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Introduction Up to 15% of adult patients in the clinical setting report to be allergic to penicillin. However, in most cases, penicillin allergy is not confirmed. Due to the negative aspects associated with erroneous penicillin allergy, the implementation of active delabelling processes for penicillin allergy is an important part of antibiotic stewardship programmes. Depending on the clinical setting, different factors need to be considered during implementation. This review examines the effectiveness of different delabelling interventions and summarises components and structures that facilitate, support or constrain structured penicillin allergy delabelling.Methods and analysis This review will adhere to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. The databases MEDLINE (via PubMed), EMBASE and Cochrane Library were searched for studies reporting on any intervention to identify, assess or rule out uncertain penicillin allergy. To improve completeness, two further databases are also searched for grey literature. Study design, intervention type, professional groups involved, effectiveness, limitations, barriers, facilitating factors, clinical setting and associated regulatory factors will be extracted and analysed. In addition, exclusion criteria for participation in the delabelling intervention and criteria for not delabelling penicillin allergy will be summarised. In case of failed protocols, these are highlighted and quantitatively analysed if possible. Two independent reviewers will perform the screening process and data extraction. Discordant decisions will be resolved through review by a third reviewer. Bias assessment of the individual studies will be performed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale.Ethics and dissemination Because individual patient-related data are not analysed, an ethical approval is not required. The review will be published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.

Although a majority of SARS-COV-2 diagnosis are asymptomatic, presymptimatic or minimally symptomatic, little has been described and understood about the illness careers of these individuals. This study explored the lived experience of a SARS-COV-2 diagnosis and subsequent quarantine among individuals in Germany who were diagnosed with SARS-COV-2 during the second wave of the pandemic (late 2020-early 2021), but whose diagnosis was unexpected due to a lack of a known contact, or the asymptomatic nature of their case at the time of diagnosis. In-depth interviews (n ​= ​22) were conducted by phone or video call, audio-recorded, and transcribed verbatim. Routine debriefings guided data collection and facilitated analysis, which followed a framework approach. Regardless of age, gender or socioeconomic status, data consistently demonstrated a diagnosis and quarantine career marked by five emotional phases: overconfidence, shock and denial, coming to grips and asking questions, enduring, and cautious optimism as quarantine ended. These experiences suggest that providing trustworthy, easily accessible information regarding certain key aspects of the post diagnosis and quarantine period could benefit patients in terms of reducing stress, understanding the consequences of a diagnosis and mitigating foreseeable challenges in terms of personal, logistical and emotional issues. Follow-up research with providers and public health bureaus could inform how to best tailor such messaging for clients who experience an unexpected diagnosis.

Abstract Background To achieve higher effectiveness in population-based SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and to reliably predict the course of an outbreak, screening, and monitoring of infected individuals without major symptoms (about 40% of the population) will be necessary. While current testing capacities are also used to identify such asymptomatic cases, this rather passive approach is not suitable in generating reliable population-based estimates of the prevalence of asymptomatic carriers to allow any dependable predictions on the course of the pandemic. Methods This trial implements a two-factorial, randomized, controlled, multi-arm, prospective, interventional, single-blinded design with cluster sampling and four study arms, each representing a different SARS-CoV-2 testing and surveillance strategy based on individuals’ self-collection of saliva samples which are then sent to and analyzed by a laboratory. The targeted sample size for the trial is 10,000 saliva samples equally allocated to the four study arms (2500 participants per arm). Strategies differ with respect to tested population groups (individuals vs. all household members) and testing approach (without vs. with pre-screening survey). The trial is complemented by an economic evaluation and qualitative assessment of user experiences. Primary outcomes include costs per completely screened person, costs per positive case, positive detection rate, and precision of positive detection rate. Discussion Systems for active surveillance of the general population will gain more importance in the context of pandemics and related disease prevention efforts. The pandemic parameters derived from such active surveillance with routine population monitoring therefore not only enable a prospective assessment of the short-term course of a pandemic, but also a more targeted and thus more effective use of local and short-term countermeasures. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov DRKS00023271 . Registered November 30, 2020, with the German Clinical Trials Register (Deutsches Register Klinischer Studien)

Abstract Objectives In this cluster-randomised controlled study (CoV-Surv Study), four different “active” SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies for general population surveillance are evaluated for their effectiveness in determining and predicting the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in a given population. In addition, the costs and cost-effectiveness of the four surveillance strategies will be assessed. Further, this trial is supplemented by a qualitative component to determine the acceptability of each strategy. Findings will inform the choice of the most effective, acceptable and affordable strategy for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance, with the most effective and cost-effective strategy becoming part of the local public health department’s current routine health surveillance activities. Investigating its everyday performance will allow us to examine the strategy’s applicability to real time prevalence prediction and the usefulness of the resulting information for local policy makers to implement countermeasures that effectively prevent future nationwide lockdowns. The authors would like to emphasize the importance and relevance of this study and its expected findings in the context of population-based disease surveillance, especially in respect to the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In Germany, but also in many other countries, COVID-19 surveillance has so far largely relied on passive surveillance strategies that identify individuals with clinical symptoms, monitor those cases who then tested positive for the virus, followed by tracing of individuals in close contact to those positive cases. To achieve higher effectiveness in population surveillance and to reliably predict the course of an outbreak, screening and monitoring of infected individuals without major symptoms (about 40% of the population) will be necessary. While current testing capacities are also used to identify such asymptomatic cases, this rather passive approach is not suitable in generating reliable population-based estimates of the prevalence of asymptomatic carriers to allow any dependable predictions on the course of the pandemic. To better control and manage the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, current strategies therefore need to be complemented by an active surveillance of the wider population, i.e. routinely conducted testing and monitoring activities to identify and isolate infected individuals regardless of their clinical symptoms. Such active surveillance strategies will enable more effective prevention of the spread of the virus as they can generate more precise population-based parameters during a pandemic. This essential information will be required in order to determine the best strategic and targeted short-term countermeasures to limit infection spread locally. Trial design This trial implements a cluster-randomised, two-factorial controlled, prospective, interventional, single-blinded design with four study arms, each representing a different SARS-CoV-2 testing and surveillance strategy. Participants Eligible are individuals age 7 years or older living in Germany’s Rhein-Neckar Region who consent to provide a saliva sample (all four arms) after completion of a brief questionnaire (two arms only). For the qualitative component, different samples of study participants and non-participants (i.e. eligible for study, but refuse to participate) will be identified for additional interviews. For these interviews, only individuals age 18 years or older are eligible. Intervention and comparator Of the four surveillance strategies to be assessed and compared, Strategy A1 is considered the gold standard for prevalence estimation and used to determine bias in other arms. To determine the cost-effectiveness, each strategy is compared to status quo, defined as the currently practiced passive surveillance approach. Strategy A1: Individuals (one per household) receive information and study material by mail with instructions on how to produce a saliva sample and how to return the sample by mail. Once received by the laboratory, the sample is tested for SARS-CoV-2 using Reverse Transcription Loop-mediated Isothermal Amplification (RT-LAMP). Strategy A2: Individuals (one per household) receive information and study material by mail with instructions on how to produce their own as well as saliva samples from each household member and how to return these samples by mail. Once received by the laboratory, the samples are tested for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-LAMP. Strategy B1: Individuals (one per household) receive information by mail on how to complete a brief pre-screening questionnaire which asks about COVID-19 related clinical symptoms and risk exposures. Only individuals whose pre-screening score crosses a defined threshold, will then receive additional study material by mail with instructions on how to produce a saliva sample and how to return the sample by mail. Once received by the laboratory, the saliva sample is tested for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-LAMP. Strategy B2: Individuals (one per household) receive information by mail on how to complete a brief pre-screening questionnaire which asks about COVID-19 related clinical symptoms. Only individuals whose pre-screening score crosses a defined threshold, will then receive additional study material by mail with instructions how to produce their own as well as saliva samples from each household member and how to return these samples by mail. Once received by the laboratory, the samples are tested for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-LAMP. In each strategy, RT-LAMP positive samples are additionally analyzed with qPCR in order to minimize the number of false positives. Main outcomes The identification of the one best strategy will be determined by a set of parameters. Primary outcomes include costs per correctly screened person, costs per positive case, positive detection rate, and precision of positive detection rate. Secondary outcomes include participation rate, costs per asymptomatic case, prevalence estimates, number of asymptomatic cases per study arm, ratio of symptomatic to asymptomatic cases per study arm, participant satisfaction. Additional study components (not part of the trial) include cost effectiveness of each of the four surveillance strategies compared to passive monitoring (i.e. status quo), development of a prognostic model to predict hospital utilization caused by SARS-CoV-2, time from test shipment to test application and time from test shipment to test result, and perception and preferences of the persons to be tested with regard to test strategies. Randomisation Samples are drawn in three batches of three continuous weeks. Randomisation follows a two-stage process. First, a total of 220 sampling points have been allocated to the three different batches. To obtain an integer solution, the Cox-algorithm for controlled rounding has been used. Afterwards, sample points have been drawn separately per batch, following a probability proportional to size (PPS) random sample. Second, for each cluster the same number of residential addresses is randomly sampled from the municipal registries (self-weighted sample of individuals). The 28,125 addresses drawn per municipality are then randomly allocated to the four study arms A1, A2, B1, and B2 in the ratio 5 to 2.5 to 14 to 7 based on the expected response rates in each arm and the sensitivity and specificity of the pre-screening tool as applied in strategy B1 and B2. Based on the assumptions, this allocation should yield 2500 saliva samples in each strategy. Although a municipality can be sampled by multiple batches and the overall number of addresses per municipality might vary, the number of addresses contacted in each arm is kept constant. Blinding (masking) The design is single-blinded, meaning the staff conducting the SARS-CoV-2 tests are unaware of the study arm assignment of each single participant and test sample. Sample sizes Total sample size for the trial is 10,000 saliva samples equally allocated to the four study arms (i.e. 2,500 participants per arm). For the qualitative component, up to 60 in-depth interviews will be conducted with about 30 study participants (up to 15 in each arm A and B) and 30 participation refusers (up to 15 in each arm A and B) purposefully selected from the quantitative study sample to represent a variety of gender and ages to explore experiences with admission or rejection of study participation. Up to 25 asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 positive study participants will be purposefully selected to explore the way in which asymptomatic men and women diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 give meaning to their diagnosis and to the dialectic between feeling concurrently healthy and yet also being at risk for transmitting COVID-19. In addition, 100 randomly selected study participants will be included to explore participants’ perspective on testing processes and implementation. Trial Status Final protocol version is “Surveillance_Studienprotokoll_03Nov2020_v1_2” from November 3, 2020. Recruitment started November 18, 2020 and is expected to end by or before December 31, 2020. Trial registration The trial is currently being registered with the German Clinical Trials Register (Deutsches Register Klinischer Studien), DRKS00023271 ( https://www.drks.de/drks_web/navigate.do?navigationId=trial . HTML&TRIAL_ID=DRKS00023271). Retrospectively registered 30 November 2020. Full protocol The full protocol is attached as an additional file, accessible from the Trials website (Additional file 1). In the interest in expediting dissemination of this material, the familiar formatting has been eliminated; this Letter serves as a summary of the key elements of the full protocol.

Abstract Background The current low access to virological testing to confirm chronic viraemic HCV infection in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) is limiting the rollout of hepatitis C (HCV) care. Existing tests are complex, costly and require sophisticated laboratory infrastructure. Diagnostic manufacturers need guidance on the optimal characteristics a virological test needs to have to ensure the greatest impact on HCV diagnosis and treatment in LMIC. Our objective was to develop a target product profile (TPP) for diagnosis of HCV viraemia using a global stakeholder consensus-based approach. Methods Based on the standardised process established to develop consensus-based TPPs, we followed five key steps. (i) Identifying key potential global stakeholders for consultation and input into the TPP development process. (ii) Informal priority-setting exercise with key experts to identify the needs that should be the highest priority for the TPP development; (iii) Defining the key TPP domains (scope, performance and operational characteristics and price). (iv) Delphi-like process with larger group of key stakeholder to facilitate feedback on the key TPP criteria and consensus building based on pre-defined consensus criteria. (v) A final consensus-gathering meeting for discussions around disputed criteria. A complementary values and preferences survey helped to assess trade-offs between different key characteristics. Results The following key attributes for the TPP for a test to confirm HCV viraemic infection were identified: The scope defined is for both HCV detection as well as confirmation of cure. The timeline of development for tests envisioned in the TPP is 5 years. The test should be developed for use by health-care workers or laboratory technicians with limited training in countries with a medium to high prevalence of HCV (1.5–3.5% and >3.5%) and in high-risk populations in low prevalence settings (

Abstract Background Access to hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnostics remains a key bottleneck in scale-up of access to HBV and HCV treatment, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) that lack laboratory resources and skilled personnel. To inform the development of World Health Organization (WHO) testing guidelines on who to test and how to test, we performed a “values and preferences” survey of end users and implementers of hepatitis testing in LMICs on current hepatitis B and C testing practices and acceptability of diagnostic approaches, as well as preferences for the future. Methods The survey consisted of a four-part, 28 question online survey tool using SurveyMonkey software. The invitation to participate was sent via email to a network of contacts in hepatitis clinical care, research, advocacy and industry. Results The survey collected responses on current testing practices from 48 respondents in 23 LMICs. Only a small proportion of hepatitis testing is currently funded through government-supported programmes. Most limit their testing programmes to blood donor screening and although testing is recommended in several populations, this is not well implemented. Also, there is still very limited access to virological testing. Conclusions The survey showed that HBV and HCV testing programmes in LMICs are inadequate and/or scarce. Lack of affordable diagnostic tests; lack of funding, public education and awareness; absence of national policies and guidelines; and a dearth of skilled health professionals are the most important barriers to scaling up HBV and HCV diagnosis and treatment.

Background: Xpert® MTB/RIF, a rapid tuberculosis (TB) molecular test, was endorsed by the World Health Organization in 2010. Since then, 34.4 million cartridges have been procured under concessional pricing. Although the roll out of this diagnostic is promising, previous studies showed low market penetration. Methods: To assess 3-year trends of market penetration of Xpert MTB/RIF in the public sector, smear and Xpert MTB/RIF volumes for the year 2016 were evaluated and policies from 2014-2016 within 22 high-burden countries (HBCs) were studied. A structured questionnaire was sent to representatives of 22 HBCs. The questionnaires assessed the total smear and Xpert MTB/RIF volumes, number of modules and days of operation of GeneXpert machines in National TB Programs (NTPs). Data regarding the use of NTP GeneXpert machines for other diseases and GeneXpert procurement by other disease control programs were collected. Market penetration was estimated by the ratio of total sputum smear volume for initial diagnosis divided by the number of Xpert MTB/RIF tests procured in the public sector. Results: The survey response rate was 21/22 (95%). Smear/Xpert ratios decreased in 17/21 countries and increased in four countries, since 2014. The median ratio decreased from 32.6 (IQR: 44.6) in 2014 to 6.0 (IQR: 15.4) in 2016. In 2016, the median GeneXpert utilization was 20%, however seven countries (7/19; 37%) were running tests for other diseases on their NTP-procured GeneXpert systems in 2017, such as HIV, hepatitis-C virus (HCV), Chlamydia trachomatis, and Neisseria gonorrhoeae. Five (5/15; 33%) countries reported GeneXpert procurement by HIV or HCV programs in 2016 and/or 2017. Conclusions: Our results show a positive trend for Xpert MTB/RIF market penetration in 21 HBC public sectors. However, GeneXpert machines were under-utilized for TB, and inadequately exploited as a multi disease technology.

Background: Xpert® MTB/RIF, a rapid tuberculosis (TB) molecular test, was endorsed by the World Health Organization in 2010. Since then, 34.4 million cartridges have been procured under concessional pricing. Although the roll out of this diagnostic is promising, previous studies showed low market penetration. Methods: To assess 3-year trends of market penetration of Xpert MTB/RIF in the public sector, smear and Xpert MTB/RIF volumes for the year 2016 were assessed and policies from 2014-2016 within 22 high-burden countries (HBCs) were studied. A structured questionnaire was sent to representatives of 22 HBCs. The questionnaires assessed the total smear and Xpert MTB/RIF volumes, number of modules and days of operation of GeneXpert machines in National TB Programs (NTPs). Data regarding the use of NTP GeneXpert machines for other diseases and GeneXpert procurement by other disease control programs were collected. Market penetration was estimated by the ratio of total sputum smear volume for initial diagnosis divided by the number of Xpert MTB/RIF tests procured in the public sector. Results: The survey response rate was 21/22 (95%). Smear/Xpert ratios decreased in 17/21 countries and increased in four countries, since 2014. The median ratio decreased from 32.6 (Q1:14.3, Q3: 58.9) in 2014 to 6.0 (Q1: 1.6, Q3: 17.0) in 2016. Nineteen countries (19/19; 100%) were not using GeneXpert machines to their full capacity, however seven countries (7/19; 37%) were running tests for other diseases on their NTP-procured GeneXpert systems in 2017, such as HIV, hepatitis-C virus (HCV), Chlamydia trachomatis, and Neisseria gonorrhoeae. Five (5/15; 33%) countries reported GeneXpert procurement by HIV or HCV programs in 2016 and/or 2017. Conclusions: Our results show a positive trend for Xpert MTB/RIF market penetration in 21 HBC public sectors. However, GeneXpert machines were under-utilized for TB, and inadequately exploited as a multi disease technology.

Unlike in adults, diagnosis of TB can be challenging in children, as signs and symptoms of paediatric TB can be very non-specific and similar to other common childhood chest infections, which may lead to under or delayed diagnosis of TB disease. In spite of the increasing availability of rapid high-sensitivity diagnostics in public and private sectors, majority of paediatric TB cases are empirically diagnosed, without laboratory confirmation. To address these diagnostic challenges, World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended upfront Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) testing for the diagnosis of TB in paediatric presumptive pulmonary and extra-pulmonary TB (EPTB) cases. However, in spite of the increasing availability of rapid high-sensitivity diagnostics, a significant gap exists in its application with Xpert being rarely used as an upfront diagnostic among patients presumed to have TB. Under an ongoing paediatric project since April 2014, which provided free-of-cost upfront Xpert testing, several low-cost outreach and education interventions were undertaken to increase the diagnostic uptake by different providers catering to the paediatric population, thereby increasing adherence to global guidance.Providers catering to paediatric population in the project cities were systematically mapped and contacted using different outreach strategies. The focus of outreach efforts was to increase provider literacy and increase their awareness of the availability of free rapid diagnostic services with the goal of changing their diagnostic approaches.From April 2014 to June 2016, more than 5,700 providers/facilities were mapped and 3,670 of them were approached. The number of providers/facilities engaged under the project increased more than 10-fold (43 in April, 2014 to 466 in June, 2016), with significant increase in project uptake, both from public and private sector. Overall 42,238 paediatric presumptive TB cases were enrolled in the project, across the four cities. Over the project period, quarterly diagnostic uptake and paediatric TB cases detection rates increased more than two-fold. TB detection rates were similar in patients from public and private sectors.Ongoing efforts in scaling up new rapid diagnostics involves significant investments. These efforts need to be complemented with proactive provider engagement to ensure provider-literacy and awareness, for maximizing impact of this scale-up. The current project demonstrated the usefulness of outreach and education interventions for the effective uptake of newer diagnostics.

India is considering the scale-up of the Xpert MTB/RIF assay for detection of tuberculosis (TB) and rifampicin resistance. We conducted an economic analysis to estimate the costs of different strategies of Xpert implementation in India.Using a decision analytical model, we compared four diagnostic strategies for TB patients: (i) sputum smear microscopy (SSM) only; (ii) Xpert as a replacement for the rapid diagnostic test currently used for SSM-positive patients at risk of drug resistance (i.e. line probe assay (LPA)); (iii) Upfront Xpert testing for patients at risk of drug resistance; and (iv) Xpert as a replacement for SSM for all patients.The total costs associated with diagnosis for 100,000 presumptive TB cases were: (i) US$ 619,042 for SSM-only; (ii) US$ 575,377 in the LPA replacement scenario; (iii) US$ 720,523 in the SSM replacement scenario; and (iv) US$ 1,639,643 in the Xpert-for-all scenario. Total cohort costs, including treatment costs, increased by 46% from the SSM-only to the Xpert-for-all strategy, largely due to the costs associated with second-line treatment of a higher number of rifampicin-resistant patients due to increased drug-resistant TB (DR-TB) case detection. The diagnostic costs for an estimated 7.64 million presumptive TB patients would comprise (i) 19%, (ii) 17%, (iii) 22% and (iv) 50% of the annual TB control budget. Mean total costs, expressed per DR-TB case initiated on treatment, were lowest in the Xpert-for-all scenario (US$ 11,099).The Xpert-for-all strategy would result in the greatest increase of TB and DR-TB case detection, but would also have the highest associated costs. The strategy of using Xpert only for patients at risk for DR-TB would be more affordable, but would miss DR-TB cases and the cost per true DR-TB case detected would be higher compared to the Xpert-for-all strategy. As such expanded Xpert strategy would require significant increased TB control budget to ensure that increased case detection is followed by appropriate care.

BACKGROUND:Tuberculosis remains a major public health challenge for India. Various studies have documented different levels of TB and multi-drug resistant (MDR) TB among diverse groups of the population. In view of renewed targets set under the End TB strategy by 2035, there is an urgent need for TB diagnosis to be strengthened. Drawing on data from a recent, multisite study, we address key questions for TB diagnosis amongst symptomatics presenting for care: are there subgroups of patients that are more likely than others, to be positive for TB? In turn, amongst these positive cases, are there factors-apart from treatment history-that may be predictive for multi-drug resistance? METHODS:We used data from a multi-centric prospective demonstration study, conducted from March 2012 to December 2013 in 18 sub-district level TB programme units (TUs) in India and covering a population of 8.8 million. In place of standard diagnostic tests, upfront Xpert MTB/RIF testing was offered to all presumptive TB symptomatics. Here, using data from this study, we used logistic regression to identify association between risk factors and TB and Rifampicin-Resistant TB among symptomatics enrolled in the study. RESULTS:We find that male gender; history of TB treatment; and adult age compared with either children or the elderly are risk factors associated with high TB detection amongst symptomatics, across the TUs. While treatment history is found be a significant risk factor for rifampicin-resistant TB, elderly (65+ yrs) people have significantly lower risk than other age groups. However, pediatric TB cases have no less risk of rifampicin resistance as compared with adults (OR 1.23 (95% C.I. 0.85-1.76)). Similarly, risk of rifampicin resistance among both the genders was the same. These patterns applied across the study sites involved. Notably in Mumbai, amongst those patients with microbiological confirmation of TB, female patients showed a higher risk of having MDR-TB than male patients. CONCLUSION:Our results cast fresh light on the characteristics of symptomatics presenting for care who are most likely to be microbiologically positive for TB, and for rifampicin resistance. The challenges posed by TB control are complex and multifactorial: evidence from diverse sources, including retrospective studies such as that addressed here, can be invaluable in informing future strategies to accelerate declines in TB burden.

BACKGROUND:Xpert MTB/RIF, the first automated molecular test for tuberculosis, is transforming the diagnostic landscape in high-burden settings. This study assessed the impact of up-front Xpert MTB/RIF testing on detection of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and rifampicin-resistant PTB (DR-TB) cases in India. METHODS:This demonstration study was implemented in 18 sub-district level TB programme units (TUs) in India in diverse geographic and demographic settings covering a population of 8.8 million. A baseline phase in 14 TUs captured programmatic baseline data, and an intervention phase in 18 TUs had Xpert MTB/RIF offered to all presumptive TB patients. We estimated changes in detection of TB and DR-TB, the former using binomial regression models to adjust for clustering and covariates. RESULTS:In the 14 study TUs, which participated in both phases, 10,675 and 70,556 presumptive TB patients were enrolled in the baseline and intervention phase, respectively, and 1,532 (14.4%) and 14,299 (20.3%) bacteriologically confirmed PTB cases were detected. The implementation of Xpert MTB/RIF was associated with increases in both notification rates of bacteriologically confirmed TB cases (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 1.39; CI 1.18-1.64), and proportion of bacteriological confirmed TB cases among presumptive TB cases (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.33; CI 1.6-1.52). Compared with the baseline strategy of selective drug-susceptibility testing only for PTB cases at high risk of drug-resistant TB, Xpert MTB/RIF implementation increased rifampicin resistant TB case detection by over fivefold. Among, 2765 rifampicin resistance cases detected, 1055 were retested with conventional drug susceptibility testing (DST). Positive predictive value (PPV) of rifampicin resistance detected by Xpert MTB/RIF was 94.7% (CI 91.3-98.1), in comparison to conventional DST. CONCLUSION:Introduction of Xpert MTB/RIF as initial diagnostic test for TB in public health facilities significantly increased case-notification rates of all bacteriologically confirmed TB by 39% and rifampicin-resistant TB case notification by fivefold.

In India as elsewhere, multi-drug resistance (MDR) poses a serious challenge in the control of tuberculosis (TB). The End TB strategy, recently approved by the world health assembly, aims to reduce TB deaths by 95% and new cases by 90% between 2015 and 2035. A key pillar of this approach is early diagnosis of tuberculosis, including use of higher-sensitivity diagnostic testing and universal rapid drug susceptibility testing (DST). Despite limitations of current laboratory assays, universal access to rapid DST could become more feasible with the advent of new and emerging technologies. Here we use a mathematical model of TB transmission, calibrated to the TB epidemic in India, to explore the potential impact of a major national scale-up of rapid DST. To inform key parameters in a clinical setting, we take GeneXpert as an example of a technology that could enable such scale-up. We draw from a recent multi-centric demonstration study conducted in India that involved upfront Xpert MTB/RIF testing of all TB suspects.We find that widespread, public-sector deployment of high-sensitivity diagnostic testing and universal DST appropriately linked with treatment could substantially impact MDR-TB in India. Achieving 75% access over 3 years amongst all cases being diagnosed for TB in the public sector alone could avert over 180,000 cases of MDR-TB (95% CI 44187 - 317077 cases) between 2015 and 2025. Sufficiently wide deployment of Xpert could, moreover, turn an increasing MDR epidemic into a diminishing one. Synergistic effects were observed with assumptions of simultaneously improving MDR-TB treatment outcomes. Our results illustrate the potential impact of new and emerging technologies that enable widespread, timely DST, and the important effect that universal rapid DST in the public sector can have on the MDR-TB epidemic in India.