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The intensifying effects of climate change have led to increased flooding, even in desert regions, resulting in significant socio-economic and ecological impacts. This study analyzes the causes and consequences of flooding in the Zhem River basin using data from ground stations, including Kazhydromet, and satellite platforms such as USGS FEWS NET and Copernicus. Spatial analyses conducted in ArcGIS utilized classified raster data to map the dynamics of flooding, snow cover, vegetation, and soil conditions. This enabled a geoecological analysis of flood damage on the vital components of the local landscape. Results show that flooding in the Zhem River basin was driven by heavy winter precipitation, rapid snowmelt, and a sharp rise in spring temperatures. The flood damaged Kulsary city and also harmed the region's soil, vegetation, and wildlife. In July 2024, the flooded sail area tripled compared to the same period in 2023. Additionally, the area of barren land or temporary water bodies (pools) formed three months after the water receded also tripled, increasing from 84.9 km2 to 275.7 km2. This study highlights the critical need for continued research on the long-term environmental effects of flooding and the development of adaptive management strategies for sustainable regional development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Urban areas are a significant and rapidly expanding part of the global landscape. Urban expansion occurs alongside climate change, with both linked to declines in native species. However, urban environments can offer alternative resources during extreme climatic events such as droughts. Aims: We sought to identify bird species that had an increased presence in the major urban center of south-west Western Australia during a climate anomaly characterized by record low rainfall and high temperatures. Methods: Using eBird data, we analyzed changes in the reporting rates of all bird species in the period from January 2019 to August 2024. Generalized linear models were used to assess the influence of cumulative 6-month, 12-month, and 18-month rainfall on species reporting rates. Key results: Reporting rates increased dramatically (up to nine times higher than average) around the time of the drought, before reducing back to the average once the drought was broken for four species: (1) the black-shouldered kite; (2) the black-tailed native-hen; (3) the tawny-crowned honeyeater; and (4) the western spinebill. Cumulative 6-month rainfall was a strong predictor for the raptor and the two honeyeaters. Other similar species showed no significant change in reporting rate, suggesting the effect is highly species dependent. Conclusions: Multiple different types of birds may utilize urban areas during drought events. Further research is needed to identify what drives movement of wildlife in response to such events, and the type of urban resources the birds are using. Implications: Urban ecosystems should be integrated into broader conservation plans to support species through the interacting challenges posed by climate change and urbanization. Urban areas are expanding rapidly, leading to habitat and biodiversity loss. However, they may offer resources during environmental stressors like drought. Our study in south-west Western Australia found dramatic increases in reporting rates for four bird species during a climate anomaly, highlighting their adaptive behavioural responses and the potential of urban areas as refuges. Photograph by Harry Moore. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing frequency of extreme climate events may significantly alter the species composition, structure, and functionality of ecosystems, thereby diminishing their stability and resilience. This study draws on temperature and precipitation data from 53 meteorological stations across Mongolia, covering the period from 1983 to 2016, along with MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from 2001 to 2016. The climate anomaly method and the curvature method of cumulative NDVI logistic curves were employed to identify years of extreme climate events and to extract the start of the growing season (SOS) in Mongolia. Furthermore, the study assessed the impact of extreme climate events on the SOS across different vegetation types and evaluated the sensitivity of the SOS to extreme climate indices. The study results show that, compared to the multi-year average green-up period from 2001 to 2016, extreme climate events significantly impact the SOS. Extreme dryness advanced the SOS by 6.9 days, extreme wetness by 2.5 days, and extreme warmth by 13.2 days, while extreme cold delayed the SOS by 1.2 days. During extreme drought events, the sensitivity of SOS to TN90p (warm nights) was the highest; in extremely wet years, the sensitivity of SOS to TX10p (cool days) was the strongest; in extreme warm events, SOS was most sensitive to TX90p (warm days); and during extreme cold events, SOS was most sensitive to TNx (maximum night temperature). Overall, the SOS was most sensitive to extreme temperature indices during extreme climate events, with a predominantly negative sensitivity. The response and sensitivity of SOS to extreme climate events varied across different vegetation types. This is crucial for understanding the dynamic changes of ecosystems and assessing potential ecological risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensifying effects of climate change have led to increased flooding, even in desert regions, resulting in significant socio-economic and ecological impacts. This study analyzes the causes and consequences of flooding in the Zhem River basin using data from ground stations, including Kazhydromet, and satellite platforms such as USGS FEWS NET and Copernicus. Spatial analyses conducted in ArcGIS utilized classified raster data to map the dynamics of flooding, snow cover, vegetation, and soil conditions. This enabled a geoecological analysis of flood damage on the vital components of the local landscape. Results show that flooding in the Zhem River basin was driven by heavy winter precipitation, rapid snowmelt, and a sharp rise in spring temperatures. The flood damaged Kulsary city and also harmed the region’s soil, vegetation, and wildlife. In July 2024, the flooded sail area tripled compared to the same period in 2023. Additionally, the area of barren land or temporary water bodies (pools) formed three months after the water receded also tripled, increasing from 84.9 km2 to 275.7 km2. This study highlights the critical need for continued research on the long-term environmental effects of flooding and the development of adaptive management strategies for sustainable regional development.

A major restriction in predicting plant community response to future climate change is a lack of long-term data needed to properly assess species and community response to climate and identify a baseline to detect climate anomalies. Here, we use a 106-year dataset on a Sonoran Desert plant community to test the role of extreme temperature and precipitation anomalies on community dynamics at the decadal scale and over time. Additionally, we tested the climate sensitivity of 39 desert plant species and whether sensitivity was associated with growth form, longevity, geographic range, or local dominance. We found that desert plant communities had shifted directionally over the 106 years, but the climate had little influence on this directional change primarily due to nonlinear shifts in precipitation anomalies. Decadal-scale climate had the largest impact on species richness, species relative density, and total plant cover, explaining up to 26%, 45%, and 55% of the variance in each, respectively. Drought and the interaction between the frequency of freeze events and above-average summer precipitation were among the most influential climate factors. Increased drought frequency and wetter periods with frequent freeze events led to larger reductions in total plant cover, species richness, and the relative densities of dominant subshrubs Ambrosia deltoidea and Encelia farinosa. More than 80% of the tested species were sensitive to climate, but sensitivity was not associated with a species' local dominance, longevity, geographic range, or growth form. Some species appear to exhibit demographic buffering, where when they have a higher sensitivity to drought, they also tend to have a higher sensitivity to favorable (i.e., wetter and hotter) conditions. Overall, our results suggest that, while decadal-scale climate variation substantially impacts these desert plant communities, directional change in temperature over the last century has had little impact due to the relative importance of precipitation and drought. With projections of increased drought in this region, we may see reductions in total vegetation cover and species richness due to the loss of species, possibly through a breakdown in their ability to demographically buffer climatic variation, potentially changing community dynamics through a change in facilitative and competitive processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing, 2023–2024 El Niño appears to become a strong event, possibly comparable to the other strong El Niño episodes on record. In itself, and because it coincides with grave tensions – economic, political and environmental across the world – the phenomenon could have major climatic, social, and economic consequences. This Opinion article considers the scientific information available, explores the possible climatic consequences, and assesses the impacts on global food security. The case of India, one of the main agricultural and most populated country in the world, is considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of the responses and feedbacks of vegetation dynamics to interannual climate anomalies in the semiarid area of north China is lacking. This study addresses this issue through climate modelling for 1991–2006 with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, into which a locally empirical vegetation dynamic (VED) scheme was implemented. The VED scheme was built on the basis of regression models of the leaf area index (LAI), green vegetation fraction (GVF), and surface albedo (ALB) with ambient temperature and humidity as independent variables. Using the update WRF model, the climate simulations were carried out with turning on and off VED, respectively. By comparing the simulations outputs with each other, we find that the interannual variability of precipitation from simulations with turning on VED is larger than that from simulations with turning off VED. The larger interannual variability of precipitation could be explained by VED feedback. Vegetation growth would be more vigorous, as a response, under the more precipitation, because which brings more available water. In turn, vigorous vegetation leads to more evapotranspiration and, hence, precipitable water; as a result, there would be more precipitation. It is reversed for the years with less precipitation. Such interactions between vegetation and precipitation could be summarized as positive feedback loops. This study suggests that the interannual precipitation variability can be enlarged by VED through positive evapotranspiration–precipitation feedback. It is therefore necessary to consider the vegetation dynamics for future downscaled regional climate predictions to pursue more reliable interannual climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As climate and land-use changes threatens biodiversity, the identification of refugia areas for species becomes a crucial strategy in conservation planning. Here, we integrate climate change anomaly with a land-use change model both projected for 2050 to identify refugia areas for 103 bird species that occur in the Brazilian Cerrado. We found that 13% of the Cerrado may serve as refugia for the bird species. In contrast, nearly 35% of the biome might become areas of high risk for those species. Most species (74%) will held from 34% to 85% of their current geographic distribution in areas with less native vegetation, but with low climate anomaly. Apart from the protection of the refugia areas, we suggest restoration of native vegetation in regions that are likely to maintain climate conditions more adequate in the future. These areas should be prioritized to protect places with higher species richness and ease the establishment of corridors that would support climate-induced dispersal from high risk areas to suitable ones. Approaches that allow for the identification and future protection of refugia are fundamental to guarantee the conservation of biodiversity faced with climate change and rapid land-use changes that already taking place.

The laeb season struck some coastal areas in the southern part of Java that occurred as an impact of climate anomalies. This condition is experienced by the fishermen in Puger Kulon village, Puger sub-district, especially fishermen who catch Lemuru and Benggol fish due to the difficulties to get fish when the unsuitable sea conditions. This condition causes fishermen to experience difficulties in maintaining social resilience that can affect the lives of their families. The research aims to decide the resilience of the Jukung fishermen in the current laeb by formulating the utilization of livelihood assets to keep the lives of fishermen. The Data is collected using three methods, namely interviews, observations and documentation studies. The key informant is deliberately determined that Jukung fishermen and supporting informant are the wives of fishermen and the staff of TPI. The data is analyzed by using Miles and Huberman. The validity method uses triangulation and source techniques. The result show that 1) Jukung fishermen will resilien during the Laeb season when the Jukung fishermen can use their livelihood assets both in household assets as well as in the living system of Jukung fishermen. Livelihood assets consist of human capital, natural capital, physical capital, financial capital, and social capital. The fishermen need to reduce or minimize capital in certain conditions in order to resilient without causing a new burden and vulnerability for Jukung fishermen in Puger Kulon village.

Abstract Background As climate research continues to highlight the global shifts in temperature and precipitation, more research is needed to understand how climate anomalies impact human health outcomes. In this paper, we analyze one of the paths through which climate anomalies affect health (in particular, child’s health) within one of poorest countries in the world (Honduras). Methods Using the GPS location of the household, we link information on child health and house amenities from the Honduras Demographic Health Survey 2011–2012 dataset (a nationally representative sample) with climate data (1981–2012) from the Climate Research Unit (CRU TS3.21). We use generalized estimating equations for binary logistic models and spatial association to analyze these data. Results We show that 1) areas experiencing significant temperature anomalies are also the ones with the worst child respiratory problems and 2) in households with poor amenities – such as access to sanitation and clean water, children tend to have a high incidence of respiratory diseases and diarrhea . Conclusions We conclude that, as climate change increases the incidence of climate anomalies, tackling in advance those household environmental factors responsible for poor child health outcomes (better sanitation and clean cooking fuel) can prevent a further deterioration of children’s health in Honduras.

There were continuous positive Arctic Oscillation index (AOI) and large-scale weather and climate anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in the winter and spring of 2019/2020, and the relationship between these anomalies is an important issue for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictability. This study shows that an AOI event with splitting characteristics occurred in the Northern Hemisphere and that there was a gap between the periods in event, which has not been observed in any of the 12 previous positive AOI events. The 3 stages of upward propagating planetary wave (UPPW) variation caused the gap between the periods. First, in early November, the westerly flow from the troposphere to the stratosphere weakened, resulting in persistent weak UPPWs that allowed a strong polar vortex to form. Then, the two strong UPPWs in January and early February caused the original westerlies to decelerate and induced warming in the lower stratosphere. However, the UPPWs caused only moderate changes in the geopotential height and temperature due to the strong polar vortex that had formed in the previous stage. This moderate AOI decline resulted in the conditions that divided the positive event into two periods. Finally, the low-level westerlies became stronger and strengthened the UPPWs into the stable stratosphere, which ended the second positive AOI period in late March. The role of zonal circulation anomalies (ZCA) in the upper stratosphere as metrics of and intermediates in UPPW-AO interactions is revealed in this study. The typical ZCA development mode was identified by statistical analysis and a composite treatment based on eight historical positive AOI events. In this mode, when strong UPPWs occur and lead to the consequent propagation of the ZCA from the stratosphere to the troposphere, the geopotential height field in the lower troposphere changes away from a typical AO mode; eventually, the AOI becomes abnormal. The temperature anomaly and ZCA produced in the two positive AOI periods during the winter and spring of 2019/2020 led to increasing precipitation in the eastern polar region, northern Asia, and areas along 60°N latitude.

Background: As climate research continues to highlight the global shifts in temperature and precipitation, more research is needed to understand how climate anomalies impact human health outcomes. In this paper, we analyze one of the paths through which climate anomalies affect health (in particular, child's health) within one of poorest countries in the world (Honduras).Methods: Using the GPS location of the household, we link information on child health and house amenities from the Honduras Demographic Health Survey 2011-2012 dataset (a nationally representative sample) with climate data (1981-2012) from the Climate Research Unit (CRU TS3.21). We use generalized estimating equations for binary logistic models and spatial association to analyze these data.Results: We show that 1) areas experiencing significant temperature anomalies are also the ones with the worst child respiratory problems and 2) in households with poor amenities - such as access to sanitation and clean water, children tend to have a high incidence of respiratory diseases and diarrhea .Conclusions: We conclude that, as climate change increases the incidence of climate anomalies, tackling in advance those household environmental factors responsible for poor child health outcomes (better sanitation and clean cooking fuel) can prevent a further deterioration of children's health in Honduras. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Developing a measurement to quantify vegetation diversity at large spatial scales. • Integrating resistance and resilience into one indicator to estimate stability. • Ecosystem stability varies dramatically with elevations and vegetation types. • Vegetation diversity can enhance ecosystem stability at large spatial scales. The unprecedented climate change over the past decades is likely to have ubiquitous and profound impacts on ecosystems. Assessing the vegetation response and ecosystem stability to climate variability is of great importance for developing more sustainable strategies in ecosystem management. Different types of vegetation respond to climate disturbances in various ways and the insurance hypothesis states that biodiversity is able to improve ecosystem stability, so there is a compelling need to further test whether diversity of vegetation composition could increase stability at large scales. In this study, we estimated the response of stability in a comprehensive and accurate metric of the ecosystem to short-term climate anomalies by combining resistance and resilience using an autoregressive modeling method in the Taihang Mountains, an important geographical demarcation line in north China. Our results showed that ecosystem stability differed dramatically with elevations and vegetation types. Mid-elevation zones at the altitude between 500 and 2000 m were particularly stable. However, high-elevation zones (above 2000 m) and low-elevation zones (below 500 m) were comparatively vulnerable. Trade-offs between resistance and resilience were widely observed and stability was largely determined by resilience, especially for ecosystems lied below the elevation of 2000 m. Among all vegetation types, steppes and shrubs were much more stable under climate fluctuations. In contrast, broad-leaf forests had the lowest stability, which was only higher than the cultivated crops. Stability was significantly correlated with the diversity of vegetation composition, a confirmation of insurance effects at large spatial scales. This implies that the vegetation diversity at large spatial scales can enhance the ability of ecosystems to maintain stabilization under climatic fluctuations or recover quickly from climate disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Late Holocene was characterized by several centennial-scale climate oscillations including the Roman Warm Period, the Dark Ages Cold Period, the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. The detection and investigation of such climate anomalies requires paleoclimate archives with an accurate chronology as well as a high temporal resolution. Here, we present 230Th/U-dated high-resolution multi-proxy records (δ13C, δ18O and trace elements) for the last 2500 years of four speleothems from Bunker Cave and the Herbstlabyrinth cave system in Germany. The multi-proxy data of all four speleothems show evidence of two warm and two cold phases during the last 2500 years, which coincide with the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period, as well as the Dark Ages Cold Period and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During these four cold and warm periods, the δ18O and δ13C records of all four speleothems and the Mg concentration of the speleothems Bu4 (Bunker Cave) and TV1 (Herbstlabyrinth cave system) show common features and are thus interpreted to be related to past climate variability. Comparison with other paleoclimate records suggests a strong influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation at the two caves sites, which is reflected by warm and humid conditions during the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period, and cold and dry climate during the Dark Ages Cold period and the Little Ice Age. The Mg records of speleothems Bu1 (Bunker Cave) and NG01 (Herbstlabyrinth) as well as the inconsistent patterns of Sr, Ba and P suggests that the processes controlling the abundance of these trace elements are dominated by site-specific effects rather than being related to supra-regional climate variability.

Highlights • Drought evolutions during 2009–2011 over Southwest China are revisited. • Roles of precipitation and ET 0 anomalies are quantified with a separation method. • ET 0 's impacts can be comparable to precipitation's, especially at monthly scale. • A reference framework is proposed to comprehensively understand drought evolutions. Abstract With intensifying climate change, droughts over Southwest China (SWC) are drawing increasing interest. The droughts of 2009–2011 have attracted special concern. However, the roles of atmospheric evaporative demand [reflected by reference evapotranspiration (ET 0)] and precipitation (P) anomalies in drought evolutions are still unclear. To that end, we revisited the evolution of the 2009–2011 SWC meteorological droughts quantitatively and comprehensively by quantifying the ET 0 and P impacts. In terms of three drought parameters [i.e., drought intensity (DI), area (DA), and duration (DD)], SWC experienced the second most severe drought of the 1961–2012 period in 2009. Evident differences existed among the drought conditions in different months, i.e., more severe droughts occurred in February–March 2009, September 2009 to March 2010, and June–October 2011. Based on the annual means over drought regions, the 2009 and 2011 DI (DA) could be attributed to lower P, but the P and ET 0 impacts [P, ET 0 , and P-and-ET 0 (which reflects drought occurrence due to their combined impacts only)] were comparable in 2010. In addition, P reduction was responsible for DD during 2009–2011. Except in January–March, which were dominated mostly by P, DI (DA) was generally dominated by ET 0 (ET 0 or P-and-ET 0) over the three years. While P dominated spatially and temporally for the majority of the 36 months for DI (DD), some areas were mainly affected by ET 0 (ET 0 or P-and-ET 0). Therefore, to better understand drought evolutions and improve drought monitoring and forecasting, the impacts of ET 0 anomalies should be fully considered. The results of this study provide an important reference framework for comprehensively understanding the underlying mechanisms of droughts not only in SWC but also in other regions around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated a community-managed irrigation system, the Wang hilltop pond irrigation system (WHPIS) in Guangdong, China. Via a field survey and case study, this paper describes the WHPIS's two-stage process of evolutionary governance since the 1960s. First, it explains how the WHPIS achieved 50 years of successful self-governance and robust operation. Then, based on the requirements for adaptive governance outlined by Dietz et al. (2003), it addresses how the WHPIS, when faced with a climate-anomaly, has achieved robustness through institutional change. It finds that with strong social capital based on lineage events, the community, working in partnership with the local government, collectively revised investment, maintenance, and water distribution rules, and developed a new patroller rule. These new rules were effectively enforced by the community through social capital, which enabled the WHPIS to adapt to the climate anomaly. Last, this study concludes that a long-term self-governing irrigation system disturbed by abrupt change can be restored to a robust state via institutional measures enabling adaptive governance. Strong social capital enables a community to absorb the external power from the local government and internalize it, enforce incremental rule changes, and efficiently achieve a robust irrigation system subject to adaptive governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal and interannual dynamics of bioluminescence intensity and succession of the major phytoplankton taxonomic groups were analyzed using the six-year monitoring of Crimean coastal waters (the northern Black Sea) in 2009–2014. Monitoring program included regular CTD and bioluminescence intensity casts in the upper 60 m layer by means of "Salpa-M" sonde accompanied with phytoplankton sampling from subsurface (∼0.2 m) and from the layer of maximal bioluminescence intensity. Years with anomalous warm and cold preceding fall-winter periods were defined on the basis of remotely sensed monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and long-term records on coastal SST measuring station. It was shown that succession of phytoplankton and net vertical bioluminescence patterns in subsequent spring-summer seasons depend upon the SST anomaly during preceding fall-winter period. In "cold" years a minimal bioluminescence intensity associated with a diminished biomass and species abundance of luminous dinoflagellates as well as diatoms and dinoflagellates groups as a whole were observed. A number of luminous dinoflagellate species dropped out of spring phytoplankton community (e.g., Scrippsiella cf. acuminata). As a result, a typical spring peak of bioluminescence in the upper mixed layer has not been observed during these years. In contrast maximal bioluminescence intensity and phytoplankton abundance in spring-summer was observed in "warm" years; biomass and bioluminescence intensity peaks shift to earlier month (April) in comparison to "moderate" years; period of dinoflagellate dominance was more extended during the spring-summer succession phase. Overall, group of dinoflagellates including luminous species, seems to be the most sensitive group of algae to climatic SST anomalies in coastal waters of the northern Black Sea. Hence, the bioluminescence in the upper sea layer can act as an indicator of climate-induced phytoplankton community restructuring. • Spring-summer succession of phytoplankton is affected by the Black Sea SST anomalies during preceding fall-winter period. • In "cold" years minimal IBP was observed along with diminished biomass and species abundance of diatoms and dinoflagellates. • In "warm" years high IBP and phytoplankton abundance in spring-summer was observed with peaks shifting to earlier month (April). • Group of dinoflagellates including luminous species seems to be the most sensitive to climatic SSTA in the northern Black Sea. • Bioluminescence in the upper sea layer can serve as an indicator of climate-induced phytoplankton community restructuring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variations of southern hemisphere (SH) climate variables are often linked to the southern annular mode (SAM) variability. We examined such linkage by seasons using state-of-the-art atmosphere and ocean/sea-ice reanalyses. The associated SAM related anomaly (SRA) fields of the climate variables, denoting anomalies corresponding to the same variation in SAM, are overall consistent across the reanalyses. Among the atmospheric products, 20CRV2 differs from ERA-interim and CFSR in the sea-level pressure SRAs over the Amundsen Sea, resulting in less warming over the Antarctic Peninsula. Among the ocean reanalyses, ORAP5 and C-GLORS exhibit the largest consistency. The major difference between them and the lower-resolution CFSR and SODA reanalyses is deeper penetration of anomalous meridional currents. Compared to the other ocean reanalyses, CFSR exhibits stronger and spatially more coherent surface-current SRAs, resulting in greater SRAs of sea-ice motion and ice thickness along the ice edges. The SRAs of sensible and total surface heat fluxes are reduced in CFSR due to ocean–atmosphere coupling. Significant sea-ice concentration SRAs are present on the west side of peninsulas along the east Antarctica coast in spring and winter, most notably in ORAP5 and C-GLORS, implying changes in new-ice production and shelf-water formation. Most atmosphere and ocean variables manifest an annular SRA pattern in summer and a non-annular pattern in the other seasons, with a wavenumber-3 structure strongest in autumn and weakest in summer. The wavenumber-3 structure should be related to the zonal wave three pattern of the SH circulation, the relation of which to SAM needs further exploration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wintertime haze day (HD) in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China shows a significant upward trend during the past decades due to the rapid industrialization and urbanization. Besides the enhanced anthropogenic emission, climate change also plays the important role in the long term HD variations. In this study, the significant decadal variation of wintertime HD during the period 1960–2012 in YRD is examined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, featured as less HD occurrence before 1980 and more occurrence after 2000. The numerical simulations by the global transport and chemical model (Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, MOZART) with the same emission inventory suggest 8.4% enhancement of wintertime PM 2.5 (particulate matter with the equivalent diameter of air dynamics less than or equal to 2.5 μm) mass concentration in YRD during 2001–2009 compared with that during 1971–1979 attributed to meteorological changes, indicating the significant effect of climate anomaly on the decadal variations of wintertime HD. Through the composite analysis on the atmospheric dynamical and thermal conditions based on the reanalysis data, the faster warming in the lower and middle troposphere over the continent in the recent decade is suggested to be important for the out-of-phase decadal HD variation in YRD. The thermal anomaly not only reverses the zonal thermal difference of land-sea to stimulate the anomalous southerlies over YRD leading to reduced prevailing north wind in winter, but also develops the deep inversion below the mid-troposphere to enhance the atmospheric stability. As a result, more frequent and persistent air stagnations in recent decade are expected for the reduction of atmospheric horizontal dispersion and vertical diffusion capacity leading to more occurrence of wintertime HD in YRD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By employing the singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis, we have investigated in the present paper the covariations between circulation changes in the Northern (NH) and Southern Hemispheres (SH) and their associations with ENSO by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the reconstructed monthly NOAA SST, and CMAP precipitation along with NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ENSO indices. A bi-hemispheric covariation mode (hereafter BHCM) is explored, which is well represented by the first mode of the SVD analysis of sea surface pressure anomaly (SLPA-SVD1). This SVD mode can explain 57.36% of the total covariance of SLPA. BHCM varies in time with a long-term trend and periodicities of 3-5 years. The long term trend revealed by SVD1 shows that the SLP increases in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific but decreases in the western Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, which facilitates easterlies in the lower troposphere to be intensified and El Niño events to occur with lower frequency. The spatial pattern of the BHCM looks roughly symmetric about the equator in the tropics, whereas it is characterized by zonal disturbances in the mid-latitude of NH and is highly associated with AAO in the mid-latitude of SH. On inter-annual time scales, the BHCM is highly correlated with ENSO. The atmosphere in both the NH and SH responds to sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial region, while the contemporaneous circulation changes in the NH and SH in turn affect the occurrence of El Niño/La Niña. In boreal winter, significant temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with the BHCM are found worldwide. Specifically, in the positive phase of the BHCM, temperature and precipitation are anomalously low in eastern China and some other regions of East Asia. These results are helpful for us to better understand interactions between circulations in the NH and SH and the dynamical mechanisms behind these interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural farmers in Vietnamese communes perceive climate risk and potential impacts on livelihood within a complex context that may influence individual and household decisions. In a primary survey of 1,145 residents of the Thach Ha district of Ha Tinh province, we gathered data regarding perception about stability in climate, potential risks to livelihood, demographic characteristics, orientation toward risk, and interest in expanding economic activity. Temporal analysis of meteorological and economic indicator data forms an empirical basis for comparison with human perception. We ask the basic question: Are rural farmers' perceptions of climate consistent with the historical record and reproducible within households? We find that respondents do perceive climate anomalies, with some anchoring on recent extreme events as revealed by climate observational data, and further that spouses disproportionately share perceptions relative to randomly simulated pairings. To put climate-related risk perception in a larger context, we examine patterns across a range of risks to livelihood faced by farmers (livestock disease, pests, markets, health), using dimension reduction techniques. We find that our respondents distinguish among potential causes of low economic productivity, with substantial emphasis on climate-related impacts. They do not express uniform concern across risks, but rather average patterns reveal common modes and distinguish climate concern. Still, among those expressing concern about climate-related risks to livelihood we do not find an association with expressed intention to pursue changes in economic activity as a risk management response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent climate variability and anomaly in the Great Lakes region provided a valuable opportunity in examining the response and regulation of ecosystem carbon cycling across different ecosystems. A simple Bayesian hierarchical model was developed and fitted against three-year (2011–2013) net ecosystem CO 2 exchange ( F CO 2 ) data observed at three eddy-covariance sites (i.e., a deciduous woodland, a cropland, and a marsh) in northwestern Ohio. The model was designed to partition the variation of gross ecosystem production (GEP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and F CO 2 that resulted directly from the short-term environmental forcing (i.e., direct effect) and indirectly from the changes of ecosystem functional traits (e.g., structural, physiological, and phenological traits) (i.e., indirect effect). Interannual variation of F CO 2 was mainly driven by indirect effects, accounting for 54%, 89%, and 86% of the interannual variation at the woodland, cropland, and marsh sites, respectively. On the other hand, direct climatic effects accounted for 33% of interannual F CO 2 variation at the woodland site and became irrelevant (<10%) at the cropland and marsh sites. In general, annual GEP and ER at each site tended to co-vary and dampen the interannual variability in F CO 2 . Yet, year-to-year changes of GEP and ER were not spatially synchronous, suggesting that the ecosystem's response to climate was strongly site-specific in terms of the annual net CO 2 uptake. Future research should focus on the disparate response among ecosystems and develop a suitable framework to examine the mechanisms that drive differences in closely co-located ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most well-known climate modes, can lead to large-scale climate variability and subsequent crop loss, posing a severe risk to global food security. The study's main goal was to examine the synchronous impacts of ENSO and the probability of simultaneous ENSO–related crop loss on the global yields of major crops and investigate the predictability of finer-scale variation in crop yields based on ENSO-related large-scale climate precursors. Here, using updated crop census data for ∼12,000 political units, the study first investigated the synchronous impact of ENSO on yield variability of major crops (i.e., maize, rice, wheat, and soybean) using Synthetic Analysis and bootstrap method, and then estimated the probability of simultaneous crop loss in the top five crop-producing countries by copula approach. Finally, multiple regression was developed to identify the best forecast model, the corresponding ENSO indices, and the lead time for each political unit based on pre-occurred ENSO indices. The results show that 12.8% (2.1%), 13.4% (6.4%), 11.8% (10.2%), and 8.4% (18.3%) of wheat, rice, maize, and soybean harvest areas were significantly negatively (positively) associated with El Niño, respectively; and 7% (11.7%), 20.2% (3.4%), 5.8% (5.6%), and 14% (6.4%) with La Niña. El Niño reduced global-mean crop yield by 1.32%, 1.33%, and 0.37% for wheat, rice, and maize, respectively, but increased it for soybean by 1.9%. La Niña reduced the global mean yield for rice (2.1%), maize (1.5%), and soybean (1.3%) but increased it for wheat (1.0%). Rice (6.6%) had the highest probability of simultaneous loss during the El Niño phase, whereas La Niña is soybean (5.9%). Based on the early ENSO signals, crop yield could be reliably forecasted for ∼32.05%, ∼42.2%, ∼21%, and ∼ 26.37% of global harvest areas, with R2 being 0.24, 0.26, 0.24, and 0.23 and a lead time of 1–12 months, for wheat, rice, maize, and soybean, respectively. The results suggest that although the reliable yield prediction based on ENSO indexes alone can be developed in a limited proportion of harvest areas, it is skillful in the ENSO-sensitive regions. The findings improved the understanding of ENSO-induced crop yield variability and developed novel approaches to forecast global crop yields based on early ENSO signals. [Display omitted] • The synchronous and pre-occurred impacts of ENSO on global yield variation remain elusive. • The predictability of finer-scale yield variation was investigated based on early ENSO signals. • The ENSO impacts varied with the crop type, growing season, location, and ENSO phase. • Approximately a fourth of (23–26%) yield variation could be reliably forecasted by ENSO indices alone. • The resultant global patterns of ENSO impacts on crop yield are valuable for developing an effective early warning system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the ENSO indices from the Climate Prediction Center over the period 1978-2014, we have investigated the contemporaneous circulation variations in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres by performing the singular value decomposition analysis of sea level pressure anomalies (SLPA) after the ENSO signal is regressed out. It is found that there exists a polar-tropical seesaw mode (PTSM) that characterizes with the out of phase fluctuations of SLPA between the polar and tropical regions in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in boreal winter. This PTSM explains 47.74% of the total covariance of SLPA and is almost independent of ENSO. It demonstrates a long-term trend and oscillation cycles of 2-3 and 4-6 yr. The long-term trend in PTSM indicates that the sea level pressure gradually decreases in the tropics and increases in the polar region with time. This PTSM looks roughly symmetric about the equator besides the seesaw pattern of SLPA between the tropics and polar region in each hemisphere. The disturbances in the geopotential height field in association with the PTSM shows baroclinic features in the tropics whereas equivalent barotropic features in the mid and high latitudes in the troposphere. The anomalous thermal forcing in the tropical region is possibly one of the factors facilitating the formation of this PTSM. Significant global precipitation and temperature anomalies related to the PTSM are observed. In the positive PTSM phase, precipitation and temperature are higher than normal in southern Europe and the Mediterranean and surrounding areas, but lower than normal in northern Europe and Siberia. Precipitation is higher than normal while temperature is lower than normal in Northeast Asia. Significant temperature and precipitation anomalies possibly occur in the regions of western China, northern India, parts of North America, parts of subtropical Africa, Maritime Continent, and Antarctic. These results are helpful for better understanding of the circulation variations and the mechanisms behind the interactions between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and the related winter climate anomalies over globe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A month time series of the Aridity Index (AI) was analyzed over 32 years (1981-2012) in Castelporziano (Rome, central Italy) with the objective to identify changes in climate seasonality and trend components. The AI decreased in the last 16 years (1997-2012) compared with the previous time interval (1981-1996). The largest decline was observed in spring and summer, especially in April and June. Time series analysis indicates a trend towards aridity with both seasonal and annual components and a moderate 6-years cycle component. Irregularities in time series indicate three distinct dry periods with a persistently high aridity index (1988-1989, 2003 and 2006-2007). These time intervals represent exceptional drought episodes in central Italy and confirm the general trend observed at the national level. The implications of the increased aridity in Castelporziano forest are finally discussed in the light of preservation of a typical agro-forest landscape in the Tyrrhenian coast around Rome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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We investigated carbon allocation in a cool-temperate forest in central Japan in years of contrasting climate anomalies: an early spring warming induced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation in 2002 and a low summer photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) induced by a stationary rain front in 2003. Observations of eddy flux, biometric variables, and chamber measurements from 1999 to 2006 and interannual variations in fine root net primary production (frNPP) were analyzed in conjunction with a terrestrial biosphere model simulation with multiple biometric constraints. Compared to the annual means (excluding 2002 and 2003), the low summer PPFD in 2003 reduced the annual gross primary productivity (GPP; −6%), soil respiration (SR; −11%), and ecosystem respiration (RE; −5%). Under the low summer PPFD, CO 2 fluxes commonly decreased but components of the NPP were not affected. The low variation in NPP is explained by previous findings that NPP is more sensitive to climate conditions before or during the early stage of the growing season. The early spring warming in 2002 increased the GPP (8%) and woody tissue NPP (wNPP; 55%) and decreased the frNPP (−33%) and SR (−6%). Although early spring warming prolonged the growing season, the foliage NPP (fNPP) and litterfall were invariant. The increase in wNPP and the decrease in frNPP imply that the forest decreased frNPP in favor of wNPP under the high spring temperature. Although the frNPP was estimated by model-data integration, we argue that the decrease in frNPP is plausible because the decrease in SR cannot be explained without the contribution from fine root respiration. These results suggest that increasing or decreasing patterns of component fluxes cannot necessarily be inferred from the GPP. Factors such as the nature and duration of climate anomalies and allocation shift between components of the NPP may need to be considered when characterizing carbon allocation under anomalous climate events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Taking the event of low temperature faced by Xixi reservoir dam due to climate anomaly for example, the effect of climate anomaly on Xixi RCC gravity dam was systematically studied. Through analyzing observational data of uplift pressure of dam foundation, the conclusion that low temperature and increase of reservoir water level lead to the increase in uplift pressure was drawled qualitatively. To further analyze the relationship between uplift pressure coefficients and the changes of temperature or water level, the statistical regression model of uplift pressure coefficient was established. Then, the effect of low temperature and reservoir water level on the dam safety was analyzed qualitatively. The results show that in high water level conditions, extreme low temperatures resulting in a larger temperature difference will affect the safety operation of RCC gravity dam. By calculating the strength and stability of gravity dam under high uplift pressure, the approach of determining the critical temperature of dam damage is obtained and the critical temperature of Xixi reservoir dam due to climate anomaly is derived. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Temperature records for the Russian territory in summer 2010 are presented. The potential role that the current global warming plays in the formation of abnormally hot summers in the European part of Russia is discussed. Although the main reason for the extreme heat wave in 2010 was a quasi-stationary anticyclone blocking westerlies, global warming could also contribute to the observed temperature extremums adversely affecting the biota. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traditional anomaly (TA) reference frame and its corresponding anomaly for a given data span changes with the extension of data length. In this study, the modulated annual cycle (MAC), instead of the widely used climatological mean annual cycle, is used as an alternative reference frame for computing climate anomalies to study the multi-timescale variability of surface air temperature (SAT) in China based on homogenized daily data from 1952 to 2004. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method is used to separate daily SAT into a high frequency component, a MAC component, an interannual component, and a decadal-to-trend component. The results show that the EEMD method can reflect historical events reasonably well, indicating its adaptive and temporally local characteristics. It is shown that MAC is a temporally local reference frame and will not be altered over a particular time span by an extension of data length, thereby making it easier for physical interpretation. In the MAC reference frame, the low frequency component is found more suitable for studying the interannual to longer timescale variability (ILV) than a 13-month window running mean, which does not exclude the annual cycle. It is also better than other traditional versions (annual or summer or winter mean) of ILV, which contains a portion of the annual cycle. The analysis reveals that the variability of the annual cycle could be as large as the magnitude of interannual variability. The possible physical causes of different timescale variability of SAT in China are further discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In climate science, an anomaly is the deviation of a quantity from its annual cycle. There are many ways to define annual cycle. Traditionally, this annual cycle is taken to be an exact repeat of itself year after year. This stationary annual cycle may not reflect well the intrinsic nonlinearity of the climate system, especially under external forcing. In this paper, we re-examine the reference frame for anomalies by re-examining the annual cycle. We propose an alternative reference frame for climate anomalies, the modulated annual cycle (MAC) that allows the annual cycle to change from year to year, for defining anomalies. In order for this alternative reference frame to be useful, we need to be able to define the instantaneous annual cycle: we therefore also introduce a new method to extract the MAC from climatic data. In the presence of a MAC, modulated in both amplitude and frequency, we can then define an alternative version of an anomaly, this time with respect to the instantaneous MAC rather than a permanent and unchanging AC. Based on this alternative definition of anomalies, we re-examine some familiar physical processes: in particular SST re-emergence and ENSO phase locking to the annual cycle. We find that the re-emergence mechanism may be alternatively interpreted as an explanation of the change of the annual cycle instead of an explanation of the interannual to interdecadal persistence of SST anomalies. We also find that the ENSO phase locking can largely be attributed to the residual annual cycle (the difference of the MAC and the corresponding traditional annual cycle) contained in the traditional anomaly, and, therefore, can be alternatively interpreted as a part of the annual cycle phase locked to the annual cycle itself. In addition to the examples of reinterpretation of physics of well known climate phenomena, we also present an example of the implications of using a MAC against which to define anomalies. We show that using MAC as a reference framework for anomaly can bypass the difficulty brought by concepts such as “decadal variability of summer (or winter) climate” for understanding the low-frequency variability of the climate system. The concept of an amplitude and frequency modulated annual cycle, a method to extract it, and its implications for the interpretation of physical processes, all may contribute potentially to a more consistent and fruitful way of examining past and future climate variability and change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global rate of fossil fuel combustion continues to rise, but the amount of CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere has not increased accordingly. The causes for this discrepancy are widely debated. Particularly, the location and drivers for the interannual variability of atmospheric CO2 are highly uncertain. Here we examine links between global atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) and the climate anomalies of biomes based on (1986–1995) global climate data of ten years and accompanying satellite data sets. Our results show that four biomes, the tropical rainforest, tropical savanna, C4 grassland and boreal forest, and their responses to climate anomalies, are the major climate-sensitive CO2 sinks/sources that control the CGR. The nature and magnitude by which these biomes respond to climate anomalies are generally not the same. However, one common influence did emerge from our analysis; the extremely high CGR observed for the one extreme El Niño year was caused by the response of the tropical biomes (rainforest, savanna and C4 grassland) to temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the temporal variation characteristics of the dust storm in North China are investigated. Based on power spectrum analysis and wavelet analysis, 1956-1970 and 1985-1999 are chosen as the high-frequency and low-frequency dust storm decades respectively. Analysis results clearly show that the spring and wintertime anomalous atmospheric circulation between these two decades are significantly different. Compared with the former decade, there are a strengthened polar vortex, enhanced westerlies near 50°N, and a weak East Asian major though in the winter of the latter decade. The north and center parts of the Siberian high and the Aleutian low become weak. The southerly and easterly wind anomalies appear over the north and east parts of China, which implies the weakening of East Asian winter monsoon. Meanwhile, northern China experiences warmer winters and wetter springs, which are in favor of the weakening of dust storm intensity in North China. There are significant out-of-phase relationships between dust frequency and wintertime westerly intensity, as well as between dust frequency and Arctic Oscillation. It is also found that the frequency of dust weather is strongly related to winter-springtime East Asian monsoon intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clear evidence provided by the singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation data identifies that there exists a sensitive region of vegetation-climate interaction located in the transitional zone over northern China and its surrounding areas, where the vegetation cover change has the most significant influence on summer precipitation over China. Comparison of reanalysis data with station data provides a good method to assess the impacts of land use change on surface temperature, and the most obvious contribution of land use change may be to lead to notable warming over northern China in the interdecadal time scale. Based on the new statistical results, a high-resolution regional integrated environmental model system (RIEMS) is employed to investigate the effects of land surface degradation over the transitional zone and its surrounding areas (northern China and southern Mongolia) on the regional climate. Land degradation results in the decreases in precipitation over northern and southern China, and the increase in between, and increased and decreased temperature over vegetation change areas and the adjacent area to the south, respectively. Not only would it change the surface climate, but also bring the significant influence on the atmospheric circulation. Both the surface climate and circulation changes generally agree to the observed interdecadal anomalies over the last five decades. These integrated statistical and simulated results imply that land surface degradation over the transitional zone in northern China and its surrounding areas could be one of the main causes responsible for the climate anomalies over China, especially the drought over northern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The observed data of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the sea temperature (ST) in the sub-layer of the equatorial Pacific, the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data and the data set of daily precipitation in China are used to analyze the characteristics of the 1997 / 98 ENSO cycle and its impact on summer climate anomalies in East Asia. The results show that the 1997/98 ENSO cycle, the strongest one in the 20th century, might be characterized by rapid development and decay and eastward propagation from the West Pacific warm pool. Influenced by the ENSO cycle, in 1997, the serious drought and hot summer occurred in North China, and in the summer of 1998, the severe floods occurred in the Yangtze River valley, especially in the Dongting Lake and Boyang Lake valleys, South Korea and Japan. The analysis also shows that: influenced by the 1997/98 ENSO cycle, the water vapor transportation by the Asian monsoon in the summer of 1997 was very different from that in the summer of 1998. In the summer of 1997, the water vapor transportation by the Asian summer monsoon was weak in North China and the northern part of the Korea Peninsula. Thus, it caused the drought and hot summer in North China. However, in the summer of 1998, the sea temperature in the sub-layer of the West Pacific warm pool dropped, the western Pacific subtropical high shifted southward. Thus, a large amount of water vapor was transported from the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea and the tropical western Pacific into the Yangtze River valley of China, South Korea and Japan, and the severe flood occurred there. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate in the 1980’s is characterized by the appearance of two strong ENSO events and by the warmest decade in global mean temperature. Whether there is a linkage between ENSO and global warming ? This paper shows the climate anomaly patterns over the global ocean in the 1980’s and their comparison with that of ENSO composite mode and that simulated by 2 × CO2, indicating the role of super ENSO in the establishment of new climate regime in thel980’s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Late Holocene was characterized by several centennial-scale climate oscillations including the Roman Warm Period, the Dark Ages Cold Period, the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. The detection and investigation of such climate anomalies requires paleoclimate archives with an accurate chronology as well as a high temporal resolution. Here, we present 230Th/U-dated high-resolution multi-proxy records (δ13C, δ18O and trace elements) for the last 2500 years of four speleothems from Bunker Cave and the Herbstlabyrinth cave system in Germany. The multi-proxy data of all four speleothems show evidence of two warm and two cold phases during the last 2500 years, which coincide with the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period, as well as the Dark Ages Cold Period and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During these four cold and warm periods, the δ18O and δ13C records of all four speleothems and the Mg concentration of the speleothems Bu4 (Bunker Cave) and TV1 (Herbstlabyrinth cave system) show common features and are thus interpreted to be related to past climate variability. Comparison with other paleoclimate records suggests a strong influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation at the two caves sites, which is reflected by warm and humid conditions during the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period, and cold and dry climate during the Dark Ages Cold period and the Little Ice Age. The Mg records of speleothems Bu1 (Bunker Cave) and NG01 (Herbstlabyrinth) as well as the inconsistent patterns of Sr, Ba and P suggests that the processes controlling the abundance of these trace elements are dominated by site-specific effects rather than being related to supra-regional climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial loess palaeosol sequences (LPS) are the most extensive paleoclimate archives documenting dynamic sedimentary processes in response to glacial (cold-dry) and interglacial (warm-wet) phases. In the present study, we provide chrono-stratigraphy and paleoenvironmental implications of a 600 cm LPS outcrop from the Kashmir Valley, Western Himalaya. The Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating revealed development of polycyclic palaeosol units with variable thickness, a parent loess horizon and pedogenically modified loess during the last ~65.8 ± 7.2 ka to ~14.7 ± 5.4 ka. The multiproxy analysis revealed four major climate phases that prevailed between 65.8 ± 7.2 ka to 14.7 ± 5.4 ka. Sediment deposition from ~800 to ~640 cm suggests moderate climate, followed by development of an unaltered loess horizon (~640 to ~600 cm depth; C horizon) suggesting arid/dry climatic conditions with relatively higher wind velocity. Occurrence of a well-developed palaeosol (600 to 450 cm) suggests prevalence of warm/wetter climatic conditions. Cambisol deposited with high CaCO 3 content followed by a weakly developed palaeosol (450 to 200 cm) suggests dominance of cold/dry climate conditions and progression of the climate during the latter phase. Subsequently, the accumulation of parent loess ceased at ~14.7 ± 5.4 ka and the sedimentary environment was overtaken by the fluvial activity probably caused by widespread precipitation and/or glacial melting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Alpine grasslands were more stable than temperate grasslands. • The stability of grasslands showed altitudinal dependence. • The shifts of stability dimensionality signaled grassland state transitions. Ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented climate change during the past decades, which drove evident shifts in ecosystem states, processes and functions. Understanding ecosystem stability is critical for accurately assessing and predicting ecosystem state shifts when exposed to climate fluctuations. Here, we disentangled and evaluated the dimensionality of ecosystem stability in terms of productivity substituted by normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) in response to climate changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, temporally or spatially. Invariability, resistance, and resilience were considered as the stability components for five different grassland types across the Tibetan Plateau. The dimensionality of ecosystem stability was derived from the pairwise correlation matrics between invariability, resistance, and resilience. Our results confirmed that ecosystem productivity stability is grassland-type specific, with alpine meadows and steppes being more stable than temperate meadows, steppes, and desert-steppes. The dimensionality and components of grassland stability on the Tibetan Plateau showed strong altitudinal dependence. Invariability and resistance first increased and then decreased along increasing altitudes, with their maximums peaking at the middle-altitudes of ~3,750 m. However, the resilience of ecosystem productivity linearly increased with increasing altitudes. Correlations among stability components were highest at the altitude of ~ 3,300 m, where is the transition zone between temperate and alpine grasslands and the lowest dimensionality of ecosystem stability. Finally, we suggest that the altitudinal shifts of stability dimensionality might be the signals of grassland state transition from temperate to alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]