Search

Given the increases in spatial resolution and other improvements in climate modeling capabilities over the last decade since the CMIP3 simulations were completed, CMIP5 provides a unique opportunity to assess scientific understanding of climate variability and change over a range of historical and future conditions. With participation from over 20 modeling groups and more than 40 global models, CMIP5 represents the latest and most ambitious coordinated international climate model intercomparison exercise to date. Observations dating back to 1900 show that the temperatures in the twenty-first century have the largest spatial extent of record breaking and much above normal mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures. The 20-yr return value of the annual maximum or minimum daily temperature is one measure of changes in rare temperature extremes.

The communication of extreme weather forecasts (e.g., heatwaves and extreme precipitation) is a challenge for weather forecasters and emergency managers who are tasked with keeping residents safe during often unprecedented situations. Weather models have inherent uncertainty, and the ability for potentially life-saving information to get to the people who need it most (e.g., those who need to evacuate) remains a challenge despite the proliferation of digital access to information and social media sites like Twitter. It is also unclear the role that community-based organizations and super-local governmental entities play or may play during weather events in transmitting weather information and providing assistance. In New York City, there remains robust inequality, with communities that are historically disadvantaged often suffering the highest number of deaths and level of destruction following weather events. Results from interviewing 26 New York City community leaders suggest that local organizations often act as intermediaries, passing on official weather information to members of their audience, regardless of the mission statement of their organization. Common challenges for communities in responding to extreme weather include lack of access to information, language barriers, and insufficient resources. Considerations for future weather communication strategies are discussed., (© 2024 Society for Risk Analysis.)

This comprehensive review explores the intricate aspects of left ventricular thrombus (LVT), a potential complication in both ischemic and non-ischemic cardiomyopathies. It provides a thorough understanding of left ventricular thrombus, revealing its uncommon incidence in the general population (7 cases per 10,000 patients), predominantly linked to ischemic heart diseases (ICMs) at an 80% prevalence rate. Diagnostic tools, notably transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR), demonstrate varying sensitivity but remain indispensable in specific clinical contexts related to LVT as non-invasive diagnostic modalities. A detailed comparison between ICM patients and those with non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (NICM) who have left ventricular thrombus reveals subtle distinctions with significant clinical implications. This analysis underscores the importance of these imaging techniques in distinguishing between the two conditions. Additionally, we explored the occurrence of LVT in specific non-ischemic cardiomyopathies, including Takotsubo syndrome, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, eosinophilic myocarditis, Chagas disease, cardiac amyloidosis, and several other conditions. The article further delves into anticoagulation strategies, thoroughly examining their impact on LVT regression and patient outcomes. Pharmacological interventions, with a focus on direct oral anticoagulants, emerge as promising alternatives; however, there is insufficient information on their efficiency and safety, especially in NICM population. In conclusion, this review highlights the complex nature of LVT, incorporating a range of etiopathogenic factors, diagnostic complexities, and evolving therapeutic approaches. It emphasizes the pressing need for ongoing research in this field.

At the beginning of 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged as a new pandemic, leading to a worldwide health crisis and overwhelming healthcare systems due to high numbers of hospital admissions, insufficient resources, and a lack of standardized therapeutic protocols. Multiple genetic variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been detected since its first public declaration in 2020, some of them being considered variants of concern (VOCs) corresponding to several pandemic waves. Nevertheless, a growing number of COVID-19 patients are continuously discharged from hospitals, remaining symptomatic even months after their first episode of COVID-19 infection. Long COVID-19 or 'post-acute COVID-19 syndrome' emerged as the new pandemic, being characterized by a high variability of clinical manifestations ranging from cardiorespiratory and neurological symptoms such as chest pain, exertional dyspnoea or cognitive disturbance to psychological disturbances, e.g., depression, anxiety or sleep disturbance with a crucial impact on patients' quality of life. Moreover, Long COVID is viewed as a new cardiovascular risk factor capable of modifying the trajectory of current and future cardiovascular diseases, altering the patients' prognosis. Therefore, in this review we address the current definitions of Long COVID and its pathophysiology, with a focus on cardiovascular manifestations. Furthermore, we aim to review the mechanisms of acute and chronic cardiac injury and the variety of cardiovascular sequelae observed in recovered COVID-19 patients, in addition to the potential role of Long COVID clinics in the medical management of this new condition. We will further address the role of future research for a better understanding of the actual impact of Long COVID and future therapeutic directions.

. The nurses' strike in the United Kingdom: an overview of the reasons, debate and implications., Introduction: In the UK, where the National Health Service (NHS) was founded, one of the most important and long-lasting strikes in nursing is taking place., Aim: To understand the historical, professional, political/social reasons for the UK nurse's strike., Method: Historical, scientific literature and data from key informant interviews have been analysed. Data has been summarized narratively., Results: On 15th December 2022, more than 100,000 NHS nurses went on strike in England, Northern Ireland, and Wales asking for an increased salary; on the 6th and 7th of February and 1st of March the protest has continued. By improving pay, nurses believe the attractiveness of the profession can increase and counteract the loss of nurses who are leaving the public for the private sector, and the lack of attractiveness of the profession towards young people. The strike is organized by the Royal College of Nursing in a structured form which gives nurses precise information on how it should be explained to patients: according to a survey, 79% of the population supports the nurses' strike. However, not all agree with this strike action., Discussion: The media, social media and professional debate is passionate with some polarization between who is in favor and who is against. Nurses strike not only for better wages but also to increase patient safety. What we see in the UK today is the result of years of austerity, lack of investment and health priorities: a similar situation experienced in several countries as well.

Background: With the recent challenges due to the Coronavirus 2019 outbreak, distance learning has been largely introduced in healthcare sciences curricula, and universities have been called upon to share learning opportunities with each other to ensure continuity of education and delivery of new graduates to the health system. However, decisions about its introduction should be supported by up-to-date evidence capable of providing an overview of available knowledge., Objectives: To map the (a) state of research on massive open online courses in undergraduate and postgraduate health sciences education, (b) evaluation methods and tools used to measure learning outcomes, and (c) factors increasing their effectiveness as documented to date., Design: A rapid review following the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analysis guidelines., Methods: PubMed, the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Cochrane, Scopus, PsycInfo and Medline (via Ovid) were searched. Primary studies reporting one or more massive open online course (1) devoted to undergraduate and/or postgraduate students in nursing and healthcare sciences (2), written in English (3) with abstract available (4) and published up to February 18th, 2020 were all included. After having assessed the need for a review and the topic itself (a), the literature search was performed (b), studies were screened and selected (c), data was extracted (d), and the findings were summarised (e)., Results: Thirty-six studies emerged with mainly an explorative/descriptive or case study design. The courses have been developed mainly by universities alone or in collaboration with institutions mainly in US, Sweden and the UK. Their delivery has been performed at multi-national levels, mainly in English, and with a number of participants ranging from 45 to >23,000. The duration spanned from two weeks to six months on clinical topics (e.g., emergency medicine) to methods (e.g., statistics). The target audience has been mainly mixed, including students, healthcare professionals, and lay citizens. Evaluation methods and tools have been described in 28 studies, and multiple-choice questions were most frequently adopted. Factors affecting the effectiveness of massive open online courses have been identified analysing the courses themselves and the participants., Conclusion: Massive open online courses have recently started to be studied in healthcare sciences: these can be useful to educate students, mainly as elective courses, and to educate a massive audience, thus embodying the third mission of the university. The complexity of factors increasing effectiveness suggests the need for a multidisciplinary approach both in their design and implementation., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

This article introduces a new integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) framework to support hurricane evacuation decision making. It explicitly captures the dynamics, uncertainty, and human-natural system interactions that are fundamental to the challenge of hurricane evacuation, but have not been fully captured in previous formal evacuation models. The hazard is represented with an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios, population behavior with a dynamic decision model, and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model. The components are integrated in a multistage stochastic programming model that minimizes risk and travel times to provide a tree of evacuation order recommendations and an evaluation of the risk and travel time performance for that solution. The ISE framework recommendations offer an advance in the state of the art because they: (1) are based on an integrated hazard assessment (designed to ultimately include inland flooding), (2) explicitly balance the sometimes competing objectives of minimizing risk and minimizing travel time, (3) offer a well-hedged solution that is robust under the range of ways the hurricane might evolve, and (4) leverage the substantial value of increasing information (or decreasing degree of uncertainty) over the course of a hurricane event. A case study for Hurricane Isabel (2003) in eastern North Carolina is presented to demonstrate how the framework is applied, the type of results it can provide, and how it compares to available methods of a single scenario deterministic analysis and a two-stage stochastic program., (© 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.)

Hurricane track and intensity can change rapidly in unexpected ways, thus making predictions of hurricanes and related hazards uncertain. This inherent uncertainty often translates into suboptimal decision-making outcomes, such as unnecessary evacuation. Representing this uncertainty is thus critical in evacuation planning and related activities. We describe a physics-based hazard modeling approach that (1) dynamically accounts for the physical interactions among hazard components and (2) captures hurricane evolution uncertainty using an ensemble method. This loosely coupled model system provides a framework for probabilistic water inundation and wind speed levels for a new, risk-based approach to evacuation modeling, described in a companion article in this issue. It combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) hydrologic model, and the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) storm surge, tide, and wind-wave model to compute inundation levels and wind speeds for an ensemble of hurricane predictions. Perturbations to WRF's initial and boundary conditions and different model physics/parameterizations generate an ensemble of storm solutions, which are then used to drive the coupled hydrologic + hydrodynamic models. Hurricane Isabel (2003) is used as a case study to illustrate the ensemble-based approach. The inundation, river runoff, and wind hazard results are strongly dependent on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulations, which improves with decreasing lead time to hurricane landfall. The ensemble envelope brackets the observed behavior while providing "best-case" and "worst-case" scenarios for the subsequent risk-based evacuation model., (© 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.)

Unlabelled: Asymptomatic urinary tract infections are common in diabetic patients. The aim of this 10 months prospective study is to evaluate urinary dipstick tests versus cytobacteriological examination to conclude the absence of urinary tract infection in diabetic subjects. Each diabetic patient hospitalised for less than 8 hours and for whom it was decided a cytobacteriological examination was included in the study (141 samples). At the same time (and at patient's bedside) a dipstick urinalisys (glucose, leucocytes, nitrite, blood, protein, and ketone) was carried out. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, post test probability and negative likehood ratio were calculated., Results: the combination of leucocyte zone with nitrite zone (both negative) has a 85,2% sensitivity, avoids 65% of cytobacteriology, but has an odd ratio at 0,20. Those results are improved when the glucose zone (negative test or less than 4 crosses) is taken into account, with a 96,3% sensitivity, 63,4% cytobacteriology avoided and a negative likehood ratio at 0,06., Conclusion: The addition of the glucose test to the usual leucocytes and nitrite tests seems to allow one to conclude the absence of urinary tract infection in diabetic patients; this is worth studying with a more extensive sample.

The Euroaction project, promoted by European Society of Cardiology, aims to determine whether a nurse co-ordinated, multidisciplinary, family based preventive cardiology programme could help more patients and their families achieve the recommended European lifestyle, risk factor and therapeutic goals for cardiovascular disease prevention. EUROACTION was evaluated in a paired cluster randomized controlled trial, and the primary care branch included 6 European countries. Consecutive patients > 50 years and < 80 years, with no history of cardiovascular disease, were prospectively identified by the general practitioners with one of the following: (i) high total cardiovascular risk (HeartScore > or = 5% over 10 years, either now or when projected to age 60 years) and on no medical treatment for blood pressure, lipids or diabetes; (ii) on treatment with anti-hypertensive and/or lipid-lowering drug therapies started in the last year but with no diabetes; (iii) diagnosed with diabetes mellitus (treated by diet alone or with oral hypoglycaemic drug therapy and/or insulin) within the last three years in both intervention and usual care practices. All eligible high risk individuals and their partners were then invited by the nurse for an assessment of their lifestyle, risk factors and therapeutic management as soon as possible after identification. In the primary care intervention branch 1019 patients have been enrolled with no differences by sex and mean age 62, while in the control branch 1005 patients were recruited with mean age 63, female were 43%. The main results show that Intervention group (I) had a statistically significant improvement compared to Usual Care (UC) in the assumption of recommended quantity of fruit and vegetables (78.4% I vs 38.8% UC p=0.005), in the weight loss (weight loss > al 5% in subjects with BMI > 25 kg/m2) (16.5% I vs 6.8% UC p=0.005), in blood pressure control both in people specifically treated with drugs and untreated (respectively 52% I vs 35% UC p=0.04 and 65% Ivs 45% UC p=0.02), in reaching the European target for total cholesterol (Total Cholesterol < 5.0 mmol/l) during the study year (from 21.9% to 35.8% (I) absolute increase 12.7% (p=0.025) vs from 33% to 32.2% (UC)). No significant differences were found about change of smoking habits. The experimented intervention model based on a multidisciplinary approach and nurses leaded showed a good one year impact in reducing cardiovascular risk factors in high risk people. This model should be further tested in local contexts.

Through an enormous research effort over the past five decades and especially due to early screening, an increasing number of cancers are potentially curable. Patients expand immeasurable energy in adhering to treatment plans and supportive care. Unfortunately, nothing prepares them for the anxiety that often comes with completion of therapy. More importantly, physicians are not properly equipped with data from controlled trials to define appropriate post-treatment surveillance, data with which they could educate patients and allay their fears. The goal of post-treatment surveillance is to enable the early detection of relapses and thus enhance the possibility of subsequent cure. Accordingly special follow-up is appropriate only for patients who can receive a second-line therapy. Clinical trials support conservative, rather than aggressive, surveillance to detect curable local relapse of breast tumors and potentially surgically curable metastases (mainly in the liver) of colon cancer. For germ-cell tumors, second-line treatments are potentially curative in nearly all instances. Follow-up for other cancers depends on patients' anxiety levels and on the costs of surveillance.

Objective: The objective of this study was to analyze the characteristics of a series of acute aseptic meningitis (AAM) (defined by sterile cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) with more than 10 leucocytes per mm3 and a neutrophilic polynuclear-rich formula). We analysed the initial management, the reasons for antibiotic and/or antiviral treatment, the aetiologies, the need for lumbar puncture and the progression..., Method: We retrospectively analyzed 32 cases of AAM (out of a total of 130 cases of meningitis) from two departments of internal medicine in Lyon, diagnosed between January 1996 and January 2003. Only the files fulfilling the AAM criteria were retained, selecting those with a minimum neutrophilic polynuclear level of 30% in the CSF., Results: The mean age was 32.6 years (range: 18-75) and predominantly male patients (59%). On admission, 87% of the patients exhibited fever, but only 9% remaining so for 72 hours. Viral syndrome before admission was noted in 59% of cases, with seasonal predilection (summer: 39%, winter: 35%). The motivation for lumbar puncture (LP) was meningeal syndrome (44%), headache (94%) and vomiting (47%). The average rate of neutrophils in the CSF on admission was 63% (range: 30-96). A control LP on Day 3 was performed 16 times (50%): mean PNN rate at 18% (range: 0-80), lymphocyte rate=68% (range: 20-95). Most of the patients (77.4%) had a C reactive protein (CRP) lower than 50 mg/l on admission (range: 5-320). A cerebral scan was performed 10 times (31%) and was abnormal 2 times (multiple cerebral abscesses, possible intracranial hypertension). An antibiotic (84%) and/or antiviral (34%) treatment was initiated. The evolution on Day 3 was favourable (87.5%): no fever, regression of the meningeal syndrome, with a mean duration of hospitalisation of 8.3 days (range: 1-60). Search for Herpes simplex virus and Enterovirus was made with PCR analysis in 20 cases (62.5%): no positivity for the herpes, but 9 for the Enterovirus. The systematic blood cultures were positive only once (staphylococcal infective endocarditis with cerebral abscesses). The diagnosis of bacterial meningitis was evoked 3 times (prior antibiotic treatment)., Discussion: The frequency of Enterovirus AAM should encourage this type of investigation in order to withdraw the often initiated anti-infectious treatment rapidly, and hence avoid a second lumbar puncture.

Introduction: Thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA) regroups the hemolytic and uremic syndrome (HUS) and thrombocytopenic thrombotic purpura (TTP). The TMA associated with cancer can be secondary to cancer, hence similar to TTP, or to chemotherapy, creating an HUS. Gemcitabine, used in the treatment of pulmonary, pancreatic and urothelial carcinomas, is generally well tolerated, but has recently been implied in the occurrence of TMA., Observation: In a patient treated for a metastatic urothelial carcinoma, HUS developed after 8 cues of gemcitabine used alone. After symptomatic treatment and withdrawal of gemcitabine, the hematological abnormalities disappeared and renal function returned to preceding values., Discussion: The incidence of TMA is of around 5 to 6% of metastatic carcinomas. Gemcitabine-induced TMA are of recent occurrence and some twelve cases have been reported. Their occurrence is delayed with regard to the initiation of gemcitabine. They lead to HUS with good prognosis since, on withdrawal of gemcitabine the renal abnormalities regress. Search for TMA should therefore be proposed after more than 10 cycles of treatment with gemcitabine.