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1. Modeling the Age Pattern of Fertility: An Individual-Level Approach

Author

Ciganda, Daniel and Todd, Nicolas

Subjects
Statistics - Applications
Abstract

Macro-level modeling is still the dominant approach in many demographic applications because of its simplicity. Individual-level models, on the other hand, provide a more comprehensive understanding of observed patterns; however, their estimation using real data has remained a challenge. The approach we introduce in this article attempts to overcome this limitation. Using likelihood-free inference techniques, we show that it is possible to estimate the parameters of a simple but demographically interpretable individual-level model of the reproductive process from a set of aggregate fertility rates. By estimating individual-level quantities from widely available aggregate data, this approach can contribute to a better understanding of reproductive behavior and its driving mechanisms. It also allows for a more direct link between individual-level and population-level processes. We illustrate our approach using data from three natural fertility populations.

Published
2023

2. Relevance of farm-scale indicators and tools for farmers to assess sustainability of their mixed crop-ruminant livestock systems

Author

Leite, Fernanda Figueiredo Granja Dorilêo, Faverin, Claudia, Ciganda, Verónica S., Cristobal-Carballo, Omar, dos Reis, Julio Cesar, Eugène, Maguy, Fariña, Santiago, Hercher-Pasteur, Jean, Monteiro, Alyce, Pastell, Matti, Recavarren, Paulo, Romera, Alvaro, Rosanowski, Sarah, Tieri, Maria Paz, Aubry, Aurélie, Veysset, Patrick, Kenny, David, and Vibart, Ronaldo

Published
2024
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5. Measurement of head circumference: Implications for microcephaly surveillance in Zika-affected areas

Author

Harville, Emily W, Tong, Van T, Gilboa, Suzanne M, Moore, Cynthia A, Cafferata, Maria Luisa, Alger, Jackeline, Gibbons, Luz, Bustillo, Carolina, Callejas, Allison, Castillo, Mario, Funes, Jenny, Garcia, Jorge, Hernandez, Gustavo, Lopez, Wendy, Ochoa, Carlos, Rico, Fatima, Rodriguez, Heriberto, Zuniga, Concepcion, Ciganda, Alvaro, Stella, Candela, Tomasso, Giselle, and Buekens, Pierre

Published
2021

8. Maternal mortality linked to COVID-19 in Latin America: Results from a multi-country collaborative database of 447 deaths

Author

Maza-Arnedo, Fabian, Paternina-Caicedo, Angel, Sosa, Claudio G., de Mucio, Bremen, Rojas-Suarez, José, Say, Lale, Cresswell, Jenny A., de Francisco, Luis Andrés, Serruya, Suzanne, Lic, Diana Carolina Franco Pulido, Urbina, Luis, Hilaire, Erika Saint, Munayco, César V., Gil, Fabiola, Rousselin, Erick, Contreras, Leonardo, Stefan, Allan, Becerra, Alvinzy Velásquez, Degraff, Evelyn, Espada, Franco, Conde, Victor, Mery, Gustavo, Castaño, Víctor Hugo Álvarez, Umbarila, Aura Liliana Torres, Romero, Ivy Lorena Talavera, Alfonso, Yeimy Catherine Rodríguez, Lovato Silva, Raquel, Calle, Jakeline, Díaz -Viscensini, Cynthia Marlene, Frutos, Vicente Nicolas Bataglia, Laguardia, Elodia Vysokolán, Padilla, Haydee, Ciganda, Alvaro, and Colomar, Mercedes

Published
2022
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12. Using Simulated Reproductive History Data to Re-think the Relationship Between Education and Fertility

Author

Ciganda, Daniel, Lorenti, Angelo, Goos, Gerhard, Founding Editor, Hartmanis, Juris, Founding Editor, Bertino, Elisa, Editorial Board Member, Gao, Wen, Editorial Board Member, Steffen, Bernhard, Editorial Board Member, Woeginger, Gerhard, Editorial Board Member, Yung, Moti, Editorial Board Member, Weber, Ingmar, editor, Darwish, Kareem M., editor, Wagner, Claudia, editor, Zagheni, Emilio, editor, Nelson, Laura, editor, Aref, Samin, editor, and Flöck, Fabian, editor

Published
2019
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15. A multifaceted intervention to improve syphilis screening and treatment in pregnant women in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo and in Lusaka, Zambia: a cluster randomised controlled trial

Author

Althabe, Fernando, Chomba, Elwyn, Tshefu, Antoinette K, Banda, Ernest, Belizán, María, Bergel, Eduardo, Berrueta, Mabel, Bertrand, Jane, Bose, Carl, Cafferata, Maria Luisa, Carlo, Waldemar A, Ciganda, Alvaro, Donnay, France, García Elorrio, Ezequiel, Gibbons, Luz, Klein, Karen, Liljestrand, Jerker, Lusamba, Paul D, Mavila, Arlette K, Mazzoni, Agustina, Nkamba, Dalau M, Mwanakalanga, Friday H, Mwapule Tembo, Abigail, Mwenechanya, Musaku, Pyne-Mercier, Lee, Spira, Cintia, Wetshikoy, Jean D, Xiong, Xu, and Buekens, Pierre

Published
2019
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17. Prepregnancy and early pregnancy calcium supplementation among women at high risk of pre-eclampsia: a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Author

Althabe, Fernando, Belizán, José M, Bergel, Eduardo, Ciganda, Alvaro, Cormick, Gabriela, Sawchuck, Diane, Vidler, Marianne, Allie, Saadiqa, Anthony, John, Frank, Karlyn, de Greeff, Annmarie, Fawcus, Sue, Hall, David, Hofmeyr, Justus, Kovane, Mvuseleli, Kovane, Patience, Lawrie, Theresa, Mose, Simpiwe, Mshweshwe, Nolundi, Mqikela, Velisa, Njikelana, Pamela, Novikova, Natalia, Oyebajo, Adegboyega, Parker, Catherine, Phuti, Angel, Singata-Madliki, Mandisa, van Papendorp, Erika, Williams, Xoliswa, Betrán, Ana Pilar, Dannemann, Tina, Seuc, Armando, Magee, Laura, von Dadelszen, Peter, Donnay, France, Drebit, Sharla, Roberts, Jim, Guzha, Bothwell, Makaza, Emilia, Manyame, Sarah, Munjanja, Stephen, Tahuringana, Eunice, Hofmeyr, G Justus, Munjanja, Stephen P, Fawcus, Susan, Seuc, Armando H, Lawrie, Theresa A, and Roberts, James M

Published
2019
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27. A population-based, multifaceted strategy to implement antenatal corticosteroid treatment versus standard care for the reduction of neonatal mortality due to preterm birth in low-income and middle-income countries: the ACT cluster-randomised trial

Author

Althabe, Fernando, Belizán, José M, McClure, Elizabeth M, Hemingway-Foday, Jennifer, Berrueta, Mabel, Mazzoni, Agustina, Ciganda, Alvaro, Goudar, Shivaprasad S, Kodkany, Bhalachandra S, Mahantshetti, Niranjana S, Dhaded, Sangappa M, Katageri, Geetanjali M, Metgud, Mrityunjay C, Joshi, Anjali M, Bellad, Mrutyunjaya B, Honnungar, Narayan V, Derman, Richard J, Saleem, Sarah, Pasha, Omrana, Ali, Sumera, Hasnain, Farid, Goldenberg, Robert L, Esamai, Fabian, Nyongesa, Paul, Ayunga, Silas, Liechty, Edward A, Garces, Ana L, Figueroa, Lester, Hambidge, K Michael, Krebs, Nancy F, Patel, Archana, Bhandarkar, Anjali, Waikar, Manjushri, Hibberd, Patricia L, Chomba, Elwyn, Carlo, Waldemar A, Mwiche, Angel, Chiwila, Melody, Manasyan, Albert, Pineda, Sayury, Meleth, Sreelatha, Thorsten, Vanessa, Stolka, Kristen, Wallace, Dennis D, Koso-Thomas, Marion, Jobe, Alan H, and Buekens, Pierre M

Published
2015
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35. Contributors

Author

Ahire, Jayesh J., Almeida, Diana, Amedei, Amedeo, Andrade, José Carlos, Azevedo, Vasco, Barbosa, Joana Cristina, Berding, Kirsten, Brandelli, Adriano, Breyer, Gabriela Merker, Bucheli, Jorge Enrique Vazquez, Buriti, Flávia Carolina Alonso, Campani, Claudia, Champagne, Claude P., Coelho-Rocha, Nina Dias, Cryan, John F., da Silva, Miqueas Oliveira Morais, da Silva, Tales Fernando, da Silva Fernandes, Lucas Jorge, de Angelis, Maria, De Gregorio, Priscilla Romina, de Jesus, Luís Cláudio Lima, de Oliveira Carvalho, Rodrigo Dias, de Rezende Rodovalho, Vinicius, de Souza da Motta, Amanda, Depoorter, Leontien, dos Santos, Karina Maria Olbrich, dos Santos Freitas, Andria, Escobar-Puentes, Alberto A., Fernández-Ciganda, Sofía, Florowska, Anna, Florowski, Tomasz, Forkwa, Germaine Enyoh, Fraga, Martín, Freitas, Ana Cristina, Irorita Fugaban, Joanna Ivy, Gasparotto, Juciano, Giraffa, Giorgio, Gitto, Stefano, Gomes, Ana Maria, González-Córdova, Aaron F., Guslandi, Mario, Hernández-Mendoza, Adrián, Hilal, Adonis, Kaulmann, David, Kesika, Periyanaina, Kuda, Takashi, Lemay, Marie-Josée, Lizardo, Mariana V.P., Machado, Daniela, Madempudi, Ratna Sudha, Malar, Dicson Sheeja, Marra, Fabio, Miles, Mary P., Misra, Snigdha, Mohanty, Debapriya, Mohapatra, Swati, Mokashe, Narendra U., Moreira, José Cláudio F., Nader-Macías, María Elena Fátima, Neelamraju, Jayanthi, Nespolo, Cássia Regina, Olivas-Aguirre, Francisco J., Prasanth, Mani Iyer, Raymond, Yves, Reque, Priscilla Magro, Saad, Susana Marta Isay, Santiago-López, Lourdes, Silveira, Alexandre K., Sivamaruthi, Bhagavathi Sundaram, Stincone, Paolo, Tavaria, Freni K., Tencomnao, Tewin, Todorov, Svetoslav Dimitrov, Vallejo-Cordoba, Belinda, Vandenplas, Yvan, Vuillemard, Jean-Christophe, Wall-Medrano, Abraham, and Zunino, Pablo

Published
2022
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39. Penfigoide gestacional

Author

Gonzalo García, I., Biain Ciganda, A., Bustinza Beaskoetxea, Z., Martín Saez, E., Obregon Martinez, E., and Martinez-Guisasola, J.

Published
2017
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41. Early High-Titer Plasma Therapy to Prevent Severe Covid-19 in Older Adults.

Author

Libster R, Pérez Marc G, Wappner D, Coviello S, Bianchi A, Braem V, Esteban I, Caballero MT, Wood C, Berrueta M, Rondan A, Lescano G, Cruz P, Ritou Y, Fernández Viña V, Álvarez Paggi D, Esperante S, Ferreti A, Ofman G, Ciganda Á, Rodriguez R, Lantos J, Valentini R, Itcovici N, Hintze A, Oyarvide ML, Etchegaray C, Neira A, Name I, Alfonso J, López Castelo R, Caruso G, Rapelius S, Alvez F, Etchenique F, Dimase F, Alvarez D, Aranda SS, Sánchez Yanotti C, De Luca J, Jares Baglivo S, Laudanno S, Nowogrodzki F, Larrea R, Silveyra M, Leberzstein G, Debonis A, Molinos J, González M, Perez E, Kreplak N, Pastor Argüello S, Gibbons L, Althabe F, Bergel E, and Polack FP

Subjects
Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Blood Component Transfusion, COVID-19 complications, Disease Progression, Double-Blind Method, Female, Humans, Immunization, Passive, Intention to Treat Analysis, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Male, Respiratory Insufficiency etiology, Severity of Illness Index, COVID-19 Serotherapy, COVID-19 therapy, Immunoglobulin G blood, Respiratory Insufficiency prevention & control, SARS-CoV-2 immunology
Abstract

Background: Therapies to interrupt the progression of early coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) remain elusive. Among them, convalescent plasma administered to hospitalized patients has been unsuccessful, perhaps because antibodies should be administered earlier in the course of illness., Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of convalescent plasma with high IgG titers against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in older adult patients within 72 hours after the onset of mild Covid-19 symptoms. The primary end point was severe respiratory disease, defined as a respiratory rate of 30 breaths per minute or more, an oxygen saturation of less than 93% while the patient was breathing ambient air, or both. The trial was stopped early at 76% of its projected sample size because cases of Covid-19 in the trial region decreased considerably and steady enrollment of trial patients became virtually impossible., Results: A total of 160 patients underwent randomization. In the intention-to-treat population, severe respiratory disease developed in 13 of 80 patients (16%) who received convalescent plasma and 25 of 80 patients (31%) who received placebo (relative risk, 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.29 to 0.94; P = 0.03), with a relative risk reduction of 48%. A modified intention-to-treat analysis that excluded 6 patients who had a primary end-point event before infusion of convalescent plasma or placebo showed a larger effect size (relative risk, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.81). No solicited adverse events were observed., Conclusions: Early administration of high-titer convalescent plasma against SARS-CoV-2 to mildly ill infected older adults reduced the progression of Covid-19. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Fundación INFANT Pandemic Fund; Dirección de Sangre y Medicina Transfusional del Ministerio de Salud number, PAEPCC19, Plataforma de Registro Informatizado de Investigaciones en Salud number, 1421, and ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04479163.)., (Copyright © 2021 Massachusetts Medical Society.)

Published
2021
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42. Short-course Benznidazole treatment to reduce Trypanosoma cruzi parasitic load in women of reproductive age (BETTY): a non-inferiority randomized controlled trial study protocol.

Author

Cafferata ML, Toscani MA, Althabe F, Belizán JM, Bergel E, Berrueta M, Capparelli EV, Ciganda Á, Danesi E, Dumonteil E, Gibbons L, Gulayin PE, Herrera C, Momper JD, Rossi S, Shaffer JG, Schijman AG, Sosa-Estani S, Stella CB, Klein K, and Buekens P

Subjects
Argentina, Chagas Disease diagnosis, Female, Humans, Parasite Load, Postpartum Period, Pregnancy, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction, Retrospective Studies, Trypanosoma cruzi genetics, Chagas Disease drug therapy, Nitroimidazoles therapeutic use, Trypanosoma cruzi drug effects
Abstract

Background: Retrospective observational studies suggest that transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi does not occur in treated women when pregnant later in life. The level of parasitemia is a known risk factor for congenital transmission. Benznidazole (BZN) is the drug of choice for preconceptional treatment to reduce parasitic load. The fear of treatment-related side effects limits the implementation of the Argentine guideline recommending BZN 60d/300 mg (or equivalent) treatment of T. cruzi seropositive women during the postpartum period to prevent transmission in a future pregnancy. A short and low dose BZN treatment might reduce major side effects and increase compliance, but its efficacy to reduce T. cruzi parasitic load compared to the standard 60d/300 mg course is not yet established. Clinical trials testing alternative BZN courses among women of reproductive age are urgently needed., Methods and Design: We are proposing to perform a double-blinded, non-inferiority randomized controlled trial comparing a short low dose 30-day treatment with BZN 150 mg/day (30d/150 mg) vs. BZN 60d/300 mg. We will recruit not previously treated T. cruzi seropositive women with a live birth during the postpartum period in Argentina, randomize them at 6 months postpartum, and follow them up with the following specific aims: Specific aim 1: to measure the effect of BZN 30d/150 mg compared to 60d/300 mg preconceptional treatment on parasitic load measured by the frequency of positive Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) (primary outcome) and by real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR), immediately and 10 months after treatment. Specific aim 2: to measure the frequency of serious adverse events and/or any adverse event leading to treatment interruption., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov . Identifier: NCT03672487 . Registered 14 September 2018.

Published
2020
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43. Epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease in Mexico and Colombia: Analysis of health databases, mathematical modelling and a case-series study.

Author

Ciapponi A, Virgilio SA, Berrueta M, Soto NC, Ciganda Á, Rojas Illanes MF, Rubio Martinez B, Gamba J, González Salazar CA, Rocha Rodríguez JN, Scarpellini B, Bravo Perdomo AM, Machnicki G, Aldunate L, De Paula J, and Bardach A

Subjects
Adult, Aged, Colombia epidemiology, Female, Humans, Male, Mexico epidemiology, Middle Aged, Colitis, Ulcerative epidemiology, Crohn Disease epidemiology, Databases, Factual, Models, Theoretical
Abstract

Background and Aims: Ulcerative Colitis (UC) and Crohn's Disease (CD) have a major impact on quality of life and medical costs. The aim of the study was to estimate the prevalence, incidence and clinical phenotypes of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) cases in Mexico and Colombia., Methods: We analyzed official administrative and health databases, used mathematical modelling to estimate the incidence and complete prevalence, and performed a case-series of IBD patients at a referral center both in Mexico and Colombia., Results: The age-adjusted complete prevalence of UC per 100,000 inhabitants for 2015/2016 ranged from 15.65 to 71.19 in Mexico and from 27.40 to 69.97 in Colombia depending on the model considered. The prevalence of CD per 100,000 inhabitants in Mexico ranged from 15.45 to 18.08 and from 16.75 to 18.43 in Colombia. In Mexico, the age-adjusted incidence of UC per 100,000 inhabitants per year ranged from 0.90 to 2.30, and from 0.55 to 2.33 in Colombia. The incidence for CD in Mexico ranged from 0.35 to 0.66 whereas in Colombia, the age-adjusted incidence of CD ranged from 0.30 to 0.57. The case-series included 200 IBD patients from Mexico and 204 patients from Colombia. The UC/CD prevalence ratio in Mexico and Colombia was 1.50:1 and 4.5:1 respectively. In Mexico, the female/male prevalence ratio for UC was 1.50:1 and 1.28:1 for CD, while in Colombia this ratio was 0.68:1 for UC and 0.8:1 for CD. In Mexico the relapse rate for UC was 63.3% and 72.5% for CD, while those rates in Colombia were 58.2% for UC and 58.3% for CD., Conclusions: The estimated burden of disease of IBD in Mexico and Colombia is not negligible. Although these findings need to be confirmed by population-based studies, they are useful for decision-makers, practitioners and patients with this condition., Competing Interests: This work was funded by Janssen-Cilag Pharmaceutical. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials. In the synthesis of the main results of the study as well as in the development of the writing of the manuscript did not interfere any interest. In addition to this, the present study is of the epidemiological type, where the main results are related to the estimation of prevalence and incidence of the disease, so we consider that it is still difficult for them to be influenced by interests outside those of the main researchers. There are no patents, products in development or marketed products evaluated in this research to declare.

Published
2020
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