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Vibrio vulnificus is an opportunistic bacterial pathogen, occurring in warm low-salinity waters. V. vulnificus wound infections due to seawater exposure are infrequent but mortality rates are high (~ 18%). Seawater bacterial concentrations are increasing but changing disease pattern assessments or climate change projections are rare. Here, using a 30-year database of V. vulnificus cases for the Eastern USA, changing disease distribution was assessed. An ecological niche model was developed, trained and validated to identify links to oceanographic and climate data. This model was used to predict future disease distribution using data simulated by seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) which belong to the newest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Risk was estimated by calculating the total population within 200 km of the disease distribution. Predictions were generated for different “pathways” of global socioeconomic development which incorporate projections of greenhouse gas emissions and demographic change. In Eastern USA between 1988 and 2018, V. vulnificus wound infections increased eightfold (10–80 cases p.a.) and the northern case limit shifted northwards 48 km p.a. By 2041–2060, V. vulnificus infections may expand their current range to encompass major population centres around New York (40.7°N). Combined with a growing and increasingly elderly population, annual case numbers may double. By 2081–2100 V. vulnificus infections may be present in every Eastern USA State under medium-to-high future emissions and warming. The projected expansion of V. vulnificus wound infections stresses the need for increased individual and public health awareness in these areas.

The current epidemic of COVID-19 is unparalleled in recent history as are the social distancing interventions that have led to a significant halt on the economic and social life of so many countries. However, there is very little empirical evidence about which social distancing measures have the most impact. We report a quasi-experimental study of the impact of various interventions for control of the outbreak. Data on case numbers and deaths were taken from the daily published figures by the European Centre for Disease Control and dates of initiation of various control strategies from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation website and published sources. Our complementary analyses were modelled in R using Bayesian generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) and in Stata using multi-level mixed effects regression models. From both sets of modelling, we found that closure of education facilities, prohibiting mass gatherings and closure of some non-essential businesses were associated with reduced incidence whereas stay at home orders and closure of all non-businesses was not associated with any independent additional impact. Our results could help inform strategies for coming out of lockdown.

Common ragweed is a highly allergenic invasive species in Europe, expected to become widespread under climate change. Allergy to ragweed manifests as eye, nasal and lung symptoms, and children may retain these throughout life. The dose-response relationship between symptoms and pollen concentrations is unclear.We undertook a longitudinal study, assessing the association between ragweed pollen concentration and allergic eye, nasal and lung symptoms in children living under a range of ragweed pollen concentrations in Croatia. Over three years, 85 children completed daily diaries, detailing allergic symptoms alongside daily location, activities and medication, resulting in 10, 130 individual daily entries. The daily ragweed pollen concentration for the children's locations was obtained, alongside daily weather and air pollution. Parents completed a home/lifestyle/ medical questionnaire. Generalised Additive Mixed Models established the relationship between pollen concentrations and symptoms, alongside other covariates. Eye symptoms were associated with mean daily pollen concentration over four days (day of symptoms plus 3 previous days) ; 61 grains/m3/day (95%CI: 45, 100)was the threshold at which 50% of children reported symptoms. Nasal symptoms were associated with mean daily pollen concentration over 12 days (day of symptoms plus 11 previous days) ; the threshold for 50% of children reporting symptoms was 40 grains/m3/day (95%CI: 24, 87). Lung symptoms showed a relationship with mean daily pollen concentration over 19 days (day of symptoms plus 18 previous days), with a threshold of 71 grains/m3/day (95%CI: 59, 88). Taking medication on the day of symptoms showed higher odds, suggesting responsive behaviour. Taking medication on the day prior to symptoms showed lower odds of reporting, indicating preventative behaviour. Different symptoms in children demonstrate varying dose-response relationships with ragweed pollen concentrations. Each symptom type responded to pollen exposure over different time periods. Using medication prior to symptoms can reduce symptom presence. These findings can be used to be manage paediatric ragweed allergy symptoms.

Correction for “Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America,” by Felipe J. Colón-González, Ian Harris, Timothy J. Osborn, Christine Steiner São Bernardo, Carlos A. Peres, Paul R. Hunter, and Iain R. Lake, which was first published May 29, 2018; 10.1073/pnas.1718945115 (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 115, 6243–6248). The authors note that Rachel Warren and Detlef van Vuuren should be added to the author list. Rachel Warren should appear as the seventh author, following Paul R. Hunter. Detlef van Vuuren should appear as the eighth author, following Rachel Warren and preceding Iain R. Lake. Rachel Warren should be credited with designing research. Detlef van Vuuren should be credited with contributing data. The corrected author line, affiliation line, and author contributions appear below. The online version has been corrected. The authors also note that the following statement should be added to the Acknowledgments: “R.W. and D.v.V. also received funding from the United Kingdom government, Department for Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy, as part of the ‘Implications of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Project.’”