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The study assesses the impact of the first package of the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (or TRAIN), which includes an increase in petroleum and coal excise taxes, passed by Congress in 2017. The study also reviews the context of the energy sector in the country given that petroleum and coal are the largest sources of energy in the country. Using a computable general equilibrium- microsimulation model, this paper focused on the impact of the increase in petroleum and coal excise taxes and the whole TRAIN 1 package (which includes a reduction in the personal income tax and the broadening of the value added tax). Results from the simulations indicate a slight adverse output effect for most industries under an increase in petroleum and coal taxes scenario. Under the whole TRAIN package, the output effects are slightly positive, especially for the several agriculture and service sectors, resulting in a higher level of carbon emissions. There is a slight rise in employment under the whole package, but poverty incidence increases slightly as excise taxes have an adverse effect in terms of higher commodities prices among the poor.

This paper provides estimates of trade costs of the Philippines with her key trading partners, and develops a framework for assessing their welfare cost. With tariff restrictions reduced significantly following several rounds of multilateral and regional trade negotiations, non-tariff barriers (NTBs) have emerged as key in slowing down trade flows. Given the proliferation of NTMs in the world today, chances are some of those are disguised NTBs. More importantly however, the inefficiencies associated with implementing legitimate NTMs such as the SPS on agricultural imports become unnecessary barriers to trade. This is the fat in trade costs that need to be eliminated through trade facilitation, while policy reforms would have to deal with redundant NTMs, whose claim to resources adds to the cost imposed by inefficient implementation of legitimate NTMs. This paper came up with a CGE model analytical structure for assessing the gains of lowering trade costs.

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) transforms the ASEAN region into a single market and production base by 2015. This promotes greater competition for the Philippine agriculture and fisheries (A and F) sectors. With the country's A and F sector lagging behind its neighboring ASEAN countries, there are fears that local industries will be displaced. The Global Trade Analysis model suggests an increase in both imports and exports as an impact of tariff reforms. The sectors ready for integration include mangoes, bananas, and pineapples. For the coconut sector, intensification of planting, replanting, and product diversification are needed to enhance and maintain supply. Production increase for perishable commodities, such as onions and meats, entails the need for lower power costs. With corn as a potential export commodity, cultivation areas are being expanded and agricultural policies are being aligned with the policies of the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement. To reap the benefits from the AEC, several measures must be performed, i.e., diversification and product quality upgrading. Public support must focus on providing adequate infrastructure, general services, research and development, and extension programs. Particularly, this paper recommends modernizing the country's value chains in the A and F sector to effectively mobilize A and F exports into the ASEAN market. This is done by creating industry road maps to equip major stakeholders knowledge on market opportunities; organizing the value chains and effectively assisting their various participants to comply with international trade product standards, processes, and regulations; building capability for effectively managing the risk of disputes among value chain participants; and promoting the cooperation among farmers, small and medium enterprises, and large enterprises within these agro-based value chains.

Starting with the premise that technological innovation and economic growth are interactive and mutually reinforcing, this paper argues that in order to have a fighting chance in the Asean Economic Community (AEC), let alone global, competition, the Philippines (PH) needs to appreciably ramp up investment spending in science, engineering, and research and development. To the extent that this is achieved - along with the other ongoing policy and institutional reforms - the economy could in time be on a stronger platform to face up to AEC challenges. The paper first revisits PH's macro-economy, poverty, and economic sectors vis-à-vis its Asean and East Asian neighbors. Next, it examines PH's regional and global competitiveness. Then, it looks into the country's current human resource and intellectual capital investments, mainly in higher education and technical/vocational training, as well as in R&D and innovation. A more focused discussion on the University of the Philippines - the "national university" - vis-à-vis its comparators in AEC, including ways to improve its competitiveness, follows. The final section concludes with some recommendations.

This paper highlights the thinness of rice trade relative to wheat and maize, and the contrasting price volatility and tradability relations for wheat and maize, which display a positive correlation, and for rice, which show an inverse relation. The paper focuses on Southeast Asia, which hosts the world's biggest rice exporters and rice importers. Using the Granger causality tests to determine correlation, the analysis concludes that very low global trading activity in rice that tends to self-perpetuate its dampening effect on trade does not cause extreme rice price volatility in the region, but the other way around. Rice-importing countries appear to resort to self-sufficiency measures as insurance to compensate for the high risks of unreliable rice supply and unaffordable rice prices. What would it take for countries to regain their confidence in external rice trade? The Association of Southeast Asian Nations Integrated Food Security Program provides a menu of policies for reducing and managing the chances of excessive rice price volatility.

Following an earlier paper titled 'Population and Poverty: The Real Score' (UPSE Discussion Paper 0415, December 2004), the present paper was first issued in August 2008 as a contribution to the public debate on the population issue that never seemed to die in this country. The debate heated up about that time in reaction to a revival of moves to push for legislation on reproductive health and family planning (RH/FP). Those attempts at legislation, however, failed in the 13th Congress, and again in the 14th Congress. Since late last year, the debate has been heating up further on the heels of President Noy Aquino's pronouncements seeming to favor RH/FP, though he prefers the nomenclature 'responsible parenthood'. With some updating of the data, this paper remains as relevant as ever to the ongoing public debate. It is being re-issued as a Discussion Paper for wider circulation.

This paper examines the Philippine experience with trade liberalization policies and their impact on the economy. Although the relationship between trade liberalization and poverty is not straightforward, empirical evidence suggests that there are benefic

This paper looks into the relative merits of two approaches—participation in preferential trading agreements (PTAS) and multilateralism, as exemplified by membership in the World Trade Organization—both of which lead to the path of integration with the world economy. Four ASEAN transition countries with relatively large agricultural sectors are examined. Given the growing empirical evidence that trade openness is associated with higher economic growth and improved standards of living, as well as the upsurge in demand for agricultural products, these transition economies face potential benefits from increased exports. The literature reviewed by the paper suggests that PTAs and the multilateral system complement each other, with the trade agreements forming part of the process in which PTAs create incentives for non-members to eventually join the WTO. PTAs, therefore, serve as the next-best path towards expanding world trade while negotiations for multilateral trade liberalization are still going on. On the other hand, findings also point out that regional trading agreements tend to divert trade toward its members, incur unnecessarily high administrative costs, and create opportunities for unproductive rent-seeking activities. Policy makers are thus enjoined to innovate on their respective preferential trade arrangements, using these to help solve regional spillover problems and promote more trade among members.

This brief explores the Asian Development Bank's technical assistance for expan"This paper begins by outlining the major preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in Asia and other regions and reviewing trends in trade flows. The paper uses a gravity model augmented with several sets of dummy variables to estimate the effect of various PTAs on trade flows within and across membership groupings as well as the effect of PTAs on members' trade with Asian countries. On the basis of these estimates, we are able to categorize 11 major PTAs into those that increase intrabloc trade at the expense of their respective imports from the rest of the world; those that expand their respective trade among their members without reducing their trade with nonmembers; and those that reduce trade with nonmembers without significant changes in intrabloc trade. The authors also show that PTAs have augmented trade in Asia."ding microinsurance in Mongolia and the People's Republic of China.

As the country has undergone a series of structural adjustment and stabilization policies, questions regarding its impact on the agriculture sector has stemmed out of the concerns on poverty and the welfare of vulnerable groups. To answer whether these policies improved the lot of these groups, this paper reviews some of the attempts made to estimate the microeconomic effects of macroeconomic policies and develops an analytical framework capable of evaluating the impacts of structural adjustment and stabilization policy issues. Utilizing computable general equilibrium models, this paper performs a number of policy experiments involving trade, value added tax and exchange rate.

What are the effects of government policies, such as export tax, production levy and marketing regulation, on the Philippine coconut industry? The answer to this question is made central to this research paper.

This paper looks into the relative merits of two approaches—participation in preferential trading agreements (PTAS) and multilateralism, as exemplified by membership in the World Trade Organization—both of which lead to the path of integration with the world economy. Four ASEAN transition countries with relatively large agricultural sectors are examined. Given the growing empirical evidence that trade openness is associated with higher economic growth and improved standards of living, as well as the upsurge in demand for agricultural products, these transition economies face potential benefits from increased exports. The literature reviewed by the paper suggests that PTAs and the multilateral system complement each other, with the trade agreements forming part of the process in which PTAs create incentives for non-members to eventually join the WTO. PTAs, therefore, serve as the next-best path towards expanding world trade while negotiations for multilateral trade liberalization are still going on. On the other hand, findings also point out that regional trading agreements tend to divert trade toward its members, incur unnecessarily high administrative costs, and create opportunities for unproductive rent-seeking activities. Policy makers are thus enjoined to innovate on their respective preferential trade arrangements, using these to help solve regional spillover problems and promote more trade among members.