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The last 12 months have provided further evidence of the potential for cascading ecological and socio-political crises that were warned of 12 months ago. Then a consensus statement from the Regional Action on Climate Change Symposium warned: "the Earth's climatic, ecological, and human systems are converging towards a crisis that threatens to engulf global civilization within the lifetimes of children now living." Since then, the consequences of a broad set of extreme climate events (notably droughts, floods, and fires) have been compounded by interaction with impacts from multiple pandemics (including COVID-19 and cholera) and the Russia-Ukraine war. As a result, new connections are becoming visible between climate change and human health, large vulnerable populations are experiencing food crises, climate refugees are on the move, and the risks of water, food, and climate disruption have been visibly converging and compounding. Many vulnerable populations now face serious challenges to adapt. In light of these trends, this year, RACC identifies a range of measures to be taken at global and regional levels to bolster the resilience of these populations in the face of such emerging crises. In particular, at all scales, there is a need for globally available local data, reliable analytic techniques, community capacity to plan adaptation strategies, and the resources (scientific, technical, cultural, and economic) to implement them. To date, the rate of growth of the support for climate change resilience lags behind the rapid growth of cascading and converging risks. As an urgent message to COP27, it is proposed that the time is now right to devote much greater emphasis, global funding, and support to the increasing adaptation needs of vulnerable populations.

Comparative genomic analysis of Vibrio cholerae El Tor associated with endemic cholera in Asia revealed two distinct lineages, one dominant in Bangladesh and the other in India. An in-depth whole-genome study of V. cholerae El Tor strains isolated during endemic cholera in Bangladesh (1991 to 2017) included reference genome sequence data obtained online. Core genome phylogeny established using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed V. cholerae El Tor strains comprised two lineages, BD-1 and BD-2, which, according to Bayesian phylodynamic analysis, originated from paraphyletic group BD-0 around 1981. BD-1 and BD-2 lineages overlapped temporally but were negatively associated as causative agents of cholera during 2004 to 2017. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) revealed 140 SNPs and 31 indels, resulting in gene alleles unique to BD-1 and BD-2. Regression analysis of root to tip distance and year of isolation indicated early BD-0 strains at the base, whereas BD-1 and BD-2 subsequently emerged and progressed by accumulating SNPs. Pangenome analysis provided evidence of gene acquisition by both BD-1 and BD-2, of which six crucial proteins of known function were predominant in BD-2. BD-1 and BD-2 diverged and have distinctively different genomic traits, namely, heterogeneity in VSP-2, VPI-1, mobile elements, toxin encoding elements, and total gene abundance. In addition, the observed phage-inducible chromosomal island-like element (PLE1), and SXT ICE elements (ICETET) in BD-2 presumably provided a fitness advantage for the lineage to outcompete BD-1 as the etiological agent of endemic cholera in Bangladesh, with implications for global cholera epidemiology. IMPORTANCE Cholera is a global disease with specific reference to the Bay of Bengal Ganges Delta where Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor, the causative agent of the disease showed two circulating lineages, one dominant in Bangladesh and the other in India. Results of an in-depth genomic study of V. cholerae associated with endemic cholera during the past 27 years (1991 to 2017) indicate emergence and succession of the two lineages, BD-1 and BD-2, arising from a common ancestral paraphyletic group, BD-0, comprising the early strains and short-term evolution of the bacterium in Bangladesh. Among the two V. cholerae lineages, BD-2 supersedes BD-1 and is predominant in the most recent endemic cholera in Bangladesh. The BD-2 lineage contained significantly more SNPs and indels, and showed richness in gene abundance, including antimicrobial resistance genes, gene cassettes, and PLE to fight against bacteriophage infection, acquired over time. These findings have important epidemic implications on a global scale.

Periodical cicadas (Hemiptera: Magicicada) have coevolved with obligate bacteriome-inhabiting microbial symbionts, yet little is known about gut microbial symbiont composition or differences in composition among allochronic Magicicada broods (year classes) which emerge parapatrically or allopatrically in the eastern United States. Here, 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing was performed to determine gut bacterial community profiles of three periodical broods, including II (Connecticut and Virginia, 2013), VI (North Carolina, 2017), and X (Maryland, 2021, and an early emerging nymph collected in Ohio, 2017). Results showed similarities among all nymphal gut microbiomes and between morphologically distinct 17-year Magicicada, namely Magicicada septendecim (Broods II and VI) and 17-year Magicicada cassini (Brood X) providing evidence of a core microbiome, distinct from the microbiome of burrow soil inhabited by the nymphs. Generally, phyla Bacteroidetes [Bacteroidota] (> 50% relative abundance), Actinobacteria [Actinomycetota], or Proteobacteria [Pseudomonadota] represented the core. Acidobacteria and genera Cupriavidus, Mesorhizobium, and Delftia were prevalent in nymphs but less frequent in adults. The primary obligate endosymbiont, Sulcia (Bacteroidetes), was dominant amongst core genera detected. Chryseobacterium were common in Broods VI and X. Chitinophaga, Arthrobacter, and Renibacterium were common in Brood X, and Pedobacter were common to nymphs of Broods II and VI. Further taxonomic assignment of unclassified Alphaproteobacteria sequencing reads allowed for detection of multiple copies of the Hodgkinia 16S rRNA gene, distinguishable as separate operational taxonomic units present simultaneously. As major emergences of the broods examined here occur at 17-year intervals, this study will provide a valuable comparative baseline in this era of a changing climate.

Avian pox is a common avian virus that in its cutaneous form can cause characteristic lesions on a bird's dermal surfaces. Detection of avian pox in free-ranging birds historically relied on observations of visual lesions and/or histopathology, both which can underestimate avian pox prevalence. We compared traditional visual observation methods for avian pox with molecular methods that utilize minimally invasive samples (blood, toenail clipping, feathers, and dermal swabs) in an ecologically important group of birds, hummingbirds. Specifically, avian pox prevalence in several species of hummingbirds were examined across multiple locations using three different methods: (1) visual inspection of hummingbirds for pox-like lesions from a long-term banding data set, (2) qPCR assay of samples from hummingbird carcasses from wildlife rehabilitation centers, and (3) qPCR assay of samples from live-caught hummingbirds. A stark difference in prevalences among these three methods was identified, with an avian pox prevalence of 1.5% from banding data, 20.4% from hummingbird carcasses, and 32.5% from live-caught hummingbirds in California. This difference in detection rates underlines the necessity of a molecular method to survey for avian pox, and this study establishes one such method that could be applied to other wild bird species. Across all three methods, Anna's hummingbirds harbored significantly higher avian pox prevalence than other species examined, as did males compared with females and birds caught in Southern California compared with Northern California. After hatch-year hummingbirds also harbored higher avian pox prevalences than hatch-year hummingbirds in the California banding data set and the carcass data set. This is the first study to estimate the prevalence of avian pox in hummingbirds and address the ecology of this hummingbird-specific strain of avian pox virus, providing vital information to inform future studies on this charismatic and ecologically important group of birds.

Correction for “An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics,” by Michael A. Johansson, Karyn M. Apfeldorf, Scott Dobson, Jason Devita, Anna L. Buczak, Benjamin Baugher, Linda J. Moniz, Thomas Bagley, Steven M. Babin, Erhan Guven, Teresa K. Yamana, Jeffrey Shaman, Terry Moschou, Nick Lothian, Aaron Lane, Grant Osborne, Gao Jiang, Logan C. Brooks, David C. Farrow, Sangwon Hyun, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Roni Rosenfeld, Justin Lessler, Nicholas G. Reich, Derek A. T. Cummings, Stephen A. Lauer, Sean M. Moore, Hannah E. Clapham, Rachel Lowe, Trevor C. Bailey, Markel García-Díez, Marilia Sá Carvalho, Xavier Rodó, Tridip Sardar, Richard Paul, Evan L. Ray, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Alexandria C. Brown, Xi Meng, Osonde Osoba, Raffaele Vardavas, David Manheim, Melinda Moore, Dhananjai M. Rao, Travis C. Porco, Sarah Ackley, Fengchen Liu, Lee Worden, Matteo Convertino, Yang Liu, Abraham Reddy, Eloy Ortiz, Jorge Rivero, Humberto Brito, Alicia Juarrero, Leah R. Johnson, Robert B. Gramacy, Jeremy M. Cohen, Erin A. Mordecai, Courtney C. Murdock, Jason R. Rohr, Sadie J. Ryan, Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra, Daniel P. Weikel, Antarpreet Jutla, Rakibul Khan, Marissa Poultney, Rita R. Colwell, Brenda Rivera-García, Christopher M. Barker, Jesse E. Bell, Matthew Biggerstaff, David Swerdlow, Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Brett M. Forshey, Juli Trtanj, Jason Asher, Matt Clay, Harold S. Margolis, Andrew M. Hebbeler, Dylan George, and Jean-Paul Chretien, which was first published November 11, 2019; 10.1073/pnas.1909865116 (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 116, 24268–24274). The authors note that the following statement should be added to the Acknowledgments: “E.A.M. was supported by NIH Grant R35GM133439.

Persistence of Gulf War illness (GWI) pathology among deployed veterans is a clinical challenge even after almost three decades. Recent studies show a higher prevalence of obesity and metabolic disturbances among Gulf War veterans primarily due to the existence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), chronic fatigue, sedentary lifestyle, and consumption of a high-carbohydrate/high-fat diet. We test the hypothesis that obesity from a Western-style diet alters host gut microbial species and worsens gastrointestinal and neuroinflammatory symptom persistence. We used a 5 month Western diet feeding in mice that received prior Gulf War (GW) chemical exposure to mimic the home phase obese phenotype of the deployed GW veterans. The host microbial profile in the Western diet-fed GWI mice showed a significant decrease in butyrogenic and immune health-restoring bacteria. The altered microbiome was associated with increased levels of IL6 in the serum, Claudin-2, IL6, and IL1β in the distal intestine with concurrent inflammatory lesions in the liver and hyperinsulinemia. Microbial dysbiosis was also associated with frontal cortex levels of increased IL6 and IL1β, activated microglia, decreased levels of brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), and higher accumulation of phosphorylated Tau, an indicator of neuroinflammation-led increased risk of cognitive deficiencies. Mechanistically, serum from Western diet-fed mice with GWI significantly increased microglial activation in transformed microglial cells, increased tyrosyl radicals, and secreted IL6. Collectively, the results suggest that an existing obese phenotype in GWI worsens persistent gastrointestinal and neuronal inflammation, which may contribute to poor outcomes in restoring cognitive function and resolving fatigue, leading to the deterioration of quality of life.

Following publication of the original article [1], the authors would like to highlight the following two corrections.

A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project-integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation-can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue.

Publication interests should not limit access to public data

BackgroundOne of the main challenges in metagenomics is the identification of microorganisms in clinical and environmental samples. While an extensive and heterogeneous set of computational tools is available to classify microorganisms using whole-genome shotgun sequencing data, comprehensive comparisons of these methods are limited.ResultsIn this study, we use the largest-to-date set of laboratory-generated and simulated controls across 846 species to evaluate the performance of 11 metagenomic classifiers. Tools were characterized on the basis of their ability to identify taxa at the genus, species, and strain levels, quantify relative abundances of taxa, and classify individual reads to the species level. Strikingly, the number of species identified by the 11 tools can differ by over three orders of magnitude on the same datasets. Various strategies can ameliorate taxonomic misclassification, including abundance filtering, ensemble approaches, and tool intersection. Nevertheless, these strategies were often insufficient to completely eliminate false positives from environmental samples, which are especially important where they concern medically relevant species. Overall, pairing tools with different classification strategies (k-mer, alignment, marker) can combine their respective advantages.ConclusionsThis study provides positive and negative controls, titrated standards, and a guide for selecting tools for metagenomic analyses by comparing ranges of precision, accuracy, and recall. We show that proper experimental design and analysis parameters can reduce false positives, provide greater resolution of species in complex metagenomic samples, and improve the interpretation of results.

Vibrio species are both ubiquitous and abundant in marine coastal waters, estuaries, ocean sediment, and aquaculture settings worldwide. We report here the isolation, characterization, and genome sequence of a novel Vibrio species, Vibrio antiquarius, isolated from a mesophilic bacterial community associated with hydrothermal vents located along the East Pacific Rise, near the southwest coast of Mexico. Genomic and phenotypic analysis revealed V. antiquarius is closely related to pathogenic Vibrio species, namely Vibrio alginolyticus, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio harveyi, and Vibrio vulnificus, but sufficiently divergent to warrant a separate species status. The V. antiquarius genome encodes genes and operons with ecological functions relevant to the environment conditions of the deep sea and also harbors factors known to be involved in human disease caused by freshwater, coastal, and brackish water vibrios. The presence of virulence factors in this deep-sea Vibrio species suggests a far more fundamental role of these factors for their bacterial host. Comparative genomics revealed a variety of genomic events that may have provided an important driving force in V. antiquarius evolution, facilitating response to environmental conditions of the deep sea.

Microbes hold the key to life. They hold the secrets to our past (as the descendants of the earliest forms of life) and the prospects for our future (as we mine their genes for solutions to some of the planet's most pressing problems, from global warming to antibiotic resistance). However, the piecemeal approach that has defined efforts to study microbial genetic diversity for over 20 years and in over 30,000 genome projects risks squandering that promise. These efforts have covered less than 20% of the diversity of the cultured archaeal and bacterial species, which represent just 15% of the overall known prokaryotic diversity. Here we call for the funding of a systematic effort to produce a comprehensive genomic catalog of all cultured Bacteria and Archaea by sequencing, where available, the type strain of each species with a validly published name (currently∼11,000). This effort will provide an unprecedented level of coverage of our planet's genetic diversity, allow for the large-scale discovery of novel genes and functions, and lead to an improved understanding of microbial evolution and function in the environment.