEs) were recorded. Result(s) The percentage of patients with amenorrhea for 35 days was 87.0% in the UPA group and 81.8% in the LEU group, and the efficacy of UPA for causing amenorrhea for 35 days was confirmed to be noninferior to that of LEU. AEs occurred in 78.0% of the patients in the UPA group and 88.8% of the patients in the LEU group. Conclusion(s) The effect of UPA on heavy menstrual bleeding was shown to be comparable with that of LEU in Japanese patients with symptomatic UFs. No notable AEs occurred because of the UPA treatment, and the incidence of AEs in the UPA group was comparable with that of AEs in the LEU group. This result demonstrates the clinical utility of UPA for Asians.

Preterm birth (PTB) is defined as delivery before 37 weeks of gestation. Globally, 15 million infants are born prematurely, putting these children at an increased risk of mortality and lifelong health challenges. Currently in the U.S., there is only one FDA approved therapy for the prevention of preterm birth. Makena is an intramuscular progestin injection given to women who have experienced a premature delivery in the past. Recently, however, Makena failed a confirmatory trial, resulting the Center for Drug Evaluation and Research’s (CDER) recommendation for the FDA to withdrawal Makena’s approval. This recommendation would leave clinicians with no therapeutic options for preventing PTB. Here, we outline recent interdisciplinary efforts involving physicians, pharmacologists, biologists, chemists, and engineers to understand risk factors associated with PTB, to define mechanisms that contribute to PTB, and to develop next generation therapies for preventing PTB. These advances have the potential to better identify women at risk for PTB, prevent the onset of premature labor, and, ultimately, save infant lives.

A risk management plan (RMP) has an important role in assuring the optimal benefit-risk balance of a drug throughout its life cycle. However, no clear standards have been established for differentiating risk classification between "important identified risks" and "important potential risks". This study was a review and descriptive analysis for Japanese RMPs with a focus on antineoplastic agents to identify effective factors to discriminate an important identified risk from an important potential risk. Analysis based on 51 RMPs, reporting 310 important identified risks and 72 important potential risks, revealed significant associations between selection of the risk classification and several factors, including severe cases, actual cases in the Japanese population, availability of confirmatory trial data, and incidence of adverse events. Trend of the association was also found for discontinuation cases and immune-oncology agents [IO (drug type)]. These results suggest that consideration of these factors may be useful for coherent risk classification in creating a RMP.

Highlights • Local ablative radiotherapy is associated with high rates of local control. • Prognosis in oligometastatic disease may be improved by metastases-directed therapy. • OLIGOMA assesses the role of radiotherapy in oligometastatic breast cancer patients., Background Several recent randomized therapeutic exploratory trials demonstrated improvement of progression-free survival and in some even overall survival using stereotactic body radiotherapy in patients with oligometastatic disease. However, only very few patients enrolled in these trials had breast cancer, and results from confirmatory trials are lacking. Methods/design The OLIGOMA-trial is a randomized controlled multi-national multi-center therapeutic confirmatory trial studying the role of local ablative radiotherapy as an additive treatment in patients with oligometastatic breast cancer receiving standard systemic therapy. Patients will be randomized 1:1 to standard systemic therapy according to national guidelines with or without radiotherapy to all metastatic sites. Randomization will be stratified according to type and line of systemic therapy, which has to be determined by a multidisciplinary tumor board before enrollment. Patients with up to five metastatic lesions are eligible, including patients with up to three brain metastases (only in case of extracranial disease) and with locoregional recurrence (only in case of additional metastatic lesions). In the standard arm, palliative radiotherapy to symptomatic metastases is permitted if at least one lesion remains untreated. The co-primary endpoints are progression-free survival and quality of life. The primary hypothesis is that progression-free survival in the experimental arm will be superior to the standard arm while simultaneously demonstrating non-inferiority of quality of life at 12 weeks after randomization. Secondary endpoints are feasibility, overall survival, toxicity, quality of life and patient satisfaction. A translational sub-study with collection of ctDNA will be conducted. Discussion The OLIGOMA-trial will provide high level evidence on the use of and benefit from local ablative radiotherapy for patients with oligometastatic breast cancer. Trial registration The OLIGOMA-trial is registered at clinicialtrials.gov under the identification NCT04495309. The related information was first posted on July 31st 2020.

The test treatment in confirmatory clinical trials is often assessed using multiple primary endpoints. We considered that trial efficacy is confirmed only when there is superiority of at least one ...

EEG studies have shown that adult ADHD patients have less stable brain arousal regulation than age and gender matched controls. Psychostimulants have brain arousal stabilising properties evident in EEG patterns. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the stability of brain arousal regulation has prognostic value in predicting response to methylphenidate therapy in adult ADHD patients. In an open-label, single-arm, multi-centre, confirmatory trial, 121 adult ADHD patients were recruited and 112 qualified for the full analysis set. All participants received an initial dose of 20 mg extended release methylphenidate at baseline. After a titration phase of up to 4 weeks, patients remained on a weight-based target dose of extended release methylphenidate for 4 weeks. Using the Vigilance Algorithm Leipzig (VIGALL 2.1), we assessed brain arousal regulation before the treatment with methylphenidate, based on a 15-min EEG at quiet rest recorded at baseline. Using automatic stage-classification of 1 s segments, we computed the mean EEG-vigilance (indexing arousal level) and an arousal stability score (indexing arousal regulation). The primary endpoint was the association between successful therapy, defined by a 30% reduction in CAARS, and stable/unstable brain arousal. 52 patients (46%) showed an unstable brain arousal regulation of which 23% had therapy success. In the stable group, 35% had therapy success, implying an absolute difference of 12 percentage points (95% CI −5 to 29, p = 0.17) in the direction opposite to the hypothesized one. There were no new findings regarding the tolerability and safety of extended release methylphenidate therapy.

BACKGROUND Several feasibility studies and a randomized, controlled, multicenter trial have demonstrated the safety and efficacy of unilateral transcranial magnetic resonance-guided focused ultrasound (FUS) lesioning of the ventral intermediate thalamic nucleus in treating essential tremor. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the safety and efficacy of FUS thalamotomy in a Japanese patient cohort through a prospective, multicenter, single-arm confirmatory trial. METHODS A total of 35 patients with disabling refractory essential tremor underwent unilateral FUS thalamotomy and were followed up for 12 post-treatment months. Safety was measured as the incidence and severity of treatment-related adverse events. Efficacy was measured as the tremor severity and quality of life improvements using the Clinical Rating Scale for Tremor and Questionnaire for Essential Tremor. RESULTS The mean skull density ratio (SDR) was 0.47. There was a significant decrease in the mean postural tremor score of the treated hand from baseline to 12 mo by 56.4% (95% CI: 46.7%-66.1%; P

Background The FLAIR trial in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia has a randomised, controlled, open-label, confirmatory, platform design. FLAIR was successfully amended to include an emerging promising experimental therapy to expedite its assessment, greatly reducing the time to reach the primary outcome compared to running a separate trial and without compromising the validity of the research or the ability to recruit to the trial and report the outcomes. The methodological and practical issues are presented, describing how they were addressed to ensure the amendment was a success. Methods FLAIR was designed as a two-arm trial requiring 754 patients. In stage 2, two new arms were added: a new experimental arm and a second control arm to protect the trial in case of a change in practice. In stage 3, the original experimental arm was closed as its planned recruitment target was reached. In total, 1516 participants will be randomised to the trial. Results The changes to the protocol and randomisation to add and stop arms were made seamlessly without pausing recruitment. The statistical considerations to ensure the results for the original and new hypotheses are unbiased were approved following peer review by oversight committees, Cancer Research UK, ethical and regulatory committees and pharmaceutical partners. These included the use of concurrent comparators in case of any stage effect, appropriate control of the type I error rate and consideration of analysis methods across trial stages. The operational aspects of successfully implementing the amendments are described, including gaining approvals and additional funding, data management requirements and implementation at centres. Conclusions FLAIR is an exemplar of how an emerging experimental therapy can be assessed within an existing trial structure without compromising the conduct, reporting or validity of the trial. This strategy offered considerable resource savings and allowed the new experimental therapy to be assessed within a confirmatory trial in the UK years earlier than would have otherwise been possible. Despite the clear efficiencies, treatment arms are rarely added to ongoing trials in practice. This paper demonstrates how this strategy is acceptable, feasible and beneficial to patients and the wider research community. Trial registration ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN01844152. Registered on August 08, 2014

After an overview of FDA’s draft guidances to industry on adaptive designs and enrichment strategies for clinical trials, we describe recent advances in adaptive confirmatory trial designs and stat...

BACKGROUND: The STREAM study demonstrated that a pharmaco-invasive strategy was at least as effective as primary PCI (pPCI) in patients presenting early with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The current trial is a response to the finding that reduced intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in patients ≥75 years occurred after halving the dose of tenecteplase. Additionally, a subsequent analysis of full dose tenecteplase or alteplase in the Assessment of the Safety and Efficacy of a New Thrombolytic (ASSENT) trials demonstrated a steep increase in bleeding events beginning around the age of 60 years. METHODS: STREAM-2 will compare the efficacy and safety of a novel pharmaco-invasive strategy as compared to routine pPCI in STEMI patients ≥60 years presenting within 3 hours from symptom onset. In the pharmaco-invasive arm patients will receive half-dose tenecteplase, as soon as possible before transport to a PCI center. In the pPCI arm, patients will be treated according to optimal standard of care defined by local practice. The key criteria for efficacy will be the number of patients achieving ≥50% ST-segment resolution before and after PCI in lead with maximal ST elevation at baseline and the clinical endpoints of death, congestive heart failure, shock or re-infarction, rescue PCI and aborted myocardial infarction, both singularly and as a composite at 30 days. Key safety criteria are total stroke, ICH and major non-intracranial bleeds. Approximately 600 patients will be randomized (400 to pharmaco-invasive treatment and 200 to pPCI). An interim analysis is planned after 300 patients are enrolled to consider adapting the trial to include a larger sample size aimed at undertaking a formal confirmatory trial. DISCUSSION: The study will provide new insights aimed at establishing an effective and safer pharmaco-invasive treatment for the growing population of older STEMI patients who cannot undergo timely pPCI. ispartof: AMERICAN HEART JOURNAL vol:226 pages:140-146 ispartof: location:United States status: published

Accelerated approval (AA) is a program that grants approval to drugs based on clinical trial data for a surrogate endpoint or an intermediate clinical endpoint. Pharmaceutical companies are required to conduct a confirmatory trial to demonstrate true clinical benefit of the drug to obtain full approval (FA) for the AA. This study aimed at clarifying the points that should be considered by examining the characteristics of AA indications in all disease areas and the factors related to the status of conversion from AA to FA. AA indications granted from January 1, 2000, to June 30, 2016, were investigated from the aspects of the characteristics of AAs and the status of conversion from AA to FA. Eighty-nine AAs were examined, of which 65 were converted to FA and 24 were not. A significant association was found between the FA status and period in which AA was granted, disease area, availability of IA data of a confirmatory trial for FA at the time of AA, and sales ranking of the company. To successfully convert from AA to FA, a development plan that focuses not only on AA but also on future FA needs to be considered and implemented from the early stage of development in line with the FDA guidance. In particular, for companies with insufficient experience in the development of AA indications and for products/indications without an established endpoint, more active discussion with the regulatory authorities from an early stage of development should be encouraged.

Objective Laparoscopic endoscopic cooperative surgery for duodenal tumors (D-LECS) has been developed to prevent duodenal leakage by reinforcing the endoscopic submucosal dissection site. However, there has been no prospective trial showing the feasibility of D-LECS. Herein, we conducted a single-arm confirmatory trial to evaluate the safety of D-LECS for non-ampullary superficial duodenal neoplasms. Methods This prospective single-center single-arm confirmatory trial analyzed patients with non-ampullary superficial duodenal neoplasms who underwent D-LECS. The primary endpoint was the incidence of any postoperative leakage occurring on the duodenal wall within 1 month postoperatively. The planned sample size was 20 patients, considering a threshold of 28% and one-sided alpha value of 5%. Results Between January 2015 and September 2018, 20 eligible patients were enrolled. Sixteen tumors were located in the second portion, three in the first portion, and one in the third portion of the duodenal region. The median operative time was 225 (134-361) min and the median blood loss was 0 (0-150) mL. Curative resection (R0) with negative margins was achieved in 19 cases. One case of postoperative leakage and one case of bleeding of grade 2 according to the Clavien-Dindo classification were observed in this series. The median duration of postoperative hospital stay was 9 (5-12) days. No local recurrence was observed in any patient during the median follow-up of 15.0 (12.0-38.0) months. Conclusions This trial confirmed the safety and feasibility of D-LECS for non-ampullary superficial duodenal neoplasms with respect to the low incidence of postoperative duodenal leakage.

Before 2011, 17α-hydroxyprogesterone caproate (17P) was used to prevent recurrent preterm birth in women with singleton pregnancies and was compounded at a low cost (∼$15 per injection). In 2011, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved a commercial version of 17P (trade name "Makena") through their Accelerated Approval Program, and the price of 17P subsequently increased by nearly 100-fold. This approval was largely based on a methodologically limited, placebo-controlled trial, which found that although 17P significantly reduced preterm births, the placebo group had significantly more participants with a history of preterm birth, potentially confounding the results. The FDA required a confirmatory trial for continued approval that demonstrated clinical benefit. Eight years after accelerated approval, the confirmatory trial, PROLONG (Progestin's Role in Optimizing Neonatal Gestation), found no evidence of an effect of Makena for reducing recurrent preterm birth or perinatal mortality. Trial completion triggered an automatic review of Makena by an advisory committee, which voted 9-7 to recommend revoking approval of Makena for preterm birth. Although the FDA created the Accelerated Approval Program to introduce therapies for serious conditions that lacked treatment options, Makena is an example of the limitations of this program. We encourage the FDA to re-evaluate their program and consider improvements, such as shorter timeframes to complete confirmatory trials, potentially revoking approval if the studies are not completed within a predefined timeframe, and to hold manufacturers responsible, in part, for the costs of therapy if they cannot prove a clinical benefit.

Background: There is no uniform standard of care for HER2-positive breast cancer (BC) after disease progression on ado-trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1). [Fam-] trastuzumab deruxtecan (T-DXd; formerly DS-8201a) is a novel HER2-targeted antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) with a humanized HER2 antibody attached to a topoisomerase I inhibitor payload by a cleavable tetrapeptide-based linker and a drug-to-antibody ratio of 7 to 8. It was designed with the goal of improving critical attributes of an ADC. In a phase 1 study, T-DXd showed promising antitumor activity in subjects with HER2-positive BC previously treated with T-DM1 with a confirmed objective response rate (ORR) of 59.5% (Tamura et al, Lancet Oncol, 2019). Results from the pivotal, phase 2 study of subjects with HER2-positive BC previously treated with T-DM1 (DESTINY-Breast01) confirmed the activity observed in the phase 1 study and will be presented at the meeting (Krop, et al). Here, we describe the phase 3 confirmatory trial evaluating T-DXd in subjects with HER2-positive, unresectable and/or metastatic breast cancer who previously received T-DM1. Study Description: DESTINY-Breast02 is a multicenter, open-label, phase 3 trial that is comparing the efficacy and safety of T-DXd with those of the investigator’s choice of therapy in subjects with centrally confirmed, HER2-positive (IHC 3+ or ISH+), unresectable and/or metastatic BC that progressed on or after T-DM1. The trial started in August 2018 and is recruiting subjects from ≈ 190 sites in North and South America, Europe, and Asia. Approximately 600 subjects will be randomized (2:1) to T-DXd or the investigator’s choice of treatment (trastuzumab + capecitabine or lapatinib + capecitabine). Randomization is stratified by hormone receptor status, prior pertuzumab treatment, and history of visceral disease. T-DXd (5.4 mg/kg) will be administered intravenously once every 3 weeks. Progression-free survival (PFS) based on blinded, independent central review using RECIST v1.1 criteria is the primary efficacy endpoint; overall survival (OS) is the key secondary endpoint. Other secondary efficacy endpoints are ORR, duration of response, and PFS based on investigator assessment. Safety assessments include serious and treatment-emergent adverse events, physical examinations, vital signs, and clinical laboratory parameters. Health-related quality of life will also be measured. Long-term follow-up will continue after the primary analysis every 3 months until death, withdrawal of consent, loss to follow-up, or trial closure. Efficacy analyses will include all randomized subjects, and safety analyses will include all randomized subjects who received ≥ 1 dose of trial treatment. For further information on this trial, visit ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03523585). Citation Format: Fabrice André, Javad Shahidi, Caleb Lee, Kongming Wang, Ian E Krop. [Fam-] trastuzumab deruxtecan (T-DXd; DS-8201a) vs investigator’s choice of treatment in subjects with HER2-positive, unresectable and/or metastatic breast cancer who previously received T-DM1: A randomized, phase 3 trial (DESTINY-Breast02) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2019 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2019 Dec 10-14; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2020;80(4 Suppl):Abstract nr OT1-07-04.

AIMS: Methoxy polyethylene glycol‐epoetin beta (continuous erythropoietin receptor activator, C.E.R.A.) is used for the treatment of anaemia in adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Patients treated with shorter‐acting erythropoiesis‐stimulating agents up to three times weekly can be switched to once‐monthly C.E.R.A.. Doses can be adjusted on a monthly basis based on haemoglobin (Hb) levels during the preceding period. A model‐based approach was applied to optimise C.E.R.A. development, more specifically the confirmatory trial of the paediatric plan. METHODS: Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic data from a phase II paediatric study and phase II and III adult studies were analysed together using modelling and simulation to determine the pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic characteristics of C.E.R.A. in a broad population. Model‐based simulations of C.E.R.A. treatment outcomes in paediatric patients were performed, notably when administered subcutaneously and compared to clinical and real‐world data. RESULTS: Age and body weight explained differences in pharmacokinetics, while the pharmacodynamic characteristics of C.E.R.A. were similar between adult and paediatric populations. Simulated Hb levels (mean and 95% prediction interval 10.9 [10.6, 11.2] g dL(−1)) and C.E.R.A. doses (median and 95% prediction interval 105 [72, 159] μg) 20 weeks after switching to subcutaneous C.E.R.A. were confirmed by observed real‐world data from International Pediatric Dialysis Network registries (mean Hb was 10.8 g dL(−1) and median C.E.R.A. dose was 100 μg). CONCLUSIONS: These analyses have facilitated optimisation of the C.E.R.A. development programme in paediatric patients with anaemia of CKD to provide this patient population with faster access to the drug while avoiding unnecessary clinical trial exposure and related monitoring burden in children.

Background A 2014 Cochrane review evaluating the effect of anabolic steroids after hip fracture concluded that the quality of the studies was insufficient to draw conclusions on the effects and recommended further high-quality trials in the field. Therefore, the aim of this pilot trial is to determine the preliminary effect and feasibility of a 12-week multimodal intervention consisting of physiotherapy (with strength training), protein-rich nutritional supplement and anabolic steroid on knee-extension muscle strength and function 14 weeks after hip fracture surgery. Methods We plan to conduct a randomized, placebo-controlled pilot trial with 48 patients operated for acute hip fracture. The patients are randomized (1:1) to either (1) physiotherapy with protein-rich nutritional supplement plus anabolic steroid or (2) physiotherapy with protein-rich nutritional supplement plus placebo. Outcome assessments will be carried out blinded at baseline (3–10 days after surgery) and at 14 weeks after entering the trial. Primary outcome is the change from baseline to follow-up in maximal isometric knee-extension muscle strength in the fractured limb. Secondary outcomes are physical performance test, patient-reported outcomes, and measures of body composition. Discussion If the trial is found feasible and the results show an indication of anabolic steroid being a relevant addition to further enhance the recovery of muscle strength and function in an enhanced recovery after surgery program, this trial will constitute the basis of a larger confirmatory trial. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03545347. Preregistered on 4 June 2018.

Industrial practitioners are working on predictive solutions for the precise evaluation of input parameters and processed surfaces of engineering materials. To aid the aeronautical industry, this study is an effort to develop the mathematical modelling for comprehensive surface analysis of input parameters and surface finish after dry machining of CLARM HBR, a steel alloy with attractive mechanical properties and wide applications in large caliber gun barrels and high-pressure vessels. Feed rate, rotational speed, and depth of cut were taken as quantitative parameters, whereas machining time was considered as a categorical factor with a classification of three levels. Response surface methodology (RSM) with a central component design has been used for the constitution of the experimental design, mathematical modelling, and analysis of developed models. Eighteen samples were prepared to perform the experimentation for the development of prediction models. The adequacy of the developed models was verified using analysis of variance (ANOVA), and the models were validated using confirmatory trial experiments, which revealed the experimental results agreeing with predictions. The feed rate was the most significant parameter in achieving the desired surface finish. An increase in rotational speed at a low feed rate resulted in very fine surface texture, as though it deteriorated the surface finish at higher feed rates. The superior surface quality obtained was 0.137 μm at parametric settings of 0.19 mm/rev feed, 90 rpm speed, 3 mm depth of cut, and 4 min time. Overall, higher values of surface roughness were frecorded in the third level of process variable time. The developed empirical models are expected to aid manufacturers and machining practitioners in the prediction of the desired surface finish concerning different parameters before the experimentations.

Aims: Cancer drugs are increasingly approved through expedited regulatory pathways including the European conditional marketing authorization (CMA). Whether, when taking CMA post-approval confirmatory trials into account, the level of evidence and clinical benefit between CMA and standard approved (SMA) drugs differs remains unknown. Methods: We identified all CMA cancer indications converted to SMA in 2006–2020 and compared these to similar SMA indications with regard to pivotal trial and CMA post-approval confirmatory trial design, outcomes and demonstrated clinical benefit (per the European Society for Medical Oncology Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale). We tested for differences in clinical benefit and whether substantial clinical benefit was demonstrated. To account for the clinical benefit of unconverted CMA indications, we performed sensitivity analyses. Results: We included 15 SMA and 15 converted CMA cancer indications (17 remained unconverted). Approval of 11 SMA (73%) and four CMA indications (27%) was supported by a controlled trial. Improved overall survival (OS) was demonstrated for four SMA indications (27%). Improved quality of life (QoL) was demonstrated for three SMA (20%) and one CMA indication(s) (7%). Of subsequent CMA post-approval confirmatory trials, 11 were controlled (79%), one demonstrated improved OS (7%) and five improved QoL (36%). After conversion, CMA indications were associated with similar clinical benefit (P =.31) and substantial clinical benefit as SMA indications (risk ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 0.57–3.4). Conclusion: While CMA cancer indications are initially associated with less comprehensive evidence than SMA indications, levels of evidence and clinical benefit are similar after conversion from CMA to SMA.

Background: Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is a widely accepted and minimally invasive treatment for early gastric cancer (EGC) without the risk of lymph node metastasis (LNM). However, undifferentiated-type EGC (UD-EGC) is considered to have a relatively high risk of LNM. Recently, the Japan Clinical Oncology Group conducted a nonrandomized confirmatory trial (JCOG1009/1010) to evaluate the efficacy and safety of ESD for UD-EGC. Herein, we review the results of JCOG1009/1010 and the possibility of further expanding the indications for ESD. Summary: JCOG1009/1010 showed excellent technical results and 5-year overall survival in patients with UD-EGC. Based on the results, ESD for UD-EGC (cT1a) of ≤2 cm without ulceration was technically feasible and acceptable for standard treatment instead of gastrectomy with lymph node dissection. A review of the EGC of mixed histological type (mixed EGC) suggested that the mixed EGC might have worse biological behavior than the pure histological type. In cases of intramucosal EGC with pure signet-ring cell carcinoma or presenting a double-layer structure, the risk of LNM might be relatively low. Thus, there is a possibility of further expanding the indications or curative evaluations. In the case of UD-EGC after noncurative resection, the data suggest that the eCura system may be applicable to UD-EGC; however, due to the small number of cases, further study is warranted. Key Message: This review summarizes the present knowledge regarding indications for UD-EGC and the possibility of further expanding them.

ObjectivesThis two-group randomised controlled trial evaluates the feasibility of an Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT)-based internet intervention for diabetes distress in people with diabetes type 1 or type 2. Participants were assigned to a guided self-help intervention (EG) or waitlist control group (CG).SettingRecruitment took place following an open recruitment strategy including different diabetes centres, self-help groups and social media platforms.ParticipantsEligibility criteria comprised being 18 years of age or older, self-reported diagnosis of type 1 or type 2 diabetes, internet access, sufficient German language skills and written informed consent.InterventionACTonDiabetes is an internet-based and mobile-based intervention and comprises an introduction and seven modules (one module per week, processing time about 45–60 min). Intervention contents are based on ACT.Primary and secondary outcome measuresParticipants were assessed before and 8 weeks after randomisation. Primary outcome was feasibility (trial recruitment, acceptability). Potential group differences in diabetes distress and other outcomes at follow-up were analysed using linear regression models with baseline values as predictors. All analyses were based on an intention-to-treat principle, potential negative effects were analysed on per-protocol basis.ResultsFrom October 2017 to April 2018, N=42 people with diabetes consented and were randomised (EG n=21, CG n=21). Forty-three per cent of the EG completed all treatment modules within 8 weeks. Across modules, formative user feedback revealed that contents could be optimised regarding comprehensibility (34%), individualisation (20%) and text amount (21%). Overall, 57% of participants dropped out prior to full treatment completion. There were reductions of diabetes distress in the EG (d=0.65, p=0.042).ConclusionsModifications of the intervention content according to the user feedback will be performed to further improve acceptability. Mechanisms to foster intervention adherence should be considered for lowering the attrition rate. ACTonDiabetes is feasible for the implementation in a confirmatory trial.Trial registration numberWHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform via the German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS) (DRKS00013193).

Defining the target population based on predictive biomarkers plays an important role during clinical development. After establishing a relationship between a biomarker candidate and response to treatment in exploratory phases, a subsequent confirmatory trial ideally involves only subjects with high potential of benefiting from the new compound. In order to identify those subjects in case of a continuous biomarker, a cut-off is needed. Usually, a cut-off is chosen that resulted in a subgroup with a large observed treatment effect in an exploratory trial. However, such a data-driven selection may lead to overoptimistic expectations for the subsequent confirmatory trial. Treatment effect estimates, probability of success, and posterior probabilities are useful measures for deciding whether or not to conduct a confirmatory trial enrolling the biomarker-defined population. These measures need to be adjusted for selection bias. We extend previously introduced Approximate Bayesian Computation techniques for adjustment of subgroup selection bias to a time-to-event setting with cut-off selection. Challenges in this setting are that treatment effects become time-dependent and that subsets are defined by the biomarker distribution. Simulation studies show that the proposed method provides adjusted statistical measures which are superior to naïve Maximum Likelihood estimators as well as simple shrinkage estimators.

Objectives To assess the feasibility, and demonstrate the preliminary relative efficacy of, individual and/or combined financial incentives interventions for physical activity. Design Eighty participants were randomised to conditions receiving either: (i) a monetary contingency contract (where individuals deposit money, forfeited or returned depending on goal achievement) plus a standard financial incentive (simple reward upon achievement), (ii) a monetary contingency contract only, (iii) a standard incentive only, or controls groups (iv) with or (v) without a set behavioural goal. Feasibility was investigated through assessment of intervention acceptability, cost-effectiveness, study retention, contamination and missing data. The effects of the interventions on (i) physical activity (daily steps over 2-weeks) and (ii) potential mediators (e.g. intentions) were assessed also. Results Indicators of feasibility were generally positive, with high acceptability ratings, low drop-out and low missing data. Participants receiving monetary contingency contracts plus standard financial incentives had (i) increased steps above controls (with some evidence of superiority over monetary contingency contract-only participants), (ii) the highest prevalence of goal achievement and cost-effectiveness (being between 57 and 317% cheaper per goal achiever versus other conditions) and (iii) larger deposits than contingency contract-only participants (with some evidence that higher deposits increased steps). There was evidence of contamination between participants, but the results were mostly robust after excluding ‘contaminated’ participants. No differences were observed on psychological mediators. Conclusion This feasibility trial found promising results for a combined strategy approach to physical activity incentivisation, though a larger confirmatory trial is required.

There are few reports on the technical difficulty of gastric endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). The aim of this study was to investigate the factors associated with the technical difficulty of ESD for early gastric cancer (EGC) using the data from the multicenter non-randomized confirmatory trial of expanded indication criteria of ESD (JCOG0607).The major inclusion criteria were as follows: (1) histologically proven intestinal-type adenocarcinoma; (2) cT1aN0M0; (3) lesion without finding of ulcer (UL-negative) with 2 cm in size, or UL-positive with ≤ 3 cm; (4) age 20-75 years. The difficult case was defined as ESD taking ≥ 120 min, piecemeal resection, and/or developing perforation during procedure.Between June 2007 and October 2010, 470 patients were enrolled from 29 institutions. Median procedure time was 79 (range 14-462) min, and it was ≥ 120 min in 127 patients. Twelve patients developed perforation during ESD, and the procedure time was ≥ 120 min in 9 of them. Therefore, 130 patients (27.7%) were identified as difficult cases. Multivariable analysis showed that UL-negative with 5 cm (vs. UL-negative with ≤ 3 cm, odds ratio, 24.993; 95% CI 6.130-101.897, p 0.0001) had the largest odds ratio and followed by UL-negative with 3-5 cm upper or middle portion of stomach and age ≤ 60 years were significantly associated with difficulty.UL-negative lesion with 3 cm, upper or middle portion of stomach and age ≤ 60 years were independent factors associated with technical difficulty of ESD for EGC. Trial registered number was UMIN000000737.

In this article, I review the key elements of the proposed International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use E9 Addendum, present a constructive critique, and provide recommendations of how it can be improved. To highlight ideas, I present a case study involving a confirmatory trial for a chronic pain medication.

Background Human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2) is an effective therapeutic target in breast cancer; however, resistance to anti-HER2 agents such as trastuzumab and lapatinib develops. In a preclinical model, an HDAC inhibitor epigenetically reversed the resistance of cancer cells to trastuzumab and showed synergistic efficacy with lapatinib in inhibiting growth of trastuzumab-resistant HER2-positive (HER2+) breast cancer. Methods A phase 1b, dose escalation study was performed to assess maximum tolerated dose, safety/toxicity, clinical efficacy and explored pharmacodynamic biomarkers of response to entinostat combined with lapatinib with or without trastuzumab. Results The combination was safe. The MTD was lapatinib, 1000 mg daily; entinostat, 12 mg every other week; trastuzumab, 8 mg/kg followed by 6 mg/kg every 3 weeks. Adverse events included diarrhoea (89%), neutropenia (31%), and thrombocytopenia (23%). Neutropenia, thrombocytopenia and hypokalaemia were noted. Pharmacodynamic assessment did not yield conclusive results. Among 35 patients with evaluable response, PR was observed in 3 patients and CR in 3 patients, 1 maintained SD for over 6 months. Discussion This study identified the MTD of the entinostat, lapatinib, and trastuzumab combination that provided acceptable tolerability and anti-tumour activity in heavily pre-treated patients with HER2+ metastatic breast cancer, supporting a confirmatory trial.

Discrepancies in efficacy between single-dose and repeated administration of oxytocin for autism spectrum disorder have led researchers to hypothesize that time-course changes in efficacy are induced by repeated administrations of the peptide hormone. However, repeatable, objective, and quantitative measurement of autism spectrum disorder’s core symptoms are lacking, making it difficult to examine potential time-course changes in efficacy. We tested this hypothesis using repeatable, objective, and quantitative measurement of the core symptoms of autism spectrum disorder. We examined videos recorded during semi-structured social interaction administered as the primary outcome in single-site exploratory (n = 18, crossover within-subjects design) and multisite confirmatory (n = 106, parallel-group design), double-blind, placebo-controlled 6-week trials of repeated intranasal administrations of oxytocin (48 IU/day) in adult males with autism spectrum disorder. The main outcomes were statistical representative values of objectively quantified facial expression intensity in a repeatable part of the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule: the maximum probability (i.e. mode) and the natural logarithm of mode on the probability density function of neutral facial expression and the natural logarithm of mode on the probability density function of happy expression. Our recent study revealed that increases in these indices characterize autistic facial expression, compared with neurotypical individuals. The current results revealed that oxytocin consistently and significantly decreased the increased natural logarithm of mode on the probability density function of neutral facial expression compared with placebo in exploratory (effect-size, −0.57; 95% CI, −1.27 to 0.13; P = 0.023) and confirmatory trials (−0.41; −0.62 to −0.20; P < 0.001). A significant interaction between time-course (at baseline, 2, 4, 6, and 8 weeks) and the efficacy of oxytocin on the natural logarithm of mode on the probability density function of neutral facial expression was found in confirmatory trial (P < 0.001). Post hoc analyses revealed maximum efficacy at 2 weeks (P < 0.001, Cohen’s d = −0.78; 95% CI, −1.21 to −0.35) and deterioration of efficacy at 4 weeks (P = 0.042, Cohen’s d = −0.46; 95% CI, −0.90 to −0.01) and 6 weeks (P = 0.10, Cohen’s d = −0.35; 95% CI, −0.77 to 0.08), while efficacy was preserved at 2 weeks post-treatment (i.e. 8 weeks) (P < 0.001, Cohen’s d = −1.24; 95% CI, −1.71 to −0.78). Quantitative facial expression analyses successfully verified the positive effects of repeated oxytocin on autistic individuals’ facial expressions and demonstrated a time-course change in efficacy. The current findings support further development of an optimized regimen of oxytocin treatment.

Composite is prepared using vetiveria zizanioides as reinforcement and polyester as the matrix. The developed composite has been subjected to drilling experiments based on central composite design. Spindle speed, feed rate and point angle are taken as the input factors and two outputs namely, thrust and torque are studied. The study includes analysis of relationship between the input and output factors and a mathematical model to predict the output response. The outputs are optimized considering a minimization approach and optimum condition are drawn. Confirmatory trial experiment are made and compared with the optimum condition. The comparison showed a satisfactory result.

External pilot trials of complex interventions are used to help determine if and how a confirmatory trial should be undertaken, providing estimates of parameters such as recruitment, retention, and adherence rates. The decision to progress to the confirmatory trial is typically made by comparing these estimates to pre-specified thresholds known as progression criteria, although the statistical properties of such decision rules are rarely assessed. Such assessment is complicated by several methodological challenges, including the simultaneous evaluation of multiple endpoints, complex multi-level models, small sample sizes, and uncertainty in nuisance parameters. In response to these challenges, we describe a Bayesian approach to the design and analysis of external pilot trials. We show how progression decisions can be made by minimizing the expected value of a loss function, defined over the whole parameter space to allow for preferences and trade-offs between multiple parameters to be articulated and used in the decision-making process. The assessment of preferences is kept feasible by using a piecewise constant parametrization of the loss function, the parameters of which are chosen at the design stage to lead to desirable operating characteristics. We describe a flexible, yet computationally intensive, nested Monte Carlo algorithm for estimating operating characteristics. The method is used to revisit the design of an external pilot trial of a complex intervention designed to increase the physical activity of care home residents.

Purpose/Objective(s) Tumor hypoxia is associated with poor response to radiation (RT) and chemotherapy, and worse treatment outcome. We previously discovered a novel mechanism of metformin in a xenograft model: enhancing tumor RT response by inhibiting tumor cell oxygen consumption. Our population-based study showed that cumulative dose of metformin after cervical cancer diagnosis was independently associated with a decreased risk of cervical cancer-specific mortality in diabetic women. Based on the pre-clinical and retrospective data, we hypothesized that metformin would decrease tumor hypoxia and improve tumor response to RT in locally advanced cervical cancer. Materials/Methods A window-of-opportunity, phase II randomized trial was performed in women with stage IB-IVA cervical adenocarcinoma, squamous cell or adenosquamous carcinoma. Patients underwent screening positron emission tomography (PET) imaging with hypoxia tracer fluoroazomycin arabinoside (FAZA). Those with non-hypoxic tumor (no FAZA uptake) were excluded. Patients with FAZA uptake were randomized centrally in a 2:1 ratio (in favor of metformin) to receive either metformin in combination with standard chemoRT or standard chemoRT alone. Metformin was started at 850mg once daily x 3 days, followed by 850mg twice daily throughout the entire duration of external radiotherapy. A second FAZA-PET/CT scan was performed after 1 week of metformin or no intervention in control group, just before start of chemoRT. The hypoxic volume was defined as all voxels within a tumor with standardized uptake values (SUVs) greater than 3 standard deviations (SD) from the mean gluteus maximus muscle SUV value. The hypoxic fraction (HF) was defined as the ratio of the number of hypoxic voxels to the total number of tumor voxels. The primary endpoint was absolute mean change in HF between the two FAZA-PET scans, compared using the Wilcoxon sign rank test. Disease-free survival (DFS) was defined as the duration of time from randomization to the time of relapse or death and compared using the log-rank test. Target accrual was 48 patients; the study was closed early to accrual due to FAZA availability and the COVID-19 pandemic. Results Of the twenty patients who consented, 6 were excluded due to no FAZA uptake and 1 withdrew. The median age of the 13 enrolled patients was 52; 8 (62%) had squamous cell carcinoma and 8 had stage IIB disease. HF of the 10 patients in the metformin arm decreased by an average of 10.2% (from 44.4% to 34.2%) ± SD 16.9% after 1 week of metformin, compared to an average increase of 4.7% (from 29.1% to 33.8%) ± 11.5% for the 3 patients in the control arm (P = 0.027). With a median follow-up of 2.8 years, the 2-year DFS was 67% for the metformin arm vs 33% for control (P = 0.09). Conclusion Metformin decreases cervical tumor hypoxia with a trend towards improved DFS in this trial. A larger confirmatory trial is warranted.

Rationale & Objective: An early change in proteinuria is considered a reasonably likely surrogate end point in immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) and can be used as a basis for accelerated approval of therapies, with verification in a postmarketing confirmatory trial. Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) slope is a recently validated surrogate end point for chronic kidney disease progression and may be considered as the end point used for verification. We undertook a metaanalysis of clinical trials in IgAN to compare treatment effects on change in proteinuria versus change in estimated GFR (eGFR) slope.Study Design: Individual patient-level metaanalysis.Setting & Study Populations: Individual data of 1,037 patients from 12 randomized trials. Selection Criteria for Studies: Randomized trials of IgAN with proteinuria measurements at baseline and 6 (range, 2.5-14) months and at least a further 1 year of follow-up for the clinical outcome.Analytical Approach: For each trial, we estimated the treatment effects on proteinuria and on the eGFR slope, computed as the total slope starting at baseline or the chronic slope starting 3 months after randomization. We used a Bayesian mixed-effects analysis to relate the treatment effects on proteinuria to effects on GFR slope across these studies and developed a prediction model for the treatment effect on the GFR slope based on the effect on proteinuria.Results: Across all studies, treatment effects on proteinuria accurately predicted treatment effects on the total slope at 3 years (median R-2 = 0.88; 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI], 0.06-1) and on the chronic slope (R-2 = 0.98; 95% BCI, 0.29-1). For future trials, an observed treatment effect of approximately 30% reduction in proteinuria would confer probabilities of at least 90% for nonzero treatment benefits on the total and chronic slopes of eGFR. We obtained similar results for proteinuria at 9 and 12 months and total slope at 2 years. Limitations: Study population restricted to 12 trials of small sample size, leading to wide BCIs. There was heterogeneity among trials with respect to study design and interventions.Conclusions: These results provide new evidence supporting that early reduction in proteinuria can be used as a surrogate end point for studies of chronic kidney disease progression in IgAN.

Background: Blackgram [Vigna mungo (L.) Hepper] is a rich source of protein. It is one of the major crops essentially involved in daily human diets. However, storage pest bruchine [Callosobruchus maculatus (F.)] is a major production constraint for legumes. A research was formulated to assess the bruchine resistance in 20 blackgram genotypes along with the biochemical analysis to find out the active biochemical components responsible for the resistance activity.Methods: The experiment was carried out during August- October, 2019 at Entomology Laboratory, National Pulses Research Center, Vamban, India. The experimental material comprised of 20 blackgram genotypes which were screened for bruchine resistance. Further, confirmatory trial was conducted with selected resistant entries and highly susceptible entries during October- December, 2019. Both experiments were carried out in completely randomized design and replicated three times. GC-MS analysis on the resistant and susceptible entries were performed to ascertain the active biochemical components conferring resistance.Result: Among the genotypes, TU 68 had comparatively late developmental time (days), less number of adult emergence, higher mean developmental period (days), less susceptibility index, less seed damage (%) and less seed weight loss (%). Genotype TU 68 was found to be resistant in the confirmatory trial also. Less number of adult emergence and higher mean developmental period indicated the delayed developmental period which is a mechanism of bruchine resistance. GC-MS analysis on resistant (TU 68) and susceptible (MDU 1) genotypes indicated the presence of active biochemical compounds with insectifuge activity in TU 68. Hence, TU 68 could be utilized in the hybridization programmeas donor for bruchine resistance.

When physician Babar Khan started studying delirium seven years ago, he set out to find a drug that could sooth the agitation, inattention, and hallucinations that characterize the disorder. Delirium is common in the intensive care units (ICUs) where Khan works, most recently as an ICU physician at Indiana University School of Medicine and a researcher at Regenstrief Institute, both in Indianapolis. Some 70–80% of ventilated patients in the ICU experience episodes of delirium that not only prolong their stay in hospital but can also lead to long-term cognitive decline. Neurologists, cognitive neuroscientists, and clinicians are coming together to study the therapeutic potential of music. Image credit: Shutterstock/agsandrew. In the mid-2000s, Khan led two antipsychotic drug trials, neither of which worked for delirium. “So I started looking into more holistic interventions,” he says. He recalled seeing some evidence, drawn from assessments of anxiety and sedative exposure in hospital patients, suggesting that music can not only ease anxiety in the ICU but can help with pain management (1). The music-related findings would spur Khan to start investigating music as an alternative to pharmaceuticals. He recently co-led a 2020 pilot trial using music to alleviate delirium in mechanically ventilated ICU patients. Encouragingly, he found that relaxing, slow-tempo classical music reduced patients’ number of delirium days (2). That study is one of many new projects seeking evidence for music as a medical therapy. Cultures have used music in healing for centuries. Although the evidence is still limited, a growing body of research offers increasing promise for music’s health benefits. And the field is seeing a new injection of funding. Based on his pilot trial, Khan secured funding for a confirmatory trial through the Sound Health initiative, a partnership between the the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Washington, DC-based John F. …

Funder: Biometrika Trust, Sample size derivation is a crucial element of planning any confirmatory trial. The required sample size is typically derived based on constraints on the maximal acceptable Type I error rate and minimal desired power. Power depends on the unknown true effect and tends to be calculated either for the smallest relevant effect or a likely point alternative. The former might be problematic if the minimal relevant effect is close to the null, thus requiring an excessively large sample size, while the latter is dubious since it does not account for the a priori uncertainty about the likely alternative effect. A Bayesian perspective on sample size derivation for a frequentist trial can reconcile arguments about the relative a priori plausibility of alternative effects with ideas based on the relevance of effect sizes. Many suggestions as to how such "hybrid" approaches could be implemented in practice have been put forward. However, key quantities are often defined in subtly different ways in the literature. Starting from the traditional entirely frequentist approach to sample size derivation, we derive consistent definitions for the most commonly used hybrid quantities and highlight connections, before discussing and demonstrating their use in sample size derivation for clinical trials.

Background Oxytocin is expected as a novel therapeutic agent for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) core symptoms. However, previous results on the efficacy of repeated administrations of oxytocin are controversial. Recently, we reported time-course changes in the efficacy of the neuropeptide underlying the controversial effects of repeated administration; however, the underlying mechanisms remained unknown. Methods The current study explored metabolites representing the molecular mechanisms of oxytocin’s efficacy using high-throughput metabolomics analysis on plasma collected before and after 6-week repeated intranasal administration of oxytocin (48 IU/day) or placebo in adult males with ASD (N = 106) who participated in a multi-center, parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized controlled trial. Results Among the 35 metabolites measured, a significant increase in N,N-dimethylglycine was detected in the subjects administered oxytocin compared with those given placebo at a medium effect size (false discovery rate (FDR) corrected P = 0.043, d = 0.74, N = 83). Furthermore, subgroup analyses of the participants displaying a prominent time-course change in oxytocin efficacy revealed a significant effect of oxytocin on N,N-dimethylglycine levels with a large effect size (PFDR = 0.004, d = 1.13, N = 60). The increase in N,N-dimethylglycine was significantly correlated with oxytocin-induced clinical changes, assessed as changes in quantifiable characteristics of autistic facial expression, including both of improvements between baseline and 2 weeks (PFDR = 0.006, r = − 0.485, N = 43) and deteriorations between 2 and 4 weeks (PFDR = 0.032, r = 0.415, N = 37). Limitations The metabolites changes caused by oxytocin administration were quantified using peripheral blood and therefore may not directly reflect central nervous system changes. Conclusion Our findings demonstrate an association of N,N-dimethylglycine upregulation with the time-course change in the efficacy of oxytocin on autistic social deficits. Furthermore, the current findings support the involvement of the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor and neural plasticity to the time-course change in oxytocin’s efficacy. Trial registration: A multi-center, parallel-group, placebo-controlled, double-blind, confirmatory trial of intranasal oxytocin in participants with autism spectrum disorders (the date registered: 30 October 2014; UMIN Clinical Trials Registry: https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000017703) (UMIN000015264).

Objective: To test the effectiveness of electroacupuncture (EA) for managing intractable neuropathic pain (NeP) and assess the protocol for a larger confirmatory trial. Design: A prospective, multi...

Clinical trials are primarily conducted to understand the average effects treatments have on patients. However, patients are heterogeneous in the severity of the condition and in ways that affect what treatment effect they can expect. It is therefore important to understand and characterize how treatment effects vary. The design and analysis of clinical studies play critical roles in evaluating and characterizing heterogeneous treatment effects. This panel discussed considerations in design and analysis under the recognition that there are heterogeneous treatment effects across subgroups of patients. Panel members discussed many questions including: What is a good estimate of the treatment effect in me, a 65-year-old, bald, Caucasian-American, male patient? What magnitude of heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE) is sufficiently large to merit attention? What role can prior evidence about HTE play in confirmatory trial design and analysis? Is there anything described in the 21st Century Cures Act that would benefit from greater attention to HTE? An example of a Bayesian approach addressing multiplicity when testing for treatment effects in subgroups will be provided. We can do more or better at understanding heterogeneous treatment effects and providing the best information on heterogeneous treatment effects.