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The increasing availability of gambling opportunities worldwide has the potential to impact youth gambling behavior and the prevalence of gambling-related harm. This paper studies whether starting gambling at an early age (i.e., below the minimum legal gambling age) increases an individual's likelihood of suffering some kind of gambling-related harm in the future. Data taken from the Study on the Prevalence, Behavior and Characteristics of Gamblers in Spain provide information on respondents' gambling starting age and assess gambling risk based on criteria established by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV). Estimates from an ordered probit model suggest that starting to gamble while under the minimum legal age is associated with a higher likelihood of problem gambling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When designing a randomized clinical trial to compare two treatments, the sample size required to have desired power with a specified type 1 error depends on the hypothesis testing procedure. With a binary endpoint (e.g., response), the trial results can be displayed in a 2 × 2 table. If one does the analysis conditional on the number of positive responses, then using Fisher's exact test has an actual type 1 error less than or equal to the specified nominal type 1 error. Alternatively, one can use one of many unconditional "exact" tests that also preserve the type 1 error and are less conservative than Fisher's exact test. In particular, the unconditional test of Boschloo is always at least as powerful as Fisher's exact test, leading to smaller required sample sizes for clinical trials. However, many statisticians have argued over the years that the conditional analysis with Fisher's exact test is the only appropriate procedure. Since having smaller clinical trials is an extremely important consideration, we review the general arguments given for the conditional analysis of a 2 × 2 table in the context of a randomized clinical trial. We find the arguments not relevant in this context, or, if relevant, not completely convincing, suggesting the sample‐size advantage of the unconditional tests should lead to their recommended use. We also briefly suggest that since designers of clinical trials practically always have target null and alternative response rates, there is the possibility of using this information to improve the power of the unconditional tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Postoperative complications following liver resection remain high, ranging from 20% to 50%. Patients are hospitalized for a certain period of time following liver resection because of the risk of postoperative complications. We hypothesized that the risk of complications decreases with each complication‐free postoperative day after open and minimally invasive liver resections and can be stratified using a recently reported three‐level complexity classification. Methods: Patients undergoing first liver resection without concomitant other organ resections between 2006 and 2019 were included. The three‐level complexity classification was used to categorize liver resection procedures into grades I–III. We assessed the rate of cumulative postoperative complications from the time of liver resection to the time of post‐hepatectomy complications (≥ Clavien–Dindo grade II). Results: Of the 911 patients included, 200 underwent resection of grade I procedures, 185 underwent resection of grade II procedures, and 526 underwent resection of grade III procedures. The risks of post‐hepatectomy complications changed over time and were stratified by surgical complexity. For patients at the time of liver resection, the estimated 30‐day complication rate was 21.8% for open grade I resection, 26.7% for open grade II resection, 38.4% for open grade III resection, 8.6% for laparoscopic grade I resection, and 12.5% for laparoscopic grade II resection. For patients without complications at 7 days, the estimated 30‐day complication rate decreased to 2.1% for open grade I, 9.2% for open grade II, 17.6% for open grade III, 1.3% for laparoscopic grade I, and 4.5% for laparascopic grade II. Conclusions: The post‐hepatectomy complication risks were stratified by surgical complexity, liver resection approach, and the period without complication after liver resection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Conditional survival analysis can serve as a dynamic prognostic metric, which helps to estimate the real-time survival probability over time. The present study conducted a conditional recurrence-free survival (CRFS) analysis for locally advanced intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) after R0 hepatectomy from an inflammatory-nutritional perspective using the competing risk method. Methods: We extracted the medical data of 164 locally advanced ICC patients after R0 resection from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center. The calculation formula of the CRFS rate is CRFS(y/x) = RFS(y + x)/RFS(x). Univariable and multivariable COX regression analysis and competing risk analysis were conducted to identify RFS indicators. Results: Considering death before recurrence as a competing risk factor, the conditional RFS rates every 6 months gradually increased over time. The 24-month RFS rate increased from 29.2 % to 49.9 %, 68.5 %, and 85.1 % given 6, 12, and 18-month already recurrence-free survival, respectively. Both in multivariate COX regression analysis and competing risk analysis, tumor diameter and number, lymph node metastasis, aggregate systemic inflammation index score (AISI), and albumin-bilirubin score (ALBI) all remained significant. For both AISI and ALBI variables, the CRFS rates in the low-value set were higher than those of the high-value set. Conclusions: Conditional RFS rates of locally advanced ICC after R0 hepatectomy dynamically increased over time, which contributed to reducing survivors' psychological distress and facilitating personalized follow-up schedules. In addition, a person's inflammatory and nutritional status significantly impact the recurrence risk. Oncologists should consider the role of inflammation-nutritional status when making decisions for patients with locally advanced ICC.

Accurate and effective quantitative trait locus（QTL）mapping is the prerequisite for gene cloning and molecular breeding. Plant growth and development are affected by external environmental factors, and phenotypes at different developmental stages are formed due to the dynamic expressions of different major genes or QTLs. The conventional gene/QTL analysis based on the phenotypic data collected at stationary growth phase can only be used to estimate the cumulative effects of QTLs over a long period of time. It cannot reveal the actual effects and functional modes of the loci during the developmental process. Besides, the static QTL mapping method neglected the dynamic expression patterns of QTLs, leading to missing of information about dynamic variations of quantitative traits. Dynamic QTL analysis of the whole growth cycle provides an elite strategy for investigating the genetic mechanisms and dissecting major QTLs underlying plant growth and development. In this review, we briefly summarized the genetic models and analytical methods for dynamic QTL detection, as well as the research progress on mapping quantitative traits of plant development. We further proposed the current issues and future trends in the area of dynamic QTL analysis, which would provide references not only for dynamic QTL analysis during plant growth and development but also for molecular breeding based on marker-assisted selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extremal dependence describes the strength of correlation between the largest observations of two variables. It is usually measured with symmetric dependence coefficients that do not depend on the order of the variables. In many cases, there is a natural asymmetry between extreme observations that cannot be captured by such coefficients. An example for such asymmetry is large discharges at an upstream and a downstream stations on a river network: an extreme discharge at the upstream station will directly influence the discharge at the downstream station, but not vice versa. Simple measures for asymmetric dependence in extreme events have not yet been investigated. We propose the asymmetric tail Kendall's τ as a measure for extremal dependence that is sensitive to asymmetric behavior in the largest observations. It essentially computes the classical Kendall's τ but conditioned on the extreme observations of one of the two variables. We show theoretical properties of this new coefficient and derive a formula to compute it for existing copula models. We further study its effectiveness and connections to causality in simulation experiments. We apply our methodology to a case study on river networks in the United Kingdom to illustrate the importance of measuring asymmetric extremal dependence in hydrology. Our results show that there is important structural information in the asymmetry that would have been missed by a symmetric measure. Our methodology is an easy but effective tool that can be applied in exploratory analysis for understanding the connections among variables and to detect possible asymmetric dependencies. Plain Language Summary: Compound events describe situations where the simultaneous behavior of two or more variables lead to severe impacts. For instance, the dependence between climate or hydrological variables can lead to particular conditions that result in extreme events at the same time in different locations. Since the physical processes behind these phenomena are very complex, there can be a stronger influence from one variable on another than the other way around. In such cases, there is asymmetry in the dependence between the extreme observations of the two variables. The traditional measures of dependence are symmetric and cannot detect any asymmetries. We propose a new measure that is sensitive to asymmetric behavior in extremes. It is based on an extension of the Kendall's τ coefficient, a classical dependence measure. We derive evidence from theory and simulation experiments for the effectiveness of our new methodology. We then apply it to a case study on river networks in the United Kingdom where we show that our measure detects asymmetric behavior of extreme discharges with a preferred direction from upstream to downstream stations. Our work points out the importance of considering proper tools for analyzing the connections between different variables in particular in the presence of asymmetry in extreme observations. Key Points: Coefficients that can detect asymmetry in dependence among extremes are crucial since traditional methods rely on assumption of symmetryWe propose a conditional version of Kendall's tau that allows to detect asymmetries between extremes, conditioning on one variable at a timeThis new measure can be used for exploratory analysis, model assessment, and to detect directional asymmetries or causal structures in extremes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A proper understanding of agentive modals promises to clarify issues to do with free will, know how, and other philosophically interesting topics. In this paper I identify one constraint on, and one structural feature of, trying-based versions of the conditional analysis of the agentive modals. I suggest that the constraint and structural feature together provide a novel account of why the famous Lehrer-Chisholm objection to conditional analyses of ability modals is so powerful. I argue that Mandelkern et al.'s 'Agentive Modals' (Philosophical Review,126/3, 301–343, 2017) conditional analysis of the agentive modals fails to avoid this problem. I also identify two further problems for their account. I close by summarising a number of criteria which any successful semantic analysis of the agentive modals should satisfy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The idea of multiple options for action in a specific situation is essential for choice and deliberation. But what exactly is an option for action? A simple and natural approach to this question is via conditional analyses. While conditional analyses of dispositions and abilities face well‐known objections and are widely considered untenable, I argue that several of these objections do not apply to conditional analyses of options. Others do, but the analyses can be modified or interpreted in a suitable way so as to deal with them. One central difficulty, however, remains and can only partially be resolved. Still, all things considered, the prospects of conditional analyses of options for action are quite good; they should not be lightly dismissed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Expression quantitative trait locus detection has become increasingly important for understanding how noncoding variants contribute to disease susceptibility and complex traits. The major challenges in expression quantitative trait locus fine-mapping and causal variant discovery relate to the impact of linkage disequilibrium on signals due to one or multiple functional variants that lie within a credible set. We perform expression quantitative trait locus fine-mapping using the all-but-one approach, conditioning each signal on all others detected in an interval, on the Consortium for the Architecture of Gene Expression cohorts of microarray-based peripheral blood gene expression in 2,138 European-ancestry human adults. We contrast these results with traditional forward stepwise conditional analysis and a Bayesian localization method. All-but-one conditioning significantly modifies effect-size estimates for 51% of 2,351 expression quantitative trait locus peaks, but only modestly affects credible set size and location. On the other hand, both conditioning approaches result in unexpectedly low overlap with Bayesian credible sets, with just 57% peak concordance and between 50% and 70% SNP sharing, leading us to caution against the assumption that any one localization method is superior to another. We also cross reference our results with ATAC-seq data, cell-type-specific expression quantitative trait locus, and activity-by-contact-enhancers, leading to the proposal of a 5-tier approach to further reduce credible set sizes and prioritize likely causal variants for all known inflammatory bowel disease risk loci active in immune cells. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Conditional survival analysis can serve as a dynamic prognostic metric, which helps to estimate the real-time survival probability over time. The present study conducted a conditional recurrence-free survival (CRFS) analysis for locally advanced intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) after R0 hepatectomy from an inflammatory-nutritional perspective using the competing risk method., Methods: We extracted the medical data of 164 locally advanced ICC patients after R0 resection from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center. The calculation formula of the CRFS rate is CRFS(y/x) = RFS(y + x)/RFS(x). Univariable and multivariable COX regression analysis and competing risk analysis were conducted to identify RFS indicators., Results: Considering death before recurrence as a competing risk factor, the conditional RFS rates every 6 months gradually increased over time. The 24-month RFS rate increased from 29.2 % to 49.9 %, 68.5 %, and 85.1 % given 6, 12, and 18-month already recurrence-free survival, respectively. Both in multivariate COX regression analysis and competing risk analysis, tumor diameter and number, lymph node metastasis, aggregate systemic inflammation index score (AISI), and albumin-bilirubin score (ALBI) all remained significant. For both AISI and ALBI variables, the CRFS rates in the low-value set were higher than those of the high-value set., Conclusions: Conditional RFS rates of locally advanced ICC after R0 hepatectomy dynamically increased over time, which contributed to reducing survivors' psychological distress and facilitating personalized follow-up schedules. In addition, a person's inflammatory and nutritional status significantly impact the recurrence risk. Oncologists should consider the role of inflammation-nutritional status when making decisions for patients with locally advanced ICC., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2024 The Authors.)

The conditional analysis of the meaning of the phrase “free will” is a classical compatibilist strategy, first introduced by David Hume and still widely used by compatibilists. The consequence argument is an influential argument against compatibilism. If the consequence argument is sound, then physical determinism is incompatible with alternative possibilities for any agent. In this article, I consider the relationship between the consequence argument and classical compatibilism. I demonstrate that the consequence argument uses premises that should be rejected by proponents of the counterfactual conditional analysis of free will

PURPOSE: The objective of the study was to understand dynamic risk (conditional analysis based on patient age) for new tumor development in patients with solitary unilateral retinoblastoma. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis. RESULTS: Of 482 patients with solitary unilateral retinoblastoma, 55 new tumors developed in 20 patients (4%). Comparison (new tumor vs. no new tumor development) revealed those with new tumor demonstrated younger mean age at presentation (10 vs. 36 months, P < 0.001), greater likelihood of family history of retinoblastoma (35% vs. 3%, P < 0.001), and greater probability of primary tumor location in the macula (50% vs. 15%, P = 0.003). Conditional risk for new tumors (at age 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24 months) declined for those who presented at 0-3 months old (25%, 15%, 15%, 8%, and 0%), >3-6 months old (17%, 14%, 6%, 6%, and 0%), >6-9 months old (not applicable [na], 6%, 6%, 0%, and 0%), and >9-12 months (na, na, 3%, 3%, and 0%). Younger patients showed greater development of bilateral tumors (P < 0.001). Of patients with new tumors, those that occurred within 1 year from presentation were located in the preequatorial region in 46%, whereas those that occurred more than 1 year from presentation were preequatorial in 78%. Patients =24 months at initial presentation demonstrated all new tumors by 24 months of age. Older patients (>24 months at presentation) showed new tumors up to 56 months of age. CONCLUSION: Children (=24 months) with solitary unilateral retinoblastoma showed decreasing risk for new tumors up to 24 months of life. Later onset of new tumor was more likely located in preequatorial region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have used Mendelian randomization (MR) to investigate the observational association between low birth weight (BW) and increased risk of cardiometabolic outcomes, specifically cardiovascular disease, glycemic traits, and type 2 diabetes (T2D), and inform on the validity of the Barker hypothesis. We used simulations to assess the validity of these previous MR studies, and to determine whether a better formulated model can be used in this context. Genetic and phenotypic data were simulated under a model of no direct causal effect of offspring BW on cardiometabolic outcomes and no effect of maternal genotype on offspring cardiometabolic risk through intrauterine mechanisms; where the observational relationship between BW and cardiometabolic risk was driven entirely by horizontal genetic pleiotropy in the offspring (i.e. offspring genetic variants affecting both BW and cardiometabolic disease simultaneously rather than a mechanism consistent with the Barker hypothesis). We investigated the performance of four commonly used MR analysis methods (weighted allele score MR (WAS-MR), inverse variance weighted MR (IVW-MR), weighted median MR (WM-MR), and MR-Egger) and a new approach, which tests the association between maternal genotypes related to offspring BW and offspring cardiometabolic risk after conditioning on offspring genotype at the same loci. We caution against using traditional MR analyses, which do not take into account the relationship between maternal and offspring genotypes, to assess the validity of the Barker hypothesis, as results are biased in favor of a causal relationship. In contrast, we recommend the aforementioned conditional analysis framework utilizing maternal and offspring genotypes as a valid test of not only the Barker hypothesis, but also to investigate hypotheses relating to the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease more broadly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article explores the possibilities of using product-naming techniques to create new urban place names. The author reveals the distinctive nature of this approach among other naming strategies, which consists in the pragmatic focus of the name-creation process, split in a series of successive operations with each step having its specific means and purpose, and ultimately aimed at delivering correct perception. These stages include: consideration of context-driven factors for naming the promotion object; defining the image-building effects of the name (positioning); overview of existing designations used for similar objects; identifying distinctive features of the promotion object to provide for its competitive advantages, both in terms of perception and applications; working out variants of the name, checking if these are consistent with the ongoing image-related tasks and communicative expediency; selection of final variants; perception testing by target audiences; checking the name’s legal cleanliness and compliance with linguistic standards (name evaluation). The research suggests that the use of the product-naming algorithm is not restricted to the commercial sphere but can equally apply for the creation of official city toponyms. The hypothesis builds on a marketing approach to territorial positioning, a modern conception of holistic imaging of space, and the practice of designing individual locations. By extrapolating the marketing methodology, the author evaluates the applicability of the staged approach in the creation of toponyms and explains its peculiarities for the designated realia. Best practices for the creation of a comprehensive and consistent toponymic landscape are listed, based on the activity of the toponymic commissions of Moscow, St. Petersburg, Ekaterinburg, and Perm. The paper also emphasizes the importance of analytical consideration of extra-linguistic and linguistic information collected at the pre-naming stage and outlines a structure of a creative brief for place naming. Potential strategies for the evaluation of topographic objects names are discussed in the end.

Background: Postoperative complications following liver resection remain high, ranging from 20% to 50%. Patients are hospitalized for a certain period of time following liver resection because of the risk of postoperative complications. We hypothesized that the risk of complications decreases with each complication-free postoperative day after open and minimally invasive liver resections and can be stratified using a recently reported three-level complexity classification., Methods: Patients undergoing first liver resection without concomitant other organ resections between 2006 and 2019 were included. The three-level complexity classification was used to categorize liver resection procedures into grades I-III. We assessed the rate of cumulative postoperative complications from the time of liver resection to the time of post-hepatectomy complications (≥ Clavien-Dindo grade II)., Results: Of the 911 patients included, 200 underwent resection of grade I procedures, 185 underwent resection of grade II procedures, and 526 underwent resection of grade III procedures. The risks of post-hepatectomy complications changed over time and were stratified by surgical complexity. For patients at the time of liver resection, the estimated 30-day complication rate was 21.8% for open grade I resection, 26.7% for open grade II resection, 38.4% for open grade III resection, 8.6% for laparoscopic grade I resection, and 12.5% for laparoscopic grade II resection. For patients without complications at 7 days, the estimated 30-day complication rate decreased to 2.1% for open grade I, 9.2% for open grade II, 17.6% for open grade III, 1.3% for laparoscopic grade I, and 4.5% for laparascopic grade II., Conclusions: The post-hepatectomy complication risks were stratified by surgical complexity, liver resection approach, and the period without complication after liver resection., (© 2023 The Authors. Journal of Hepato‐Biliary‐Pancreatic Sciences published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Society of Hepato‐Biliary‐Pancreatic Surgery.)

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is a rapid and simple analytical method that provides qualitative and quantitative elemental information of samples without damaging them and does not require any sample preparation. Recently, an increasing number of studies have used LIBS to detect aerosols. This technique meets the requirements to be used in some practical applications, such as atmospheric monitoring and industrial processes. However, the unique properties of aerosols bring a level of uncertainty to the LIBS signals of the samples, which is an obstacle to overcome. This review attempts to summarize the relevant research regarding aerosol-LIBS, including the various apparatuses, conditional analysis methods, effects of plasma–particle interactions, means for improving signal intensity, and applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gait recognition in elderly patient monitoring is a standard process that employs medical healthcare systems, wearable sensors, motion capturing devices, and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). The patterns of the patient movement are observed at different time instances for identifying the abnormality in gaits to provide better assistance. In this article, a novel Overlapping Gait Pattern Recognition method based on Regression Learning (RL) is introduced. This method classifies the gait pattern based on the direction of movement and angle of deviation of the patient at the initial stage. The analyses of differentiation are performed using RL for identifying the errors and differences in gait patterns through correlation. The errors are recurrently analyzed through different iterates for approximating the recognition accuracy in a reduced time. The classification of patterns through correlation and conditional analysis of the regression helps identify the errors through intense learning and deviation identification. The proposed method is found to achieve better recognition accuracy, fewer error rates, and smaller recognition delays for different gait patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We prove a general existence result in stochastic optimal control in discrete time, where controls, taking values in conditional metric spaces, depend on the current information and past decisions. The general form of the problem lies beyond the scope of standard techniques in stochastic control theory, the main novelty is a formalization in conditional metric space and the use of conditional analysis. We illustrate the existence result by several examples such as wealth-dependent utility maximization under risk constraints and utility maximization with a conditional dimension. We also provide a discussion as to how our methods compare to techniques based on random sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although several mechanisms have been suggested as explanations for the low-frequency unsteadiness in shock wave/turbulent boundary layer interactions, questions remain on causes and effects. In this effort, we examine the observed asymmetry in large-scale shock motions to highlight which of the suggested mechanisms is most consistent with shock-speed observations and accompanying separation dynamics. The analysis is based on a flowfield obtained from a validated large eddy simulation of a fully separated interaction. A statistical analysis is used to determine the speed of bubble collapse relative to dilation. The low-pass filtering required to separate upstream from downstream motions in the presence of higher-frequency jitter is accomplished with a relatively new technique, empirical mode decomposition, that is very appropriate for this purpose. The dynamics of bubble dilation versus collapse are then elaborated with conditional dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) analyses on the respective pressure fields. Bubble breathing is shown to have a different structure during dilation than during collapse—larger structures are observed during collapse when fluid is expelled from the bubble. The nature of the DMD mode associated with Kelvin–Helmholtz (K–H) shedding in the mixing layer also differs between dilation and collapse: When the bubble is dilating, the structures at the dominant K–H frequency are larger than when the bubble is collapsing. Additionally, a link is established between the convecting K–H structures and corrugation observed along the reflected shock. Some aspects of the nature of the asymmetry are linked to the ease of eddy formation (K–H structures), which plays an important role in the collapse of the bubble. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate by means of direct numerical simulation how large-scale circulations produce deviations from Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) in the limit of free convection, disentangling the role of large-scale downdrafts from updrafts using conditional analysis. We compare the convective boundary layer to two other free-convective flows: Rayleigh–Bénard convection with an adiabatic top lid and classical Rayleigh–Bénard convection. This serves a dual purpose: firstly, to ascertain how changes in the upper boundary conditions and thereby in the large-scale circulations modify the near-surface behaviour and secondly, to assess to what extent we can extrapolate results from idealized systems to the unstable atmospheric surface layer. Using a low-pass filter to define the large scales we find that, whilst deviations from MOST occur within large-scale downdraft regions, strong deviations also occur within large-scale updraft regions. The deviations within updrafts are independent of the filter length scale used to define the large-scale circulations, independent of whether updrafts are defined as ascending air, or as air that is both ascending and positively buoyant, and are not due to changes with height of the updraft area fraction. This suggests that even updraft properties are not just determined locally, but also by outer scales. Cold, strong downdrafts in classical Rayleigh–Bénard convection notably modify the near-surface behaviour compared to the other two systems. For the moderate Reynolds numbers considered, Rayleigh–Bénard convection with an adiabatic top lid thus seems more appropriate than classical Rayleigh–Bénard convection for studying the unstable atmospheric surface layer in the limit of free convection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

'Unexplained residuals' models have been used within lifecourse epidemiology to model an exposure measured longitudinally at several time points in relation to a distal outcome. It has been claimed that these models have several advantages, including: the ability to estimate multiple total causal effects in a single model, and additional insight into the effect on the outcome of greater-than-expected increases in the exposure compared to traditional regression methods. We evaluate these properties and prove mathematically how adjustment for confounding variables must be made within this modelling framework. Importantly, we explicitly place unexplained residual models in a causal framework using directed acyclic graphs. This allows for theoretical justification of appropriate confounder adjustment and provides a framework for extending our results to more complex scenarios than those examined in this paper. We also discuss several interpretational issues relating to unexplained residual models within a causal framework. We argue that unexplained residual models offer no additional insights compared to traditional regression methods, and, in fact, are more challenging to implement; moreover, they artificially reduce estimated standard errors. Consequently, we conclude that unexplained residual models, if used, must be implemented with great care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Jackson (From metaphysics to ethics, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1998) argues that conceptual analysis plays a modest, albeit crucial, role in ‘serious metaphysics’: roughly, the project of demystifying phenomena we take to be mysterious by locating them in the natural world. This defence of conceptual analysis is associated with ‘the Canberra Plan’, a philosophical methodology that has its roots in the works of both Lewis (J Philos 67(13):427-446, 1970, Australas J Philos 50:249-258, 1972) and Jackson (Monist 77:93-110, 1994, 1998). There is, however, a distinction to be drawn between conceptual analysis, as it is typically employed in the Canberra plan, and a version of it defended by Jackson himself. In this paper, I elucidate this distinction, and employ examples from the history of science to argue the use of the former, but not the latter, incurs certain problems of conceptual change. Moreover, I also argue neither can be used to undertake serious metaphysics—the former because of the aforementioned problems, and the latter due to the machinery it employs to solve them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conditional analysis of dispositions is widely rejected, mainly due to counterexamples in which dispositions are either “finkish” or “masked.” David Lewis proposed a reformed conditional analysis. This view avoids the problem of finkish dispositions, but it fails to solve the problem of masking. I will propose a reformulation of Lewis’ analysis, and I will argue that this reformulation can easily be modified so that it avoids the problem of masking. In the final section, I will address the challenge that some dispositions appear to lack any stimulus condition, and I will briefly turn to the issue of reductionism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An adaptive sampling approach is proposed, which can sample spatially varying shear strength parameters efficiently to reduce uncertainty in the slope stability analysis. This approach employs a limit equilibrium model and stochastic conditional methodology to determine the likely sampling locations. Karhunen-Loève expansion is used to conduct the conditional Monte Carlo simulation. A first-order analysis is also proposed to ease the computational burden associated with Monte Carlo simulation. These approaches are then tested using borehole data from a field site. Results indicate that the proposed adaptive sampling approach is an effective and efficient sampling scheme for reducing uncertainty in slope stability analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the dynamic behaviour of energy intensity across Chinese cities. It employs a dynamic distribution approach which takes economic size into consideration. The results support the existence of convergence in terms of energy intensity among Chinese cities during the sample period. However, bimodality is the dominant characteristic in the long-term distribution using the full sample. The results also show that the distribution dynamics of energy intensity differ greatly among city groups in terms of geographical location, environmental policy, and population size. Weighting by economic size does not change the convergence trend of energy intensity, but has a significant influence on the long-term distribution. Neglecting economic size may overstate the energy reduction performance in Chinese cities. Furthermore, the results also suggest that geographical location, income level, and city population size have a significant impact on the spatial distribution dynamics of energy intensity. However, the formation of convergence clubs is complicated and thus requires further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simultaneous point measurements of temperature, mixture fraction, major species (H 2 , H 2 O, O 2 , N 2 ) concentrations from KrF laser-induced spontaneous Raman scattering and minor species (OH) concentrations from KrF laser-induced predissociative fluorescence (LIPF) in unswirled ( S g  = 0), low swirl ( S g  = 0.12), and high swirl ( S g  = 0.5) lifted turbulent hydrogen jet diffusion flames into still air are reprocessed to obtain profiles of the Favre-averaged scalars and conditional moments. Large discrepancies between the Favre-averaged and ensemble-averaged temperature, H 2 O, and OH mole fractions are found at the lifted flame region, due to density weighting of fairly large samples of unreacted mixtures. Conditional statistics are used to reveal the reaction zone structure in mixture fraction coordinates. The cross-stream dependence of conditional means of temperature and species concentration is found to be significant in the lifted flame region of the swirled flames and decreases to negligible levels with increasing streamwise position. Comparison of the measured conditional mean variation of OH vs. H 2 O with a series of stretched laminar partially premixed flame and diffusion flame calculations reveals that for the unswirled flame, the differential molecular diffusion and radial dependence of conditional means are minor at x/D  = 6.4 for stretch rates from a  = 14,000 to 400 s -1 . For the low and high swirling flames, however, the measured OH vs. H 2 O conditional means at the lifted flame region are not consistent with stretched laminar flame calculations. The level of partial premixing and the stretch rate decrease with increasing downstream locations. The estimated stretch rate at x/D  = 53.5 is about 50–10 s -1 , while at x/D  = 107 the stretch rate is about 10 s -1 with some measurements at adiabatic equilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 'Finkish Dispositions', David Lewis proposed a revised conditional analysis of dispositions, designed to rule out counterexamples based on finkish dispositions and finkish lacks of dispositions. Bird and Choi have argued that Lewis's amended analysis is vulnerable to two further types of counterexamples trading on mimicked and masked dispositions. This paper provides a diagnosis of why Lewis's analysis inherits these problems, and investigates whether the means can be found-in Lewis's paper or elsewhere-to defend his analysis against the counterexamples. A range of strategies for defending conditional analyses against masking and mimicking counterexamples are assessed. The conclusion is that none of them will save Lewis's analysis; some strategies fail, while the rest threaten to make Lewis's amendments redundant. The discussion offers a number of general lessons about how (and how not) to defend conditional analyses of dispositions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The performance of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) to identify and quantify gold and silver in ore samples was evaluated. Ores from a gold-producing mine and samples artificially doped with Au and Ag solutions to previously defined concentrations (surrogates) were prepared as 50-mm pellets prior to LIBS analysis. Silver detection and intensity measurement was straightforward for concentrations from 0.4 to 43 μg/g and from 1.1 to 375 μg/g in ore and surrogate samples, respectively. Au emission lines were not found after ensemble average or accumulation of 100-single shot LIBS spectra of ore samples containing up to 9.5 μg/g Au. However, the Au signal was present in the spectra of surrogate samples, for which a detection limit of about 0.8 μg/g was determined. When the number of sampling shots in ore samples increased, various single shot spectra registered Au emission lines. The number of spectra containing Au emission lines increased with the number of single shots. Those results, as well as scanning electron microscopy analysis of ore samples, suggest that the discrete analyte distribution as well as the inherent discrete characteristics associated to LIBS made the presence of gold in the LIBS spark an unlikely occurrence. The particle sampling rates (the percentage of laser pulses expected to sample at least one particle) were estimated for gold concentrations of 1.1 and 10.0 μg/g as 0.04% and 0.32%, respectively. A Monte Carlo simulation indicated that > 100 gold-containing particles should be sampled to accurately represent the discrete character of gold in the ore. Sampling 100 such particles requires > 10 5 laser pulses over a single pellet. Despite the fact that this rather large number of shots makes difficult to conduct conditional analysis on pellets, for some samples that withstood 5000 shots, gold quantification in ores was successfully achieved at concentrations as low as 1 μg/g. Results are encouraging and illustrate the applicability of LIBS to gold and silver in field semi-quantitative analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides are characterized by their capacity to generate losses. In Colombia, a considerable percentage of those are associated with linear projects; between 2010-2011, 575 municipalities were affected by damage to the infrastructure of water supply network and sanitation. Considering this serious problem related to linear projects, the present work proposes the combination of heuristic, statistical and physical based methods to evaluate the susceptibility and hazard of landslides, under different scales of analysis. In addition to the construction of a critical unit map, using as the unit of analysis the Independent Morphodynamic Unit. The obtained model is validated using the success curves and the Area Under the Curve (AUC). The proposed methodology was implemented in the pipeline of the municipal aqueduct of the municipality of Fredonia in the Antioquia region. It was identified 6% of areas, both unstable and very high and high susceptibility; and 13% of areas corresponding to both cataclinal over dip and pure dip slope, as well as areas of very high and high susceptibility. The AUC for the conditional analysis and the criticality map showed a value of 0.81 and 0.73 indicating a very good fit and performance of the models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The improvement for drought tolerance requires understanding of the genetic control of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) reaction to drought. In this study, a set of 131 recombinant inbred lines of wheat were investigated under well-watered (WW) and drought stress (DS) environments across 2 years to map quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for yield and physiological traits. A total of 225 QTLs were detected, including 32 non-environment-specific loci that were significant in both DS and WW, one drought-specific locus and two watering-specific loci. Three consistently-expressed QTLs (QTkw-3A.2, QTss-1A, and QScn-7A.1) were identified in at least three environments and the QTkw-1D.1 was significant in DS across the 2 years. By unconditional and conditional QTL analysis, spike number per plant and kernel number per spike were more important than thousand-kernel weight for grain yield (GY) at the given genetic background. Meta-analysis identified 67 meta-QTLs that contained QTLs for at least two traits. High frequency co-location of QTLs was found among either the spike-related traits or the six physiological traits. Four photosynthesis traits (CHL, LWUE, PN, and Ci) were co-located with GY and/or yield components on various MQTLs. The results provided QTLs that warrant further study for drought tolerance breeding and are helpful for understanding the genetic basis of drought tolerance and the genetic contribution of yield components to GY at individual QTL level in wheat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Asthma is a heterogeneous disease in which age of onset plays an important role. Objective We sought to identify the genetic variants associated with time to asthma onset (TAO). Methods We conducted a large-scale meta-analysis of 9 genome-wide association studies of TAO (total of 5462 asthmatic patients with a broad range of age of asthma onset and 8424 control subjects of European ancestry) performed by using survival analysis techniques. Results We detected 5 regions associated with TAO at the genome-wide significant level ( P < 5 × 10 −8 ). We evidenced a new locus in the 16q12 region (near cylindromatosis turban tumor syndrome gene [CYLD] ) and confirmed 4 asthma risk regions: 2q12 (IL-1 receptor–like 1 [IL1RL1] ), 6p21 (HLA-DQA1) , 9p24 (IL33) , and 17q12-q21 (zona pellucida binding protein 2 [ZPBP2] –gasdermin A [GSDMA] ). Conditional analyses identified 2 distinct signals at 9p24 (both upstream of IL33 ) and 17q12-q21 (near ZPBP2 and within GSDMA ). Together, these 7 distinct loci explained 6.0% of the variance in TAO. In addition, we showed that genetic variants at 9p24 and 17q12-q21 were strongly associated with an earlier onset of childhood asthma ( P ≤ .002), whereas the 16q12 single nucleotide polymorphism was associated with later asthma onset ( P = .04). A high burden of disease risk alleles at these loci was associated with earlier age of asthma onset (4 vs 9-12 years, P = 10 −4 ). Conclusion The new susceptibility region for TAO at 16q12 harbors variants that correlate with the expression of CYLD and nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain 2 (NOD2) , 2 strong candidates for asthma. This study demonstrates that incorporating the variability of age of asthma onset in asthma modeling is a helpful approach in the search for disease susceptibility genes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]