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The Ambient Intelligent Geriatric Management (AmbIGeM) system combines wearable sensors with artificial intelligence to trigger alerts to hospital staff before a fall. A clinical trial found no effect across a heterogenous population, but reported a reduction in the injurious falls rate in a post hoc analysis of patients on Geriatric Evaluation Management Unit (GEMU) wards. Cost-effectiveness and Value of Information (VoI) analyses of the AmbIGeM system in GEMU wards was undertaken.An Australian health-care system perspective and 5-year time horizon were used for the cost-effectiveness analysis. Implementation costs, inpatient costs and falls data were collected. Injurious falls were defined as causing bruising, laceration, fracture, loss of consciousness, or if the patient reported persistent pain. To compare costs and outcomes, generalised linear regression models were used to adjust for baseline differences between the intervention and usual care groups. Bootstrapping was used to represent uncertainty. For the VoI analysis, 10,000 different sample sizes with randomly sampled values ranging from 1 to 50,000 were tested to estimate the optimal sample size of a new trial that maximised the Expected Net Benefits of Sampling.An adjusted 0.036 fewer injurious falls (adjusted rate ratio of 0.56) and AUD$4554 lower costs were seen in the intervention group. However, uncertainty that the intervention is cost effective for the prevention of an injurious fall was present at all monetary values of this effectiveness outcome. A new trial with a sample of 4376 patients was estimated to maximise the Expected Net Benefit of Sampling, generating a net benefit of AUD$186,632 at a benefit-to-cost ratio of 1.1.The benefits to cost ratio suggests that a new trial of the AmbIGeM system in GEMU wards may not be high-value compared to other potential trials, and that the system should be implemented. However, a broader analysis of options for preventing falls in GEMU is required to fully inform decision making.Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (ACTRN 12617000981325).

Objectives: To examine individual, medication, system, and healthcare related predictors of hospitalization and emergency department (ED) presentation within 90 days of entering the aged care sector, and to create risk-profiles associated with these outcomes. Design and setting: Retrospective population-based cohort study using data from the Registry of Senior Australians. Participants: Older people (aged 65 and older) with an aged care eligibility assessment in South Australia between January 1, 2013 and May 31, 2016 (N = 22,130). Measurements: Primary outcomes were unplanned hospitalization and ED presentation within 90 days of assessment. Individual, medication, system, and healthcare related predictors of the outcomes at the time of assessment, within 90 days or 1-year prior. Fine–Gray models were used to calculate subdistribution hazard ratios (sHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Harrell's C-index assessed predictive ability. Results: Four thousand nine-hundred and six (22.2%) individuals were hospitalized and 5028 (22.7%) had an ED presentation within 90 days. Predictors of hospitalization included: being a man (hospitalization sHR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.26–1.42), ≥3 urgent after-hours attendances (hospitalization sHR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.06–1.39), increasing frailty index score (hospitalization sHR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.11–1.28), individuals using glucocorticoids (hospitalization sHR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.02–1.20), sulfonamides (hospitalization sHR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.10–1.27), trimethoprim antibiotics (hospitalization sHR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.03–1.29), unplanned hospitalizations 30 days prior (hospitalization sHR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.04–1.23), and ED presentations 1 year prior (hospitalization sHR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.04–1.10). Similar predictors and hazard estimates were also observed for ED presentations. The hospitalization models out-of-sample predictive ability (C-index = 0.653, 95% CI 0.635–0.670) and ED presentations (C-index = 0.647, 95% CI 0.630–0.663) were moderate. Conclusions: One in five individuals with aged care eligibility assessments had unplanned hospitalizations and/or ED presentation within 90 days with several predictors identified at the time of aged care eligibility assessment. This is an actionable period for targeting at-risk individuals to reduce hospitalizations. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Background The Ambient Intelligent Geriatric Management (AmbIGeM) system augments best practice and involves a novel wearable sensor (accelerometer and gyroscope) worn by patients where the data captured by the sensor are interpreted by algorithms to trigger alerts on clinician handheld mobile devices when risk movements are detected. Methods A 3-cluster stepped-wedge pragmatic trial investigating the effect on the primary outcome of falls rate and secondary outcome of injurious fall and proportion of fallers. Three wards across 2 states were included. Patients aged ≥65 years were eligible. Patients requiring palliative care were excluded. The trial was registered with the Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials registry, number 12617000981325. Results A total of 4924 older patients were admitted to the study wards with 1076 excluded and 3240 (1995 control, 1245 intervention) enrolled. The median proportion of study duration with valid readings per patient was 49% ((interquartile range [IQR] 25%-67%)). There was no significant difference between intervention and control relating to the falls rate (adjusted rate ratio = 1.41, 95% confidence interval [0.85, 2.34]; p = .192), proportion of fallers (odds ratio = 1.54, 95% confidence interval [0.91, 2.61]; p = .105), and injurious falls rate (adjusted rate ratio = 0.90, 95% confidence interval [0.38, 2.14]; p = .807). In a post hoc analysis, falls and injurious falls rate were reduced in the Geriatric Evaluation and Management Unit wards when the intervention period was compared to the control period. Conclusions The AmbIGeM system did not reduce the rate of falls, rate of injurious falls, or proportion of fallers. There remains a case for further exploration and refinement of this technology given the post hoc analysis findings with the Geriatric Evaluation and Management Unit wards. Clinical Trials Registration Number: 12617000981325

Objective: To determine the impact of oil -based versus water -based contrast on pregnancy and live birth rates < 5 years after hysterosalpingography (HSG) in infertile women. Design: A 5 -year follow-up study of a multicenter randomized trial. Setting: Hospitals. Patient(s): Infertile women with an ovulatory cycle, 18 - 39 years of age, and having a low risk of tubal pathology. Intervention(s): Use of oil -based versus water -based contrast during HSG. Main Outcome Measure(s): Ongoing pregnancy, live births, time to ongoing pregnancy, second ongoing pregnancy. Result(s): A total of 1,119 women were randomly assigned to HSG with oil -based contrast (n = 557) or water -based contrast (n = 562). After 5 years, 444 of 555 women in the oil group (80.0%) and 419 of 559 women in the water group (75.0%) had an ongoing pregnancy (relative risk [RR] 1.07; 95% con fi dence interval [CI] 1.00 - 1.14), and 415 of 555 women in the oil group (74.8%) and 376 of 559 women in the water group (67.3%) had live births (RR 1.11; 95% CI 1.03 - 1.20). In the oil group, 228 pregnancies (41.1%) were conceived naturally versus 194 (34.7%) pregnancies in the water group (RR 1.18; 95% CI 1.02 - 1.38). The time to ongoing pregnancy was signi fi cantly shorter in the oil group versus the water group (10.0 vs. 13.7 months; hazard ratio, 1.25; 95% CI 1.09 - 1.43). No difference was found in the occurrence of a second ongoing pregnancy. Conclusion(s): During a 5 -year time frame, ongoing pregnancy and live birth rates are higher after tubal fl ushing with oil -based contrast during HSG compared with water -based contrast. More pregnancies are naturally conceived and time to ongoing pregnancy is shorter after HSG with oil -based contrast. Clinical Trial Registration Number: Netherlands Trial Register (NTR) 3270 and NTR6577(www.trialregister.nl). (Fertil Steril (R) 2020;114:155-62. (C) 2020 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)

ObjectivesTo: (1) examine the 90-day incidence of unplanned hospitalisation and emergency department (ED) presentations after residential aged care facility (RACF) entry, (2) examine individual-related, facility-related, medication-related, system-related and healthcare-related predictors of these outcomes and (3) create individual risk profiles.DesignRetrospective cohort study using the Registry of Senior Australians. Fine-Gray models estimated subdistribution HRs and 95% CIs. Harrell’s C-index assessed risk models’ predictive ability.Setting and participantsIndividuals aged ≥65 years old entering a RACF as permanent residents in three Australian states between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2016 (N=116 192 individuals in 1967 RACFs).Predictors examinedIndividual-related, facility-related, medication-related, system and healthcare-related predictors ascertained at assessments or within 90 days, 6 months or 1 year prior to RACF entry.Outcome measures90-day unplanned hospitalisation and ED presentation post-RACF entry.ResultsThe cohort median age was 85 years old (IQR 80–89), 62% (N=71 861) were women, and 50.5% (N=58 714) had dementia. The 90-day incidence of unplanned hospitalisations was 18.0% (N=20 919) and 22.6% (N=26 242) had ED presentations. There were 34 predictors of unplanned hospitalisations and 34 predictors of ED presentations identified, 27 common to both outcomes and 7 were unique to each. The hospitalisation and ED presentation models out-of-sample Harrell’s C-index was 0.664 (95% CI 0.657 to 0.672) and 0.655 (95% CI 0.648 to 0.662), respectively. Some common predictors of high risk of unplanned hospitalisation and ED presentations included: being a man, age, delirium history, higher activity of daily living, behavioural and complex care needs, as well as history, number and recency of healthcare use (including hospital, general practitioners attendances), experience of a high sedative load and several medications.ConclusionsWithin 90 days of RACF entry, 18.0% of individuals had unplanned hospitalisations and 22.6% had ED presentations. Several predictors, including modifiable factors, were identified at the time of care entry. This is an actionable period for targeting individuals at risk of hospitalisations.

Previous studies have demonstrated hysterosalpingography (HSG) in general, and specifically with an oil-soluble contrast medium, directly increases pregnancy rates. Decision modelling was performed to compare fertility management using three HSG diagnostic strategies: (i) water-soluble contrast medium (WSCM)-HSG; (ii) Lipiodol® Ultra Fluid (LUF)-HSG; and (iii) No HSG, for women aged ≤39 years with unexplained infertility. Four reimbursement scenarios were modelled to reflect the various funding arrangements across the regions of the United Kingdom. Compared with WSCM-HSG, the live birth rates after 24 months increased by 3.4% with LUF-HSG and decreased by 2.7% with no HSG. From a patient perspective, fertility management with LUF-HSG is the most cost-effective strategy with cost-savings ranging from £299 to £857 per patient depending on the funding arrangement for IVF. From an NHS perspective, fertility management with LUF-HSG is cost-effective when 2 or more IVF cycles are NHS-funded. If none of the IVF cycles are NHS-funded, fertility management with LUF-HSG can be considered cost-effective if society is willing to pay £8,353 for an additional live birth. The findings from this analysis suggest that fertility management with WSCM-HSG is cost-effective compared to no HSG and LUF-HSG is the most cost-effective with increased live birth rates after 24 months.

ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to characterise hospitalisations due to atrial fibrillation (AF) compared with two other common cardiovascular conditions, myocardial infarction (MI) and heart failure (HF), in addition to the associated economic burden of these hospitalisations and contribution of AF-related procedures.MethodsThe primary outcome measure was the rate of increase of AF, MI and HF hospitalisations from 1993 to 2013. The rate of increase of AF-related procedures including cardioversion and ablation were also collected, in addition to direct costs associated with hospitalisations for each of these three conditions.ResultsAF hospitalisations increased 295% over the 21-year period to a total of 61 424 in 2013. In comparison, MI and HF hospitalisations increased by only 73% and 39%, respectively, over the same period. Considering population changes, there was an annual increase in AF hospitalisations of 5.2% (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.052; 95% CI 1.046 to 1.059; pConclusionsThe burden of AF hospitalisations continues to rise unabated. AF has now surpassed both MI and HF hospitalisations and represents a growing cost burden. New models of healthcare delivery are required to stem this growing healthcare burden.

Background: Since caesarean sections (CSs) before 39 +0 weeks gestation are associated with higher rates of neonatal respiratory morbidity, it is recommended to delay elective CSs until 39 +0 weeks. However, this bears the risk of earlier spontaneous labour resulting in unplanned CSs, which has workforce and resource implications, specifically in smaller obstetric units. Aim: To assess, in a policy of elective CSs from 39 +0 weeks onward, the number of unplanned CSs to prevent one neonate with respiratory complications, as compared to early elective CS. Materials and Methods: We performed a decision analysis comparing early term elective CS at 37 +0–6 or 38 +0–6 weeks to elective prelabour CS, without strict medical indication, at 39 +0–6 weeks, with earlier unplanned CS, in women with uncomplicated singleton pregnancies. We used literature data to calculate the number of unplanned CSs necessary to prevent one neonate with respiratory morbidity. Results: Planning all elective CSs at 39 +0–6 weeks required 10.9 unplanned CSs to prevent one neonate with respiratory morbidity, compared to planning all elective CSs at 38 +0–6 weeks. Compared to planning all elective CSs at 37 +0–6 weeks we needed to perform 3.3 unplanned CSs to prevent one neonate with respiratory morbidity. Conclusion: In a policy of planning all elective pre-labour CSs from 39 +0 weeks of gestation onward, between three and 11 unplanned CSs have to be performed to prevent one neonate with respiratory morbidity. Therefore, in our opinion, fear of early term labour and workforce disutility is no argument for scheduling elective CSs

Background Repeated admission to hospital can be stressful for older people and their families and puts additional pressure on the health care system. While there is some evidence about strategies to better integrate care, improve older patients’ experiences at transitions of care, and reduce preventable hospital readmissions, implementing these strategies at scale is challenging. This program of research comprises multiple, complementary research activities with an overall goal of improving the care for older people after discharge from hospital. The program leverages existing large datasets and an established collaborative network of clinicians, consumers, academics, and aged care providers. Methods The program of research will take place in South Australia focusing on people aged 65 and over. Three inter-linked research activities will be the following: (1) analyse existing registry data to profile individuals at high risk of emergency department encounters and hospital admissions; (2) evaluate the cost-effectiveness of existing ‘out-of-hospital’ programs provided within the state; and (3) implement a state-wide quality improvement collaborative to tackle key interventions likely to improve older people’s care at points of transitions. The research is underpinned by an integrated approach to knowledge translation, actively engaging a broad range of stakeholders to optimise the relevance and sustainability of the changes that are introduced. Discussion This project highlights the uniqueness and potential value of bringing together key stakeholders and using a multi-faceted approach (risk profiling; evaluation framework; implementation and evaluation) for improving health services. The program aims to develop a practical and scalable solution to a challenging health service problem for frail older people and service providers.

Contains fulltext : 241250.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access) RESEARCH QUESTION: What are the long-term costs and effects of oil- versus water-based contrast in infertile women undergoing hysterosalpingography (HSG)? DESIGN: This economic evaluation of a long-term follow-up of a multicentre randomized controlled trial involved 1119 infertile women randomized to HSG with oil- (n = 557) or water-based contrast (n = 562) in the Netherlands. RESULTS: In the oil-based contrast group, 39.8% of women needed no other treatment, 34.6% underwent intrauterine insemination (IUI) and 25.6% had IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) in the 5 years following HSG. In the water-based contrast group, 35.0% of women had no other treatment, 34.2% had IUI and 30.8% had IVF/ICSI in the 5 years following HSG (P = 0.113). After 5 years of follow-up, HSG using oil-based contrast resulted in equivalent costs (mean cost difference -€144; 95% confidence interval [CI] -€579 to +€290; P = 0.515) for a 5% increase in the cumulative ongoing pregnancy rate compared with HSG using water-based contrast (80% compared with 75%, Relative Risk (RR) 1.07; 95% CI 1.00-1.14). Similarly, HSG with oil-based contrast resulted in equivalent costs (mean cost difference -€50; 95% CI -€576 to +€475; P = 0.850) for a 7.5% increase in the cumulative live birth rate compared with HSG with water-based contrast (74.8% compared with 67.3%, RR 1.11; 95% CI 1.03-1.20), making it the dominant strategy. Scenario analyses suggest that the oil-based contrast medium is the dominant strategy up to a price difference of €300. CONCLUSION: Over a 5-year follow-up, HSG with an oil-based contrast was associated with a 5% increase in ongoing pregnancy rate, a 7.5% increase in live birth rate and similar costs to HSG with water-based contrast.

BackgroundRepeated admission to hospital can be a stressful and negative experience for older people and their families and puts additional pressure on the health care system. While there is evidence about strategies to better integrate care and improve older patients' experiences at transitions of care, thus helping to reduce hospital readmissions, implementing these strategies at scale is challenging. The objective of this project is to improve the pathways of care for older people after discharge from hospital by leveraging existing large datasets and an established collaborative network of clinicians, consumers, academics, and aged care providers. MethodsThe project will be undertaken in the state of South Australia and focuses on people aged 65 and over. A mixed methods approach will be adopted, with three inter-linked work packages that aim to: analyse existing registry data to profile individuals at high risk of emergency department encounters and hospital admissions; evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of existing ‘out-of-hospital’ programs provided within the state; implement and evaluate a statewide quality improvement collaborative to tackle key interventions likely to improve older people’s care at points of transitions. The study is underpinned by an integrated approach to knowledge translation, with active engagement of a broad range of stakeholders throughout, to optimize the relevance and sustainability of the changes that are introduced. DiscussionThis project highlights the uniqueness and potential value of a multi-faceted approach (risk profiling; evaluation framework; implementation and evaluation) to improving health services. The project aims to develop a practical and scalable solution to a challenging health service problem for frail older people and service providers.Trial registrationNot applicable.

Does delaying IVF for 6 months in couples with unexplained infertility, compared with immediate IVF treatment, decrease the cost of IVF without compromising success rates?Decision modelling was used to evaluate the cost and outcomes of immediate IVF versus delayed IVF for a cohort of women aged40 years suffering unexplained infertility. Australian data and costs were used in the analysis. For different age groups, three scenarios were tested where 10%, 50% and 90% of couples with unexplained infertility delayed IVF for 6 months if they had a good prognosis for natural conception. The study included a total of 8781 couples aged40 years, diagnosed with unexplained infertility and who had IVF in 2013.The studied couples underwent 27,648 fresh and frozen embryo transfers, for an estimated total cost of $141 million. Potential out-of-pocket cost savings if 90% of couples delayed IVF ranged from $4.7 to $12.2 million, with Medicare cost savings of up to $15.1 million. The impact on the total pregnancy and live birth rates after 18 months was minimal.In couples with unexplained infertility and a good prognosis for natural conception, delaying IVF for 6 months could substantially decrease out-of-pocket costs without compromising pregnancy and live birth rates over an 18-month period.

Study question Is a freeze-only strategy more cost-effective from a patient perspective than fresh embryo transfer (ET) after one completed In Vitro Fertilization/ Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection (IVF/ICSI) cycle in women without polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS)? Summary answer There is a low probability of the freeze-only strategy being cost-effective over the fresh ET strategy for non-PCOS women undergoing IVF/ICSI. What is known already Conventionally, IVF embryos are transferred in the same cycle in which oocytes are collected, while any remaining embryos are frozen and stored. We recently evaluated the effectiveness of a freeze-only strategy compared with a fresh ET strategy in a randomized controlled trial (RCT). There was no difference in live birth rate between the two strategies. Study design, size, duration A cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) was performed alongside the RCT to compare a freeze-only strategy with a fresh ET strategy in non-PCOS women undergoing IVF/ICSI. The effectiveness measure for the CEA was the live birth rate. Data on the IVF procedure, pregnancy outcomes and complications were collected from chart review; additional information was obtained using patient questionnaires, by telephone. Participants/materials, setting, methods For all patients, we measured the direct medical costs relating to treatment (cryopreservation, pregnancy follow-up, delivery), direct non-medical costs (travel, accommodation) and indirect costs (income lost). The direct cost data were calculated from resources obtained from patient records and prices were applied based on a micro-costing approach. Indirect costs were calculated based on responses to the questionnaire. Patients were followed until all embryos obtained from a single controlled ovarian hyperstimulation cycle were used or a live birth was achieved. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was based on the incremental cost per couple and the incremental live birth rate of the freeze-only strategy compared with the fresh ET strategy. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) were also performed. Main results and the role of chance Between June 2015 and April 2016, 782 couples were randomized to a freeze-only (n = 391) or a fresh ET strategy (n = 391). Baseline characteristics including mean age, Body Mass Index (BMI), anti-Mullerian hormone, total dose of Follicle Stimulating Hormone (FSH), number of oocytes obtained, good quality Day 3 embryos, fertility outcomes and treatment complications were comparable between the two groups. The live birth rate (48.6% vs. 47.3%, respectively; risk ratio, 1.03; 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 0.89, 1.19; P = 0.78) and the average cost per couple (3906 vs. 3512 EUR, respectively; absolute difference 393.6, 95% CI, -76.2, 863.5; P = 0.1) were similar in the freeze-only group versus fresh ET. Corresponding costs per live birth were 8037 EUR versus 7425 EUR in the freeze-only versus fresh ET group, respectively. The incremental cost for the freeze-only strategy compared with fresh ET was 30 997 EUR per 1% additional live birth rate. The direct non-medical costs and indirect costs of infertility treatment strategies represented ~45-52% of the total cost. PSA shows that the 95% CI of ICERs was -263 901 to 286 681 EUR. Out of 1000 simulations, 44% resulted in negative ICERs, including 13.0% of simulations in which the freeze-only strategy was dominant (more effective and less costly than fresh ET), and 31% of simulations in which the fresh embryo strategy was dominant. In the other 560 simulations with positive ICERs, the 95% CI of ICERs ranged from 2155 to 471 578 EUR. The CEAC shows that at a willingness to pay threshold of 300 000 EUR, the probability of the freeze-only strategy being cost-effective over the fresh ET strategy would be 58%. Limitations, reasons for caution Data were collected from a single private IVF center study in Vietnam where there is no public or insurance funding of IVF. Unit costs obtained might not be representative of other settings. Data obtained from secondary sources (medical records, financial and activity reports) could lack authenticity, and recall bias may have influenced questionnaire responses on which direct costs were based. Wider implications of the findings In non-PCOS women undergoing IVF/ICSI, the results suggested that the freeze-only strategy was not cost-effective compared with fresh ET from a patient perspective. These findings indicate that other factors could be more important in deciding whether to use a freeze-only versus fresh ET strategy in this patient group. Study funding/competing interest(s) This study was funded by My Duc Hospital; no external funding was received. Ben Willem J. Mol is supported by an NHMRC Practioner Fellowship (GNT 1082548) and reports consultancy for Merck, ObsEva and Guerbet. Robert J. Norman has shares in an IVF company and has received support from Merck and Ferring. All other authors have no conflicts of interest to declare. Trial registration number Not applicable.

Objective: To determine the cost effectiveness of the use of oil-based versus water-based contrast in infertile women undergoing hysterosalpingography (HSG).Design: Economic evaluation alongside a multicenter randomized trial.Setting: Hospitals.Patient(s): Infertile women with an ovulatory cycle, 18-39 years of age, low risk of tubal pathology.Intervention(s): Use of oil-based versus water-based contrast during HSG.Main Outcome Measure(s): Costs per additional ongoing pregnancy and per live birth within 6 months of randomization, incremental cost-effective ratios (ICERs).Result(s): A total of 1,119 women were randomized to HSG (oil-based contrast, n = 557; water-based contrast, n = 562). After HSG, most women had no additional treatment; a minority had IUI or IVF. In the oil group, 39.7% women had an ongoing pregnancy within 6 months of randomization versus 29.1% women in the water group. There was a 10.7% increase in the live birth rate in the oil group. For ongoing pregnancy, the mean costs per couple were US$2,014 in the oil group and US$1,144 in the water group, with a corresponding ICER of US$8,198 per additional ongoing pregnancy. For live birth, the mean costs per couple were US$11,532 in the oil group and US$8,310 in the water group, with a corresponding ICER of US$30,112 per additional live birth.Conclusion(s): Hysterosalpingography with oil-based contrast results in higher 6-month ongoing pregnancy and live birth rate. If society is willing to pay US$8,198 for an additional ongoing pregnancy, HSG with oil-based contrast is a cost-effective strategy compared with HSG with water-based contrast for infertile, ovulatory women at low risk for tubal pathology.Clinical Trial Registration Number: Dutch Trial Register, NTR 6577 (www.trialregister.nl). (C) 2018 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.

We would like to thank Dr Tottman and colleagues for providing some clinical case studies and the clinical context that validates the decision modelling in our article. This strengthens the message to delay elective caesarean section to 39 weeks gestation in the absence of a medical indication. [...]

Review objectives/questions:The objectives of the review are to:Identify and collect relevant international scientific evidence on strategies aimed facilitate or improving healthcare practitioners’ adoption of shared decision making (SDM) in elective surgery.Evaluate the effectiveness of these strat

Rationale, aims and objectives A physician-led clinic for the preoperative optimization and management of high-risk surgical patients was implemented in a South Australian public hospital in 2008. This study aimed to estimate the costs and effects of the clinic using a mixed retrospective and prospective observational study design. Method Alternative propensity score estimation methods were applied to retrospective routinely collected administrative and clinical data, using weighted and matched cohorts. Supplementary survey-based prospective data were collected to inform the analysis of the retrospective data and reduce potential unmeasured confounding. Results Using weighted cohorts, clinic patients had a significantly longer mean length of stay and higher mean cost. With the matched cohorts, reducing the calliper width resulted in a shorter mean length of stay in the clinic group, but the costs remained significantly higher. The prospective data indicated potential unmeasured confounding in all analyses other than in the most tightly matched cohorts. Conclusions The application of alternative propensity-based approaches to a large sample of retrospective data, supplemented with a smaller sample of prospective data, informed a pragmatic approach to reducing potential observed and unmeasured confounding in an evaluation of a physician-led preoperative clinic. The need to generate tightly matched cohorts to reduce the potential for unmeasured confounding indicates that significant uncertainty remains around the effects of the clinic. This study illustrates the value of mixed retrospective and prospective observational study designs but also underlines the need to prospectively plan for the evaluation of costs and effects alongside the implementation of significant service innovations.

Background There is growing policy emphasis on self-management as an essential component of musculoskeletal chronic care models. Underpinning this drive is the assumption that with correct ‘informational’ framing people will better manage their condition's progression and thereby maintain quality of life. Objective To assess associations between self-management behaviours and health-related quality of life for people with chronic musculoskeletal conditions. Design Using survey data from health census and follow-up structured telephone interviews, linear regression (cumulatively adjusted for potential confounders) and logistic regression examined associations between use of specific self-management behaviours and quality of life. Setting and participants A total of 885 respondents (2012) who indicated still having a musculoskeletal condition reported in a 2010 health census (Port Lincoln, South Australia). Variables Specific self-management activities, age, sex, education, marital status, smoking, comorbidities and pain. Outcome measure EQ-5D-5L. Results Exercise (63%) and diet (19%) were the most commonly reported self-management activities used to manage musculoskeletal conditions. About 24% reported not using any specific self-management activities. Involvement in self-management showed no association with quality of life, with and without adjustment for confounders. Diet had a negative association with quality of life as did use of formal support (self-management course or community group support). Discussion Taking a real-world perspective, these findings raise important questions about how people currently engage with self-management activities and the kinds of outcomes that can be expected from undertaking these activities. The timing of people's uptake of self-management within the musculoskeletal disease continuum is an issue requiring further attention in both research and practice.

ObjectiveClinics have been established to provide preoperative medical consultations, and enable the anaesthetist and surgeon to deliver the best surgical outcome for patients. However, there is uncertainty regarding the effect of such clinics on surgical, in-hospital and long-term outcomes. A systematic review of the literature was conducted to determine the effectiveness of preoperative medical consultations by internal medicine physicians for patients listed for elective surgery.DesignSystematic searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PubMed, Current Contents and the NHS Centre for Reviews and Dissemination were conducted up to 30 April 2017.SettingElective surgery.Study selectionRandomised controlled trials and non-randomised comparative studies conducted in adults.Outcome measuresLength of hospital stay, perioperative morbidity and mortality, costs and quality of life.ResultsThe one randomised trial reported that preadmission preoperative assessment was more effective than the option of an inpatient medical assessment in reducing the frequency of unnecessary admissions with significantly fewer surgical cancellations following admission for surgery. A small reduction in length of stay in patients was also observed. The three non-randomised studies reported increased lengths of stay, costs and postoperative complications in patients who received preoperative assessment. The timing and delivery of the preoperative medical consultation in the intervention group differed across the included studies.ConclusionFurther research is required to inform the design and implementation of coordinated involvement of physicians and surgeons in the provision of care for high-risk surgical patients. A standardised approach to perioperative decision-making processes should be developed with a clear protocol or guideline for the assessment and management of surgical patients.

Background While current debates on how to deliver sustainable health care recognise socio-economic dimensions to health service use, attention has focussed on how to reduce demand for services. However, the measures of demand may not account for a subgroup of the population who to date have remained out of sight because they do not access health services. This study aimed to describe the characteristics of individuals who self-reported having fair or poor health but did not use health services. Methods Data from the 2010 LINKIN health census survey (n = 7895) and the 2013 HILDA National Panel Survey (n = 13,609) were analysed focussing on the population who self-reported their overall health status as fair or poor. Simple and multivariable logistic regression modelling examined characteristics associated with a lack of health services use. The outcome measure of interest was no health service use in the previous 12 months and co-variables included demographic and socioeconomic indicators, health-related quality of life, having no health condition and health risk factors. Results Overall 21% of LINKIN respondents reported their overall health as fair or poor compared to 18% in the HILDA dataset. In LINKIN, 4.4% of those reporting fair or poor health, reported not using any health service provider in the past 12 months. Similarly, 4.5% of HILDA respondents were non-users. When adjusted for multiple co-variables, unemployment (aOR 3.24, 95% CI 1.28-8.17), educational level at Year 10 or below (aOR 1.94, 95% CI 1.02-3.70) and smoking (aOR 2.67, 95% CI 1.38-5.17) were significantly associated with non-use for the LINKIN data, as did lack of health conditions (aOR 0.18, 95% CI 0.08-0.41). The HILDA regression analyses indicated the same directions of association between equivalent variables and lack of health service use, with the exception of educational level. Conclusions In line with recent assertions on real denominators in health need, this study describes those people rarely included in the population at risk and the potential for systematic bias towards the overestimation of the effectiveness of interventions. This study informs current policy debates and planning, including how we connect with hard-to-reach populations and how this sub-group might be more appropriately included when measuring effectiveness of health policies and programs.

Background There are a subset of potentially modifiable co-morbidities that may be targeted in the preoperative phase with a view to optimizing control and improving post-operative outcomes. This study aims to estimate the effect of potentially modifiable co-morbidities on post-operative outcomes and to identify potential targets for preoperative management. Methods Retrospective data on hospital separations in South Australia were analyzed using multiple regression to estimate the association between nine potentially modifiable co-morbidities and length of stay, post-operative complications and in-hospital mortality. Results After adjusting for primary diagnosis, age, gender and other potential confounders, significant increases in length of stay and complications were recorded for eight and six of the nine modifiable co-morbidities, respectively. As examples, previous heart failure was associated with a 54% increase in length of stay and an odds ratio of 1.75 for complications. Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was associated with a 38% increase in length of stay and an odds ratio of 1.64 for complications. Conclusions A set of potentially modifiable co-morbidities is associated with a range of poorer post-operative outcomes, relative to patients without those co-morbidities. There is a clinical rationale that outcomes will be worse in the subset of patients for whom such co-morbidities are poorly controlled, and that timely intervention to improve control in the period prior to surgery will improve post-operative outcomes. Further research is required on post-operative outcomes for patients with and without controlled co-morbidities and on the effects of timely intervention to improve control prior to surgery.

Background: Despite advances in vascular surgery techniques, ageing populations and increasing rates of vascular disease and diabetes have contributed to relatively steady amputation rates. Older amputees have limited life expectancies and often require expensive rehabilitation interventions on top of vascular procedures. Services warrant scrutiny with view to reducing clinical practice variations, improving hospital performance and securing the best patient outcomes. Objective: This study employed a novel methodology to assess 12-month hospital performance associated with provision of lower-limb amputee services at three neighbouring hospitals. Design and Setting: Routinely collected data on individuals having an initial lower-limb amputation from July 2001 to June 2008 at three hospital networks in Adelaide, South Australia were analysed. Observed and expected lengths of stay and patient outcomes were generated, from which relative performance across hospitals were compared. Results: Following amputation we observed a short time-to-death (0.8 years, IQR 0.21-2.12) and 12-month mortality rate of 25% (unadjusted). Risk-adjusted analyses indicated that one hospital with co-located vascular and rehabilitation services had greater performance with lower re-amputation rates and fewer deaths. However, length of stay at this hospital was longer than expected. Conclusion: The risk-adjusted performance analysis provided an approach which could inform further investigations around variation in hospital performance to inform best practice service delivery. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Cost-effectiveness analysis is well established for pharmaceuticals and medical technologies but not for evaluating variations in clinical practice. This paper describes a novel methodology--risk adjusted cost-effectiveness (RAC-E)--that facilitates the comparative evaluation of applied clinical practice processes. In this application, risk adjustment is undertaken with a multivariate matching algorithm that balances the baseline characteristics of patients attending different settings (e.g., hospitals). Linked, routinely collected data are used to analyse patient-level costs and outcomes over a 2-year period, as well as to extrapolate costs and survival over patient lifetimes. The study reports the relative cost-effectiveness of alternative forms of clinical practice, including a full representation of the statistical uncertainty around the mean estimates. The methodology is illustrated by a case study that evaluates the relative cost-effectiveness of services for patients presenting with acute chest pain across the four main public hospitals in South Australia. The evaluation finds that services provided at two hospitals were dominated, and of the remaining services, the more effective hospital gained life years at a low mean additional cost and had an 80% probability of being the most cost-effective hospital at realistic cost-effectiveness thresholds. Potential determinants of the estimated variation in costs and effects were identified, although more detailed analyses to identify specific areas of variation in clinical practice are required to inform improvements at the less cost-effective institutions.

Laparoscopic ventral hernia repair may be an alternative to open mesh repair as it avoids a large abdominal incision, and thus potentially reduces pain and hospital stay. This review aimed to assess the safety and efficacy of laparoscopic ventral hernia repair in comparison with open ventral hernia repair. A systematic review was conducted, with comprehensive searches identifying six randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and eight nonrandomised comparative studies. The laparoscopic approach may have a lower recurrence rate than the open approach and required a shorter hospital stay. Five RCTs (Barbaros et al., Hernia 11:51–56, 2007; Misra et al., Surg Endosc 20:1839–1845, 2006; Navarra et al., Surg Laparosc Endosc Percutan Tech 17:86–90, 2007; Moreno-Egea et al., Arch Surg 137:266–1268, 2002; Carbajo et al., Surg Endosc 13:250–252, 1999) reported no conversion (0%) to open surgery, and four nonrandomised studies reported conversions to open surgery ranging from 0% to 14%. Open approach complications generally were wound related, whereas the laparoscopic approach reported both wound- and procedure-related complications and these appeared to be less frequently reported. Based on current evidence, the relative safety and efficacy of the laparoscopic approach in comparison with the open approach remains uncertain. The laparoscopic approach may be more suitable for straightforward hernias, with open repair reserved for the more complex hernias. Laparoscopic ventral hernia repair appears to be an acceptable alternative that can be offered by surgeons proficient in advanced laparoscopic techniques.

A physician-led clinic for the preoperative optimization and management of high-risk surgical patients was implemented in a South Australian public hospital in 2008. This study aimed to estimate the costs and effects of the clinic using a mixed retrospective and prospective observational study design.Alternative propensity score estimation methods were applied to retrospective routinely collected administrative and clinical data, using weighted and matched cohorts. Supplementary survey-based prospective data were collected to inform the analysis of the retrospective data and reduce potential unmeasured confounding.Using weighted cohorts, clinic patients had a significantly longer mean length of stay and higher mean cost. With the matched cohorts, reducing the calliper width resulted in a shorter mean length of stay in the clinic group, but the costs remained significantly higher. The prospective data indicated potential unmeasured confounding in all analyses other than in the most tightly matched cohorts.The application of alternative propensity-based approaches to a large sample of retrospective data, supplemented with a smaller sample of prospective data, informed a pragmatic approach to reducing potential observed and unmeasured confounding in an evaluation of a physician-led preoperative clinic. The need to generate tightly matched cohorts to reduce the potential for unmeasured confounding indicates that significant uncertainty remains around the effects of the clinic. This study illustrates the value of mixed retrospective and prospective observational study designs but also underlines the need to prospectively plan for the evaluation of costs and effects alongside the implementation of significant service innovations.

Objective To determine if and to what extent postnatal women's preferences for birth outcomes differ from those of midwives and medical staff, and whether any variations in utility scores are associated with demographic variables. Design Cross sectional cohort study. Setting The Women's and Children's Hospital, Adelaide. Population A total of 180 participants which included 90 postnatal women, 59 midwives and 31 medical staff. Methods Preferences (utility scores) for eight birth outcomes were measured by direct interviews using two utility techniques: the visual analogue scale and the standard gamble. Main outcome measures Preferences (utility scores) for eight birth outcomes. Results Women assigned higher utility scores for the five birth outcomes of jaundice requiring phototherapy, admission to neonatal nursery, shoulder dystocia, nerve palsy and transient neurological symptoms than midwives, which suggested that women regarded these outcomes as less severe ( P P P Conclusion Utility values for important birth outcomes varied between women who had recently given birth and health professionals. Clinical practice should recognise and respect the preferences of women, with appropriate balance between their preferences, those of health professionals and the known benefits of care.

Objectives To describe the burden of bone and joint problems (BJP) in a defined regional population, and to identify characteristics and service-usage patterns. Methods In 2010, a health census of adults aged ≥15 years was conducted in Port Lincoln, South Australia. A follow-up computer-assisted telephone interview provided more specific information about those with BJP. Results Overall, 3350 people (42%) reported current BJP. General practitioners (GP) were the most commonly used provider (85%). People with BJP were also 85% more likely to visit chiropractors, twice as likely to visit physiotherapists and 34% more likely to visit Accident and Emergency or GP out of hours (compared with the rest of the population). Among the phenotypes, those with BJP with co-morbidities were more likely to visit GP, had a significantly higher mean pain score and higher levels of depression or anxiety compared with those with BJP only. Those with BJP only were more likely to visit physiotherapists. Conclusions GP were significant providers for those with co-morbidities, the group who also reported higher levels of pain and mental distress. GP have a central role in effectively managing this phenotype within the BJP population including linking allied health professionals with general practice to manage BJP more efficiently. What is known about the topic? As a highly prevalent group of conditions that are likely to impact on health-related quality of life and are a common cause of severe long-term disability, musculoskeletal conditions place a significant burden on individuals and the health system. However, far less is known about access and usage of musculoskeletal-related health services and programs in Australia. What does this paper add? As a result of analysing the characteristics of the overall BJP population, as well as phenotypes within it, a greater understanding of patterns of health service interactions, care pathways and opportunities for targeted improvements in delivery of care may be identified. The results emphasise that participants with BJP utilised the services of a narrow range of providers, which may have workforce implications for these sectors. The funding models for physiotherapists and chiropractors in Australia involve a mix of private and fees for service, which limits access to those who have private health insurance or can pay directly for these services. What are the implications for practitioners? These analyses indicate the importance of linking allied health professionals with general practice to manage BJP more efficiently. Alternative and appropriate care pathways need to be more strongly developed and identified for effective management of these conditions rather than relying on a traditional range of practitioners. Alternatively, greater ease of access to allied health practitioners may enable more effective treatment and improved quality of life for those with BJP. There is an urgent need to develop an effective population-based model of integrated care for BJP within regional Australia.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited., Background Methods for the cost-effectiveness analysis of health technologies are now well established, but such methods may also have a useful role in the context of evaluating the effects of variation in applied clinical practice. This study illustrates a general methodology for the comparative analysis of applied clinical practice at alternative institutions – risk adjusted cost-effectiveness (RAC-E) analysis – with an application that compares acute hospital services for stroke patients admitted to the main public hospitals in South Australia. Methods Using linked, routinely collected data on all South Australian hospital separations from July 2001 to June 2008, an analysis of the RAC-E of services provided at four metropolitan hospitals was undertaken using a decision analytic framework. Observed (plus extrapolated) and expected lifetime costs and survival were compared across patient populations, from which the relative cost-effectiveness of services provided at the different hospitals was estimated. Results Unadjusted results showed that at one hospital patients incurred fewer costs and gained more life years than at the other hospitals (i.e. it was the dominant hospital). After risk adjustment, the cost minimizing hospital incurred the lowest costs, but with fewer life-years gained than one other hospital. The mean incremental cost per life-year gained of services provided at the most effective hospital was under $20,000, with an associated 65% probability of being cost-effective at a $50,000 per life year monetary threshold. Conclusions RAC-E analyses can be used to identify important variation in the costs and outcomes associated with clinical practice at alternative institutions. Such data provides an impetus for further investigation to identify specific areas of variation, which may then inform the dissemination of best practice service delivery and organisation.

The aim of this study was to assess trends in hip fracture rates and outcomes following hospitalisation for hip fracture. Hip fracture admissions increased over the study period. Men fared worst in terms of higher absolute mortality. Refracture rates and male health outcomes require further attention.The aim of this study was to assess trends in hip fracture rates and outcomes following hospitalisation for hip fracture in South Australia (SA).Analysis of routinely collected, linked hospital separations data, of patients admitted to public and private hospitals in SA with a principal diagnosis of femoral neck fracture between July 2002 and June 2008 was done. Main outcome measures include number and rates of hospital admissions, 30-day in-hospital and 1-year mortality following a first hip fracture and subsequent event rates, by age and sex.Unadjusted hip fracture admissions increased in SA from 2002 to 2008 by 20 %, age-standardised (adjusted) admission rates increased overall (+5 %, p = 0.215) and significantly amongst males (+26 %, p = 0.001), while there was no change among women (−1 %, p = 0.763). Within 1 year of a hip fracture, 7 % had broken another bone (5 % had refractured a hip). At 1 year post-fracture, unadjusted mortality was consistently and considerably higher amongst men compared to women (33 versus 19 %, p 0.001). Age-standardised mortality from admission to 1 year fell but not statistically significantly by 15 % in women (p = 0.131) and 8 % in men (p = 0.510). Women had a reduction in age-standardised in-hospital mortality over time (p = 0.048); there was a non-significant decline in men (p = 0.080).Hip fracture admissions in SA increased over the study period and this appears to be driven by an increase in admissions amongst men. Men fared worst in terms of higher absolute mortality. There is some evidence to suggest refracture rates and male health outcomes require further attention.

Objective To assess the safety and efficacy of bioengineered skin substitutes in comparison with biological skin replacements and/or standard dressing methods in the management of burns, through a systematic review of the literature. Methods Literature databases were searched up to April 2006, identifying randomised controlled trials. Results Twenty randomised controlled trials were included in this review. The numerous sub-group analyses and the diversity of skin substitutes limited the ability to draw any conclusions from it. However, the evidence suggested that bioengineered skin substitutes, namely Biobrane ® , TransCyte ® , Dermagraft ® , Apligraf ® , autologous cultured skin, and allogeneic cultured skin, were at least as safe as biological skin replacements or topical agents/wound dressings. The safety of Integra ® could not be determined. For the management of partial thickness burns, the evidence suggested that bioengineered skin substitutes, namely Biobrane ® , TransCyte ® , Dermagraft ® , and allogeneic cultured skin, were at least as efficacious as topical agents/wound dressings or allograft. Apligraf ® combined with autograft was at least as efficacious as autograft alone. For the management of full thickness burns, the efficacy of autologous cultured skin could not be determined based on the available evidence. The efficacy of Integra ® could not be determined based on the available evidence. Conclusions Additional methodologically rigorous randomised controlled trials with long-term follow-up would strengthen the evidence base for the use of bioengineered skin substitutes.

Topical negative pressure (TNP) therapy was developed as an alternative to ‘standard’ forms of wound management and can be used for the early management of acute trauma or when more conventional methods have failed. Conventional methods of wound management include surgical debridement or the Healthpoint System (Healthpoint, Fort Worth, USA) which involves the use of three Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved gel products

To assess the effectiveness of different strategies for increasing the uptake of prophylaxis for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hospitalized patients through a systematic review of the literature.Literature databases and the Internet were searched from 1996 to May 2003. Studies of strategies to improve VTE prophylaxis practice were included. Studies where no policy or guideline was implemented or where the focus of the study was not VTE prevention were excluded.Thirty studies were included. The quality of the available evidence was average with the majority of studies being uncontrolled before and after design and thus limited by the historical nature of much of the available data. Adherence to guidelines and the provision of adequate prophylaxis were poor in studies which relied on passive dissemination of guidelines. In general, the use of multiple strategies was more effective than a single strategy used in isolation. The most effective strategies incorporated a system for reminding clinicians to assess patients for VTE risk, either electronic decision-support systems or paper-based reminders, and used audit and feedback to facilitate the iterative refinement of the intervention. There were no studies adequately powered to demonstrate a reduction in rates of VTE. Insufficient evidence was available to make useful comparisons of strategies in terms of costs and resource utilization.Passive dissemination of guidelines is unlikely to improve VTE prophylaxis practice. A number of active strategies used together, which incorporate some method for reminding clinicians to assess patients for DVT risk and assisting the selection of appropriate prophylaxis, are likely to result in the achievement of optimal outcomes.

Objective. Proposed Australian healthcare reforms describe a move towards partial Commonwealth funding of public hospitals, whereby hospitals will be paid an ‘efficient price’ for each separation, incorporating both the costs and benefits of services. This paper describes a potential approach to setting the efficient price using risk adjusted cost-effectiveness (RAC-E) analysis. Methods. RAC-E analysis uses a decision analytic framework to estimate lifetime costs and survival for individual patients, which are standardised by comparing observed and expected values. Analysis of standardised costs and effects at different hospitals identifies efficient hospitals, from which efficient prices can be defined. Results. A RAC-E analysis of services for stroke patients at the four main public hospitals in South Australia demonstrates the need to account for costs and benefits in identifying efficient hospitals. The hospital with the best patient outcomes incurred additional costs relative to less effective hospitals. If an investment of AU$14 760 to gain an additional life year in stroke patients is deemed to be a cost-effective use of resources, then the most effective hospital is also the most efficient hospital. Conclusions. The applied RAC-E analysis demonstrates a framework for comparing the economic efficiency of care provided at different hospitals, which provides a basis for defining the efficient price and appropriate funding incentives to achieve better patient outcomes. What is known about the topic? The efficient price is a recently introduced concept used in the context of the recent healthcare reforms produced by the Australian government. The stated objective in setting nationally efficient prices for public hospital services is to ‘strike an appropriate balance between reasonable access, clinical safety, efficiency and fiscal considerations’. There has been no explicit discussion to date about specific processes for estimating the efficient price. What does this paper add? This paper introduces risk adjusted cost-effectiveness (RAC-E) analysis as a framework for identifying hospitals that achieve the best balance between costs and outcomes in the provision of services for specific diagnostic groups, and hence provides the basis for estimating efficient prices. What are the implications for practitioners? The efficient price will determine a significant proportion of funding for public hospitals. Practitioners need to be aware of the rationale and potential consequences of the efficient price, and to be sure that the method used to estimate the efficient price is robust and transparent.