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Background: In a pandemic setting, it is critical to evaluate and deploy accurate diagnostic tests rapidly. This relies heavily on the sample size chosen to assess the test accuracy (e.g. sensitivity and specificity) during the diagnostic accuracy study. Too small a sample size will lead to imprecise estimates of the accuracy measures, whereas too large a sample size may delay the development process unnecessarily. This study presents a novel Bayesian method to guide sample size determination for diagnostic accuracy studies, with application to COVID-19 rapid viral detection tests. Specifically, we investigate whether utilising existing information (e.g. from preceding laboratory studies) within a Bayesian framework can reduce the required sample size, whilst maintaining test accuracy to the desired precision. Methods: The method presented is based on the Bayesian concept of assurance which, in this context, represents the unconditional probability that a diagnostic accuracy study yields sensitivity and/or specificity intervals with the desired precision. We conduct a simulation study to evaluate the performance of this approach in a variety of COVID-19 settings, and compare it to commonly used power-based methods. An accompanying interactive web application is available, which can be used by researchers to perform the sample size calculations. Results: Results show that the Bayesian assurance method can reduce the required sample size for COVID-19 diagnostic accuracy studies, compared to standard methods, by making better use of laboratory data, without loss of performance. Increasing the size of the laboratory study can further reduce the required sample size in the diagnostic accuracy study. Conclusions: The method considered in this paper is an important advancement for increasing the efficiency of the evidence development pathway. It has highlighted that the trade-off between lab study sample size and diagnostic accuracy study sample size should be carefully considered, since establishing an adequate lab sample size can bring longer-term gains. Although emphasis is on its use in the COVID-19 pandemic setting, it can be usefully applied in other clinical areas.

Introduction\ud Primary Sjögren’s syndrome (pSS) is a chronic inflammatory condition, which presents with symptoms of dryness, pain, fatigue and often symptoms of anxiety and depression. Health related quality of life is significantly reduced in pSS and the direct and indirect health costs of pSS are substantial. This study aims to determine how symptom burden, disease activity and demographics associate with HRQoL longitudinally over a median of 24-month follow-up period in pSS.\ud \ud Methods\ud Longitudinal EQ-5D-3L data from the Newcastle pSS cohort (n=377) were evaluated using a survival analysis strategy. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards analysis were performed using baseline Newcastle Sjogren’s Stratification Tool (NSST) subgroup, EULAR Sjogren’s Syndrome Patient Reported Index (ESSPRI), EULAR Sjogren’s Syndrome Disease Activity Index (ESSDAI), disease duration, age, and sex as covariates including polypharmacy and comorbidity score, where data were available (n = 191). \ud \ud Results\ud Of the 377 pSS participants analysed in this study 16% experienced a decline in HRQoL to a health state comparable to or worse than death. NSST subgroup and ESSPRI score had a significant relationship with time to ‘EQ-5D event’ whereas baseline ESSDAI, age, disease duration and sex did not.\ud \ud Conclusion\ud In pSS symptom burden and to a great extent NSST subgroup, rather than systemic disease activity, has a significant relationship with HRQoL longitudinally. Improvements in symptom burden have the potential to produce significant impacts on long-term HRQoL in pSS.

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a hematological malignancy with an undefined heritable risk. Here we perform a meta-analysis of three genome-wide association studies, with replication in a fourth study, incorporating a total of 4018 AML cases and 10488 controls. We identify a genome-wide significant risk locus for AML at 11q13.2 (rs4930561; P = 2.15 × 10−8; KMT5B). We also identify a genome-wide significant risk locus for the cytogenetically normal AML sub-group (N = 1287) at 6p21.32 (rs3916765; P = 1.51 × 10−10; HLA). Our results inform on AML etiology and identify putative functional genes operating in histone methylation (KMT5B) and immune function (HLA)., Genome wide association studies in cancer are used to understand the heritable genetic contribution to disease risk. Here, the authors perform a genome wide association study in European patients with acute myeloid leukemia and identify loci associated with risk of developing the disease.

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a hematological malignancy with an undefined heritable risk. Here we performed a meta-analysis of three genome-wide association studies, with replication in a fourth study, incorporating a total of 4018 AML cases and 10488 controls. We identified a genome-wide significant risk locus for AML at 11q13.2 (rs4930561; P = 2.15 × 10-8; KMT5B). We also identified a genome-wide significant risk locus for the cytogenetically normal AML sub-group (N=1287) at 6p21.32 (rs3916765; P = 1.51 × 10-10; HLA). Our results inform on AML etiology by identifying putative functional genes operating in histone methylation (KMT5B) and immune function (HLA).

BackgroundVentilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is an important diagnosis in critical care. VAP research is complicated by the lack of agreed diagnostic criteria and reference standard test criteria. Our aim was to review which reference standard tests are used to evaluate novel index tests for suspected VAP.MethodsWe conducted a comprehensive search using electronic databases and hand reference checks. The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, CINHAL, EMBASE, and web of science were searched from 2008 until November 2018. All terms related to VAP diagnostics in the intensive treatment unit were used to conduct the search. We adopted a checklist from the critical appraisal skills programme checklist for diagnostic studies to assess the quality of the included studies.ResultsWe identified 2441 records, of which 178 were selected for full-text review. Following methodological examination and quality assessment, 44 studies were included in narrative data synthesis. Thirty-two (72.7%) studies utilised a sole microbiological reference standard; the remaining 12 studies utilised a composite reference standard, nine of which included a mandatory microbiological criterion. Histopathological criteria were optional in four studies but mandatory in none.ConclusionsNearly all reference standards for VAP used in diagnostic test research required some microbiological confirmation of infection, with BAL culture being the most common reference standard used.

Introduction: Acute graft vs. host disease (aGvHD) is a frequent complication following allogeneic haematopoeitic transplantation (HSCT). Despite recent advances, there are no universally accepted biomarkers to determine development of aGvHD. MicroRNAs miR-146a and miR-155 have been previously associated with aGvHD and show promise as clinically translatable biomarkers. In this study, we performed comprehensive expression profiling of miR-146a, miR-155, and miR-155* expression in aGvHD target tissue and biofluids and relate expression to post-HSCT outcomes.Materials and Methods: MicroRNA expression was assessed by qRT-PCR in gastrointestinal (n = 31) and skin (n = 31) biopsies as well as serum (exploratory cohort n = 34, verification cohort n = 81, diagnostic cohort n = 65) and urine (exploratory cohort n = 30, verification cohort n = 56, diagnostic cohort n = 20) biofluids, including extracellular vesicle (EV) cohorts (serum EV n = 15, urine EV n = 30). Expression was related to aGvHD incidence, severity and overall survival.Results: In GI samples, expression of miR-155 (p = 0.03) and miR-146a (p = 0.03) was higher at aGvHD onset compared to patients with no GvHD. In skin biopsies, expression of miR-155 (p = 0.004) was upregulated in aGvHD patients compared to normal control skin. Expression of miR-146a was higher in aGvHD compared to no aGvHD biopsies (p = 0.002). In serum, miR-155 (p = 0.03) and miR-146a (p = 0.02) expression was higher at day 14 (D14), while in urine expression was elevated at D7 post-HSCT in patients who developed aGvHD compared to those disease-free. This was verified in an independent serum (miR-155 p = 0.005, miR-146a p = 0.003) and urine (miR-155 p = 0.02, miR-146a p = 0.04) cohort, where both microRNAs were also associated with aGvHD by ROC analysis. In serum and urine samples taken at the time of aGvHD symptoms, expression of miR-155 and miR-146a was also elevated (serum miR-155 p = 0.03, miR-146a p < 0.001; urine miR-155 p = 0.02, miR-146a p = 0.02). In contrast, miR-146a and miR-155 were downregulated at D14 in serum EVs and at D7 in urine EVs in patients who developed aGvHD compared to those that remained disease-free, in both an exploratory (serum miR-155 p = 0.02, miR-146a p = 0.06; urine miR-155 p = 0.02, miR-146a p = 0.07) and an independent cohort (serum miR-155 p = 0.01, miR-146a p = 0.02).Conclusions: These results further support a role for miR-155 and miR-146a as non-invasive, clinically relevant biomarkers for aGvHD. However, the link between their involvement in generalized inflammation and in specific pathophysiology requires further investigation at a systemic level.

The development of a new diagnostic test ideally follows a sequence of stages which, amongst other aims, evaluate technical performance. This includes an analytical validity study, a diagnostic accuracy study and an interventional clinical utility study. Current approaches to the design and analysis of the diagnostic accuracy study can suffer from prohibitively large sample sizes and interval estimates with undesirable properties. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian approach which takes advantage of information available from the analytical validity stage. We utilise assurance to calculate the required sample size based on the target width of a posterior probability interval and can choose to use or disregard the data from the analytical validity study when subsequently inferring measures of test accuracy. Sensitivity analyses are performed to assess the robustness of the proposed sample size to the choice of prior, and prior-data conflict is evaluated by comparing the data to the prior predictive distributions. We illustrate the proposed approach using a motivating real-life application involving a diagnostic test for ventilator associated pneumonia. Finally, we compare the properties of the proposed approach against commonly used alternatives. The results show that by making better use of existing data from earlier studies, the assurance-based approach can not only reduce the required sample size when compared to alternatives, but can also produce more reliable sample sizes for diagnostic accuracy studies., Comment: Revision: submitted to Statistics in Medicine

BackgroundWe conducted a systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of a commercial point-of-care test, the FebriDx lateral flow device (LFD), in adult patients with suspected COVID-19. The FebriDx LFD is designed to distinguish between viral and bacterial respiratory infection.MethodsWe searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, Google Scholar, LitCovid, ClinicalTrials.gov and preprint servers on the 13th of January 2021 to identify studies reporting diagnostic accuracy of FebriDx (myxovirus resistance protein A component) versus real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2 in adult patients suspected of COVID-19. IPD were sought from studies meeting the eligibility criteria. Studies were screened for risk of bias using the QUADAS-2 tool. A bivariate linear mixed model was fitted to the data to obtain a pooled estimate of sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). A summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve of the model was constructed. A sub-group analysis was performed by meta-regression using the same modelling approach to compare pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity between patients with a symptom duration of 0 to 7 days and >7 days, and patients aged between 16 to 73 years and >73 years.ResultsTen studies were screened, and three studies with a total of 1481 patients receiving hospital care were included. FebriDx produced an estimated pooled sensitivity of 0.911 (95% CI: 0.855-0.946) and specificity of 0.868 (95% CI: 0.802-0.915) compared to RT-PCR. There were no significant differences between the sub-groups of 0 to 7 days and >7 days in estimated pooled sensitivity (p = 0.473) or specificity (p = 0.853). There were also no significant differences between the sub-groups of 16 to 73 years of age and >73 years of age in estimated pooled sensitivity (p = 0.946) or specificity (p = 0.486).ConclusionsBased on the results of three studies, the FebriDx LFD had high diagnostic accuracy for COVID-19 in a hospital setting, however, the pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity should be interpreted with caution due to the small number of studies included, risk of bias, and inconsistent reference standards. Further research is required to confirm these findings, and determine how FebriDx would perform in different healthcare settings and patient populations.Trial registrationThis study was conducted at pace as part of the COVID-19 National Diagnostic Research and Evaluation Platform (CONDOR) national test evaluation programme (https://www.condor-platform.org), and as a result, no protocol was developed, and the study was not registered.Lay summaryTests to diagnose COVID-19 are crucial to help control the spread of the disease and to guide treatment. Over the last few months, tests have been developed to diagnose COVID-19 either by detecting the presence of the virus or by detecting specific markers linked to the virus being active in the body. These tests use complex machines in laboratories accepting samples from large geographical areas. Sometimes it takes days for test results to come back. So, to reduce the wait for results, new portable tests are being developed. These ‘point-of-care (POC)’ tests are designed to work close to where patients require assessment and care such as hospital emergency departments, GP surgeries or care homes. For these new POC tests to be useful, they should ideally be as good as standard laboratory tests.In this study we looked at published research into a new test called FebriDx. FebriDx is a POC test that detects the body’s response to infection, and is claimed to be able to detect the presence of any viral infection, including infections due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus which causes COVID-19, as well as bacterial infections which can have similar symptoms. The FebriDx result was compared with standard laboratory tests for COVID-19 performed on the same patient’s throat and nose swab sample. We were able to analyse data from three studies with a total of 1481 adult patients who were receiving hospital care with symptoms of COVID-19 during the UK pandemic. Approximately one fifth of the patients were diagnosed as positive for SARS-CoV-2 virus using standard laboratory tests for COVID-19.Our analysis demonstrated that FebriDx correctly identified 91 out of 100 patients who had COVID-19 according to the standard laboratory test. FebriDx also correctly identified 87 out of 100 patients who did not have COVID-19 according to the standard laboratory test. These results have important implications for how these tests could be used. As there were slightly fewer FebriDx false results when the results of the standard laboratory test were positive (9 out of 100) than when the results of the standard laboratory test were negative (13 out of 100), we can have slightly more confidence in a positive test result using FebriDx than a negative FebriDx result.Overall, we have shown that the FebriDx POC test performed well during the UK COVID-19 pandemic when compared with laboratory tests, especially when COVID-19 was indicated. For the future, this means that the FebriDx POC test might be helpful in making a quick clinical decision on whether to isolate a patient with COVID-19-like symptoms arriving in a busy emergency department. However, our results indicate it would not completely replace the need to conduct a laboratory test in certain cases to confirm COVID-19.There are limitations to our findings. For example, we do not know if FebriDx will work in a similar way with patients in different settings such as in the community or care homes. Similarly, we do not know whether other viral and bacterial infections which cause similar COVID-19 symptoms, and are more common in the autumn and winter months, could influence the FebriDx test accuracy. Our findings are also only based on three studies.

Summary Background A subset of patients with severe COVID-19 develop a hyperinflammatory syndrome, which might contribute to morbidity and mortality. This study explores a specific phenotype of COVID-19-associated hyperinflammation (COV-HI), and its associations with escalation of respiratory support and survival. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we enrolled consecutive inpatients (aged ≥18 years) admitted to University College London Hospitals and Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals in the UK with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 during the first wave of community-acquired infection. Demographic data, laboratory tests, and clinical status were recorded from the day of admission until death or discharge, with a minimum follow-up time of 28 days. We defined COV-HI as a C-reactive protein concentration greater than 150 mg/L or doubling within 24 h from greater than 50 mg/L, or a ferritin concentration greater than 1500 μg/L. Respiratory support was categorised as oxygen only, non-invasive ventilation, and intubation. Initial and repeated measures of hyperinflammation were evaluated in relation to the next-day risk of death or need for escalation of respiratory support (as a combined endpoint), using a multi-level logistic regression model. Findings We included 269 patients admitted to one of the study hospitals between March 1 and March 31, 2020, among whom 178 (66%) were eligible for escalation of respiratory support and 91 (34%) patients were not eligible. Of the whole cohort, 90 (33%) patients met the COV-HI criteria at admission. Despite having a younger median age and lower median Charlson Comorbidity Index scores, a higher proportion of patients with COV-HI on admission died during follow-up (36 [40%] of 90 patients) compared with the patients without COV-HI on admission (46 [26%] of 179). Among the 178 patients who were eligible for full respiratory support, 65 (37%) met the definition for COV-HI at admission, and 67 (74%) of the 90 patients whose respiratory care was escalated met the criteria by the day of escalation. Meeting the COV-HI criteria was significantly associated with the risk of next-day escalation of respiratory support or death (hazard ratio 2·24 [95% CI 1·62–2·87]) after adjustment for age, sex, and comorbidity. Interpretation Associations between elevated inflammatory markers, escalation of respiratory support, and survival in people with COVID-19 indicate the existence of a high-risk inflammatory phenotype. COV-HI might be useful to stratify patient groups in trial design. Funding None.

Unstructured abstract A predictive model for the visual outcome after successful macular hole surgery using a prospectively collected dataset and automated image analysis of pre-operative spectral domain optical coherence tomography images is presented with an R2 of 45%.

Background: Recent large national and international cohorts describe the baseline characteristics and outcome of hospitalised patients with COVID-19, however there is little granularity to these reports. We aimed to provide a detailed description of a UK COVID-19 cohort, focusing on clinical decisions and patient journeys. Methods: We retrospectively analysed the management and 28-day outcomes of 316 consecutive adult patients with SARS-CoV-2 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to a large NHS Foundation Trust with a tertiary High Consequence Infectious Diseases centre in the North of England. Findings: Most patients were elderly (median age 75) with multiple comorbidities. One quarter were admitted from residential or nursing care. Symptoms were consistent with COVID-19, with cough, fever and/or breathlessness in 90.5% of patients. Two thirds of patients had severe disease on admission. Mortality was 81/291 (27.8%). Most deaths were anticipated; decisions to initiate respiratory support were individualised after consideration of patient wishes, premorbid frailty and comorbidities, with specialist palliative care input where appropriate. 22/291 (7.6%) patients were intubated and 11/22 (50%) survived beyond discharge. Multiple logistic regression identified age as the most significant risk factor for death (OR 1.09 [95% CI 1.06 - 1.12] per year increase, p < 0.001). Interpretation: These findings provide important clinical context to outcome data. Deaths were anticipated, occurring in patients with advance decisions on ceilings of treatment. Age was the most significant risk factor for death, confirming that demographic factors in the population are a major influence on hospital mortality rates. Funding: Funding was not required.

The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the ROC curve are widely used in discovery to compare the performance of diagnostic and prognostic assays. The ROC curve has the advantage that it is independent of disease prevalence. However, in this note, we remind scientists and clinicians that the performance of an assay upon translation to the clinic is critically dependent upon that very same prevalence. Without an understanding of prevalence in the test population, even robust bioassays with excellent ROC characteristics may perform poorly in the clinic. While the exact prevalence in the target population is not always known, simple plots of candidate assay performance as a function of prevalence rate give a better understanding of the likely real-world performance and a greater understanding of the likely impact of variation in that prevalence on translation to the clinic.

In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008) cheaper, softer money flooded the worldwide markets. Faced with historically low capital costs, the pharmaceutical industry chose to pay down debt through share buybacks rather than invest in research and development (R&D). Instead, the industry explored new R&D models for open innovation, such as open-sourcing, crowd-sourcing, public-private partnerships, innovation centres, Science Parks, and the wholesale outsourcing of pharmaceutical R&D. However, economic Greater Fool Theory suggests that outsourcing R&D was never likely to increase innovation. Ten years on, the period of cheaper and softer money is coming to an end. So how are things looking? And what happens next?

Background Early identification and treatment of stroke improve outcome. Ischaemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion (LVO) benefits from time-critical thrombectomy but this is only available in highly specialised healthcare services. Cerebral Bioimpedance Asymmetry (CBA) measurement obtained with the portable and rapid Cerebrotech Visor™ System device may be able to identify certain types of stroke including LVO. This test could be deployed pre-hospital and used to immediately direct patients to the most appropriate healthcare service for treatment. This study is evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of CBA measurements obtained from a real-world population of suspected stroke. Methods Study design: Prospective observational cohort study. Setting: A hyperacute stroke unit and neuroscience centre in North East England. Participants: Adults with a paramedic assigned diagnosis of suspected stroke arriving at hospital within 6 hours of symptom onset. Index Test: Cerebral Bioimpedance Asymmetry measurement performed using the Cerebrotech Visor™ System. Measurement values produce continuous data (range 0 –100); pre-defined threshold for positive state ≥ 10. Reference Standard Tests: Standard CT brain +/- CT/MR angiography, and expert clinician opinion will establish the following clinical outcomes which constitute the suspected stroke population: ischaemic stroke +/- large vessel occlusion; symptomatic severe anterior vessel stenosis; large (≥60ml) and small ( Analyses: Sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values, area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve for identification of i) “complex stroke” (ischaemic stroke with large vessel occlusion or symptomatic severe anterior vessel stenosis or intracerebral haemorrhage ≥60ml or prior territorial stroke) and ii) ischaemic stroke with large vessel occlusion in isolation. Sample size: 124 participants Discussion The results from this study will determine how accurately CBA measurement using the Cerebrotech Visor™ System can identify key stroke types within the suspected stroke population. Acceptable diagnostic performance would be an important step forwards for access to time-critical treatments. Trial registration Registered with ISRCTN (identifier: ISRCTN79169844) on 06/08/2018.

Acute graft-versus-host disease (aGvHD) is a major cause of adverse outcome in hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), with a high incidence (20–50%). A novel, non-invasive diagnostic test to predict for prevalence and severity would enable improved prophylaxis and reduce morbidity. Circulatory microRNAs (miRNAs) miR-423, miR-199, miR-93*, and miR-377 have previously been associated with aGvHD in post-HSCT patient plasma, but validation is lacking and their expression within extracellular vesicles (EVs) has not been explored. This study replicated elevated serum expression of miR-423 (p

Acute graft-versus-host disease (aGvHD) is the most frequent and serious complication following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), with a high mortality rate. A clearer understanding of the molecular pathogenesis may allow for improved therapeutic options or guide personalized prophylactic protocols. Circulating microRNAs are expressed in body fluids and have recently been associated with the etiology of aGvHD, but global expression profiling in a HSCT setting is lacking. This study profiled expression of n = 799 mature microRNAs in patient serum, using the NanoString platform, to identify microRNAs that showed altered expression at aGvHD diagnosis. Selected microRNAs (n = 10) were replicated in independent cohorts of serum samples taken at aGvHD diagnosis (n = 42) and prior to disease onset (day 14 post-HSCT, n = 47) to assess their prognostic potential. Sera from patients without aGvHD were used as controls. Differential microRNAs were investigated in silico for predicted networks and mRNA targets. Expression analysis identified 61 microRNAs that were differentially expressed at aGvHD diagnosis. miR-146a (p = 0.03), miR-30b-5p (p = 0.007), miR-374-5p (p = 0.02), miR-181a (p = 0.03), miR-20a (p = 0.03), and miR-15a (p = 0.03) were significantly verified in an independent cohort (n = 42). miR-146a (p = 0.01), miR-20a (p = 0.03), miR-18 (p = 0.03), miR-19a (p = 0.03), miR-19b (p = 0.01), and miR-451 (p = 0.01) were differentially expressed 14 days post-HSCT in patients who later developed aGvHD (n = 47). High miR-19b expression was associated with improved overall survival (OS) (p = 0.008), whereas high miR-20a and miR-30b-5p were associated with lower rates of non-relapse mortality (p = 0.05 and p = 0.008) and improved OS (p = 0.016 and p = 0.021). Pathway analysis associated the candidate microRNAs with hematological and inflammatory disease. Circulating biofluid microRNAs show altered expression at aGvHD onset and have the capacity to act as prognostic and diagnostic biomarkers. Their differential expression in serum suggests a role for circulatory microRNAs in aGvHD pathology, which warrants further investigation.

In the 1990s the pharmaceutical industry sought to increase R&D productivity by shifting development tasks into parallel to reduce development cycle times and increase development speed. This paper presents a simple model demonstrating that, when attrition rates are high as in pharmaceutical development, such development speed initiatives can increase the expected time for the first successful molecule to complete development. Increasing the development speed of successful molecules could actually reduce R&D productivity – the development speed paradox.

Many scientists believe that small experiments, guided by scientific intuition, are simpler and more efficient than design of experiments. This belief is strong and persists even in the face of data demonstrating that it is clearly wrong. In this paper, we present two powerful teaching examples illustrating the dangers of small experiments guided by scientific intuition. We describe two, simple, two-dimensional spaces. These two spaces give rise to, and at the same time appear to generate supporting data for, scientific intuitions that are deeply flawed or wholly incorrect. We find these spaces useful in unfreezing scientific thinking and challenging the misplaced confidence in scientific intuition.

Allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) is a curative treatment for numerous haematological malignancies. However, acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) is still the major complication causing mortality. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) play a significant role in inflammation and have potential as prognostic and diagnostic biomarkers. This study investigated the role of two immune-specific miRNAs (miR-146a and miR-155) as biomarkers for aGVHD incidence in the peripheral blood of allo-HSCT patients prior to disease onset. The study showed that miR-146a and its (statistical) interaction with miR-155 at day+28 was predictive of aGVHD incidence. Interestingly, the expression levels of miR-146a and miR-155 negatively correlated with the transcription factor, SPI1 (PU.1gene) mRNA expression.

A Hogarth, or 'wicked', universe is an irregular environment generating data to support erroneous beliefs. Here, we argue that development scientists often work in such a universe. We demonstrate that exploring these multidimensional spaces using small experiments guided by scientific intuition alone, gives rise to an illusion of validity and a misplaced confidence in that scientific intuition. By contrast, design of experiments (DOE) permits the efficient mapping of such complex, multidimensional spaces. We describe simulation tools that enable research scientists to explore these spaces in relative safety.

A recent analysis of R&D productivity suggests that there are grounds for ‘cautious optimism’ that the industry ‘turned the corner’ in 2008 and is ‘on the comeback trail’. We believe that this analysis is flawed and most probably wrong. We present an alternative analysis of these same data to suggest that the industry is not yet ‘out of the woods’ and suggest that many of the systemic issues affecting pharmaceutical R&D productivity are still being resolved. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Introduction MicroRNAs are expressed in body fluids and have recently been associated with the etiology of acute graft versus host disease (GvHD), but global expression profiling in a haematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) setting is lacking. An improved understanding of the molecular pathogenesis of aGvHD may allow for improved therapeutic options, or guide personalised prophylactic protocols. Methods Mature microRNA serum expression (n=799) was assessed using nCounter technology (NanoString) in a training cohort of diagnostic aGvHD samples (n=12). Analysis assessed for microRNAs that were dysregulated in patients who developed aGvHD compared to no aGvHD. Signature microRNAs were validated in an independent cohort of serum samples taken at aGvHD diagnosis (n=42) and prior to disease onset (day 14 (D14) post-HSCT, n=47). Results NanoString profiling identified 61 microRNAs that were differentially expressed at aGvHD onset, of which n=27 were downregulated (fold change (FC) -6.94 - -1.75; p MicroRNA expression was also assessed at D14 post-HSCT in an independent cohort (n=47) to investigate their prognostic marker potential. MiR-146a (p=0.01), miR-20a (p=0.03), miR-18a (p=0.03), miR-19a (p=0.03), miR-19b (p=0.02) and miR-451 (p=0.01) were expressed at significantly higher levels in patients who developed aGvHD vs. no aGvHD. In ROC analysis, miR-146a (A=0.68, p=0.03), miR-19b (A=0.70, p=0.02) and miR-451 (A=0.69, p=0.03) had diagnostic ability with regards to aGvHD incidence, whilst miR-18a (A=0.65, p=0.09), miR-19a (A=0.65, p=0.08) and miR-20a (A=0.67, p=0.06) were approaching significance. Conclusions Circulating microRNAs have the capacity to act as prognostic and diagnostic biomarkers for aGvHD and might assist in developing personalised therapeutic approaches. Their dysregulated expression suggests a role in aGvHD pathology, which warrants further investigation. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Introduction MicroRNAs are small, non-coding single-stranded RNAs and regulate approximately 50% of all genes by repressing translation. They are present in bodily fluids, where they are protected from RNase-mediated degradation by encapsulation into extracellular vesicles (EVs) and demonstrate a novel capacity to regulate the cellular differentiation of blood cells and immune function. Candidate microRNAs miR-377, miR-199, miR-93* and miR-423 have previously been associated with acute graft versus host disease (aGvHD) in post-hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) patient plasma. However, validation in independent cohorts is necessary, as well as further exploration to assess expression in the EV fraction of the blood. Methods MicroRNA expression was evaluated in early HSCT time point exploratory (n=34), validation (n=47) and diagnostic (n=65) serum cohorts by TaqMan qRT-PCR. Expression was also assessed in serum EVs (exploratory n=16 and validation n=47 cohorts) by EV isolation, RNA extraction and TaqMan qRT-PCR analysis. Results In sequential pre- and post-HSCT serum samples (n=34; pre-HSCT, Day0 (D0), D7, D14 & D28), miR-423 (p=0.03), miR-199 (p=0.06), miR-93* (p=0.04) and miR-377 (p=0.03) were upregulated at D14 in patients who developed aGvHD vs. no aGvHD. MiR-423 was also significantly upregulated at D0 (p=0.04), D7 (p=0.03) and D28 (p=0.03) in aGvHD patients. In relation to aGvHD severity, miR-423 (p=0.05), miR-199 (p=0.007) and miR-93* (p=0.09) were differentially expressed at D14 according to aGvHD grade. MiR-423 (p=0.02), miR-199 (p=0.07) and miR-93* (p=0.01) expression was validated at D14 in an independent cohort (n=47). When the exploratory and validation D14 samples were combined (n=81), miR-423 (p In an independent diagnostic cohort (n=65), from a separate Institution, miR-423 (p=0.02), miR-199 (p=0.007) and miR-93* (p=0.004) expression was higher at aGvHD onset and showed diagnostic ability by ROC analysis (miR-423 p=0.03 AUC=0.66; miR-199 p=0.04 AUC=0.65; and miR-93* p=0.01 AUC=0.68). The three microRNAs had diagnostic ability with respect to aGvHD incidence based on composite ROC analysis of PC1 (p=0.019, AUC=0.68). MicroRNAs were also investigated within serum EVs (n=15). MiR-199 (p=0.008), miR-93* (p=0.001) and miR-423 (p=0.09) expression was lower at D14 in patients who developed aGvHD. Results were confirmed in a D14 validation cohort (n=47), with lower EV miR-423 (p=0.02) and miR-199 (p=0.04), but not miR-93* (p=0.15) expression in patients who developed aGvHD. MiR-423 and miR-199 had diagnostic ability based on composite PC1 ROC analysis (p=0.06, AUC=0.69). By D14, patients remaining aGvHD free had higher expression of miR-423 (p=0.03), miR-199 (p=0.05) and miR-93* (p Conclusions Results validate the capacity for circulating serum miR-423, miR-199 and miR-93* to act as diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers for aGvHD. Novel findings of differential expression between whole serum and the EV compartment prior to disease onset suggest a role for EV microRNAs in the biology of aGvHD, which warrants further investigation. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

'Quick-kill' strategies in pharmaceutical research and development aim to reduce late-stage attrition by bringing project termination decisions forward, to an earlier point in the process. How can the barriers to implementing such strategies be overcome?

By quickly clearing the development pipeline of failing or marginal products, fast-fail strategies release resources to focus on more promising molecules. The Quick-Kill model of drug development demonstrates that fast-fail strategies will: (1) reduce the expected time to market; (2) reduce expected RD costs; and (3) increase RD productivity. This paper outlines the model and demonstrates the impact of fast-fail strategies. The model is illustrated with costs and risks data from pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical companies.