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Context Without urgent action, koalas could be extinct in New South Wales (NSW), Australia by 2050. Despite the key role that community members could play in koala protection, we know little about what might motivate them to engage in these actions. Aims This study surveyed residents (n = 585) of local government areas of far north east NSW to identify demographic and social-psychological factors associated with likelihood of engaging in actions that could help to protect koalas. Methods A survey using a multi-pronged recruitment process was administered to relevant participants. Key results Binary logistic regression analyses revealed that the likelihood of joining a community conservation group was greater in the Byron shire and for those with a stronger environmental identity, more positive attitudes toward koalas and who perceived that others who are important to them take action to protect koalas. Byron residents, those with a stronger environmental identity and those with more knowledge about koalas were also more likely to advocate government for koala protection. Positive attitudes towards koalas and perceptions that others who are important to them take action to protect koalas significantly predicted likelihood of restoring native vegetation on respondents’ properties. Gender emerged as the only significant predictor of likelihood of joining council conservation initiatives. Conclusions These findings provide insights that could help guide the efforts of government and non-government agencies in engaging community members with koala protection. Implications This study identified which factors to target when focusing on koala protection behaviours, and can be used to help guide efforts to build community support for koala protection actions.

We revisited a location to study previously individually marked Tagula Honeyeaters Microptilotis vicina in 2019, 3 years after the original 2016 study on Junet Island, Louisiade Archipelago, Papua New Guinea. Re-encountered Tagula Honeyeaters indicated sedentary behaviour across years and an average annual adult survival rate of ≥0.75. We made the first observations of building and laying at two nests, and recorded nesting habits in the species. Tagula Honeyeaters showed the general trend in the honeyeater family of only the female building the nest and incubating. Nests were similar to those previously observed and to those of related species. Clutch-size in both nests was two and laying was on consecutive days. Eggs were white to off-white, with a ring of liver-brown spots and markings around the larger end. Incubation began on the day that the second egg was laid and lasted 14 days in both nests. Males visited the nest area only after the eggs hatched. At one nest, the nestling period was suspected to be 12 days. These limited observations of the only endemic island representative in Microptilotis indicate that, like plumage characters, breeding parameters remain similar within the genus.

Effective wildlife conservation requires consideration of ecological and social factors, including social acceptability of conservation actions. Using the threatened koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as a case study, we demonstrate a novel, socio-ecological approach for identifying conservation opportunity that spatially connects landscapes with community preferences to prioritize koala recovery strategies at a regional scale. We conceptualize conservation opportunity as the spatial integration of three sustainability criteria—ecological potential, social acceptability, and economic feasibility. The social acceptability criterion was assessed using a crowdsourced spatial survey that identified spatial preferences for koalas and land uses that impact koala conservation. As a novel approach, we addressed important research questions regarding the design, collection, and analysis of crowdsourced mapping data for identifying socially acceptable conservation opportunities. Public preferences for koalas were mapped closer to home, in higher suitable koala habitats than expected, were more pronounced in conservation and natural areas on public lands, and were mapped less frequently in modified agricultural landscapes. When the multiple criteria (ecological, social, and economic) were included in the conservation assessment, we found the social acceptability criterion exerted the greatest influence on spatial conservation priorities. The systematic assessment of social criteria for conservation using spatial surveys provides information that can be integrated with ecological information to prioritize conservation opportunities. Potential enhancements include expanding survey recruitment efforts and using alternative social data collection methods to achieve greater geographic and socio-demographic representation, and augmenting the economic feasibility assessment with private property values and transaction data from voluntary conservation agreements with private landowners.

Myanmar is one of the most forested countries of mainland Southeast Asia and is a globally important biodiversity hotspot. However, forest cover has declined from 58% in 1990 to 44% in 2015. The aim of this paper was to understand the patterns and drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Myanmar since 2005, and to identify possible policy interventions for improving Myanmar’s forest management. Remote sensing derived land cover maps of 2005, 2010 and 2015 were accessed from the Forest Department, Myanmar. Post-classification change detection analysis and cross tabulation were completed using spatial analyst and map algebra tools in ArcGIS (10.6) software. The results showed the overall annual rate of forest cover loss was 2.58% between 2005 and 2010, but declined to 0.97% between 2010 and 2015. The change detection analysis showed that deforestation in Myanmar occurred mainly through the degradation of forest canopy associated with logging rather than forest clearing. We propose that strengthening the protected area system in Myanmar, and community participation in forest conservation and management. There needs to be a reduction in centralisation of forestry management by sharing responsibilities with local governments and the movement away from corruption in the timber trading industry through the formation of local-based small and medium enterprises. We also recommend the development of a forest monitoring program using advanced remote sensing and GIS technologies.

Urban residents face increasing risk of heat stress due to the combined impact of climate change and intensification of the urban heat island (UHI) associated with urban growth. Considering the combined effect of urban growth and climate change is vital to understanding how temperatures in urban areas will change in the future. This study investigated the impact of urban growth and climate change on the UHI and heat stress in a subtropical city (Brisbane, Australia) in the present day (1991–2000) and medium term (2041–2050; RCP8.5) during summer. A control and urban growth scenario was used to compare the temperature increase from climate change alone with the temperature increase from climate change and urban growth. Average and minimum temperatures increased more with climate change and urban growth combined than with climate change alone, indicating that if urban growth is ignored, future urban temperatures could be underestimated. Under climate change alone, rural temperatures increased more than urban temperatures, decreasing the effect of the UHI by 0.4 °C at night and increasing the urban cool island by 0.8 °C during the day. With climate change, the number of hot days and nights doubled in urban and rural areas in 2041–2050 as compared to 1991–2000. The number of hot nights was higher in urban areas and with urban growth. Dangerous heat stress, defined as apparent temperature above 40 °C, increased with climate change and occurred on average 1–2 days every summer during 2041–2050, even in shaded conditions. There was higher temperature increases with urban growth and climate change than with climate change alone, indicating that reducing the effect of the UHI is vital to ensuring urban growth does not increase the heat stress risks that urban residents will face in the future.

Aim: Many conservation efforts now focus on mitigating biodiversity loss due to climate change. While a focus on impacts from mean, long‐term changes in climate is warranted, the vast majority of conservation plans largely ignore another key factor of climate change—changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events. A typology of the full range and severity of ecological responses to extreme events would help underpin tracking of their impacts. Location: Global. Methods: Here, we review 519 observational studies of ecological responses to extreme events between 1941 and 2015. We include responses from amphibians, birds, fish, invertebrates, mammals, plants and reptiles to cyclones, drought, flood, cold waves and heat waves. Results: Negative ecological responses were the most commonly reported, accounting for 57% of all documented responses. There were over 100 cases of a >25% population decline and 31 cases of local extirpation. Sixty per cent of the studies in our review observed ecological responses for more than 1 year, and of the studies that monitored species or ecosystem recovery following exposure to an extreme event, 38% showed species or ecosystems did not recover to pre‐disturbance levels. Main conclusions: Extreme weather and climate events have profound implications for species and ecosystem management. We discuss current conceptual challenges associated with incorporating extreme events into conservation planning efforts, which include how to quantify species sensitivity and adaptive capacity to extreme events, how to account for interactions between extreme events and other stressors, and how to maximize adaptive capacity to more frequent and intense extreme events.

The urban heat island (UHI) has a negative impact on the health of urban residents by increasing average temperatures. The intensity of the UHI effect is influenced by urban geometry and the amount of vegetation cover. This study investigated the impact of urban growth and loss of vegetation cover on the UHI in a subtropical city (Brisbane, Australia) during average and extreme conditions using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model, run at a 1-km spatial resolution for 10 years. The average nighttime temperature increase was 0.7°C for the “Medium Density” urban growth scenario and 1.8°C for the “No Vegetation” scenario. During two widespread extreme heat events, the mean maximum increase in urban temperatures above the Control was between 2.2° and 3.8°C in the No Vegetation scenario and between 0.3° and 1.6°C in the Medium Density urban growth scenario. The results are similar to previous findings for temperate cities, with the intensity of the UHI effect higher at night and during winter than during the day and summer. Vegetation cover had the strongest impact on temperatures, more so than building height and height/width ratio. Maintaining and restoring vegetation, therefore, is a key consideration in mitigating the urban heat island. The large temperature increases found in this study, particularly during extreme heat events, shows the importance of reducing the UHI for protecting the health of urban residents, and this should be a priority in urban landscape planning and design.

Public participatory mapping is a method of crowdsourcing where the lay public can contribute spatial information for a range of applications including conservation planning. When used to collect wildlife observation data, participatory mapping becomes a type of “geographic citizen science” that involves collaboration with members of the public. While the potential of crowdsourcing to assist in wildlife conservation appears to be large, the quality and validity of the observational data collected remain a key concern. In this study, we examined the quality and validity of spatial data collected in a public participatory mapping project implemented in northern New South Wales (Australia) in 2018 where the public was asked to identify and map the location and frequency of koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) sightings using an internet mapping application. The iconic koala is a nationally-listed threatened species and has wide public recognition, making it an ideal test of our approach to examining the value of citizen science for wildlife. We assessed the validity of koala observation data from two perspectives of validity-as-accuracy (positional accuracy and data completeness) and validity-as-credibility (characteristics of spatial data contributors). To assess validity-as-accuracy, we analysed the distribution of citizen observations of koala sightings compared to an expert-derived probability distribution of koalas (likelihood model). To assess validity-as-credibility, we analysed the survey data to determine which participant characteristics increased the credibility of observational data. We found significant spatial association between crowdsourced koala observations and the likelihood model to validate koala locations, but there was under-reporting in more rural, remote areas. Significant variables contributing to accuracy in koala observations included participant knowledge of koalas, age, length of residence, and formal education. We also compared the crowdsourced results to a field-based citizen science koala observation project implemented in the same region and found crowdsourced participatory mapping provided comparable, if not superior results. Crowdsourced koala observations can augment field-based koala research by covering large geographic areas while engaging a broader public in conservation efforts. However, effective geographic citizen science projects require a significant commitment of resources, including the creation of community partnerships, to obtain high quality spatial data.

The continuing use of petrochemicals in mineral nitrogen (N) production may be affected by supply or cost issues and climate agreements. Without mineral N, a larger area of cropland is required to produce the same amount of food, impacting biodiversity. Alternative N sources include solar and wind to power the Haber-Bosch process, and the organic options such as green manures, marine algae and aquatic azolla. Solar power was the most land-efficient renewable source of N, with using a tenth as much land as wind energy, and at least 100th as much land as organic sources of N. In this paper, we developed a decision tree to locate these different sources of N at a global scale, or the first time taking into account their spatial footprint and the impact on terrestrial biodiversity while avoiding impact on albedo and cropland, based on global resource and impact datasets. This produced relatively few areas suitable for solar power in the western Americas, central southern Africa, eastern Asia and southern Australia, with areas most suited to wind at more extreme latitudes. Only about 2% of existing solar power stations are in very suitable locations. In regions such as coastal north Africa and central Asia where solar power is less accessible due to lack of farm income, green manures could be used, however, due to their very large spatial footprint only a small area of low productivity and low biodiversity was suitable for this option. Europe in particular faces challenges because it has access to a relatively small area which is suitable for solar or wind power. If we are to make informed decisions about the sourcing of alternative N supplies in the future, and our energy supply more generally, a decision-making mechanism is needed to take global considerations into account in regional land-use planning.

Design disciplines have a long history of creating well-integrated solutions to challenges which are complex, uncertain and contested by multiple stakeholders. Society faces similar challenges in implementing the Sustainable Development Goals, so design methods hold much potential. While principles of good design are well established, there has been limited integration of design thinking with sustainability science. To advance this integration, we examine the process of designing MetaMAP: an interactive graphic tool for collaborating to understand social–ecological systems and design well-integrated solutions. MetaMAP was created using Research through Design methods which integrate creative and scientific thinking. By applying design thinking, researchers and practitioners from different backgrounds undertook multiple cycles of problem framing, solution development, testing and reflection. The testing was highly collaborative involving over 150 people from diverse disciplines in workshops, case studies, interviews and critique. Reflecting on this process, we discuss design principles and opportunities for integrating design thinking with sustainability science to help achieve Sustainable Development Goals. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s11625-018-0618-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Sustainability challenges rarely align with the conventional boundaries of our disciplines, institutions and means of communication. To address these challenges amid real-world complexity, we need to think holistically and collaborate across disciplines. In this paper, we synthesise three themes: (1) more integrated conceptual frameworks; (2) digital visual communication which provides fluid expression of complex ideas and perceptions; and (3) online networks which can empower sustainability initiatives and communicate them across social and institutional barriers at a global scale. Each of these tools can help to overcome persistent barriers to sustainability. When used together, they provide a strategic basis for the design of digital collaboration platforms for addressing sustainability challenges. Using design thinking, we developed a Synergy Map which identifies relationships among a number of barriers to sustainability and conceptual and digital tools which help to address them. The Map identifies the potential for synthesising these tools into effective digital artefacts. We provide several examples and identify characteristics of particular value for overcoming barriers to sustainability. Combining new theoretical developments in sustainability sciences with recent advances in communication and networking technologies offers substantial potential for advancing sustainability on multiple fronts.

Mammals can serve as an indicator of global climate change impacts on species’ distributions due to the wide range of ecological niches they utilize. Tropical Asia encompasses several biodiversity hotspots, is the largest reservoir of mammalian diversity on earth, and has already experienced the extinction of several mammal species either regionally or locally. Global climate change could become a significant driver of species extinction, either directly or synergistically with other factors, such as habitat loss, agricultural expansion, overexploitation, and land use change. Despite the variability of climatic regimes across tropical Asia, the potential impacts of climate change on continental-scale distributions of mammals have not been examined. To address this issue, we developed habitat suitability models for four threatened large mammals (Ursus thibetanus, Elephas maximus, Hoolock hoolock, and Panthera tigris tigris), across their entire distributions in Asia. We used presence-only distribution records and nine bioclimatic and environmental variables and built species-specific habitat suitability models using a maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). We used a moderate and an extreme climate scenario (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) and three time steps: current, 2050, and 2070. Our results suggest that changes in annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, precipitation, and temperature seasonality could reduce suitable habitat for these mammals and therefore increase their extinction risks. However, several patches of stable habitat are projected to persist through the late twenty-first century, and these climate change refugia areas can be managed as an important strategy for conservation of the mammal species and the maintenance of biodiversity in the face of ongoing climate change. In this context, we recommend the following steps for the conservation of global mammal populations: (i) define the spatial extent (local, regional, or continental scale) of the target mammals, (ii) identify and prioritize climate change refugial areas following ecological niche models or other methods based on biological data, and (iii) implement management actions by analyzing current management tools and the strategies required (e.g., habitat restoration or assisted migration for prioritized species) to achieve long-term conservation goals.

There is growing evidence that global climate change is significantly altering forest ecosystems, and will continue to do so in the future. Changes in mean climate and climate extremes such as drought, storms, cyclones and wildfires can fundamentally alter species distribution, composition, phenology, and forest structure. This study reviewed the available evidence of climate change impacts on tropical forests. We selected 85 studies based on two selection criterias and recorded the impacts of climate change on different areas of tropical forests. The majority of the studies examined climate change impacts on forest structure and composition (72%), with few considering phenology (8%). This study focused on tropical Asian forests because of their high biodiversity values and their vulnerability to the interacting threats of forest fragmentation and climate change. The difference map (2080–2100 compared with 1980–2000) indicates a significant acceleration of mean warming (5–9 °C) and increase in mean precipitation (0.5–1 mm day-1) in the Himalayan Highlands, Tibetan Plateau and arid regions of South Asia. Based on this review, two issues were posed to direct future tropical forest research: (1) effect of climate change on the extinction risk of tropical trees and (2) integration of climate change risks into forest policy and management.

Little is known about the drivers and governance strategies of appropriation of urban nature in the global south. We compare urban land-grabbing in the city of Colombo, Sri Lanka, with broader understanding of rural land-grabbing in the developing world. We show that the colonial legacy of appropriation and alteration of urban wetlands in Colombo has attained new heights in the neo-liberal period. This cyclical process has caused acute irreversible damage to the wetland ecosystem and a vast majority of the urban poor, with the marginalised continuing to suffer dispossession and environmental hazard. In recognition of the inherent limitations of ‘uncontrollable’ hybrid ecologies, potent social struggles have emerged to resist the continued appropriation agenda. As this cycle is perpetuated, broader social struggles for democratic urban governance have overtaken the pursuit of narrow political-economic goals and internal policy reform.

Cities have elevated temperatures compared to rural areas, a phenomenon known as the “urban heat island”. Higher temperatures increase the risk of heat-related mortality, which will be exacerbated by climate change. To examine the impact of climate change and urban growth on future urban temperatures and the potential for increased heat stress on urban residents. We conducted a systematic review of scientific articles from Jan 2000 to May 2016. The majority (n = 49, = 86%) of studies examined climate change and the urban heat island in isolation, with few (8) considering their combined effect. Urban growth was found to have a large impact on local temperatures, in some cases by up to 5 °C in North-east USA. In some locations climate change increased the heat island, such as Chicago and Beijing, and in others decreased it, such as Paris and Brussels. When the relative impact of both factors was considered, the temperature increase associated with the urban heat island was always higher. Few studies (9) considered heat stress and its consequences for urban populations. Important contributors to urban temperatures, such as variation in urban density and anthropogenic heat release, were often excluded from studies. We identify a need for an increased research focus on (1) urban growth impact on the urban heat island in climate change studies; (2) heat stress; and, (3) variation in urban density and its impacts on anthropogenic heat. Focussing on only one factor, climate change or urban growth, risks underestimating future urban temperatures and hampering adaptation.

Modelling the future suitable climate space for tree species has become a widely used tool for forest management planning under global climate change. Teak (Tectona grandis) is one of the most valuable tropical hardwood species in the international timber market, and natural teak forests are distributed from India through Myanmar, Laos and Thailand. The extents of teak forests are shrinking due to deforestation and the local impacts of global climate change. However, the direct impacts of climate changes on the continental-scale distributions of native and non-native teak have not been examined. In this study, we developed a species distribution model for teak across its entire native distribution in tropical Asia, and its non-native distribution in Bangladesh. We used presence-only records of trees and twelve environmental variables that were most representative for current teak distributions in South and Southeast Asia. MaxEnt (maximum entropy) models were used to model the distributions of teak under current and future climate scenarios. We found that land use/land cover change and elevation were the two most important variables explaining the current and future distributions of native and non-native teak in tropical Asia. Changes in annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and annual mean actual evapotranspiration may result in shifts in the distributions of teak across tropical Asia. We discuss the implications for the conservation of critical teak habitats, forest management planning, and risks of biological invasion that may occur due to its cultivation in non-native ranges.

Two ecologically and economically important, and threatened Dipterocarp trees Sal (Shorea robusta) and Garjan (Dipterocarpus turbinatus) form mono‐specific canopies in dry deciduous, moist deciduous, evergreen, and semievergreen forests across South Asia and continental parts of Southeast Asia. They provide valuable timber and play an important role in the economy of many Asian countries. However, both Dipterocarp trees are threatened by continuing forest clearing, habitat alteration, and global climate change. While climatic regimes in the Asian tropics are changing, research on climate change‐driven shifts in the distribution of tropical Asian trees is limited. We applied a bioclimatic modeling approach to these two Dipterocarp trees Sal and Garjan. We used presence‐only records for the tree species, five bioclimatic variables, and selected two climatic scenarios (RCP4.5: an optimistic scenario and RCP8.5: a pessimistic scenario) and three global climate models (GCMs) to encompass the full range of variation in the models. We modeled climate space suitability for both species, projected to 2070, using a climate envelope modeling tool “MaxEnt” (the maximum entropy algorithm). Annual precipitation was the key bioclimatic variable in all GCMs for explaining the current and future distributions of Sal and Garjan (Sal: 49.97 ± 1.33; Garjan: 37.63 ± 1.19). Our models predict that suitable climate space for Sal will decline by 24% and 34% (the mean of the three GCMs) by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In contrast, the consequences of imminent climate change appear less severe for Garjan, with a decline of 17% and 27% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The findings of this study can be used to set conservation guidelines for Sal and Garjan by identifying vulnerable habitats in the region. In addition, the natural habitats of Sal and Garjan can be categorized as low to high risk under changing climates where artificial regeneration should be undertaken for forest restoration.

Both deforestation and El Nino events influence Borneo's climate, but their interaction is not well understood. Borneo's native forest cover decreased by 37.1% between 1980 and 2015 with large areas being replaced by oil palm and a mosaic of plantations and regrowth vegetation. The island is also affected by El Nino events, resulting in severe droughts and fires. Here, we used a high-resolution climate model to simulate and evaluate how deforestation and El Nino episodes interact during the 1980-2016 period. Simulations revealed that deforestation resulted in a warmer and drier climate with the most pronounced changes in the extensively deforested regions of eastern and southern Borneo. Deforestation-linked impacts were more pronounced under El Nino than neutral (non El Nino/La Nina) conditions. Changes in climate mainly corresponded with areas with the most deforestation. There was a significant increase in the frequency of hotter and drier climatic extremes, with the probability distribution of temperature, humidity and aridity shifting from narrow to a broadening distribution. For example, the frequency of 90th percentile of the hot temperatures (defined as average monthly temperatures >28.9oC) during the dry season increased from 10% for neutral conditions for the 1980 forest cover to 22% for neutral conditions for the 2015 forest cover. For strong El Nino events, the frequency increased from 15.6% to 32.5%. Replacement of intact native forest with oil palm resulted in increased frequency of hot temperatures to 49% for neutral and 74% for El Nino conditions. Hotter and drier conditions are likely to increase tree mortality and forest flammability (and fire-driven deforestation). The continued reduction and fragmentation of Borneo's forest cover diminishes the ability to moderate regional climate impacted by larger scale and other regional/local human climate forcings.

In original publication of the article, the Figure 1 and Figure 11 are published incorrectly. The correct figures should be as follows.

Primates are an important component of biodiversity in tropical regions. However, many studies on the effects of habitat change on primates ignore the relative influence of landscape composition and configuration. This study addresses the question: how important are landscape-scale forest area and composition relative to patch-scale (1–1080 ha) and site-scale (transect of 1 km) habitat variables for the occupancy and abundance of four primate species in the Colombian Llanos. Using a randomly stratified survey design, 81 fragments were surveyed for primate occupancy and abundance. We used zero-inflated models to test the relative influence of landscape-scale, patch-scale and site-scale variables on occupancy and abundance for each species. A 95% confidence set of models was constructed using the cumulative Akaike weight for each model and the relative importance of each set of variables calculated for each primate species. Occupancy was determined by a combination of site-scale, patch-scale and landscape-scale variables but this varied substantially among the primate species. Our study highlights the importance of managing primates at a range of scales that considers the relative importance of site-, patch- and landscape-scale variables.

Infectious diseases are important in the dynamics of many wildlife populations, but there is limited understanding of how landscape change influences susceptibility to disease. We aimed to quantify the time-delayed influence of spatial and temporal components of landscape change and climate variability on the prevalence of chlamydiosis in koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in southeast Queensland, Australia. We used data collected over 14 years (n = 9078 records) from a koala hospital along with time-lagged measures of landscape change and rainfall to conduct spatial and temporal analyses of the influence of landscape and environmental variables on prevalence of chlamydiosis and koala body condition. Areas with more suitable habitat were associated with higher levels of disease prevalence and better body condition, indicating that koalas were less likely to be impacted by chlamydiosis. More intact landscapes with higher proportions of total habitat are associated with a reduction in prevalence of chlamydiosis and a decrease in body condition. Increased annual rainfall contributed to a decrease in prevalence of chlamydiosis and an increase in body condition. Urbanization was associated with an increase in disease, however the effects of urban landscape change and climate variability on chlamydiosis may not manifest until several years later when overt disease impacts the population via effects upon body condition and reproductive success. Our study highlights the importance of effects of landscape change and climate variability on disease prevalence in wildlife. This recognition is essential for long-term conservation planning, especially as disease often interacts with other threats.

Invasive predators are identified as an important threatening process implicated in native species decline and extinction in Australia. This study aimed at developing our understanding of landscape-level spatial patterns in the red fox diet. We established prey importance based on dietary composition of red fox scats, and related this information to landscape structure. The relationship between scat composition and the frequency of detection and spatial patterns of occurrence of small mammals based on survey data from the same region was also evaluated using ordination analyses. We found that native vertebrates, dominated by Sminthopsinae, were the most important prey. However, Mus musculus were detected significantly more than Sminthopsinae across the region. Sminthopsinae were detected most frequently in traps in grazing landscapes; however, red fox scats from grazing landscapes were dominated by invertebrates. We propose these patterns may be partially driven by M. musculus abundance attracting predation pressure to the landscape and Sminthopsinae exhibiting prey naivety resulting in their disproportional representation in red fox scats.

To mitigate climate change at local, regional, and global scales, we must begin to think beyond greenhouse gases.

Community-based conservation programs often target local communities with the aim of altering their behaviours to achieve conservation outcomes. However, these programs can underestimate the complexities of human behaviour, and hence jeopardize their effectiveness. We applied a realist synthesis to 17 community-based conservation programs in developing countries that quantitatively measured behavioural changes linked to conservation outcomes. A realist synthesis identifies the critical mechanisms operating within a program and the outcome(s) caused by these mechanisms, and also identifies how the context affects these mechanisms. Our synthesis identified three main mechanisms that best explain the reasoning of individuals to engage in conservation behaviours: i) conservation livelihood provides economic value; ii) conservation provides benefits that outweigh losses of curtailing previous behaviour, and iii) giving local authority over resources creates empowerment. The success of each mechanism was affected by various context factors, including the proportion of income generated for the family, capacity to engage in livelihood, cultural acceptability of livelihood and the livelihood being logistically achievable to partake in. Despite conservation education being a common strategy, there was very little evidence provided of the reasoning of individuals and subsequent behaviour changes from education programs. This is the first application of a realist synthesis to community-based conservation programs. The results advance our understanding of the decision-making processes of communities subject to such programs, and highlight how different contexts influence changes in conservation behaviour. Future reporting of behavioural outcomes and the associated reasoning of individuals and communities to engage, as well as the relevant contextual data, is required for more informed and effective design of community-based conservation programs.

Summary Vegetation vertical structure is important for biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. In cities, however, while variation in the spatial extent and distribution of vegetation has been widely investigated, vertical vegetation structure and its potential drivers have not. Understanding how vegetation vertical structure varies across cities and identifying the potential drivers of this variation will improve the management of urban vegetation for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We used light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data to quantify the vertical structure of vegetation across Brisbane, Australia, at 1-km2 and 1-ha spatial scales and investigated how this structure varied in response to biophysical, socioeconomic, urban form and landscape structure variables. Using model selection techniques, we found that landscape structure variables related to tree cover (tree cover extent and spatial configuration) best explained the vegetation vertical structure at both spatial scales. Biophysical and urban form variables were also important, but only in combination with landscape structure. Mean vegetation vertical complexity, foliage projective cover and canopy height at a site all decreased as the treed proportion of the surrounding urban landscape decreased. In general, these vertical structure variables also increased where patches of vegetation were clustered together spatially. Synthesis and applications. Using light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data and model selection techniques, we show that the extent and vertical structure of urban vegetation are not independent and that reduced extent and increased fragmentation of urban vegetation are associated with simplification of its vertical structure. If common, this relationship means that managing urban vegetation for biodiversity and ecosystem services should not focus solely on the amount of tree cover or green space present across cities, but also on identifying where interventions to improve vegetation vertical complexity are required. Our study provides important insights into where these locations may be in cities.

Plant succession theory underpins the development of strategies for the conservation and regeneration of native communities. Current theory has been based largely on space-for-time rather than long-term monitoring data, which have known limitations. There is general consensus that more site-specific studies are needed to corroborate existing hypotheses. The target vegetation is a brigalow (Acacia harpophylla, Mimosaceae) forest in one of Australia's most endangered ecosystems, which was cleared and burnt in 1963. Forty quadrats were placed systematically within each of six 20 m × 20 m permanent plots. Presence, density and per cent canopy cover data were recorded for each species at 18 times over 46 years. Brigalow dominated the original vegetation, assumed dominance soon after clearing through massive root suckering and remained dominant throughout the study. It achieved maximum density within two years when severe intraspecific competition led to self-thinning. After approximately 30 years, vacant niches appeared. Woody understorey species were slow to recolonise. Species richness and other diversity indices increased rapidly to a maximum after 2–4 years, declined until the 30th year when they again increased. This was the pattern of the species-rich herbaceous layer; woody species showed a steady monotonic increase. The ‘hump-shaped’ relationship between cover (biomass) and species richness was confirmed. This example fits the inhibition model for which few examples have been described. While the long-term successional pattern is slightly confounded by climatic variability preceding sample surveys, this space-for-time study not only supports a bimodal pattern of diversity over time but also indicates that the relative species richness of the herbaceous and woody layers may explain the extreme variability reported in the literature.

Community-based conservation programs in developing countries are often based on the assumption that heteronomous motivation (e.g., extrinsic incentives such as economic rewards and pressure or coercion to act) will incite local communities to adopt conservation behaviors. However, this may not be as effective or sustainable as autonomous motivations (e.g., an intrinsic desire to act due to inherent enjoyment or self-identification with a behavior and through freedom of choice). We analyzed the comparative effectiveness of heteronomous versus autonomous approaches to community-based conservation programs through a case study of Sumatran orangutan (Pongo abelii) conservation in 3 villages in Indonesia. Each village had a different conservation program design. We surveyed people (n = 240) to determine their motivations for and behavior changes relative to orangutan and orangutan habitat (forest) protection. Heteronomous motivations (e.g., income from tourism) led to greater self-reporting of behavior change toward orangutan protection. However, they did not change self-reported behavior toward forest (i.e., orangutan habitat) protection. The most effective approach to creating self-reported behavior change throughout the community was a combination of autonomous and heteronomous motivations. Individuals who were heteronomously motivated to protect the orangutan were more likely to have changed attitudes than to have changed their self-reported behavior. These findings demonstrate that the current paradigm of motivating communities in developing countries to adopt conservation behaviors primarily through monetary incentives and rewards should consider integrating autonomous motivational techniques that promote the intrinsic values of conservation. Such a combination has a greater potential to achieve sustainable and cost-effective conservation outcomes. Our results highlight the importance of using in-depth sociopsychological analyses to inform the design and implementation of community-based conservation programs.

The spatial and temporal heterogeneity of climate, soils, topography and vegetation control the water and energy balances among catchments. Two well-known hydrological theories underpinning these processes are the Budyko framework and the Dunne diagram. Relating the scaling of water–energy balances (Budyko) and runoff generation mechanisms (Dunne) raises some important catchment comparison questions, namely: (i) how do streamflow characteristics vary according to the annual water and energy balances?; (ii) to what extent do biophysical drivers of runoff explain the observed streamflow variability?; and (iii) are there quantifiable process overlaps between these two approaches, and can they offer insights into the mechanics of catchment co-evolution? This study addresses these questions by analysing daily streamflow and precipitation time series data to quantify hydrological similarity across 355 catchments located along a tropical–temperate climatic gradient in eastern Australia. We used eight hydrological metrics to describe the hydrological response over a 33-year period (1980–2013). Hierarchical cluster, ordination analysis, the Budyko framework, and generalized additive models were used to evaluate hydrological similarity, extract the dominant response, and examine how the landscape and climatic characteristics of catchments influence the dominant streamflow response. The catchments were classified into five clusters based on the analysis of their hydrological characteristics and similarity, which vary along the annual water and energy balances gradient in the Budyko framework. Furthermore, we show that the streamflow similarity is explained by six catchment-specific biophysical factors that overlap with those described by the Dunne diagram for runoff generation, which in this case have the following order of relative importance: (i) Dryness Index; (ii) Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation; (iii) Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity; (iv) Soil Depth; (v) Maximum Slope and (vi) Fraction of Woody Vegetation Cover. The research advances our understanding of the role of biophysical controls on hydrologic similarity and formal process links between the Budyko Framework and Dunne diagram of runoff mechanisms.

Global biodiversity loss is driven principally by the expansion of agriculture. This expansion has slowed over the last 50 years as agricultural production has intensified, largely through the use of petrochemical-based fertilisers. The mid-2000s saw a transition where oil production became unresponsive to the increased demand for petrochemicals, pushing up their price and that of their end-products, including fertilisers. Such oil supply constraints threaten to reverse previous agricultural intensification gains and increase pressure for the conversion of native ecosystems. Price-driven land and food speculation and the search for alternative energy sources also have the potential to increase the demand for land. This study aimed to measure the change in the rate of deforestation and to map the resultant impact on biodiversity as oil production became inelastic in 2005. Globally, an additional 290,000 km2 of forests was cleared in the period 2007–12 compared with 2000–2006, which is a net increase of 29% between the two periods. The areas of increased forest loss broadly corresponded with the areas of highest biodiversity. We tested for, but found little correspondence with large-scale, corporate land acquisitions. Statistically significant hotspots of increased threat to biodiversity generally lie in a band through the tropics, particularly in south-east Asia, Africa and Central America, with fertiliser consumption affected in hotspot areas. A review of the drivers in these hotspots indicated that non-subsistence growth factors underpin most land-cover change. We conclude that conservation efforts need to mitigate pressures from growth and agricultural extensification, and be aware that the rate of loss increased with oil supply constraint in tropical and sub-tropical regions, coinciding with the areas of highest biodiversity.

South American biomes are increasingly affected by land use/land cover change. However, the climatic impacts of this phenomenon are still not well understood. In this paper, we model vegetation–climate interactions with a focus on four main biomes distributed in four key regions: The Atlantic Forest, the Cerrado, the Dry Chaco, and the Chilean Matorral ecosystems. We applied a three member ensemble climate model simulation for the period 1981–2010 (30 years) at 25 km resolution over the focus regions to quantify the changes in the regional climate resulting from historical deforestation. The results of computed modelling experiments show significant changes in surface fluxes, temperature and moisture in all regions. For instance, simulated temperature changes were stronger in the Cerrado and the Chilean Matorral with an increase of between 0.7 and 1.4 °C. Changes in the hydrological cycle revealed high regional variability. The results showed consistent significant decreases in relative humidity and soil moisture, and increases in potential evapotranspiration across biomes, yet without conclusive changes in precipitation. These impacts were more significant during the dry season, which resulted to be drier and warmer after deforestation.

International audience

Positive (synergistic) and negative (trade-off) relationships among ecosystem services are influenced by drivers of change, such as policy interventions and environmental variability, and the mechanisms that link these drivers to ecosystem service outcomes. Failure to account for these drivers and mechanisms can result in poorly informed management decisions and reduced ecosystem service provision. Here, we review the literature to determine the extent to which drivers and mechanisms are considered in assessments of ecosystem service relationships. We show that only 19% of assessments explicitly identify the drivers and mechanisms that lead to ecosystem service relationships. While the proportion of assessments considering drivers has increased over time, most of these studies only implicitly consider the drivers of ecosystem service relationships. We recommend more assessments explicitly identify drivers of trade-offs and synergies, which can be achieved through a greater uptake of causal inference and process-based models, to ensure effective management of ecosystem services. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-018-1127-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Both observational and modeling studies clearly demonstrate that land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) play an important biogeophysical and biogeochemical role in the climate system from the landscape to regional and even continental scales. Without comprehensively considering these impacts, an adequate response to the threats posed by human intervention into the climate system will not be adequate. Public policy plays an important role in shaping local- to national-scale land-use practices. An array of national policies has been developed to influence the nature and spatial extent of LULCC. Observational evidence suggests that these policies, in addition to international trade treaties and protocols, have direct effects on LULCC and thus the climate system. However, these policies, agreements, and protocols fail to adequately recognize these impacts. To make these more effective and thus to minimize climatic impacts, we propose several recommendations: 1) translating international treaties and protocols into national policies and actions to ensure positive climate outcomes; 2) updating international protocols to reflect advancement in climate–LULCC science; 3) continuing to invest in the measurements, databases, reporting, and verification activities associated with LULCC and LULCC-relevant climate monitoring; and 4) reshaping Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation+ (REDD+) to fully account for the multiscale biogeophysical and biogeochemical impacts of LULCC on the climate system.

Ecological restoration of modified and degraded landscapes is an important challenge for the 21st century, with potential for major gains in the recovery of biodiversity. However, there is a general lack of agreement between plant- and animal-based approaches to restoration, both in theory and practice. Here, we review these approaches, identify limitations from failing to effectively integrate their different perspectives, and suggest ways to improve outcomes for biodiversity recovery in agricultural landscapes. We highlight the need to strengthen collaboration between plant and animal ecologists, to overcome disciplinary and cultural differences, and to achieve a more unified approach to restoration ecology. Explicit consideration of key ecosystem functions, the need to plan at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and the importance of plant–animal interactions can provide a bridge between plant- and animal-based methods. A systematic approach to restoration planning is critical to achieving effective biodiversity outcomes while meeting long-term social and economic needs.

Aim: The koala is a widely distributed Australian marsupial with regional populations that are in rapid decline, are stable or have increased in size. This study examined whether it is possible to use expert elicitation to estimate abundance and trends of populations of this species. Diverse opinions exist about estimates of abundance and, consequently, the status of populations. Location: Eastern and south-eastern Australia Methods: Using a structured, four-step question format, a panel of 15 experts estimated population sizes of koalas and changes in those sizes for bioregions within four states. They provided their lowest plausible estimate, highest plausible estimate, best estimate and their degree of confidence that the true values were contained within these upper and lower estimates. We derived estimates of the mean population size of koalas and associated uncertainties for each bioregion and state. Results: On the basis of estimates of mean population sizes for each bioregion and state, we estimated that the total number of koalas for Australia is 329,000 (range 144,000-605,000) with an estimated average decline of 24% over the past three generations and the next three generations. Estimated percentage of loss in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia was 53%, 26%, 14% and 3%, respectively. Main conclusions: It was not necessary to achieve high levels of certainty or consensus among experts before making informed estimates. A quantitative, scientific method for deriving estimates of koala populations and trends was possible, in the absence of empirical data on abundances.

Anthropogenic heat release is a key component of the urban heat island. However, it is often excluded from studies of the urban heat island because reliable estimates are not available. This omission is important because anthropogenic heat can contribute up to 4 degrees C to the urban heat island, and increases heat stress to urban residents. The exclusion of anthropogenic heat means the urban heat is-land effect on temperatures may be under-estimated. Here we estimate anthropogenic heat for four Australian capital cities (Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide) to inform the management of the urban heat island in a changing climate. Anthropogenic heat release was calculated using 2011 population census data and an inventory of hourly traffic volume, building electricity and gas use. Melbourne had the highest annual daily average anthropogenic heat emissions, which reached 376 W/m(2) in the city centre during the daytime, while Brisbane's emissions were 261 W/m2 and Sydney's were 256 W/m(2). Adelaide had the lowest emissions, with a daily average of 39 W/m(2) in the city centre. Emissions varied within and among the four cities and decreased rapidly with distance from the city centre, to < 5 W/m(2) at 20 km from the city in Brisbane, and 15 km in Adelaide. The highest emissions were found in the city centres during working hours. The peak emissions reached in the centre of Melbourne are similar to the peak emissions in London and Tokyo, where anthropogenic heat is a large component of the urban heat island. This indicates that anthropogenic heat could be an important contributor to the urban heat island in Australian capital cities, and needs to be considered in climate adaptation studies. This is an important problem because climate change, combined with an ageing population and urban growth, could double the deaths from heatwaves in Australian cities over the next 40 years.

Human induced climate change is having a dramatic impact on global biodiversity and insular assemblages are particularly vulnerable. However, the cascading impacts of tropical cyclones on insular ecosystems are poorly understood and expected to grow with the increasing intensity of these events associated with future anthropogenic climate change. This problem is particularly relevant to islands of the Southwest Pacific, which are cyclone-prone and support high levels of endemic biodiversity. In this perspective, we present new information from a case study of the indirect effects of a tropical cyclone (Ita) on forest extent and integrity from an endemic hotspot, the Louisiade Archipelago of Papua New Guinea. We highlight how a cyclone event can be a catalyst for human-coping strategies that increase pressures on forest ecosystems and expose them to invasive plant species. These changes represent a major threat to forest-dependent bird species, many of which are endemic. Rather than being an isolated example, these observations provide an insight into human responses to climate change over cyclone-prone tropical islands/regions where human populations are reliant upon subsistence agriculture and the resources provided by forests. The cumulative anthropogenic impacts on forest ecosystems are potentially catastrophic to the future of island biodiversity and greater than the long-term shifts in mean climate.

Restoration activities are limited by funding and logistics. To optimise restoration efforts, we need to evaluate the effects of management actions on wildlife populations. In general, site-scale habitat quality has a stronger influence on habitat use by fauna than the landscape context. However, this is yet to be empirically tested for reptiles. In this study, we used model averaging and hierarchical partitioning to compare the relative importance of site-scale habitat quality and landscape context for reptile communities and species in a regenerating woodland landscape in semi-arid Queensland, Australia. Reptiles were surveyed at 55 sites. Habitat quality was assessed using relevant variables based on published habitat-associations for each species or group. Landscape context was assessed using binary, mosaic and continuous descriptions of vegetation cover within 250 m of the survey sites. We found that, in comparison to site-scale habitat quality, the composition of the surrounding landscape had little influence on reptiles, despite testing three alternative approaches for describing landscape context. Nine out of eleven reptile species and groups responded to variation in habitat quality, whereas just one species responded to variation in landscape context. Species richness, diversity, and abundance were unaffected by landscape context, but were influenced by site-scale structural complexity and vegetation type. Our findings suggest that reptiles, in general, benefit from conservation and restoration activities that focus on improving site-scale habitat quality, with increasing the amount and connectivity of surrounding vegetation of lesser value. This study also highlights the importance of better understanding the drivers of reptile distributions and abundances in dryland landscapes.

• Public submissions to the Australian Senate inquiry into the status of the koala were reviewed.

The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus), one of the world's most iconic faunal species, was recently listed under Australian government legislation as vulnerable in the northern states of Queensland and New South Wales and in the Australian Capital Territory, but not in the southern states of Victoria and South Australia. This review synthesises empirical evidence of regional koala population trends, their conservation outlook, and associated policy challenges. Population declines are common in the northern half of the koala's range, where habitat loss, hotter droughts, disease, dog attacks and vehicle collisions are the major threats. In contrast, some southern populations are locally overabundant and are now subject to managed declines. The koala presents the problem of managing a wide-ranging species that now primarily occurs in human-modified landscapes, some of which are rapidly urbanising or subject to large-scale agricultural and mining developments. Climate change is a major threat to both northern and southern populations. The implementation of policy to conserve remaining koala habitat and restore degraded habitat is critical to the success of koala conservation strategies, but habitat conservation alone will not resolve the issues of koala conservation. There needs to be concerted effort to reduce the incidence of dog attack and road-related mortality, disease prevalence and severity, and take into account new threats of climate change and mining. Many of the complex conservation and policy challenges identified here have broader significance for other species whose population trends, and the nature of the threatening processes, vary from region to region, and through time.

Habitat loss and fragmentation are significant threats for primate species worldwide. However, few attempts have been made to look for general patterns in primate responses to habitat loss and fragmentation, or whether these may be associated with species’ traits. We conducted a review of published literature on effects of patch size to quantify the effect of a reduction in this predictor on primates, and to determine whether these effects depend on species’ traits. The effects of patch size on seven response variables (density, parasite prevalence and diversity, presence, genetic diversity, time spent feeding, resting and movement), were extracted from 135 papers and compared across six species traits (diet specialisation, social structure, body size, home range size, group size and dispersal ability). We found that density, parasitic prevalence and diversity and time spent feeding were positively associated with a reduction in patch size, while species’ presence and genetic diversity were negatively associated. Time spent resting and moving did not show clear patterns. We found little evidence that the effect of patch size varies consistently with traits. This study provides important evidence for the consistent effect of patch size on a range of factors that influence the dynamics of primate populations. However, there is a need to move beyond quantifying patch size effects alone and to quantify the effects of changes occurring at broader landscape scales. This would allow more holistic primate conservation strategies to be developed across whole landscapes rather than being focussed on the management of individual patches.

Land use change effects have emerged as an important area of global bioenergy sustainability policy and research. ‘Underutilised agricultural land’ has been previously proposed as a potential option for future bioenergy feedstock production that may minimise the environmental and social challenges of land use change. However, this has not been well tested to date. Our research aims to evaluate whether conversion of these lands to selected bioenergy crops can lead to favourable environmental outcomes for eight indicators related to water quantity and quality, and terrestrial biodiversity. A spatially explicit evaluation framework based on GIS was developed to quantify the environmental effects of land use change. The land use change scenarios, established in a case study region in subtropical Queensland, Australia, were for the production of Pongamia and two native eucalypt species (Spotted gum and Chinchilla white gum) on (i) existing ‘underutilised’ open grazing areas, (ii) existing ‘underutilised’ forested grazing areas, and (iii) all available ‘underutilised agricultural land’ in the case study catchment, under both low and high management intensity. We found that environmental benefits can be gained in scenarios where (i) open grazing areas (e.g., pastures) were used; (ii) native woody perennial bioenergy crops were planted; and (iii) the new plantations were under low management intensity. Other scenarios resulted in reduced environmental outcomes. The results flagged the importance of careful planning and management strategies, and the need for future bioenergy policy to provide more detailed prescriptions concerning land use planning and management if ‘underutilised agricultural lands’ are used for future bioenergy crop production.

Rainfall intensity is predicted to increase under a changing climate, leading to increased risks of hillslope erosion, downstream sedimentation and flooding. For many catchments used for grazing and agricultural land uses, it will become increasingly important to maintain ecohydrological functioning despite climatic extremes. One means to achieve this is through strategic reforestation using locally endemic species, in spatial configurations that effectively intercept, retain or and redistribute overland flows. This paper adopts a modelling approach for investigating the potential of one such design termed “integrated vegetation bands” (IVB), to increase the retention of runoff across steep hillslopes, particularly in the sub-tropics where rainstorms are becoming increasingly intense. A spatially distributed simulation model (MIKE-SHE) was applied to a steep, grazed catchment (Maronghi Creek catchment, Southeast Queensland, Australia) to compare stormwater runoff characteristics between: (1) the existing pasture land cover, and (2) a series of hypothetical IVB added across this pasture land. The IVB were approximately 20 m wide, and configured at 5% gradient towards ridgelines. Results for estimates of overland flow depth and infiltration (spatial), and accumulative water balance (temporal), confirm that the area of hillslope retaining &gt, 10 mm/day more runoff increased by 22% under IVB compared to the pasture land use. Excluding the IVB themselves, the area of hillslope where runoff retention increased was 11%. During the most intense rainfall, IVB held up to 25% greater water depth and had 10% greater infiltration at the hillslope scale. At the sub-catchment scale, discharge decreased by 7% and infiltration increased by 23%. The findings for sub-tropical landscapes presented here are consistent with studies conducted in temperate regions. Based on the results of this preliminary modelling work, the IVB concept has been established as a paired-catchment field trial in a high rainfall catchment in Southeast Queensland, Australia.

Forest use practices such as logging, lopping of tree branches for fodder, and grazing do not reduce forest area but disturb forest structure and impact biodiversity. Although such forest disturbances can be key determinants of the biota occupying a site, rarely is the interaction between disturbance intensity and landscape context considered, despite its relevance to conservation management. We investigated the influence of site-and landscape-level habitat characteristics on birds, and explored whether the effects of site-level disturbance on bird richness varied with forest extent in lowland landscapes in Nepal. While extractive uses reduced forest structural complexity and altered the avifaunal community of a site, the intensity of such effects depended on the extent of forest in the surrounding landscape (19.6 km 2 ). The extent of forest, large tree density, and tree canopy cover were important predictors for all bird response groups. However, the effect of forest extent on bird richness was stronger for sites with greater disturbance intensity. Managing and restoring landscapes to support greater forest cover may not only have a positive direct effect on bird conservation, but may also help to compensate for site-level disturbance, such as characterises multiple-use forests worldwide.