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Objectives Previous studies and theories show that healthy lifestyles are affected by life chances and subjective perceptions. However, it remains unclear how older adults change between different lifestyle profiles as they age. We proposed the healthy lifestyle duality framework and tested it among older Chinese adults using a longitudinal design. Methods Data were obtained from 4 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Surveys conducted between 2008 and 2018 (N = 31,445). Latent transition analysis and hierarchical multinomial growth curve models were performed to investigate healthy lifestyle profiles and their associations with life chances and subjective perceptions over time. Results Four distinct healthy lifestyle profiles were identified: healthy, risky, low-standard, and mixed groups, and their changes show path dependency. Across 10 years, the proportion of the healthy group ranged from 11.16% to 16.97%. Both life chances and subjective perceptions were longitudinally associated with healthy lifestyles, with age and cohort effects observed. Discussion Our findings support the healthy lifestyle duality framework and reveal that life chances and subjective perceptions influence lifestyle changes over time. Public health policies and health intervention programs should adapt to the specific needs of different age groups and generations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact on polluting emissions as a result of manufacturing industries in China offering services as well as products. We merge detailed firm-level statistics covering 2000 to 2011, and use two-way linear fixed effects regression to control for firm and year heterogeneities and a host of control variables. The empirical results show that manufacturing servitization significantly reduces the emission intensity of firms. This effect is achieved by improving the total factor productivity of firms, optimizing the efficiency of energy use, and increasing the share of the highly-skilled labour force. Moreover, the emission reduction effect of manufacturing servitization is more profound in the eastern and central regions, pollution-intensive industries, non-state-owned firms, and processing trade firms. In addition, our extended analysis shows that the emission reduction effects of manufacturing servitization can be strengthened through trade liberalization and cohort study. The major policy implication is that governments should undertake industrial policies that reinforce the positive effects of manufacturing servitization in order to achieve win-win outcomes in manufacturing upgrading and environmental protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Juvenile survival is critical to population persistence and evolutionary change. However, the survival of juvenile plants from emergence to reproductive maturity is rarely quantified. This is especially true for long‐lived perennials with extended pre‐reproductive periods. Furthermore, studies rarely have the replication necessary to account for variation among populations and cohorts. We estimated juvenile survival and its relationship to population size, density of conspecifics, distance to the maternal plant, age, year, and cohort for Echinacea angustifolia, a long‐lived herbaceous perennial. In 14 remnant prairie populations over seven sampling years, 2007–2013, we identified 886 seedlings. We then monitored these individuals annually until 2021 (8–15 years). Overall, juvenile mortality was very high; for almost all cohorts fewer than 10% of seedlings survived to age 8 or to year 2021. Only two of the seedlings reached reproductive maturity within the study period. Juvenile survival increased with distance from the maternal plant and varied more among the study years than it did by age or cohort. Juvenile survival did not vary with population size or local density of conspecific neighbors. Our results suggest that low juvenile survival could contribute to projected population declines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Alcohol use is declining among US adolescents/early young adults and increasing among other adults, with increases in adult binge drinking more concentrated in females than males. Reasons for drinking are historically patterned by age and sex, and if historically variant, could suggest that changes over time could in part explain age‐ and sex‐differential cohort effects. Methods: We analyzed longitudinal Monitoring the Future data for individuals born from 1958 to 1990. These individuals were aged 29/30 from 1987 to 2020, and first surveyed at age 18 from 1976 to 2008 (N = 14,190). Five reasons for drinking were analyzed (social, enhancement, avoid problems, relax, boredom). Drinking for social reasons and to relax were most prevalent. Total effects of birth cohort predicting past‐2‐week binge drinking were estimated with polynomial regression models by age; indirect effects through mediators were estimated. Results: Drinking reasons exhibited dynamic time trends across birth cohort and sex. Notable increases were observed in social reasons: among women aged 29/30, social reasons increased from 53% to 87% from 1987 to 2020. Social reasons to drink had prominent positive indirect effects at adult ages (age 23/24 and above among men; age 19 and above among women), indicating that binge drinking would have increased less were it not for the increase in social reasons for drinking. Social reasons also mediated adult male/female differences, indicating that part of the reason sex differences are diminishing is the more rapid increases in social reasons for drinking among women. Indirect effects were also observed for drinking to relax and for boredom, and limited indirect effects were observed for enhancement and to avoid problems. Conclusion: Changing endorsement of drinking reasons, especially social reasons, among US adult drinkers mediate cohort effects in binge drinking in the US adult population and explain in part why binge drinking is converging by sex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider a heterogeneous Susceptible–Infected–Recovered epidemic model, calibrated to the COVID-19 pandemic characteristics. We study the equilibrium of a voluntary social distancing game on a network of individuals subject to epidemic risk. We quantify the absolute and relative utility gaps across age cohorts. We further introduce life insurance in the model, which serves to mitigate the loss in the severe individual outcomes. We find that in most cases, insurance decreases the risk of contagion in the network because more individuals can be incentivized to self-isolate. On the other hand, in the case when the insurer does not have sufficient information on the self-isolation strategy of the individual, insurance can introduce moral hazard. We find that when premiums cannot be sufficiently differentiated, individuals may choose not to socially distance. This illustrates the importance of disclosing self-isolation strategies to the insurer, or inferring these strategies for the various types. Partial monitoring of social distancing strategy can mitigate the two problems of moral hazard and adverse selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crime is often considered a behavior of teenagers and young adults, peaking in adolescence, and declining with age. A growing body of research, however, has demonstrated that the age–crime relationship is neither universal, as the contours of the age–crime distribution vary across countries, nor uniform, as it varies over time. We argue that the dynamics of the age–crime relationship can best be understood through a lens situating birth cohorts within the broader sociohistorical contexts in which they enter their formative years. We apply this framework to the Republic of Korea, a country that has experienced rapid demographic transitions accompanied by decades of economic development and social upheaval after the Korean War. Our findings suggest that the age–crime distribution in Korea has shifted substantially since the mid‐1970s, moving from the quintessential age–crime curve characteristic of Western countries to one in which the modal age at arrest is now concentrated in middle age. We find that much of this change can be attributed to the aging of a specific birth cohort—the 86 generation—whose members were dually disadvantaged by being born during a fertility boom and entering young adulthood during the pro‐democracy student movements in the 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accelerated longitudinal designs allow researchers to efficiently collect longitudinal data covering a time span much longer than the study duration. One important assumption of these designs is that each cohort (a group defined by their age of entry into the study) shares the same longitudinal trajectory. Although previous research has examined the impact of violating this assumption when each cohort is defined by a single age of entry, it is possible that each cohort is instead defined by a range of ages, such as groups that experience a particular historical event. In this paper we examined how including cohort membership in linear and quadratic multilevel models performed in detecting and controlling for cohort effects in this scenario. Using a Monte Carlo simulation study, we assessed the performance of this approach under conditions related to the number of cohorts, the overlap between cohorts, the strength of the cohort effect, the number of affected parameters, and the sample size. Our results indicate that models including a proxy variable for cohort membership based on age at study entry performed comparably to using true cohort membership in detecting cohort effects accurately and returning unbiased parameter estimates. This indicates that researchers can control for cohort effects even when true cohort membership is unknown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of human capital and human development for understanding economics and social relations has repeatedly been proven since the time of Adam Smith. Theories on human capital and human development were conceptualized in their modern form in the USA in the 1960’s to 1980’s. However, in recent decades they have been seriously criticized in scientific literature, primarily due to issues pertaining to how they approach measurement. In this article a critical revision of the main approaches towards evaluating human capital in modern social sciences is conducted. New strategies for measuring human capital and human development include not only a “quantitative” indicator (number of years spent receiving formal education), but also an indicator showing the quality of acquired knowledge and skills. Such approaches provide a possibility to observe the improvement or degradation of human capital outside of conventional formal education, which allows perceiving human capital as embedded in the processes of local social, economic and historical development. This historical rootedness of human capital and human development seems to be of utmost importance for fluid societies in a state of crisis. The prospects for sociologization of the concepts of human capital and human development as well as the potential of life-course sociology for their analysis are discussed. It is suggested to view human capital through a cohort approach lens. The discussion outlines research strategies for studying human capital and human development within the proposed logic.

Infant motor development is affected by the sociocultural context in which it takes place. Because societal and cultural practices are dynamic, this exploratory study examined whether the ages at which infants typically learned to crawl, cruise, and walk changed over the past 3 decades. We compiled archival data from 1,306 infants born between January 31, 1992, and December 10, 2021. Parents originally reported milestone onsets in interviews and by using diaries. For each motor milestone, a linear regression model predicted the onset age using birth date. Segmented regression analyses inspected changes in slopes over time. Covariates included rural/urban housing, gestation age, season of birth, and birth weight. Infants' average crawling, cruising, and walking onset ages changed over time. After controlling for the covariates, infants' crawling onset age steadily increased until 2012, after which crawling onset age decreased. Infants' cruising onset age increased from 1991 to 2001, after which cruising onset age remained stable. After controlling for the covariates, infants' walking onset increased until 2015, after which walking onset age decreased. Thus, when infants were born explained a small but significant amount of variability in infant motor skill onset. While the current study showed that motor development changed over the years, motor development is just a model system for development more generally: Cohort effects may be pervasive across developmental domains. Using motor development as a model system for studying change suggests that generational effects due to a changing society may be pervasive across developmental domains. Public Significance Statement: From 1992 to 2021, on average infants learned to crawl, cruise, and walk at later ages. Trajectories of infant and child development are susceptible to broad social and cultural changes. Updating developmental norms to account for within-culture and cohort-level changes may be necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The racial and ethnic differences in trajectories of sleep disturbances in later life are crucial for addressing health disparities, but are not well understood. This study examines (a) how trajectories of sleep disturbances vary by race and ethnicity and birth cohort and (b) whether social and health risk factors explain such variations. Methods The study uses longitudinal data from the 2002–2018 Health and Retirement Study (N  = 21 963) and the multilevel growth curve model to assess trajectories of sleep disturbances and their variations across 6 cohorts of White, Black, and Hispanic older adults. Sleep disturbances are measured using a modified Jenkins Sleep Scale. Results Without controls, sleep disturbances increased with aging for all racial and ethnic groups, but more rapidly among minorities, particularly younger cohorts of Hispanic older adults. When controlling for social and health risks, sleep disturbances did not change with aging for Whites and Blacks and increased for younger cohorts of Hispanics. Cohort effects were observed among White older adults, with higher sleep disturbances in younger cohorts. Importantly, the racial and ethnic disparities in age and cohort effects were not fully explained by social and health risks. Of the symptoms, the most salient racial and ethnic disparities were found in "waking up at night" and "not feeling rested." Conclusions Findings reveal several differences by race and ethnicity and birth cohort in trajectories of sleep disturbances. Efforts should be made to improve sleep health for older adults as they age, especially for younger cohorts of Blacks and Hispanics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 2002 and 2016, church attendance and self-attributed religiosity declines linearly, if all countries included in the European Social Survey are taken together. This analysis differentiates within Europe between two ideological and three denominational divides. Two questions are examined. First, is secularization pervasive across these groups? Second, how pervasive does secularization remain as a macro-level trend, when cohort membership and other individual-level qualities are controlled for? We find that the trend in secularization is well-explained by cohort succession in Western as well as in Catholic and Protestant countries. In Eastern Orthodox countries, however, an increase in religiosity is observed, which cannot be explained by individual-level properties. We speculate that it is triggered by a coalition of national churches and political elites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Problem gambling increases the risk of experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV). People impacted by gambling-related IPV face distinctive challenges, and these may be compounded by intersections with gender, generational influences and contextual factors. This study explored the past experiences of older women affected by male partner violence linked to gambling, and how these were shaped by cohort and period effects and problem gambling. Cohort effects are the generational characteristics of a group born at a particular time, while period effects relate to prevailing external conditions at the time of the abuse, including laws, services and practices. Methods A larger study exploring the nature of the relationship between problem gambling and IPV recruited 72 women through help services and advertising. The current study analysed a subset of interviews with 22 women aged 50 years or over. We analysed the data using adaptive grounded theory to explore the intersection between IPV, gambling, and cohort and period effects. Results Cohort effects on the women’s experiences of IPV included gendered attitudes, traditional views of marriage, silence surrounding IPV, reticence to disclose the abuse, and little understanding of problem gambling. These influences deterred women from questioning their partner’s gambling, and to instead keep the gambling and abuse hidden. Many women did not recognise abuse linked to gambling as IPV, since gambling was considered a normal, harmless pastime. Having a gambling problem exacerbated violence and coercive control by male partners as traditional gender norms supported male authority over their female partner. Women with a gambling problem sometimes felt they deserved the abuse. Period effects included a lack of IPV and gambling services, gendered service responses, failure to prioritise the women’s safety, and no consideration by services of the role of gambling in the abuse. Conclusion Reducing gender inequality is critical to reduce male partner violence towards women. Women impacted by gambling-related IPV, including the legacy of past abuse, need service responses that recognise all forms of abuse, understand the historical and contextual factors that exacerbate it, and recognise how gambling can amplify IPV. A reduction in problem gambling is needed to reduce gambling-related IPV.

Understanding longitudinal patterns of rural–urban mental health disparities is vital for effective intervention and policy development in China. However, few studies have estimated separate effects of birth-cohort and ageing and examined the role of community resources on health inequalities. Drawing data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011–2018), this study employed multilevel modelling to identify the mental health trajectories of rural, peri-urban, urban older adults by cohort and the community effects. The changes in the mental health gap between rural, peri-urban and urban older adults over time varied by birth cohorts. Among younger cohorts aged under 65, the mental health disparities between rural, peri-urban and urban residents increased as they got older. Underdeveloped community infrastructure greatly explained the rural health disadvantage. The study indicates increasing rural–urban health disparities at the onset of later life. Improving community infrastructure in rural and peri-urban areas is vital to minimise rural–urban health gaps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite the well-known deleterious health effects of childhood adversity (CA) and adulthood trauma (AT) and ageing of the global population, little is known about self-reported CA and AT in older populations. Existing findings are mixed due to methodological and sampling artefacts, in particular, recall and selection biases, and due to age-period-cohort effects. Objectives: We aim to first, provide data on the prevalence of retrospective self-reported CA and AT in a large population-based sample of older adults and, second, to discuss the data in the context of major methodological and sampling artefacts, and age-period-cohort effects. Method: Data are derived from the U.S. population-based Health and Retirement Study (N = 19,547, mean age = 67.24 ± 11.33, 59% female). Seven birth-cohorts were included (1959). Results: Overall, 35% of participants reported CA and 62% AT, with strong variability among birth-cohorts. Opposing trends were observed regarding prevalence of CA and AT. As age of cohorts increased, prevalence of CAs decreased while that of ATs increased. Investigating the distributions of incidence of specific ATs across age and period per cohort revealed incidence of exposure was associated with (1) age (e.g. having lost a child), (2) time-period (e.g. major disaster), and (3) cohort (e.g. military combat). Conclusions: Retrospective self-reported CA and AT in older samples should be interpreted with caution and with regard to major methodological challenges, including recall and selection biases. Untangling fact from artefact and examining age, period, and cohort effects will help elucidate profiles of lifetime exposures in older populations.

Researchers and policymakers often attempt to forecast trends in automobile ownership. But to understand recent changes in demand for cars, researchers must account for behaviors specific to different generations, while simultaneously controlling for the influence of lifecycle and historical effects. To overcome the analytical challenges of cross-sectional data in Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis, we apply three different approaches largely used by biostatisticians to isolate how cohort effects influence the likelihood that a U.S. adult lives in a zero-vehicle household.Our analyses draw on data from the U.S. Census Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) from 1970 to 2019. To test for cohort effects, we use constraint-based binary logistic regression, a nonlinear parametric approach to log-linear models, and median polish analysis. We find that people born from 1935 to 1944 experienced the strongest negative cohort effect of all groups, and thus were least likely to live in zero-vehicle households (after accounting for age and period effects). Compared to this cohort, persons born before 1924 and after 1955 saw higher likelihoods of living in zero-vehicle households, all else equal.The peak cohort effect of people born in the 1930s to 1940s may please those interested in reducing automobile use. But because automobiles offer access benefits, more recent cohorts may experience transportation challenges. Negative effects may be especially salient for Millennials, a group faring worse economically than previous generations. Further, recent changes in the transportation landscape – including the growth of services like carshare and ride-hail and behavioral changes emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic – complicate efforts to forecast demand for automobiles.

Background: Problem gambling increases the risk of experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV). People impacted by gambling-related IPV face distinctive challenges, and these may be compounded by intersections with gender, generational influences and contextual factors. This study explored the past experiences of older women affected by male partner violence linked to gambling, and how these were shaped by cohort and period effects and problem gambling. Cohort effects are the generational characteristics of a group born at a particular time, while period effects relate to prevailing external conditions at the time of the abuse, including laws, services and practices. Methods: A larger study exploring the nature of the relationship between problem gambling and IPV recruited 72 women through help services and advertising. The current study analysed a subset of interviews with 22 women aged 50 years or over. We analysed the data using adaptive grounded theory to explore the intersection between IPV, gambling, and cohort and period effects. Results: Cohort effects on the women's experiences of IPV included gendered attitudes, traditional views of marriage, silence surrounding IPV, reticence to disclose the abuse, and little understanding of problem gambling. These influences deterred women from questioning their partner's gambling, and to instead keep the gambling and abuse hidden. Many women did not recognise abuse linked to gambling as IPV, since gambling was considered a normal, harmless pastime. Having a gambling problem exacerbated violence and coercive control by male partners as traditional gender norms supported male authority over their female partner. Women with a gambling problem sometimes felt they deserved the abuse. Period effects included a lack of IPV and gambling services, gendered service responses, failure to prioritise the women's safety, and no consideration by services of the role of gambling in the abuse. Conclusion: Reducing gender inequality is critical to reduce male partner violence towards women. Women impacted by gambling-related IPV, including the legacy of past abuse, need service responses that recognise all forms of abuse, understand the historical and contextual factors that exacerbate it, and recognise how gambling can amplify IPV. A reduction in problem gambling is needed to reduce gambling-related IPV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Visual world studies show that upon hearing a word in a target-absent visual context containing related and unrelated items,toddlers and adults briefly direct their gaze towards phonolog-ically related items, before shifting towards semantically andvisually related ones. We present a neural network model thatprocesses dynamic unfolding phonological representations andmaps them to static internal semantic and visual representa-tions. The model, trained on representations derived from realcorpora, simulates this early phonological over semantic/visualpreference. Our results support the hypothesis that incremen-tal unfolding of a spoken word is in itself sufficient to ac-count for the transient preference for phonological competi-tors over both unrelated and semantically and visually relatedones. Phonological representations mapped dynamically in abottom-up fashion to semantic-visual representations capturethe early phonological preference effects reported in a visualworld task. The semantic-visual preference observed later insuch a trial does not require top-down feedback from a seman-tic or visual system.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence rates have decreased among adults aged 50 years or older while increasing in adults under age 50 years. Understanding these trends is challenging because of the multiple related time scales of age, diagnosis period, and birth cohort. We analyzed incidence rates of rectal, distal colon, and proximal colon cancer for individuals aged 20 years or more from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program for diagnosis years 1978–2017. We used a 2-stage generalized linear model to determine age, period, and cohort effects for CRC incidence. We first estimated birth cohort effects among people under age 45 years. We used these results to specify prior distributions for cohort effects in a Bayesian model to estimate period effects among people aged 45 years or more. There was no evidence of period effects for people under age 45 years. Risks of rectal and distal colon cancer increased for later birth cohorts. Compared with the 1943–1952 birth cohort, the 1983–1992 birth cohort had 2.2 times the risk of rectal cancer, 1.9 times the risk of distal colon cancer, and 1.3 times the risk of proximal colon cancer. For people aged ≥45 years, period effects showed declines in CRC risk that were attributable to screening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Are Russians religious? In this paper, religiosity in Russia (2011–2021) is decomposed into age, cohort and period effects using panel data analysis techniques. It is shown that age effects on religiosity are U-shaped: respondents are more religious when young or old with the minima at the age of 41–45 for women and 46–60 for men. The most religious cohorts in Russia were born in 1960–1980. There is a sharp decline in religiosity in younger generations. There is also a large gender religiosity gap in older generations: women are more religious than men. However, in younger cohorts, the gender religiosity gap closes. Time effects suggest that religiosity in Russia was increasing before 2016, while in 2016, a substantial decline occurred. Since 2016, there has been no growth in religiosity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives To examine whether racial disparities are narrowing or widening with historical time among U.S. middle-aged and older adults, and test the extent to which educational attainment moderates racial disparities over historical time. Methods Multilevel models were applied to longitudinal data on middle-aged (ages 40–65) and older adults (ages 66 and older) from the Health and Retirement Study. Historical change was indexed as cohort or birth year. The outcomes of focus were depressive symptoms, episodic memory, health conditions, functional limitations, and self-rated health. Results Results revealed a differential pattern of racial disparities in historical change between midlife and old age. Across midlife and old age, on average, Blacks and Hispanics reported poorer levels of mental and physical health, compared with Whites. In midlife, racial disparities narrowed with historical time; later-born cohorts of Hispanics but not Whites reported fewer depressive symptoms than their earlier-born peers. Likewise, historical improvements in health were stronger among Hispanics and Blacks than Whites. Conversely, in old age, later-born cohorts across race consistently showed historical improvements in each of the outcomes examined. Regarding educational attainment, we observed little consistent evidence that health-promoting effects of educational attainment differ across race and cohort. Examining questions about heterogeneity, results revealed that in midlife and old age there was greater heterogeneity between race across each of the outcomes. Discussion Our discussion elaborates on reasons behind the documented racial differences in historical changes among U.S. middle-aged and older adults, and how the protective role of education is changing over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

People's social participation is deeply rooted in social change and development. Based on the World Values Survey data from 1990 to 2018, this study analyzed the temporal trend of social participation across successive cohorts in China using the hierarchical age-period-cohort-cross-classified random effects model. The results show that social participation continued to fall among Chinese born before 1972 and then successively rose in the following cohorts. However, this cohort effect was mainly attributed to the participation in Olsonian associations, and it could be partly explained by people's education attainment. The cohort effects of participation in three Olsonian associations, including trade unions, political associations and professional organizations, were similar to that of general social participation. The significant increase in social participation in cohorts born after the 1970s is mainly attributed to China's socioeconomic and educational development, and a favorable environment for social development is a critical factor for civic social participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Body size and growth rate can influence individual and population success by mediating fitness. Understanding the factors that influence growth can be difficult to disentangle, however, because growth can be shaped by environmental conditions recently experienced, as well as legacy effects from conditions experienced earlier in life and by parents (via parental effects). To improve understanding of growth among annual cohorts (1982-2015) of Lake Erie Walleye (Sander vitreus), a species with life-history and growth characteristics similar to many other long-lived, iteroparous fishes, we determined the role of the following hypothesised factors: (H1) recent environmental conditions; (H2) traits and experiences of the cohort, including growth, in the previous year; (H3) early-life cohort density; (H4) early-life body size; and (H5) parental composition and environment. We evaluated the relative importance of these hypothesised factors using piecewise structural equation modelling in an information-theoretic framework. Our results indicated that cohort-specific growth of Lake Erie Walleye was most strongly influenced by traits (growth) and experiences of the cohort during the previous year (H2) and parental composition and environment (H5). The observed negative relationship with growth during the previous year may indicate that Walleye exhibit compensatory growth. The relationships with parental sizes and environments may mean that parental contributions to offspring affects cohorts into adulthood, with serious implications for the effects of climate change. Warm winters appear to negatively influence offspring growth performance for many years. Legacy effects had a stronger influence on cohort growth than recent environmental conditions, providing new understanding of how somatic growth is regulated in Lake Erie's Walleye population. Specifically, the parental composition and environment appear important via epigenetic and/or egg-provisioning legacies, with carryover effects modifying growth among years. Ultimately, our findings demonstrate that understanding recent growth in animal populations similar to Lake Erie Walleye may require knowledge of past conditions, including those experienced by parents., (© 2024 The Author(s). Journal of Animal Ecology © 2024 British Ecological Society.)

Automobiles are central to participation in economic, social, and cultural activities in the United States. The ability to drive as one ages is fundamental to the quality of life among older adults. Driving rates decline significantly with age. Researchers using cross-sectional data have studied the reasons former drivers have stopped driving, but few have followed individuals over time to examine changes in relationships among driving cessation, socio-demographics, and health conditions. We used longitudinal data from a national sample of 20,000 observations from the University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to examine relationships among demographic variables, health conditions, and driving reduction and driving cessation. Longitudinal data allow analysis of generational differences in behavior, a major advantage over cross-sectional data which only allow comparisons of different people at one point in time. We found, like many other studies, that personal decisions to limit and eventually stop driving vary with sex, age, and health conditions. In addition, unlike most previous studies, we also found that those relationships differ by birth cohort with younger cohorts less likely to stop and limit their driving than their older counterparts. The findings indicate an evolution in the association between driving cessation and its causes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many governments are aiming to extend working lives by raising the age at which people can claim retirement pensions. This makes it vital to understand how these policies affect retirement decisions. In this paper, I revisit the labor supply effects of a major Australian reform that increased women's pension age from 60 to 65. Atalay and Barrett (2015) studied these effects using repeated household surveys and a differences-in-differences design in which male cohorts form the comparison group. They estimate that the reform increased female labor force participation by 12 percentage points. Using earlier data, I show that the parallel-trends assumption did not hold before the reform because of a strong female-specific trend in participation rates across the relevant cohorts. Accounting for this trend, the estimated effect on female participation falls by two-thirds and becomes statistically insignificant at conventional levels. This highlights the importance of carefully assessing and controlling for trends across cohorts when evaluating pension reforms, which are typically phased in across cohorts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the U.S. Census records, 40% of the population is aged between 35 and 64. This statistic means that a substantial percentage of the nation's population is in the wealth-formation phase of their life cycle and should be saving towards their retirement goals. Hence, the demand for retirement planning is anticipated to increase over the next decade. However, many economists and policymakers are concerned that a substantial number of American households are not well prepared for retirement. The Retirement Confidence Survey of the Employee Benefit Research Institute found that 36% of workers do not have any retirement savings. In particular, Generation X is the cohort that is least prepared for retirement. This research focuses on Generation X (40–54 years old) and explores this cohort's retirement preparedness relative to their Baby Boomer and Millennial peers. The study also models cohort effects and identifies the key factors affecting retirement preparedness. The result indicates that Generation X is better prepared for retirement than Millennials in safer portfolio allocations, but there is no significant difference in retirement adequacy between Gen Xers and Baby Boomers. Income, risk tolerance, and attainment of a college education are positively associated with retirement preparedness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: The main objective of this study was to investigate distributional shifts underlying observed age and cohort differences in mean levels of psychological distress in the 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts. Methods: This study used data from the 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts (n = 24,707). Psychological distress was measured by the Malaise Inventory at ages 23, 33, 42 and 50 in the 1958 cohort and 26, 34, 42 and 46–48 in the 1970 cohort. Results: The shifts in the distribution across age appear to be mainly due to changing proportion of those with moderate symptoms, except for midlife (age 42–50) when we observed polarisation in distress— an increase in proportions of people with no symptoms and multiple symptoms. The elevated levels of distress in the 1970 cohort, compared with the 1958 cohort, appeared to be due to an increase in the proportion of individuals with both moderate and high symptoms. For instance, at age 33/34 42.3% endorsed at least two symptoms in the 1970 cohort vs 24.7% in 1958, resulting in a shift in the entire distribution of distress towards the more severe end of the spectrum. Conclusions: Our study demonstrates the importance of studying not only mean levels of distress over time, but also the underlying shifts in its distribution. Due to the large dispersion of distress scores at any given measurement occasion, understanding the underlying distribution provides a more complete picture of population trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few studies examine nativity disparities in smoking in the U.S., thus a major gap remains in understanding whether immigrant Latinos' smoking prevalence is stable, converging, or diverging, compared with U.S.-born Latinos. This study aimed to disentangle the roles of period changes, duration of U.S. residence, and immigrant arrival cohort in explaining the gap in smoking prevalence between foreign-born and U.S.-born Latinos. Using repeated cross-sectional data spanning 1998-2013 (U.S. National Health Interview Survey), regressions predicted current smoking among foreign-born and U.S.-born Latino men and women (n = 12,492). We contrasted findings from conventional regression analyses that simply include period and duration of residence effects, to two methods of assessing arrival cohort effects: the first accounted for baseline differences in smoking among arrival cohorts, while the second examined smoking probabilities by tracking foreign-born arrival cohorts as they increase their duration of U.S. residence. Findings showed that Latino immigrants maintained lower prevalence of current smoking compared with U.S.-born Latinos over the period 1998-2013, and that longer duration of U.S. residence is associated with lower odds of smoking among men. Two findings are particularly novel: (1) accounting for immigrant arrival cohort dampens the overall protective effect of duration of residence among men; and (2) the earliest arrival cohort of Latino immigrant men experienced the steepest decline in smoking over duration of U.S. residence. Results have methodological and theoretical implications for smoking studies and the Latino mortality paradox.

Digital transformation provides new opportunities for the green development of enterprises. Clarifying the impact and mechanism of digital transformation on enterprise pollution reduction has important policy implications for the synergistic development of digitalization and greenization. This paper explores the impact of digital transformation on enterprise pollution abatement using data from Chinese manufacturing enterprises and fixed effects models. The empirical results show that digital transformation contributes to enterprise pollution reduction. Furthermore, the pollution reduction role of digital transformation is more pronounced in enterprises with high degrees of pollution intensity. Digital transformation acts on pollution reduction through productivity improvement and scale expansion, while a mechanism for green technology innovation does not exist. Additionally, industry attributes and external environment heterogeneity affect the pollution abatement role of digital transformation. Enterprises can achieve stronger pollution abatement from digital transformation when they belong to high-polluting industries, high-tech industries, areas with high environmental regulation (HER), and cohorts. The paper provides new micro evidence that digital transformation promotes pollution reduction, enriches the literature on the environmental impact of digital transformation, and provides beneficial insights for enterprises to drive pollution reduction in the era of the digital economy. • The synergy of digitization and greenerization promotes the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry. • Digital transformation significantly promotes enterprise pollution reduction. • The impact comes from productivity improvement and scale expansion rather than green technology innovation. • Pollution reduction effects vary due to the heterogeneity of industries and the external environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite growing concerns in the UK about social isolation, there remains a lack of data on the extent and time trends of social isolation from longitudinal, population-based studies. There is also little research that assesses the multiple domains of social isolation across the lifecourse and between generations in a holistic way accounting for different contexts. By applying a multi-context, multi-domain framework of social isolation to 5 successive British birth cohorts, we provide conceptual and empirical understanding of social isolation trajectories across the lifecourse and identify potential generational and sex differences in trends. Where data were available, comparable social isolation indicators were generated to enable lifecourse trajectories and cross-generational trends to be explored. Information on isolation was available across the following relational contexts: household i.e., living alone; partnership, family and friends outside the household; education and employment networks; and community engagement. Trajectories were modelled stratified by sex using a multilevel growth curve framework. Data were analysed from 73,847 individuals (48.5% female), in 5 successive cohorts born in 1946 (N = 5,362), 1958 (N = 16,742), 1970 (N = 16,950), 1989-90 (N = 15,562), and 2000–01 (N = 19,231). Exploring a range of social isolation indicators across several contexts provided a nuanced picture of social isolation across the lifecourse and between generations in the UK, with no consistent pattern of increased or decreased isolation over time. For example, more people are living alone, less women are out of education and employment in midlife, more people are volunteering, but fewer people regularly engage in religious activity. It therefore highlights the need to focus on a range of social isolation indicators across contexts to understand how people compensate for specific types of isolation, and to understand structural differences in social configurations in the UK, which may not only define the timing and sequencing of life transitions but also social isolation. • First document of lifecourse social isolation across multiple British generations. • No consistent pattern of increased or decreased isolation over time. • More people living alone, less women out of education and employment in midlife. • More people volunteering, but fewer people regularly engaging in religious activity. • Support for a multi-context, multi-domain approach to studying social isolation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental conditions experienced by individuals early in life can extend into adult phenotypes with potential fitness consequences. Such environmental effects can be relevant for host species affected by parasitism, because poor early life conditions may lower parasite recognition or anti‐parasite defenses and increase the risk of future parasitism. Here we provide a first test of this possibility by using data from a 16‐year study of individually marked female magpie Pica pica hosts for which we know natal and adult environments, occurrence of great spotted cuckoo Clamator glandarius parasitism, egg discrimination ability and life history in detail. Females born in warmer years were more likely to be parasitized at adulthood and produced fewer offspring throughout their life. Egg discrimination behavior and lifespan of magpies were not influenced by the quality of natal environments. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that annual environmental variation promotes cohort effects in magpie hosts that may have an impact on cuckoo–host co‐evolutionary dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Society and developmental theory generally assume that there are wide generational differences in personality. Yet evidence showing historical change in the levels of adult Big Five traits is scarce and particularly so for developmental change. We tracked adult trajectories of personality in 4,732 participants (age: M = 52.93 years, SD = 16.69; 53% female) from the Seattle Longitudinal Study (born 1883–1976) across 50 years. Multilevel models revealed evidence for historical change in personality: At age 56, later-born cohorts exhibited lower levels of maturity-related traits (agreeableness and neuroticism) and higher levels of agency-related traits (extraversion and openness) than earlier-born cohorts. Historical changes in agreeableness and neuroticism were more pronounced among young adults, but changes in openness were less pronounced. Cohort differences in change were rare and were observed only for agreeableness; within-person increases were more pronounced among later-born cohorts. Our results yield the first evidence for historical change in the Big Five across adulthood and point to the roles of delayed social-investment and maturity effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the contribution of age and cohort effects on home-ownership and housing wealth in Turkey. I construct a pseudo-panel data set based on birth-year cohorts by using sixteen waves of the Turkish Statistical Institute Household Budget Surveys from 2003 to 2018. The empirical analysis reveals that young cohorts are less likely to own their homes, but they are more likely to have outstanding housing debt. Moreover, they are as willing to invest in second homes as older cohorts. I estimate a Heckman two-step selection model to distinguish the contribution of the improvement in the quality of new buildings to home values. As a result, I find that cohort effects on home values are significantly larger for young households even after controlling for age effects and the improvement in the quality of new buildings. Thus, the empirical findings show that young cohorts have a stronger housing demand than old cohorts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is part of a Festschrift commemorating the 50th anniversary of the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA). Established in 1970, first as part of the National Institute of Mental Health and later as an independent institute of the National Institutes of Health, NIAAA today is the world's largest funding agency for alcohol research. In addition to its own intramural research program, NIAAA supports the entire spectrum of innovative basic, translational, and clinical research to advance the diagnosis, prevention, and treatment of alcohol use disorder and alcohol-related problems. To celebrate the anniversary, NIAAA hosted a 2-day symposium, "Alcohol Across the Lifespan: 50 Years of Evidence-Based Diagnosis, Prevention, and Treatment Research," devoted to key topics within the field of alcohol research. This article is based on Dr. Keyes' presentation at the event. NIAAA Director George F. Koob, Ph.D., serves as editor of the Festschrift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a microsimulation that explores age, period, and cohort effects in the decline of religiosity in contemporary societies. The model implements a well-known and previously empirically validated theory of secularization that highlights the role of "fuzzy fidelity," i.e., the percentage of a population whose religiosity is moderate (Voas 2009). Validation of the model involved comparing its simulation results to shifts in religiosity over 9 waves of the European Social Survey. Simulation experiments suggest that a cohort effect, based on weakened transmission of religiosity as a function of the social environment, appears to be the best explanation for secularization in the societies studied, both for the population as a whole and for the proportions of religious, fuzzy, and secular people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides new evidence on the dynamics of social capital across the life course and over different periods in urban China. Using three cross-sectional datasets from the Job Search and Social Network survey (1999, 2009, and 2014), this study distinguishes family-centered and work-centered social capital and then constructs age-period-cohort models of social capital. The age effects indicate that social capital stock shows an inverse U shape across the individual life course, with the peak occurring between ages 38 and 42 years old. Period effects suggest a significant increase in social capital stock from 1999 to 2014, during which time family-centered social capital declined, while work-centered social capital was invigorated and became the primary source of social capital for urban residents. Cohort effects indicate that political events and institutional reforms exert profound effects on the accumulation of social capital for different birth cohorts. The birth cohort growing up in 1930–1948 stands out as having relatively high social capital, while social capital underwent a significant decline among those who grew up from 1949 to 1978, followed by rapid growth again among those born after 1979. These conclusions enhance the nuanced understanding of the dynamics of social capital across the micro life course and macro social processes. • The central concern in this paper is how social capital changes over time. This study incorporate trends in social capital changes in both theoretical and empirical analyses into a time framework of age, period, and cohort, and use three periods of data spanning 15 years for empirical analysis. • With regard to the age effect, this study challenges previous findings that social capital declines over life course; instead, social capital shows an inverted U-shaped trend with age, consistent with the expectations of life course theory. • With respect to the period effect, social capital shows a rising trend as a whole, but family-centeredness is declining, and workplace-centeredness is rising, accompanied by China's marketization and industrialization progress. • In terms of generational effects, the political movements and social changes in China since 1949 have had significant and profound impacts on the social capital of different birth cohorts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Previous research in criminology has overlooked that cohort effects on crime should be age-time-specific (Ryder in Am Sociol Rev 30(6):843–861, 1965) and consequently assumed cohort effects to be the same across the life course. The current study addresses these limitations by modeling cohort effects as the differential impacts of social change depending on age groups. With this new operationalization that is closely tied to Ryder's conceptualization, we examine both inter-cohort differences and intra-cohort dynamics in violent crime. Methods: We use the age–period–cohort-interaction (APC-I) model developed by Luo and Hodges (Sociol Methods Res 2020) to analyze the UCR age-specific arrest statistics for robbery, aggravated assaults, and homicide from 1960 to 2014. Specifically, we estimate and test two types of cohort variation: average cohort deviations and life-course dynamics. Results: Our findings reveal varying degrees of cohort deviations at different ages. The early boomers (born between 1945 and 1954) and the late boomers (born between 1955 and 1964) demonstrate different intra-cohort dynamics of robbery arrest, and the violence epidemic cohorts' (born between 1975 and 1984) high risks of homicide arrest appear to be driven by cohort deviations at young ages. Conclusions: The APC-I framework introduced in this study provides new insights into the dynamic aspect of cohort effects on violent crime that have not been examined in the criminological literature. Criminological studies on cohort effects would benefit by shifting away from the problematic assumption of constant and additive cohort effects to the dynamic and interactive approach represented by the APC-I framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a pattern called immune imprinting, individuals gain the strongest immune protection against the influenza strains encountered earliest in life. In many recent examples, differences in early infection history can explain birth year-associated differences in susceptibility (cohort effects). Susceptibility shapes strain fitness, but without a clear conceptual model linking host susceptibility to the identity and order of past infections general conclusions on the evolutionary and epidemic implications of cohort effects are not possible. Failure to differentiate between cohort effects caused by differences in the set, rather than the order (path), of past infections is a current source of confusion. We review and refine hypotheses for path-dependent cohort effects, which include imprinting. We highlight strategies to measure their underlying causes and emergent consequences. Influenza evolves to escape immunity, but antigenic substitutions rarely escape immunity equally in all hosts. Birth cohorts, each composed of hosts with similar infection histories, often differ in susceptibility to new influenza strains. Descriptive studies, which identify cohort-associated differences in susceptibility and sometimes relate them to differences in initial infection, are common. However, the strength and persistence of observed effects varies, and the mechanisms underlying these patterns are ill-defined. Understanding the epidemic and evolutionary impacts of cohort effects is not possible without a clear conceptual model for how these differences arise. We argue that focusing on specific, measurable causes and consequences of cohort effects is the best way to cut through semantic confusion, draw appropriate connections between observed epidemiological examples, and understand their evolutionary implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Examined developmental & cohort effects in body image across the adult lifespan. • Longitudinal - Cohort sequential latent growth curve modelling was utilized. • Body satisfaction increased across the lifespan for men and women. • Cohort effects women: body image appears to be improving. • Men consistently have greater body satisfaction than women. The current study examined patterns of normative change and cohort effects in body image across the male and female adult lifespan. Body satisfaction was assessed in longitudinal data spanning six years, from 2010 to 2015. Cohort sequential latent growth curve modelling was utilized to assess patterns of mean-level change due to both aging and cohort effects in 15,264 participants (62.9 % women) aged between 18–94 years (M = 46.55, SD = 14.24). Results demonstrated a very slight increase in body satisfaction across the lifespan for both men and women. Cohort effects demonstrated that for women aged 54 years and below, all but two cohorts (24–29 and 34–39 years) displayed an upward trajectory in their body satisfaction over the 5-year period of assessment. No consistent cohort effects were evident for men. Finally, men, relative to women, consistently displayed higher levels of body satisfaction across the lifespan. This study provides insights into the trajectory of body image across the lifespan for men and women. The findings also suggest recent (cohort) improvements in body image for women, and potential explanations for this unexpected shift are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Western societies, singlehood has become increasingly normative over historical time. But whether singles are more satisfied nowadays remains unclear. In this preregistered cohort-sequential study, we analyzed data from 2,936 German participants ( M = 21.01 years, SD = 7.60 years) from different birth cohorts. Singlehood satisfaction and life satisfaction were reported annually at two different time periods (2008-2011 and 2018-2021). This design allowed us to compare earlier-born and later-born singles during adolescence (14-20 years), emerging adulthood (24-30 years), and established adulthood (34-40 years). Results from multilevel growth-curve models indicated that adolescent singles born in 2001 to 2003 (vs. 1991-1993) were more often single and more satisfied with singlehood. No cohort-related differences emerged among emerging and established adults. Younger age and lower neuroticism predicted higher satisfaction, regardless of birth cohort. The results highlight the importance of considering both societal and individual factors to understand singles' satisfaction., Competing Interests: Declaration of Conflicting InterestsThe author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

This paper proposes a two-step LASSO based vector autoregressive (2-LVAR) model to forecast mortality rates. Within the VAR framework, recent studies have developed a spatial–temporal autoregressive (STAR) model, in which age-specific mortality rates are related to their own historical values (temporality) and the rates of the neighboring cohorts (spatiality). Despite its desirable age coherence property and the improved forecasting accuracy over the widely used Lee–Carter (LC) model, STAR employs a rather restrictive structure that only allows for non-zero cohort effects of the same cohorts and the neighboring cohorts. To address this limitation, the proposed 2-LVAR model adopts a data-driven principle, as in a sparse VAR (SVAR) model, to offer more flexibility in the parametric structure. A two-step estimation strategy is developed accordingly to resolve the challenging objective function of 2-LVAR, which consists of non-standard L2 and LASSO-type penalties with constraints. Using empirical data from Australia, the United Kingdom, France, and Switzerland, we show that the 2-LVAR model outperforms the LC, STAR, and SVAR models in most of our forecasting results. Further simulation studies confirm this outperformance, and analyses based on life expectancy at birth empirically support the existence of age coherence. The results of this paper will help researchers understand the mortality projections in the long run and improve the reserving/ratemaking accuracy for life insurers.

Since the mid-1990s, the labour force participation of older men and women increased substantially in France. In this paper, we investigate the effect of having a participating wife on the labour market behaviour of her elderly husband. Working with data from the French Labour Force Survey and using the cohort-specific participation rate of women at age 40 as an instrument for their current participation, we find that the magnitude of the causal relationship is strong. The likelihood of husbands' participation increases of about 19 points when their wives are currently active in the labour market. Such findings support the view that some complementarities in leisure exist so that French married men attribute a higher value to leisure when it is shared with their wife. It also suggests that policy makers should take into account both direct and indirect effects when they implement a change in the economic environment of elderly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the growing body of literature on how digital technologies impact child well-being, previous research has provided little evidence on recent digital trends. This paper examines the patterns and effects of digital use on child socioemotional well-being across two cohorts of children grown up ten years apart during the 'digital age': the 1998 cohort (interviewed in 2007/08) and the 2008 cohort (interviewed in 2017/18). Multivariate linear regression models were conducted for these two cohorts from the Growing Up in Ireland (GUI) study, a multi-cohort longitudinal study with rich comparable data on a large sample of 9-year olds (N = 13,203). Results show that (i) in 2017/18 children were more active in digital devices and social media, while in 2007/2008 children spent more time watching TV and adopted less diversified forms of media engagement; (ii) spending more than 3 daily hours on TV/digital activities was associated with significant declines in child socioemotional well-being, while such effects were stronger in 2017/18 than in 2007/08; (iii) media engagement (but not other forms of digital engagement) was associated with moderate declines in socioemotional well-being, both in 2007/08 and in 2017/18; (iv) while children's media and digital engagement differed by the child gender and socioeconomic background, none of these variables moderated the effects of digital use on children's socioemotional well-being, neither in 2007/08 nor in 2017/18. Overall, the study reveals persistence, but also some important changes, in recent trends on children's digital use and its impact on socioemotional well-being in Ireland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate forecasts of mortality rates are essential to various types of demographic research such as population projection, and the pricing of insurance products such as pensions and annuities. Recent studies have considered a spatial temporal autoregressive (STAR) model for the mortality surface, where mortality rates for each age depend (temporally) on their historical values as well as (spatiality) on those of neighboring age cohorts. This model has sound statistical properties including cointegrated dependent variables and the existence of closed-form solutions. Despite its improved forecasting performance over the famous Lee-Carter (LC) model, the constraint that only the effects of the same and neighboring cohorts are significant can be too restrictive. In this study, we adopt a data-driven adaptive weighted structure and propose the adaptive STAR (ASTAR) model. Retaining all the desirable features of the STAR, our model uniformly outperforms the LC and STAR counterparts in terms of forecasting accuracy, when mortality data for ages 0-100 from the UK, France, Italy, Spain, and Japan over the period 1950-2016 are considered. Two sensitivity tests and additional simulation results also lead to robust conclusions. The proposed ASTAR model could therefore be a widely useful tool for modeling and forecasting mortality rates in other contexts, and may be extended to multipopulation modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a design-based approach to identifying cohort effects in APC analyses. Cohort effects arise when one cohort is treated by a unique set of formative socialization experiences, which causes it to differ from other cohorts in relevant outcomes. APC analyses typically compare treated and untreated cohorts from a single population. Our approach introduces a second group-a control group, in which no unit is treated but that is otherwise similar to the first-and adapts difference-in-differences estimation to the APC framework. The approach yields two identification strategies, each based on transparent and testable assumptions. We illustrate how the method works and what is to be gained through three examples. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.