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Background: Nosocomial infections are costly, and airborne transmission is increasingly recognized as important for spread. Air cleaning units (ACUs) may reduce transmission, but little research has focused on their effectiveness on open wards., Aim: To assess whether ACUs reduce nosocomial severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), or other, infections on older adult inpatient wards., Methods: This was a quasi-experimental before-and-after study on two intervention-control ward pairs in a UK teaching hospital. Infections were identified using routinely collected electronic health record data during 1 year of ACU implementation and the preceding year ('core study period'). Extended analyses included 6 months of additional data from one ward pair following ACU removal. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated through Cox regression controlling for age, sex, ward and background infection risk. The time that the ACUs were switched on was also recorded for Intervention Ward 2., Findings: ACUs were initially feasible, but compliance reduced towards the end of the study (average operation in first vs second half of ACU time on Intervention Ward 2: 77% vs 53%). In total, 8171 admissions for >48 h (6112 patients, median age 85 years) were included. Overall, the incidence of ward-acquired SARS-CoV-2 was 3.8%. ACU implementation was associated with a non-significant trend of lower hazard for SARS-CoV-2 infection [HR core study period 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53-1.52; HR extended study period 0.78, 95% CI 0.53-1.14]. Only 1.5% of admissions resulted in other notable ward-acquired infections., Conclusion: ACUs may reduce SARS-CoV-2 infection to a clinically meaningfully degree. Larger studies could reduce uncertainty, perhaps using a crossover design, and factors influencing acceptability to staff and patients should be explored further., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest statement CB is an expert witness in Module 3 of the UK COVID-19 Inquiry, and has received financial remuneration for his work in this capacity. MB and CP have undertaken work for FreshAirNHS, a non-profit campaigning organization advocating for airborne mitigations within the NHS; they have not received any financial remunerations for this work. ACM sits on the scientific advisory board of Cambridge Infection Diagnostics, and has received speaking fees from bioMérieux, Fischer and Paykel, ThermoFisher and Boston Scientific., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Viruses that infect animals regularly spill over into the human population, but individual events may lead to anything from a single case to a novel pandemic. Rapidly gaining an understanding of a spillover event is critical to calibrating a public health response. We here propose a novel method, using likelihood-free rejection sampling, to evaluate the properties of an outbreak of swine-origin influenza A(H1N2)v in the United Kingdom, detected in November 2023. From the limited data available, we generate historical estimates of the probability that the outbreak had died out in the days following the detection of the first case. Our method suggests that the outbreak could have been said to be over with 95% certainty between 19 and 29 days after the first case was detected, depending upon the probability of a case being detected. We further estimate the number of undetected cases conditional upon the outbreak still being live, the epidemiological parameter R 0 , and the date on which the spillover event itself occurred. Our method requires minimal data to be effective. While our calculations were performed after the event, the real-time application of our method has potential value for public health responses to cases of emerging viral infection.

The transmission bottleneck describes the number of viral particles that initiate an infection in a new host. Previous studies have used genome sequence data to suggest that transmission bottlenecks for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 involve few viral particles, but the general principles of virus transmission are not fully understood. Here we show that, across a broad range of circumstances, tight transmission bottlenecks are a simple consequence of the physical process of airborne viral transmission. We use mathematical modelling to describe the physical process of the emission and inhalation of infectious particles, deriving the result that that the great majority of transmission bottlenecks involve few viral particles. While exceptions to this rule exist, the circumstances needed to create these exceptions are likely very rare. We thus provide a physical explanation for previous inferences of bottleneck size, while predicting that tight transmission bottlenecks prevail more generally in respiratory virus transmission., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Mutagenic antiviral drugs have shown promise against multiple viruses, but concerns have been raised about whether their use might promote the emergence of new and harmful viral variants. Recently, genetic signatures associated with molnupiravir use have been identified in the global SARS-COV-2 population. Here, we examine the consequences of using favipiravir and molnupiravir to treat SARS-CoV-2 infection in a hamster model, comparing viral genome sequence data collected from (1) untreated hamsters, and (2) from hamsters receiving effective and suboptimal doses of treatment. We identify a broadly linear relationship between drug dose and the extent of variation in treated viral populations, with a high proportion of this variation being composed of variants at frequencies of less than 1 per cent, below typical thresholds for variant calling. Treatment with an effective dose of antiviral drug was associated with a gain of between 7 and 10 variants per viral genome relative to drug-free controls: even after a short period of treatment a population founded by a transmitted virus could contain multiple sequence differences to that of the original host. Treatment with a suboptimal dose of drug showed intermediate gains of variants. No dose-dependent signal was identified in the numbers of single-nucleotide variants reaching frequencies in excess of 5 per cent. We did not find evidence to support the emergence of drug resistance or of novel immune phenotypes. Our study suggests that where onward transmission occurs, a short period of treatment with mutagenic drugs may be sufficient to generate a significant increase in the number of viral variants transmitted., Competing Interests: None declared., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Purpose: The aim of this study was to conduct a process evaluation of a whole-genome sequence report form (SRF) used to reduce nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 through changing infection prevention and control (IPC) behaviours within the COVID-19 pandemic., Methods: We used a three-staged design. Firstly, we described and theorized the purported content of the SRF using the behaviour change wheel (BCW). Secondly, we used inductive thematic analysis of one-to-one interviews (n = 39) to explore contextual accounts of using the SRF. Thirdly, further deductive analysis gauged support for the intervention working as earlier anticipated., Results: It was possible to theorize the SRF using the BCW approach and visualize it within a simple logic model. Inductive thematic analyses identified the SRF's acceptability, ease of use and perceived effectiveness. However, major challenges to embedding it in routine practice during the unfolding COVID-19 crisis were reported. Notwithstanding this insight, deductive analysis showed support for the putative intervention functions 'Education', 'Persuasion' and 'Enablement'; behaviour change techniques '1.2 Problem solving', '2.6 Biofeedback', '2.7 Feedback on outcomes of behaviour' and '7.1 Prompts and cues'; and theoretical domains framework domains 'Knowledge' and 'Behavioural regulation'., Conclusions: Our process evaluation of the SRF, using the BCW approach to describe and theorize its content, provided granular support for the SRF working to change IPC behaviours as anticipated. However, our complementary inductive thematic analysis highlighted the importance of the local context in constraining its routine use. For SRFs to reach their full potential in reducing nosocomial infections, further implementation research is needed., (© 2023 The Authors. British Journal of Health Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Psychological Society.)

Preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection by modulating viral host receptors, such as angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) 1 , could represent a new chemoprophylactic approach for COVID-19 that complements vaccination 2,3 . However, the mechanisms that control the expression of ACE2 remain unclear. Here we show that the farnesoid X receptor (FXR) is a direct regulator of ACE2 transcription in several tissues affected by COVID-19, including the gastrointestinal and respiratory systems. We then use the over-the-counter compound z-guggulsterone and the off-patent drug ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) to reduce FXR signalling and downregulate ACE2 in human lung, cholangiocyte and intestinal organoids and in the corresponding tissues in mice and hamsters. We show that the UDCA-mediated downregulation of ACE2 reduces susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro, in vivo and in human lungs and livers perfused ex situ. Furthermore, we reveal that UDCA reduces the expression of ACE2 in the nasal epithelium in humans. Finally, we identify a correlation between UDCA treatment and positive clinical outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 infection using retrospective registry data, and confirm these findings in an independent validation cohort of recipients of liver transplants. In conclusion, we show that FXR has a role in controlling ACE2 expression and provide evidence that modulation of this pathway could be beneficial for reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection, paving the way for future clinical trials., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Whole genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 has occurred at an unprecedented scale, and can be exploited for characterising outbreak risks at the fine-scale needed to inform control strategies. One setting at continued risk of COVID-19 outbreaks are higher education institutions, associated with student movements at the start of term, close living conditions within residential halls, and high social contact rates. Here we analysed SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences in combination with epidemiological data to investigate a large cluster of student cases associated with University of Glasgow accommodation in autumn 2020, Scotland. We identified 519 student cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection associated with this large cluster through contact tracing data, with 30% sequencing coverage for further analysis. We estimated at least 11 independent introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into the student population, with four comprising the majority of detected cases and consistent with separate outbreaks. These four outbreaks were curtailed within a week following implementation of control measures. The impact of student infections on the local community was short-term despite an underlying increase in community infections. Our study highlights the need for context-specific information in the formation of public health policy for higher educational settings., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

E1 and E2 (E1E2), the fusion proteins of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV), are unlike that of any other virus yet described, and the detailed molecular mechanisms of HCV entry/fusion remain unknown. Hypervariable region-1 (HVR-1) of E2 is a putative intrinsically disordered protein tail. Here, we demonstrate that HVR-1 has an autoinhibitory function that suppresses the activity of E1E2 on free virions; this is dependent on its conformational entropy. Thus, HVR-1 is akin to a safety catch that prevents premature triggering of E1E2 activity. Crucially, this mechanism is turned off by host receptor interactions at the cell surface to allow entry. Mutations that reduce conformational entropy in HVR-1, or genetic deletion of HVR-1, turn off the safety catch to generate hyper-reactive HCV that exhibits enhanced virus entry but is thermally unstable and acutely sensitive to neutralising antibodies. Therefore, the HVR-1 safety catch controls the efficiency of virus entry and maintains resistance to neutralising antibodies. This discovery provides an explanation for the ability of HCV to persist in the face of continual immune assault and represents a novel regulatory mechanism that is likely to be found in other viral fusion machinery., Competing Interests: LS, MK, CL, MP, LW, TD, WL, DM, MK, GG, DB, WR, CI, AS, JG No competing interests declared, ZK Where authors are identified as personnel of the International Agency for Research on Cancer/WHO, the authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this article and they do not necessarily represent the decisions, policy or views of the International Agency for Research on Cancer/WHO, (© 2022, Stejskal, Kalemera et al.)

Breakthrough infections with SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant have been reported in doubly-vaccinated recipients and as re-infections. Studies of viral spread within hospital settings have highlighted the potential for transmission between doubly-vaccinated patients and health care workers and have highlighted the benefits of high-grade respiratory protection for health care workers. However the extent to which vaccination is preventative of viral spread in health care settings is less well studied. Here, we analysed data from 118 vaccinated health care workers (HCW) across two hospitals in India, constructing two probable transmission networks involving six HCWs in Hospital A and eight HCWs in Hospital B from epidemiological and virus genome sequence data, using a suite of computational approaches. A maximum likelihood reconstruction of transmission involving known cases of infection suggests a high probability that doubly vaccinated HCWs transmitted SARS-CoV-2 between each other and highlights potential cases of virus transmission between individuals who had received two doses of vaccine. Our findings show firstly that vaccination may reduce rates of transmission, supporting the need for ongoing infection control measures even in highly vaccinated populations, and secondly we have described a novel approach to identifying transmissions that is scalable and rapid, without the need for an infection control infrastructure., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Identifying linked cases of infection is a critical component of the public health response to viral infectious diseases. In a clinical context, there is a need to make rapid assessments of whether cases of infection have arrived independently onto a ward, or are potentially linked via direct transmission. Viral genome sequence data are of great value in making these assessments, but are often not the only form of data available. Here, we describe A2B-COVID, a method for the rapid identification of potentially linked cases of COVID-19 infection designed for clinical settings. Our method combines knowledge about infection dynamics, data describing the movements of individuals, and evolutionary analysis of genome sequences to assess whether data collected from cases of infection are consistent or inconsistent with linkage via direct transmission. A retrospective analysis of data from two wards at Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust during the first wave of the pandemic showed qualitatively different patterns of linkage between cases on designated COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 wards. The subsequent real-time application of our method to data from the second epidemic wave highlights its value for monitoring cases of infection in a clinical context., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.)

The spike protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is critical for virus infection through the engagement of the human ACE2 protein 1 and is a major antibody target. Here we show that chronic infection with SARS-CoV-2 leads to viral evolution and reduced sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies in an immunosuppressed individual treated with convalescent plasma, by generating whole-genome ultra-deep sequences for 23 time points that span 101 days and using in vitro techniques to characterize the mutations revealed by sequencing. There was little change in the overall structure of the viral population after two courses of remdesivir during the first 57 days. However, after convalescent plasma therapy, we observed large, dynamic shifts in the viral population, with the emergence of a dominant viral strain that contained a substitution (D796H) in the S2 subunit and a deletion (ΔH69/ΔV70) in the S1 N-terminal domain of the spike protein. As passively transferred serum antibodies diminished, viruses with the escape genotype were reduced in frequency, before returning during a final, unsuccessful course of convalescent plasma treatment. In vitro, the spike double mutant bearing both ΔH69/ΔV70 and D796H conferred modestly decreased sensitivity to convalescent plasma, while maintaining infectivity levels that were similar to the wild-type virus.The spike substitution mutant D796H appeared to be the main contributor to the decreased susceptibility to neutralizing antibodies, but this mutation resulted in an infectivity defect. The spike deletion mutant ΔH69/ΔV70 had a twofold higher level of infectivity than wild-type SARS-CoV-2, possibly compensating for the reduced infectivity of the D796H mutation. These data reveal strong selection on SARS-CoV-2 during convalescent plasma therapy, which is associated with the emergence of viral variants that show evidence of reduced susceptibility to neutralizing antibodies in immunosuppressed individuals.

A combination of favipiravir and zanamivir successfully cleared influenza B infection in a child who had undergone bone marrow transplant for X-linked severe combined immunodeficiency, with no recovery of T lymphocytes. Deep sequencing of viral samples illuminated the within-host dynamics of infection, demonstrating the effectiveness of favipiravir in this case., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

The transmission bottleneck is defined as the number of viral particles that transmit from one host to establish an infection in another. Genome sequence data have been used to evaluate the size of the transmission bottleneck between humans infected with the influenza virus; however, the methods used to make these estimates have some limitations. Specifically, viral allele frequencies, which form the basis of many calculations, may not fully capture a process which involves the transmission of entire viral genomes. Here, we set out a novel approach for inferring viral transmission bottlenecks; our method combines an algorithm for haplotype reconstruction with maximum likelihood methods for bottleneck inference. This approach allows for rapid calculation and performs well when applied to data from simulated transmission events; errors in the haplotype reconstruction step did not adversely affect inferences of the population bottleneck. Applied to data from a previous household transmission study of influenza A infection, we confirm the result that the majority of transmission events involve a small number of viruses, albeit with slightly looser bottlenecks being inferred, with between 1 and 13 particles transmitted in the majority of cases. While influenza A transmission involves a tight population bottleneck, the bottleneck is not so tight as to universally prevent the transmission of within-host viral diversity. IMPORTANCE Viral populations undergo a repeated cycle of within-host growth followed by transmission. Viral evolution is affected by each stage of this cycle. The number of viral particles transmitted from one host to another, known as the transmission bottleneck, is an important factor in determining how the evolutionary dynamics of the population play out, restricting the extent to which the evolved diversity of the population can be passed from one host to another. Previous study of viral sequence data has suggested that the transmission bottleneck size for influenza A transmission between human hosts is small. Reevaluating these data using a novel and improved method, we largely confirm this result, albeit that we infer a slightly higher bottleneck size in some cases, of between 1 and 13 virions. While a tight bottleneck operates in human influenza transmission, it is not extreme in nature; some diversity can be meaningfully retained between hosts., (Copyright © 2020 Ghafari et al.)

In the absence of effective antiviral therapy, HIV-1 evolves in response to the within-host environment, of which the immune system is an important aspect. During the earliest stages of infection, this process of evolution is very rapid, driven by a small number of CTL escape mutations. As the infection progresses, immune escape variants evolve under reduced magnitudes of selection, while competition between an increasing number of polymorphic alleles (i.e., clonal interference) makes it difficult to quantify the magnitude of selection acting upon specific variant alleles. To tackle this complex problem, we developed a novel multi-locus inference method to evaluate the role of selection during the chronic stage of within-host infection. We applied this method to targeted sequence data from the p24 and gp41 regions of HIV-1 collected from 34 patients with long-term untreated HIV-1 infection. We identify a broad distribution of beneficial fitness effects during infection, with a small number of variants evolving under strong selection and very many variants evolving under weaker selection. The uniquely large number of infections analysed granted a previously unparalleled statistical power to identify loci at which selection could be inferred to act with statistical confidence. Our model makes no prior assumptions about the nature of alleles under selection, such that any synonymous or non-synonymous variant may be inferred to evolve under selection. However, the majority of variants inferred with confidence to be under selection were non-synonymous in nature, and in most cases were have previously been associated with either CTL escape in p24 or neutralising antibody escape in gp41. We also identified a putative new CTL escape site (residue 286 in gag), and a region of gp41 (including residues 644, 648, 655 in env) likely to be associated with immune escape. Sites inferred to be under selection in multiple hosts have high within-host and between-host diversity although not all sites with high between-host diversity were inferred to be under selection at the within-host level. Our identification of selection at sites associated with resistance to broadly neutralising antibodies (bNAbs) highlights the need to fully understand the role of selection in untreated individuals when designing bNAb based therapies., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The relationship between DNA sequence, biochemical function, and molecular evolution is relatively well-described for protein-coding regions of genomes, but far less clear in noncoding regions, particularly, in eukaryote genomes. In part, this is because we lack a complete description of the essential noncoding elements in a eukaryote genome. To contribute to this challenge, we used saturating transposon mutagenesis to interrogate the Schizosaccharomyces pombe genome. We generated 31 million transposon insertions, a theoretical coverage of 2.4 insertions per genomic site. We applied a five-state hidden Markov model (HMM) to distinguish insertion-depleted regions from insertion biases. Both raw insertion-density and HMM-defined fitness estimates showed significant quantitative relationships to gene knockout fitness, genetic diversity, divergence, and expected functional regions based on transcription and gene annotations. Through several analyses, we conclude that transposon insertions produced fitness effects in 66-90% of the genome, including substantial portions of the noncoding regions. Based on the HMM, we estimate that 10% of the insertion depleted sites in the genome showed no signal of conservation between species and were weakly transcribed, demonstrating limitations of comparative genomics and transcriptomics to detect functional units. In this species, 3'- and 5'-untranslated regions were the most prominent insertion-depleted regions that were not represented in measures of constraint from comparative genomics. We conclude that the combination of transposon mutagenesis, evolutionary, and biochemical data can provide new insights into the relationship between genome function and molecular evolution., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.)

Mutational load is known to be of importance for the evolution of RNA viruses, the combination of a high mutation rate and large population size leading to an accumulation of deleterious mutations. However, while the effects of mutational load on global viral populations have been considered, its quantitative effects at the within-host scale of infection are less well understood. We here show that even on the rapid timescale of acute disease, mutational load has an effect on within-host viral adaptation, reducing the effective selection acting upon beneficial variants by ∼10 per cent. Furthermore, mutational load induces considerable stochasticity in the pattern of evolution, causing a more than five-fold uncertainty in the effective fitness of a transmitted beneficial variant. Our work aims to bridge the gap between classic models from population genetic theory and the biology of viral infection. In an advance on some previous models of mutational load, we replace the assumption of a constant variant fitness cost with an experimentally-derived distribution of fitness effects. Expanding previous frameworks for evolutionary simulation, we introduce the Wright-Fisher model with continuous mutation, which describes a continuum of possible modes of replication within a cell. Our results advance our understanding of adaptation in the context of strong selection and a high mutation rate. Despite viral populations having large absolute sizes, critical events in viral adaptation, including antigenic drift and the onset of drug resistance, arise through stochastic evolutionary processes.

The mechanism by which hepatitis C virus (HCV) gains entry into cells is a complex one, involving a broad range of host proteins. Entry is a critical phase of the viral lifecycle, and a potential target for therapeutic or vaccine-mediated intervention. However, the mechanics of HCV entry remain poorly understood. Here we describe a novel computational model of viral entry, encompassing the relationship between HCV and the key host receptors CD81 and SR-B1. We conduct experiments to thoroughly quantify the influence of an increase or decrease in receptor availability upon the extent of viral entry. We use these data to build and parameterise a mathematical model, which we then validate by further experiments. Our results are consistent with sequential HCV-receptor interactions, whereby initial interaction between the HCV E2 glycoprotein and SR-B1 facilitates the accumulation CD81 receptors, leading to viral entry. However, we also demonstrate that a small minority of viruses can achieve entry in the absence of SR-B1. Our model estimates the impact of the different obstacles that viruses must surmount to achieve entry; among virus particles attaching to the cell surface, around one third of viruses accumulate sufficient CD81 receptors, of which 4-8% then complete the subsequent steps to achieve productive infection. Furthermore, we make estimates of receptor stoichiometry; in excess of 10 receptors are likely to be required to achieve viral entry. Our model provides a tool to investigate the entry characteristics of HCV variants and outlines a framework for future quantitative studies of the multi-receptor dynamics of HCV entry., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Infections with helminths cause an enormous disease burden in billions of animals and plants worldwide. Large scale use of anthelmintics has driven the evolution of resistance in a number of species that infect livestock and companion animals, and there are growing concerns regarding the reduced efficacy in some human-infective helminths. Understanding the mechanisms by which resistance evolves is the focus of increasing interest; robust genetic analysis of helminths is challenging, and although many candidate genes have been proposed, the genetic basis of resistance remains poorly resolved., Results: Here, we present a genome-wide analysis of two genetic crosses between ivermectin resistant and sensitive isolates of the parasitic nematode Haemonchus contortus, an economically important gastrointestinal parasite of small ruminants and a model for anthelmintic research. Whole genome sequencing of parental populations, and key stages throughout the crosses, identified extensive genomic diversity that differentiates populations, but after backcrossing and selection, a single genomic quantitative trait locus (QTL) localised on chromosome V was revealed to be associated with ivermectin resistance. This QTL was common between the two geographically and genetically divergent resistant populations and did not include any leading candidate genes, suggestive of a previously uncharacterised mechanism and/or driver of resistance. Despite limited resolution due to low recombination in this region, population genetic analyses and novel evolutionary models supported strong selection at this QTL, driven by at least partial dominance of the resistant allele, and that large resistance-associated haplotype blocks were enriched in response to selection., Conclusions: We have described the genetic architecture and mode of ivermectin selection, revealing a major genomic locus associated with ivermectin resistance, the most conclusive evidence to date in any parasitic nematode. This study highlights a novel genome-wide approach to the analysis of a genetic cross in non-model organisms with extreme genetic diversity, and the importance of a high-quality reference genome in interpreting the signals of selection so identified.

Viruses exist within hosts at large population sizes and are subject to high rates of mutation. As such, viral populations exhibit considerable sequence diversity. A variety of summary statistics have been developed which describe, in a single number, the extent of diversity in a viral population; such measurements allow the diversities of different populations to be compared, and the effect of evolutionary forces on a population to be assessed. Here we highlight statistical artefacts underlying some common measures of sequence diversity, whereby variation in the depth of genome sequencing may substantially affect the extent of diversity measured in a viral population, making comparisons of population diversity invalid. Specifically, naive estimation of sequence entropy provides a systematically biased metric, a lower read depth being expected to produce a lower estimate of diversity. The number of polymorphic loci per kilobase of genome is more unpredictably affected by read depth, giving potentially flawed results at lower sequencing depths. We show that the nucleotide diversity statistic π provides an unbiased estimate of diversity in the sense that the expected value of the statistic is equal to the correct value of the property being measured. Our results are of importance for studies interpreting genome sequence data; we describe how diversity may be assessed in viral populations in a fair and unbiased manner.

Transmission between hosts is a critical part of the viral lifecycle. Recent studies of viral transmission have used genome sequence data to evaluate the number of particles transmitted between hosts, and the role of selection as it operates during the transmission process. However, the interpretation of sequence data describing transmission events is a challenging task. We here present a novel and comprehensive framework for using short-read sequence data to understand viral transmission events, designed for influenza virus, but adaptable to other viral species. Our approach solves multiple shortcomings of previous methods for this purpose; for example, we consider transmission as an event involving whole viruses, rather than sets of independent alleles. We demonstrate how selection during transmission and noisy sequence data may each affect naive inferences of the population bottleneck, accounting for these in our framework so as to achieve a correct inference. We identify circumstances in which selection for increased viral transmission may or may not be identified from data. Applying our method to experimental data in which transmission occurs in the presence of strong selection, we show that our framework grants a more quantitative insight into transmission events than previous approaches, inferring the bottleneck in a manner that accounts for selection, both for within-host virulence, and for inherent viral transmissibility. Our work provides new opportunities for studying transmission processes in influenza, and by extension, in other infectious diseases., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

A common challenge arising from the observation of an evolutionary system over time is to infer the magnitude of selection acting upon a specific genetic variant, or variants, within the population. The inference of selection may be confounded by the effects of genetic drift in a system, leading to the development of inference procedures to account for these effects. However, recent work has suggested that deterministic models of evolution may be effective in capturing the effects of selection even under complex models of demography, suggesting the more general application of deterministic approaches to inference. Responding to this literature, we here note a case in which a deterministic model of evolution may give highly misleading inferences, resulting from the nondeterministic properties of mutation in a finite population. We propose an alternative approach that acts to correct for this error, and which we denote the delay-deterministic model. Applying our model to a simple evolutionary system, we demonstrate its performance in quantifying the extent of selection acting within that system. We further consider the application of our model to sequence data from an evolutionary experiment. We outline scenarios in which our model may produce improved results for the inference of selection, noting that such situations can be easily identified via the use of a regular deterministic model., (Copyright © 2018 Nené et al.)

Single-cell RNA-sequencing is revolutionising our understanding of seemingly homogeneous cell populations but has not yet been widely applied to single-celled organisms. Transcriptional variation in unicellular malaria parasites from the Plasmodium genus is associated with critical phenotypes including red blood cell invasion and immune evasion, yet transcriptional variation at an individual parasite level has not been examined in depth. Here, we describe the adaptation of a single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) protocol to deconvolute transcriptional variation for more than 500 individual parasites of both rodent and human malaria comprising asexual and sexual life-cycle stages. We uncover previously hidden discrete transcriptional signatures during the pathogenic part of the life cycle, suggesting that expression over development is not as continuous as commonly thought. In transmission stages, we find novel, sex-specific roles for differential expression of contingency gene families that are usually associated with immune evasion and pathogenesis., Competing Interests: AR, AT, HB, AG, MS, CI, OB, MB, ML No competing interests declared, (© 2018, Reid et al.)

Genome sequence data are of great value in describing evolutionary processes in viral populations. However, in such studies, the extent to which data accurately describes the viral population is a matter of importance. Multiple factors may influence the accuracy of a dataset, including the quantity and nature of the sample collected, and the subsequent steps in viral processing. To investigate this phenomenon, we sequenced replica datasets spanning a range of viruses, and in which the point at which samples were split was different in each case, from a dataset in which independent samples were collected from a single patient to another in which all processing steps up to sequencing were applied to a single sample before splitting the sample and sequencing each replicate. We conclude that neither a high read depth nor a high template number in a sample guarantee the precision of a dataset. Measures of consistency calculated from within a single biological sample may also be insufficient; distortion of the composition of a population by the experimental procedure or genuine within-host diversity between samples may each affect the results. Where it is possible, data from replicate samples should be collected to validate the consistency of short-read sequence data.

Identifying the genetic determinants of phenotypes that impact disease severity is of fundamental importance for the design of new interventions against malaria. Here we present a rapid genome-wide approach capable of identifying multiple genetic drivers of medically relevant phenotypes within malaria parasites via a single experiment at single gene or allele resolution. In a proof of principle study, we found that a previously undescribed single nucleotide polymorphism in the binding domain of the erythrocyte binding like protein (EBL) conferred a dramatic change in red blood cell invasion in mutant rodent malaria parasites Plasmodium yoelii. In the same experiment, we implicated merozoite surface protein 1 (MSP1) and other polymorphic proteins, as the major targets of strain-specific immunity. Using allelic replacement, we provide functional validation of the substitution in the EBL gene controlling the growth rate in the blood stages of the parasites.

The extensive genetic heterogeneity of cancers can greatly affect therapy success due to the existence of subclonal mutations conferring resistance. However, the characterization of subclones in mixed-cell populations is computationally challenging due to the short length of sequence reads that are generated by current sequencing technologies. Here, we report cloneHD, a probabilistic algorithm for the performance of subclone reconstruction from data generated by high-throughput DNA sequencing: read depth, B-allele counts at germline heterozygous loci, and somatic mutation counts. The algorithm can exploit the added information present in correlated longitudinal or multiregion samples and takes into account correlations along genomes caused by events such as copy-number changes. We apply cloneHD to two case studies: a breast cancer sample and time-resolved samples of chronic lymphocytic leukemia, where we demonstrate that monitoring the response of a patient to therapy regimens is feasible. Our work provides new opportunities for tracking cancer development., (Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)