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Balancing the allocation of preschool education resources is a crucial objective within China’s preschool education reform. Our analysis focused on investigating the disparities between regions and urban-rural areas in China from 2011 to 2019, employing the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), spatial analysis, and Markov chains. The results demonstrate a gradual reduction in the gaps between regions, and a rapid decrease in urban-rural gaps. Notably, Sichuan stands out with noticeably higher urban-rural differences compared to other provinces. The dynamic evolution revealed by Markov chains illustrates a limited level of fluidity in the observed changes within preschool education resource allocation levels from 2011 to 2019, thereby indicating progression toward a higher-quality allocation process. Additionally, the steady-state formation predicted by Markov chains highlights that if the current investment strategy remains unaltered, the rural areas in middle China will become the least developed in terms of preschool education by 2025. This situation is projected to deteriorate further by 2030. Urgent attention and policy adjustments are therefore imperative to address new trends.