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Over the past decades, agricultural intensification and climate change have led to vegetation shifts in Europe. However, these impacts are often studied using meta-analyses at large scales, or using taxonomic diversity. Functional trade-offs linking traits responding to climate and farming practices are rarely analyzed, especially on large-scale empirical studies. Here we used a standardized yearly monitoring effort of agricultural field margin flora at the national scale to assess the spatio-temporal response of diversity and functional traits to climatic and agricultural variations. We examined temporal trends in climate, agricultural practices, plant species richness, and trait community-weighted means and variances across 555 sites in France between 2013 and 2021. We found that temperatures have increased while soil moisture has decreased, reflecting current climate change, whereas the intensity of agricultural practices did not show clear temporal trends over the past decade. Changes in plant communities were noticeable, especially as they relate to climate change, while the impact of agricultural practices was limited and mainly exerted through field margin management and to a lesser extent, fertilization. Mediterranean sites, vineyards and perennial species demonstrated reduced response to climatic variations. Our findings suggest that species adapted to climate change (including Mediterranean species) have increased in proportion and are spreading northward. Importantly, we identified functional trade-offs suggesting that these species are also the most vulnerable to intensive agricultural practices. We put these results into the conceptual framework of Grime’s CSR triangle and suggest that the convergence of climate change and the maintenance of a highly intensive agriculture could carry a risk of abrupt declines in floristic diversity of field margins, a concern that merits further attention.

In recent decades, agricultural intensification has led to a strong decline in biodiversity. Field margins are defined as the uncultivated herbaceous vegetation strip located between the cropland and an adjacent habitat. Field margins act as shelters and dispersal corridors for biodiversity in highly disturbed landscapes, and are critical to the maintenance of ecosystem services. However, they are also impacted by agricultural practices in neighbouring fields. Agricultural impacts are often studied at field to landscape scales, and rarely include national spatial extents. One of the challenges in large- scale studies is the lack of standardized monitoring schemes including both biodiversity and accurate estimation of agricultural practices. Here, we take advantage of a national monitoring scheme in 462 sites in France, to assess the effects of agricultural practices on field margin flora at different extents and resolutions. We used spatial simultaneous autoregressive and generalized dissimilarity models to assess the response of plant richness and composition to climatic, soil and landscape conditions, and to agricultural (fertilization, herbicides) and margin management drivers. Analyses were repeated at the site-level, 40 and 75 km resolutions, and at regional and national extents. We found that the impact of agricultural practices on species richness was important at the site-level, whereas climate and crop diversity were important at the 75 km resolution. It was the opposite for compositional variations, with climate being more important at the site-level, and fertilization and crop diversity at the coarsest resolution. There was a strong variation in the variance explained by models among regions, but climate effects were weaker within biogeographic units compared to the national level. Regional analyses revealed interactions between local and regional effects suggesting that specific agricultural practices have contrasting impacts depending on the regional context. To efficiently conserve biodiversity, we therefore suggest implementing an agricultural regulatory framework adapted to each region.

The assessment of population vulnerability under climate change is crucial for planning conservation as well as for ensuring food security. Coffea canephora is, in its native habitat, an understorey tree that is mainly distributed in the lowland rainforests of tropical Africa. Also known as Robusta, its commercial value constitutes a significant revenue for many human populations in tropical countries. Comparing ecological and genomic vulnerabilities within the species' native range can provide valuable insights about habitat loss and the species' adaptive potential, allowing to identify genotypes that may act as a resource for varietal improvement. By applying species distribution models, we assessed ecological vulnerability as the decrease in climatic suitability under future climatic conditions from 492 occurrences. We then quantified genomic vulnerability (or risk of maladaptation) as the allelic composition change required to keep pace with predicted climate change. Genomic vulnerability was estimated from genomic environmental correlations throughout the native range. Suitable habitat was predicted to diminish to half its size by 2050, with populations near coastlines and around the Congo River being the most vulnerable. Whole-genome sequencing revealed 165 candidate SNPs associated with climatic adaptation in C. canephora, which were located in genes involved in plant response to biotic and abiotic stressors. Genomic vulnerability was higher for populations in West Africa and in the region at the border between DRC and Uganda. Despite an overall low correlation between genomic and ecological vulnerability at broad scale, these two components of vulnerability overlap spatially in ways that may become damaging. Genomic vulnerability was estimated to be 23% higher in populations where habitat will be lost in 2050 compared to regions where habitat will remain suitable. These results highlight how ecological and genomic vulnerabilities are relevant when planning on how to cope with climate change regarding an economically important species.

International audience; Species distribution models (SDMs) have become one of the major predictive tools in ecology. However, multiple methodological choices are required during the modelling process, some of which may have a large impact on forecasting results. In this context, virtual species, i.e. the use of simulations involving a fictitious species for which we have perfect knowledge of its occurrence-environment relationships and other relevant characteristics, have become increasingly popular to test SDMs. This approach provides for a simple virtual ecologist framework under which to test model properties, as well as the effects of the different methodological choices, and allows teasing out the effects of targeted factors with great certainty. This simplification is therefore very useful in setting up modelling standards and best practice principles. As a result, numerous virtual species studies have been published over the last decade. The topics covered include differences in performance between statistical models, effects of sample size, choice of threshold values, methods to generate pseudo-absences for presence-only data, among many others. These simulations have therefore already made a great contribution to setting best modelling practices in SDMs. Recent software developments have greatly facilitated the simulation of virtual species, with at least three different packages published to that effect. However, the simulation procedure has not been homogeneous, which introduces some subtleties in the interpretation of results, as well as differences across simulation packages. Here we 1) review the main contributions of the virtual species approach in the SDM literature; 2) compare the major virtual species simulation approaches and software packages; and 3) propose a set of recommendations for best simulation practices in future virtual species studies in the context of SDMs.

WOS:000483602900019; International audience; Liu et al. (2018) used a virtual species approach to test the effects of outliers on species distribution models. In their simulations, they applied a threshold value over the simulated suitabilities to generate the species distributions, suggesting that using a probabilistic simulation approach would have been more complex and yield the same results. Here, we argue that using a probabilistic approach is not necessarily more complex and may significantly change results. Although the threshold approach may be justified under limited circumstances, the probabilistic approach has multiple advantages. First, it is in line with ecological theory, which largely assumes non-threshold responses. Second, it is more general, as it includes the threshold as a limiting case. Third, it allows a better separation of the relevant intervening factors that influence model performance. Therefore, we argue that the probabilistic simulation approach should be used as a general standard in virtual species studies.

International audience; Despite increasing awareness of issues affecting inclusivity, equity and diversity, change has been slow in science and academia, and gender disparities remain significant. Biogeography has not escaped this pattern. Here, we present a virtual issue compiling some of the most cited papers led by women that have been published in the Journal of Biogeography since 2009 in an effort to equalize visibility of women's influential work. We summarize leading gender disparities and their potential underlying causes, and present our motivation and methodology in compiling this issue. We further provide a blog, website and social media links to highlight the research of the authors whose work is showcased here. Highlighting influential contributions by women biogeographers is a small step towards equalizing visibility across genders. We hope that this virtual issue will also contribute in some way to creating a greater sense of belonging for women biogeographers.

While large-scale monitoring, early detection and control can greatly reduce desert locust invasions, global change is most likely to affect conditions that promote the transition from solitary to gregarious populations. Although climate change scenarios point to an increase in aridity and further desertification in vast areas of Africa, some regions that have been at the origin of past outbreaks are likely to see a reversed trend (i.e., increase in frequency and intensity of rains), potentially favoring the formation of swarms. This makes reinforcing early detection and keeping a sustained monitoring effort in place even more important under climate change.

The discriminating capacity (i.e., ability to correctly classify presences and absences) of species distribution models (SDMs) is commonly evaluated with metrics such as the Area Under the Receiving Operating Characteristic Curve, the Kappa statistic and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). AUC and Kappa have been repeatedly criticised, but the TSS has fared relatively well since its introduction, mainly because it has been considered as independent of prevalence. In addition, discrimination metrics have been contested because they should be calculated on presence-absence data, but are often used on presence-only or presence-background data. With examples and simulations, we demonstrate here that TSS is misleading because of its dependence on prevalence. We then introduce an alternative set of metrics −based on similarity indices− that represents a theoretical solution to evaluate model discrimination capacity. In the ideal situation where species and sample prevalence (respectively, true and sampled ratio of sites occupied by species) are equal −corresponding to a perfectly random presence-absence sampling or evaluation of virtual species, similarity indices are appropriate to evaluate model discrimination capacity. In situations where sample and species prevalence are not equal −corresponding to non-random presence-absence samplings or presence-background samplings, similarity metrics can correctly evaluate discrimination capacity provided that an estimate of species prevalence can be obtained. However, estimates of species prevalence are challenging to obtain for presence-absence schemes and unlikely to be possible for presence-pseudoabsence schemes. Our recommendations are therefore to use similarity metrics in the specific case of virtual species, and, until a robust framework to estimate species prevalence is developed, focus on reliability metrics in other cases.

This article has been peer-reviewed and recommended by Peer Community in Evolutionary Biology.; International audience; Dating population divergence within species from molecular data and relating such dating to climatic and biogeographic changes is not trivial. Yet it can help formulating evolutionary hypotheses regarding local adaptation and future responses to changing environments. Key issues include statistical selection of a demographic and historical scenario among a set of possible scenarios, and estimation of the parameter(s) of interest under the chosen scenario. Such inferences greatly benefit from new statistical approaches including approximate Bayesian computation - Random Forest (ABC-RF), the latter providing reliable inference at a low computational cost, with the possibility to take into account prior knowledge on both biogeographical history and genetic markers. Here, we used ABC-RF, including independent information on evolutionary rate and pattern at microsatellite markers, to decipher the evolutionary history of the African arid-adapted pest locust, Schistocerca gregaria . We found that the evolutionary processes that have shaped the present geographical distribution of the species in two disjoint northern and southern regions of Africa were recent, dating back 2.6 Ky (90% CI: 0.9 – 6.6 Ky). ABC-RF inferences also supported a southern colonization of Africa from a low number of founders of northern origin. The inferred divergence history is better explained by the peculiar biology of S. gregaria , which involves a density-dependent swarming phase with some exceptional spectacular migrations, rather than a continuous colonization resulting from the continental expansion of open vegetation habitats during more ancient Quaternary glacial climatic episodes.

International audience; The relative contribution of ecological processes in shaping metacommunity dynamics inheavily managed landscapes is still unclear. Here we used two complementary approachesto disentangle the role of environment and spatial effect in farmland bird community assemblyin an intensive agro-ecosystem. We hypothesized that the interaction between habitatpatches and dispersal should play a major role in such unstable and unpredictable environments.First, we used a metacommunity patterns analysis to characterize species co-occurrencesand identify the main drivers of community assembly; secondly, variation partitioningwas used to disentangle environmental and geographical factors (such as dispersal limitation)on community structure and composition. We used high spatial resolution data on birdcommunity structure and composition distributed among 260 plots in an agricultural landscape.Species were partitioned into functional classes, and point count stations were classifiedaccording to landscape characteristics before applying metacommunity andpartitioning analyses within each. Overall we could explain around 20% of the variance inspecies composition in our system, revealing that stochasticity remains very important atthis scale. However, this proportion varies depending on the scale of analysis, and revealspotentially important contributions of environmental filtering and dispersal. These conclusionsare further reinforced when the analysis was deconstructed by bird functional classesor by landscape habitat classes, underlining trait-related filters, thus reinforcing the idea thatwooded areas in these agroecosystems may represent important sources for a specificgroup of bird species. Our analysis shows that deconstructing the species assemblages intoseparate functional groups and types of landscapes, along with a combination of analysisstrategies, can help in understanding the mechanisms driving community assembly.

The desert locust is an agricultural pest that is able to switch from a harmless solitarious stage, during recession periods, to swarms of gregarious individuals that disperse long distances and affect areas from western Africa to India during outbreak periods. Large outbreaks have been recorded through centuries, and the Food and Agriculture Organization keeps a long-term, large-scale monitoring survey database in the area. However, there is also a much less known subspecies that occupies a limited area in Southern Africa. We used large-scale climatic and occurrence data of the solitarious phase of each subspecies during recession periods to understand whether both subspecies climatic niches differ from each other, what is the current potential geographical distribution of each subspecies, and how climate change is likely to shift their potential distribution with respect to current conditions. We evaluated whether subspecies are significantly specialized along available climate gradients by using null models of background climatic differences within and between southern and northern ranges and applying niche similarity and niche equivalency tests. The results point to climatic niche conservatism between the two clades. We complemented this analysis with species distribution modeling to characterize current solitarious distributions and forecast potential recession range shifts under two extreme climate change scenarios at the 2050 and 2090 time horizon. Projections suggest that, at a global scale, the northern clade could contract its solitarious recession range, while the southern clade is likely to expand its recession range. However, local expansions were also predicted in the northern clade, in particular in southern and northern margins of the current geographical distribution. In conclusion, monitoring and management practices should remain in place in northern Africa, while in Southern Africa the potential for the subspecies to pose a threat in the future should be investigated more closely.

The North Atlantic right whale (NARW) (Eubalaena glacialis) is one of the world's most threatened whales. It came close to extinction after nearly a millennium of exploitation and currently persists as a population of only approximately 500 individuals. Setting appropriate conservation targets for this species requires an understanding of its historical population size, as a baseline for measuring levels of depletion and progress toward recovery. This is made difficult by the scarcity of records over this species' long whaling history. We sought to estimate the preexploitation population size of the North Atlantic right whale and understand how this species was distributed across its range. We used a spatially explicit data set on historical catches of North Pacific right whales (NPRWs) (Eubalaena japonica) to model the relationship between right whale relative density and the environment during the summer feeding season. Assuming the 2 right whale species select similar environments, we projected this model to the North Atlantic to predict how the relative abundance of NARWs varied across their range. We calibrated these relative abundances with estimates of the NPRW total prewhaling population size to obtain high and low estimates for the overall NARW population size prior to exploitation. The model predicted 9,075-21,328 right whales in the North Atlantic. The current NARW population is thus

Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-11T17:21:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2018-10-01 Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) The Cerrado is one of the most threatened biomes in Brazil, with little spatial representation within the Protected Area network. Recently, proposed conservation plans worldwide have advocated for the use of multiple biodiversity facets to protect unique evolutionary and functional processes. Our aim was to identify areas with high biodiversity representativeness applying this multifaceted perspective, and propose conservation plans based on the joint analysis of taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity. We used a database of the Brazilian National Program for Research in Biodiversity, which employs a standard protocol for sampling tadpoles. The Cerrado database includes samples from 165 water bodies spread over 15 localities, covering most of the Central Brazilian Cerrado. We selected four morphological traits to calculate functional diversity and used a dated phylogeny available in the literature to compute phylogenetic diversity. Our approach selected five priority areas for conservation, one of which is already protected. Our results highlighted the importance of four new areas which show high values of diversity, including original lineages and traits, and urgently need conservation prioritization. Furthermore, unlike the current protected network, our approach performs significantly better than random at protecting sites with high phylogenetic and functional diversity. We therefore discuss how the multifaceted indices considered can help protect key ecosystem functions and evolutionary legacy in anuran communities of the Brazilian Cerrado. Departamento de Zoologia e Botânica Instituto de Biociências Letras e Ciências Exatas (Ibilce) Universidade Estadual Paulista UNESP, Câmpus São José do Rio Preto CBGP INRA CIRAD IRD Montpellier SupAgro University of Montpellier Departamento de Biologia Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Área de Ecologia Post-graduation course in Animal Biology Universidade Estadual Paulista UNESP, Câmpus São José do Rio Preto Departamento de Zoologia e Botânica Instituto de Biociências Letras e Ciências Exatas (Ibilce) Universidade Estadual Paulista UNESP, Câmpus São José do Rio Preto Post-graduation course in Animal Biology Universidade Estadual Paulista UNESP, Câmpus São José do Rio Preto FAPESP: 2010/52321-7 FAPESP: 2013/26101-8 CNPq: 302328/2017-3 CNPq: 563075/2010-4

virtualspecies is a freely available package for R designed to generate virtual species distributions, a procedure increasingly used in ecology to improve species distribution models. This package combines the existing methodological approaches with the objective of generating virtual species distributions with increased ecological realism. The package includes 1) generating the probability of occurrence of a virtual species from a spatial set of environmental conditions (i.e. environmental suitability), with two different approaches; 2) converting the environmental suitability into presence-absence with a probabilistic approach; 3) introducing dispersal limitations in the realised virtual species distributions and 4) sampling occurrences with different biases in the sampling procedure. The package was designed to be extremely flexible, to allow users to simulate their own defined species-environment relationships, as well as to provide a fine control over every simulation parameter. The package also includes a function to generate random virtual species distributions. We provide a simple example in this paper showing how increasing ecological realism of the virtual species impacts the predictive performance of species distribution models. We expect that this new package will be valuable to researchers willing to test techniques and protocols of species distribution models as well as various biogeographical hypotheses.

online version; Ecuador has some of the greatest biodiversity in the world, sheltering global biodiversity hotspots in lowland and mountain regions. Climate change will likely have a major effect on these regions, but the consequences for faunal diversity and conservation remain unclear. To address this issue, we used an ensemble of eight species distribution models to predict future shifts and identify areas of high changes in species richness and species turnover for 201 mammals. We projected the distributions using two different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon and contrasted two extreme dispersal scenarios (no dispersal vs. full dispersal). Our results showed extended distributional shifts all over the country. For most groups, our results predicted that the current diversity of mammals in Ecuador would decrease significantly under all climate change scenarios and dispersal assumptions. The Northern Andes and the Amazonian region would remain diversity hotspots but with a significant decrease in the number of species. All predictions, including the most conservative scenarios in terms of dispersal and climate change, predicted major changes in the distribution of mammalian species diversity in Ecuador. Primates might be the most severely affected because they would have fewer suitable areas, compared with other mammals. Our work emphasizes the need for sound conservation strategies in Ecuador to mitigate the effects of climate change

Aim Identifying the multifaceted biodiversity hotspots for marine mammals and their spatial overlap with human threats at the global scale. Location World-wide. Methods We compiled a functional trait database for 121 species of marine mammals characterized by 14 functional traits grouped into five categories. We estimated marine mammal species richness (SR) as well as functional (FD) and phylogenetic diversity (PD) per grid cell (1° × 1°) using the FRic index (a measure of trait diversity as the volume of functional space occupied by the species present in an assemblage) and the PD index (the amount of evolutionary history represented by a set of species), respectively. Finally, we assessed the spatial congruence of these three facets of biodiversity hotspots (defined as 2.5% and 5% of the highest values of SR, FD and PD) with human threats at the global scale. Results We showed that the FRic index was weakly correlated with both SR and the PD index. Specifically, SR and FRic displayed a triangular relationship, that is, increasing variability in FRic along the species richness gradient. We also observed a striking lack of spatial congruence (

International audience; Climate warming affects biodiversity distribution across all ecosystems. However, beyond changes in species richness, impacts on other biodiversity components are still overlooked, particularly in the marine realm. Here we forecasted the potential effect of climate warming on the phylogenetic and functional components of coastal Mediterranean fish biodiversity. To do so, we used species distribution models to project the potential distribution of 230 coastal fish species by the end of the 21st century based on the IPCC A2 scenario implemented with the Mediterranean climatic model NEMOMED8. From these projections, we assessed the changes in phylogenetic (PD) and functional diversity (FD) of fish assemblages at multiple spatial scales using a dated molecular phylogeny and an extensive functional trait database. At the scale of the entire Mediterranean Sea, the projected extinctions of 40 coastal fish species would lead to a concomitant erosion of PD and FD (13.6 and 3%, respectively). However, a null model revealed that species loss at this scale would not lead to a disproportionate erosion of PD and FD. Similar results were found when considering fish assemblages at the grid cell scale. Indeed, at this scale, the projected changes in species richness would lead to unexpected losses of PD and FD for localized and small areas only. A disproportionate erosion of PD under climate warming was only forecasted when analysing fish assemblages at an intermediate spatial scale, namely the Mediterranean marine ecoregions. Overall, our results emphasize the importance of considering multiple spatial scales when assessing potential impacts of climate warming on the multiple components marine biodiversity.

François Guilhaumon [et al.], Aim: To assess gaps in the representation of taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity among coastal fishes in Mediterranean marine-protected areas (MPAs)., Location: Mediterranean Sea, Methods: We first assessed gaps in the taxonomic representation of the 340 coastal fish species in Mediterranean MPAs, with representation targets (the species range proportion to be covered by MPAs) set to be inversely proportional to species’ range sizes. We then asked whether MPAs favoured representation of phylogenetically and functionally more distinct species or whether there was a tendency to favour less distinctive ones. We finally evaluated the overall conservation effectiveness of the MPAs using a metric that integrates species’ phylogenetic and functional relationships and targets achievement. The effectiveness of the MPA system at protecting biodiversity was assessed by comparison of its achievements against a null model obtained by siting current MPAs at random over the study area., Results: Among the coastal fish species analysed, 16 species were not covered by any MPA. All the remaining species only partially achieved the pre-defined representation target. The current MPA system missed fewer species than expected from siting MPAs at random. However, c. 70% of the species did not achieve better protection in the current MPAs than expected from siting MPAs at random. Functional and evolutionary distinctiveness were weakly correlated with target achievement. The observed coverage of taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity was not different or lower than expected from siting MPAs at random., Main conclusions: The Mediterranean MPA system falls short in meeting conservation targets for coastal fish taxonomic diversity, phylogenetic diversity and functional diversity. Mediterranean MPAs do not encompass more biodiversity than expected by chance. This study reveals multiple ongoing challenges and calls for regional collaboration for the extension of the Mediterranean system of MPAs to meet international commitments and reduce the ongoing loss of marine biodiversity., M.B.A. also acknowledges the Integrated Program of IC&DT Call No. 1/SAESCTN/ALENT-07-0224-FEDER-001755, the Spanish Research Council (CSIC) and the Danish NSF for support of his research.

Aim We assessed the temporal trends of taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversities in the French avifauna over the last two decades. Additionally, we investigated whether and how this multifaceted approach to biodiversity dynamics can reveal an increasing similarity of local assemblages in terms of species,traits and/or lineages. Location France. Methods We analysed a large-scale dataset that recorded annual changes in the abundance of 116 breeding birds in France between 1989 and 2012. We decomposed and analysed the spatio-temporal dynamics of taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversities and each of their α-,β- andγ-components.We also calculated the trend in the mean specialization of bird communities to track the relative success of specialist versus generalist species within communities during the same period. Results We found large variation within and among the temporal trends of each biodiversity facet. On average, we found a marked increase in species and phylogenetic diversity over the period considered, but no particular trend was found for functional diversity. Conversely, changes in β-diversities for the three facets were characterized by independent and nonlinear trends. We also found a general increase in the local occurrence and abundance of generalist species within local communities. Main conclusions These results highlight a relative asynchrony of the different biodiversity facets occurring at large spatial scales. We show why a multifaceted approach to biodiversity dynamics is needed to better describe and understand changes in community composition in macroecology and conservation biogeography.

Species distribution models (SDM) have often been used to predict the potential ranges of introduced species and prioritize management strategies. However, this approach assumes equilibrium between occurrences and environmental gradients, an assumption which is violated during the invasion process, where many suitable sites are empty because the species has not yet reached them. Here we considered the invasive ladybird Harmonia axyridis as a case study to show the benefits of using a dynamic colonization-extinction model that does not assume equilibrium. We used a multi-year occupancy model incorporating environmental, anthropogenic and neighborhood effects, to identify factors that explained spreading variation of this species in France from 2004, when only a few occupied sites were detected, to 2011. We found that anthropogenic factors (urbanization, agriculture, vineyards, and presence/absence of highways) explained more variation in the diffusion process than environmental factors (winter and summer temperatures, wind-speed, and rainfall). The surface of urbanization was the major anthropogenic factor increasing the probability of colonization. The average summer temperature was the main environmental factor affecting colonization, with a negative effect when high or low. The neighborhood effect revealed that colonization was mostly influenced by contributions coming from a radius of 24 km around the focal cell. The contribution of neighborhood decreases over time, suggesting that H. axyridis is reaching its equilibrium in France. This is confirmed by the small discrepancy observed between the performance of our approach and a SDM approach when predicting a single year occupancy pattern at the end of the study period. Our approach has the advantage of explicitly modelling the state of the biological system during the spatial expansion and identifying colonization constraints. This allows managers to explore the effect of different actions on the system at key moments of the invasion process, hence providing a powerful approach to prioritize management strategies.

International audience; Simulations of virtual species (i.e. species for which the environment–occupancy relationships are known) are increasingly being used to test the effects of different aspects of modelling and sampling strategy on performance of species distribution models (SDMs). Here we discuss an important step of the simulation process: the translation of simulated probabilities of occurrence into patterns of presence and absence. Often a threshold strategy is used to generate virtual occurrences, where presence always occurs above a specific simulated probability value and never below. This procedure effectively translates any shape of simulated species response into a threshold one and eliminates any stochasticity from the species occupancy pattern. We argue that a probabilistic approach should be preferred instead because the threshold response can be treated as a particular case within this framework. This also allows one to address questions relating to the shape of functional responses and avoids convergence issues with some of the most common SDMs. Furthermore, threshold- based virtual species studies generate over-optimistic performance measures that lack classification error or incorporate error from a mixture of sampling and modelling choices. Incorrect use of a threshold approach can have significant consequences for the practising biogeographer. For example, low model performance may be interpreted as due to sample bias or poor model choice, rather than being related to fundamental biological responses to environmental gradients. We exemplify these shortcomings with a case study where we compare results from threshold and probabilistic simulation approaches.

The aim of this study was to characterize environmental differentiation of lineages within Rhabdomys and provide hypotheses regarding potential areas of contact between them in the Southern African subregion, including the Republic of South Africa, Lesotho, and Namibia. Records of Rhabdomys taxa across the study region were compiled and georeferenced from the literature, museum records, and field expeditions. Presence records were summarized within a 10 × 10 km grid covering the study area. Environmental information regarding climate, topography, land use, and vegetation productivity was gathered at the same resolution. Multivariate statistics were used to characterize the current environmental niche and distribution of the whole genus as well as of three mitochondrial lineages known to occur in southern Africa. Distribution modeling was carried out using MAXENT in order to generate hypotheses regarding current distribution of each taxa and their potential contact zones. Results indicate that the two species within Rhabdomys appear to have differentiated across the precipitation/temperature gradient present in the region from east to west. R. dilectus occupies the wettest areas in eastern southern Africa, while R. pumilio occupies the warmer and drier regions in the west, but also penetrates in the more mesic central part of the region. We provide further evidence of environmental differentiation within two lineages of R. dilectus. Contact zones between lineages appear to occur in areas of strong environmental gradients and topographic complexity, such as the transition zones between major biomes and the escarpment area where a sharp altitudinal gradient separates coastal and plateau areas, but also within more homogeneous areas such as within grassland and savannah biomes. Our results indicate that Rhabdomys may be more specialized than previously thought when considering current knowledge regarding mitochondrial lineages. The genus appears to have differentiated along two major environmental axes in the study region, but results also suggest dispersal limitations and biological interactions having a role in limiting current distribution boundaries. Furthermore, the projection of the potential geographic distribution of the different lineages suggests several contact zones that may be interesting study fields for understanding the interplay between ecological and evolutionary processes during speciation.

International audience; Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used in ecology, biogeography, and conservation. Although ecological theory predicts that species occupancy is dynamic, the outputs of SDMs are generally converted into a single occurrence map, and model performance is evaluated in terms of success to predict presences and absences. The aim of this study was to characterize the effects of a gradual response in species occupancy to environmental gradients into the performance of SDMs. First we outline guidelines for the appropriate simulation of artificial species that allows controlling for gradualism and prevalence in the occupancy patterns over an environmental gradient. Second, we derive theoretical expected values for success measures based on presence-absence predictions (AUC, Kappa, sensitivity and specificity). And finally we used artificial species to exemplify and test the effect of a gradual probabilistic occupancy response to environmental gradients on SDM performance. Our results show that when a species responds gradually to an environmental gradient, conventional measures of SDM predictive success based on presence-absence cannot be expected to attain currently accepted performance values considered as good, even for a model that recovers perfectly well the true probability of occurrence. A gradual response imposes a theoretical expected value for these measures of performance that can be calculated from the species properties. However, irrespective of the statistical modeling strategy used and of how gradual the species response is, one can recover the true probability of occurrence as a function of environmental variables provided that species and sample prevalence are similar. Therefore, model performance based on presence-absence should be judged against the theoretical expected value rather than to absolute values currently in use such as AUC > 0.8. Overall, we advocate for a wider use of the probability of occurrence and emphasize the need for further technical developments in this sense.

Aim To test how far can macroecological hypotheses relating diversity to environmental factors be extrapolated to functional and phylogenetic diversities, i.e. to the extent to which functional traits and evolutionary backgrounds vary among species in a community or region. We use a spatial partitioning of diversity where regional or γ-diversity is calculated by aggregating information on local communities, local or α-diversity corresponds to diversity in one locality, and turnover or β-diversity corresponds to the average turnover between localities and the region. Location France. Methods We used the Rao quadratic entropy decomposition of diversity to calculate local, regional and turnover diversity for each of three diversity facets (taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional) in breeding bird communities of France. Spatial autoregressive models and partial regression analyses were used to analyse the relationships between each diversity facet and environmental gradients (climate and land use). Results Changes in γ-diversity are driven by changes in both α- and β-diversity. Low levels of human impact generally favour all three facets of regional diversity and heterogeneous landscapes usually harbour higher β-diversity in the three facets of diversity, although functional and phylogenetic turnover show some relationships in the opposite direction. Spatial and environmental factors explain a large percentage of the variation in the three diversity facets (>60%), and this is especially true for phylogenetic diversity. In all cases, spatial structure plays a preponderant role in explaining diversity gradients, suggesting an important role for dispersal limitations in structuring diversity at different spatial scales. Main conclusions Our results generally support the idea that hypotheses that have previously been applied to taxonomic diversity, both at local and regional scales, can be extended to phylogenetic and functional diversity. Specifically, changes in regional diversity are the result of changes in both local and turnover diversity, some environmental conditions such as human development have a great impact on diversity levels, and heterogeneous landscapes tend to have higher diversity levels. Interestingly, differences between diversity facets could potentially provide further insights into how large- and small-scale ecological processes interact at the onset of macroecological patterns.

A methodology for partitioning of biodiversity into a, b and g components has long been debated, resulting in different mathematical frameworks. Recently, use of the Rao quadratic entropy index has been advocated since it allows comparison of various facets of diversity (e.g. taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional) within the same mathematical framework. However, if not well implemented, the Rao index can easily yield biologically meaningless results and lead into a mathematical labyrinth. As a practical guideline for ecologists, we present a critical synthesis of diverging implementations of the index in the recent literature and a new extension of the index for measuring b-diversity. First, we detail correct computation of the index that needs to be applied in order not to obtain negative b-diversity values, which are ecologically unacceptable, and elucidate the main approaches to calculate the Rao quadratic entropy at different spatial scales. Then, we emphasize that, similar to other entropy measures, the Rao index often produces lower-than-expected b-diversity values. To solve this, we extend a correction based on equivalent numbers, as proposed by Jost (2007), to the Rao index. We further show that this correction can be applied to additive partitioning of diversity and not only its multiplicative form. These developments around the Rao index open up an exciting avenue to develop an estimator of turnover diversity across different environmental and temporal scales, allowing meaningful comparisons of partitioning across species, phylogenetic and functional diversities within the same mathematical framework. We also propose a set of R functions, based on existing developments, which perform different key computations to apply this framework in biodiversity science.

Aim To test statistical models used to predict species distributions under different shapes of occurrence-environment relationship. We addressed three questions: (1) Is there a statistical technique that has a consistently higher predictive ability than others for all kinds of relationships? (2) How does species prevalence influence the relative performance of models? (3) When an automated stepwise selection procedure is used, does it improve predictive modelling, and are the relevant variables being selected? Location We used environmental data from a real landscape, the state of California, and simulated species distributions within this landscape. Methods Eighteen artificial species were generated, which varied in their occurrence response to the environmental gradients considered (random, linear, Gaussian, threshold or mixed), in the interaction of those factors (no interaction vs. multiplicative), and on their prevalence (50% vs. 5%). The landscape was then randomly sampled with a large (n = 2000) or small (n = 150) sample size, and the predictive ability of each statistical approach was assessed by comparing the true and predicted distributions using five different indexes of performance (area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve, Kappa, correlation between true and predictive probability of occurrence, sensitivity and specificity). We compared generalized additive models (GAM) with and without flexible degrees of freedom, logistic regressions (general linear models, GLM) with and without variable selection, classification trees, and the genetic algorithm for rule-set production (GARP). Results Species with threshold and mixed responses, additive environmental effects, and high prevalence generated better predictions than did other species for all statistical models. In general, GAM outperforms all other strategies, although differences with GLM are usually not significant. The two variable-selection strategies presented here did not discriminate successfully between truly causal factors and correlated environmental variables. Main conclusions Based on our analyses, we recommend the use of GAM or GLM over classification trees or GARP, and the specification of any suspected interaction terms between predictors. An expert-based variable selection procedure was preferable to the automated procedures used here. Finally, for low-prevalence species, variability in model performance is both very high and sample-dependent. This suggests that distribution models for species with low prevalence can be improved through targeted sampling.

International audience; Aim To obtain a plausible hypothesis for the historical distribution of North Atlantic right whales (NARWs) (Eubalaena glacialis) in their summer feeding grounds. Previously widespread in the North Atlantic, after centuries of hunting, these whales survive as a small population off eastern North America. Because their exploitation began before formal records started, information about their historical distribution is fragmentary. Location North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans. Methods We linked historical records of North Pacific right whales (E.japonica; from 19th-century American whaling logbooks) with oceanographic data to generate a species distribution model. Assuming that the two species have similar environmental preferences, the model was projected into the North Atlantic to predict environmental suitability for NARWs. The reliability of these predictions was assessed by comparing the model results with historical and recent records in the North Atlantic. Results The model predicts suitable environmental conditions over a wide, mostly offshore band across the North Atlantic. Predictions are well supported by historical and recent records, but discrepancies in some areas indicate lower discriminative ability in coastal, shallow-depth areas, suggesting that this model mainly describes the summer offshore distribution of right whales. Main conclusions Our results suggest that the summer range of the NARW consisted of a relatively narrow band (width c.10 degrees in latitude), extending from the eastern coast of North America to northern Norway, over the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, south of Greenland and Iceland, north of the British Isles and in the Norwegian Sea. These results highlight possibilities for additional research both on the history of exploitation and on the current summer distribution of this species. In particular, better survey coverage of historical whaling grounds could help inform conservation efforts for this endangered species. More generally, this study illustrates the challenges and opportunities in using historical data to understand the original distribution of highly depleted species.

Increasing human pressures and global environmental change may severely affect the diversity of species assemblages and associated ecosystem services. Despite the recent interest in phylogenetic and functional diversity, our knowledge on large spatio-temporal patterns of demersal fish diversity sampled by trawling remains still incomplete, notably in the Mediterranean Sea, one of the most threatened marine regions of the world. We investigated large spatio-temporal diversity patterns by analysing a dataset of 19,886 hauls from 10 to 800 m depth performed annually during the last two decades by standardised scientific bottom trawl field surveys across the Mediterranean Sea, within the MEDITS program. A multicomponent (eight diversity indices) and multi-scale (local assemblages, biogeographic regions to basins) approach indicates that only the two most traditional components (species richness and evenness) were sufficient to reflect patterns in taxonomic, phylogenetic or functional richness and divergence. We also put into question the use of widely computed indices that allow comparing directly taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity within a unique mathematical framework. In addition, demersal fish assemblages sampled by trawl do not follow a continuous decreasing longitudinal/latitudinal diversity gradients (spatial effects explained up to 70.6% of deviance in regression tree and generalised linear models), for any of the indices and spatial scales analysed. Indeed, at both local and regional scales species richness was relatively high in the Iberian region, Malta, the Eastern Ionian and Aegean seas, meanwhile the Adriatic Sea and Cyprus showed a relatively low level. In contrast, evenness as well as taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional divergences did not show regional hotspots. All studied diversity components remained stable over the last two decades. Overall, our results highlight the need to use complementary diversity indices through different spatial scales when developing conservation strategies and defining delimitations for protected areas., SI

Mapping diversity indices, that is estimating values in all locations of a given area from some sampled locations, is central to numerous research and applied fields in ecology. Two approaches are used to map diversity indices without including abiotic or biotic variables: (i) the indirect approach, which consists in estimating each individual species distribution over the area, then stacking the distributions of all species to estimate and map a posteriori the diversity index, (ii) the direct approach, which relies on computing a diversity index in each sampled locations and then to interpolate these values to all locations of the studied area for mapping. For both approaches, we document drawbacks from theoretical and practical viewpoints and argue about the need for adequate interpolation methods. First, we point out that the indirect approach is problematic because of the high proportion of rare species in natural communities. This leads to zero-inflated distributions, which cannot be interpolated using standard statistical approaches. Secondly, the direct approach is inaccurate because diversity indices are not spatially additive, that is the diversity of a studied area (e.g. region) is not the sum of the local diversities. Therefore, the arithmetic variance and some of its derivatives, such as the variogram, are not appropriate to ecologically measure variation in diversity indices. For the direct approach, we propose to consider the β-diversity, which quantifies diversity variations between locations, by the mean of a β-gram within the interpolation procedure. We applied this method, as well as the traditional interpolation methods for comparison purposes on different faunistic and floristic data sets collected from scientific surveys. We considered two common diversity indices, the species richness and the Rao's quadratic entropy, knowing that the above issues are true for complementary species diversity indices as well as those dealing with other biodiversity levels such as genetic diversity. We conclude that none of the approaches provided an accurate mapping of diversity indices and that further methodological developments are still needed. We finally discuss lines of research that may resolve this key issue, dealing with conditional simulations and models taking into account biotic and abiotic explanatory variables.

International audience; Aim We tested the influence of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations and the potential effect of future climate change on Southeast Asian small mammal dis- tributions using two forest-dwelling (Leopoldamys herberti and Leopoldamys sabanus) and one karst (Leopoldamys neilli) endemic rodent species as models.Location Southeast Asia.Methods We used presence–absence data of genetically identified individuals, bioclimatic variables and species distribution modelling techniques to predict potential distributions of the three studied species under current, past [Last Interglacial (LIG) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)] and future conditions. We applied a variety of modelling techniques and then used consensus tech- niques to draw up robust maps of potential distribution ranges at all stages.Results According to our models, these three Leopoldamys species did not experience significant range contraction during the LGM. Our models revealed substantial range contraction during the LIG for L. herberti in northern Indo- china, while its distribution expanded in southern Indochina. Evidence of a southward range expansion during that period was also obtained for L. neilli, whereas L. sabanus remained widely distributed in insular Southeast Asia but experienced a range contraction on the Thai-Malay Peninsula. The two future climate change scenarios used predicted that large climatically suitable areas would still be available in the future for the three species.Main conclusions Our model predictions contradict the well-established hypothesis that Southeast Asian forest-dwelling species were confined to small refugia during the LGM. Moreover, our results suggest that some Southeast Asian taxa may have been distributed in their refugial state during the LIG rather than the LGM. This could be because of vegetation changes that may have occurred at that time as a result of the increased seasonality observed dur- ing the LIG. These Pleistocene refugia may have been localized in northern Indochina but our study also revealed that southern Indochina could provide major potential refugia.

We characterize the bird assemblage of an isolated relict temperaterainforest (Santa Ines) in terms of its structure, composition anddynamics. The relict character and long-term isolation of this forest remnant,immersed in a matrix of semiarid scrub, provide a natural experiment to assessthe consequences of long-term isolation and forest area reduction for temperatebird species. Bird surveys were conducted in a forest fragment and thesurrounding scrub matrix between April 1999 (austral autumn) and October 2000(austral spring) on a seasonal basis. Within the forest fragment wedistinguished two microhabitat types: creeks and areas far from creeks (i.e.slopes). A total of 36 species were recorded in the study site, of which 21were inside the relict forest. Highest bird abundance and richness wererecorded during winter and spring, and these were always higher in creek plotsrather than slope plots. Comparisons between this assemblage and thosedistributed in the continuous temperate forest (located more than 900km southwards) indicate that this bird assemblage shares moresimilarities, with regard to bird species composition, to southern temperateforest localities and to other relict forests, than to nearer scrub habitats.However, there are eight species, endemic to temperate forests in southern SouthAmerica, missing from our system. In this regard, our analyses indicate thatthese eight endemic species should be of great conservation concern and willlikely be the ones that will go extinct first if the fragmentation of thetemperate forest continues.

Aim Metacommunity theories attribute different relative degrees of importance to dispersal, environmental filtering, biotic interactions and stochastic processes in community assembly, but the role of spatial scale remains uncertain. Here we used two complementary statistical tools to test: (1) whether or not the patterns of community structure and environmental influences are consistent across resolutions; and (2) whether and how the joint use of two fundamentally different statistical approaches provides a complementary interpretation of results. Location Grassland plants in the French Alps. Methods We used two approaches across five spatial resolutions (ranging from 1 km × 1 km to 30 km × 30 km): variance partitioning, and analysis of metacommunity structure on the site-by-species incidence matrices. Both methods allow the testing of expected patterns resulting from environmental filtering, but variance partitioning allows the role of dispersal and environmental gradients to be studied, while analysis of the site-by-species metacommunity structure informs an understanding of how environmental filtering occurs and whether or not patterns differ from chance expectation. We also used spatial regressions on species richness to identify relevant environmental factors at each scale and to link results from the two approaches. Results Major environmental drivers of richness included growing degree-days, temperature, moisture and spatial or temporal heterogeneity. Variance partitioning pointed to an increase in the role of dispersal at coarser resolutions, while metacommunity structure analysis pointed to environmental filtering having an important role at all resolutions through a Clementsian assembly process (i.e. groups of species having similar range boundaries and co-occurring in similar environments). Main conclusions The combination of methods used here allows a better understanding of the forces structuring ecological communities than either one of them used separately. A key aspect in this complementarity is that variance partitioning can detect effects of dispersal whereas metacommunity structure analysis cannot. Moreover, the latter can distinguish between different forms of environmental filtering (e.g. individualistic versus group species responses to environmental gradients).

International audience; Forestry plantations represent about 4 % of the global land cover and demand for wood is steadily increasing worldwide. Impacts of forest plantations on biodiversity are controversial; forest plantations could positively influence biodiversity by producing a buffer zone between native forests and agriculture, while replacement of native forests with plantations could reduce biodiversity. Chile is one of the main producers of wood worldwide, and production is largely based on intensively managed monocultures of exotic tree species. Only a few studies have looked at the effects of forestry plantations on biodiversity in Chile, mainly focusing on pine plantations. The aim of this study was to characterize habitat use and richness of bats between native forests, eucalyptus plantations and grasslands in a biodiversity hotspot in southern Chile to determine how land use affects an important mammalian taxa. We found no difference in use or richness of bats in eucalyptus plantations versus native forests. Regional context within the larger Valdivian watershed (Andes, central valley, coastal range) had a stronger influence on bat activity and richness than land use type (native forest, plantation, grassland), with the Andean region being the most diverse and where most bat activity is concentrated. Our results suggest that the composition and structure of the surrounding landscape mosaic may be fundamental to determine the impacts of forestry and human land use on biodiversity.

The FishMed database provides traits, phylogeny, current and projected species distribution of Mediterranean fishes, and associated sea surface temperature (SST) from the regional oceanic model NEMOMED8. Data for the current geographical distributions of 635 Mediterranean fish species were compiled from a published expert knowledge atlas of fishes of the northern Atlantic and the Mediterranean (FNAM) edited between 1984 and 1986 and from an updated exotic fish species list. Two future sets of projected species distributions were obtained for the middle and end of the 21st century by using an ensemble forecasting approach for 288 coastal Mediterranean fish species based on SST according to the IPPC/SRES A2 scenario implemented with the Mediterranean climatic model NEMOMED8. The functional part of the database encompasses 12 biological and ecological traits (maximal and common lengths, vertical distribution, habitat, migration type, mode of reproduction, sex shift, semelparity, diet type (larvae and adults), social behavior, species origin, and depth) for the 635 fish species. To build the phylogeny we inferred the timing and geographic origins of Mediterranean teleost species diversity using nucleotide sequences collected from GenBank including 62% of Mediterranean teleost species plus nine outgroups. Maximum likelihood Bayesian phylogenetic and dating analyses were calibrated using 20 fossil species. An additional 124 fish species were grafted onto the chronogram according to their taxonomic affinity to obtain a phylogenetic tree including 498 species. Finally we also present the associated SST data for the observed period (1961–1980) and for the middle (2040–2059) and the end of the 21st century (2080–2099) obtained from NEMOMED8 according to the IPCC A2 scenario. The FishMed database might be of interest in the context of global anthropogenic changes as coastal Mediterranean ecosystems are currently recognized as one of the most impacted ecosystems on earth.

Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi), an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1) species prevalence; (2) modelling method; and (3) variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive threat considering different sources of uncertainty in species distribution modelling.

International audience; The Mediterranean Sea is a highly diverse, highly studied, and highly impacted biogeographic region, yet no phylogenetic reconstruction of fish diversity in this area has been published to date. Here, we infer the timing and geographic origins of Mediterranean teleost species diversity using nucleotide sequences collected from GenBank. We assembled a DNA supermatrix composed of four mitochondrial genes (12S ribosomal DNA, 16S ribosomal DNA, cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and cytochrome b) and two nuclear genes (rhodopsin and recombination activating gene I), including 62% of Mediterranean teleost species plus 9 outgroups. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic and dating analyses were calibrated using 20 fossil constraints. An additional 124 species were grafted onto the chronogram according to their taxonomic affinity, checking for the effects of taxonomic coverage in subsequent diversification analyses. We then interpreted the time-line of teleost diversification in light of Mediterranean historical biogeography, distinguishing nonendemic natives, endemics and exotic species. Results show that the major Mediterranean orders are of Cretaceous origin, specifically ,100–80 Mya, and most Perciformes families originated 80–50 Mya. Two important clade origin events were detected. The first at 100–80 Mya, affected native and exotic species, and reflects a global diversification period at a time when the Mediterranean Sea did not yet exist. The second occurred during the last 50 Mya, and is noticeable among endemic and native species, but not among exotic species. This period corresponds to isolation of the Mediterranean from Indo-Pacific waters before the Messinian salinity crisis. The Mediterranean fish fauna illustrates well the assembly of regional faunas through origination and immigration, where dispersal and isolation have shaped the emergence of a biodiversity hotspot.

The aim of this study was to characterize environmental differentiation of lineages within Rhabdomys and provide hypotheses regarding potential areas of contact between them in the Southern African subregion, including the Republic of South Africa, Lesotho, and Namibia. Records of Rhabdomys taxa across the study region were compiled and georeferenced from the literature, museum records, and field expeditions. Presence records were summarized within a 10 × 10 km grid covering the study area. Environmental information regarding climate, topography, land use, and vegetation productivity was gathered at the same resolution. Multivariate statistics were used to characterize the current environmental niche and distribution of the whole genus as well as of three mitochondrial lineages known to occur in southern Africa. Distribution modeling was carried out using MAXENT in order to generate hypotheses regarding current distribution of each taxa and their potential contact zones. Results indicate that the two species within Rhabdomys appear to have differentiated across the precipitation/temperature gradient present in the region from east to west. R. dilectus occupies the wettest areas in eastern southern Africa, while R. pumilio occupies the warmer and drier regions in the west, but also penetrates in the more mesic central part of the region. We provide further evidence of environmental differentiation within two lineages of R. dilectus. Contact zones between lineages appear to occur in areas of strong environmental gradients and topographic complexity, such as the transition zones between major biomes and the escarpment area where a sharp altitudinal gradient separates coastal and plateau areas, but also within more homogeneous areas such as within grassland and savannah biomes. Our results indicate that Rhabdomys may be more specialized than previously thought when considering current knowledge regarding mitochondrial lineages. The genus appears to have differentiated along two major environmental axes in the study region, but results also suggest dispersal limitations and biological interactions having a role in limiting current distribution boundaries. Furthermore, the projection of the potential geographic distribution of the different lineages suggests several contact zones that may be interesting study fields for understanding the interplay between ecological and evolutionary processes during speciation.

International audience; This study shows how data emanating from very different sources can be integrated using modern statistical and spatially explicit techniques in order to gain insights into ecological processes leading to differentiation between closely related taxa. We test ecological radiation in the striped mouse (Rhabdomys sp.) using a niche modeling approach to compare habitat characteristics of its three mitochondrial lineages, which we show to co-occur in a South African province. Here, we describe and make predictions on the distribution and potential niches of these lineages and locate contact zones between them. Our study involved field investigations, genotyping, GIS and multivariate statistics analyses. We used Maxent, an approach allowing us to produce suitability maps and predict potential contact zones. Our results strongly suggest that the three lineages could have different environmental niches which may explain their co-occurrence in some areas. Further, these results might give credence to the hypothesis of ecological radiation within the genus, which could be further tested in contact zones highlighted in our study. (c) 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Ecophylogenetics can be viewed as an emerging fusion of ecology, biogeography and macroevolution. This new and fast-growing field is promoting the incorporation of evolution and historical contingencies into the ecological research agenda through the widespread use of phylogenetic data. Including phylogeny into ecological thinking represents an opportunity for biologists from different fields to collaborate and has provided promising avenues of research in both theoretical and empirical ecology, towards a better understanding of the assembly of communities, the functioning of ecosystems and their responses to environmental changes. The time is ripe to assess critically the extent to which the integration of phylogeny into these different fields of ecology has delivered on its promise. Here we review how phylogenetic information has been used to identify better the key components of species interactions with their biotic and abiotic environments, to determine the relationships between diversity and ecosystem functioning and ultimately to establish good management practices to protect overall biodiversity in the face of global change. We evaluate the relevance of information provided by phylogenies to ecologists, highlighting current potential weaknesses and needs for future developments. We suggest that despite the strong progress that has been made, a consistent unified framework is still missing to link local ecological dynamics to macroevolution. This is a necessary step in order to interpret observed phylogenetic patterns in a wider ecological context. Beyond the fundamental question of how evolutionary history contributes to shape communities, ecophylogenetics will help ecology to become a better integrative and predictive science. © 2012 CNRS. Biological Reviews © 2012 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

International audience; Ecological theory suggests that spatial distribution of biodiversity is strongly driven by community assembly processes. Thus the study of diversity patterns combined with null model testing has become increasingly common to infer assembly processes from observed distributions of diversity indices. However, results in both empirical and simulation studies are inconsistent. The aim of our study is to determine with simulated data which facets of biodiversity, if any, may unravel the processes driving its spatial patterns, and to provide practical considerations about the combination of diversity indices that would produce significant and congruent signals when using null models. The study is based on simulated species assemblages that emerge under various landscape structures in a spatially explicit individual-based model with contrasting, predefined assembly processes. We focus on four assembly processes (species-sorting, mass effect, neutral dynamics and competition colonization trade-off) and investigate the emerging species distributions with varied diversity indices (alpha, beta and gamma) measured at different spatial scales and for different diversity facets (taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic). We find that 1) the four assembly processes result in distinct spatial distributions of species under any landscape structure, 2) a broad range of diversity indices allows distinguishing between communities driven by different assembly processes, 3) null models provide congruent results only for a small fraction of diversity indices and 4) only a combination of these diversity indices allows identifying the correct assembly processes. Our study supports the inference of assembly processes from patterns of diversity only when different types of indices are combined. It highlights the need to combine phylogenetic, functional and taxonomic diversity indices at multiple spatial scales to effectively infer underlying assembly processes from diversity patterns by illustrating how combination of different indices might help disentangling the complex question of coexistence.

David Mouillot ... et al.-- 7 pages, 3 figures, 1 table, The Mediterranean Sea (0.82% of the global oceanic surface) holds 4%–18% of all known marine species (∼17,000), with a high proportion of endemism [ [1] and [2]]. This exceptional biodiversity is under severe threats [1] but benefits from a system of 100 marine protected areas (MPAs). Surprisingly, the spatial congruence of fish biodiversity hot spots with this MPA system and the areas of high fishing pressure has not been assessed. Moreover, evolutionary and functional breadth of species assemblages [3] has been largely overlooked in marine systems. Here we adopted a multifaceted approach to biodiversity by considering the species richness of total, endemic, and threatened coastal fish assemblages as well as their functional and phylogenetic diversity. We show that these fish biodiversity components are spatially mismatched. The MPA system covers a small surface of the Mediterranean (0.4%) and is spatially congruent with the hot spots of all taxonomic components of fish diversity. However, it misses hot spots of functional and phylogenetic diversity. In addition, hot spots of endemic species richness and phylogenetic diversity are spatially congruent with hot spots of fishery impact. Our results highlight that future conservation strategies and assessment efficiency of current reserve systems will need to be revisited after deconstructing the different components of biodiversity, This study was partly funded by Fondation Total, Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversité project BIODIVMED, Agence National de la Recherche project ANR-09-PEXT-01102 546 EVORANGE, and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique program BIODIVMEX. D.M. was supported by Marie Curie International Outgoing Fellowship (FISHECO) IOF-GA-2009-236316. M.C. was funded by the European Commission through a Marie Curie International Outgoing Fellowship to the ECOFUN project (FP7-PEOPLE-2007-4-1-IOF). This publication is contribution number 2011-049 of the Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier (UMR CNRS-UM2 5554)

Functional and phylogenetic diversity are increasingly quantified in various fields of ecology and conservation biology. The need to maintain diversity turnover among sites, so-called beta-diversity, has also been raised in theoretical and applied ecology. In this study, we propose the first comprehensive framework for the large-scale mapping of taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity and of their respective turnover. Using high-resolution data on the spatial distribution and abundance of birds at a country scale, we disentangled areas of mismatches and congruencies between biodiversity components. We further revealed unequal representation of each component in protected areas: functional diversity was significantly under-represented whereas taxonomic diversity was significantly over-represented in protected areas. Our results challenge the use of any one diversity component as a surrogate for other components and stress the need to adopt an integrative approach to biodiversity conservation.

Ecologists carry a well-stocked toolbox with a great variety of sampling methods, statistical analyses and modelling tools, and new methods are constantly appearing. Evaluation and optimisation of these methods is crucial to guide methodological choices. Simulating error-free data or taking high-quality data to qualify methods is common practice. Here, we emphasise the methodology of the 'virtual ecologist' (VE) approach where simulated data and observer models are used to mimic real species and how they are 'virtually' observed. This virtual data is then subjected to statistical analyses and modelling, and the results are evaluated against the 'true' simulated data. The VE approach is an intuitive and powerful evaluation framework that allows a quality assessment of sampling protocols, analyses and modelling tools. It works under controlled conditions as well as under consideration of confounding factors such as animal movement and biased observer behaviour. In this review, we promote the approach as a rigorous research tool, and demonstrate its capabilities and practical relevance. We explore past uses of VE in different ecological research fields, where it mainly has been used to test and improve sampling regimes as well as for testing and comparing models, for example species distribution models. We discuss its benefits as well as potential limitations, and provide some practical considerations for designing VE studies. Finally, research fields are identified for which the approach could be useful in the future. We conclude that VE could foster the integration of theoretical and empirical work and stimulate work that goes far beyond sampling methods, leading to new questions, theories, and better mechanistic understanding of ecological systems.

The influence of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning is a major concern of ecological research. However, the biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationship has very often been studied independently from the mechanisms allowing coexistence. By considering the effects of dispersal and niche partitioning on diversity, the metacommunity perspective predicts a spatial scale-dependence of the shape of the relationship. Here, we present experimental evidence of such scale-dependent patterns. After approximately 500 generations of diversification in a spatially heterogeneous environment, we measured functional diversity (FD) and productivity at both local and regional scales in experimental source-sink metacommunities of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25. At the regional scale, environmental heterogeneity yielded high levels of FD and we observed a positive correlation between diversity and productivity. At the local scale, intermediate dispersal increased local FD through a mass effect but there was no correlation between diversity and productivity. These experimental results underline the importance of considering the mechanisms maintaining biodiversity and the appropriate spatial scales in understanding its relationship with ecosystem functioning.

Spatial structure in metacommunities and their relationships to environmental gradients have been linked to opposing theories of community assembly. In particular, while the species sorting hypothesis predicts strong environmental influences, the neutral theory, the mass effect, and the patch dynamics frameworks all predict differing degrees of spatial structure resulting from dispersal and competition limitations. Here we study the relative influence of environmental gradients and spatial structure in bird assemblages of the Chilean temperate forest. We carried out bird and vegetation surveys in South American temperate forests at 147 points located in nine different protected areas in central Chile, and collected meteorological and productivity data for these localities. Species composition dissimilarities between sites were calculated, as well as three indices of bird local diversity: observed species richness, Chao estimate of richness, and Shannon diversity. A stepwise multiple regression and partial regression analyses were used to select a small number of environmental factors that predicted bird species diversity. Although diversity indices were spatially autocorrelated, environmental factors were sufficient to account for this autocorrelation. Moreover, community dissimilarities were not significantly related to distance between sites. We then tested a multivariate hypothesis about climate, vegetation, and avian diversity interactions using a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. The SEM showed that climate and area of fragments have important indirect effects on avian diversity, mediated through changes in vegetation structure. Given the scale of this study, the metacommunity framework provides useful insights into the mechanisms driving bird assemblages in this region. Taken together, the weak spatial structure of community composition and diversity, as well as the strong environmental effects on bird diversity, support the interpretation that species sorting has a predominant role in structuring avian assemblages in the region.