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Countries that specialize in commodity exports often exhibit a correlation between the relevant commodity price and the value of their currency. We explore an explanation for this correlation based on the present‐value, monetary model of the exchange rate. An increase in the commodity price leads to an increase in the expected, future policy interest rate and so to an immediate appreciation. We test the model's over‐identifying restrictions for Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. There, controlling for the effect of commodity prices in predicting current and future monetary policy leaves those prices no significant, remaining role in statistically explaining exchange rates.

A well documented stylized fact in commodity‐exporting countries is the robust relationship between commodity prices and real exchange rates. However, empirical evidences of factors that affect the strength of the commodity price‐real exchange rate connection remain inconclusive. In this paper, we investigate how structural and financial factors affect the relationship between world commodity prices and the Brazilian real exchange rate during the floating exchange rate regime. The key results show that the strength of the real exchange rate response to real commodity price fluctuations depends on the trade openness in the long run and on the country risk in the short run. Our findings provide important insights for the appropriated design of foreign exchange policy in Brazil.

This paper extends the empirical literature on volatility risk premium (VRP) and future returns by analyzing the predictive ability of commodity currency VRP and commodity VRP. The empirical evidence throughout this paper provides support for a positive relationship of commodity currencies VRP and future commodity returns, but only for the period after the 2008 global financial crisis. This predictability survives the inclusion of control variables like equity VRP and past currency returns. Furthermore, gold VRP also has the ability to predict future commodity returns. However, this predictability is restricted to precious metals when control variables are considered.

This study examined the effect of exchange rate variation on Nigeria economy. The objective was to investigate how Naira exchange rate variations against key currencies affect the country’s real gross domestic product. Time series data was sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. Real gross domestic products were modeled as the function of United State commodity currency, British commodity currency, Japanese yen currency, Chinese yen currency and French franc currency. The ordinary least square method was used as data analysis techniques. The study used cointegration, unit root, and granger causality test and error correction estimate to study the dynamic effects of commodity currencies on financial market. The study found that naira exchange rate variation with the currencies can explain 65 percent variation on Nigerian real gross domestic products while the remaining 35 percent estimation can be traced to external variables not included in the model. The estimated f-test proved that the model is fit while the estimated DW statistics found the presence of positive serial autocorrelation among the variables. The estimated beta coefficient of the variables revealed that commodity currency of US; Japanese yen and Chinese yen have positive and significant effect on Nigeria real gross domestic products while British pound and French Franc have negative effect on Nigeria real gross domestic products. From the co-integration test, we found at least two co-integrating equation from the trace test and maximum eigenvalue. The granger causality test found unidirectional causality from real gross domestic products to Chinese yen and from French Franc to real gross domestic products. The study found that in the long run, Japanese and Chinese yen and French Franc have negative long run effect on Nigeria real gross domestic products; while United States dollar and British Pound Sterling have positive long run effect on Nigeria gross domestic products. The study recommended amongst others that Monetary and macroeconomic policies should be properly articulated with an impregnable feedback loop, implemented to the letter, and a quarterly examination of the impact on the Naira should be regularly engaged, evaluated, interpreted and ensure that the results and possible remedial action(s) get to the appropriate authority timeously so as to ensure well informed decision(s).

This paper evaluates the welfare implications of alternative monetary policy regimes for a small commodity-exporting economy. In line with the existing literature, welfare analysis shows that a flexible exchange rate regime tends to outperform a fixed nominal exchange rate. However, this paper shows that the welfare costs of a nominal peg vary considerably with the extent of international risk-sharing. In a model with complete and frictionless asset markets, real exchange rate volatility is small, and welfare losses from the nominal peg are negligible. By contrast, under financial autarky, a fixed nominal exchange rate generates significant volatility in inflation and results in large welfare costs. I also consider the welfare properties of flexible regimes, showing that core consumer inflation targeting and non-commodity domestic inflation targeting are not generally optimal, although their welfare costs are small compared to those of a fixed regime. Furthermore, the welfare ranking of these two regimes might depend on the currency in which the tradable goods are priced (producer-currency pricing vs. local-currency pricing).

The sanctions imposed against Russia in 2014 coincided with a shock in the oil market. It is believed that both the sanctions and the fall in prices over oil have affected both the ruble exchange rate, which devalued by 2 times in relation to the pre-crisis level. The authors of the article assess the impact of sanctions on the ruble exchange rate using ensemble empirical mode decomposition and Hurst exponent. Based on the theory of an effective market, the results of the article shown that in 2014–2015 there was no direct impact of sanctions on the ruble exchange rate. Additionally, the impact of panic in the foreign exchange market on the exchange rate has been estimated, and it is also shown that the foreign exchange market has a long memory.

Cet article a pour objectif de remettre en cause une affirmation répandue au sujet de la théorie marxienne de la monnaie, selon laquelle cette dernière ne serait capable de rendre compte que des formes monétaires matérielles. Nous y démontrons que des éléments de la théorie marxienne permettent de rendre compte de l’évolution des formes monétaires matérielles vers une forme immatérielle de la monnaie. Par ailleurs, la théorie marxienne peut maintenir sa cohérence et conserver le principe de la valeur-travail dès lors que l’on considère (avec Jean Cartelier) que la création monétaire ne se fait pas ex nihilo. The purpose of this article is to question the assertion usually made about the Marxian theory of money: the latter would only be capable of accounting for material forms of money. We show that elements of Marxian theory make it possible to account for the evolution of material monetary forms towards an immaterial form. Furthermore, Marxian theory can maintain its consistency and retain the principle of labor value as long as we consider (with Jean Cartelier) that monetary creation does not take place ex nihilo. Este artículo tiene por objetivo poner en cuestion una afimación muy conocida con respecto a la teoria marxiana de la moneda según la cual esta última solo sería capaz de dar cuenta de las formas monetarias materiales. Nosotros demostramos que los elementos de la teoría marxiana permiten dar cuenta de la evolución de las formas monetarias materiales hacia una forma inmaterial de la moneda. Por otra parte, la teoría marxiana puede mantener su coherencia y conservar el principio del valor trabajo desde que se considera (con Jean Cartelier) que la creación monetaria no se hace ex nihilo.

This paper examines connectedness spillovers among three blocks of markets: commodities (agriculture, industrial metals, precious metals, energy, and livestock), currencies (EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY, AUD, CAD) and six major stock markets. At the aggregate level, we find that stock markets transmit the largest spillovers to the commodity and currency markets, while the commodity markets receive the largest spillovers from the other two markets. Stocks spill over more strongly on commodities than on currencies, commodities more on currencies than on stocks, and currencies more on commodities than on stocks, while stocks receive the smallest spillovers from the commodity and currency markets. At a more specific level, the currencies transmit/receive the largest spillovers to/from industrial metals and precious metals, and EUR and JPY are the largest and smallest transmitters/receivers of spillovers to/from the other currencies, respectively. The commodities transmit/receive the largest spillovers to/from the FTSE UK and TSX CA stock markets, the TOPIX JP and ASX AU transmit the smallest spillovers to the commodities, and currencies transmit/receive the largest spillovers to/from the S&P500 US and the TSX CA markets. These results may be useful to international investors for diversification purposes, risk management, and asset portfolio hedging.

Resumo A discussão sobre política monetária, a moeda e sua natureza voltou ao centro do debate econômico no Brasil e no mundo. No cerne do debate proposto estão questões centrais, como, por exemplo, a da impossibilidade de um governo soberano não honrar dívidas denominadas em sua própria moeda, proposição central da Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), além da colocação em dúvida do que foram, até pouco tempo atrás, pressupostos basilares da teoria econômica convencional, como por exemplo a imprescindibilidade de uma organização da política monetária em torno do estabelecimento de um Banco Central Independente que persiga metas de inflação. Nesse contexto, este artigo possui dois objetivos principais. Primeiro, busca-se identificar com maior precisão as molduras teóricas que sustentam duas visões distintas sobre o que é a moeda em uma economia capitalista plenamente desenvolvida. De um lado, a visão da moeda-mercadoria, que incorpora a construção teórica da economia política clássica; de outro, a moeda vista como uma instituição social, pertencente ao arcabouço teórico de matriz keynesiano-marxista. Segundo, busca-se compreender os principais pressupostos da MMT e seus pontos de convergência e divergência em relação às duas visões supracitadas. A partir da perspectiva keynesiano-marxista, conclui-se que não se sustentam as abordagens teóricas que tratam Estados e mercados como entes abstratos, que operam em cenários ideais, afastados das reais condições econômicas, sociais e políticas do momento presente, dentre as quais se destaca a MMT. Abstract The debate on monetary policy, currency and its nature has returned to the center of the economic debate in Brazil and in the world. At the heart of the proposed debate are central issues, such as, the impossibility of a sovereign government to not honor debts denominated in its own currency, the central proposition of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), in addition to putting into doubt what were, until recently, basic assumptions of conventional economic theory, such as the indispensability of a monetary regime supported by an Independent Central Bank, that pursues inflation targets. In this context, this article has two main objectives. First, it seeks to identify more precisely the theoretical frameworks that support two different views on what currency is in a fully developed capitalist economy. On the one hand, the view of the commodity currency, which incorporates the theoretical construction of classical political economy; on the other, currency seen as a social institution, belonging to the Keynesian-Marxist theoretical framework. Second, it seeks to understand the main assumptions of MMT and its points of convergence and divergence in relation to the two views mentioned above. From the Keynesian-Marxist perspective, it is concluded that the theoretical approaches that treat states and markets as abstract entities, operating in ideal scenarios, far from the real economic, social and political conditions of the present moment, such as MMT, are not supported.

Long-range dependency of the volatility of exchange-rate time series plays a crucial role in the evaluation of exchange-rate risks, in particular for the commodity currencies. The Australian dollar is currently holding the fifth rank in the global top 10 most frequently traded currencies. The popularity of the Aussie dollar among currency traders belongs to the so-called three G&rsquo, s&mdash, Geology, Geography and Government policy. The Australian economy is largely driven by commodities. The strength of the Australian dollar is counter-cyclical relative to other currencies and ties proximately to the geographical, commercial linkage with Asia and the commodity cycle. As such, we consider that the Australian dollar presents strong characteristics of the commodity currency. In this study, we provide an examination of the Australian dollar&ndash, US dollar rates. For the period from 18:05, 7th August 2019 to 9:25, 16th September 2019 with a total of 8481 observations, a wavelet-based approach that allows for modelling long-memory characteristics of this currency pair at different trading horizons is used in our analysis. Findings from our analysis indicate that long-range dependence in volatility is observed and it is persistent across horizons. However, this long-range dependence in volatility is most prominent at the horizon longer than daily. Policy implications have emerged based on the findings of this paper in relation to the important determinant of volatility dynamics, which can be incorporated in optimal trading strategies and policy implications.

This chapter examines the scale, composition, and geographic distribution of cloth imports in the interior of central East Africa during the second half of the nineteenth century, when imported commodities—particularly cloth—were taken from Zanzibar into the adjacent mainland interior through what is today Tanzania to exchange for ivory. The price of imported cloth rose dramatically as imports moved inland, while the price of ivory was comparatively low in the interior but increased substantially as tusks neared the coast and Zanzibar, where they were sold at high rates to global buyers. As a result, even as central East Africa’s ivory exports boomed, and cloth imports into Zanzibar rose, the supply of imported cloth remained comparatively modest in much of the deep interior, where it was used as a valuable commodity currency through the century. This chapter argues that the effects of nineteenth-century cloth imports on interior textile industries were far more limited than many scholars have assumed.

The ‘commodity currency’ literature highlights the robust exchange rate response to fluctuations in global commodity prices that occurs for major commodity exporters. The magnitude of the response, however, varies widely across countries and over time horizons. This paper examines the real exchange rates of 51 commodity exporters over the period from 1980 to 2010, and finds that in the long-run, a higher degree of market power in the world commodity trade can reduce the exchange rate response, while in the short-run, an inflation targeting regime can amplify it. These differential impacts across countries and horizons are of particular relevance for monetary policy-making and for trade strategy in commodity-abundant economies.

This paper examines extreme co-movements between the Australian and Canadian currencies, often known as commodity currencies, and gold and oil markets respectively. Here, two main approaches based on extreme value theory are compared in the context of explaining the co-movements between the markets in times of market instability. On the one hand, the intensity of the extreme events is represented by self-exciting marked point processes using a multivariate extension of the Hawkes-POT model, while contemporaneous co-movements are characterized utilizing a more traditional multivariate volatility model, the DBEKK-EVT model. It is found that intensity and volatility follow similar paths through time. The Hawkes-POT model reveals the unidirectional influence of the commodity on the currency, consistent with previous literature. Hawkes-POT model produces slightly more accurate Value at Risk results in the in-sample period, while the results are mixed in the backtesting period. Overall it seems as though the simpler multivariate volatility based approach produce forecasts of extreme risk that are comparable to the more complex Hawkes model.

This paper investigates the effects of Chinese financial markets on commodity currency exchange rates (CCERs), employing an auto-regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and an SVAR model. The results show that the Chinese stock market and the Chinese Yuan Non-Deliverable Forwards market (CNY NDF market) had a significant impact on CCERs before the Global Financial Crisis in 2008/09 and this effect has extended to more commodity currencies after the Crisis. Further evidence shows that the CNY NDF market had a greater effect on CCERs than the Chinese stock market did. Nevertheless, our results also show that the effect of the Chinese financial markets on CCERs is weaker than that of the US stock market and the USD FX market.

© 2017 Elsevier B.V. Bitcoin is defined as digital money within a decentralized peer-to-peer payment network. It is a hybrid between fiat currency and commodity currency without intrinsic value and independent of any government or monetary authority. This paper analyses the question of whether Bitcoin is a medium of exchange or an asset and more specifically, what is its current usage and what usage will prevail in the future given its characteristics. We analyse the statistical properties of Bitcoin and find that it is uncorrelated with traditional asset classes such as stocks, bonds and commodities both in normal times and in periods of financial turmoil. The analysis of transaction data of Bitcoin accounts shows that Bitcoins are mainly used as a speculative investment and not as an alternative currency and medium of exchange.

Natural resource reserves are exogenous in models of small commodity exporters. Changes in the stock of reserves play no role in the macroeconomy including in business cycle volatility, trade dynamics or exchange rate volatility. We consider richer supply dynamics and model exploration and depletion. We show that an endogenous supply of reserves is important for capturing the stylised facts associated with commodity price shocks including a commodity currency, the crowding-out of non-commodity activity (Dutch-Disease) and a volatile business cycle. We also consider how exploration and depletion affect the ranking of optimal monetary and taxation policies. When natural resource reserves are held fixed, monetary policy is an efficient tool for stabilising the effects of commodity price shocks. However, when exploration and depletion are accounted for, using interest rates to stabilise the effects of commodity price changes becomes inefficient. Using taxes on the resource sector, specifically an ad valorem royalty, remains efficient.

The issue of discovering an optimal debt portfolio in case of oil company under oil price uncertainty is considered in the paper. New algorithm to build optimal debt structure is proposed. It is shown that optimal portfolio reduces financial risk in case of oil price uncertainty. Non-parametric approximation is used to describe functional relationship between US dollar and Russian ruble, considered as commodity currency.

Money being the blood of economy and main determinant of many human transactions is an important topic to be discussed. Throughout the history there have been many who tried to explain nature and desired form of money in their writings. This topic has not skipped writings of Islamic religious scholars and economists as well. Current work attempts to review some of recent literature about essence of money from Islamic prospective. The review works which express different views from both Religious and Economic perspectives by six selective authors with diverse backgrounds. In the review, we mainly focus at the role of money as a social contract (between State and its citizens) and at some Shari’ah compliance issues faced by commodity (gold and silver) and paper (fiat) currencies. Some of our important findings show that the commodity currency had problem of breach from State’s side in some occasions, while paper currency is considered as an invalid contract by majority of the authors. The work concludes with summary of the authors’ opinions and points out their relative strengths and weaknesses from Shari’ah and Economic prospective, which is extended with some recommendations for further research.

Countries that specialize in commodity exports often exhibit a correlation between the relevant commodity price and the value of their currency. We explore a natural but little-studied explanation for this correlation. An increase in the commodity price leads to increases in the future values of the international differential in policy interest rates. The tightening of expected future monetary policy relative to the US then leads to an immediate appreciation. We show theoretically that this correlation depends on the stance of monetary policy. We then derive a statistical model that embodies this mechanism and test the over-identifying restrictions for Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. For all three countries, controlling for the effect of commodity prices in predicting current and future monetary policy leaves them no significant, remaining role in statistically explaining exchange rates.

Countries that specialize in commodity exports often exhibit a correlation between the relevant commodity price and the value of their currency. We explore a natural but little-studied explanation for this correlation. An increase in the commodity price leads to increases in the future values of the international differential in policy interest rates. The tightening of expected future monetary policy relative to the US then leads to an immediate appreciation. We show theoretically that this correlation depends on the stance of monetary policy. We then derive a statistical model that embodies this mechanism and test the over-identifying restrictions for Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. For all three countries, controlling for the effect of commodity prices in predicting current and future monetary policy leaves them no significant, remaining role in statistically explaining exchange rates.

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the return and volatility spillovers across the commodity and currency markets for an expanded set of commodity-exporters and currencies that includes several emerging commodity-exporting nations in addition to the developed exporters that have often been the focus in the literature. Strong causal effects are observed, largely in the direction of commodities from currencies with several cases of bidirectional causality, particularly between gold and the New Zealand dollar, Brent oil and the Brazilian real, and copper and the Chilean peso. The causal effects from currencies to commodities are not only limited to return causality, but exist in the case of volatility as well, implying the presence of significant risk transmissions from currencies. We also show that causal effects from currencies to commodities have become more widespread during the period following the 2007–2008 global financial crisis. Overall, our findings imply that currency market dynamics have informative value for commodity return and volatility with significant implications for volatility forecasting and active management of commodity price fluctuations.

In this paper we show that survey-based-expectations about the future evolution of the Chilean exchange rate have the ability to predict the returns of the six primary non-ferrous metals: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Predictability is also found for returns of the London Metal Exchange Index. Previous studies have shown that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict copper returns, a world commodity index and base metal prices. Nevertheless, our results indicate that expectations about the Chilean peso have stronger predictive ability relative to the Chilean currency. This is shown both in-sample and out-of-sample. By focusing on expectations of a commodity currency, and not on the currency itself, our paper provides indirect but new and strong evidence of the ability that commodity currencies have to forecast commodity prices. Our results are also consistent with the present-value-model for exchange rate determination.

This paper presents a one-year forecast of European thermal coal spot prices by means of time series analysis, using data from IHS McCloskey NW Europe Steam Coal marker (MCIS). The main purpose was to achieve a good fit for the data using a quick and feasible method and to establish the transformations that better suit this marker, together with an affordable way for its validation. Time series models were selected because the data showed an autocorrelation systematic pattern and also because the number of variables that influence European coal prices is very large, so forecasting coal prices as a dependent variable makes necessary to previously forecast the explanatory variables. A second-order Autoregressive process AR(2) was selected based on the autocorrelation and the partial autocorrelation function. In order to determine if the results obtained are a good fit for the data, the possible drivers that move the European thermal coal spot prices were taken into account, establishing a hypothesis in which they were divided into four categories: (1) energy side drivers, that directly relates coal prices with other energy commodities like oil and natural gas; (2) demand side drivers, that relates coal prices both with the Western World economy and with emerging economies like China, in connection with the demand for electricity in these economies; (3) commodity currency drivers, that have an influence for holders of different commodity currencies in countries that export or import coal; and (4) supply side drivers, involving the production costs, transportation, etc. Finally, in order to analyse the time series model performance a Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) was used and its performance compared against the whole AR(2) process. Empirical results obtained confirmed that there is no statistically significant difference between both methods. The GRNN analysis also allowed pointing out the main drivers that move the European Thermal Coal Spot prices: crude oil, USD/CNY change and supply side drivers.

This paper provides new evidence on the role of exchange rates in forecasting commodity prices. Consistent with previous studies, we find that commodity currencies hold out-of-sample predictive power for commodity prices when using standard linear predictive regressions. After we reconsider the evidence using noncausal autoregressions, which provide a better fit to the data and are able to accommodate the effects of nonlinearities and omitted variables, the predictive power of exchange rates disappears. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

This chapter transfers the modern approach to seigniorage to a commodity currency. Seigniorage is earned as a fee for minting or by devaluation of coins. As a result and in contrast to a fiat currency an optimal seigniorage can be achieved by multiple combinations of these instruments. Hence without specifying further goals, like a constant unit metal content, there is no result comparable to that of a fiat currency. Another striking difference is different degree in of freedom of monetary policy that a government faces. The commodity basis limits the government in its monetary policy but renders hyperinflations highly unlikely.

This chapter deals with the history of economic thought regarding the revenue from the supply of currency, its justification, or, in more modern welfare-theoretical terms, its optimal level. It is confined mostly to continental European writers of the last three centuries. It is shown that different forms of organization of the currency supply constitute different instruments to generate seigniorage. Three regimes are distinguished: In a commodity currency, mints charge a tax on deliveries of the currency-commodity, e.g., gold. In a fiat currency, seigniorage is collected by issuing currency to finance government spending. In a credit currency, seigniorage is realized as interest payments to the government or its authorities. Regarding optimal seigniorage two approaches are distinguished. One determines seigniorage as optimal if it covers the cost (of production and maintenance) of the currency, the second builts upon the former but adds a broader utility based framework.

This paper examines the ‘commodity currency’ hypothesis of the Rand, that is, the postulate that the currency moves in line with commodity prices, and analyses the associated causality using nominal data between 1996 and 2010. We address both the short run and long run relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates. We find that while the levels of the series of both assets are difference stationary, they are not cointegrated. Further, we find the two variables are negatively related, with strong and significant causality running from commodity prices to the exchange rate and not vice versa, implying exogeneity in the determination of commodity prices with respect to the nominal exchange rate. The strength of the relationship is significantly weaker than other OECD commodity currencies. We surmise that the relationship is dynamic over time owing to the portfolio-rebalance argument and the Commodity Terms of Trade (CTT) effect and, in the absence of an error correction mechanism, this disconnect may be prolonged. For commodity and currency market participants, this implies that while futures and forward commodity prices may be useful leading indicators of future currency movements, the price risk management strategies may need to be recalibrated over time.

In this paper we analyze the constant and time-varying influence of currency movements on the value of Australian firms listed on the S&P/ASX 100 index for a period from 1980 to 2010 using daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly returns. Whilst the constant exposure model provides only weak evidence over the full sample period the time-varying exposure analysis reveals that most firms are exposed to currency movements in some periods. The exchange rate exposure of Australian firms is dependent on the appreciation or depreciation trajectory of the Australian dollar and on the sample frequencies used. The positive average FX exposure is consistent with the structure of the Australian economy, the size of the mining sector and the role of the Australian dollar as a commodity currency. Finally, we argue that our findings are fully consistent with financial theory and do not constitute a puzzle.

Brazil is one of the world’s largest base materials exporters, and this paper examines through large time series samples whether the Brazilian Real can be characterized as a commodity currency. The Real/US dollar real exchange rate and a real commodity prices index are found to be non-stationary and not cointegrated, while a risk premium appeared to have a large and statistically significant long term relationship with exchange rate movements. Combined first difference models showed that real exchange rate elasticity to risk premium is twice as large as to commodity prices, although both variables have considerable influence. Some specifications outperformed a random walk model with respect to root mean square forecast errors for many horizons, but the latter still better determined the exchange rate in longer terms.

As Africa continues its decade of rapid economic growth, the continent also faces the risk of becoming more susceptible to financial ‘contagion.’ Capital flows and trade linkages might cause one country’s currency market to influence those of its neighbors. Likewise, shocks to global commodity or asset markets might induce a crisis in one or more countries in the region. This study generates monthly measures of exchange market pressure (EMP) for four individual West African countries, as well as for the WAEMU franc zone, from 2002 to 2012. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methods are then used to test for linkages among them, as well as to analyze the effects of various external price shocks. A number of spillovers are uncovered. More importantly, local connections dominate global ones in the case of stock- and commodity-price declines. Ghana, for example, is shown to be a ‘commodity currency’ when West African commodity prices are included in the VAR, but not when a global index is used.

The haphazard process of maize market liberalization produces conditions for maize to assume a money function in the Tonga-speaking region of Mayindi, Zambia. Drawing on ethnographic data, this article analyzes the ways in which members of polygynous households in Mayindi attempt to navigate the intra-household tensions provoked by the use of a staple food as a form of money. In an effort to reconcile these tensions, co-wives in many polygynous households now distribute maize equally among themselves, regardless of how many people each individual woman is responsible for feeding. I argue that while this form of maize distribution leaves some members of the household food-insecure, it also serves to maintain critical aspects of women's social identities as mothers to their children and members of their matrilineage.

Using Zambia as a case study, this article presents some of the challenges that small resource-dependent economies faced during the commodity boom and the financial crisis. In particular, we invest...

In spite of early skepticism on the merits of floating exchange rate regimes in emerging markets, 8 of the 25 largest countries in this group have now had a floating exchange rate regime for more than a decade. Using parsimonious VAR specifications covering the period of floating exchange rates, this study computes the dynamics of exchange rate pass-throughs to consumer price indices. We find that pass-throughs have typically been moderate even though emerging floaters have seen considerable nominal and real exchange rate volatilities. Previous studies that set out to estimate exchange rate pass-throughs ignored changes in policy regimes, making them vulnerable to the Lucas critique. We find that, within the group of emerging floaters, estimated pass-throughs are higher for countries with greater nominal exchange rate volatilities and that trade more homogeneous goods. These findings are consistent with the pass-through model of Floden and Wilander (2006) and earlier findings by Campa and Goldberg (2005), respectively. Furthermore, we find that the Indonesian Rupiah, the Thai Baht and possibly the Mexican Peso are commodity currencies, in the sense that their real exchange rates are cointegrated with international commodity prices.

The main purpose of this paper is to consider the effect of real exchange rate volatility on equity investment by Australian investors. Equity investment is of major importance to savers and investors in Australia. Also real exchange rate volatility is an important influence on Australia’s financial integration in the global economy. Analysis of the effect of real exchange rate volatility on Australia’s equity home bias is important since Australian dollar is a commodity currency. There is a close relationship between Australia’s terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility. Home bias is measured on the basis of free float-adjusted market capitalization in recognition of the fact that closely held shares are not available to ordinary investors. Real exchange rate volatility is measured by deviations from purchasing power parity on a bilateral basis between Australia and 35 countries. The cross-border equity investment data over the period 2001–2007 are from International Monetary Fund’s Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey. Australian investors are found to invest significantly less in a country if the real exchange rate volatility of that country is relatively high (results that are robust to standard control measures and generalized method of moments).

This paper examines the relation between the Canadian dollar / US dollar (CAD) exchange rate and foreign exchange order flow employing a novel data set on CAD order flow over the period 1994-2005. We investigate empirically the predictive information content and the determinants of order flow. The results suggest that order flow has strong out-of-sample predictive power for CAD returns, yielding significant market timing ability and tangible economic gains in a stylized dynamic asset allocation context. In terms of its determinants, order flow appears to reflect not only the menu of macroeconomic variables typically suggested in the literature but is also closely related to commodity price fluctuations, as expected from a 'commodity currency.'

In 2001 the South African rand depreciated suddenly and steeply against the dollar and euro. This triggered inflation as the prices of imported products gapped upward. To offset the imminent inflationary effects and attract foreign exchange, the Reserve Bank raised interest rates, resulting in slower domestic growth. The critical question was the cause of the currency depreciation. We argue here that the rand's decline was the result of a concatenation of internal and external factors, specifically the way the operations of the global financial markets magnified and exacerbated the effects of internal financial policy decisions. The article illustrates the heightening connectivity between domestic policy decisions aimed at regulating the national economy and the globalizing financial markets that operate on an altogether different logic. The Reserve Bank's attempt to regulate the local foreign exchange regime in concert with the corporate use of financial instruments to circumvent these exchange ...

This paper is an econometric investigation of the determinants of the real value of the South African rand over the period 1984-2007. The results show a relatively good fit. As always with exchange rate equations, there is substantial weight on the lagged exchange rate, which can be attributed to a momentum component. Nevertheless, economic fundamentals are significant and important. This is especially true of an index of the real prices of South African mineral commodities, which even drives out real income as a significant determinant. An implication is that the 2003-2006 real appreciation of the rand can be attributed to the Dutch Disease. In other respects, the rand behaves like currencies of industrialised countries with well-developed financial markets. In particular, high South African interest rates raise international demand for the rand and lead to real appreciation, controlling also for a forward-looking measure of expected inflation and a measure of default risk or country risk.