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Abstract We introduce a proof-of-concept extended reality (XR) environment for discussing cancer, presenting genomic information from multiple tumour sites in the context of 3D tumour models generated from CT scans. This tool enhances multidisciplinary discussions. Clinicians and cancer researchers explored its use in oncology, sharing perspectives on XR’s potential for use in molecular tumour boards, clinician-patient communication, and education. XR serves as a universal language, fostering collaborative decision-making in oncology.

Abstract The Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects subsurface carbon storage at rates of 1 – 30 GtCO2 yr−1 by 2050. These projections, however, overlook potential geological, geographical, and techno-economic limitations to growth. We evaluate the feasibility of scaling up CO2 storage using a geographically resolved growth model that considers constraints from both geology and scale-up rate. Our results suggest a maximum global storage rate of 16 GtCO2 yr−1 by 2050, but this is contingent on the United States contributing 60% of the total. These values contrast with projections in the Sixth Assessment Report that vastly overestimate the feasibility of deployment in China, Indonesia, and South Korea. A feasible benchmark for global CO2 storage projections, and consistent with current government technology roadmaps, suggests a global storage rate of 5-6 GtCO2 yr−1, with the United States contributing around 1 GtCO2 yr−1.

There is a well-documented racial and ethnic diversity crisis in Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences (GEES) subjects in the Global North that leads to inequities in who does environmental research. The Equator project set out to increase participation and retention of UK-domiciled Black, Asian and minority ethnic students in GEES research by developing evidence-based, ring-fenced, fully remunerated interventions. These interventions were co-created with and informed by the voices of students and professionals within the GEES community, following a Theory of Change-based, action research approach. The Equator Research School brought together 30 Black, Asian and minority ethnic students in GEES, and 12 academics, professionals and mentors, from across the UK for a 5-day residential workshop in April 2022. The Research School was designed to facilitate network-building, improve awareness of research careers, enhance confidence in continuing in research, and strengthen a sense of belonging in GEES research for participants. The Equator Mentoring Network, which took place from January to May 2022, facilitated networking between 10 Black, Asian and minority ethnic student mentees and 20 academic and industry mentors involved in GEES subject areas. The overall goal of the Mentoring Network was to increase retention of Black, Asian and minority ethnic students into postgraduate research and to improve their overall experience. Evaluation of these interventions took the form of surveys to capture thoughts and reflections before, during and after interventions. Participants in both interventions provided very positive feedback; the majority of those involved felt a stronger sense of belonging and inclusion in GEES research and were more likely to consider a research career after taking part. The evaluation process showed unequivocally that the ring-fenced, discipline-specific, fully funded nature of the interventions was a critical factor in participant involvement. The work led to the development of recommendations for creating successful interventions for improving participation and retention in research, as well as templates for future, related EDI activities.

Flow is a state of highly focused attention, associated with player loyalty (thus sought after among game designers). We investigate the link between positive affect (hereby PA) and flow experience. According to the literature, games should ideally induce PA in players and that this might induce higher flow in games at optimal challenge (challenge that matches the player’s skills). We, however, propose that PA and the flow state form a negative feedback loop, where PA could reduce future flow, depending on the challenge conditions. We conducted two experiments, with 144 and 338 university students as participants, respectively. The experiments showed that under the optimal challenge condition, current PA is negatively linked to future flow. Based on this, we propose that game designers should be cautious about the use of PA-inducing stimuli, as they might form a negative feedback loop with flow.

Abstract Background Health economic modelling indicates that referral to a behavioural weight management programme is cost saving and generates QALY gains compared with a brief intervention. The aim of this study was to conduct a cross-model validation comparing outcomes from this cost-effectiveness analysis to those of a comparator model, to understand how differences in model structure contribute to outcomes. Methods The outcomes produced by two models, the School for Public Health Research diabetes prevention (SPHR) and Health Checks (HC) models, were compared for three weight-management programme strategies; Weight Watchers (WW) for 12 weeks, WW for 52 weeks, and a brief intervention, and a simulated no intervention scenario. Model inputs were standardised, and iterative adjustments were made to each model to identify drivers of differences in key outcomes. Results The total QALYs estimated by the HC model were higher in all treatment groups than those estimated by the SPHR model, and there was a large difference in incremental QALYs between the models. SPHR simulated greater QALY gains for 12-week WW and 52-week WW relative to the Brief Intervention. Comparisons across socioeconomic groups found a stronger socioeconomic gradient in the SPHR model. Removing the impact of treatment on HbA1c from the SPHR model, running both models only with the conditions that the models have in common and, to a lesser extent, changing the data used to estimate risk factor trajectories, resulted in more consistent model outcomes. Conclusions The key driver of difference between the models was the inclusion of extra evidence-based detail in SPHR on the impacts of treatments on HbA1c. The conclusions were less sensitive to the dataset used to inform the risk factor trajectories. These findings strengthen the original cost-effectiveness analyses of the weight management interventions and provide an increased understanding of what is structurally important in the models.

Abstract DNA damage resistance is a major barrier to effective DNA-damaging therapy in multiple myeloma (MM). To discover mechanisms through which MM cells overcome DNA damage, we investigate how MM cells become resistant to antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) therapy targeting Interleukin enhancer binding factor 2 (ILF2), a DNA damage regulator that is overexpressed in 70% of MM patients whose disease has progressed after standard therapies have failed. Here, we show that MM cells undergo adaptive metabolic rewiring to restore energy balance and promote survival in response to DNA damage activation. Using a CRISPR/Cas9 screening strategy, we identify the mitochondrial DNA repair protein DNA2, whose loss of function suppresses MM cells’ ability to overcome ILF2 ASO−induced DNA damage, as being essential to counteracting oxidative DNA damage. Our study reveals a mechanism of vulnerability of MM cells that have an increased demand for mitochondrial metabolism upon DNA damage activation.

BackgroundMultimorbidity, characterised by the coexistence of multiple chronic conditions in an individual, is a rising public health concern. While much of the existing research has focused on cross-sectional patterns of multimorbidity, there remains a need to better understand the longitudinal accumulation of diseases. This includes examining the associations between important sociodemographic characteristics and the rate of progression of chronic conditions.Methods and findingsWe utilised electronic primary care records from 13.48 million participants in England, drawn from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD Aurum), spanning from 2005 to 2020 with a median follow-up of 4.71 years (IQR: 1.78, 11.28). The study focused on 5 important chronic conditions: cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), chronic kidney disease (CKD), heart failure (HF), and mental health (MH) conditions. Key sociodemographic characteristics considered include ethnicity, social and material deprivation, gender, and age. We employed a flexible spline-based parametric multistate model to investigate the associations between these sociodemographic characteristics and the rate of different disease transitions throughout multimorbidity development. Our findings reveal distinct association patterns across different disease transition types. Deprivation, gender, and age generally demonstrated stronger associations with disease diagnosis compared to ethnic group differences. Notably, the impact of these factors tended to attenuate with an increase in the number of preexisting conditions, especially for deprivation, gender, and age. For example, the hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI; p-value) for the association of deprivation with T2D diagnosis (comparing the most deprived quintile to the least deprived) is 1.76 ([1.74, 1.78]; p < 0.001) for those with no preexisting conditions and decreases to 0.95 ([0.75, 1.21]; p = 0.69) with 4 preexisting conditions. Furthermore, the impact of deprivation, gender, and age was typically more pronounced when transitioning from an MH condition. For instance, the HR (95% CI; p-value) for the association of deprivation with T2D diagnosis when transitioning from MH is 2.03 ([1.95, 2.12], p < 0.001), compared to transitions from CVD 1.50 ([1.43, 1.58], p < 0.001), CKD 1.37 ([1.30, 1.44], p < 0.001), and HF 1.55 ([1.34, 1.79], p < 0.001). A primary limitation of our study is that potential diagnostic inaccuracies in primary care records, such as underdiagnosis, overdiagnosis, or ascertainment bias of chronic conditions, could influence our results.ConclusionsOur results indicate that early phases of multimorbidity development could warrant increased attention. The potential importance of earlier detection and intervention of chronic conditions is underscored, particularly for MH conditions and higher-risk populations. These insights may have important implications for the management of multimorbidity.

Introduction: Docetaxel, a taxane used in the treatment of solid tumours, exerts pharmacological activity when in its unbound form. We report a sensitive assay to quantify unbound docetaxel after oral administration of docetaxel plus encequidar (oDox+E). Unbound drug quantification is important due to its direct correlation with drug-related toxicity and therapeutic efficacy. We improve on the sensitivity of current assay methods and demonstrate the utility of the assay on a novel formulation of oral docetaxel. Methods: Ultrafiltration followed by high-performance liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS) was utilized. Long-term stability, precision, accuracy, and recovery experiments were conducted to validate the assay. Additionally, patient samples from a Phase I dose-escalation pharmacokinetic study were analyzed using the developed assay. Results: The assay method exhibited long-term stability with an observed change between 0.8 and 6.9% after 131 days of storage at −60 °C. Precision and accuracy quality controls met the FDA acceptance criteria. An average recovery of 88% was obtained. Patient sample analysis demonstrated successful implementation of the assay. Conclusion: A validated sensitive assay was developed with an LLOQ of 0.084 ng/mL using 485 µL of human plasma. The sensitivity of the assay allowed quantification of unbound docetaxel concentrations in an early-phase oDox+E clinical study to compare it against IV docetaxel using pharmacokinetic modelling. Successful development of oDox+E represents an opportunity to replace the current IV docetaxel regimen with an oral regimen with lower cost, decreased side effects, and improve patient quality of life and experience.

Abstract Background Potentially preventable complications are monitored as part of the Maryland Hospital Acquired Conditions Program and are used to adjust hospital reimbursement. Few studies have evaluated racial-ethnic disparities in potentially preventable complications. Our study objective was to explore whether racial-ethnic disparities in potentially preventable complications after Cesarean delivery exist in Maryland. Methods We performed a retrospective observational cohort study using data from the Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commission database. All patients having Cesarean delivery, who had race-ethnicity data between fiscal years 2016 and 2020 were included. Multivariable logistic regression modeling was performed to estimate risk-adjusted odds of having a potentially preventable complication in patients of different race-ethnicity. Results There were 101,608 patients who had Cesarean delivery in 33 hospitals during the study period and met study inclusion criteria. Among them, 1,772 patients (1.7%), experienced at least one potentially preventable complication. Patients who had a potentially preventable complication were older, had higher admission severity of illness, and had more government insurance. They also had more chronic hypertension and pre-eclampsia (both P

Abstract Matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) activity is tightly regulated by the endogenous tissue inhibitors (TIMPs), and dysregulated activity contributes to extracellular matrix remodelling. Accordingly, MMP/TIMP balance is associated with atherosclerotic plaque progression and instability, alongside adverse post-infarction cardiac fibrosis and subsequent heart failure. Here, we demonstrate that prolonged high-fat feeding of apolipoprotein (Apo)e-deficient mice triggered the development of unstable coronary artery atherosclerosis alongside evidence of myocardial infarction and progressive sudden death. Accordingly, the contribution of select MMPs and TIMPs to the progression of both interrelated pathologies was examined in Apoe-deficient mice with concomitant deletion of Mmp7, Mmp9, Mmp12, or Timp1 and relevant wild-type controls after 36-weeks high-fat feeding. Mmp7 deficiency increased incidence of sudden death, while Mmp12 deficiency promoted survival, whereas Mmp9 or Timp1 deficiency had no effect. While all mice harboured coronary disease, atherosclerotic burden was reduced in Mmp7-deficient and Mmp12-deficient mice and increased in Timp1-deficient animals, compared to relevant controls. Significant differences in cardiac fibrosis were only observed in Mmp-7-deficient mice and Timp1-deficient animals, which was associated with reduced capillary number. Adopting therapeutic strategies in Apoe-deficient mice, TIMP-2 adenoviral-overexpression or administration (delayed or throughout) of a non-selective MMP inhibitor (RS-130830) had no effect on coronary atherosclerotic burden or cardiac fibrosis. Taken together, our findings emphasise the divergent roles of MMPs on coronary plaque progression and associated post-MI cardiac fibrosis, highlighting the need for selective therapeutic approaches to target unstable atherosclerosis alongside adverse cardiac remodelling while negating detrimental adverse effects on either pathology, with targeting of MMP-12 seeming a suitable target.

Melanoma is a highly aggressive skin cancer, which, although highly immunogenic, frequently escapes the body’s immune defences. Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI), such as anti-PD1, anti-PDL1, and anti-CTLA4 antibodies lead to reactivation of immune pathways, promoting rejection of melanoma. However, the benefits of ICI therapy remain limited to a relatively small proportion of patients who do not exhibit ICI resistance. Moreover, the precise mechanisms underlying innate and acquired ICI resistance remain unclear. Here, we have investigated differences in melanoma tissues in responder and non-responder patients to anti-PD1 therapy in terms of tumour and immune cell gene-associated signatures. We performed multi-omics investigations on melanoma tumour tissues, which were collected from patients before starting treatment with anti-PD1 immune checkpoint inhibitors. Patients were subsequently categorized into responders and non-responders to anti-PD1 therapy based on RECIST criteria. Multi-omics analyses included RNA-Seq and NanoString analysis. From RNA-Seq data we carried out HLA phenotyping as well as gene enrichment analysis, pathway enrichment analysis and immune cell deconvolution studies. Consistent with previous studies, our data showed that responders to anti-PD1 therapy had higher immune scores (median immune score for responders = 0.1335, median immune score for non-responders = 0.05426, p-value = 0.01, Mann-Whitney U two-tailed exact test) compared to the non-responders. Responder melanomas were more highly enriched with a combination of CD8+ T cells, dendritic cells (p-value = 0.03) and an M1 subtype of macrophages (p-value = 0.001). In addition, melanomas from responder patients exhibited a more differentiated gene expression pattern, with high proliferative- and low invasive-associated gene expression signatures, whereas tumours from non-responders exhibited high invasive- and frequently neural crest-like cell type gene expression signatures. Our findings suggest that non-responder melanomas to anti-PD1 therapy exhibit a de-differentiated gene expression signature, associated with poorer immune cell infiltration, which establishes a gene expression pattern characteristic of innate resistance to anti-PD1 therapy. Improved understanding of tumour-intrinsic gene expression patterns associated with response to anti-PD1 therapy will help to identify predictive biomarkers of ICI response and may help to identify new targets for anticancer treatment, especially with a capacity to function as adjuvants to improve ICI outcomes.

Abstract Background New Zealand (NZ) has high rates of colorectal cancer but low rates of early diagnosis. Due to a lack of understanding of the pre-diagnostic experience from the patient’s perspective, it is necessary to investigate potential patient and health system factors that contribute to longer diagnostic intervals. Previous qualitative studies have discussed delays using The Model of Pathways to Treatment, but this has not been explored in the NZ context. This study aimed to understand the patient experience and perception of their general practitioner (GP) through the diagnostic process in the Waikato region of NZ. In particular, we sought to investigate potential barriers and facilitators that contribute to longer diagnostic intervals. Methods Ethical approval for this study was granted by the New Zealand Health and Disability Ethics Committee. Twenty-eight participants, diagnosed with colorectal cancer, were interviewed about their experience. Semi-structured interviews were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed thematically using The Model of Pathways to Treatment framework (intervals: appraisal, help-seeking, diagnostic). Results Participant appraisal of symptoms was a barrier to prompt diagnosis, particularly if symptoms were normalised, intermittent, or isolated in occurrence. Successful self-management techniques also resulted in delayed help-seeking. However if symptoms worsened, disruption to work and daily routines were important facilitators to seeking a GP consultation. Participants positively appraised GPs if they showed good technical competence and were proactive in investigating symptoms. Negative GP appraisals were associated with a lack of physical examinations and misdiagnosis, and left participants feeling dehumanised during the diagnostic process. However high levels of GP interpersonal competence could override poor technical competence, resulting in an overall positive experience, even if the cancer was diagnosed at an advanced stage. Māori participants often appraised symptoms inclusive of their sociocultural environment and considered the impact of their symptoms in relation to family. Conclusions The findings of this study highlight the importance of tailored colorectal cancer symptom communication in health campaigns, and indicate the significance of the interpersonal competence aspect of GP-patient interactions. These findings suggest that interpersonal competence be overtly displayed in all GP interactions to ensure a higher likelihood of a positive experience for the patient.

Abstract Euthanasia or assisted dying (EAD) remains a highly contentious issue internationally. Although polls report that a majority New Zealanders support EAD, there are concerns about the framing of the polling questions, and that those responding to the questions do not know enough about the situations described, the options available and the potential implications of EAD policy. One way to address these concerns is through a citizens' jury, which is a method of learning how a group of people view an issue following informed deliberation. This citizens' jury was conducted to learn whether a group of 15 New Zealanders thought the law should be changed to allow some form of EAD and the reasons for their view, having been informed about the issue, heard arguments for and against, and having deliberated together. The jury met for two and a half days. They did not reach a consensus, but become polarized in their positions, with several changing their positions to either strong opposition or strong support. The reasons why people support or oppose EAD were not reducible to particular principles or arguments, but reflected an integrated assessment of a range of considerations, informed by personal priorities and experiences. These results suggest that views on EAD may change in response to informed deliberation that the EAD debate involves a range of value judgments and is not likely to be resolved through deliberation alone. These results may inform international debate on EAD policy.

Background Trastuzumab is a valuable therapy option for women with ERBB2(HER2)+ breast cancer tumours, often used in combination with chemotherapy and alongside other therapies. It is known to have adverse effects, but these have proved difficult to separate from the effects of other concurrent therapies patients are usually taking. This study aims to assess the adverse effects specifically attributable to trastuzumab, and whether they vary by patient subgroup or concurrent therapies. Methods As registered on PROSPERO (CRD42019146541), we used previous systematic reviews as well as the clinicaltrials.gov registry to identify randomised controlled trials in breast cancer which compared treatment regimes with and without trastuzumab. Neoadjuvant, adjuvant and metastatic settings were examined. Data was extracted from those which had, as of July 2022, reported adverse events. Risk of bias was assessed using ROB2. Primary outcomes were adverse events of any type or severity (excluding death). A standard random-effects meta-analysis was performed for each outcome independently. In order to ascertain whether adverse effects differed by individual factors such as age or tumour characteristics, or by use of trastuzumab concurrently with hormone therapy, we examined individual-level patient data for one large trial, HERA. Results 79 relevant trials were found, of which 20 contained comparable arms of trastuzumab-containing therapy and corresponding matched therapy without trastuzumab. This allowed a comparison of 8669 patients receiving trastuzumab versus 9556 receiving no trastuzumab, which gave a list of 25 statistically and clinically significant adverse effects related to trastuzumab alone: unspecified pain, asthenia, nasopharyngitis, skin disorders (mainly rash), dyspepsia, paraesthesia, infections (often respiratory), increased lacrimation, diarrhoea, myalgia, oedema (limb/peripheral), fever, nose bleeds, cardiac events, insomnia, cough, back pain, dyspnoea, chills, dizziness or vertigo, hypertension, congestive heart failure, increased levels of aspartate aminotransferase, gastrointestinal issues and dehydration. Analysis of individual patient-level data from 5102 patients suggested that nausea is slightly more likely for women taking trastuzumab who are ER+ /also taking hormone therapy than for those who are ER-/not taking hormone therapy; no other potential treatment-subgroup interactions were detected. We found no evidence for significantly increased rates of neutropenia, anaemia or lymphopenia in patients on trastuzumab-containing regimes compared to those on comparable regimes without trastuzumab. Conclusions This meta-analysis should allow clinicians and patients to better identify and quantify the potential adverse effects of adding trastuzumab to their treatment regime for breast cancer, and hence inform their decision-making. However, limitations include serious risk of bias due to heterogeneity in reporting of the outcomes and the open-label nature of the trials.

Cystatin B (CSTB) acts as an inhibitor of cysteine proteases of the cathepsin family and loss-of-function mutations result in human brain diseases with a genotype-phenotype correlation. In the most severe case, CSTB-deficiency disrupts brain development, and yet the molecular basis of this mechanism is missing. Here, we establish CSTB as a regulator of chromatin structure during neural stem cell renewal and differentiation. Murine neural precursor cells (NPCs) undergo transient proteolytic cleavage of the N-terminal histone H3 tail by cathepsins B and L upon induction of differentiation into neurons and glia. In contrast, CSTB-deficiency triggers premature H3 tail cleavage in undifferentiated self-renewing NPCs and sustained H3 tail proteolysis in differentiating neural cells. This leads to significant transcriptional changes in NPCs, particularly of nuclear-encoded mitochondrial genes. In turn, these transcriptional alterations impair the enhanced mitochondrial respiration that is induced upon neural stem cell differentiation. Collectively, our findings reveal the basis of epigenetic regulation in the molecular pathogenesis of CSTB deficiency.

Abstract Background Screening for and active management of comorbidity soon after cancer diagnosis shows promise in altering cancer treatment and outcomes for comorbid patients. Prior to a large multi-centre study, piloting of the intervention (comprehensive medical assessment) was undertaken to investigate the feasibility of the comorbidity screening tools and proposed outcome measures, and the feasibility, acceptability and potential effect of the intervention. Methods In this pilot intervention study, 72 patients of all ages (36 observation/36 intervention) with newly diagnosed or recently relapsed colorectal adenocarcinoma were enrolled and underwent comorbidity screening and risk stratification. Intervention patients meeting pre-specified comorbidity criteria were referred for intervention, a comprehensive medical assessment carried out by geriatricians. Each intervention was individually tailored but included assessment and management of comorbidity, polypharmacy, mental health particularly depression, functional status and psychosocial issues. Recruitment and referral to intervention were tracked, verbal and written feedback were gathered from staff, and semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with 13 patients to assess screening tool and intervention feasibility and acceptability. Interviews were transcribed and analysed thematically. Patients were followed for 6–12 months after recruitment to assess feasibility of proposed outcome measures (chemotherapy uptake and completion rates, grade 3–5 treatment toxicity, attendance at hospital emergency clinic, and unplanned hospitalisations) and descriptive data on outcomes collated. Results Of the 29 intervention patients eligible for the intervention, 21 received it with feedback indicating that the intervention was acceptable. Those in the intervention group were less likely to be on 3+ medications, to have been admitted to hospital in previous 12 months, or to have limitations in daily activities. Collection of data to measure proposed outcomes was feasible with 55% (6/11) of intervention patients completing chemotherapy as planned compared to none (of 14) of the control group. No differences were seen in other outcome measures. Overall the study was feasible with modification, but the intervention was difficult to integrate into clinical pathways. Conclusions This study generated valuable results that will be used to guide modification of the study and its approaches prior to progressing to a larger-scale study. Trial registration Retrospective, 26 August 2019, ACTRN12619001192178.

Abstract Background Internationally, from 12.2–23.4% of youth (aged 16–24 years) are not in employment, education or training (NEET). These disengaged youth are more likely to experience social exclusion, increased psychological distress and poor quality of life. Youth at risk of disengagement are less likely to access traditional support services, requiring development of innovative interventions. Methods The trial is a single blind, three arm, randomised controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of a telephone delivered psychological intervention for disengaged youth (12–25 years). Participants will be randomised to receive either (i) SWEL, (ii) Befriending, or (iii) Single Session Psycho-Education. Therapy will be over an 8 week period with a minimum of four and maximum of eight sessions for the SWEL or Befriending conditions, or a single session for the Psycho-Education condition. Outcomes will be assessed at baseline and at 2, 8 and 14-month follow-up with the primary outcome being re-engagement in education, training or employment. Discussion This large, multi-site, randomised controlled trial will inform the delivery of services for young people at risk of disengaging from education or training. The provision of psychological therapy by telephone increases access by youth – especially those in rural and remote areas - both to the trial and the treatment, if adopted by services. The outcomes of this trial could have meaningful societal impact for a vulnerable population. It is expected that recruitment, intervention and retention will present challenges for the trial given the focus on disengaged youth. Trial registration ANZCTR, ACTRN12614001212640, Registered 18 Nov 2014. Retrospectively registered. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval has been obtained from the participating institutions. Results of the trial will be submitted for publication in peer reviewed journals and findings presented at scientific conferences and to key service providers and policy makers.

Background: Many decisions in health care aim to maximise health, requiring judgements about interventions that may have higher health effects but potentially incur additional costs (cost-effectiveness framework). The evidence used to establish cost-effectiveness is typically uncertain and it is important that this uncertainty is characterised. In situations in which evidence is uncertain, the experience of experts is essential. The process by which the beliefs of experts can be formally collected in a quantitative manner is structured expert elicitation. There is heterogeneity in the existing methodology used in health-care decision-making. A number of guidelines are available for structured expert elicitation; however, it is not clear if any of these are appropriate for health-care decision-making. Objectives: The overall aim was to establish a protocol for structured expert elicitation to inform health-care decision-making. The objectives are to (1) provide clarity on methods for collecting and using experts’ judgements, (2) consider when alternative methodology may be required in particular contexts, (3) establish preferred approaches for elicitation on a range of parameters, (4) determine which elicitation methods allow experts to express uncertainty and (5) determine the usefulness of the reference protocol developed. Methods: A mixed-methods approach was used: systemic review, targeted searches, experimental work and narrative synthesis. A review of the existing guidelines for structured expert elicitation was conducted. This identified the approaches used in existing guidelines (the ‘choices’) and determined if dominant approaches exist. Targeted review searches were conducted for selection of experts, level of elicitation, fitting and aggregation, assessing accuracy of judgements and heuristics and biases. To sift through the available choices, a set of principles that underpin the use of structured expert elicitation in health-care decision-making was defined using evidence generated from the targeted searches, quantities to elicit experimental evidence and consideration of constraints in health-care decision-making. These principles, including fitness for purpose and reflecting individual expert uncertainty, were applied to the set of choices to establish a reference protocol. An applied evaluation of the developed reference protocol was also undertaken. Results: For many elements of structured expert elicitation, there was a lack of consistency across the existing guidelines. In almost all choices, there was a lack of empirical evidence supporting recommendations, and in some circumstances the principles are unable to provide sufficient justification for discounting particular choices. It is possible to define reference methods for health technology assessment. These include a focus on gathering experts with substantive skills, eliciting observable quantities and individual elicitation of beliefs. Additional considerations are required for decision-makers outside health technology assessment, for example at a local level, or for early technologies. Access to experts may be limited and in some circumstances group discussion may be needed to generate a distribution. Limitations: The major limitation of the work conducted here lies not in the methods employed in the current work but in the evidence available from the wider literature relating to how appropriate particular methodological choices are. Conclusions: The reference protocol is flexible in many choices. This may be a useful characteristic, as it is possible to apply this reference protocol across different settings. Further applied studies, which use the choices specified in this reference protocol, are required. Funding: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 37. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. This work was also funded by the Medical Research Council (reference MR/N028511/1).

Magma emplacement is commonly accommodated by uplift of the overburden and free surface. By assuming this deformation is purely elastic, we can invert the shape and kinematics of ground deformation to model the geometry and dynamics of underlying intrusions. However, magma emplacement can be accommodated by viscoelastic and/or inelastic processes. We use 3D seismic reflection data to reconstruct how elastic bending and inelastic processes accommodated emplacement of a Late Jurassic sill offshore NW Australia. We restore syn-emplacement ground deformation and compare its relief to sill thickness, showing that: (i) where they are equal, elastic bending accommodated intrusion; but (ii) where sill thickness is greater, inversion of a pre-existing fault and overburden compaction contributed to magma accommodation. Our results support work showing inelastic processes can suppress ground deformation, and demonstrate magmatism can modify fault displacements. Reflection seismology is thus powerful tool for unravelling links between magma emplacement, ground deformation, and faulting.

BackgroundBisphosphonate drugs can be used to improve the outcomes of women with breast cancer. Whilst many meta-analyses have quantified their potential benefits for patients, attempts at comprehensive quantification of potential adverse effects have been limited. We undertook a meta-analysis with novel methodology to identify and quantify these adverse effects.MethodsWe systematically reviewed randomised controlled trials in breast cancer where at least one of the treatments was a bisphosphonate (zoledronic acid, ibandronate, pamidronate, alendronate or clodronate). Neoadjuvant, adjuvant and metastatic settings were examined. Primary outcomes were adverse events of any type or severity (excluding death). We carried out pairwise and network meta-analyses to estimate the size of any adverse effects potentially related to bisphosphonates. In order to ascertain whether adverse effects differed by individual factors such as age, or interacted with other common adjuvant breast cancer treatments, we examined individual-level patient data for one large trial, AZURE.FindingsWe identified 56 trials that reported adverse data, which included a total of 29,248 patients (18,301 receiving bisphosphonate drugs versus 10,947 not). 24 out of the 103 different adverse outcomes analysed showed a statistically and practically significant increase in patients receiving a bisphosphonate drug compared with those not (2 additional outcomes that appeared statistically significant came only from small studies with low event counts and no clinical suspicion so are likely artifacts). Most of these 24 are already clinically recognised: 'flu-like symptoms, fever, headache and chills; increased bone pain, arthralgia, myalgia, back pain; cardiac events, thromboembolic events; hypocalcaemia and osteonecrosis of the jaw; as well as possibly stiffness and nausea. Oral clodronate appeared to increase the risk of vomiting and diarrhoea (which may also be increased by other bisphosphonates), and there may be some hepatotoxicity. Four additional potential adverse effects emerged for bisphosphonate drugs in this analysis which have not classically be recognised: fatigue, neurosensory problems, hypertonia/muscle spasms and possibly dysgeusia. Several symptoms previously reported as potential side effects in the literature were not significantly increased in this analysis: constipation, insomnia, respiratory problems, oedema or thirst/dry mouth. Individual patient-level data and subgroup analysis revealed little variation in side effects between women of different ages or menopausal status, those with metastatic versus non-metastatic cancer, or between women receiving different concurrent breast cancer therapies.ConclusionsThis meta-analysis has produced estimates for the absolute frequencies of a range of side effects significantly associated with bisphosphonate drugs when used by breast cancer patients. These results show good agreement with previous literature on the subject but are the first systematic quantification of side effects and their severities. However, the analysis is limited by the availability and quality of data on adverse events, and the potential for bias introduced by a lack of standards for reporting of such events. We therefore present a table of adverse effects for bisphosphonates, identified and quantified to the best of our ability from a large number of trials, which we hope can be used to improve the communication of the potential harms of these drugs to patients and their healthcare providers.

Clinical trials involving anti-programmed cell death protein-1 (anti-PD-1) failed to demonstrate improved overall survival in glioblastoma (GBM) patients. This may be due to the expression of alternative checkpoints such as B- and T- lymphocyte attenuator (BTLA) on several immune cell types including regulatory T cells. Murine GBM models indicate that there is significant upregulation of BTLA in the tumor microenvironment (TME) with associated T cell exhaustion. We investigate the use of antibodies against BTLA and PD-1 on reversing immunosuppression and increasing long-term survival in a murine GBM model. C57BL/6 J mice were implanted with the murine glioma cell line GL261 and randomized into 4 arms: (i) control, (ii) anti-PD-1, (iii) anti-BTLA, and (iv) anti-PD-1 + anti-BTLA. Kaplan–Meier curves were generated for all arms. Flow cytometric analysis of blood and brains were done on days 11 and 16 post-tumor implantation. Tumor-bearing mice treated with a combination of anti-PD-1 and anti-BTLA therapy experienced improved overall long-term survival (60%) compared to anti-PD-1 (20%) or anti-BTLA (0%) alone (P = .003). Compared to monotherapy with anti-PD-1, mice treated with combination therapy also demonstrated increased expression of CD4+ IFN-γ (P

Introduction Despite the advent of immunotherapy as a promising therapeutic, glioblastoma (GBM) remains resistant to using checkpoint blockade due to its highly immunosuppressive tumor milieu. Moreover, current anti-PD-1 treatment requires multiple infusions with adverse systemic effects. Therefore, we used a PCL:PEG:PCL polymer gel loaded with anti-PD-1 and implanted at the site of lymph nodes in an attempt to maximize targeting of inactivated T cells as well as mitigate unnecessary systemic exposure. Methods Mice orthotopically implanted with GL261 glioma cells were injected with hydrogels loaded with anti-PD-1 in one of the following locations: cervical lymph nodes, inguinal lymph nodes, and the tumor site. Mice treated systemically with anti-PD-1 were used as comparative controls. Kaplan–Meier curves were generated for all arms, with ex vivo flow cytometric staining for L/D, CD45, CD3, CD4, CD8, TNF-α and IFN-y and co-culture ELISpots were done for immune cell activation assays. Results Mice implanted with PCL:PEG:PCL hydrogels carrying anti-PD-1 at the site of their lymph nodes showed significantly improved survival outcomes compared to mice systemically treated with anti-PD-1 (P = .0185). Flow cytometric analysis of brain tissue and co-culture of lymph node T cells from mice implanted with gels demonstrated increased levels of IFN-y and TNF-α compared to mice treated with systemic anti-PD-1, indicating greater reversal of immunosuppression compared to systemic treatment. Conclusions Our data demonstrate proof of principle for using localized therapy that targets lymph nodes for GBM. We propose an alternative treatment paradigm for developing new sustained local treatments with immunotherapy that are able to eliminate the need for multiple systemic infusions and their off-target effects.

Infrared scene projectors based on superlattice light emitting diodes (SLEDs) have evolved rapidly over the past decade. Much of this development has been enabled by the design of a flexible support system for driving the SLEDs. This paper describes the system and its benefits.

Traditional display protocols have limitations in terms of fixed frame rates, high bandwidth requirements, and precise control over the display of frames. We propose a novel scalable packetized display protocol architecture incorporating dynamic frame rates, high speed capabilities, and dynamic synchronization to bridge performance gaps. We further provide a modular FPGA implementation of the architecture for use on array emitters.

Abstract Background Early detection of oesophageal cancer improves outcomes; however, the optimal strategy for identifying patients at increased risk from the pre-cancerous lesion Barrett’s oesophagus (BE) is not clear. The Cytosponge, a novel non-endoscopic sponge device, combined with the biomarker Trefoil Factor 3 (TFF3) has been tested in four clinical studies. It was found to be safe, accurate and acceptable to patients. The aim of the BEST3 trial is to evaluate if the offer of a Cytosponge-TFF3 test in primary care for patients on long term acid suppressants leads to an increase in the number of patients diagnosed with BE. Methods The BEST3 trial is a pragmatic multi-site cluster-randomised controlled trial set in primary care in England. Approximately 120 practices will be randomised 1:1 to either the intervention arm, invitation to a Cytosponge-TFF3 test, or the control arm usual care. Inclusion criteria are men and women aged 50 or over with records of at least 6 months of prescriptions for acid-suppressants in the last year. Patients in the intervention arm will receive an invitation to have a Cytosponge-TFF3 test in their general practice. Patients with a positive TFF3 test will receive an invitation for an upper gastro-intestinal endoscopy at their local hospital-based endoscopy clinic to test for BE. The primary objective is to compare histologically confirmed BE diagnosis between the intervention and control arms to determine whether the offer of the Cytosponge-TFF3 test in primary care results in an increase in BE diagnosis within 12 months of study entry. Discussion The BEST3 trial is a well-powered pragmatic trial testing the use of the Cytosponge-TFF3 test in the same population that we envisage it being used in clinical practice. The data generated from this trial will enable NICE and other clinical bodies to decide whether this test is suitable for routine clinical use. Trial registration This trial was prospectively registered with the ISRCTN Registry on 19/01/2017, trial number ISRCTN68382401.

Abstract Secondary plastids derived from green algae occur in chlorarachniophytes, photosynthetic euglenophytes, and the dinoflagellate genus Lepidodinium. Recent advances in understanding the origin of these plastids have been made, but analyses suffer from relatively sparse taxon sampling within the green algal groups to which they are related. In this study we aim to derive new insights into the identity of the plastid donors, and when in geological time the independent endosymbiosis events occurred. We use newly sequenced green algal chloroplast genomes from carefully chosen lineages potentially related to chlorarachniophyte and Lepidodinium plastids, combined with recently published chloroplast genomes, to present taxon-rich phylogenetic analyses to further pinpoint plastid origins. We integrate phylogenies with fossil information and relaxed molecular clock analyses. Our results indicate that the chlorarachniophyte plastid may originate from a precusor of siphonous green algae or a closely related lineage, whereas the Lepidodinium plastid originated from a pedinophyte. The euglenophyte plastid putatively originated from a lineage of prasinophytes within the order Pyramimonadales. Our molecular clock analyses narrow in on the likely timing of the secondary endosymbiosis events, suggesting that the event leading to Lepidodinium likely occurred more recently than those leading to the chlorarachniophyte and photosynthetic euglenophyte lineages.

Purpose: Neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) are a diverse group of malignancies that pose challenges common to all rare tumors. The Commonwealth Neuroendocrine Tumor Collaboration (CommNETS) was established in 2015 to enhance outcomes for patients with NETs in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. A modified Delphi process was undertaken involving patients, clinicians, and researchers to identify gaps in NETs research to produce a comprehensive and defensible research action plan. Methods: A three-round modified Delphi process was undertaken with larger representation than usual for medical consensus processes. Patient/advocate and health care provider/researcher expert panels undertook Round 1, which canvassed 17 research priorities and 42 potential topics; in Round 2, these priorities were ranked. Round 3 comprised a face-to-face meeting to generate final consensus rankings and formulate the research action plan. Results: The Delphi groups consisted of 203 participants in Round 1 (64% health care providers/researchers, 36% patient/advocates; 52% Canadian, 32% Australian, and 17% New Zealander), of whom 132 participated in Round 2. The top eight priorities were biomarker development; peptide receptor radionuclide therapy optimization; trials of new agents in advanced NETs; functional imaging; sequencing therapies for metastatic NETs, including development of validated surrogate end points for studies; pathologic classification; early diagnosis; interventional therapeutics; and curative surgery. Two major areas were ranked significantly higher by patients/advocates: early diagnosis and curative surgery. Six CommNETS working parties were established. Conclusion: This modified Delphi process resulted in a well-founded set of research priorities for the newly formed CommNETS collaboration by involving a large, diverse group of stakeholders. This approach to setting a research agenda for a new collaborative group should be adopted to ensure that research plans reflect unmet needs and priorities in the field.

Abstract Transcription factors (TFs) control the rate of mRNA production. Technological advances have made the task of measuring mRNA levels for all genes straightforward, but identifying causal relationships between TFs and their target genes remains an unsolved problem in biology. In their recent study, McIsaac and colleagues (Hackett et al, 2020) apply a method for inducing the overexpression of a TF and studying the dynamics with which all transcripts respond. Using time series analysis, they are able to resolve direct effects of TFs from secondary effects. This new experimental and analytical approach provides an efficient means of defining gene regulatory relationships for all TFs.

flexsurv is an R package for fully-parametric modeling of survival data. Any parametric time-to-event distribution may be fitted if the user supplies a probability density or hazard function, and ideally also their cumulative versions. Standard survival distributions are built in, including the three and four-parameter generalized gamma and F distributions. Any parameter of any distribution can be modeled as a linear or log-linear function of covariates. The package also includes the spline model of Royston and Parmar (2002), in which both baseline survival and covariate effects can be arbitrarily flexible parametric functions of time. The main model-fitting function, flexsurvreg, uses the familiar syntax of survreg from the standard survival package (Therneau 2016). Censoring or left-truncation are specified in 'Surv' objects. The models are fitted by maximizing the full log-likelihood, and estimates and confidence intervals for any function of the model parameters can be printed or plotted. flexsurv also provides functions for fitting and predicting from fully-parametric multi-state models, and connects with the mstate package (de Wreede, Fiocco, and Putter 2011). This article explains the methods and design principles of the package, giving several worked examples of its use.