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Low-frequency sea level variations with periods longer than interannual time scales have been receiving much attention recently, with the aim of distinguishing the anthropogenic regional sea level change signal from the natural fluctuations. Based on the available sea level products, this study finds that the dominant low-frequency sea level mode in the Pacific basin has both quasi-decadal variations and a multidecadal trend reversal in the early 1990s. The dominant sea level modes on these two time scales have different tropical structures: a west-east seesaw in the tropical Pacific on the multidecadal time scale and a dipole between the western and central tropical Pacific on the quasi-decadal time scale. These two sea level modes in the Pacific basin are closely related to the ENSO-like low-frequency climate variability on respective time scales but feature distinct surface wind forcing patterns and subbasin climate processes. The multidecadal sea level mode is associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Aleutian low variations in the North Pacific and tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies toward the eastern basin, while the quasi-decadal sea level mode is accompanied by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies centered in the central basin along with the North Pacific part, which resembles the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and its oceanic expressions [i.e., the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and the Victoria mode]. The authors further conclude that the ENSO-like low-frequency variability, which has dominant influences on the Pacific sea level and climate, comprises at least two distinct modes with different spatial structures on quasi-decadal and multidecadal time scales, respectively.

The discrepancy in the observed global mean sea level budget increased significantly since 2016, but the budget discrepancy over basin‐scales is unclear. In this contribution, we investigate the sea level budget discrepancies in major basins with observations from satellite altimetry, satellite gravimetry, and Argo floats. During 2016–2020, we find substantial discrepancy of 5.72 ± 0.98 mm/yr over the North Atlantic Ocean, and the basin scale discrepancies are smaller elsewhere. Our analysis suggests that three factors, including the wet tropospheric correction (WTC) effect, deep ocean warming signal, and the contemporary ocean bottom deformation (OBD), together reduce the discrepancy by only 1 mm/yr for the North Atlantic Ocean. We decompose sea level observations into the spherical harmonic domain and observe increased discrepancy in low‐degree variations of C10 and C21 since 2016. These two coefficients result in a contrasting signal between the North and South Atlantic Ocean and contribute to the large discrepancy over the North Atlantic Ocean. We further demonstrate that the C10 and C21 discrepancies are independent of the three factors. However, we find regional salinity biases in the Argo data that reduce the discrepancy for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings add to the debate about recent sea level budget and imply that further analysis of the Argo North Atlantic data set may be useful. Plain Language Summary: Global mean sea level rise observed by satellite altimetry was well explained by measurements from satellite gravity and Argo floats for 2003–2015. However, since 2016, a substantial portion of sea level rise is not adequately explained. This unexplained portion is defined as the sea level discrepancy. To address the discrepancy for 2016–2020, we quantify the sea level discrepancy over each of the ocean basins. We find that sea level rise is well explained over the South Atlantic Ocean, South Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean, but a 5.7 mm/yr trend is not explained over the North Atlantic Ocean during 2016–2020. Further analysis reveals two underlying systemic discrepancies in sea level observations that produce a contrasting pattern over the North and South Atlantic Ocean and contribute to the sea level discrepancy over the North Atlantic Ocean. Biases the wet tropospheric correction (WTC), deep ocean warming, and contemporary ocean bottom deformation (OBD) do not appear to be responsible for the north‐south asymmetry. Our analysis points to a potential regional salinity bias in the North Atlantic Argo data set. Key Points: Basin‐scale discrepancies in the sea level budget are investigated using sea level observationsSea level discrepancy is substantially larger over the North Atlantic Ocean since 2016We identify a large halosteric contraction in the Argo North Atlantic data since 2016 which may be responsible for the sea level discrepancy [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We review the sea-level and energy budgets together from 1961, using recent and updated estimates of all terms. From 1972 to 2008, the observed sea-level rise (1.8 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from tide gauges alone and 2.1 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from a combination of tide gauges and altimeter observations) agrees well with the sum of contributions (1.8 ± 0.4 mm yr−1) in magnitude and with both having similar increases in the rate of rise during the period. The largest contributions come from ocean thermal expansion (0.8 mm yr−1) and the melting of glaciers and ice caps (0.7 mm yr−1), with Greenland and Antarctica contributing about 0.4 mm yr−1. The cryospheric contributions increase through the period (particularly in the 1990s) but the thermosteric contribution increases less rapidly. We include an improved estimate of aquifer depletion (0.3 mm yr−1), partially offsetting the retention of water in dams and giving a total terrestrial storage contribution of −0.1 mm yr−1. Ocean warming (90% of the total of the Earth's energy increase) continues through to the end of the record, in agreement with continued greenhouse gas forcing. The aerosol forcing, inferred as a residual in the atmospheric energy balance, is estimated as −0.8 ± 0.4 W m−2 for the 1980s and early 1990s. It increases in the late 1990s, as is required for consistency with little surface warming over the last decade. This increase is likely at least partially related to substantial increases in aerosol emissions from developing nations and moderate volcanic activity.