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Background Pneumonia due to typical bacterial, atypical bacterial and viral pathogens can be difficult to clinically differentiate. Host response-based diagnostics are emerging as a complementary diagnostic strategy to pathogen detection.Methods We used murine models of typical bacterial, atypical bacterial and viral pneumonia to develop diagnostic signatures and understand the host’s response to these types of infections. Mice were intranasally inoculated with Streptococcus pneumoniae, Mycoplasma pneumoniae, influenza or saline as a control. Peripheral blood gene expression analysis was performed at multiple time points. Differentially expressed genes were used to perform gene set enrichment analysis and generate diagnostic signatures. These murine-derived signatures were externally validated in silico using human gene expression data. The response to S. pneumoniae was the most rapid and robust.Results Mice infected with M. pneumoniae had a delayed response more similar to influenza-infected animals. Diagnostic signatures for the three types of infection had 0.94–1.00 area under the receiver operator curve (auROC). Validation in five human gene expression datasets revealed auROC of 0.82–0.96.Discussion This study identified discrete host responses to typical bacterial, atypical bacterial and viral aetiologies of pneumonia in mice. These signatures validated well in humans, highlighting the conserved nature of the host response to these pathogen classes.

Objective We studied the safety and efficacy of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) as pre-exposure prophylaxis for COVID-19 in healthcare workers (HCWs), using a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs).Data sources PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched to identify randomised trials studying HCQ.Study selection Ten RCTs were identified (n=5079 participants).Data extraction and synthesis The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were used in this systematic review and meta-analysis between HCQ and placebo using a Bayesian random-effects model. A pre-hoc statistical analysis plan was written.Main outcomes The primary efficacy outcome was PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and the primary safety outcome was incidence of adverse events. The secondary outcome included clinically suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection.Results Compared with placebo, HCWs randomised to HCQ had no significant difference in PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR 0.92, 95% credible interval (CI): 0.58, 1.37) or clinically suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR 0.78, 95% CI: 0.57, 1.10), but significant difference in adverse events (OR 1.35, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.73).Conclusions and relevance Our meta-analysis of 10 RCTs investigating the safety and efficacy of HCQ as pre-exposure prophylaxis in HCWs found that compared with placebo, HCQ does not significantly reduce the risk of confirmed or clinically suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection, while HCQ significantly increases adverse events.PROSPERO registration number CRD42021285093.

Background Few models exist that incorporate measures from an array of individual characteristics to predict the risk of COVID-19 infection in the general population. The aim was to develop a prognostic model for COVID-19 using readily obtainable clinical variables. Methods Over 74 weeks surveys were periodically administered to a cohort of 1381 participants previously uninfected with COVID-19 (June 2020 to December 2021). Candidate predictors of incident infection during follow-up included demographics, living situation, financial status, physical activity, health conditions, flu vaccination history, COVID-19 vaccine intention, work/employment status, and use of COVID-19 mitigation behaviors. The final logistic regression model was created using a penalized regression method known as the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. Model performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration. Internal validation was performed via bootstrapping, and results were adjusted for overoptimism. Results Of the 1381 participants, 154 (11.2%) had an incident COVID-19 infection during the follow-up period. The final model included six variables: health insurance, race, household size, and the frequency of practicing three mitigation behavior (working at home, avoiding high-risk situations, and using facemasks). The c-statistic of the final model was 0.631 (0.617 after bootstrapped optimism-correction). A calibration plot suggested that with this sample the model shows modest concordance with incident infection at the lowest risk. Conclusion This prognostic model can help identify which community-dwelling older adults are at the highest risk for incident COVID-19 infection and may inform medical provider counseling of their patients about the risk of incident COVID-19 infection.

Objectives We evaluated the performance of commonly used sepsis screening tools across prospective sepsis cohorts in the USA, Cambodia and Ghana.Design Prospective cohort studies.Setting and participants From 2014 to 2021, participants with two or more SIRS (Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome) criteria and suspected infection were enrolled in emergency departments and medical wards at hospitals in Cambodia and Ghana and hospitalised participants with suspected infection were enrolled in the USA. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed, and Harrell’s C-statistic calculated to determine 28-day mortality prediction performance of the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score ≥2, SIRS score ≥3, National Early Warning Score (NEWS) ≥5, Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) ≥5 or Universal Vital Assessment (UVA) score ≥2. Screening tools were compared with baseline risk (age and sex) with the Wald test.Results The cohorts included 567 participants (42.9% women) including 187 participants from Kumasi, Ghana, 200 participants from Takeo, Cambodia and 180 participants from Durham, North Carolina in the USA. The pooled mortality was 16.4% at 28 days. The mortality prediction accuracy increased from baseline risk with the MEWS (C-statistic: 0.63, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.68; p=0.002), NEWS (C-statistic: 0.68; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.73; p

BackgroundMitigation behaviors reduce the incidence of COVID-19 infection. Determining characteristics of groups defined by mitigation behaviors compliance may be useful to inform targeted public health policies and interventions. This study aimed to identify groups of individuals according to self-reported compliance with COVID-19 mitigation behaviors, define compliance class characteristics, and explore associations between compliance classes and important study and public health outcomes.Methods and findingsWe studied 1,410 participants in the Cabarrus County COVID-19 Prevalence and Immunity longitudinal cohort study (June 2020 to December 2021) who were asked 10 questions regarding compliance with recommended COVID-19 mitigation behaviors. By Latent Class Analysis, 1,381 participants were categorized into 3 classes (most [49.4%], moderately [45.0%], and least [5.6%] compliant). Compared with the most compliant class, the least and moderately compliant classes were younger (mean = 61.9 v. 59.0 v. 53.8 years), had fewer medical conditions per individual (1.37 v. 1.08 v. 0.77), and differed in Hispanic ethnicity (6.2% v. 2.8% v. 9.1%) and COVID-19 vaccine intention (65.8% v. 59.8% v. 35.1%). Compared to the most compliant class, the least compliant class had fewer women (54.6% v. 76.3%), fewer insured individuals (92.2% v. 97.4%), and more withdrew from study participation early (28.6% v. 16.0%). Relative to the most compliant class, the least compliant class had a higher likelihood of COVID-19 infection (OR = 2.08 [95% CI 1.13, 3.85]), lower rate of COVID-19 vaccination (72.6% v. 95.1%), and longer time to 50% COVID-19 vaccination following eligibility (8-9 vs 16 days).ConclusionsClasses defined by mitigation behaviors compliance had distinct characteristics, including age, sex, medical history, and ethnicity, and were associated with important study and public health outcomes. Targeted public health policies and interventions according to the compliance group characteristics may be of value in current and future pandemic responses to increase compliance.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010091.].

BackgroundHealthcare systems in dengue-endemic countries are often overburdened due to the high number of patients hospitalized according to dengue management guidelines. We systematically evaluated clinical outcomes in a large cohort of patients hospitalized with acute dengue to support triaging of patients to ambulatory versus inpatient management in the future.Methods/principal findingsFrom June 2017- December 2018, we conducted surveillance among children and adults with fever within the prior 7 days who were hospitalized at the largest tertiary-care (1,800 bed) hospital in the Southern Province, Sri Lanka. Patients who developed platelet count ≤100,000/μL (threshold for hospital admission in Sri Lanka) and who met at least two clinical criteria consistent with dengue were eligible for enrollment. We confirmed acute dengue by testing sera collected at enrollment for dengue NS1 antigen or IgM antibodies. We defined primary outcomes as per the 1997 and 2009 World Health Organization (WHO) classification criteria: dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF; WHO 1997), dengue shock syndrome (DSS; WHO 1997), and severe dengue (WHO 2009). Overall, 1064 patients were confirmed as having acute dengue: 318 (17.4%) by NS1 rapid antigen testing and 746 (40.7%) by IgM antibody testing. Of these 1064 patients, 994 (93.4%) were adults ≥18 years and 704 (66.2%) were male. The majority (56, 80%) of children and more than half of adults (544, 54.7%) developed DHF during hospitalization, while 6 (8.6%) children and 22 (2.2%) adults developed DSS. Overall, 10 (14.3%) children and 113 (11.4%) adults developed severe dengue. A total of 2 (0.2%) patients died during hospitalization.ConclusionsOne-half of patients hospitalized with acute dengue progressed to develop DHF and a very small number developed DSS or severe dengue. Developing an algorithm for triaging patients to ambulatory versus inpatient management should be the future goal to optimize utilization of healthcare resources in dengue-endemic countries.

ObjectivesCompare three host response strategies to distinguish bacterial and viral etiologies of acute respiratory illness (ARI).MethodsIn this observational cohort study, procalcitonin, a 3-protein panel (CRP, IP-10, TRAIL), and a host gene expression mRNA panel were measured in 286 subjects with ARI from four emergency departments. Multinomial logistic regression and leave-one-out cross validation were used to evaluate the protein and mRNA tests.ResultsThe mRNA panel performed better than alternative strategies to identify bacterial infection: AUC 0.93 vs. 0.83 for the protein panel and 0.84 for procalcitonin (PConclusionsA gene expression signature was the most accurate host response strategy for classifying subjects with bacterial, viral, or non-infectious ARI.

Objectives To determine aetiology of illness among children and adults presenting during outbreak of severe respiratory illness in Southern Province, Sri Lanka, in 2018.Design Prospective, cross-sectional study.Setting 1600-bed, public, tertiary care hospital in Southern Province, Sri Lanka.Participants 410 consecutive patients, including 371 children and 39 adults, who were admitted with suspected viral pneumonia (passive surveillance) or who met case definition for acute respiratory illness (active surveillance) in May to June 2018.Results We found that cocirculation of influenza A (22.6% of cases), respiratory syncytial virus (27.8%) and adenovirus (AdV) (30.7%; type B3) was responsible for the outbreak. Mortality was noted in 4.5% of paediatric cases identified during active surveillance. Virus type and viral coinfection were not significantly associated with mortality.Conclusions This is the first report of intense cocirculation of multiple respiratory viruses as a cause of an outbreak of severe acute respiratory illness in Sri Lanka, and the first time that AdV has been documented as a cause of a respiratory outbreak in the country. Our results emphasise the need for continued vigilance in surveying for known and emerging respiratory viruses in the tropics.

BACKGROUND:The heart is a metabolically active organ, and plasma acylcarnitines are associated with long-term risk for myocardial infarction. We hypothesized that myocardial ischemia from cardiac stress testing will produce dynamic changes in acylcarnitine and amino acid levels compared to levels seen in matched control patients with normal stress tests. METHODS:We analyzed targeted metabolomic profiles in a pilot study of 20 case patients with inducible ischemia on stress testing from an existing prospectively collected repository of 357 consecutive patients presenting with symptoms of Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) in an Emergency Department (ED) observation unit between November 2012 and September 2014. We selected 20 controls matched on age, sex, and body-mass index (BMI). A peripheral blood sample was drawn

BACKGROUND:Dengue is a leading cause of fever and mimics other acute febrile illnesses (AFI). In 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) revised criteria for clinical diagnosis of dengue. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:The new WHO 2009 classification of dengue divides suspected cases into three categories: dengue without warning signs, dengue with warning signs and severe dengue. We evaluated the WHO 2009 classification vs physicians' subjective clinical diagnosis (gestalt clinical impression) in a large cohort of patients presenting to a tertiary care center in southern Sri Lanka hospitalized with acute febrile illness. We confirmed acute dengue in 388 patients (305 adults ≥ 18 years and 83 children), including 103 primary and 245 secondary cases, of 976 patients prospectively enrolled with AFI. At presentation, both adults and children with acute dengue were more likely than those with other AFI to have leukopenia and thrombocytopenia. Additionally, adults were more likely than those with other AFI to have joint pain, higher temperatures, and absence of crackles on examination whereas children with dengue were more likely than others to have sore throat, fatigue, oliguria, and elevated hematocrit and transaminases. Similarly, presence of joint pain, thrombocytopenia, and absence of cough were independently associated with secondary vs primary dengue in adults whereas no variables were different in children. The 2009 WHO dengue classification was more sensitive than physicians' clinical diagnosis for identification of acute dengue (71.5% vs 67.1%), but was less specific. However, despite the absence of on-site diagnostic confirmation of dengue, clinical diagnosis was more sensitive on discharge (75.2%). The 2009 WHO criteria classified almost 75% as having warning signs, even though only 9 (2.3%) patients had evidence of plasma leakage and 16 (4.1%) had evidence of bleeding. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:In a large cohort with AFI, we identified features predictive of dengue vs other AFI and secondary vs primary dengue in adults versus children. The 2009 WHO dengue classification criteria had high sensitivity but low specificity compared to physicians' gestaldt diagnosis. Large cohort studies will be needed to validate the diagnostic yield of clinical impression and specific features for dengue relative to the 2009 WHO classification criteria.

We characterise the evolutionary dynamics of influenza infection described by viral sequence data collected from two challenge studies conducted in human hosts. Viral sequence data were collected at regular intervals from infected hosts. Changes in the sequence data observed across time show that the within-host evolution of the virus was driven by the reversion of variants acquired during previous passaging of the virus. Treatment of some patients with oseltamivir on the first day of infection did not lead to the emergence of drug resistance variants in patients. Using an evolutionary model, we inferred the effective rate of reassortment between viral segments, measuring the extent to which randomly chosen viruses within the host exchange genetic material. We find strong evidence that the rate of effective reassortment is low, such that genetic associations between polymorphic loci in different segments are preserved during the course of an infection in a manner not compatible with epistasis. Combining our evidence with that of previous studies we suggest that spatial heterogeneity in the viral population may reduce the extent to which reassortment is observed. Our results do not contradict previous findings of high rates of viral reassortment in vitro and in small animal studies, but indicate that in human hosts the effective rate of reassortment may be substantially more limited.

We previously showed that chromosome 8 of A/J mice was associated with susceptibility to S. aureus infection. However, the specific genes responsible for this susceptibility are unknown. Chromosome substitution strain 8 (CSS8) mice, which have chromosome 8 from A/J but an otherwise C57BL/6J genome, were used to identify the genetic determinants of susceptibility to S. aureus on chromosome 8. Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of S. aureus-infected N2 backcross mice (F1 [C8A] × C57BL/6J) identified a locus 83180780-88103009 (GRCm38/mm10) on A/J chromosome 8 that was linked to S. aureus susceptibility. All genes on the QTL (n~ 102) were further analyzed by three different strategies: 1) different expression in susceptible (A/J) and resistant (C57BL/6J) mice only in response to S. aureus, 2) consistently different expression in both uninfected and infected states between the two strains, and 3) damaging non-synonymous SNPs in either strain. Eleven candidate genes from the QTL region were significantly differently expressed in patients with S. aureus infection vs healthy human subjects. Four of these 11 genes also exhibited significantly different expression in S. aureus-challenged human neutrophils: Ier2, Crif1, Cd97 and Lyl1. CD97 ligand binding was evaluated within peritoneal neutrophils from A/J and C57BL/6J. CD97 from A/J had stronger CD55 but weaker integrin α5β1 ligand binding as compared with C57BL/6J. Because CD55/CD97 binding regulates immune cell activation and cytokine production, and integrin α5β1 is a membrane receptor for fibronectin, which is also bound by S. aureus, strain-specific differences could contribute to susceptibility to S. aureus. Down-regulation of Crif1 with siRNA was associated with increased host cell apoptosis among both naïve and S. aureus-infected bone marrow-derived macrophages. Specific genes in A/J chromosome 8, including Cd97 and Crif1, may play important roles in host defense against S. aureus.

BACKGROUND:Rickettsial infections and Q fever present similarly to other acute febrile illnesses, but are infrequently diagnosed because of limited diagnostic tools. Despite sporadic reports, rickettsial infections and Q fever have not been prospectively studied in Central America. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We enrolled consecutive patients presenting with undifferentiated fever in western Nicaragua and collected epidemiologic and clinical data and acute and convalescent sera. We used ELISA for screening and paired sera to confirm acute (≥4-fold rise in titer) spotted fever and typhus group rickettsial infections and Q fever as well as past (stable titer) infections. Characteristics associated with both acute and past infection were assessed. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:We enrolled 825 patients and identified acute rickettsial infections and acute Q fever in 0.9% and 1.3%, respectively. Clinical features were non-specific and neither rickettsial infections nor Q fever were considered or treated. Further study is warranted to define the burden of these infections in Central America.

BACKGROUND:Dengue is a frequent cause of acute febrile illness with an expanding global distribution. Since the 1960s, dengue in Sri Lanka has been documented primarily along the heavily urbanized western coast with periodic shifting of serotypes. Outbreaks from 2005-2008 were attributed to a new clade of DENV-3 and more recently to a newly introduced genotype of DENV-1. In 2007, we conducted etiologic surveillance of acute febrile illness in the Southern Province and confirmed dengue in only 6.3% of febrile patients, with no cases of DENV-1 identified. To re-evaluate the importance of dengue as an etiology of acute febrile illness in this region, we renewed fever surveillance in the Southern Province to newly identify and characterize dengue. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:A cross-sectional surveillance study was conducted at the largest tertiary care hospital in the Southern Province from 2012-2013. A total of 976 patients hospitalized with acute undifferentiated fever were enrolled, with 64.3% male and 31.4% children. Convalescent blood samples were collected from 877 (89.6%). Dengue virus isolation, dengue RT-PCR, and paired IgG ELISA were performed. Acute dengue was confirmed as the etiology for 388 (39.8%) of 976 hospitalizations, with most cases (291, 75.0%) confirmed virologically and by multiple methods. Among 351 cases of virologically confirmed dengue, 320 (91.2%) were due to DENV-1. Acute dengue was associated with self-reported rural residence, travel, and months having greatest rainfall. Sequencing of selected dengue viruses revealed that sequences were most closely related to those described from China and Southeast Asia, not nearby India. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:We describe the first epidemic of DENV-1 in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka in a population known to be susceptible to this serotype because of prior study. Dengue accounted for 40% of acute febrile illnesses in the current study. The emergence of DENV-1 as the foremost serotype in this densely populated but agrarian population highlights the changing epidemiology of dengue and the need for continued surveillance and prevention.

Influenza infection is associated with myocardial infarction (MI), suggesting that respiratory viral infection may induce biologic pathways that contribute to MI. We tested the hypotheses that 1) a validated blood gene expression signature of respiratory viral infection (viral GES) was associated with MI and 2) respiratory viral exposure changes levels of a validated platelet gene expression signature (platelet GES) of platelet function in response to aspirin that is associated with MI.A previously defined viral GES was projected into blood RNA data from 594 patients undergoing elective cardiac catheterization and used to classify patients as having evidence of viral infection or not and tested for association with acute MI using logistic regression. A previously defined platelet GES was projected into blood RNA data from 81 healthy subjects before and after exposure to four respiratory viruses: Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) (n=20), Human Rhinovirus (HRV) (n=20), Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 (H1N1) (n=24), Influenza A Virus subtype H3N2 (H3N2) (n=17). We tested for the change in platelet GES with viral exposure using linear mixed-effects regression and by symptom status.In the catheterization cohort, 32 patients had evidence of viral infection based upon the viral GES, of which 25% (8/32) had MI versus 12.2% (69/567) among those without evidence of viral infection (OR 2.3; CI [1.03-5.5], p=0.04). In the infection cohorts, only H1N1 exposure increased platelet GES over time (time course p-value = 1e-04).A viral GES of non-specific, respiratory viral infection was associated with acute MI; 18% of the top 49 genes in the viral GES are involved with hemostasis and/or platelet aggregation. Separately, H1N1 exposure, but not exposure to other respiratory viruses, increased a platelet GES previously shown to be associated with MI. Together, these results highlight specific genes and pathways that link viral infection, platelet activation, and MI especially in the case of H1N1 influenza infection.

Epidemic severe leptospirosis was recognized in Nicaragua in 1995, but unrecognized epidemic and endemic disease remains unstudied.To determine the burden of and risk factors associated with symptomatic leptospirosis in Nicaragua, we prospectively studied patients presenting with fever at a large teaching hospital. Epidemiologic and clinical features were systematically recorded, and paired sera tested by IgM-ELISA to identify patients with probable and possible acute leptospirosis. Microscopic Agglutination Test and PCR were used to confirm acute leptospirosis. Among 704 patients with paired sera tested by MAT, 44 had acute leptospirosis. Patients with acute leptospirosis were more likely to present during rainy months and to report rural residence and fresh water exposure. The sensitivity of clinical impression and acute-phase IgM detected by ELISA were poor.Leptospirosis is a common (6.3%) but unrecognized cause of acute febrile illness in Nicaragua. Rapid point-of-care tests to support early diagnosis and treatment as well as tests to support population-based studies to delineate the epidemiology, incidence, and clinical spectrum of leptospirosis, both ideally pathogen-based, are needed.

Using A/J mice, which are susceptible to Staphylococcus aureus, we sought to identify genetic determinants of susceptibility to S. aureus, and evaluate their function with regard to S. aureus infection. One QTL region on chromosome 11 containing 422 genes was found to be significantly associated with susceptibility to S. aureus infection. Of these 422 genes, whole genome transcription profiling identified five genes (Dcaf7, Dusp3, Fam134c, Psme3, and Slc4a1) that were significantly differentially expressed in a) S. aureus -infected susceptible (A/J) vs. resistant (C57BL/6J) mice and b) humans with S. aureus blood stream infection vs. healthy subjects. Three of these genes (Dcaf7, Dusp3, and Psme3) were down-regulated in susceptible vs. resistant mice at both pre- and post-infection time points by qPCR. siRNA-mediated knockdown of Dusp3 and Psme3 induced significant increases of cytokine production in S. aureus-challenged RAW264.7 macrophages and bone marrow derived macrophages (BMDMs) through enhancing NF-κB signaling activity. Similar increases in cytokine production and NF-κB activity were also seen in BMDMs from CSS11 (C57BL/6J background with chromosome 11 from A/J), but not C57BL/6J. These findings suggest that Dusp3 and Psme3 contribute to S. aureus infection susceptibility in A/J mice and play a role in human S. aureus infection.

To identify metabolomic biomarkers predictive of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) mortality in adults.Comprehensive metabolomic profiling of plasma at ICU admission to identify biomarkers associated with mortality has recently become feasible.We performed metabolomic profiling of plasma from 90 ICU subjects enrolled in the BWH Registry of Critical Illness (RoCI). We tested individual metabolites and a Bayesian Network of metabolites for association with 28-day mortality, using logistic regression in R, and the CGBayesNets Package in MATLAB. Both individual metabolites and the network were tested for replication in an independent cohort of 149 adults enrolled in the Community Acquired Pneumonia and Sepsis Outcome Diagnostics (CAPSOD) study.We tested variable metabolites for association with 28-day mortality. In RoCI, nearly one third of metabolites differed among ICU survivors versus those who died by day 28 (N = 57 metabolites, p

Anthrax poses a community health risk due to accidental or intentional aerosol release. Reliable quantitative dose-response analyses are required to estimate the magnitude and timeline of potential consequences and the effect of public health intervention strategies under specific scenarios. Analyses of available data from exposures and infections of humans and non-human primates are often contradictory. We review existing quantitative inhalational anthrax dose-response models in light of criteria we propose for a model to be useful and defensible. To satisfy these criteria, we extend an existing mechanistic competing-risks model to create a novel Exposure-Infection-Symptomatic illness-Death (EISD) model and use experimental non-human primate data and human epidemiological data to optimize parameter values. The best fit to these data leads to estimates of a dose leading to infection in 50% of susceptible humans (ID50) of 11,000 spores (95% confidence interval 7,200-17,000), ID10 of 1,700 (1,100-2,600), and ID1 of 160 (100-250). These estimates suggest that use of a threshold to human infection of 600 spores (as suggested in the literature) underestimates the infectivity of low doses, while an existing estimate of a 1% infection rate for a single spore overestimates low dose infectivity. We estimate the median time from exposure to onset of symptoms (incubation period) among untreated cases to be 9.9 days (7.7-13.1) for exposure to ID50, 11.8 days (9.5-15.0) for ID10, and 12.1 days (9.9-15.3) for ID1. Our model is the first to provide incubation period estimates that are independently consistent with data from the largest known human outbreak. This model refines previous estimates of the distribution of early onset cases after a release and provides support for the recommended 60-day course of prophylactic antibiotic treatment for individuals exposed to low doses.

The HACEK organisms (Haemophilus species, Aggregatibacter species, Cardiobacterium hominis, Eikenella corrodens, and Kingella species) are rare causes of infective endocarditis (IE). The objective of this study is to describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with HACEK endocarditis (HE) in a large multi-national cohort. Patients hospitalized with definite or possible infective endocarditis by the International Collaboration on Endocarditis Prospective Cohort Study in 64 hospitals from 28 countries were included and characteristics of HE patients compared with IE due to other pathogens. Of 5591 patients enrolled, 77 (1.4%) had HE. HE was associated with a younger age (47 vs. 61 years; p

There is great potential for host-based gene expression analysis to impact the early diagnosis of infectious diseases. In particular, the influenza pandemic of 2009 highlighted the challenges and limitations of traditional pathogen-based testing for suspected upper respiratory viral infection. We inoculated human volunteers with either influenza A (A/Brisbane/59/2007 (H1N1) or A/Wisconsin/67/2005 (H3N2)), and assayed the peripheral blood transcriptome every 8 hours for 7 days. Of 41 inoculated volunteers, 18 (44%) developed symptomatic infection. Using unbiased sparse latent factor regression analysis, we generated a gene signature (or factor) for symptomatic influenza capable of detecting 94% of infected cases. This gene signature is detectable as early as 29 hours post-exposure and achieves maximal accuracy on average 43 hours (p = 0.003, H1N1) and 38 hours (p-value = 0.005, H3N2) before peak clinical symptoms. In order to test the relevance of these findings in naturally acquired disease, a composite influenza A signature built from these challenge studies was applied to Emergency Department patients where it discriminates between swine-origin influenza A/H1N1 (2009) infected and non-infected individuals with 92% accuracy. The host genomic response to Influenza infection is robust and may provide the means for detection before typical clinical symptoms are apparent.

Staphylococcus aureus causes a spectrum of human infection. Diagnostic delays and uncertainty lead to treatment delays and inappropriate antibiotic use. A growing literature suggests the host's inflammatory response to the pathogen represents a potential tool to improve upon current diagnostics. The hypothesis of this study is that the host responds differently to S. aureus than to E. coli infection in a quantifiable way, providing a new diagnostic avenue. This study uses Bayesian sparse factor modeling and penalized binary regression to define peripheral blood gene-expression classifiers of murine and human S. aureus infection. The murine-derived classifier distinguished S. aureus infection from healthy controls and Escherichia coli-infected mice across a range of conditions (mouse and bacterial strain, time post infection) and was validated in outbred mice (AUC>0.97). A S. aureus classifier derived from a cohort of 94 human subjects distinguished S. aureus blood stream infection (BSI) from healthy subjects (AUC 0.99) and E. coli BSI (AUC 0.84). Murine and human responses to S. aureus infection share common biological pathways, allowing the murine model to classify S. aureus BSI in humans (AUC 0.84). Both murine and human S. aureus classifiers were validated in an independent human cohort (AUC 0.95 and 0.92, respectively). The approach described here lends insight into the conserved and disparate pathways utilized by mice and humans in response to these infections. Furthermore, this study advances our understanding of S. aureus infection; the host response to it; and identifies new diagnostic and therapeutic avenues.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) re-emerged in Sri Lanka in late 2006 after a 40-year hiatus. We sought to identify and characterize acute chikungunya infection (CHIK) in patients presenting with acute undifferentiated febrile illness in unstudied rural and semi-urban southern Sri Lanka in 2007.We enrolled febrile patients ≥ 2 years of age, collected uniform epidemiologic and clinical data, and obtained serum samples for serology, virus isolation, and real-time reverse-transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR). Serology on paired acute and convalescent samples identified acute chikungunya infection in 3.5% (28/797) patients without acute dengue virus (DENV) infection, 64.3% (18/28) of which were confirmed by viral isolation and/or real-time RT-PCR. No CHIKV/DENV co-infections were detected among 54 patients with confirmed acute DENV. Sequencing of the E1 coding region of six temporally distinct CHIKV isolates (April through October 2007) showed that all isolates posessed the E1-226A residue and were most closely related to Sri Lankan and Indian isolates from the same time period. Except for more frequent and persistent musculoskeletal symptoms, acute chikungunya infections mimicked DENV and other acute febrile illnesses. Only 12/797 (1.5%) patients had serological evidence of past chikungunya infection.Our findings suggest CHIKV is a prominent cause of non-specific acute febrile illness in southern Sri Lanka.

Exposure to influenza viruses is necessary, but not sufficient, for healthy human hosts to develop symptomatic illness. The host response is an important determinant of disease progression. In order to delineate host molecular responses that differentiate symptomatic and asymptomatic Influenza A infection, we inoculated 17 healthy adults with live influenza (H3N2/Wisconsin) and examined changes in host peripheral blood gene expression at 16 timepoints over 132 hours. Here we present distinct transcriptional dynamics of host responses unique to asymptomatic and symptomatic infections. We show that symptomatic hosts invoke, simultaneously, multiple pattern recognition receptors-mediated antiviral and inflammatory responses that may relate to virus-induced oxidative stress. In contrast, asymptomatic subjects tightly regulate these responses and exhibit elevated expression of genes that function in antioxidant responses and cell-mediated responses. We reveal an ab initio molecular signature that strongly correlates to symptomatic clinical disease and biomarkers whose expression patterns best discriminate early from late phases of infection. Our results establish a temporal pattern of host molecular responses that differentiates symptomatic from asymptomatic infections and reveals an asymptomatic host-unique non-passive response signature, suggesting novel putative molecular targets for both prognostic assessment and ameliorative therapeutic intervention in seasonal and pandemic influenza.

During the recent H1N1 influenza pandemic, excess morbidity and mortality was seen in young but not older adults suggesting that prior infection with influenza strains may have protected older subjects. In contrast, a history of recent seasonal trivalent vaccine in younger adults was not associated with protection.To study hemagglutinin (HA) antibody responses in influenza immunization and infection, we have studied the day 7 plasma cell repertoires of subjects immunized with seasonal trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) and compared them to the plasma cell repertoires of subjects experimentally infected (EI) with influenza H3N2 A/Wisconsin/67/2005. The majority of circulating plasma cells after TIV produced influenza-specific antibodies, while most plasma cells after EI produced antibodies that did not react with influenza HA. While anti-HA antibodies from TIV subjects were primarily reactive with single or few HA strains, anti-HA antibodies from EI subjects were isolated that reacted with multiple HA strains. Plasma cell-derived anti-HA antibodies from TIV subjects showed more evidence of clonal expansion compared with antibodies from EI subjects. From an H3N2-infected subject, we isolated a 4-member clonal lineage of broadly cross-reactive antibodies that bound to multiple HA subtypes and neutralized both H1N1 and H3N2 viruses. This broad reactivity was not detected in post-infection plasma suggesting this broadly reactive clonal lineage was not immunodominant in this subject.The presence of broadly reactive subdominant antibody responses in some EI subjects suggests that improved vaccine designs that make broadly reactive antibody responses immunodominant could protect against novel influenza strains.