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How do professionals forecast in uncertain times, when the relationships between variables that held in the past may no longer be useful for forecasting the future? For inflation forecasting, we answer this question by measuring survey respondents' adherence to their pre‐COVID‐19 Phillips curve models during the pandemic. We also ask whether professionals ought to have put their trust in their Phillips curve models over the COVID‐19 period. We address these questions allowing for heterogeneity in respondents' forecasts and in their perceptions of the Phillips curve relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the clustering behavior of price and variance jumps using high-frequency data, modeled as a marked Hawkes process (MHP) embedded in a bivariate jump-diffusion model with intraday periodic effects. We find that the jumps of both individual stocks and a broad index exhibit self-exciting behavior. The three dimensions of the model, namely positive price jumps, negative price jumps, and variance jumps, impact one another in an asymmetric fashion. We estimate model parameters using Bayesian inference by Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and find that the inclusion of the jump parameters improves the fit of the model. When we quantify the jump intensity and study the characteristics of jump clusters, we find that in high-frequency settings, jump clustering can last between 2.5 and 6 hours on average. We also find that the MHP generally outperforms other models in terms of reproducing two cluster-related characteristics found in the actual data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to propose an experiential entrepreneurship work-integrated learning (EE WIL) model recognising that the development of an entrepreneurial mindset enables graduates to manage their careers in uncertain labour markets. The model shows how students develop relationships with their professional community, and not only a few employers. Design/methodology/approach: The pedagogical underpinning of the conceptual model, attributes associated with the entrepreneurial mindset and relationships between the student, professional community and university are explained, and illustrated through a case study at the University of the Sunshine Coast. Findings: The EE WIL model enables students to develop agency through structured engagement with a professional community, facilitating the development of bridging social capital. Bonding social capital can be developed through intense, sustained interaction between students and their professional community. Practical implications: WIL curricula should be scaffolded and directed towards developing sustained interaction and information sharing, underpinned by professional community norms. This approach enables students to develop an aligned professional identity and emotional attachment to the professional community. The experiential development of an entrepreneurial mindset enables students to solve career challenges, by viewing these as opportunities. Professional communities and universities both share the responsibilities of preparing the future graduate workforce. Originality/value: The conceptual model draws on effectual entrepreneurship pedagogy and contributes to the WIL literature, showing that an entrepreneurial mindset can be cultivated experientially through an intensive, emotional and authentic learning experience.