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Regulatory standards are already on the books at the the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to address health risks posed by inhaling tiny particles from smoke, vehicle exhaust, and other sources. At the same time, Congress and EPA have initiated a multimillion dollar research effort to better understand the sources of these airborne particles, the levels of exposure to people, and the ways that these particles cause damage. To provide independent guidance to the EPA, Congress asked the National Research Council to study the relevant issues. The result is a series of four reports on the particulate-matter research program. The first two books offered a conceptual framework for a national research program, identified the 10 most critical research needs, and described the recommended timing and estimated costs of such research. This, the third volume, begins the task of assessing the progress made in implementing the research program. The National Research Council ultimately concludes that the ongoing program is appropriately addressing many of the key uncertainties. However, it also identifies a number of critical specific subjects that should be given greater attention. Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter focuses on the most current and planned research projects with an eye toward the fourth and final report, which will contain an updated assessment.

Although the ocean-and the resources within-seem limitless, there is clear evidence that human impacts such as overfishing, habitat destruction, and pollution disrupt marine ecosystems and threaten the long-term productivity of the seas. Declining yields in many fisheries and decay of treasured marine habitats, such as coral reefs, has heightened interest in establishing a comprehensive system of marine protected areas (MPAs)-areas designated for special protection to enhance the management of marine resources. Therefore, there is an urgent need to evaluate how MPAs can be employed in the United States and internationally as tools to support specific conservation needs of marine and coastal waters. Marine Protected Areas compares conventional management of marine resources with proposals to augment these management strategies with a system of protected areas. The volume argues that implementation of MPAs should be incremental and adaptive, through the design of areas not only to conserve resources, but also to help us learn how to manage marine species more effectively.

Information derived from climate modeling has become increasingly important in recent years. More and more we understand that climate variability and change impacts society and that dealing with climate-related disasters, conflicts, and opportunities requires the best possible information about the past, present, and future of the climate system. To this end, Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling describes ways to improve the efficacy of the U.S. climate modeling enterprise, given the current needs and resources. It discusses enhanced and stable resources for modeling activities, focused and centralized operational activities, how to give researchers access to the best computing facilities, the creation of a common modeling and data infrastructure, and research studies on the socioeconomic aspects of climate and climate modeling.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has adapted to the changing political, economic, and technical state of the nation and the world since it was established in the late nineteenth century. Over a period of more than 120 years, the USGS has evolved from a small group of scientists who collected data and provided guidance on how to parcel, manage, and use the public lands of the West to an agency comprised of thousands of scientists who conduct research and assessment activities on complex scientific issues at scales ranging from the local to the global. The USGS will no doubt continue to evolve and adapt to meet changing national needs. In fact, the recent integration of the National Biological Service and parts of the U.S. Bureau of Mines into the USGS presents an ideal opportunity to examine the agency's vision, mission, role, and scientific opportunities as the organization begins the early years of the twenty-first century. The USGS recognized the need to adapt to changing demands when it asked the National Research Council (NRC) to undertake this study. The NRC formed a multidisciplinary committee of 16 experts to address issues related to the future roles, challenges, and opportunities of the agency.

Fluid flow and solute transport within the vadose zone, the unsaturated zone between the land surface and the water table, can be the cause of expanded plumes arising from localized contaminant sources. An understanding of vadose zone processes is, therefore, an essential prerequisite for cost-effective contaminant remediation efforts. In addition, because such features are potential avenues for rapid transport of chemicals from contamination sources to the water table, the presence of fractures and other channel-like openings in the vadose zone poses a particularly significant problem, Conceptual Models of Flow and Transport in the Fractured Vadose Zone is based on the work of a panel established under the auspices of the U.S. National Committee for Rock Mechanics. It emphasizes the importance of conceptual models and goes on to review the conceptual model development, testing, and refinement processes. The book examines fluid flow and transport mechanisms, noting the difficulty of modeling solute transport, and identifies geochemical and environmental tracer data as important components of the modeling process. Finally, the book recommends several areas for continued research.

Basic Research Opportunities in Earth Science identifies areas of high-priority research within the purview of the Earth Science Division of the National Science Foundation, assesses cross-disciplinary connections, and discusses the linkages between basic research and societal needs. Opportunities in Earth science have been opened up by major improvements in techniques for reading the geological record of terrestrial change, capabilities for observing active processes in the present-day Earth, and computational technologies for realistic simulations of dynamic geosystems. This book examines six specific areas in which the opportunities for basic research are especially compelling, including integrative studies of the near-surface environment (the'Critical Zone'); geobiology; Earth and planetary materials; investigations of the continents; studies of Earth's deep interior; and planetary science. It concludes with a discussion of mechanisms for exploiting these research opportunities, including EarthScope, natural laboratories, and partnerships.

This book describes the development of ocean sciences over the past 50 years, highlighting the contributions of the National Science Foundation (NSF) to the field's progress. Many of the individuals who participated in the exciting discoveries in biological oceanography, chemical oceanography, physical oceanography, and marine geology and geophysics describe in the book how the discoveries were made possible by combinations of insightful individuals, new technology, and in some cases, serendipity. In addition to describing the advance of ocean science, the book examines the institutional structures and technology that made the advances possible and presents visions of the field's future. This book is the first-ever documentation of the history of NSF's Division of Ocean Sciences, how the structure of the division evolved to its present form, and the individuals who have been responsible for ocean sciences at NSF as'rotators'and career staff over the past 50 years.

Sound has become a major tool for studying the ocean. Although the ocean is relatively opaque to light, it is relatively transparent to sound. Sound having frequencies below 1,000 Hertz (Hz) is often defined as low-frequency sound. The speed of sound is proportional to the temperature of the water through which it passes. Therefore, sound speed can be used to infer the average temperature of the water volume through which sound waves have passed. The relationship between water temperature and the speed of sound is the basis for the Acoustic Thermometry of Ocean Climate (ATOC) experiment. The ATOC experiment is designed to monitor the travel time of sound between sources off the coasts of Hawaii and California and several receivers around the Pacific Ocean in order to detect trends in ocean temperature and for other research and monitoring purposes. Some whales, seals, and fish use low-frequency sound to communicate and to sense their environments. For example, baleen whales and some toothed whales are known to use and respond to low-frequency sound emitted by other individuals of their species. Sharks are not known to produce low-frequency sound but are attracted to pulsed low-frequency sounds. Therefore, it is possible that human-generated low-frequency sound could interfere with the natural behavior of whales, sharks, and some other marine animals. Marine Mammals and Low-Frequency Sound is an updated review of the National Research Council 1994 report Low-Frequency Sound and Marine Mammals: Current Knowledge and Research Needs, based on data obtained from the MMRP and results of any other relevant research, including ONR's research program in low-frequency sound and marine mammals. This report compares new data with the research needs specified in the 1994 NRC report, focusing on the strengths and weaknesses of the data for answering important outstanding questions about marine mammal responses to low-frequency sound and identifies areas where gaps in our knowledge continue to exist.

Just below our feet is an environment that supports our infrastructure, yields water, provides for agriculture, and receives our waste. Our capacity to describe, or characterize, this environment is crucial to the solution of many resource, environmental, and engineering problems. And just as medical imaging technologies have reduced the need for exploratory surgeries, a variety of technologies hold the promise for rapid, relatively inexpensive noninvasive characterization of the Earth's subsurface. Seeing into the Earth examines why noninvasive characterization is important and how improved methods can be developed and disseminated. Looking at the issues from both the commercial and public perspectives, the volume makes recommendations for linking characterization and cost savings, closing the gap between the state of science and the state of the practice, and helping practitioners make the best use of the best methods. The book provides background on: The role of noninvasive subsurface characterization in contaminant cleanup, resource management, civil engineering, and other areas. The physical, chemical, biological, and geological properties that are characterized. Methods of characterization and prospects for technological improvement. Certain to be important for earth scientists and engineers alike, this book is also accessible to interested lay readers.

The National Research Council convened a committee of experts to advise the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) on the operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a geologic repository for disposal of defense transuranic (TRU) waste near Carlsbad, New Mexico. The committee was asked to provide recommendations on the following two issues: (1) a research agenda to enhance confidence in the long-term performance of WIPP; and (2) increasing the throughput, efficiency, and cost-benefit without compromising safety of the National TRU Program for characterizing, certifying, packaging, and shipping waste to WIPP. The committee has written this interim report to provide DOE with recommendations on several issues that the committee believes merit immediate consideration and action. In developing this report, the committee has been guided by the principle of'reasonableness'with respect to risks, costs, and the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) principle. In the committee's judgment, implementing the recommendations contained in this report will contribute to the continued safe operation of WIPP.

This workshop report examines the capability of the forecast system to efficiently transfer weather and climate research findings into improved operational forecast capabilities. It looks in particular at the Environmental Modeling Center of the National Weather Service and environmental observational satellite programs. Using these examples, the report identifies several shortcomings in the capability to transition from research to operations. Successful transitions from R&D to operational implementation requires (1) understanding of the importance (and risks) of the transition, (2) development and maintenance of appropriate transition plans, (3) adequate resource provision, and (4) continuous feedback (in both directions) between the R&D and operational activities.

The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) employs many fishery scientists with diverse skills. The agency finds that the supply of fishery biologists is adequate to meet most of its demand. However, increasing demands on the agency to understand fish populations and the social and economic conditions in fishing communities have created a need for additional experts in the fields of fisheries stock assessment and social sciences. NMFS has developed plans for meeting its anticipated staff needs in stock assessment and social sciences and asked the National Research Council (NRC) to convene a workshop to discuss the plans and suggest other actions the agency might take to ensure an adequate supply of experts in these fields. Approximately 30 individuals gathered in Woods Hole, Massachusetts on July 17, 2000 under the auspices of the NRC's Ocean Studies Board to discuss NMFS'plans. This document summarizes the presentations and discussions at that one-day workshop. No attempt was made to reach consensus among the participants; thus, the suggestions recorded in this summary represent the personal views of workshop participants, as summarized by NRC staff.

In 1997, New York City adopted a mammoth watershed agreement to protect its drinking water and avoid filtration of its large upstate surface water supply. Shortly thereafter, the NRC began an analysis of the agreement's scientific validity. The resulting book finds New York City's watershed agreement to be a good template for proactive watershed management that, if properly implemented, will maintain high water quality. However, it cautions that the agreement is not a guarantee of permanent filtration avoidance because of changing regulations, uncertainties regarding pollution sources, advances in treatment technologies, and natural variations in watershed conditions. The book recommends that New York City place its highest priority on pathogenic microorganisms in the watershed and direct its resources toward improving methods for detecting pathogens, understanding pathogen transport and fate, and demonstrating that best management practices will remove pathogens. Other recommendations, which are broadly applicable to surface water supplies across the country, target buffer zones, stormwater management, water quality monitoring, and effluent trading.

Environmental information is important for successful planning and execution of naval operations. A thorough understanding of environmental variability greatly increases the likelihood of mission success. To ensure that naval forces have the most up-to-date capabilities, the Office of Naval Research (ONR) has an extensive environmental research program. This research, to be of greatest use to the warfighter, needs to be directed towards assisting and solving battlefield problems. To increase research community understanding of the operational demands placed on naval operators and to facilitate discussion between these two groups, the National Research Council's (NRC) Ocean Studies Board (OSB), working with ONR and the Office of the Oceanographer of the Navy, convened five previous symposia on tactical oceanography. Oceanography and Mine Warfare examines the following issues: (1) how environmental data are used in current mine warfare doctrine, (2) current procedures for in situ collection of data, (3) the present capabilities of the Navy's oceanographic community to provide supporting information for mine warfare operations, and (4) the ability of oceanographic research and technology developments to enhance current mine warfare capabilities. This report primarily concentrates on the importance of oceanographic data for mine countermeasures.

A major objective of the International Space Station is learning how to cope with the inherent risks of human spaceflight—how to live and work in space for extended periods. The construction of the station itself provides the first opportunity for doing so. Prominent among the challenges associated with ISS construction is the large amount of time that astronauts will be spending doing extravehicular activity (EVA), or'space walks.'EVAs from the space shuttle have been extraordinarily successful, most notably the on-orbit repair of the Hubble Space Telescope. But the number of hours of EVA for ISS construction exceeds that of the Hubble repair mission by orders of magnitude. Furthermore, the ISS orbit has nearly twice the inclination to Earth's equator as Hubble's orbit, so it spends part of every 90-minute circumnavigation at high latitudes, where Earth's magnetic field is less effective at shielding impinging radiation. This means that astronauts sweeping through these regions will be considerably more vulnerable to dangerous doses of energetic particles from a sudden solar eruption. Radiation and the International Space Station estimates that the likelihood of having a potentially dangerous solar event during an EVA is indeed very high. This report recommends steps that can be taken immediately, and over the next several years, to provide adequate warning so that the astronauts can be directed to take protective cover inside the ISS or shuttle. The near-term actions include programmatic and operational ways to take advantage of the multiagency assets that currently monitor and forecast space weather, and ways to improve the in situ measurements and the predictive power of current models.

In the past decade, officials responsible for clean-up of contaminated groundwater have increasingly turned to natural attenuation-essentially allowing naturally occurring processes to reduce the toxic potential of contaminants-versus engineered solutions. This saves both money and headaches. To the people in surrounding communities, though, it can appear that clean-up officials are simply walking away from contaminated sites. When is natural attenuation the appropriate approach to a clean-up? This book presents the consensus of a diverse committee, informed by the views of researchers, regulators, and community activists. The committee reviews the likely effectiveness of natural attenuation with different classes of contaminants-and describes how to evaluate the'footprints'of natural attenuation at a site to determine whether natural processes will provide adequate clean-up. Included are recommendations for regulatory change. The committee emphasizes the importance of the public's belief and attitudes toward remediation and provides guidance on involving community stakeholders throughout the clean-up process. The book explores how contamination occurs, explaining concepts and terms, and includes case studies from the Hanford nuclear site, military bases, as well as other sites. It provides historical background and important data on clean-up processes and goes on to offer critical reviews of 14 published protocols for evaluating natural attenuation.

Environmental problems in coastal ecosystems can sometimes be attributed to excess nutrients flowing from upstream watersheds into estuarine settings. This nutrient over-enrichment can result in toxic algal blooms, shellfish poisoning, coral reef destruction, and other harmful outcomes. All U.S. coasts show signs of nutrient over-enrichment, and scientists predict worsening problems in the years ahead. Clean Coastal Waters explains technical aspects of nutrient over-enrichment and proposes both immediate local action by coastal managers and a longer-term national strategy incorporating policy design, classification of affected sites, law and regulation, coordination, and communication. Highlighting the Gulf of Mexico's'Dead Zone,'the Pfiesteria outbreak in a tributary of Chesapeake Bay, and other cases, the book explains how nutrients work in the environment, why nitrogen is important, how enrichment turns into over-enrichment, and why some environments are especially susceptible. Economic as well as ecological impacts are examined. In addressing abatement strategies, the committee discusses the importance of monitoring sites, developing useful models of over-enrichment, and setting water quality goals. The book also reviews voluntary programs, mandatory controls, tax incentives, and other policy options for reducing the flow of nutrients from agricultural operations and other sources.

As appreciation of the interdisciplinary and multidimensional character of environmental issues has increased, there have been attempts to address regional needs more directly. One of these, the Regional Marine Research Program (RMRP), was established by Congress in 1990 to provide a mechanism to fund coastal marine research based on regionally-defined priorities. The RMRP legislation established a system of nine regional marine research boards around the United States. Each board was responsible for planning marine research to address issues of water quality and ecosystem health on a regional scale. Although all nine regions received funding for planning activities and development of a research plan, only the Gulf of Maine RMRP received funding for program implementation. The completion of the Gulf of Maine program, in 1997, presents an opportunity to evaluate whether the process for planning and managing the Gulf of Maine research was adequate, whether the research fulfilled the goals of the program, and whether this experience should serve as a model for similar regional programs elsewhere. Bridging Boundaries through Regional Marine Research is a study of the RMRP, with a specific review of the Gulf of Maine program as well as an assessment of other modesl for regional marine research. This report assesses the need for regional marine research,reviews processes by which regional marine research needs can be defined, and discusses existing programs for regional marine research in the United States. It also identifies short- and long-term approaches that might be taken by NOAA.

The United States has more than 65 active or potentially active volcanoes, more than those of all other countries except Indonesia and Japan. During the twentieth century, volcanic eruptions in Alaska, California, Hawaii, and Washington devastated thousands of square kilometers of land, caused substantial economic and societal disruption and, in some instances, loss of life. More than 50 U.S. volcanoes have erupted one or more times in the past 200 years. Recently, there have been major advances in our understanding of how volcanoes work. This is partly because of detailed studies of eruptions and partly because of advances in global communications, remote sensing, and interdisciplinary cooperation. The mission of the Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) is to'lessen the harmful impacts of volcanic activity by monitoring active and potentially active volcanoes, assessing their hazards, responding to volcanic crises, and conducting research on how volcanoes work.'To provide a fresh perspective and guidance to the VHP about the future of the program, the Geologic and Water Resources Divisions of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) requested that the National Research Council conduct an independent and comprehensive review. Review of the U. S. Geological Survey's Volcano Hazards Program is organized around the three components of hazards mitigation. Chapter 2 deals with research and hazard assessment. Chapter 3 covers monitoring and Chapter 4 discusses crisis response and other forms of outreach conducted by the VHP. Chapter 5 describes various cross-cutting programmatic issues such as staffing levels, data formats, and partnerships. Chapter 6 offers a vision for the future of the Volcano Hazards Program, and Chapter 7 summarizes the conclusions and recommendations of the preceding chapters. Throughout the report, major conclusions are printed in italics and recommendations in bold type. The committee has written this report for several different audiences. The main audience is upper management within the USGS and the VHP. However, the committee believes that scientists within the VHP will also find the report valuable. The report is written in such a manner as to be useful to congressional staff as well.

The Mobile Source Emissions Factor (MOBILE) model is a computer model developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for estimating emissions from on-road motor vehicles. MOBILE is used in air-quality planning and regulation for estimating emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) and for predicting the effects of emissions-reduction programs. Because of its important role in air-quality management, the accuracy of MOBILE is critical. Possible consequences of inaccurately characterizing motor-vehicle emissions include the implementation of insufficient controls that endanger the environment and public health or the implementation of ineffective policies that impose excessive control costs. Billions of dollars per year in transportation funding are linked to air-quality attainment plans, which rely on estimates of mobile-source emissions. Transportation infrastructure decisions are also affected by emissions estimates from MOBILE. In response to a request from Congress, the National Research Council established the Committee to Review EPA's Mobile Source Emissions Factor (MOBILE) Model in October 1998. The committee was charged to evaluate MOBILE and to develop recommendations for improving the model.

An overall increase in global-mean atmospheric temperatures is predicted to occur in response to human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping'greenhouse gases.'The most prominent of these gases, carbon dioxide, has increased in concentration by over 30% during the past 200 years, and is expected to continue to increase well into the future. Other changes in atmospheric composition complicate the picture. In particular, increases in the number of small particles (called aerosols) in the atmosphere regionally offset and mask the greenhouse effect, and stratospheric ozone depletion contributes to cooling of the upper troposphere and stratosphere. Many in the scientific community believe that a distinctive greenhouse-warming signature is evident in surface temperature data for the past few decades. Some, however, are puzzled by the fact that satellite temperature measurements indicate little, if any, warming of the lower to mid-troposphere (the layer extending from the surface up to about 8 km) since such satellite observations first became operational in 1979. The satellite measurements appear to be substantiated by independent trend estimates for this period based on radiosonde data. Some have interpreted this apparent discrepancy between surface and upper air observations as casting doubt on the overall reliability of the surface temperature record, whereas others have concluded that the satellite data (or the algorithms that are being used to convert them into temperatures) must be erroneous. It is also conceivable that temperatures at the earth's surface and aloft have not tracked each other perfectly because they have responded differently to natural and/or human-induced climate forcing during this particular 20-year period. Whether these differing temperature trends can be reconciled has implications for assessing: how much the earth has warmed during the past few decades, whether observed changes are in accord with the predicted response to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere based on model simulations, and whether the existing atmospheric observing system is adequate for the purposes of monitoring global-mean temperature. This report reassesses the apparent differences between the temperature changes recorded by satellites and the surface thermometer network on the basis of the latest available information. It also offers an informed opinion as to how the different temperature records should be interpreted, and recommends actions designed to reduce the remaining uncertainties in these measurements.

Environmental indicators, such as global temperatures and pollutant concentrations, attract scientists'attention and often make the headlines. Equally important to policymaking are indicators of the ecological processes and conditions that yield food, fiber, building materials and ecological'services'such as water purification and recreation. This book identifies ecological indicators that can support U.S. policymaking and also be adapted to decisions at the regional and local levels. The committee describes indicators of land cover and productivity, species diversity, and other key ecological processes—explaining why each indicator is useful, what models support the indicator, what the measured values will mean, how the relevant data are gathered, how data collection might be improved, and what effects emerging technologies are likely to have on the measurements. The committee reviews how it arrived at its recommendations and explores how the indicators can contribute to policymaking. Also included are interesting details on paleoecology, satellite imagery, species diversity, and other aspects of ecological assessment. Federal, state, and local decision-makers, as well as environmental scientists and practitioners, will be especially interested in this new book.

Groundwater is a basic resource for humans and natural ecosystems and is one of the nation's most important natural resources. Groundwater is pumped from wells to supply drinking water to about 130 million U.S. residents and is used in all 50 states. About 40 percent of the nation's public water supply and much of the water used for irrigation is provided by groundwater. Despite the importance of groundwater as one of our most precious natural resources, an organized, effective program to provide an ongoing assessment of the nation's groundwater resources does not exist. With encouragement from the U.S. Congress, the USGS is planning for a new program of regional and national scale assessment of U.S. groundwater resources, thus helping bring new order to its various groundwater resources-related activities. The Survey's senior scientists requested advice in regard to the design of such a program. In response, the committee undertook this study in support of developing an improved program relevant to regional and national assessment of groundwater resources. This report is a product of the Committee on USGS Water Resources Research, which provides consensus advice on scientific, research, and programmatic issues to the Water Resources Division (WRD) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The committee is one of the groups that work under the auspices of the Water Science and Technology Board of the National Research Council (NRC). The committee considers a variety of topics that are important scientifically and programmatically to the USGS and the nation, and it issues reports when appropriate. This report concerns the work of the WRD in science and technology relevant to assessments of groundwater resources on regional and national scales. The USGS has been conducting scientific activity relevant to groundwater resources for over 100 years and, as summarized in Appendix A, today groundwater-related work occurs throughout the WRD.

It is now becoming clear that relatively few U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) waste sites will be cleaned up to the point where they can be released for unrestricted use.'Long-term stewardship'(activities to protect human health and the environment from hazards that may remain at its sites after cessation of remediation) will be required for over 100 of the 144 waste sites under DOE control (U.S. Department of Energy, 1999). After stabilizing wastes that remain on site and containing them as well as is feasible, DOE intends to rely on stewardship for as long as hazards persist—in many cases, indefinitely. Physical containment barriers, the management systems upon which their long-term reliability depends, and institutional controls intended to prevent exposure of people and the environment to the remaining site hazards, will have to be maintained at some DOE sites for an indefinite period of time. The Committee on Remediation of Buried and Tank Wastes finds that much regarding DOE's intended reliance on long-term stewardship is at this point problematic. The details of long-term stewardship planning are yet to be specified, the adequacy of funding is not assured, and there is no convincing evidence that institutional controls and other stewardship measures are reliable over the long term. Scientific understanding of the factors that govern the long-term behavior of residual contaminants in the environment is not adequate. Yet, the likelihood that institutional management measures will fail at some point is relatively high, underscoring the need to assure that decisions made in the near term are based on the best available science. Improving institutional capabilities can be expected to be every bit as difficult as improving scientific and technical ones, but without improved understanding of why and how institutions succeed and fail, the follow-through necessary to assure that long-term stewardship remains effective cannot reliably be counted on to occur. Long-Term Institutional Management of U.S. Department of Energy Legacy Waste Sites examines the capabilities and limitations of the scientific, technical, and human and institutional systems that compose the measures that DOE expects to put into place at potentially hazardous, residually contaminated sites.

The availability of fresh water is potentially one of the most pervasive crises of the coming century. Water-related decisions will determine the future of major ecosystems, the health of regional economies, and the political stability of nations. A vigorous program of research in hydrologic sciences can provide the basis for sound water management at local, regional, national, and international levels. The Committee on Hydrologic Science was established by the National Research Council in 1999 to identify priorities for hydrologic science that will ensure its vitality as a scientific discipline in service of societal needs. This charge will be performed principally through a series of studies that provide scientific advice on the hydrologic aspects of national program and U.S. hydrologic contributions to international programs. This first report contains a preliminary assessment of the hydrologic science content of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). Because this is a short and focused report, little effort is spent to reaffirm the established and successful elements of the USGCRP. In fact, the Committee generally endorses the findings of the National Research Council (NRC) report Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade (NRC, 1998a; the so-called Pathways report) in this respect. Instead the attention here is directed toward the most critical missing hydrologic science elements in the FY2000 USGCRP. This brings the focus to the terrestrial component of the water cycle. The integrative nature of terrestrial hydrology could significantly strengthen the USGCRP.

Losses of life and property from natural disasters in the United States-and throughout the world-have been enormous and the potential for substantially greater future losses looms. It is clearly in the public interest to reduce these impacts and to encourage the development of communities that are resilient to disasters. This goal can be achieved through wise and sustained efforts involving mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Implementing such efforts, particularly in the face of limited resources and competing priorities, requires accurate information that is presented in a timely and appropriate manner to facilitate informed decisions. Substantial information already exists that could be used to this end, but there are numerous obstacles to accessing this information, and methods for integrating information from a variety of sources for decision-making are presently inadequate. Implementation of an improved national or international network for making better information available in a more timely manner could substantially improve the situation. As noted in the Preface, a federal transition team is considering the issues and needs associated with implementing a global or national disaster information network as described in the report by the Disaster Information Task Force (1997). This National Research Council report was commissioned by the transition team to provide advice on how a disaster information network could best make information available to improve decision making, with the ultimate goal of reducing losses from natural disasters. The report is intended to provide the basis for a better appreciation of which types of data and information should be generated in an information program and how this information could best be disseminated to decision makers.

During the next several years, decisions are expected to be made in several countries on the further development and implementation of the geological disposition option. The Board on Radioactive Waste Management (BRWM) of the U.S. National Academies believes that informed and reasoned discussion of relevant scientific, engineering and social issues can—and should—play a constructive role in the decision process by providing information to decision makers on relevant technical and policy issues. A BRWM-initiated project including a workshop at Irvine, California on November 4-5, 1999, and subsequent National Academies'report to be published in spring, 2000, are intended to provide such information to national policy makers both in the U.S. and abroad. To inform national policies, it is essential that experts from the physical, geological, and engineering sciences, and experts from the policy and social science communities work together. Some national programs have involved social science and policy experts from the beginning, while other programs have only recently recognized the importance of this collaboration. An important goal of the November workshop is to facilitate dialogue between these communities, as well as to encourage the sharing of experiences from many national programs. The workshop steering committee has prepared this discussion for participants at the workshop. It should elicit critical comments and help identify topics requiring in-depth discussion at the workshop. It is not intended as a statement of findings, conclusions, or recommendations. It is rather intended as a vehicle for stimulating dialogue among the workshop participants. Out of that dialogue will emerge the findings, conclusions, and recommendations of the National Academies'report.

In the effort to reduce the scientific and technical uncertainties over regulation of airborne particulate matter in the United States, Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: II. Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio, the second book in a four-part series requested by Congress, describes the plans of the committee to monitor the progress of the research on particulate matter conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), other federal and state government agencies, and nongovernmental organizations. The book also reviews and updates the committee's portfolio of recommended research in its first volume, Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I. Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio (NRC, 1998). The committee substantially revised two of the ten high-priority research areas recommended in Part I. Part II notes that Congress, EPA, and the scientific community have given strong support to the committee's recommendations and have implemented substantial changes in research efforts in response to Part I of the series. One important research area-studies of the effects of long-term exposure to particulate matter and other major air pollutants-however, does not appear to be underway or planned.

Appendices C-D contain biographical sketches of the committee members and the technical experts.

The NRC Panel on the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation (PAEAN) was established to provide guidance to NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Program (AEAP) by evaluating the appropriateness of the program's research plan, appraising the project-sponsored results relative to the current state of scientific knowledge, identifying key scientific uncertainties, and suggesting research activities likely to reduce those uncertainties. Over the last few years, the panel has written periodic reviews of both the subsonic aviation (Subsonic Assessment-SASS) and the supersonic aviation (Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft-AESA) components of AEAP, including: An Interim Review of the Subsonic Assessment Project (1997); An Interim Assessment of AEAP's Emissions Characterization and Near-Field Interactions Elements (1997); An Interim Review of the AESA Project: Science and Progress (1998); Atmospheric Effects of Aviation: A Review of NASA's Subsonic Assessment Project (1998). This report constitutes the final review of AESA and will be the last report written by this panel. The primary audience for these reports is the program managers and scientists affiliated with AEAP, although in some cases the topics discussed are of interest to a wider audience.

Losses of life and property in the United States—and throughout the world—resulting from hydrologic hazards, including floods, droughts, and related phenomena, are significant and increasing. Public awareness of, and federal attention to, natural disaster reduction, with a focus on mitigation or preparedness so as to minimize the impacts of such events, have probably never been greater than at present. With over three-quarters of federal disaster declarations resulting from water-related events, national interest in having the best-possible hydrologic data, information, and knowledge as the basis for assessment and reduction of risks from hydrologic hazards is clear. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) plays a variety of unique and critical roles relevant to hydrologic hazard understanding, preparedness, and response. The agency's data collection, research, techniques development, and interpretive studies provide the essential bases for national, state, and local hydrologic hazard risk assessment and reduction efforts. This work includes some of the more traditional activities of the Water Resources Division (e.g., streamflow measurement) and some of the more innovative interdisciplinary activities (e.g., hydrologic research, educational outreach, real-time data transmission, and risk communication) being pursued in cooperation with other divisions of the USGS, other federal and state agencies, and other local entities. This report aims to help shape a strategy and improve the overall framework of USGS efforts in these important areas.

The provision of safe drinking water has been an important factor in the improvement of the health status of U.S. communities since the turn of the last century. Nonetheless, outbreaks of waterborne disease and incidences of chemical contamination of drinking water continue to occur. Setting Priorities for Drinking Water Contaminants recommends a new process for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to use in deciding which potential drinking water contaminants should be regulated in public water supplies to provide the greatest protection against waterborne illnesses. The book covers chemical and microbiological contaminants and includes a historical review of past approaches to setting priorities for drinking water contaminants and other environmental pollutants. It emphasizes the need for expert judgment in this process and for a conservative approach that considers public health protection as the first priority.

This study was undertaken in recognition of the critical role played by the Energy Resources Program (ERP) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in the energy future of the United States. The ERP performs fundamental research to understand the origin and recoverability of fossil energy resources and conducts assessments of their future availability. The ERP also provides information and expertise on environmental effects.

This book reviews the performance and effectiveness of the Community Development Quotas (CDQ) programs that were formed as a result of the Sustainable Fisheries Act of 1996. The CDQ program is a method of allocating access to fisheries to eligible communities with the intent of promoting local social and economic conditions through participation in fishing-related activities. The book looks at those Alaskan fisheries that have experience with CDQs, such as halibut, pollock, sablefish, and crab, and comments on the extent to which the programs have met their objectives—helping communities develop ongoing commercial fishing and processing activities, creating employment opportunities, and providing capital for investment in fishing, processing, and support projects such as infrastructure. It also considers how CDQ-type programs might apply in the Western Pacific.

Most U.S. fish stocks are fully or over-exploited, and harvesting in many fisheries far exceeds sustainable levels. The individual fishing quota (IFQ) is a relatively new instrument under which harvesting privileges are allocated to individual fishermen—innovative yet controversial for its feared effect on fishing communities and individual fishermen. Based on testimony from fishermen, regulators, environmentalists, and others, Sharing the Fish explores how IFQs might address the serious social, economic, and biologic issues raised by depleted fish stocks. In their approach to a national policy on IFQs, the panel makes direct recommendations to Congress, the Secretary of Commerce, the National Marine Fisheries Service, regional fishery management councils, state authorities, and others. This book provides definitions and examples, reviews legislation and regulations, and includes lessons learned from fisheries on the U.S. East Coast and in Alaska, and in Iceland, New Zealand, and other nations. The committee discusses the public trust doctrine, management of common-pool resources, alternative and complementary approaches to the IFQ, and more. Sharing the Fish provides straightforward answers that will be important to fishery policymakers and regulators, natural resource economists, fishery managers, environmental advocates, and concerned fishermen and their communities.

The 1997 Conference on the World Climate Research Programme to the Third Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change concluded that the global capacity to observe the Earth's climate system is inadequate and is deteriorating worldwide. As a result, the chair of the subcommittee of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) requested a National Research Council study to assess the current status of the climate observing capabilities of the United States. This report focuses on existing observing systems for detection and attribution of climate change, with special emphasis on those systems with long time series.

'Support for this study was provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, under Grant No. DE-FC01-94EW54069'--T.p. verso.

A distributed geolibrary is a vision for the future. It would permit users to quickly and easily obtain all existing information available about a place that is relevant to a defined need. It is modeled on the operations of a traditional library, updated to a digital networked world, and focused on something that has never been possible in the traditional library: the supply of information in response to a geographically defined need. It would integrate the resources of the Internet and the World Wide Web into a simple mechanism for searching and retrieving information relevant to a wide range of problems, including natural disasters, emergencies, community planning, and environmental quality. A geolibrary is a digital library filled with geoinformation-information associated with a distinct area or footprint on the Earth's surface-and for which the primary search mechanism is place. A geolibrary is distributed if its users, services, metadata, and information assets can be integrated among many distinct locations. This report presents the findings of the Workshop on Distributed Geolibraries: Spatial Information Resources, convened by the Mapping Science Committee of the National Research Council in June 1998. The report is a vision for distributed geolibraries, not a blueprint. Developing a distributed geolibrary involves a series of technical challenges as well as institutional and social issues, which are addressed relative to the vision.

The fiscal and technological limitations associated with cleaning up hazardous waste sites to background conditions have prompted responsible parties to turn to risk-based methods for environmental rememdiation. Environmental Cleanup at Navy Facilities reviews and critiques risk-based methods, including those developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the American Society of Testing and Materials. These critiques lead to the identification of eleven criteria that must be part of any risk-based methodology adopted by the Navy, a responsible party with a large number of complex and heavily contaminated waste sites. January

Aviation is an integral part of the global transportation network, and the number of flights worldwide is expected to grow rapidly in the coming decades. Yet, the effects that subsonic aircraft emissions may be having upon atmospheric composition and climate are not fully understood. To study such issues, NASA sponsors the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Program (AEAP). The NRC Panel on Atmospheric Effects of Aviation is charged to evaluate AEAP, and in this report, the panel is focusing on the subsonic assessment (SASS) component of the program. This evaluation of SASS/AEAP was based on the report Atmospheric Effects of Subsonic Aircraft: Interim Assessment Report of the Advanced Sub-sonic Technology Program, on a strategic plan developed by SASS managers, and on other relevant documents.

The Department of Energy's Environmental Management Program (DOEEM) is one of the largest environmental clean up efforts in world history. The EM division charged with developing or finding technologies to accomplish this massive task, its Office of Science and Technology (OST), has been reviewed extensively, including six reports from committees of the National Research Council's (NRC's) Board on Radioactive Waste Management (BRWM) that have been released since December 1998. These committees examined different components of OST's technology development program, including its decision-making and peer review processes and its efforts to develop technologies in the areas of decontamination and decommissioning, waste forms for mixed waste, tank waste, and subsurface contamination. Gerald Boyd, head of OST, asked the Board on Radioactive Waste Management (BRWM) to summarize the major findings and recommendations of the six reports and synthesize any common issues into a number of overarching recommendations.

Building Ocean Science Partnerships describes a set of potential ocean science projects for cooperative research between scientists from the United States and Mexico, particularly focused on the Pacific Coast of California and Baja California, the Gulf of California, and the Gulf of Mexico. Barriers to cooperation between scientists of the two nations are identified, and methods to overcome such barriers are recommended. The book describes how interactions can be promoted by enhancing opportunities for education and training, building and sharing scientific infrastructure, participating together in large-scale marine research programs and regional ocean observing systems, planning joint science events and publications, and developing sources of binational funding. Building Ocean Science Partnerships will be published in English and Spanish to make its contents widely accessible in the United States and Mexico.

The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Panel was asked to assess the value of the NEXRAD data for answering key atmospheric and hydrological science questions (see the tasking letter in the appendix). In response, the panel reviewed the status of WSR-88D data collection, processing, and archival, as well as the accessibility of archived data (with an emphasis on Level II). For this purpose, the panel examined reports by R. Carbone (panel member) and G. Mandt, Director, NWS/Office of Meteorology (OM). It should be noted that, because an emphasis of the present review was in identifying areas for improving the utility of the NEXRAD data, the conclusions and recommendations presented in this report could be taken out of context to suggest that the data in their present form have little utility. On the contrary, the panel concluded that the NEXRAD data are valuable for both their real-time applications in weather forecasting, and their utility for studying atmospheric dynamics in greater detail than was previously possible. At the same time, the panel identified strategies that could significantly improve the utility and value of the data.

Water vapor plays a vital role in shaping weather and climate on Earth. Hence, monitoring water vapor is critical if we are to explain and predict the behavior of the climate system. Unfortunately, measuring and analyzing water vapor on the time and space scales needed for this purpose have proven elusive. Therefore, it is appropriate and timely for the international climate research community, through the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), to focus a project around water vapor. To this end, a GEWEX Global Water Vapor Project (GVaP) has been proposed, and draft Science and Implementation Plans have been developed. As requested by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), the National Research Council's (NRC) GEWEX Panel has reviewed these plans with an eye toward U.S. priorities.

The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Panel of the National Research Council (NRC) was tasked by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) to provide a rapid and succinct assessment to relevant agencies on the general merit of the GEWEX America Prediction Project (GAPP), as well as the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP). In addition, the panel was asked to provide guidance to the agencies on the relationships between the agencies'newly proposed hydrologic research activities, GAPP, and CEOP. Providing this guidance is critical, in part, because the federal agencies tend to have somewhat differing priorities across the wide span of GEWEX activities.

The Committee on Ozone-Forming Potential for Reformulated Gasoline was asked whether the existing body of scientific and technical information is sufficient to permit a robust evaluation and comparison of the emissions from motor vehicles using different reformulated gasolines based on their ozone-forming potentials and to assess the concomitant impact of that approach on air-quality benefits of the use of oxygenates within the RFG program. As part of its charge, the committee was asked to consider (1) the technical soundness of various approaches for evaluating and comparing the relative ozone-forming potentials of RFG blends, (2) technical aspects of various air-quality issues related to RFG assessment, and (3) the sensitivity of evaluations of the relative ozone-forming potentials to factors related to fuel properties and the variability of vehicle technologies and driving patterns.

With an increasing population, use of new and diverse chemicals that can enter the water supply, and emergence of new microbial pathogens, the U.S. federal government is faced with a regulatory dilemma: Where should it focus its attention and limited resources to ensure safe drinking water supplies for the future? Identifying Future Drinking Water Contaminants is based on a 1998 workshop on emerging drinking water contaminants. It includes a dozen papers that were presented on new and emerging microbiological and chemical drinking water contaminants, associated analytical and water treatment methods for their detection and removal, and existing and proposed environmental databases to assist in their proactive identification and regulation. The papers are preceded by a conceptual approach and related recommendations to EPA for the periodic creation of future Drinking Water Contaminant Candidate Lists (CCLs—produced every five years—include currently unregulated chemical and microbiological substances that are known or anticipated to occur in public water systems and that may pose health risks).

Sacramento, California, has grown literally at the edge of the Sacramento and American Rivers and for 150 years has struggled to protect itself from periodic floods by employing structural and land management measures. Much of the population lives behind levees, and most of the city's downtown business and government area is vulnerable to flooding. A major flood in 1986 served as impetus for efforts by federal, state, and local entities to identify an acceptable and feasible set of measures to increase Sacramento's level of safety from American River floods. Numerous options were identified in 1991 by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) in a report known as the American River Watershed Investigation. Due to the controversial nature of many of the alternatives identified in that report, study participants were not able to reach consensus on any of the flood control options. In response, the Congress directed the USACE to reevaluate available flood control options and, at the same time, asked the USACE to engage the National Research Council (NRC) as an independent advisor on these difficult studies. In 1995 NRC's Committee on Flood Control Alternatives in the American River Basin issued Flood Risk Management and the American River Basin: An Evaluation. This report outlined an approach for improving the selection of a flood risk reduction strategy from the many available.

In the three decades since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was created, the agency's scientific and technical practices and credibility have been independently assessed many times in reports from the National Research Council (NRC), EPA Science Advisory Board, General Accounting Office, and many other organizations; in congressional oversight and judicial proceedings; and in countless criticisms and lawsuits from stakeholders with interests in particular EPA regulatory decisions. As a previous independent panel put it in the 1992 report Safeguarding the Future: Credible Science, Credible Decisions, EPA's policy and regulatory work receives a great deal of public attention, but the agency's scientific performance typically receives a similar degree of attention only when the scientific basis for a decision is questioned. Thus, strong scientific performance is important not only to enable EPA to make informed and effective decisions, but also to gain credibility and public support for the environmental protection efforts of EPA and the nation. This report is the fourth and final one in a series prepared by two independent expert committees convened by the NRC in response to a request from Congress and to subsequent, related requests from EPA. The Committee on Research Opportunities and Priorities for EPA—the companion committee in this study—was charged to provide an overview of significant emerging environmental issues, identify and prioritize research themes most relevant to understanding and resolving those issues, and consider the role of EPA's research program in the context of research being conducted or supported by other organizations. That committee published an interim report in 1996 and a final report, Building a Foundation for Sound Environmental Decisions, in 1997. The Committee on Research and Peer Review in EPA was charged to evaluate research management and scientific peer-review practices in the agency. The committee published an interim report in 1995 and this final report.