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Bhutan has reported a total of 2596 COVID-19 cases and three deaths as of September 15, 2021. With support from India, the United States, Denmark, the People’s Republic of China, Croatia and other countries, Bhutan was able to conduct two rounds of nationwide vaccination campaign. While many countries struggle to overcome vaccine refusal or hesitancy due to complacency, a lack of trust, inconvenience and fear, escalated in some countries by anti-vaccine groups, Bhutan managed to inoculate more than 95% of its eligible populations in two rounds of vaccination campaign. Enabling factors of this successful vaccination campaign were strong national leadership, a well-coordinated national preparedness plan, and high acceptability of vaccine due to effective mass communication and social engagement led by religious figures, volunteers and local leaders. In this short report, we described the national strategic plan and enabling factors that led to the success of this historical vaccination campaign.

•Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) represent a threat to the health, wellbeing and economic prosperity of billions of people worldwide, often causing serious disease or death. •Commonly considered diseases of low and middle-income nations, the presence of NTDs in high income countries such as Australia is often overlooked. •Seven of the 20 recognised NTDs are endemic in Australia: scabies, soil-transmitted helminths and strongyloidiasis, echinococcosis, Buruli ulcer, leprosy, trachoma, and snakebite envenoming. •Dengue, while not currently endemic, poses a risk of establishment in Australia. There are occasional outbreaks of dengue fever, with local transmission, due to introductions in travellers from endemic regions. •Similarly, the risk of introduction of other NTDs from neighbouring countries is a concern. Many NTDs are only seen in Australia in individuals travelling from endemic areas, but they need to be recognised in health settings as the potential consequences of infection can be severe. •In this review, we consider the status of NTDs in Australia, explore the risk of introducing and contracting these infections, and emphasise the negative impact they have on the health of Australians, especially Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

Malaria risk is highly heterogeneous. Understanding village and household-level spatial heterogeneity of malaria risk can support a transition to spatially targeted interventions for malaria elimination. This analysis uses data from cross-sectional prevalence surveys conducted in 2014 and 2016 in two villages (Megiar and Mirap) in Papua New Guinea. Generalised additive modelling was used to characterise spatial heterogeneity of malaria risk and investigate the contribution of individual, household and environmental-level risk factors. Following a period of declining malaria prevalence, the prevalence of P. falciparum increased from 11.4 to 19.1% in Megiar and 12.3 to 28.3% in Mirap between 2014 and 2016, with focal hotspots observed in these villages in 2014 and expanding in 2016. Prevalence of P. vivax was similar in both years (20.6% and 18.3% in Megiar, 22.1% and 23.4% in Mirap) and spatial risk heterogeneity was less apparent compared to P. falciparum. Within-village hotspots varied by Plasmodium species across time and between villages. In Megiar, the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of infection could be partially explained by household factors that increase risk of vector exposure, such as collecting outdoor surface water as a main source of water. In Mirap, increased AOR overlapped with proximity to densely vegetated areas of the village. The identification of household and environmental factors associated with increased spatial risk may serve as useful indicators of transmission hotspots and inform the development of tailored approaches for malaria control.

BACKGROUND: Treatment outcomes among patients treated for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) are often sub-optimal. Therefore, the early prediction of poor treatment outcomes may be useful in patient care, especially for clinicians when they have the ability to make treatment decisions or offer counselling or additional support to patients. The aim of this study was to develop a simple clinical risk score to predict poor treatment outcomes in patients with MDR-TB, using routinely collected data from two large countries in geographically distinct regions. METHODS: We used MDR-TB data collected from Hunan Chest Hospital, China and Gondar University Hospital, Ethiopia. The data were divided into derivation (n = 343; 60%) and validation groups (n = 227; 40%). A poor treatment outcome was defined as treatment failure, lost to follow up or death. A risk score for poor treatment outcomes was derived using a Cox proportional hazard model in the derivation group. The model was then validated in the validation group. RESULTS: The overall rate of poor treatment outcome was 39.5% (n = 225); 37.9% (n = 86) in the derivation group and 40.5% (n = 139) in the validation group. Three variables were identified as predictors of poor treatment outcomes, and each was assigned a number of points proportional to its regression coefficient. These predictors and their points were: 1) history of taking second-line TB treatment (2 points), 2) resistance to any fluoroquinolones (3 points), and 3) smear did not convert from positive to negative at two months (4 points). We summed these points to calculate the risk score for each patient; three risk groups were defined: low risk (0 to 2 points), medium risk (3 to 5 points), and high risk (6 to 9 points). In the derivation group, poor treatment outcomes were reported for these three groups as 14%, 27%, and 71%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the point system in the derivation group was 0.69 (95

BACKGROUND: District Health Information Systems 2 (DHIS2) is used for supporting health information management in 67 countries, including Solomon Islands. However, there have been few published evaluations of the performance of DHIS2-enhanced disease reporting systems, in particular for monitoring infectious diseases such as malaria. The aim of this study was to evaluate DHIS2 supported malaria reporting in Solomon Islands and to develop recommendations for improving the system. METHODS: The evaluation was conducted in three administrative areas of Solomon Islands: Honoria City Council, and Malaita and Guadalcanal Provinces. Records of nine malaria indicators including report submission date, total malaria cases, Plasmodium falciparum case record, Plasmodium vivax case record, clinical malaria, malaria diagnosed with microscopy, malaria diagnosed with (rapid diagnostic test) (RDT), record of drug stocks and records of RDT stocks from 1st January to 31st December 2016 were extracted from the DHIS2 database. The indicators permitted assessment in four core areas: availability, completeness, timeliness and reliability. To explore perceptions and point of view of the stakeholders on the performance of the malaria case reporting system, focus group discussions were conducted with health centre nurses, whilst in-depth interviews were conducted with stakeholder representatives from government (province and national) staff and World Health Organization officials who were users of DHIS2. RESULTS: Data were extracted from nine health centres in Honoria City Council and 64 health centres in Malaita Province. The completeness and timeliness from the two provinces of all nine indicators were 28.2% and 5.1%, respectively. The most reliable indicator in DHIS2 was 'clinical malaria' (i.e. numbers of clinically diagnosed malaria cases) with 62.4% reliability. Challenges to completeness were a lack of supervision, limited feedback, high workload, and a lack of training and refresher

Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are endemic in Indonesia. However, prevalence data for many parts of the country are incomplete. The aim of this study was to determine human STH prevalence and knowledge and practices relating to STH risk behaviour, to provide a current view of the status of STH infection in rural communities in Central Java. A cross-sectional survey of 16 villages was conducted in Semarang, Central Java in 2015. Demographic and household data together with information about knowledge and practices relating to STH and hygiene were elicited through face-to-face interviews. Stool samples were collected and examined using the flotation method. Children (aged 2–12 years) also had their haemoglobin (Hb) levels, height and weight data collected, and BMI estimated. Data were analysed using univariate logistic regression analysis. A total of 6,466 individuals with a mean age of 33.5 years (range: 2–93) from 2,195 households were interviewed. The overall prevalence of STH was 33.8% with Ascaris lumbricoides (roundworm) the predominant nematode identified (prevalence = 26.0%). Hookworm and Trichuris trichiura (whipworm) were found in 7.9% and 1.8% of participants, respectively. Females were at increased odds of infection with A. lumbricoides (adjusted OR 1.14, 95% CI [1.02–1.29], p = 0.02). Adults in age groups 51–60 and over 60 years had the highest odds of being infected with hookworm (adjusted OR 3.01, 95% CI [1.84–4.91], p<0.001 and adjusted OR 3.79, 95% CI [2.30–6.26], p<0.001, respectively) compared to 6–12 year olds. Farmers also had higher odds of being infected with hookworm (adjusted OR 2.36, 95% CI [1.17–4.76], p = 0.02) compared to other occupation categories. Poverty (OR 2.14, 95% CI [1.77–2.58], p<0.001), overcrowding (OR 1.35, 95% CI [1.27–1.44], p<0.001), goat ownership (OR 1.61, 95% CI [1.10–2.41], p = 0.02) and the presence of dry floor space in the home (OR 0.73, 95% CI [0.58–0.91], p = 0.01) were all household factors significant

Background: Giardiasis is a common diarrhoeal disease caused by the protozoan Giardia duodenalis. It is prevalent in low-income countries in the context of inadequate access to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), and is frequently co-endemic with neglected tropical diseases such as soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections. Large-scale periodic deworming programmes are often implemented in these settings; however, there is limited evidence for the impact of regular anthelminthic treatment on G. duodenalis infection. Additionally, few studies have examined the impact of WASH interventions on G. duodenalis. Methods: The WASH for WORMS cluster randomised controlled trial was conducted in remote communities in Manufahi municipality, Timor-Leste, between 2012 and 2016. All study communities received four rounds of deworming with albendazole at six-monthly intervals. Half were randomised to additionally receive a community-level WASH intervention following study baseline. We measured G. duodenalis infection in study participants every six months for two years, immediately prior to deworming, as a pre-specified secondary outcome of the trial. WASH access and behaviours were measured using questionnaires. Results: There was no significant change in G. duodenalis prevalence in either study arm between baseline and the final study follow-up. We found no additional benefit of the community-level WASH intervention on G. duodenalis infection (relative risk: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.72-1.54). Risk factors for G. duodenalis infection included living in a household with a child under five years of age (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.04-1.75), living in a household with more than six people (aOR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.02-1.72), and sampling during the rainy season (aOR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.04-1.45). Individuals infected with the hookworm Necator americanus were less likely to have G. duodenalis infection (aOR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.57-0.88). Conclusions: Prevalence of G. duodenalis was not aff

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines and targets for soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control focus on school-based deworming for school-age children, given the high risk of associated morbidity in this age group. However, expanding deworming to all age groups may achieve improved STH control among both the community in general and school-age children, by reducing their risk of reinfection. This trial aims to compare school-based targeted deworming with community-wide mass deworming in terms of impact on STH infections among school-age children. METHODS: The CoDe-STH (Community Deworming against STH) trial is a cluster-randomised controlled trial (RCT) in 64 primary schools in Dak Lak province, Vietnam. The control arm will receive one round of school-based targeted deworming with albendazole, while in the intervention arm, community-wide mass deworming with albendazole will be implemented alongside school-based deworming. Prevalence of STH infections will be measured in school-age children at baseline and 12 months following deworming. The primary outcome is hookworm prevalence in school-age children at 12 months, by quantitative PCR. Analysis will be intention-to-treat, with outcomes compared between study arms using generalised linear and non-linear mixed models. Additionally, cost-effectiveness of mass and targeted deworming will be calculated and compared, and focus group discussions and interviews will be used to assess acceptability and feasibility of deworming approaches. Individual based stochastic models will be used to predict the impact of mass and targeted deworming strategies beyond the RCT timeframe to assess the likelihood of parasite population 'bounce-back' if deworming is ceased due to low STH prevalence. DISCUSSION: The first large-scale trial comparing mass and targeted deworming for STH control in South East Asia will provide key information for policy makers regarding the optimal design of STH control programs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN12619000309189

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from an infectious disease in Ethiopia, killing more than 30 thousand people every year. This study aimed to determine whether the rates of poor TB treatment outcome varied geographically across Ethiopia at district and zone levels and whether such variability was associated with socioeconomic, behavioural, health care access, or climatic conditions. METHODS: A geospatial analysis was conducted using national TB data reported to the health management information system (HMIS), for the period 2015-2017. The prevalence of poor TB treatment outcomes was calculated by dividing the sum of treatment failure, death and loss to follow-up by the total number of TB patients. Binomial logistic regression models were computed and a spatial analysis was performed using a Bayesian framework. Estimates of parameters were generated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Geographic clustering was assessed using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic, and global and local Moran's I statistics. RESULTS: A total of 223,244 TB patients were reported from 722 districts in Ethiopia during the study period. Of these, 63,556 (28.5%) were cured, 139,633 (62.4%) completed treatment, 6716 (3.0%) died, 1459 (0.7%) had treatment failure, and 12,200 (5.5%) were lost to follow-up. The overall prevalence of a poor TB treatment outcome was 9.0% (range, 1-58%). Hot-spots and clustering of poor TB treatment outcomes were detected in districts near the international borders in Afar, Gambelia, and Somali regions and cold spots were detected in Oromia and Amhara regions. Spatial clustering of poor TB treatment outcomes was positively associated with the proportion of the population with low wealth index (OR: 1.01; 95%CI: 1.0, 1.01), the proportion of the population with poor knowledge about TB (OR: 1.02; 95%CI: 1.01, 1.03), and higher annual mean temperature per degree Celsius (OR: 1.15; 95% CI: 1.08, 1.21). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed signif

Ethiopia is one of 30-high burden multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) countries globally. The aim of this study was to describe the characteristics of patients with MDR-TB and to investigate risk factors for MDR-TB relative to having drug-susceptible tuberculosis (TB), in northwest Ethiopia. A hospital-based, unmatched case-control study was conducted. Cases were all MDR-TB patients (i.e., resistant to at least rifampicin and isoniazid) who were confirmed by culture and drug-susceptibility testing whilst enrolled on treatment at Gondar University Hospital. Controls were all drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB) patients who were confirmed by Gene Xpert MTB/RIF at Gondar University Hospital. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used for comparisons, and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed to measure the strength of association between the dependent and independent variables. A total of 452 patients (242 MDR-TB and 210 DS-TB) were included in this study. The mean age of the study participants was 33 years (SD ± 14 years). Approximately one-fifth (78, 17%) of all study participants were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive; 21% (51) of cases and 13% (27) of controls. Risk factors associated with MDR-TB were a history of previous TB treatment (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 83.8; 95% CI: 40.7, 172.5), low educational status (AOR: 5.32; 95% CI: 1.43, 19.81); and ages less than 20 years (AOR: 9.01; 95% CI: 2.30, 35.25) and 21-30 years (AOR: 2.61; 95% CI: 1.02, 6.64). HIV infection was also significantly associated with MDR-TB among new TB patients (AOR: 5.55; 95% CI: 1.17, 26.20). This study shows that clinical and demographic features can be used to indicate higher risks of drug resistance in this setting.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) transmission often occurs within a household or community, leading to heterogeneous spatial patterns. However, apparent spatial clustering of TB could reflect ongoing transmission or co-location of risk factors and can vary considerably depending on the type of data available, the analysis methods employed and the dynamics of the underlying population. Thus, we aimed to review methodological approaches used in the spatial analysis of TB burden. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature search of spatial studies of TB published in English using Medline, Embase, PsycInfo, Scopus and Web of Science databases with no date restriction from inception to 15 February 2017. The protocol for this systematic review was prospectively registered with PROSPERO ( CRD42016036655 ). RESULTS: We identified 168 eligible studies with spatial methods used to describe the spatial distribution (n = 154), spatial clusters (n = 73), predictors of spatial patterns (n = 64), the role of congregate settings (n = 3) and the household (n = 2) on TB transmission. Molecular techniques combined with geospatial methods were used by 25 studies to compare the role of transmission to reactivation as a driver of TB spatial distribution, finding that geospatial hotspots are not necessarily areas of recent transmission. Almost all studies used notification data for spatial analysis (161 of 168), although none accounted for undetected cases. The most common data visualisation technique was notification rate mapping, and the use of smoothing techniques was uncommon. Spatial clusters were identified using a range of methods, with the most commonly employed being Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic followed by local Moran's I and Getis and Ord's local Gi(d) tests. In the 11 papers that compared two such methods using a single dataset, the clustering patterns identified were often inconsistent. Classical regression models that did not account for spatial dependence were commonl

BACKGROUND: Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) infect nearly 1.5 billion individuals globally, and contribute to poor physical and cognitive development in children. STH control programs typically consist of regular delivery of anthelminthic drugs, targeting school-aged children. Expanding STH control programs community-wide may improve STH control among school-aged children, and combining deworming with improvements to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) may further reduce transmission. The (S)WASH-D for Worms pilot study aims to compare the differential impact of integrated WASH and deworming programs when implemented at primary schools only versus when additionally implemented community-wide. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A two-arm, non-randomized cluster intervention study was conducted. Six communities were identified by partner WASH agencies and enrolled in the study. All communities received a school-based WASH and deworming program, while three additionally received a community-based WASH and deworming program. STH infections were measured in school-aged children at baseline and six months after deworming. Over 90% of eligible children were recruited for the study, of whom 92.3% provided stool samples at baseline and 88.9% at follow-up. The school WASH intervention improved school sanitation, while the community WASH intervention reduced open defecation from 50.4% (95% CI 41.8-59.0) to 23.5% (95% CI 16.7-32.0). There was a trend towards reduced odds of N. americanus infection among children who received the community-wide intervention (OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.07-2.36, p = 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: This pilot study provides proof of principle for testing the hypothesis that community-wide STH control programs have a greater impact on STH infections among children than school-based programs, and supports the rationale for conducting a full-scale cluster randomized controlled trial. High recruitment and participation rates and successful implementation of school WASH prog

INTRODUCTION: The sequelae of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) are poorly understood and inconsistently reported. We will aim to assess the existing evidence for the clinical, psychological, social and economic sequelae of MDR-TB and to assess the health-related quality of life in patients with MDR-TB. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies reporting sequelae of MDR-TB. We will search PubMed, SCOPUS, ProQuest, Web of Science and PsychINFO databases up to 5 September 2017. MDR-TB sequelae will include any clinical, psychological, social and economic effects as well as health-related quality of life that occur after MDR-TB treatment or illness. Two researchers will screen the titles and abstracts of all citations identified in our search, extract data, and assess the scientific quality using standardised formats. Providing there is appropriate comparability in the studies, we will use a random-effects meta-analysis model to produce pooled estimates of MDR-TB sequelae from the included studies. We will stratify the analyses based on treatment regimen, comorbidities (such as HIV status and diabetes mellitus), previous TB treatment history and study setting. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: As this study will be based on published data, ethical approval is not required. The final report will be disseminated through publication in a peer-reviewed scientific journal and will also be presented at relevant conferences. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42017073182.

BACKGROUND: Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) including Ascaris lumbricoides, Necator americanus, Ancylostoma spp. and Trichuris trichiura are cause of significant global morbidity. To mitigate their disease burden, at-risk groups in endemic regions receive periodic mass drug administration using anthelmintics, most commonly albendazole and mebendazole. Assessing the efficacy of anthelmintic drugs is important for confirming that these regimens are working effectively and that drug resistance has not emerged. In this study we aimed to characterise the therapeutic efficacy of albendazole against Ascaris spp. and N. americanus in Timor-Leste, using a quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) method for parasite detection and quantification. RESULTS: A total of 314 participants from 8 communities in Timor-Leste provided stool samples before and 10-14 days after the administration of a single 400 mg dose of albendazole. Helminth infection status and infection intensity (measured in Ct-values and relative fluorescence units) were determined using qPCR. Efficacy was determined by examining the cure rates and infection intensity reduction rates. Albendazole was found to be highly efficacious against Ascaris spp., with a cure rate of 91.4% (95% CI: 85.9-95.2%) and infection intensity reduction rate of 95.6% (95% CI: 88.3-100%). The drug was less efficacious against N. americanus with a cure rate of 58.3% (95% CI: 51.4-64.9%) and infection intensity reduction rate of 88.9% (95% CI: 84.0-97.0%). CONCLUSIONS: The observed cure rates and infection intensity reduction rates obtained for Ascaris spp. and to a lower extent N. americanus, demonstrate the continued efficacy of albendazole against these species and its utility as a mass chemotherapy agent in Timor-Leste. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the usefulness of qPCR as a method to measure the efficacy of anthelminthic drugs. Additional research is necessary to translate Ct-values into eggs per gram in a systematic w

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) has conditionally recommended the use of sputum smear microscopy and culture examination for the monitoring of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) treatment. We aimed to assess and compare the validity of smear and culture conversion at different time points during treatment for MDR-TB, as a prognostic marker for end-of-treatment outcomes. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective observational cohort study using data obtained from Hunan Chest Hospital, China and Gondar University Hospital, Ethiopia. The sensitivity and specificity of culture and sputum smear conversion for predicting treatment outcomes were analysed using a random-effects generalized linear mixed model. RESULTS: A total of 429 bacteriologically confirmed MDR-TB patients with a culture and smear positive result were included. Overall, 345 (80%) patients had a successful treatment outcome, and 84 (20%) patients had poor treatment outcomes. The sensitivity of smear and culture conversion to predict a successful treatment outcome were: 77.9% and 68.9% at 2 months after starting treatment (difference between tests, p = 0.007); 95.9% and 92.7% at 4 months (p = 0.06); 97.4% and 96.2% at 6 months (p = 0.386); and 99.4% and 98.9% at 12 months (p = 0.412), respectively. The specificity of smear and culture non-conversion to predict a poor treatment outcome were: 41.6% and 60.7% at 2 months (p = 0.012); 23.8% and 48.8% at 4 months (p<0.001); and 20.2% and 42.8% at 6 months (p<0.001); and 15.4% and 32.1% (p<0.001) at 12 months, respectively. The sensitivity of culture and smear conversion increased as the month of conversion increased but at the cost of decreased specificity. The optimum time points after conversion to provide the best prognostic marker of a successful treatment outcome were between two and four months after treatment commencement for smear, and between four and six months for culture. The common optimum time point for smear and culture convers

© 2017 The Author(s). Background: Timor-Leste has a high prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections. High proportions of the population have been reported as being anaemic, and extremely high proportions of children as stunted or wasted. There have been no published analyses of the contributions of STH to these morbidity outcomes in Timor-Leste. Methods: Using baseline cross-sectional data from 24 communities (18 communities enrolled in a cluster randomised controlled trial, and identically-collected data from six additional communities), analyses of the association between STH infections and community haemoglobin and child development indices were undertaken. Stool samples were assessed for STH using qPCR and participant haemoglobin, heights and weights were measured. Questionnaires were administered to collect demographic and socioeconomic data. Intensity of infection was categorised using correlational analysis between qPCR quantification cycle values and eggs per gram of faeces equivalents, with algorithms generated from seeding experiments. Mixed-effects logistic and multinomial regression were used to assess the association between STH infection intensity classes and anaemia, and child stunting, wasting and underweight. Results: Very high stunting (60%), underweight (60%), and wasting (20%) in children, but low anaemia prevalence (15%), were found in the study communities. STH were not significantly associated with morbidity outcomes. Male children and those in the poorest socioeconomic quintile were significantly more likely to be moderately and severely stunted. Male children were significantly more likely than female children to be severely underweight. Increasing age was also a risk factor for being underweight. Few risk factors emerged for wasting in these analyses. Conclusions: According to World Health Organization international reference standards, levels of child morbidity in this population constitute a public health emergency, although

© 2017 Campbell et al. Background: No investigations have been undertaken of risk factors for intensity of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infection in Timor-Leste. This study provides the first analysis of risk factors for intensity of STH infection, as determined by quantitative PCR (qPCR), examining a broad range of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) and environmental factors, among communities in Manufahi District, Timor-Leste. Methods: A baseline cross-sectional survey of 18 communities was undertaken as part of a cluster randomised controlled trial, with additional identically-collected data from six other communities. qPCR was used to assess STH infection from stool samples, and questionnaires administered to collect WASH, demographic, and socioeconomic data. Environmental information was obtained from open-access sources and linked to infection outcomes. Mixed-effects multinomial logistic regression was undertaken to assess risk factors for intensity of Necator americanus and Ascaris infection. Results: 2152 participants provided stool and questionnaire information for this analysis. In adjusted models incorporating WASH, demographic and environmental variables, environmental variables were generally associated with infection intensity for both N. americanus and Ascaris spp. Precipitation (in centimetres) was associated with increased risk of moderate-intensity (adjusted relative risk [ARR] 6.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9–19.3) and heavy-intensity (ARR 6.6; 95% CI 3.1–14.1) N. americanus infection, as was sandy-loam soil around households (moderate-intensity ARR 2.1; 95% CI 1.0–4.3; heavy-intensity ARR 2.7; 95% CI 1.6–4.5; compared to no infection). For Ascaris, alkaline soil around the household was associated with reduced risk of moderate-intensity infection (ARR 0.21; 95% CI 0.09–0.51), and heavy-intensity infection (ARR 0.04; 95% CI 0.01–0.25). Few WASH risk factors were significant. Conclusion: In this high-prevalence setting, strong risk associ

OBJECTIVE: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is an emerging public health problem in Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to assess MDR-TB treatment outcomes and determine predictors of poor treatment outcomes in north-west Ethiopia. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using all MDR-TB patients who were enrolled at Gondar University Hospital since the establishment of the MDR-TB programme in 2010. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify the predictors of time to poor treatment outcomes, which were defined as death or treatment failure. RESULTS: Of the 242 patients who had complete records, 131 (54%) were cured, 23 (9%) completed treatment, 31 (13%) died, four (2%) experienced treatment failure, 27 (11%) were lost to follow-up, six (2%) transferred out, and 20 (8%) were still on treatment at the time of analysis. The overall cumulative probability survival of the patients at the end of treatment (which was 24 months in duration) was 80% (95% CI: 70%, 87%). The proportion of patients with poor treatment outcomes increased over time from 6% per person-year (PY) during 2010-2012, to 12% per PY during 2013-2015. The independent predictors of time to poor treatment outcome were being anaemic [AHR = 4.2; 95% CI: 1.1, 15.9] and being a farmer [AHR = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.0, 4.9]. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, in north-west Ethiopia, the MDR-TB treatment success rate was high. However, poor treatment outcomes have gradually increased since 2012. Being a farmer and being anaemic were associated with poor treatment outcomes. It would be beneficial to assess other risk factors that might affect treatment outcomes such as co-infection with malaria, poverty and other socio-economic and biological risk factors.

BACKGROUND: In Timor-Leste there have been intermittent and ineffective soil-transmitted helminth (STH) deworming programs since 2004. In a resource-constrained setting, having information on the geographic distribution of STH can aid in prioritising high risk communities for intervention. This study aimed to quantify the environmental risk factors for STH infection and to produce a risk map of STH in Manufahi district, Timor-Leste. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Georeferenced cross-sectional data and stool samples were obtained from 2,194 participants in 606 households in 24 villages in the Manufahi District as part of cross sectional surveys done in the context of the "WASH for Worms" randomised controlled trial. Infection status was determined for Ascaris lumbricoides and Necator americanus using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Baseline infection data were linked to environmental data obtained for each household. Univariable and multivariable multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression analysis with random effects at the village and household level were conducted, with all models adjusted for age and sex. For A. lumbricoides, being a school-aged child increased the odds of infection, whilst higher temperatures in the coolest quarter of the year, alkaline soils, clay loam/loam soils and woody savannas around households were associated with decreased infection odds. For N. americanus, greater precipitation in the driest month, higher average enhanced vegetation index, age and sandy loam soils increased infection odds, whereas being female and living at higher elevations decreased the odds of infection. Predictive risk maps generated for Manufahi based upon these final models highlight the high predicted risk of N. americanus infection across the district and the more focal nature of A. lumbricoides infection. The predicted risk of any STH infection is high across the entire district. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The widespread predicted risk of any

BACKGROUND: No investigations have been undertaken of risk factors for intensity of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infection in Timor-Leste. This study provides the first analysis of risk factors for intensity of STH infection, as determined by quantitative PCR (qPCR), examining a broad range of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) and environmental factors, among communities in Manufahi District, Timor-Leste. METHODS: A baseline cross-sectional survey of 18 communities was undertaken as part of a cluster randomised controlled trial, with additional identically-collected data from six other communities. qPCR was used to assess STH infection from stool samples, and questionnaires administered to collect WASH, demographic, and socioeconomic data. Environmental information was obtained from open-access sources and linked to infection outcomes. Mixed-effects multinomial logistic regression was undertaken to assess risk factors for intensity of Necator americanus and Ascaris infection. RESULTS: 2152 participants provided stool and questionnaire information for this analysis. In adjusted models incorporating WASH, demographic and environmental variables, environmental variables were generally associated with infection intensity for both N. americanus and Ascaris spp. Precipitation (in centimetres) was associated with increased risk of moderate-intensity (adjusted relative risk [ARR] 6.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9-19.3) and heavy-intensity (ARR 6.6; 95% CI 3.1-14.1) N. americanus infection, as was sandy-loam soil around households (moderate-intensity ARR 2.1; 95% CI 1.0-4.3; heavy-intensity ARR 2.7; 95% CI 1.6-4.5; compared to no infection). For Ascaris, alkaline soil around the household was associated with reduced risk of moderate-intensity infection (ARR 0.21; 95% CI 0.09-0.51), and heavy-intensity infection (ARR 0.04; 95% CI 0.01-0.25). Few WASH risk factors were significant. CONCLUSION: In this high-prevalence setting, strong risk associations with environment

BACKGROUND: Understanding the geographical distribution of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in high TB burden countries such as Ethiopia is crucial for effective control of TB epidemics in these countries, and thus globally. We present the first spatial analysis of multidrug resistant tuberculosis, and its relationship to socio-economic, demographic and household factors in northwest Ethiopia. METHODS: An ecological study was conducted using data on patients diagnosed with MDR-TB at the University of Gondar Hospital MDR-TB treatment centre, for the period 2010 to 2015. District level population data were extracted from the Ethiopia National and Regional Census Report. Spatial autocorrelation was explored using Moran's I statistic, Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), and the Getis-Ord statistics. A multivariate Poisson regression model was developed with a conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior structure, and with posterior parameters estimated using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach with Gibbs sampling, in WinBUGS. RESULTS: A total of 264 MDR-TB patients were included in the analysis. The overall crude incidence rate of MDR-TB for the six-year period was 3.0 cases per 100,000 population. The highest incidence rate was observed in Metema (21 cases per 100,000 population) and Humera (18 cases per 100,000 population) districts; whereas nine districts had zero cases. Spatial clustering of MDR-TB was observed in districts located in the Ethiopia-Sudan and Ethiopia-Eritrea border regions, where large numbers of seasonal migrants live. Spatial clustering of MDR-TB was positively associated with urbanization (RR: 1.02; 95%CI: 1.01, 1.04) and the percentage of men (RR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.26, 1.99) in the districts; after accounting for these factors there was no residual spatial clustering. CONCLUSION: Spatial clustering of MDR-TB, fully explained by demographic factors (urbanization and percent male), was detected in the border

BACKGROUND: The worldwide emergence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) has posed additional challenges for global tuberculosis (TB) control efforts, as limited treatment options are available and treatment outcomes are often sub-optimal. This study determined treatment outcomes among a cohort of MDR-TB and XDR-TB patients in Hunan Province, China, and identified factors associated with poor treatment outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study using data obtained from medical records of TB patients in Hunan Chest Hospital, and from the internet-based TB management information system managed by the Tuberculosis Control Institute of Hunan Province, for the period 2011 to 2014. Treatment outcomes were assessed for patients diagnosed with MDR-TB (TB resistant to at least isoniazid and rifampicin) and XDR-TB (MDR-TB plus resistance to any fluoroquinolone and at least 1 second-line injectable drug). Cumulative incidence functions were used to estimate time to events (i.e. poor treatment outcomes, loss to follow-up, and unfavourable treatment outcomes); and a competing-risks survival regression model was used to identify predictors of treatment outcomes. RESULT: Of 481 bacteriologically-confirmed patients, with a mean age of 40 years (standard deviation SD ± 13 years), 10 (2%) had XDR-TB and the remainder (471; 98%) had MDR-TB. For the entire cohort, treatment success was 57% (n = 275); 58% (n = 272) for MDR-TB and 30% (n = 3) for XDR-TB. Overall, 27% were lost to follow-up (n = 130), 27% (n = 126) for MDR-TB and 40% (n = 4) for XDR-TB; and 16% had a poor treatment outcome (n = 76), 15% for MDR-TB and 30% (n = 3) for XDR-TB. Of the 10 XDR-TB patients, 3 (30%) completed treatment, 3 (30%) died and 4 (40%) were lost to follow-up. Of the 471 MDR-TB patients, 258 (57%) were cured, 16 (3%) completed treatment, 13 (3%) died, 60 (13%) experienced treatment failure, and 126 (27%) were lost to follow-up. Resis

There is little evidence on prevalence or risk factors for soil transmitted helminth infections in Timor-Leste. This study describes the epidemiology, water, sanitation and hygiene, and socioeconomic risk factors of STH and intestinal protozoa amongst communities in Manufahi District, Timor-Leste. As part of a cluster randomised controlled trial, a baseline cross-sectional survey was conducted across 18 villages, with data from six additional villages. Stool samples were assessed for soil transmitted helminth and protozoal infections using quantitative PCR (qPCR) and questionnaires administered to collect water, sanitation and hygiene and socioeconomic data. Risk factors for infection were assessed using multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression, stratified by age group (preschool, school-aged and adult). Overall, soil transmitted helminth prevalence was 69% (95% Confidence Interval 67–71%), with Necator americanus being most common (60%; 95% Confidence Interval 58–62%) followed by Ascaris spp. (24%; 95% Confidence Interval 23–26%). Ascaris-N. americanus co-infection was common (17%; 95% Confidence Interval 15%-18%). Giardia duodenalis was the main protozoan identified (13%; 95% Confidence Interval 11–14%). Baseline water, sanitation and hygiene infrastructure and behaviours were poor. Although risk factors varied by age of participants and parasite species, risk factors for N. americanus infection included, generally, age in years, male sex, and socioeconomic quintile. Risk factors for Ascaris included age in years for children, and piped water to the yard for adults. In this first known assessment of community-based prevalence and associated risk factors in Timor-Leste, soil transmitted helminth infections were highly prevalent, indicating a need for soil transmitted helminth control. Few associations with water, sanitation and hygiene were evident, despite water, sanitation and hygiene being generally poor. In our water, sanitation and hygiene we will inves

BACKGROUND: Accurate quantitative assessment of infection with soil transmitted helminths and protozoa is key to the interpretation of epidemiologic studies of these parasites, as well as for monitoring large scale treatment efficacy and effectiveness studies. As morbidity and transmission of helminth infections are directly related to both the prevalence and intensity of infection, there is particular need for improved techniques for assessment of infection intensity for both purposes. The current study aimed to evaluate two multiplex PCR assays to determine prevalence and intensity of intestinal parasite infections, and compare them to standard microscopy. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Faecal samples were collected from a total of 680 people, originating from rural communities in Timor-Leste (467 samples) and Cambodia (213 samples). DNA was extracted from stool samples and subject to two multiplex real-time PCR reactions the first targeting: Necator americanus, Ancylostoma spp., Ascaris spp., and Trichuris trichiura; and the second Entamoeba histolytica, Cryptosporidium spp., Giardia. duodenalis, and Strongyloides stercoralis. Samples were also subject to sodium nitrate flotation for identification and quantification of STH eggs, and zinc sulphate centrifugal flotation for detection of protozoan parasites. Higher parasite prevalence was detected by multiplex PCR (hookworms 2.9 times higher, Ascaris 1.2, Giardia 1.6, along with superior polyparasitism detection with this effect magnified as the number of parasites present increased (one: 40.2% vs. 38.1%, two: 30.9% vs. 12.9%, three: 7.6% vs. 0.4%, four: 0.4% vs. 0%). Although, all STH positive samples were low intensity infections by microscopy as defined by WHO guidelines the DNA-load detected by multiplex PCR suggested higher intensity infections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Multiplex PCR, in addition to superior sensitivity, enabled more accurate determination of infection intensity for Ascaris, hookworms and Gi

BACKGROUND: Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) have acute and chronic manifestations, and can result in lifetime morbidity. Disease burden is difficult to quantify, yet quantitative evidence is required to justify large-scale deworming programmes. A recent Cochrane systematic review, which influences Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates for STH, has again called into question the evidence for deworming benefit on morbidity due to STH. In this narrative review, we investigate in detail what the shortfalls in evidence are. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We systematically reviewed recent literature that used direct measures to investigate morbidity from STH and we critically appraised systematic reviews, particularly the most recent Cochrane systematic review investigating deworming impact on morbidity. We included six systematic reviews and meta-analyses, 36 literature reviews, 44 experimental or observational studies, and five case series. We highlight where evidence is insufficient and where research needs to be directed to strengthen morbidity evidence, ideally to prove benefits of deworming. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Overall, the Cochrane systematic review and recent studies indicate major shortfalls in evidence for direct morbidity. However, it is questionable whether the systematic review methodology should be applied to STH due to heterogeneity of the prevalence of different species in each setting. Urgent investment in studies powered to detect direct morbidity effects due to STH is required.

BACKGROUND: Most hospitals have a hierarchical design with beds positioned within cubicles and cubicles positioned within wards. Transmission of MRSA may be facilitated by patient proximity and thus the spatial arrangements of beds, cubicles and wards could be important in understanding MRSA transmission risk. Identifying high-risk areas of transmission may be useful in the design of more effective, targeted MRSA interventions. METHODS: Retrospective data on numbers of multi-resistant and non-multiresistant MRSA acquisitions were collected for 52 weeks in 2007 in a tertiary hospital in Brisbane, Australia. A hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling approach was used to investigate spatial correlation in the hierarchically arranged datasets. The spatial component of the model decomposes cubicle-level variation into a spatially structured component and a spatially unstructured component, thereby encapsulating the influence of unmeasured predictor variables that themselves are spatially clustered and/or random. A fixed effect for the presence of another patient with the same type of MRSA in the cubicles two weeks prior was included. RESULTS: The best-fitting model for non-multiresistant MRSA had an unstructured random effect but no spatially structured random effect. The best-fitting model for multiresistant MRSA incorporated both spatially structured and unstructured random effects. While between-cubicle variability in risk of MRSA acquisition within the hospital was significant, there was only weak evidence to suggest that MRSA is spatially clustered. Presence of another patient with the same type of MRSA in the cubicles two weeks prior was a significant predictor of both types of MRSA in all models. CONCLUSIONS: We found weak evidence of clustering of MRSA acquisition within the hospital. The presence of an infected patient in the same cubicle two weeks prior may support the importance of environmental contamination as a source of MRSA transmission.

Typhoid is a systemic infection caused by Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi A, human-restricted bacteria that are transmitted faeco-orally. Salmonella Typhi and S. Paratyphi A are clonal, and their limited genetic diversity has precluded the identification of long-term transmission networks in areas with a high disease burden. To improve our understanding of typhoid transmission we have taken a novel approach, performing a longitudinal spatial case-control study for typhoid in Nepal, combining single-nucleotide polymorphism genotyping and case localization via global positioning. We show extensive clustering of typhoid occurring independent of population size and density. For the first time, we demonstrate an extensive range of genotypes existing within typhoid clusters, and even within individual households, including some resulting from clonal expansion. Furthermore, although the data provide evidence for direct human-to-human transmission, we demonstrate an overwhelming contribution of indirect transmission, potentially via contaminated water. Consistent with this, we detected S. Typhi and S. Paratyphi A in water supplies and found that typhoid was spatially associated with public water sources and low elevation. These findings have implications for typhoid-control strategies, and our innovative approach may be applied to other diseases caused by other monophyletic or emerging pathogens.

BACKGROUND: The Ministry of Health in the Republic of Vanuatu has implemented a malaria elimination programme in Tafea Province, the most southern and eastern limit of malaria transmission in the South West Pacific. Tafea Province is comprised of five islands with malaria elimination achieved on one of these islands (Aneityum) in 1998. The current study aimed to establish the baseline distribution of malaria on the most malarious of the province's islands, Tanna Island, to guide the implementation of elimination activities. METHODS: A parasitological survey was conducted in Tafea Province in 2008. On Tanna Island there were 4,716 participants from 220 villages, geo-referenced using a global position system. Spatial autocorrelation in observed prevalence values was assessed using a semivariogram. Backwards step-wise regression analysis was conducted to determine the inclusion of environmental and climatic variables into a prediction model. The Bayesian geostatistical logistic regression model was used to predict malaria risk, and associated uncertainty across the island. RESULTS: Overall, prevalence on Tanna was 1.0% for Plasmodium falciparum (accounting for 32% of infections) and 2.2% for Plasmodium vivax (accounting for 68% of infections). Regression analysis showed significant association with elevation and distance to coastline for P. vivax and P. falciparum, but no significant association with NDVI or TIR. Colinearity was observed between elevation and distance to coastline with the later variable included in the final Bayesian geostatistical model for P. vivax and the former included in the final model for P. falciparum. Model validation statistics revealed that the final Bayesian geostatistical model had good predictive ability. CONCLUSION: Malaria in Tanna Island, Vanuatu, has a focal and predominantly coastal distribution. As Vanuatu refines its elimination strategy, malaria risk maps represent an invaluable resource in the strategic planning of all levels o

Enteric fever, caused by Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi A (S. Typhi and S. Paratyphi A) remains a major public health problem in many settings. The disease is limited to locations with poor sanitation which facilitates the transmission of the infecting organisms. Efficacious and inexpensive vaccines are available for S. Typhi, yet are not commonly deployed to control the disease. Lack of vaccination is due partly to uncertainty of the disease burden arising from a paucity of epidemiological information in key locations. We have collected and analyzed data from 3,898 cases of blood culture-confirmed enteric fever from Patan Hospital in Lalitpur Sub-Metropolitan City (LSMC), between June 2005 and May 2009. Demographic data was available for a subset of these patients (n = 527) that were resident in LSMC and who were enrolled in trials. We show a considerable burden of enteric fever caused by S. Typhi (2,672; 68.5%) and S. Paratyphi A (1,226; 31.5%) at this Hospital over a four year period, which correlate with seasonal fluctuations in rainfall. We found that local population density was not related to incidence and we identified a focus of infections in the east of LSMC. With data from patients resident in LSMC we found that the median age of those with S. Typhi (16 years) was significantly less than S. Paratyphi A (20 years) and that males aged 15 to 25 were disproportionately infected. Our findings provide a snapshot into the epidemiological patterns of enteric fever in Kathmandu. The uneven distribution of enteric fever patients within the population suggests local variation in risk factors, such as contaminated drinking water. These findings are important for initiating a vaccination scheme and improvements in sanitation. We suggest any such intervention should be implemented throughout the LSMC area.

BACKGROUND To allow direct comparison of bloodstream infection (BSI) rates between hospitals for performance measurement, observed rates need to be risk adjusted according to the types of patients cared for by the hospital. However, attribute data on all individual patients are often unavailable and hospital-level risk adjustment needs to be done using indirect indicator variables of patient case mix, such as hospital level. We aimed to identify medical services associated with high or low BSI rates, and to evaluate the services provided by the hospital as indicators that can be used for more objective hospital-level risk adjustment. METHODS From February 2001-December 2007, 1719 monthly BSI counts were available from 18 hospitals in Queensland, Australia. BSI outcomes were stratified into four groups: overall BSI (OBSI), Staphylococcus aureus BSI (STAPH), intravascular device-related S. aureus BSI (IVD-STAPH) and methicillin-resistant S. aureus BSI (MRSA). Twelve services were considered as candidate risk-adjustment variables. For OBSI, STAPH and IVD-STAPH, we developed generalized estimating equation Poisson regression models that accounted for autocorrelation in longitudinal counts. Due to a lack of autocorrelation, a standard logistic regression model was specified for MRSA. RESULTS Four risk services were identified for OBSI: AIDS (IRR 2.14, 95% CI 1.20 to 3.82), infectious diseases (IRR 2.72, 95% CI 1.97 to 3.76), oncology (IRR 1.60, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.98) and bone marrow transplants (IRR 1.52, 95% CI 1.14 to 2.03). Four protective services were also found. A similar but smaller group of risk and protective services were found for the other outcomes. Acceptable agreement between observed and fitted values was found for the OBSI and STAPH models but not for the IVD-STAPH and MRSA models. However, the IVD-STAPH and MRSA models successfully discriminated between hospitals with higher and lower BSI rates. CONCLUSION The high model goodness-of-fit and the higher freq