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Heterogeneous exposure to mosquitoes determines an individual's contribution to vector-borne pathogen transmission. Particularly for dengue virus (DENV), there is a major difficulty in quantifying human-vector contacts due to the unknown coupled effect of key heterogeneities. To test the hypothesis that the reduction of human out-of-home mobility due to dengue illness will significantly influence population-level dynamics and the structure of DENV transmission chains, we extended an existing modeling framework to include social structure, disease-driven mobility reductions, and heterogeneous transmissibility from different infectious groups. Compared to a baseline model, naïve to human pre-symptomatic infectiousness and disease-driven mobility changes, a model including both parameters predicted an increase of 37% in the probability of a DENV outbreak occurring; a model including mobility change alone predicted a 15.5% increase compared to the baseline model. At the individual level, models including mobility change led to a reduction of the importance of out-of-home onward transmission (R, the fraction of secondary cases predicted to be generated by an individual) by symptomatic individuals (up to -62%) at the expense of an increase in the relevance of their home (up to +40%). An individual's positive contribution to R could be predicted by a GAM including a non-linear interaction between an individual's biting suitability and the number of mosquitoes in their home (>10 mosquitoes and 0.6 individual attractiveness significantly increased R). We conclude that the complex fabric of social relationships and differential behavioral response to dengue illness cause the fraction of symptomatic DENV infections to concentrate transmission in specific locations, whereas asymptomatic carriers (including individuals in their pre-symptomatic period) move the virus throughout the landscape. Our findings point to the difficulty of focusing vector control interventions reactively on the home of symptomatic individuals, as this approach will fail to contain virus propagation by visitors to their house and asymptomatic carriers.

BACKGROUND:Schistosomiasis is responsible for the second highest burden of disease among neglected tropical diseases globally, with over 90 percent of cases occurring in African regions where drugs to treat the disease are only sporadically available. Additionally, human re-infection after treatment can be a problem where there are high numbers of infected snails in the environment. Recent experiments indicate that aquatic factors, including plants, nutrients, or predators, can influence snail abundance and parasite production within infected snails, both components of human risk. This study investigated how snail host abundance and release of cercariae (the free swimming stage infective to humans) varies at water access sites in an endemic region in Senegal, a setting where human schistosomiasis prevalence is among the highest globally. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We collected snail intermediate hosts at 15 random points stratified by three habitat types at 36 water access sites, and counted cercarial production by each snail after transfer to the laboratory on the same day. We found that aquatic vegetation was positively associated with per-capita cercarial release by snails, probably because macrophytes harbor periphyton resources that snails feed upon, and well-fed snails tend to produce more parasites. In contrast, the abundance of aquatic macroinvertebrate snail predators was negatively associated with per-capita cercarial release by snails, probably because of several potential sublethal effects on snails or snail infection, despite a positive association between snail predators and total snail numbers at a site, possibly due to shared habitat usage or prey tracking by the predators. Thus, complex bottom-up and top-down ecological effects in this region plausibly influence the snail shedding rate and thus, total local density of schistosome cercariae. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:Our study suggests that aquatic macrophytes and snail predators can influence per-capita cercarial production and total abundance of snails. Thus, snail control efforts might benefit by targeting specific snail habitats where parasite production is greatest. In conclusion, a better understanding of top-down and bottom-up ecological factors that regulate densities of cercarial release by snails, rather than solely snail densities or snail infection prevalence, might facilitate improved schistosomiasis control.

The risk of a zoonotic pandemic disease threatens hundreds of millions of people. Emerging infectious diseases also threaten livestock and wildlife populations around the world and can lead to devastating economic damages. China and the USA-due to their unparalleled resources, widespread engagement in activities driving emerging infectious diseases and national as well as geopolitical imperatives to contribute to global health security-play an essential role in our understanding of pandemic threats. Critical to efforts to mitigate risk is building upon existing investments in global capacity to develop training and research focused on the ecological factors driving infectious disease spillover from animals to humans. International cooperation, particularly between China and the USA, is essential to fully engage the resources and scientific strengths necessary to add this ecological emphasis to the pandemic preparedness strategy. Here, we review the world's current state of emerging infectious disease preparedness, the ecological and evolutionary knowledge needed to anticipate disease emergence, the roles that China and the USA currently play as sources and solutions to mitigating risk, and the next steps needed to better protect the global community from zoonotic disease.

Infectious diseases are emerging globally at an unprecedented rate while global food demand is projected to increase sharply by 2100. Here, we synthesize the pathways by which projected agricultural expansion and intensification will influence human infectious diseases and how human infectious diseases might likewise affect food production and distribution. Feeding 11 billion people will require substantial increases in crop and animal production that will expand agricultural use of antibiotics, water, pesticides and fertilizer, and contact rates between humans and both wild and domestic animals, all with consequences for the emergence and spread of infectious agents. Indeed, our synthesis of the literature suggests that, since 1940, agricultural drivers were associated with >25% of all - and >50% of zoonotic - infectious diseases that emerged in humans, proportions that will likely increase as agriculture expands and intensifies. We identify agricultural and disease management and policy actions, and additional research, needed to address the public health challenge posed by feeding 11 billion people.

Schistosomiasis is a snail-borne parasitic disease that ranks among the most important water-based diseases of humans in developing countries. Increased prevalence and spread of human schistosomiasis to non-endemic areas has been consistently linked with water resource management related to agricultural expansion. However, the role of agrochemical pollution in human schistosome transmission remains unexplored, despite strong evidence of agrochemicals increasing snail-borne diseases of wildlife and a projected 2- to 5-fold increase in global agrochemical use by 2050. Using a field mesocosm experiment, we show that environmentally relevant concentrations of fertilizer, a herbicide, and an insecticide, individually and as mixtures, increase densities of schistosome-infected snails by increasing the algae snails eat and decreasing densities of snail predators. Epidemiological models indicate that these agrochemical effects can increase transmission of schistosomes. Identifying agricultural practices or agrochemicals that minimize disease risk will be critical to meeting growing food demands while improving human wellbeing.

Host heterogeneity can affect parasite transmission, but determining underlying traits and incorporating them into transmission models remains challenging. Body size is easily measured and affects numerous ecological interactions, including transmission. In the snail–schistosome system, larger snails have a higher exposure to parasites but lower susceptibility to infection per parasite. We quantified the effect of size‐based heterogeneity on population‐level transmission by conducting transmission trials in differently size‐structured snail populations and competing size‐dependent transmission models. Populations with greater proportions of large snails had lower prevalence, and small snails were shielded from infection by co‐occurring large conspecifics. Furthermore, a fully dependent transmission model that incorporated body size in both exposure and susceptibility outperformed other candidate models considered. Incorporating traits such as body size, which are affected by and directly affect host ecology, into transmission models could yield insights into natural dynamics and disease mitigation in many systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do we feed the expanding human population without excessive resource depletion or environmental degradation? Recycling and recapturing nutrients could alleviate these challenges, especially if these strategies are robust to climate change. Co-cultivating rice with Azolla spp. in Asia has demonstrated high yields with reduced fertilizer inputs because Azolla fixes atmospheric nitrogen, limits nitrogen volatilization, recaptures and releases other nutrients, and suppresses weeds. While Azolla is distributed in Africa, this approach has not been widely implemented in African rice-farming. Characterizing the suitability of Azolla is critical in evaluating the potential for Azolla-rice in Africa. To do so, we synthesized 189 field and greenhouse studies from around the world that quantified temperature-dependent growth of A. pinnata and A. filiculoides and developed present and future climate suitability maps at the continental scale using mean temperatures under two Representative Concentration Pathways. Currently, most of Africa is suitable for Azolla with slight differences in regional suitability for each species. We project little change in the continent-wide suitability for both species, but anticipate a regional decline, particularly for A. filiculoides in the Sahel. Collaborating with farmers to validate these projections, evaluate the costs and benefits of Azolla-rice, and facilitate adoption of viable strategies can facilitate equitable food systems that also empower African farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activities have increased the intensity and frequency of natural stressors and created novel stressors, altering host–pathogen interactions and changing the risk of emerging infectious diseases. Despite the ubiquity of such anthropogenic impacts, predicting the directionality of outcomes has proven challenging. Here, we conduct a review and meta‐analysis to determine the primary mechanisms through which stressors affect host–pathogen interactions and to evaluate the impacts stress has on host fitness (survival and fecundity) and pathogen infectivity (prevalence and intensity). We assessed 891 effect sizes from 71 host species (representing seven taxonomic groups) and 78 parasite taxa from 98 studies. We found that infected and uninfected hosts had similar sensitivity to stressors and that responses varied according to stressor type. Specifically, limited resources compromised host fecundity and decreased pathogen intensity, while abiotic environmental stressors (e.g., temperature and salinity) decreased host survivorship and increased pathogen intensity, and pollution increased mortality but decreased pathogen prevalence. We then used our meta‐analysis results to develop susceptible–infected theoretical models to illustrate scenarios where infection rates are expected to increase or decrease in response to resource limitations or environmental stress gradients. Our results carry implications for conservation and disease emergence and reveal areas for future work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disease control tools are needed to mitigate the effect of the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) on amphibian biodiversity loss. In previous experiments, Bd metabolites (i.e., noninfectious chemicals released by Bd) have been shown to induce partial resistance to Bd when administered before live pathogen exposure and therefore have potential as an intervention strategy to curb Bd outbreaks. In the wild, however, amphibians inhabiting Bd-endemic ecosystems may have already been exposed to or infected with Bd before metabolite administration. It is therefore critical to evaluate the efficacy and safety of Bd metabolites applied postexposure to live Bd. We tested whether Bd metabolites administered postexposure would induce resistance, exacerbate infections, or have no effect. The results confirmed that Bd metabolites applied before pathogen exposure significantly reduced infection intensity, but Bd metabolites applied after pathogen exposure neither protected against nor exacerbated infections. These results reveal the importance of timing the application of Bd metabolites early in the transmission season for Bd-endemic ecosystems and emphasize that Bd metabolites prophylaxis may be a useful tool in captive reintroduction campaigns where Bd threatens the success of re-establishing endangered amphibian populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]