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Autonomous mobile app interaction has become increasingly important with growing complexity of mobile applications. Developing intelligent agents that can effectively navigate and interact with mobile apps remains a significant challenge. In this paper, we propose an Explainable Behavior Cloning LLM Agent (EBC-LLMAgent), a novel approach that combines large language models (LLMs) with behavior cloning by learning demonstrations to create intelligent and explainable agents for autonomous mobile app interaction. EBC-LLMAgent consists of three core modules: Demonstration Encoding, Code Generation, and UI Mapping, which work synergistically to capture user demonstrations, generate executable codes, and establish accurate correspondence between code and UI elements. We introduce the Behavior Cloning Chain Fusion technique to enhance the generalization capabilities of the agent. Extensive experiments on five popular mobile applications from diverse domains demonstrate the superior performance of EBC-LLMAgent, achieving high success rates in task completion, efficient generalization to unseen scenarios, and the generation of meaningful explanations., Comment: 20 pages

Time series analysis plays a critical role in numerous applications, supporting tasks such as forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. In this work, we present the time series pattern machine (TSPM), a model designed to excel in a broad range of time series tasks through powerful representation and pattern extraction capabilities. Traditional time series models often struggle to capture universal patterns, limiting their effectiveness across diverse tasks. To address this, we define multiple scales in the time domain and various resolutions in the frequency domain, employing various mixing strategies to extract intricate, task-adaptive time series patterns. Specifically, we introduce a general-purpose TSPM that processes multi-scale time series using (1) multi-resolution time imaging (MRTI), (2) time image decomposition (TID), (3) multi-scale mixing (MCM), and (4) multi-resolution mixing (MRM) to extract comprehensive temporal patterns. MRTI transforms multi-scale time series into multi-resolution time images, capturing patterns across both temporal and frequency domains. TID leverages dual-axis attention to extract seasonal and trend patterns, while MCM hierarchically aggregates these patterns across scales. MRM adaptively integrates all representations across resolutions. This method achieves state-of-the-art performance across 8 time series analytical tasks, consistently surpassing both general-purpose and task-specific models. Our work marks a promising step toward the next generation of TSPMs, paving the way for further advancements in time series analysis.

In this paper, we introduce FAMMA, an open-source benchmark for financial multilingual multimodal question answering (QA). Our benchmark aims to evaluate the abilities of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) in answering questions that require advanced financial knowledge and sophisticated reasoning. It includes 1,758 meticulously collected question-answer pairs from university textbooks and exams, spanning 8 major subfields in finance including corporate finance, asset management, and financial engineering. Some of the QA pairs are written in Chinese or French, while a majority of them are in English. These questions are presented in a mixed format combining text and heterogeneous image types, such as charts, tables, and diagrams. We evaluate a range of state-of-the-art MLLMs on our benchmark, and our analysis shows that FAMMA poses a significant challenge for these models. Even advanced systems like GPT-4o and Claude-35-Sonnet achieve only 42\% accuracy. Additionally, the open-source Qwen2-VL lags notably behind its proprietary counterparts. Lastly, we explore GPT o1-style reasoning chains to enhance the models' reasoning capabilities, which significantly improve error correction. Our FAMMA benchmark will facilitate future research to develop expert systems in financial QA. The leaderboard is available at https://famma-bench.github.io/famma/ .

Accurate workload forecasting is critical for efficient resource management in cloud computing systems, enabling effective scheduling and autoscaling. Despite recent advances with transformer-based forecasting models, challenges remain due to the non-stationary, nonlinear characteristics of workload time series and the long-term dependencies. In particular, inconsistent performance between long-term history and near-term forecasts hinders long-range predictions. This paper proposes a novel framework leveraging self-supervised multiscale representation learning to capture both long-term and near-term workload patterns. The long-term history is encoded through multiscale representations while the near-term observations are modeled via temporal flow fusion. These representations of different scales are fused using an attention mechanism and characterized with normalizing flows to handle non-Gaussian/non-linear distributions of time series. Extensive experiments on 9 benchmarks demonstrate superiority over existing methods., Comment: Proceedings of the 33rd ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (CIKM '24), October 21--25, 2024, Boise, ID, USA

Although the widespread use of AI systems in today's world is growing, many current AI systems are found vulnerable due to hidden bias and missing information, especially in the most commonly used forecasting system. In this work, we explore the robustness and explainability of AI-based forecasting systems. We provide an in-depth analysis of the underlying causality involved in the effect prediction task and further establish a causal graph based on treatment, adjustment variable, confounder, and outcome. Correspondingly, we design a causal interventional prediction system (CIPS) based on a variational autoencoder and fully conditional specification of multiple imputations. Extensive results demonstrate the superiority of our system over state-of-the-art methods and show remarkable versatility and extensibility in practice., Comment: Proceedings of the 33rd ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (CIKM '24), October 21--25, 2024, Boise, ID, USA

The rapid advancement of Text-to-Image(T2I) generative models has enabled the synthesis of high-quality images guided by textual descriptions. Despite this significant progress, these models are often susceptible in generating contents that contradict the input text, which poses a challenge to their reliability and practical deployment. To address this problem, we introduce a novel diffusion-based framework to significantly enhance the alignment of generated images with their corresponding descriptions, addressing the inconsistency between visual output and textual input. Our framework is built upon a comprehensive analysis of inconsistency phenomena, categorizing them based on their manifestation in the image. Leveraging a state-of-the-art large language module, we first extract objects and construct a knowledge graph to predict the locations of these objects in potentially generated images. We then integrate a state-of-the-art controllable image generation model with a visual text generation module to generate an image that is consistent with the original prompt, guided by the predicted object locations. Through extensive experiments on an advanced multimodal hallucination benchmark, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in accurately generating the images without the inconsistency with the original prompt. The code can be accessed via https://github.com/TruthAI-Lab/PCIG.

Large language models (LLMs) becomes the dominant paradigm for the challenging task of text-to-SQL. LLM-empowered text-to-SQL methods are typically categorized into prompting-based and tuning approaches. Compared to prompting-based methods, benchmarking fine-tuned LLMs for text-to-SQL is important yet under-explored, partially attributed to the prohibitively high computational cost. In this paper, we present DB-GPT-Hub, an open benchmark suite for LLM-empowered text-to-SQL, which primarily focuses on tuning LLMs at large scales. The proposed benchmark consists of: 1. a standardized and comprehensive evaluation of text-to-SQL tasks by fine-tuning medium to large-sized open LLMs; 2. a modularized and easy-to-extend codebase with mainstream LLMs and experimental scenarios supported, which prioritizes fine-tuning methods but can be easily extended to prompt-based setting. Our work investigates the potential gains and the performance boundaries of tuning approaches, compared to prompting approaches and explores optimal solutions tailored to specific scenarios. We hope DB-GPT-Hub, along with these findings, enables further research and broad applications that would otherwise be difficult owing to the absence of a dedicated open benchmark. The project code has been released at https://github.com/eosphoros-ai/DB-GPT-Hub.

Large language models (LLMs), such as GPT series models, have received substantial attention due to their impressive capabilities for generating and understanding human-level language. More recently, LLMs have emerged as an innovative and powerful adjunct in the medical field, transforming traditional practices and heralding a new era of enhanced healthcare services. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of Medical Large Language Models (Med-LLMs), outlining their evolution from general to the medical-specific domain (i.e, Technology and Application), as well as their transformative impact on healthcare (e.g., Trustworthiness and Safety). Concretely, starting from the fundamental history and technology of LLMs, we first delve into the progressive adaptation and refinements of general LLM models in the medical domain, especially emphasizing the advanced algorithms that boost the LLMs' performance in handling complicated medical environments, including clinical reasoning, knowledge graph, retrieval-augmented generation, human alignment, and multi-modal learning. Secondly, we explore the extensive applications of Med-LLMs across domains such as clinical decision support, report generation, and medical education, illustrating their potential to streamline healthcare services and augment patient outcomes. Finally, recognizing the imperative and responsible innovation, we discuss the challenges of ensuring fairness, accountability, privacy, and robustness in Med-LLMs applications. Finally, we conduct a concise discussion for anticipating possible future trajectories of Med-LLMs, identifying avenues for the prudent expansion of Med-LLMs. By consolidating above-mentioned insights, this review seeks to provide a comprehensive investigation of the potential strengths and limitations of Med-LLMs for professionals and researchers, ensuring a responsible landscape in the healthcare setting.

Spurious correlations in training data significantly hinder the generalization capability of machine learning models when faced with distribution shifts in real-world scenarios. To tackle the problem, numerous debias approaches have been proposed and benchmarked on datasets intentionally designed with severe biases. However, it remains to be asked: \textit{1. Do existing benchmarks really capture biases in the real world? 2. Can existing debias methods handle biases in the real world?} To answer the questions, we revisit biased distributions in existing benchmarks and real-world datasets, and propose a fine-grained framework for analyzing dataset bias by disentangling it into the magnitude and prevalence of bias. We observe and theoretically demonstrate that existing benchmarks poorly represent real-world biases. We further introduce two novel biased distributions to bridge this gap, forming a nuanced evaluation framework for real-world debiasing. Building upon these results, we evaluate existing debias methods with our evaluation framework. Results show that existing methods are incapable of handling real-world biases. Through in-depth analysis, we propose a simple yet effective approach that can be easily applied to existing debias methods, named Debias in Destruction (DiD). Empirical results demonstrate the superiority of DiD, improving the performance of existing methods on all types of biases within the proposed evaluation framework., Comment: 9 pages of main paper, 10 pages of appendix

The rapid advancement in text-to-video (T2V) generative models has enabled the synthesis of high-fidelity video content guided by textual descriptions. Despite this significant progress, these models are often susceptible to hallucination, generating contents that contradict the input text, which poses a challenge to their reliability and practical deployment. To address this critical issue, we introduce the SoraDetector, a novel unified framework designed to detect hallucinations across diverse large T2V models, including the cutting-edge Sora model. Our framework is built upon a comprehensive analysis of hallucination phenomena, categorizing them based on their manifestation in the video content. Leveraging the state-of-the-art keyframe extraction techniques and multimodal large language models, SoraDetector first evaluates the consistency between extracted video content summary and textual prompts, then constructs static and dynamic knowledge graphs (KGs) from frames to detect hallucination both in single frames and across frames. Sora Detector provides a robust and quantifiable measure of consistency, static and dynamic hallucination. In addition, we have developed the Sora Detector Agent to automate the hallucination detection process and generate a complete video quality report for each input video. Lastly, we present a novel meta-evaluation benchmark, T2VHaluBench, meticulously crafted to facilitate the evaluation of advancements in T2V hallucination detection. Through extensive experiments on videos generated by Sora and other large T2V models, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in accurately detecting hallucinations. The code and dataset can be accessed via GitHub., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2306.08302, arXiv:2403.05131 by other authors

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance in natural language tasks, but their outputs can exhibit undesirable attributes or biases. Existing methods for steering LLMs toward desired attributes often assume unbiased representations and rely solely on steering prompts. However, the representations learned from pre-training can introduce semantic biases that influence the steering process, leading to suboptimal results. We propose LLMGuardrail, a novel framework that incorporates causal analysis and adversarial learning to obtain unbiased steering representations in LLMs. LLMGuardrail systematically identifies and blocks the confounding effects of biases, enabling the extraction of unbiased steering representations. Additionally, it includes an explainable component that provides insights into the alignment between the generated output and the desired direction. Experiments demonstrate LLMGuardrail's effectiveness in steering LLMs toward desired attributes while mitigating biases. Our work contributes to the development of safe and reliable LLMs that align with desired attributes., Comment: 16 pages

Causal discovery (CD) and Large Language Models (LLMs) represent two emerging fields of study with significant implications for artificial intelligence. Despite their distinct origins, CD focuses on uncovering cause-effect relationships from data, and LLMs on processing and generating humanlike text, the convergence of these domains offers novel insights and methodologies for understanding complex systems. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of the integration of LLMs, such as GPT4, into CD tasks. We systematically review and compare existing approaches that leverage LLMs for various CD tasks and highlight their innovative use of metadata and natural language to infer causal structures. Our analysis reveals the strengths and potential of LLMs in both enhancing traditional CD methods and as an imperfect expert, alongside the challenges and limitations inherent in current practices. Furthermore, we identify gaps in the literature and propose future research directions aimed at harnessing the full potential of LLMs in causality research. To our knowledge, this is the first survey to offer a unified and detailed examination of the synergy between LLMs and CD, setting the stage for future advancements in the field.

Graph invariant learning (GIL) has been an effective approach to discovering the invariant relationships between graph data and its labels for different graph learning tasks under various distribution shifts. Many recent endeavors of GIL focus on extracting the invariant subgraph from the input graph for prediction as a regularization strategy to improve the generalization performance of graph learning. Despite their success, such methods also have various limitations in obtaining their invariant subgraphs. In this paper, we provide in-depth analyses of the drawbacks of existing works and propose corresponding principles of our invariant subgraph extraction: 1) the sparsity, to filter out the variant features, 2) the softness, for a broader solution space, and 3) the differentiability, for a soundly end-to-end optimization. To meet these principles in one shot, we leverage the Optimal Transport (OT) theory and propose a novel graph attention mechanism called Graph Sinkhorn Attention (GSINA). This novel approach serves as a powerful regularization method for GIL tasks. By GSINA, we are able to obtain meaningful, differentiable invariant subgraphs with controllable sparsity and softness. Moreover, GSINA is a general graph learning framework that could handle GIL tasks of multiple data grain levels. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets validate the superiority of our GSINA, which outperforms the state-of-the-art GIL methods by large margins on both graph-level tasks and node-level tasks. Our code is publicly available at \url{https://github.com/dingfangyu/GSINA}.

The advent of large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT, PaLM, and GPT-4 has catalyzed remarkable advances in natural language processing, demonstrating human-like language fluency and reasoning capacities. This position paper introduces the concept of Professional Agents (PAgents), an application framework harnessing LLM capabilities to create autonomous agents with controllable, specialized, interactive, and professional-level competencies. We posit that PAgents can reshape professional services through continuously developed expertise. Our proposed PAgents framework entails a tri-layered architecture for genesis, evolution, and synergy: a base tool layer, a middle agent layer, and a top synergy layer. This paper aims to spur discourse on promising real-world applications of LLMs. We argue the increasing sophistication and integration of PAgents could lead to AI systems exhibiting professional mastery over complex domains, serving critical needs, and potentially achieving artificial general intelligence., Comment: 14 pages, 1 figure

As personalized recommendation systems become vital in the age of information overload, traditional methods relying solely on historical user interactions often fail to fully capture the multifaceted nature of human interests. To enable more human-centric modeling of user preferences, this work proposes a novel explainable recommendation framework, i.e., LLMHG, synergizing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) and the structural advantages of hypergraph neural networks. By effectively profiling and interpreting the nuances of individual user interests, our framework pioneers enhancements to recommendation systems with increased explainability. We validate that explicitly accounting for the intricacies of human preferences allows our human-centric and explainable LLMHG approach to consistently outperform conventional models across diverse real-world datasets. The proposed plug-and-play enhancement framework delivers immediate gains in recommendation performance while offering a pathway to apply advanced LLMs for better capturing the complexity of human interests across machine learning applications., Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures

Since artificial intelligence has seen tremendous recent successes in many areas, it has sparked great interest in its potential for trustworthy and interpretable risk prediction. However, most models lack causal reasoning and struggle with class imbalance, leading to poor precision and recall. To address this, we propose a Task-Driven Causal Feature Distillation model (TDCFD) to transform original feature values into causal feature attributions for the specific risk prediction task. The causal feature attribution helps describe how much contribution the value of this feature can make to the risk prediction result. After the causal feature distillation, a deep neural network is applied to produce trustworthy prediction results with causal interpretability and high precision/recall. We evaluate the performance of our TDCFD method on several synthetic and real datasets, and the results demonstrate its superiority over the state-of-the-art methods regarding precision, recall, interpretability, and causality., Comment: Proceedings of the 2024 AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence

While intelligent virtual assistants like Siri, Alexa, and Google Assistant have become ubiquitous in modern life, they still face limitations in their ability to follow multi-step instructions and accomplish complex goals articulated in natural language. However, recent breakthroughs in large language models (LLMs) show promise for overcoming existing barriers by enhancing natural language processing and reasoning capabilities. Though promising, applying LLMs to create more advanced virtual assistants still faces challenges like ensuring robust performance and handling variability in real-world user commands. This paper proposes a novel LLM-based virtual assistant that can automatically perform multi-step operations within mobile apps based on high-level user requests. The system represents an advance in assistants by providing an end-to-end solution for parsing instructions, reasoning about goals, and executing actions. LLM-based Process Automation (LLMPA) has modules for decomposing instructions, generating descriptions, detecting interface elements, predicting next actions, and error checking. Experiments demonstrate the system completing complex mobile operation tasks in Alipay based on natural language instructions. This showcases how large language models can enable automated assistants to accomplish real-world tasks. The main contributions are the novel LLMPA architecture optimized for app process automation, the methodology for applying LLMs to mobile apps, and demonstrations of multi-step task completion in a real-world environment. Notably, this work represents the first real-world deployment and extensive evaluation of a large language model-based virtual assistant in a widely used mobile application with an enormous user base numbering in the hundreds of millions.

Large language models (LLMs) show promise for natural language tasks but struggle when applied directly to complex domains like finance. LLMs have difficulty reasoning about and integrating all relevant information. We propose a data-centric approach to enable LLMs to better handle financial tasks. Our key insight is that rather than overloading the LLM with everything at once, it is more effective to preprocess and pre-understand the data. We create a financial LLM (FLLM) using multitask prompt-based finetuning to achieve data pre-processing and pre-understanding. However, labeled data is scarce for each task. To overcome manual annotation costs, we employ abductive augmentation reasoning (AAR) to automatically generate training data by modifying the pseudo labels from FLLM's own outputs. Experiments show our data-centric FLLM with AAR substantially outperforms baseline financial LLMs designed for raw text, achieving state-of-the-art on financial analysis and interpretation tasks. We also open source a new benchmark for financial analysis and interpretation. Our methodology provides a promising path to unlock LLMs' potential for complex real-world domains.

Neural Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) are the prevalent paradigm for modeling continuous-time event sequences, such as user activities on the web and financial transactions. In real-world applications, event data is typically received in a \emph{streaming} manner, where the distribution of patterns may shift over time. Additionally, \emph{privacy and memory constraints} are commonly observed in practical scenarios, further compounding the challenges. Therefore, the continuous monitoring of a TPP to learn the streaming event sequence is an important yet under-explored problem. Our work paper addresses this challenge by adopting Continual Learning (CL), which makes the model capable of continuously learning a sequence of tasks without catastrophic forgetting under realistic constraints. Correspondingly, we propose a simple yet effective framework, PromptTPP\footnote{Our code is available at {\small \url{ https://github.com/yanyanSann/PromptTPP}}}, by integrating the base TPP with a continuous-time retrieval prompt pool. The prompts, small learnable parameters, are stored in a memory space and jointly optimized with the base TPP, ensuring that the model learns event streams sequentially without buffering past examples or task-specific attributes. We present a novel and realistic experimental setup for modeling event streams, where PromptTPP consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance across three real user behavior datasets., Comment: NeurIPS 2023 camera ready version

Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems and has been extensively studied. Unlike natural language process (NLP) and computer vision (CV), where a single large model can tackle multiple tasks, models for time series forecasting are often specialized, necessitating distinct designs for different tasks and applications. While pre-trained foundation models have made impressive strides in NLP and CV, their development in time series domains has been constrained by data sparsity. Recent studies have revealed that large language models (LLMs) possess robust pattern recognition and reasoning abilities over complex sequences of tokens. However, the challenge remains in effectively aligning the modalities of time series data and natural language to leverage these capabilities. In this work, we present Time-LLM, a reprogramming framework to repurpose LLMs for general time series forecasting with the backbone language models kept intact. We begin by reprogramming the input time series with text prototypes before feeding it into the frozen LLM to align the two modalities. To augment the LLM's ability to reason with time series data, we propose Prompt-as-Prefix (PaP), which enriches the input context and directs the transformation of reprogrammed input patches. The transformed time series patches from the LLM are finally projected to obtain the forecasts. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that Time-LLM is a powerful time series learner that outperforms state-of-the-art, specialized forecasting models. Moreover, Time-LLM excels in both few-shot and zero-shot learning scenarios., Comment: Accepted by the 12th International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR 2024)

Time-Series Forecasting based on Cumulative Data (TSFCD) is a crucial problem in decision-making across various industrial scenarios. However, existing time-series forecasting methods often overlook two important characteristics of cumulative data, namely monotonicity and irregularity, which limit their practical applicability. To address this limitation, we propose a principled approach called Monotonic neural Ordinary Differential Equation (MODE) within the framework of neural ordinary differential equations. By leveraging MODE, we are able to effectively capture and represent the monotonicity and irregularity in practical cumulative data. Through extensive experiments conducted in a bonus allocation scenario, we demonstrate that MODE outperforms state-of-the-art methods, showcasing its ability to handle both monotonicity and irregularity in cumulative data and delivering superior forecasting performance., Comment: Accepted as CIKM'23 Applied Research Track

Asynchronous time series, also known as temporal event sequences, are the basis of many applications throughout different industries. Temporal point processes(TPPs) are the standard method for modeling such data. Existing TPP models have focused on parameterizing the conditional distribution of future events instead of explicitly modeling event interactions, imposing challenges for event predictions. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that leverages Neural Relational Inference (NRI) to learn a relation graph that infers interactions while simultaneously learning the dynamics patterns from observational data. Our approach, the Contrastive Relational Inference-based Hawkes Process (CRIHP), reasons about event interactions under a variational inference framework. It utilizes intensity-based learning to search for prototype paths to contrast relationship constraints. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in capturing event interactions for event sequence modeling tasks. Code will be integrated into the EasyTPP framework., Comment: ICDM 2023 AI4TS Workshop

As AI systems have obtained significant performance to be deployed widely in our daily live and human society, people both enjoy the benefits brought by these technologies and suffer many social issues induced by these systems. To make AI systems good enough and trustworthy, plenty of researches have been done to build guidelines for trustworthy AI systems. Machine learning is one of the most important parts for AI systems and representation learning is the fundamental technology in machine learning. How to make the representation learning trustworthy in real-world application, e.g., cross domain scenarios, is very valuable and necessary for both machine learning and AI system fields. Inspired by the concepts in trustworthy AI, we proposed the first trustworthy representation learning across domains framework which includes four concepts, i.e, robustness, privacy, fairness, and explainability, to give a comprehensive literature review on this research direction. Specifically, we first introduce the details of the proposed trustworthy framework for representation learning across domains. Second, we provide basic notions and comprehensively summarize existing methods for the trustworthy framework from four concepts. Finally, we conclude this survey with insights and discussions on future research directions., Comment: 38 pages, 15 figures

Recent advancements in recommendation systems have shifted towards more comprehensive and personalized recommendations by utilizing large language models (LLM). However, effectively integrating LLM's commonsense knowledge and reasoning abilities into recommendation systems remains a challenging problem. In this paper, we propose RecSysLLM, a novel pre-trained recommendation model based on LLMs. RecSysLLM retains LLM reasoning and knowledge while integrating recommendation domain knowledge through unique designs of data, training, and inference. This allows RecSysLLM to leverage LLMs' capabilities for recommendation tasks in an efficient, unified framework. We demonstrate the effectiveness of RecSysLLM on benchmarks and real-world scenarios. RecSysLLM provides a promising approach to developing unified recommendation systems by fully exploiting the power of pre-trained language models., Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures

Recommendation systems aim to provide users with relevant suggestions, but often lack interpretability and fail to capture higher-level semantic relationships between user behaviors and profiles. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that leverages large language models (LLMs) to construct personalized reasoning graphs. These graphs link a user's profile and behavioral sequences through causal and logical inferences, representing the user's interests in an interpretable way. Our approach, LLM reasoning graphs (LLMRG), has four components: chained graph reasoning, divergent extension, self-verification and scoring, and knowledge base self-improvement. The resulting reasoning graph is encoded using graph neural networks, which serves as additional input to improve conventional recommender systems, without requiring extra user or item information. Our approach demonstrates how LLMs can enable more logical and interpretable recommender systems through personalized reasoning graphs. LLMRG allows recommendations to benefit from both engineered recommendation systems and LLM-derived reasoning graphs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of LLMRG on benchmarks and real-world scenarios in enhancing base recommendation models., Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures

Predictive Autoscaling is used to forecast the workloads of servers and prepare the resources in advance to ensure service level objectives (SLOs) in dynamic cloud environments. However, in practice, its prediction task often suffers from performance degradation under abnormal traffics caused by external events (such as sales promotional activities and applications re-configurations), for which a common solution is to re-train the model with data of a long historical period, but at the expense of high computational and storage costs. To better address this problem, we propose a replay-based continual learning method, i.e., Density-based Memory Selection and Hint-based Network Learning Model (DMSHM), using only a small part of the historical log to achieve accurate predictions. First, we discover the phenomenon of sample overlap when applying replay-based continual learning in prediction tasks. In order to surmount this challenge and effectively integrate new sample distribution, we propose a density-based sample selection strategy that utilizes kernel density estimation to calculate sample density as a reference to compute sample weight, and employs weight sampling to construct a new memory set. Then we implement hint-based network learning based on hint representation to optimize the parameters. Finally, we conduct experiments on public and industrial datasets to demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art continual learning methods in terms of memory capacity and prediction accuracy. Furthermore, we demonstrate remarkable practicability of DMSHM in real industrial applications.

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts., Comment: ICLR 2024 camera ready

Various probabilistic time series forecasting models have sprung up and shown remarkably good performance. However, the choice of model highly relies on the characteristics of the input time series and the fixed distribution that the model is based on. Due to the fact that the probability distributions cannot be averaged over different models straightforwardly, the current time series model ensemble methods cannot be directly applied to improve the robustness and accuracy of forecasting. To address this issue, we propose pTSE, a multi-model distribution ensemble method for probabilistic forecasting based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM). pTSE only takes off-the-shelf outputs from member models without requiring further information about each model. Besides, we provide a complete theoretical analysis of pTSE to prove that the empirical distribution of time series subject to an HMM will converge to the stationary distribution almost surely. Experiments on benchmarks show the superiority of pTSE overall member models and competitive ensemble methods., Comment: The 32nd International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI 2023)

The era of big data has witnessed an increasing availability of observational data from mobile and social networking, online advertising, web mining, healthcare, education, public policy, marketing campaigns, and so on, which facilitates the development of causal effect estimation. Although significant advances have been made to overcome the challenges in the academic area, such as missing counterfactual outcomes and selection bias, they only focus on source-specific and stationary observational data, which is unrealistic in most industrial applications. In this paper, we investigate a new industrial problem of causal effect estimation from incrementally available observational data and present three new evaluation criteria accordingly, including extensibility, adaptability, and accessibility. We propose a Continual Causal Effect Representation Learning method for estimating causal effects with observational data, which are incrementally available from non-stationary data distributions. Instead of having access to all seen observational data, our method only stores a limited subset of feature representations learned from previous data. Combining selective and balanced representation learning, feature representation distillation, and feature transformation, our method achieves the continual causal effect estimation for new data without compromising the estimation capability for original data. Extensive experiments demonstrate the significance of continual causal effect estimation and the effectiveness of our method., Comment: The 39th IEEE International Conference on Data Engineering (ICDE 2023). arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2301.01026

Tackling unfairness in graph learning models is a challenging task, as the unfairness issues on graphs involve both attributes and topological structures. Existing work on fair graph learning simply assumes that attributes of all nodes are available for model training and then makes fair predictions. In practice, however, the attributes of some nodes might not be accessible due to missing data or privacy concerns, which makes fair graph learning even more challenging. In this paper, we propose FairAC, a fair attribute completion method, to complement missing information and learn fair node embeddings for graphs with missing attributes. FairAC adopts an attention mechanism to deal with the attribute missing problem and meanwhile, it mitigates two types of unfairness, i.e., feature unfairness from attributes and topological unfairness due to attribute completion. FairAC can work on various types of homogeneous graphs and generate fair embeddings for them and thus can be applied to most downstream tasks to improve their fairness performance. To our best knowledge, FairAC is the first method that jointly addresses the graph attribution completion and graph unfairness problems. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show that our method achieves better fairness performance with less sacrifice in accuracy, compared with the state-of-the-art methods of fair graph learning. Code is available at: https://github.com/donglgcn/FairAC.

Causal inference has numerous real-world applications in many domains, such as health care, marketing, political science, and online advertising. Treatment effect estimation, a fundamental problem in causal inference, has been extensively studied in statistics for decades. However, traditional treatment effect estimation methods may not well handle large-scale and high-dimensional heterogeneous data. In recent years, an emerging research direction has attracted increasing attention in the broad artificial intelligence field, which combines the advantages of traditional treatment effect estimation approaches (e.g., propensity score, matching, and reweighing) and advanced machine learning approaches (e.g., representation learning, adversarial learning, and graph neural networks). Although the advanced machine learning approaches have shown extraordinary performance in treatment effect estimation, it also comes with a lot of new topics and new research questions. In view of the latest research efforts in the causal inference field, we provide a comprehensive discussion of challenges and opportunities for the three core components of the treatment effect estimation task, i.e., treatment, covariates, and outcome. In addition, we showcase the promising research directions of this topic from multiple perspectives.

A further understanding of cause and effect within observational data is critical across many domains, such as economics, health care, public policy, web mining, online advertising, and marketing campaigns. Although significant advances have been made to overcome the challenges in causal effect estimation with observational data, such as missing counterfactual outcomes and selection bias between treatment and control groups, the existing methods mainly focus on source-specific and stationary observational data. Such learning strategies assume that all observational data are already available during the training phase and from only one source. This practical concern of accessibility is ubiquitous in various academic and industrial applications. That's what it boiled down to: in the era of big data, we face new challenges in causal inference with observational data, i.e., the extensibility for incrementally available observational data, the adaptability for extra domain adaptation problem except for the imbalance between treatment and control groups, and the accessibility for an enormous amount of data. In this position paper, we formally define the problem of continual treatment effect estimation, describe its research challenges, and then present possible solutions to this problem. Moreover, we will discuss future research directions on this topic., Comment: The 37th AAAI conference on artificial intelligence Continual Causality Bridge Program

Although the Conditional Variational AutoEncoder (CVAE) model can generate more diversified responses than the traditional Seq2Seq model, the responses often have low relevance with the input words or are illogical with the question. A causal analysis is carried out to study the reasons behind, and a methodology of searching for the mediators and mitigating the confounding bias in dialogues is provided. Specifically, we propose to predict the mediators to preserve relevant information and auto-regressively incorporate the mediators into generating process. Besides, a dynamic topic graph guided conditional variational autoencoder (TGG-CVAE) model is utilized to complement the semantic space and reduce the confounding bias in responses. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed model is able to generate both relevant and informative responses, and outperforms the state-of-the-art in terms of automatic metrics and human evaluations., Comment: Accepted at COLING 2022

Marketing campaigns are a set of strategic activities that can promote a business's goal. The effect prediction for marketing campaigns in a real industrial scenario is very complex and challenging due to the fact that prior knowledge is often learned from observation data, without any intervention for the marketing campaign. Furthermore, each subject is always under the interference of several marketing campaigns simultaneously. Therefore, we cannot easily parse and evaluate the effect of a single marketing campaign. To the best of our knowledge, there are currently no effective methodologies to solve such a problem, i.e., modeling an individual-level prediction task based on a hierarchical structure with multiple intertwined events. In this paper, we provide an in-depth analysis of the underlying parse tree-like structure involved in the effect prediction task and we further establish a Hierarchical Capsule Prediction Network (HapNet) for predicting the effects of marketing campaigns. Extensive results based on both the synthetic data and real data demonstrate the superiority of our model over the state-of-the-art methods and show remarkable practicability in real industrial applications., Comment: Proceedings of the 31st ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (CIKM '22)

Estimating treatment effects from observational data provides insights about causality guiding many real-world applications such as different clinical study designs, which are the formulations of trials, experiments, and observational studies in medical, clinical, and other types of research. In this paper, we describe causal inference for application in a novel clinical design called basket trial that tests how well a new drug works in patients who have different types of cancer that all have the same mutation. We propose a multi-task adversarial learning (MTAL) method, which incorporates feature selection multi-task representation learning and adversarial learning to estimate potential outcomes across different tumor types for patients sharing the same genetic mutation but having different tumor types. In our paper, the basket trial is employed as an intuitive example to present this new causal inference setting. This new causal inference setting includes, but is not limited to basket trials. This setting has the same challenges as the traditional causal inference problem, i.e., missing counterfactual outcomes under different subgroups and treatment selection bias due to confounders. We present the practical advantages of our MTAL method for the analysis of synthetic basket trial data and evaluate the proposed estimator on two benchmarks, IHDP and News. The results demonstrate the superiority of our MTAL method over the competing state-of-the-art methods., Comment: Proceedings of Machine Learning Research (PMLR); Conference on Health, Inference, and Learning (CHIL) 2022

The foremost challenge to causal inference with real-world data is to handle the imbalance in the covariates with respect to different treatment options, caused by treatment selection bias. To address this issue, recent literature has explored domain-invariant representation learning based on different domain divergence metrics (e.g., Wasserstein distance, maximum mean discrepancy, position-dependent metric, and domain overlap). In this paper, we reveal the weaknesses of these strategies, i.e., they lead to the loss of predictive information when enforcing the domain invariance; and the treatment effect estimation performance is unstable, which heavily relies on the characteristics of the domain distributions and the choice of domain divergence metrics. Motivated by information theory, we propose to learn the Infomax and Domain-Independent Representations to solve the above puzzles. Our method utilizes the mutual information between the global feature representations and individual feature representations, and the mutual information between feature representations and treatment assignment predictions, in order to maximally capture the common predictive information for both treatment and control groups. Moreover, our method filters out the influence of instrumental and irrelevant variables, and thus it effectively increases the predictive ability of potential outcomes. Experimental results on both the synthetic and real-world datasets show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on causal effect inference. Moreover, our method exhibits reliable prediction performances when facing data with different characteristics of data distributions, complicated variable types, and severe covariate imbalance., Comment: SIAM International Conference on Data Mining (SDM22)

Treatment effect estimation from observational data is a critical research topic across many domains. The foremost challenge in treatment effect estimation is how to capture hidden confounders. Recently, the growing availability of networked observational data offers a new opportunity to deal with the issue of hidden confounders. Unlike networked data in traditional graph learning tasks, such as node classification and link detection, the networked data under the causal inference problem has its particularity, i.e., imbalanced network structure. In this paper, we propose a Graph Infomax Adversarial Learning (GIAL) model for treatment effect estimation, which makes full use of the network structure to capture more information by recognizing the imbalance in network structure. We evaluate the performance of our GIAL model on two benchmark datasets, and the results demonstrate superiority over the state-of-the-art methods., Comment: Proceedings of the 27th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD '21), August 14--18, 2021, Virtual Event, Singapore

The dramatically growing availability of observational data is being witnessed in various domains of science and technology, which facilitates the study of causal inference. However, estimating treatment effects from observational data is faced with two major challenges, missing counterfactual outcomes and treatment selection bias. Matching methods are among the most widely used and fundamental approaches to estimating treatment effects, but existing matching methods have poor performance when facing data with high dimensional and complicated variables. We propose a feature selection representation matching (FSRM) method based on deep representation learning and matching, which maps the original covariate space into a selective, nonlinear, and balanced representation space, and then conducts matching in the learned representation space. FSRM adopts deep feature selection to minimize the influence of irrelevant variables for estimating treatment effects and incorporates a regularizer based on the Wasserstein distance to learn balanced representations. We evaluate the performance of our FSRM method on three datasets, and the results demonstrate superiority over the state-of-the-art methods., Comment: Proceedings of the 29th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (CIKM '20)

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.