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Le taux de césarienne varie de 1 % à 58 % dans le monde. Il est particulièrement bas, en deçà de 5 %, dans des pays peu développés d’Afrique subsaharienne comme le Mali (2 %), le Nigéria (3 %) et le Congo (5 %). À l’opposé, il dépasse les 30 % dans des pays européens comme Chypre (57 %), la Géorgie (41 %), la Roumanie (40 %) ou l’Italie (35 %). Il est très élevé aussi en Amérique latine qui a une longue histoire d’accouchements par césarienne. La République dominicaine arrive en tête avec 58 %, suivie notamment par le Brésil (55 %), le Chili (50 %) et l’Équateur (49 %).

This research note is prompted by a paper by Kashyap (Is prenatal sex selection associated with lower female child mortality? Population Studies 73(1): 57-78). Kashyap's paper, which provides 40 original estimates of missing female births, relies on an alternative definition of missing female births, leading to estimates of about half the magnitude of other estimates. There appears, therefore, a real need to take stock of the concept of missing female births widely used by statisticians around the world for assessing the demographic consequences of prenatal sex selection. This research note starts with a brief review of the history of the concept and the difference between Amartya Sen's original method and the alternative method found elsewhere to compute missing female births. We then put forward three different arguments (deterministic and probabilistic approaches, and consistency analysis) in support of the original computation procedure based on the number of observed male births and the expected sex ratio at birth.

Depuis les années 1980, la combinaison de la préférence traditionnelle pour les fils, de la baisse de la fécondité et de l'accès à des technologies de reproduction abordables a fait pencher les rapports de masculinité à la naissance en faveur des hommes. Ceci résulte de l'avortement sélectif des fœtus féminins. L’efficacité des politiques de l’Arménie et du Vietnam est ensuite discutée.

IntroductionSkewed levels of the sex ratio at birth (SRB) due to sex-selective abortions have been observed in several countries since the 1970s. They will lead to long-term sex imbalances in more than one-third of the world’s population with yet unknown social and economic impacts on affected countries. Understanding the potential evolution of sex imbalances at birth is therefore essential for anticipating and planning for changing sex structures across the world.MethodsWe produced probabilistic SRB projections from 2021 to 2100 based on different scenarios of sex ratio transition and assessed their implications in terms of missing female births at global, regional and national levels. Based on a comprehensive SRB database with 3.26 billion birth records, we project the skewed SRB and missing female births with a Bayesian hierarchical time series mixture model. The SRB projections under reference scenario S1 assumed SRB transitions only for countries with strong statistical evidence of SRB inflation, and the more extreme scenario S2 assumed a sex ratio transition for countries at risk of SRB inflation but with no or limited evidence of ongoing inflation.ResultsUnder scenario S1, we projected 5.7 (95% uncertainty interval (1.2; 15.3)) million additional missing female births to occur by 2100. Countries affected will be those already affected in the past by imbalanced SRB, such as China and India. If all countries at risk of SRB inflation experience a sex ratio transition as in scenario S2, the projected missing female births increase to 22.1 (12.2; 39.8) million with a sizeable contribution of sub-Saharan Africa.ConclusionThe scenario-based projections provide important illustrations of the potential burden of future prenatal sex discrimination and the need to monitor SRBs in countries with son preference. Policy planning will be needed in the years to come to minimise future prenatal sex discrimination and its impact on social structures.

The absence of reliable registration of Covid-19 deaths in India has prevented the proper assessment and monitoring of coronavirus pandemic. India’s relatively young age structure tends to conceal the severity of Covid-19 mortality, which is concentrated in older age groups. In this paper, we present four different demographic samples of Indian populations for which we have information on both their demographic structures and death outcomes. We show that we can model the age gradient of Covid-19 mortality in India and use this modeling for estimating the level of Covid-19 mortality in the country. Our findings point to a death toll of about 2.2 million persons by late May 2021. Once India’s age structure is taken into account, these figures correspond to one of the most severe cases of Covid-19 mortality in the world.BackgroundIndia has recorded after February a second outbreak of coronavirus that has affected the entire country. The accuracy of official statistics of Covid-19 mortality has been called in question and the real number of Covid-19 deaths is thought to be several times higher than reported. In this paper, we assembled four independent population samples to model and estimate the level of Covid-19 mortality in India.MethodsWe first used a first population sample with age and sex of Covid-19 victims to develop a Gompertz model of Covid-19 mortality in India. We applied and adjusted this mortality model on two other national population samples after factoring in the demographic characteristics of these samples. We finally derive from one of these samples the most reasonable estimate of Covid-19 mortality level in India and confirm this result with the use of a fourth population sample.FindingsOur findings point to a death toll of about 2.2 million persons by late May 2021. This is the largest number of Covid-19 deaths in the world. Once standardized for its age and sex structure, India’s Covid-19 mortality rate is above that of Brazil or the USA.InterpretationOur analysis shows that existing population samples allow for an alternative estimation of deaths due to Covid-19 in India. The results confirm that only one out 7 Covid-19 deaths appear to be registered in India. The estimates point to a very Covid-19 mortality rate, which is even higher after age and sex standardization. The magnitude of the pandemic in India requires immediate attention and calls for a strong response based on a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions and the scale-up of vaccination to make them accessible to all, with an improved surveillance system to monitor the progression of the pandemic.

The sex ratio at birth (SRB, i.e., the ratio of male to female births) in Vietnam has been imbalanced since the 2000s. Previous studies have revealed a rapid increase in the SRB over the past 15 years and the presence of important variations across regions. More recent studies suggested that the nation’s SRB may have plateaued during the 2010s. Given the lack of exhaustive birth registration data in Vietnam, it is necessary to estimate and project levels and trends in the regional SRBs in Vietnam based on a reproducible statistical approach. We compiled an extensive database on regional Vietnam SRBs based on all publicly available surveys and censuses and used a Bayesian hierarchical time series mixture model to estimate and project SRB in Vietnam by region from 1980 to 2050. The Bayesian model incorporates the uncertainties from the observations and year-by-year natural fluctuation. It includes a binary parameter to detect the existence of sex ratio transitions among Vietnamese regions. Furthermore, we model the SRB imbalance using a trapezoid function to capture the increase, stagnation, and decrease of the sex ratio transition by Vietnamese regions. The model results show that four out of six Vietnamese regions, namely, Northern Midlands and Mountain Areas, Northern Central and Central Coastal Areas, Red River Delta, and South East, have existing sex imbalances at birth. The rise in SRB in the Red River Delta was the fastest, as it took only 12 years and was more pronounced, with the SRB reaching the local maximum of 1.146 with a 95% credible interval (1.129, 1.163) in 2013. The model projections suggest that the current decade will record a sustained decline in sex imbalances at birth, and the SRB should be back to the national SRB baseline level of 1.06 in all regions by the mid-2030s.

The growing number of series on COVID-19 deaths classified by age and sex, released by national health authorities, has allowed us to compute age and sex patterns of its mortality, based on 183,619 deaths from Western Europe and the USA. We highlight the specific age schedule of COVID-19 mortality and its pronounced excess male mortality and we then apply these COVID-19 death rates to world populations, in 2020. Our results underscore that considerable variations exist between world regions, as concerns the potential impact of COVID-19 mortality, because of their demographic structures. When compared to younger countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, the vulnerability to COVID-19 mortality is shown to be 17 times higher in several industrialized countries of East Asia and Europe. There is a high correlation (r2= .44) between demographic vulnerability to COVID-19 mortality and current COVID-19 death rates. Abstract COVID-19, mortality, age structures, death rates, Europe, USA. Background The data available on infection and death rates from COVID-19 have pointed to the elderly’s vulnerability to pandemics, especially elderly men. However, current models have not yet incorporated the growing volume of information on deaths by age and sex that is being released by statistical offices and health authorities. These newly available data allow us to examine the specific age and sex patterns of COVID-19 mortality and to estimate the impact of specific demographic structures on potential COVID-19 mortality worldwide. Methods We use the data available on May 15, 2020, from the nine countries with the largest series of deaths, disaggregated by age and sex: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, the UK, and the USA. Using 183,619 deaths (60.2% of all currently estimated COVID-19 deaths), we estimate the sex-specific death rates, by 5-year ranges, for two large death samples: USA and Western Europe. We compare these mortality rates with Gompertz models and with life tables of the world’s population, estimated by the United Nations. We apply these COVID-19 mortality rates by sex and 5-year group to the 2020 age and sex structures of world countries and regions, and obtain an index summarizing the relative magnitude of their potential vulnerability to COVID-19 mortality because of their demographic structures. Findings COVID-19 death rates cannot be computed below age 15. COVID-19 death rates from age 15–19 years to 90+ increase by a factor of 3 of every ten years, at a rate that is faster than general mortality. Male mortality from COVID-19 is systematically higher than female mortality, with a peak of excess male mortality occurring among 55-59-year-olds. Age and sex structures show considerable variations across countries, in terms of vulnerability to COVID-19 mortality. It transpires that the youngest countries in Central Africa are 17 times less vulnerable than aging countries, such as Japan. Interpretation Whereas the true intensity of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic remains underestimated by existing statistics, this unique mortality dataset shows that the regularity of the distribution of COVID deaths by age and sex is in line with the standard Gompertz mortality equation; thus confirming the quality of the first death samples and the unique age and sex patterns of COVID-19 mortality. COVID-19 death rates tend to be negligible below age 15 and cannot be used for analysis. The rate of progression of death rates by age is faster than that of general mortality. This feature places the elderly population in a particularly vulnerable situation compared to younger adults. Male excess mortality from COVID-19 also appears far more pronounced than in general mortality patterns, with men aged 40–59 years being almost 2.5 times more likely to die than women of the same age. Our analysis also points to considerable variations between world regions, as concerns the potential impact of COVID-19 mortality, because of their demographic structures. The COVID-19 structural vulnerability index ranges from .28 in Western or Middle Africa to 2.6 in Southern Europe. There is a high correlation between demographic vulnerability to COVID-19 mortality and current COVID-19 death rates (r2= .44 for 188 countries).

The sex ratio at birth (SRB) in India has been reported imbalanced since the 1970s. Previous studies have shown a great variation in the SRB across geographic locations in India till 2016. As one of the most populous countries and in view of its great regional heterogeneity, it is crucial to produce probabilistic projections for the SRB in India at state level for the purpose of population projection and policy planning. In this paper, we implement a Bayesian hierarchical time series model to project SRB in India by state. We generate SRB probabilistic projections from 2017 to 2030 for 29 States and Union Territories (UTs) in India, and present results in 21 States/UTs with data from the Sample Registration System. Our analysis takes into account two state-specific factors that contribute to sex-selective abortion and resulting sex imbalances at birth: intensity of son preference and fertility squeeze. We project that the largest contribution to female births deficits is in Uttar Pradesh, with cumulative number of missing female births projected to be 2.0 (95% credible interval [1.9; 2.2]) million from 2017 to 2030. The total female birth deficits during 2017-2030 for the whole India is projected to be 6.8 [6.6; 7.0] million.

The theory of demographic transistion assumes the gradual move from a pre-transitional equilibrium of birth and death rates to a new equilibrium corresponding to lower vital rates. While this model remains largely correct,research on more than two centuries of demographic change has pointed to a signifcant number of variants and departures from the model. For instance, the secular decline in vital rates was often preceded by a short-term rise, starting from different high-fertility levels (Dyson and Murphy1985), and was at times followed by unexpected stalls and rebounds as in post war Europe (Van Bavel and Reher 2013), Southeast Asia (Hull 2012),sub-Saharan Africa (Shapiro and Gebreselassie 2013), and Central Asia(Spoorenberg 2015).

I present a method for estimating indicators of gender bias in reproductive behaviour, using microdata based on the own-children method. The method is first tested on a large sample from India with both birth history and household records. I then apply the method to Georgia, Indonesia, and Vietnam. My estimates demonstrate that the proportion of Georgian couples expressing a preference for sons in their fertility behaviour closely corresponds to the proportion resorting to sex selection at high parities. I show how individual Indonesian provinces provide examples of both son and daughter preference. The method also allows me to date the onset of sex imbalances at birth in Vietnam. The approach based on the own-children method therefore provides a unique tool for estimating the diversity and intensity of gender bias in reproductive behaviour.

Key Points Question What is the current proportion of cesarean births across India? Findings In this cross-sectional study of 699 686 adolescent girls and women aged 15 to 49 years, the cesarean birth rate was 17.2% in 2010 through 2016, with variations ranging from 3% to 70% according to regions and socioeconomic groups. Meaning India is characterized at the same time by a deficit of access to cesarean deliveries in poorer communities and the emerging overuse of cesarean delivery in more affluent regions and social groups., This cross-sectional study estimates the rates of cesarean delivery and assesses regional and socioeconomic disparities within these rates among females of child-bearing age in India., Importance The World Health Organization recommends that rates of cesarean delivery range from 10% to 15%. India has the largest annual number of births in the world and needs updates of existing estimates. Objective To provide a new set of estimates of the rates of cesarean delivery and to map regional and socioeconomic disparities within these rates in India. Design, Setting, and Participants Cross-sectional study primarily based on cross-sectional figures drawn from the fourth round of the National Family and Health Survey conducted from January 20, 2015, through December 4, 2016, by the Indian Institute for Population Sciences in Mumbai. The survey interviewed 699 686 girls and women aged 15 to 49 years and collected information on their last 3 pregnancies since January 2010 (259 627 births). The study population was statistically representative of India’s 36 states and Union territories and its 640 districts. The survey also included information on the socioeconomic status of households. The research is based on data tabulations and mapping and on spatial and regression analyses of microdata. Socioeconomic inequalities in access to cesarean deliveries were assessed using the Gini coefficient. Data were analyzed from August to October 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures Rate of cesarean deliveries by regional and socioeconomic characteristics. Results The cesarean birth rate computed for 699 686 Indian girls and women aged 15 to 49 years (mean [SD] age, 26.8 [5.0] years) was 17.2% (95% CI, 17.1%-17.3%) in 2010 to 2016, which corresponds to an estimated 4.38 million cesarean deliveries per year during the period (95% CI, 4.34-4.41 million) in India. Cesarean birth rates vary widely within the country, with a range of 5.8% (95% CI, 5.1%-6.5%) to 40.1% (95% CI, 38.4%-41.8%) across states and 4.4% (95% CI, 4.3%-4.6%) to 35.9% (35.4%-36.4%) across socioeconomic quintiles. The rate significantly increased from 9.2% (95% CI, 9.1%-9.3%) in 2004 to 2008. According to the recommended 10% to 15% benchmark of cesarean birth rates by the WHO, the estimated deficit of cesarean births in India is 0.5 million per year, whereas the estimated excess of cesarean births is 1.8 million. The overall Gini coefficient of inequality in access to cesarean deliveries is 46.4. Conclusions and Relevance The rate of cesarean births is increasing in India and has already crossed the World Health Organization threshold of 15%. More research is needed to understand the factors behind the rapid rise of cesarean deliveries among affluent groups and in more developed regions.

This volume by Aris Ananta and his colleagues is likely to become the bible of students of Indonesia’s ethnic dynamics in the years to come. It will also emerge the best testimony to Indonesia’s st...

Several cultures in the world traditionally favor the birth of sons over that of daughters. This preference drives various forms of discrimination against female births ultimately reflected in demographic imbalances. Over the last decades, modern reproductive technology has made prenatal diagnosis widely accessible to parents. In certain Asian and Eastern European countries, this has led to skewed sex ratio at birth (SRB) as a result of sex-selective abortions. After reviewing motivations and circumstances associated to prenatal sex selection, our paper analyzes global trends in sex imbalances at birth as well as their parity, regional and socio-economic differentials. We focus our attention on the experience of Azerbaijan, India, and South Korea as instances of three distinct SRB trajectories. Finally, we discuss scenarios concerning the future of these sex imbalances and the implications of a consistent number of “missing women” for affected societies.

Le Vietnam est l’un des pays ou la proportion de naissances masculines a recemment augmente en raison des avortements selectifs selon le sexe. Les donnees d'etat civil exhaustives faisant defaut, nous recourrons a deux methodes indirectes a partir de l’enquete intercensitaire de 2014 pour suivre les tendances du rapport de masculinite a la naissance (RMN) et estimer les preferences de sexe en matiere de fecondite. Ces methodes fournissent des resultats similaires qui attestent de la poursuite de la hausse du RMN au Vietnam entamee en 2003. Toutefois, les donnees annuelles du Bureau national de la statistique montrent que la progression du RMN a atteint un plateau en 2014, situe entre 112 et 113 naissances masculines pour 100 naissances feminines, qui apparait relativement stable jusqu’aux dernieres donnees provisoires disponibles (2017). Cette analyse met en evidence les disparites du RMN, plus desequilibre dans les regions du Nord et chez les couples les plus aises, et la diffusion de la selection prenatale au sein de ces regions et des differents groupes socioeconomiques sur une periode de cinq ans. Les probabilites d’agrandissement permettent egalement d’examiner les differences de comportements reproductifs en montrant que les couples vietnamiens ont tendance a augmenter leur nombre d’enfants lorsqu’ils n’ont pas eu de fils.

Indonesia is usually viewed as a country free of the acute forms of gender discrimination observed elsewhere in East or South Asia, a situation often ascribed to Indonesia's bilateral kinship system. I re-examine this hypothesis by focusing on ethnic and regional variations in sex differentials. New indicators of marriage practices and gender bias derived from 2010 census microdata highlight the presence of patrilocal patterns as well as a distinct presence of son preference in fertility behaviour in many parts of the archipelago. I also present evidence for excessive child sex ratios and excess mortality of females in some areas that appear to be related to son preference and patrilocal residence systems. The findings confirm the association between son preference, sex differentials in mortality, prenatal sex selection, and kinship systems. I conclude with a more regional perspective on demographic vulnerability of females, distinguishing bilateral South East Asia from more patrilineal Melanesia.

This chapter provides a synthesis of the debate between demographers and anthropologists around the issue of sex selection. The story began in the 1980s when field studies hinted that the strength of gender bias observed in local communities was likely to translate into tangible numerical imbalances. It took years for statisticians to confirm that the unusual rise in the sex ratio at birth detected in several countries was not fictitious, but a product of gender discrimination. Demographers later reacted by forecasting a marriage squeeze due to the mounting surplus of young adult males. Turning the tables on anthropologists, they further asserted that this unprecedented squeeze threatened to disrupt the traditional matrimonial system, a claim revisited by this volume’s contributors. The chapter traces this ongoing dialogue between two disciplinary fields that have both distinct and complementary capacities for unpacking the rationale and mechanisms of gender bias.

Summary Background Excess female mortality causes half of the missing women (estimated deficit of women in countries with suspiciously low proportion of females in their population) today. Globally, most of these avoidable deaths of women occur during childhood in China and India. We aimed to estimate excess female under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) for India's 35 states and union territories and 640 districts. Methods Using the summary birth history method (or Brass method), we derived district-level estimates of U5MR by sex from 2011 census data. We used data from 46 countries with no evidence of gender bias for mortality to estimate the effects and intensity of excess female mortality at district level. We used a detailed spatial and statistical analysis to highlight the correlates of excess mortality at district level. Findings Excess female U5MR was 18·5 per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 13·1–22·6) in India 2000–2005, which corresponds to an estimated 239 000 excess deaths (169 000–293 000) per year. More than 90% of districts had excess female mortality, but the four largest states in northern India (Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh) accounted for two-thirds of India's total number. Low economic development, gender inequity, and high fertility were the main predictors of excess female mortality. Spatial analysis confirmed the strong spatial clustering of postnatal discrimination against girls in India. Interpretation The considerable effect of gender bias on mortality in India highlights the need for more proactive engagement with the issue of postnatal sex discrimination and a focus on the northern districts. Notably, these regions are not the same as those most affected by skewed sex ratio at birth. Funding None.

Traditionally, marriage is a near universality in China. However, in the coming decades, owing to the growing sex imbalance, millions of men will be unable to marry. As a consequence, bachelorhood is becoming a new demographic concern, particularly affecting men from the most disadvantaged socio-economic groups. In China's cultural context today, heterosexual marriage remains a prerequisite for family formation and, in rural society particularly, the legitimate setting for sexual activity. Under such circumstances, bachelorhood is likely to produce privations on various fronts, the consequences of which for both the individual and the community are still largely unknown. This article focuses on the opinions and sexual behaviour of bachelors, and highlights significant variations from those of married men. It is based on the findings of an exploratory survey conducted in 2008 in selected villages in a rural county in Anhui province, referred to here as JC county. The survey provides insights into the more general situation of rural men unable to marry in a context of female shortage, and indicates the conditions a growing number of Chinese men will face in the near future.

This article examines the recent rise in the sex ratio at birth in Vietnam and relates its emergence to kinship systems and ethnic composition using 2009 census micro-data. Presentation of the main socioeconomic and ethnic differentials in birth masculinity is followed by a review of the three intermediate factors leading to increases in the sex ratio at birth: prenatal technology, declining fertility, and gender bias. An indirect measurement of fertility behavior is used to demonstrate the close association between levels of the sex ratio at birth and the intensity of son preference. Data on household composition indicate that Vietnam is characterized by the co-existence of kinship patterns typical of East and Southeast Asia. Son preference in Vietnam is found to be related to the prevalence of more traditional patrilineal systems. The article concludes by considering the implications of the cultural dimensions of prenatal sex selection for policy responses and for the likely future change in the sex ratio at birth.

This article examines the relationship between birth masculinity and socio-economic levels in China. Both 2000 and 2005 data suggest the presence of a non-linear relationship between the sex ratio at birth and socio-economic status, with a lower sex ratio at birth observed among both the poorest and the richest households. This inverted-U pattern is significantly different from what is observed in India and what has been assumed previously for China. Multivariate analyses indicate that this pattern persists after the introduction of several other covariates of birth masculinity such as ethnicity, fertility, migration status, age or parity. These results suggest that further economic advances and socio-economic mobility could contribute to the return to normalcy of the sex ratio at birth.

This paper presents population forecasts for China and India till 2100. The rise in sex ratios at birth in these countries has been observed to be the longest-running and most pronounced in Asia. The paper is based on different hypotheses on the future evolution of birth masculinity in each of these countries. These hypotheses are derived from an examination of present trends across Asia. The population forecasts allow us to explore the influence of various trajectories of sex ratio at birth on the demographic structures of both countries till 2100. In particular, the specific impact of skewed sex ratios on the adult population in which gender imbalances may translate into a major marriage squeeze in the future will be examined.

This article adopts a comparative perspective to review the recent increase in the sex ratio at birth (SRB) across Asia. It first describes and compares the most recent birth statistics in Asia in order to identify commonalities in the gradual rise of SRBs observed from Armenia to South Korea. This comparison provides the basis for identifying specific transition patterns in the changes in SRBs. Their recent rise is then interpreted in a social and historical framework borrowed from fertility decline and based on three preconditions: access to sex-selection technology, preference for male births, and pressure from low fertility. On a broader plane, the process of growing imbalances in the sex composition of the population gives rise to a tragedy of the commons. This article indicates the factors that appear most likely to trigger a turnaround in this transitional demographic situation and to facilitate a return to biologically normal sex ratios in the future.

Cet article propose une exploration systematique de la geographie du sex-ratio juvenile en Inde. Une presentation cartographique a une micro-echelle inedite offre le point de depart a une evaluation de cette structuration geographique completee par une analyse geostatistique de l’autocorrelation spatiale. L’effet de la distance sur les variations des niveaux de discrimination de genre est ensuite mis en regard avec une mesure comparable des differentiations socio-economiques du sex-ratio juvenile. Cet examen comparatif permet de demontrer que la structuration geographique joue un role primordial dans l’heterogeneite des comportements discriminatoires de l’Inde contemporaine.

L’article propose d’examiner les determinants de la hausse contemporaine du rapport de masculinite parmi les enfants en Inde a la lumiere des donnees regionales. Les disparites marquees entre districts indiens, mises en evidence par la mesure de l’autocorrelation spatiale, sont en effet une cle pour comprendre cette evolution recente. Elles permettent notamment d’evaluer l’influence relative d’un grand nombre de caracteristiques sociales et economiques sur les variations interregionales du sex-ratio. On met en evidence l’effet propre de la prosperite economique qui apparait nettement correle a la hausse du rapport de masculinite. Une modelisation elargie de ces differences regionales, incorporant la dimension spatiale, permet en outre de demontrer le role specifique joue par la composition sociologique de la population, le developpement economique et les phenomenes de diffusion. La conclusion vise a offrir une interpretation de ces differents determinants de la masculinisation demographique en Inde.

L’article propose d’examiner les determinants de la hausse contemporaine du rapport de masculinite parmi les enfants en Inde a la lumiere des donnees regionales du recensement de 2001. Les disparites marquees entre districts indiens, mises en evidence par la mesure de l’autocorrelation spatiale, sont en effet une cle pour comprendre cette evolution recente. Elles permettent notamment d’evaluer l’influence relative d’un grand nombre de caracteristiques sociales et economiques sur les variations interregionales du sex-ratio. On met en evidence l’effet propre de la prosperite economique qui apparait nettement correle a la hausse du rapport de masculinite. Une modelisation elargie de ces differences regionales, incorporant la dimension spatiale, permet en outre de demontrer le role specifique joue par la composition sociologique de la population, le developpement economique et les phenomenes de diffusion. La conclusion vise a offrir une interpretation de ces differents determinants de la masculinisation demographique en Inde.

This chapter examines the pace and contours of fertility decline in India since the 1950s. India’s fertility recent history is characterized on the one hand by long-term trends that are both slow and steady, and on the other hand by a considerable level of geographical heterogeneity. In the absence of any strong determinant of fertility change, the decline appears to be largely self-sustained across India. I use therefore observed trends over the last four decades to forecast the course of fertility in India in the coming years. Results of this simulation point to a pace of fertility decline which is distinctly faster than most recent projections of fertility trends in India.

Fertility decline in Asia is a story that has altered the world’s demography, and fertility decline in the three demographic giants has changed our perspective on long-term population prospects. During the 1950s, fertility levels were quite high in China, India and Indonesia, and their contribution to the overall population growth was preeminent since they accounted for 45 % of the total number of births in the world. But the onset of fertility decline after 1970 caused this proportion to decline and births in the three Asian countries amount nowadays only to 35 % of the world total. The proportion is predicted to continue to decline till the end of the century. This reduction in family size is indeed the major driver of the historical downturn in demographic growth rates recorded at the end of the twentieth century. This chapter provides an overview of regional fertility differentials and examines some of the implications of future fertility trajectories observed in China, India and Indonesia. China’s experience suggests a decline well below replacement level while India’s course of fertility decline stands indeed in marked contrast with China’s, since the decrease has long been far more moderate and somewhat immune to government pressure to accelerate its pace. Indonesia provides an even more complex scenario due to the current stalling of fertility decline.

The overall reduction of mortality in Asia is a central dimension of the global demographic change over the last century and the three chapters of Part One provide an in-depth account of more recent developments in China, India and Indonesia. We examine in this synthesis chapter the mortality trends observed across China, India and Indonesia since the 1950s, portraying an almost linear and uninterrupted progression in longevity in the three countries. Yet, the pace of mortality reduction in the three Asian countries is now slower than currently observed in less developed countries. We also observe that during the last two decades the progress is not necessarily faster in Asia than in developed countries, in spite of its outstanding economic growth. We finally stress the significant variations in terms of mortality levels and trends within each country; subnational heterogeneity remains pronounced, with limited evidence of regional convergence over the last decades. The chapter ends with a review of the main epidemiological and demographic implications of mortality decline in Asia’s three demographic giants.

This chapter provides a comparative picture of demographic change in China, India and Indonesia in a broader perspective and focuses on some of the major linkages and singularities across the three countries. It starts with a first section devoted to the state of demographic knowledge and sources in Asia, emphasizing the lead role played by national decennial censuses for monitoring population dynamics. The next section draws a broader picture of demographic growth in China, India and Indonesia and contrasts them with world trends. This analysis better illustrates the timing of the great demographic downturn around 1970 and points to the major difference between the three countries, and in particular to China’s unique trajectory. The third part of this chapter covers the profound mechanisms of recomposition of the population induced by change in the basic demographic parameters. This includes the age transition, changes in sex composition, educational expansion as well as population redistribution. Social and regional disaggregation is again crucial for our understanding of trends since the most urbanized parts of China, India and Indonesia tend to concentrate all features of modernity: signs of ultra-low fertility, reduced share of children, favorable dependency ratios, higher education, heavy migratory influx, and record population density. We end this chapter with a section discussing the role of policies in shaping population change in China, India and Indonesia over the last five decades.

Background: The rise of one-person households in Viet Nam remains poorly documented, in spite of its significant growth since the 1990s and its relevance to the understanding of social and demographic change. Objective: We aim to present a systematic analysis of the growing number of one-person households, interpret recent trends and describe the main characteristics of the population living alone. Methods: Our research is drawn from the 2009 census. Cross-tabulations are followed by regression analysis modelling of the probability of living alone. A cluster analysis identifies the profiles of people in one-person households. Finally an in-depth analysis of the most vulnerable type of one-person households is done. Results: Our analysis stresses the heterogeneity of the population living alone, in which we can identify four distinct profiles. The largest cluster is comprised of elderly widows and widowers. It arguably constitutes the most fragile population segment, as illustrated by several health and economic indicators. The second cluster comprises a more heterogeneous population, but only composed of persons who have not moved duringthe last five years. The third and fourth clusters are made up of migrants. Along with age, marital status tends to be the primary factor explaining the probability of a personliving alone in Viet Nam. However, the rise in one-person households may be as much related to the gradual changes in marital status, illustrated by delayed marriage, as to the increase in mobility and the relative weakening of traditional family patterns.

In his widely cited article, 1 Amartya Sen examined the high ratios of men to women in several populations and estimated that more than 100 million women were missing worldwide. Sen concluded that “These numbers tell us, quietly, a terrible story of inequality and neglect leading to the excess mortality of women”. Women are missing because of an entrenched preference for sons over daughters in some communities and gender discrimination affecting women throughout their lives. Building on Sen’s approach, we estimated that the number of missing women has steadily risen from 61 million to 126 million between 1970 and 2010. This increase is faster than that of the world population, with China and India accounting for most of the defi cit in women. Two forces drive this tragic increase: postnatal excess female mortality and prenatal sex selection. Excess mortality in girls and adult women has existed throughout human history. We estimate that about 1·8 million excess deaths have occurred each year since 1970 (fi gure). By contrast, prenatal sex selection is a new practice, which grew rapidly after the 1980s when access to inexpensive and reliable ultrasound to establish the sex of a fetus allowed some couples to resort to sex-selective abortions. By 2010, the annual number of girls missing at birth reached 1·7 million worldwide. Nowadays, prenatal sex selection contributes as much as excess mortality to the number of newly missing women. Our projections from 2010 to 2050 expect the worldwide number of missing women to rise for two more decades before peaking at 150 million in 2035. The main driver is a future rise in excess deaths, in part owing to population ageing. Overall, and particularly in India and China, prenatal sex selection is expected to decline, but it could well rise elsewhere as sex-selective technology and low fertility spread in other populations with a staunch preference for sons. Policy makers are searching for means to reduce gender discrimination and raise the value parents place on female children. Although research to identify interventions is underway, eff ective solutions are elusive.

Sex-based discrimination has resulted in severe demographic imbalances between males and females, culminating in a large number of “missing women” in several countries around the world. We provide new estimates and projections of the number of missing females and of the roles played by prenatal and postnatal factors in this imbalance. We estimate time series of the number of missing females, the number of excess female deaths, and the number of missing female births for the world and selected countries. Estimates are provided for 1970–2010 and projections are made from 2010 to 2050. We show that the estimates of these different indicators are consistent with one another and account for the dynamics of the population of missing females over time. We conclude that the number of missing females has steadily risen in the past decades, reaching 126 million in 2010, and the number is expected to peak at 150 million in 2035. Excess mortality was the dominant cause of missing females in the past, and this is expected to remain the case in future decades in spite of the recent rise of prenatal sex selection. The annual number of newly missing females reached 3.4 million in 2010 and is expected to remain above 3 million every year until 2050.

The recent 50 years have been characterized by an increasing proportion of men in the world's population. In addition to excess female mortality, this rise has been caused by the emergence of prenatal sex selection in Asia and Eastern Europe and has resulted in millions of missing girls. Among all preconditions such as the rise in sex selection technology and the rapid decline of fertility, the preference for sons is at the core of this demographic masculinization and only when it dies out will sex ratio come back to normalcy.

Within the context of demographic heterogeneity this article seeks to update knowledge on fertility levels in India and to extend understanding of the mechanisms behind regional variations. The authors present the results of a new estimation procedure to reconstruct the Indian fertility transition and describe some of its spatial and statistical properties. Rather than test hypotheses on fertility-economy-society linkages through an econometric model the authors focus on the spatial structuring of reproductive behavior in India: fertility is examined as a regionalized variable that is a variable that is assumed to be spatially continuous. As their maps suggest and the geostatistical analysis demonstrates spatial variations of fertility in India are far from random a fact that has potentially significant implications for the interpretation of fertility decline. Specifically the authors suggest that preoccupation with the effect on fertility of factors that are poorly correlated with spatial location such as family planning campaigns or structural transformations of the economy may have concealed the progression of fertility change through diffusion processes at the microlevel. (excerpt modified)

This paper is based on fieldwork done in 1992–93 in the Senegal River valley, a Sahelian region characterised by heavy out-migration for more than thirty years. As a result of this long history of human displacement, migration has now become a local institution of its own. More recently, the introduction of irrigation in an otherwise drought-prone area seems to have reduced the intensity of the phenomenon, but the momentum gathered by the local institution of migration means that the decrease of migration rates is likely to be very slow. The present analysis borrows some of its basic concepts from the new institutional economics and should therefore be seen as an illustration of how this perspective, quite effective in describing the complexity of social exchanges in rural societies, helps explain various determinants of migration. We will show, for example, that the two types of migration observed (short-term and long-term) respond similarly to common structural and family conditions, and appear to diffe...

Résumé. Les recensements démographiques, introduits en Inde par les Britanniques durant le siècle dernier, ont servi de formidables outils de classement de la société colonisée. Les efforts pour cataloguer les populations indiennes (par caste, tribu, confession, etc.) se sont appuyés sur diverses nomenclatures sociales, empruntées à certaines traditions locales ou confectionnées au fil des enquêtes. Loin de l'indifférence que suscitait souvent l'entreprise démographique coloniale, la mobilisation autour des classements sociaux opérés et publiés par le recensement devait être intense parmi les élites indiennes et mettre ainsi en péril la finalité classificatoire des recensements. Au-delà des chiffres assemblés dans les innombrables volumes du recensement, le projet britannique a donné naissance à un large texte statistique visant à embrasser et à maîtriser la diversité et l'altérité sociologique auxquelles le pouvoir colonial se trouvait confronté. Les ramifications, discursives aussi bien que politiques, de cette taxinomie britannique sont encore visibles aujourd'hui.