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Abstract Landscape restoration initiatives are mainly focusing on forest regeneration and agroforestry, especially in the Global South. However, due to a lack of monitoring tools, the carbon balance of restoration efforts remains poorly quantified. Here, we use satellite images from 2008 and 2019 to calculate carbon stocks for individual trees in Rwanda, a country which has been actively engaged in restoration activities over the past decade. We show that smallholder farmers on average planted about 3 trees per farm during 2008–2019, contributing about 50.4 million new trees at the national scale. The overall C sink of the new farmland trees was 0.13 Megagrams of Carbon per hectare per year, which is 6 times lower than gains observed from restoration of degraded forests (0.76 Megagrams of Carbon per hectare per year). If national greenhouse gas emissions remain at the level of 2019, agroforestry (~61% of national area coverage) and continued restoration of degraded natural forests (~0.5% of national area coverage) have the potential to offset about 80% of the national emissions before 2050. Our work monitors and quantifies progress and impact of landscape restoration projects and outlines a pathway to engage smallholder farmers with a limited number of on-farm trees into the expanding carbon market.

Abstract The consistent monitoring of trees both inside and outside of forests is key to sustainable land management. Current monitoring systems either ignore trees outside forests or are too expensive to be applied consistently across countries on a repeated basis. Here we use the PlanetScope nanosatellite constellation, which delivers global very high-resolution daily imagery, to map both forest and non-forest tree cover for continental Africa using images from a single year. Our prototype map of 2019 (RMSE = 9.57%, bias = −6.9%). demonstrates that a precise assessment of all tree-based ecosystems is possible at continental scale, and reveals that 29% of tree cover is found outside areas previously classified as tree cover in state-of-the-art maps, such as in croplands and grassland. Such accurate mapping of tree cover down to the level of individual trees and consistent among countries has the potential to redefine land use impacts in non-forest landscapes, move beyond the need for forest definitions, and build the basis for natural climate solutions and tree-related studies.

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has put massive strains on hospitals, and tools to guide hospital planners in resource allocation during the ebbs and flows of the pandemic are urgently needed. We investigate whether machine learning (ML) can be used for predictions of intensive care requirements a fixed number of days into the future. Retrospective design where health Records from 42,526 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients in Denmark was extracted. Random Forest (RF) models were trained to predict risk of ICU admission and use of mechanical ventilation after n days (n = 1, 2, …, 15). An extended analysis was provided for n = 5 and n = 10. Models predicted n-day risk of ICU admission with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) between 0.981 and 0.995, and n-day risk of use of ventilation with an ROC-AUC between 0.982 and 0.997. The corresponding n-day forecasting models predicted the needed ICU capacity with a coefficient of determination (R2) between 0.334 and 0.989 and use of ventilation with an R2 between 0.446 and 0.973. The forecasting models performed worst, when forecasting many days into the future (for large n). For n = 5, ICU capacity was predicted with ROC-AUC 0.990 and R2 0.928, and use of ventilator was predicted with ROC-AUC 0.994 and R2 0.854. Random Forest-based modelling can be used for accurate n-day forecasting predictions of ICU resource requirements, when n is not too large.

Abstract Sleep disorders affect a large portion of the global population and are strong predictors of morbidity and all-cause mortality. Sleep staging segments a period of sleep into a sequence of phases providing the basis for most clinical decisions in sleep medicine. Manual sleep staging is difficult and time-consuming as experts must evaluate hours of polysomnography (PSG) recordings with electroencephalography (EEG) and electrooculography (EOG) data for each patient. Here, we present U-Sleep, a publicly available, ready-to-use deep-learning-based system for automated sleep staging ( sleep.ai.ku.dk ). U-Sleep is a fully convolutional neural network, which was trained and evaluated on PSG recordings from 15,660 participants of 16 clinical studies. It provides accurate segmentations across a wide range of patient cohorts and PSG protocols not considered when building the system. U-Sleep works for arbitrary combinations of typical EEG and EOG channels, and its special deep learning architecture can label sleep stages at shorter intervals than the typical 30 s periods used during training. We show that these labels can provide additional diagnostic information and lead to new ways of analyzing sleep. U-Sleep performs on par with state-of-the-art automatic sleep staging systems on multiple clinical datasets, even if the other systems were built specifically for the particular data. A comparison with consensus-scores from a previously unseen clinic shows that U-Sleep performs as accurately as the best of the human experts. U-Sleep can support the sleep staging workflow of medical experts, which decreases healthcare costs, and can provide highly accurate segmentations when human expertize is lacking.

Abstract Patients with severe COVID-19 have overwhelmed healthcare systems worldwide. We hypothesized that machine learning (ML) models could be used to predict risks at different stages of management and thereby provide insights into drivers and prognostic markers of disease progression and death. From a cohort of approx. 2.6 million citizens in Denmark, SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests were performed on subjects suspected for COVID-19 disease; 3944 cases had at least one positive test and were subjected to further analysis. SARS-CoV-2 positive cases from the United Kingdom Biobank was used for external validation. The ML models predicted the risk of death (Receiver Operation Characteristics—Area Under the Curve, ROC-AUC) of 0.906 at diagnosis, 0.818, at hospital admission and 0.721 at Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission. Similar metrics were achieved for predicted risks of hospital and ICU admission and use of mechanical ventilation. Common risk factors, included age, body mass index and hypertension, although the top risk features shifted towards markers of shock and organ dysfunction in ICU patients. The external validation indicated fair predictive performance for mortality prediction, but suboptimal performance for predicting ICU admission. ML may be used to identify drivers of progression to more severe disease and for prognostication patients in patients with COVID-19. We provide access to an online risk calculator based on these findings.

Current endeavors to enhance the accuracy of in situ above-ground biomass (AGB) prediction for croplands rely on close-range monitoring surveys that use unstaffed aerial vehicles (UAVs) and mounted sensors. In precision agriculture, light detection and ranging (LiDAR) technologies are currently used to monitor crop growth, plant phenotyping, and biomass dynamics at the ecosystem scale. In this study, we utilized a UAV–LiDAR sensor to monitor two crop fields and a set of machine learning (ML) methods to predict real-time AGB over two consecutive years in the region of Mid-Jutland, Denmark. During each crop growing period, UAV surveys were conducted in parallel with AGB destructive sampling every 7–15 days, the AGB samples from which were used as the ground truth data. We evaluated the ability of the ML models to estimate the real-time values of AGB at a sub-meter resolution (0.17–0.52 m2). An extremely randomized trees (ERT) regressor was selected for the regression analysis, based on its predictive performance for the first year’s growing season. The model was retrained using previously identified hyperparameters to predict the AGB of the crops in the second year. The ERT performed AGB estimation using height and reflectance metrics from LiDAR-derived point cloud data and achieved a prediction performance of R2 = 0.48 at a spatial resolution of 0.35 m2. The prediction performance could be improved significantly by aggregating adjacent predictions (R2 = 0.71 and R2 = 0.93 at spatial resolutions of 1 m2 and 2 m2, respectively) as they ultimately converged to the reference biomass values because any individual errors averaged out. The AGB prediction results were examined as function of predictor type, training set size, sampling resolution, phenology, and canopy density. The results demonstrated that when combined with ML regression methods, the UAV–LiDAR method could be used to provide accurate real-time AGB prediction for crop fields at a high resolution, thereby providing a way to map their biochemical constituents.

This paper presents a brain T1-weighted structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) biomarker that combines several individual MRI biomarkers (cortical thickness measurements, volumetric measurements, hippocampal shape, and hippocampal texture). The method was developed, trained, and evaluated using two publicly available reference datasets: a standardized dataset from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and the imaging arm of the Australian Imaging Biomarkers and Lifestyle flagship study of ageing (AIBL). In addition, the method was evaluated by participation in the Computer-Aided Diagnosis of Dementia (CADDementia) challenge. Cross-validation using ADNI and AIBL data resulted in a multi-class classification accuracy of 62.7% for the discrimination of healthy normal controls (NC), subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD). This performance generalized to the CADDementia challenge where the method, trained using the ADNI and AIBL data, achieved a classification accuracy 63.0%. The obtained classification accuracy resulted in a first place in the challenge, and the method was significantly better (McNemar's test) than the bottom 24 methods out of the total of 29 methods contributed by 15 different teams in the challenge. The method was further investigated with learning curve and feature selection experiments using ADNI and AIBL data. The learning curve experiments suggested that neither more training data nor a more complex classifier would have improved the obtained results. The feature selection experiment showed that both common and uncommon individual MRI biomarkers contributed to the performance; hippocampal volume, ventricular volume, hippocampal texture, and parietal lobe thickness were the most important. This study highlights the need for both subtle, localized measurements and global measurements in order to discriminate NC, MCI, and AD simultaneously based on a single structural MRI scan. It is likely that additional non-structural MRI features are needed to further improve the obtained performance, especially to improve the discrimination between NC and MCI.

BackgroundAntitachycardia pacing (ATP) is an effective treatment for ventricular tachycardia (VT). We evaluated the efficacy of different ATP programs based on a large remote monitoring data set from patients with implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs).MethodsA dataset from 18,679 ICD patients was used to evaluate the first delivered ATP treatment. We considered all device programs that were used for at least 50 patients, leaving us with 7 different programs and a total of 32,045 episodes. We used the two-proportions z-test (α = 0.01) to compare the probability of success and the probability for acceleration in each group with the corresponding values of the default setting.ResultsOverall, the first ATP treatment terminated in 78.4%-97.5% of episodes with slow VT and 81.5%-91.1% of episodes with fast VT. The default setting of the ATP programs with the number of sequences S = 3 was applied to treat 30.1% of the slow and 36.6% of the fast episodes. Reducing the maximum number of sequences to S = 2 decreased the success rate for slow VT (P < 0.0001, h = 0.38), while the setting S = 4 resulted in the highest success rate of 97.5% (P < 0.0001, h = 0.27).ConclusionWhile the default programs performed well, we found that increasing the number of sequences from 3 to 4 was a promising option to improve the overall ATP performance.

A central task in the analysis of human movement behavior is to determine systematic patterns and differences across experimental conditions, participants and repetitions. This is possible because human movement is highly regular, being constrained by invariance principles. Movement timing and movement path, in particular, are linked through scaling laws. Separating variations of movement timing from the spatial variations of movements is a well-known challenge that is addressed in current approaches only through forms of preprocessing that bias analysis. Here we propose a novel nonlinear mixed-effects model for analyzing temporally continuous signals that contain systematic effects in both timing and path. Identifiability issues of path relative to timing are overcome by using maximum likelihood estimation in which the most likely separation of space and time is chosen given the variation found in data. The model is applied to analyze experimental data of human arm movements in which participants move a hand-held object to a target location while avoiding an obstacle. The model is used to classify movement data according to participant. Comparison to alternative approaches establishes nonlinear mixed-effects models as viable alternatives to conventional analysis frameworks. The model is then combined with a novel factor-analysis model that estimates the low-dimensional subspace within which movements vary when the task demands vary. Our framework enables us to visualize different dimensions of movement variation and to test hypotheses about the effect of obstacle placement and height on the movement path. We demonstrate that the approach can be used to uncover new properties of human movement.

A neural field model is presented that captures the essential non-linear characteristics of activity dynamics across several millimeters of visual cortex in response to local flashed and moving stimuli. We account for physiological data obtained by voltage-sensitive dye (VSD) imaging which reports mesoscopic population activity at high spatio-temporal resolution. Stimulation included a single flashed square, a single flashed bar, the line-motion paradigm--for which psychophysical studies showed that flashing a square briefly before a bar produces sensation of illusory motion within the bar--and moving squares controls. We consider a two-layer neural field (NF) model describing an excitatory and an inhibitory layer of neurons as a coupled system of non-linear integro-differential equations. Under the assumption that the aggregated activity of both layers is reflected by VSD imaging, our phenomenological model quantitatively accounts for the observed spatio-temporal activity patterns. Moreover, the model generalizes to novel similar stimuli as it matches activity evoked by moving squares of different speeds. Our results indicate that feedback from higher brain areas is not required to produce motion patterns in the case of the illusory line-motion paradigm. Physiological interpretation of the model suggests that a considerable fraction of the VSD signal may be due to inhibitory activity, supporting the notion that balanced intra-layer cortical interactions between inhibitory and excitatory populations play a major role in shaping dynamic stimulus representations in the early visual cortex.