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Independent India's multilateral strategy was designed defensively as a means to provide the country with some leeway in an intensely competitive bipolar world. Today, India casts itself as an emerging [...]

Energy and climate change are two important areas in which there is much more cooperation than competition between China and India. After a few years of trying to outbid each [...]

The accelerating rates of international trade, travel, and transport in the latter half of the twentieth century have led to the progressive mixing of biota from across the world and the number of species introduced to new regions continues to increase. The importance of biogeographic, climatic, economic, and demographic factors as drivers of this trend is increasingly being realized but as yet there is no consensus regarding their relative importance. Whereas little may be done to mitigate the effects of geography and climate on invasions, a wider range of options may exist to moderate the impacts of economic and demographic drivers. Here we use the most recent data available from Europe to partition between macroecological, economic, and demographic variables the variation in alien species richness of bryophytes, fungi, vascular plants, terrestrial insects, aquatic invertebrates, fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. Only national wealth and human population density were statistically significant predictors in the majority of models when analyzed jointly with climate, geography, and land cover. The economic and demographic variables reflect the intensity of human activities and integrate the effect of factors that directly determine the outcome of invasion such as propagule pressure, pathways of introduction, eutrophication, and the intensity of anthropogenic disturbance. The strong influence of economic and demographic variables on the levels of invasion by alien species demonstrates that future solutions to the problem of biological invasions at a national scale lie in mitigating the negative environmental consequences of human activities that generate wealth and by promoting more sustainable population growth. climate | economy | exotic plants and animals | geography | prediction doi/10.1073/pnas.1002314107

Byline: Brian C. O'Neill (1), Warren Sanderson (1,2) Abstract: The prospect of learning about various uncertainties relevant to analyses of the climate change issue is important because it can affect estimates of the costs of both damages and mitigation, and it can influence the optimal timing of emissions reductions. Baseline scenarios representing future emissions in the absence of mitigation are one of the major sources of uncertainty. Here we investigate how fast we might realistically expect to learn about the outlook for long-term population growth, as one determinant of future baseline emissions. That is, we estimate how long it might take to substantially revise current estimates of the likelihood of various population size outcomes over the twenty-first century. We draw on recent work showing that, because population growth is path dependent, we can learn about the long term outlook by waiting to observe how population changes in the short term. We then explore the implications of uncertainty and of this learning potential for mitigation costs and for optimal emissions. Using a simple model, we show that uncertainty in population growth translates into an uncertainty in the optimal tax rate of about $200/tC by 2050 for a range of stabilization levels. When learning is taken into account, it allows for mitigation strategies to change in response to new information, leading to a slight reduction in the expected value of mitigation costs, and a substantial reduction in the likelihood of high cost outcomes. We also find that while learning can lead to large revisions over the next few decades in anticipated population growth, this potential does not imply large changes in near-term optimal emissions reductions. Results suggest that further work on the potential for learning about other determinants of emissions could have larger effects on expected mitigation costs. Author Affiliation: (1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria (2) State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY, 11794-4384, USA (3) Institute for the Study of Society and Environment, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA Article History: Registration Date: 21/03/2008 Received Date: 25/06/2007 Accepted Date: 20/02/2008 Online Date: 10/06/2008

Byline: Brian C. O'Neill (1,2) Author Affiliation: (1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria (2) Institute for the Study of Society and Environment (ISSE), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 80307-3000, USA Article History: Registration Date: 23/05/2008 Received Date: 18/04/2007 Accepted Date: 22/05/2008 Online Date: 03/07/2008

Byline: Axel Michaelowa (1), Katharina Michaelowa (1) Abstract: We analyze the interaction of climate and development policy that has taken place since the early 1990s. Increasing dissatisfaction about the results of traditional development cooperation and the appeal of climate policy as a new policy field led to a rapid reorientation of aid flows. At the turn of the century, over 7% of aid flows were spent on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. However, the contribution of emissions mitigation projects to the central development objective of poverty reduction as specified in the Millennium Development Goals is limited and other project types are likely to be much more effective. Adaptation to climate change can be expected to have higher synergies with poverty alleviation than mitigation, primarily through its impact on health, the conservation of arable land and the protection against natural disasters. An analysis of the Clean Development Mechanism shows that projects addressing the poor directly are very rare even small renewable energy projects in rural areas tend to benefit rich farmers and the urban population. Use of development aid for CDM projects and / or their preparation via capacity building is thus clearly not warranted. We further analyze whether the use of development aid for climate policy could be justified as a countermeasure against the emission increase related to successful development itself. However, countries that are achieving an improvement of human development from a low level are unlikely to increase their energy consumption substantially. Only at a level where the middle class expands rapidly, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions soar. Thus targeting middle class energy consumption by appliance efficiency standards and public transport-friendly urban planning are the most effective measures to address developing country emissions. Rural renewable energy provision in poor countries has a much higher impact on poverty, but a much lower impact on greenhouse gas emissions. We conclude that while there are valid reasons for long-term collaboration with emerging economies on greenhouse gas mitigation, there should be a separate budget line for such activities to avoid 'obfuscation' of a decline of resources aimed at poverty alleviation. Nevertheless, mitigation will remain attractive for donors because it ensures quick disbursements and relatively simple measures of success. Moreover, mitigation activities in developing countries provide politicians in industrialized countries with a welcome strategy to divert the attention of their constituencies from the lack of success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions domestically. Author Affiliation: (1) Institute for Political Science, University of Zurich, Muhlegasse 21, CH-8001, Zurich, Switzerland Article History: Registration Date: 20/04/2007 Received Date: 17/02/2006 Accepted Date: 01/12/2006 Online Date: 30/05/2007

Byline: Alexander Thompson (1) Abstract: This article analyzes climate change from the perspective of international politics. In the anarchy of the international system, various cooperation problems have stalled the formation of an effective climate regime at the international level. Obstacles occur at three stages of regime formation: the bargaining stage, the transition stage, and the implementation stage. The importance of the transition stage of cooperation, which takes place between the signing of an agreement and its entry into force, has been overlooked by international relations scholars and is particularly important in the climate case. The article assesses the possibility of applying `adaptive management' principles to climate change as a partial response to these political obstacles. While such an approach has significant appeal given the uncertainty surrounding the human-climate interface, its experimental, top-down characteristics are not politically feasible at the international level. I recommend certain modifications of existing institutions and practices to improve international information sharing and facilitate efficient learning. These changes would serve to promote a decentralized and passive -- and thus politically viable -- version of adaptive management, an effective approach to dealing with climate change at the global level. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Political Science, Ohio State University, 2140 Derby Hall, 154 North Oval Mall, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA Article History: Registration Date: 14/02/2006 Received Date: 25/05/2004 Accepted Date: 01/02/2006 Online Date: 01/09/2006

During the negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol, Brazil proposed allocating the greenhouse gas emission reductions of Annex I Parties according to the relative effect of a country's historical emissions on global temperature increase. This paper analyses the impact of scientific uncertainties and of different options in policy implementation (policy choices) on the contribution of countries' historical emissions to indicators of historical responsibility for climate change. The influence of policy choices was found to be at least as large as the impact of the scientific uncertainties analysed here. Building on this, the paper then proceeds to explore the implications of applying the Brazilian Proposal as a climate regime for differentiation of future commitments on the global scale combined with an income threshold for participation of the non-Annex I regions. Under stringent climate targets, such a regime leads to high emission reductions for Annex I regions by 2050, in particular for Europe and Japan. The income threshold assumptions strongly affect the Annex I reductions, even more than the impact of another burden-sharing key. A variant of the Brazilian Proposal, allocating emission reductions on the basis of cumulative emissions since 1990, would lead to a more balanced distribution of emission reductions.

In this paper, I explore the Australian Government's approach to international cooperation regarding global climate change from its emergence as an international political issue in the late 1980s to the present. In particular, I reflect on the ethical assumptions underpinning Australia's approach, and the ethical arguments invoked to justify Australia's stance on climate change. I argue that Australia's position has regressed from support for the central ethical principles (here defined as distributive and retributive justice) underpinning the climate change regime to an ultimate rejection of these principles. This regression is concerning for what it tells us about the Howard Government's conception of ethical responsibility in global politics. Further, and in light of the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, it is concerning given its potential to undermine meaningful international cooperation on a complex but pressing environmental issue.

An exploration on the knowledge-based processes influenced by international regimes on policy coordination in China is presented. Knowledge-based has two meanings such as the scientific factor of causing specialization in the policy coordination process and international normative factors, and it is argued that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) facilitates the development of policy coordination in China based upon knowledge-based aspects.

We explore the long-run impact of the Kyoto Protocol commitments to limit greenhouse gas emissions under various assumptions about the international spillover arising from actions led by the industrialised countries. International spillover comprises many complex processes including substitution due to price effects, diffusion of technology innovations, and policy and political spillovers. We represent these in terms of their aggregate impact on emission intensities over the next century. Limiting industrialised country emissions alone has limited environmental benefit if there is no international spillover; in our base case atmospheric concentrations by the end of the century rise to 730 ppm. However, this implies a large divergence of emission intensities, contrary to both empirical long term aggregate trends, and to identifiable influences towards convergence associated with economic globalisation. In contrast, if spillover leads to convergence of emission intensities by 2100, atmospheric concentrations are kept to below 560 ppm and are close to stabilising. We argue that zero or negative international spillover, as assumed in many analyses, is not credible; we estimate the most likely range for the international spillover parameter in our model to be 0.5-1.0. For our base scenario this would imply a mean global average temperature change from pre-industrial levels by 2100 of 2.7-3.4[degrees]C instead of 4.2[degrees]C, and rising at only 0.15-0.29[degrees]C/decade instead of 0.45[degrees]C/decade. Long-run sea-level rise is greatly curtailed. The regional benefits to the industrialised countries are also magnified because of the spillover to developing county emissions. Although the aggregate degree of spillover is uncertain, the available evidence suggests that it will be important and environmentally beneficial in aggregate. Spillover will help to spread the global effectiveness of the Kyoto first period and subsequent commitments, and deserves much further scrutiny.

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol establishes an international institutional framework for domestic responses to climate change that links emission targets for developed countries to international market mechanisms. Although these `flexible mechanisms' allow developed countries some leeway in how they meet their commitments to reduce greenhouse gases, the protocol also establishes a normative framework that directs domestic policy responses along certain paths. Applying insights from sociological institutionalism and constructivism in international relations, this article argues first, that the climate change regime reflects and further institutionalizes the prevailing international normative structure in the environmental issue area, characterized as `liberal environmentalism.' Second, these norms, as embodied in the climate change regime, have enabled and constrained climate change policy development in Canada, one of the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gases per capita. International norms can shape or redefine domestic interests, enable policies in conformity with those norms, and create normative pressures for change by linking with extant domestic and foreign policy norms. Uncovering this international institutional-domestic policy interaction resolves the paradox of Canada's promotion of commitments and mechanisms consistent with its domestic interests and institutional constraints, but eventual commitment to action well beyond what those constraints dictate. This commitment continues despite Kyoto's uncertain future. The findings also point to lacunae in the literature on regime compliance and effectiveness more broadly, especially its dominant rationalist variant.

Nives Dolsak received a joint Ph.D. from the School of Public and Environmental Affairs and the Department of Political Science, Indiana University, Bloomington. She is currently a post-doctoral research associate with Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis, Indiana University, Bloomington., ********** This article analyzes factors affecting countries' commitment to mitigating global climate change within the scope of existing international institutions. The commitment level is operationalized as an ordinal variable ranging [...]

The United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies provides much in terms of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations. Researchers in this paper present concepts and ideas underpinning the chapter Coastal Zones of the UNEP.

New strategies have to be developed because the Kyoto international conference on reducing greenhouse gases only accomplished short-term goals and failed to stabilize the accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Presently, on taxes and tradable permits have been employed. Both are effective ideas but also have their own deficiencies. One hypothetical protocol requires Annex I countries to eliminate and take control of carbon from all new fossil fuel power plants and synthetic fuel plants beginning service after 2020.