Sophie Rossi, Pascal Marchand, Bruno Garin-Bastuji, Elodie Petit, Sébastien Lambert, Dominique Gauthier, Emmanuelle Gilot-Fromont, Carole Toïgo, Jean-Michel Gaillard, Anne Thébault, Systèmes de Référence Temps Espace (SYRTE), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Biodémographie évolutive, Département écologie évolutive [LBBE], Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive - UMR 5558 (LBBE), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive - UMR 5558 (LBBE), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Office National de la Chasse et de la Faune Sauvage (ONCFS), Cibles et médicaments de l'infection, de l'immunité et du cancer (IICiMed), Université de Nantes - UFR des Sciences Pharmaceutiques et Biologiques, Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN), UNIROUEN - UFR Santé (UNIROUEN UFR Santé), Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU), Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l'alimentation, de l'environnement et du travail (ANSES), Direction de l'Evaluation des Risques (DER), This work was performed using the computing facilities of the CC LBBE/PRABI and of the CC IN2P3, and performed within the framework of the LABEX ECOFECT (ANR-11-LABX-0048) of Université de Lyon, within the program 'Investissements d'Avenir' (ANR- 11-IDEX-0007) operated by the French National Research Agency (ANR). The authors want to thank the scientific experts of the ANSES working groups on brucellosis of Alpine ibex in the Bargy massif, and especially Jean-Pierre Ganière and José-Maria Blasco, who helped for the range values of parameters for the sensitivity analysis. The authors also want to thank the field technicians and researchers, especially Jean Hars, from the French Wildlife and Hunting Agency (ONCFS), who performed monitoring and management of the Alpine ibex population. The authors are also grateful to Elizabeta Vergu and Benoit Durand for their precious insights with the design of the ABC calibration, to Vincent Miele for his help optimising the code of the model, to Christian Willisch for answering questions about Alpine ibex mating tactics and to Clément Calenge for his analyses of the social structure of Alpine ibex in our population. They also thank an anonymous referee for constructive comments on a previous version., ANR-11-LABX-0048,ECOFECT,Dynamiques eco-évolutives des maladies infectieuses(2011), Cibles et Médicaments des Infections et de l'Immunité (IICiMed), and Direction de la Stratégie et des Programmes (DSP)
Heterogeneity of infectious disease transmission can be generated by individual differences in the frequency of contacts with susceptible individuals, in the ability to transmit the infectious agent or in the duration of infection, and by spatial variation in the distribution, density or movements of hosts. Identifying spatial and individual heterogeneity can help improving management strategies to eradicate or mitigate infectious diseases, by targeting the individuals or areas that are responsible for most transmissions. Individual-based models allow quantifying the respective role of these sources of heterogeneity by integrating potential mechanisms that generate heterogeneity and then by tracking transmissions caused by each infected individual. In this study, we provide an individual-based model of endemic brucellosis Brucella melitensis transmission in the population of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) of the Bargy massif (France) by taking advantage of detailed information available on ibex population dynamics, behaviour, and habitat use, and on epidemiological surveys. This host-pathogen system is expected to be subject of both individual and spatial heterogeneity. We first estimated the transmission probabilities, hitherto unknown, of the two main transmission routes of the infection (i.e., exposure to infectious births/abortions and venereal transmission). Then, we quantified heterogeneity at both individual and spatial levels. We found that both transmission routes are not negligible to explain the data, and that there is a high amount of heterogeneity of the host-pathogen system at the individual level, with females generating around 90% of the new cases of brucellosis infection. Males transmit infection at a lesser extent but still play a non-negligible role because they move between subpopulations and thereby create opportunities for spreading the infection spatially by venereal transmission. Two particular socio-spatial units are hotspots of transmission, and act as sources of transmission for the other units. These results may have important implications for disease management strategies.