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Abstract Background Malnutrition remains a pressing public health concern for mothers and children in South Africa. Despite the government’s multisectoral response, unaddressed social needs prevent some mothers getting full benefit from interventions, spanning financial planning, income stability, housing, access to government services, social support, and provision of affordable, nutritious foods. Engaging with mothers and prioritising their concerns is important if we wish to overcome obstacles to women benefiting from government nutrition interventions. This study aimed to identify the programmes that women perceived as a priority in addressing the social needs of mothers of young infants and pregnant women to enhance nutrition in a resource-constrained urban township in South Africa. Methods A cross-sectional study employed a quantitative preference elicitation survey, administered to 210 mothers and pregnant women from five primary healthcare facilities in Soweto. The survey tool was developed with the community to identify unmet social needs and potential solutions, which were synthesised with findings from the literature. The survey described 15 programmes, grouped into three delivery levels: clinics, community, and government. Participants were required to rank programme options in two stages. First, they selected their top two programmes within each delivery level. Subsequently, they allocated stickers to indicate the strength of their preference among the top programmes across the levels. Rankings were analysed using descriptive statistics. Results The highest priority was given to five programmes. Two delivered at the community level: Women’s economic empowerment groups and Job search assistance, two at the clinic level: Social needs assessment and referral, and Prescription-based food, and one at the government level: Free quality childcare. The lowest-ranked programmes were two clinic-based programmes, specifically Maternal nutrition groups and Couple antenatal education. Conclusion Women expressed strong views about which programmes should be prioritised to support mothers and pregnant women in addressing their social needs and improving nutrition. Key areas included providing support with job searching and entrepreneurship, accessing childcare and the healthy foods recommended at clinics, as well as finding information on available community and government services. Leveraging multisectoral collaboration, aligned policy objectives, efficient public financing, and strengthened implementation capacity will be pivotal in delivering these programmes.

Introduction Poverty, HIV and perinatal depression represent a triple threat to public health in sub-Saharan Africa because of their combined negative effects on parenting and child development. In the resource-constrained context of low-income and middle-income countries, a lay-counsellor-delivered intervention that combines a psychological and parenting intervention could offer the potential to mitigate the consequences of perinatal depression while also optimising scarce resources for healthcare.Measuring the cost-effectiveness of such a novel intervention will help decision-makers to better understand the relative costs and effects associated with replicating the intervention, thereby supporting evidence-based decision-making. This protocol sets out the methodological framework for analysing the cost-effectiveness of a cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) that compares a combined intervention to enhanced standard of care when treating depressed, HIV-positive pregnant women and their infants in rural South Africa.Methods and analysis This cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) protocol complies with the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards 2022 checklist. A societal perspective will be chosen.The proposed methods will determine the cost and efficiency of implementing the intervention as per the randomised control trial protocol, as well as the cost of replicating the intervention in a non-research setting. The costs will be calculated using an appropriately adjusted version of the Standardised Early Childhood Development Costing Tool.Primary health outcomes will be used in combination with costs to determine the cost per improvement in maternal perinatal depression at 12 months postnatal and the cost per improvement in child cognitive development at 24 months of age. To facilitate priority setting, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for improvements in child cognitive development will be ranked against six other child cognitive-development interventions according to Verguet et al’s methodology (2022).A combination of activity-based and ingredient-based costing approaches will be used to identify, measure and value activities and inputs for all alternatives. Outcomes data will be sourced from the RCT team.Ethics and dissemination The University of Oxford is the sponsor of the CEA. Ethics approval has been obtained from the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC, #REC 5/23/08/17), South Africa and the Oxford Tropical Research Ethics Committee (OxTREC #31–17), UK.Consent for publication is not applicable since no participant data are used in this protocol.We plan to disseminate the CEA results to key policymakers and researchers in the form of a policy brief, meetings and academic papers.Trial registration details ISRCTN registry #11 284 870 (14/11/2017) and SANCTR DOH-27-102020-9097 (17/11/2017).

ABSTRACTMaternal and child malnutrition persists globally, despite existing healthcare and social protection systems. Socio-economic disadvantages contribute to high malnutrition rates, particularly in poor urban communities where many disadvantaged mothers cannot fully benefit from services. To address these disparities, a novel social needs framework has been proposed, emphasising the importance of addressing individuals’ unmet needs to enhance the benefits of nutrition services. This study investigates the perceived impact of community-based organisations (CBOs) in addressing the social needs of mothers in a resource-constrained urban township in South Africa. Interviews were conducted with 18 employees from 10 CBOs working on maternal and child health, food security and social support in Soweto. Thematic analysis revealed 23 services and four pathways through which CBOs believed to address unmet social needs of beneficiaries. Services were small-scale, including food aid, learning support, and social protection assistance, available to a few in dire need. CBO services partially addressed social needs of mothers due to scale, coverage, and sustainability limitations. The South African government should reaffirm its commitment to financially supporting the non-profit sector and integrating it into government sectors to provide tailored services and resources to address diverse social needs and mitigate nutrition inequalities among mothers and children.

Objectives Despite free primary healthcare services and social protection system for mothers and children, significant nutrition inequalities occur across the globe, including in South Africa. This study aimed to explore what determines mothers’ ability to access and turn available services into nutrition benefits.Design An exploratory qualitative study was conducted including semistructured interviews with employees from community-based organisations and focus groups with pregnant women and mothers. Discussions focused on existing services perceived as important to nutrition, differences in mothers’ ability to benefit from these services, and the underlying unmet needs contributing to these disparities. Data were analysed thematically using a novel social needs framework developed for this study where social needs are defined as the requisites that can magnify (if unmet) or reduce (if met) variation in the degree to which individuals can benefit from existing services.Setting A resource-constrained urban township, Soweto in Johannesburg.Participants Thirty mothers of infants (

BackgroundProsocial behavior has positive social, cognitive, and physical health effects on the individual exhibiting the behavior as well as on society as a whole, and is integral to overall mental and physical wellbeing. The development of prosocial behavior is rooted in early childhood and learned through observation. As such, those spending time with children, especially their caregiver, play a critical role in their prosocial development. The current study investigates the impact of caregiver mental health on the prosocial development of young children over time.MethodsThis paper presents a secondary analysis of child prosocial development in the Asenze Study, a longitudinal, population-based cohort study based in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Children were followed-up over time from an average age of five to seven years along with their caregivers. Linear GEE regression analysis was used to assess whether a change in presence of a mental health disorder in a caregiver during this 2-year interval (using the Client Diagnostic Questionnaire) impacted the development of their child's prosocial behavior (using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire).ResultsAfter adjusting for early child-care, child HIV status, SDQ child prosocial subscale, SDQ total difficulties score, and household order score (CHAOS), children whose caregivers acquired a mental health disorder had a significantly smaller increase in prosocial behavioral development compared to children whose caregivers never had a mental health disorder.ConclusionsIdentifying contextually relevant modifiable factors such as this will help stimulate the development of interventions to promote prosocial development in childhood.

Early childhood development (ECD) programmes are heralded as a way to improve children's health and educational outcomes. However, few studies in developing countries calculate the effectiveness of quality early childhood interventions. This study estimates the cost and cost-effectiveness of the Sugira Muryango (SM) trial, a home-visiting intervention to improve ECD outcomes through positive parent-child relationships. Cost-effectiveness analysis of ECD interventions is challenging given their potential to have multiple benefits. We propose a cost-effectiveness method using a single outcome, in this case the improvement in cognitive development per home-visit session, as an indication of efficiency comparable across similar interventions. The trial intervention cost US$456 per family. This cost will likely fall below US$200 if the intervention is scaled through government systems. The cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that while SM generated a relatively small impact on markers of early development, it did so efficiently. The observed improvements in cognitive development per home-visit are similar to other home-visiting interventions of longer duration. SM by focusing on the family had benefits beyond ECD, including reductions in violence against children and intermate partner violence, further analysis is needed to include these returns in the economic evaluation.

There is limited evidence around the cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce violence against children in low- and middle-income countries. We used a decision-analytic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of three intervention scenarios for reducing adolescent emotional, physical, and sexual abuse in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. The intervention scenarios were: 1) Community grant outreach to link households to South Africa's Child Support Grant (CSG) if they are eligible, but not receiving it; 2) Group-based parenting support; and 3) Group-based parenting support 'plus' linkage to the CSG. We estimated average cost-effectiveness ratios (ACERs) for intervention scenarios over a ten-year time horizon, and compared them to a South Africa-specific willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold (USD3390). Health effects were expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Our model considered four combinations of routine service versus trial-based costing, and population-average versus high prevalence of violence. Under routine service costing, ACERs for grant outreach and parenting support were below the WTP threshold when considering a population-average prevalence of violence USD2850 (Lower: USD1840-Upper: USD10,500) and USD2620 (USD1520-USD9800) per DALY averted, respectively; and a high prevalence of violence USD1320 (USD908-USD5180) and USD1340 (USD758-USD4910) per DALY averted, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness of parenting support plus grant linkage relative to parenting support alone was USD462 (USD346-USD1610) and USD225 (USD150-USD811) per DALY averted at a population-average and high prevalence of violence, respectively. Under trial-based costing, only the ACER for grant outreach was below the WTP threshold when considering a high prevalence of violence USD2580 (USD1640-USD9370) per DALY averted. Confidence intervals for all ACERs crossed the WTP threshold. In conclusion, grant outreach and parenting support are likely to be cost-effective intervention scenarios for reducing violence against adolescents if they apply routine service costing and reach high risk groups. Combining parenting support with grant linkage is likely to be more cost-effective than parenting support alone.

The Covid-19 pandemic and resultant disruptions to schooling presented significant challenges for many families. Well organised families have been shown to have a protective effect on adolescent wellbeing in periods of shock. At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, Asenze, a population-based cohort study, was conducting a third wave of data collection in peri-urban South Africa, examining risk and protective factors during adolescence. By March 2020, n = 272 adolescents and their caregivers (n = 241) in the cohort had been assessed when in-person data collection was halted by lockdown measures countrywide. During this cessation we undertook a brief telephonic qualitative sub-study to explore whether families enrolled in the cohort were able to cohabit cohesively and undertake distance learning during lockdown. A purposeful sample of 20 families (caregivers n = 20, adolescents n = 24) recently assessed in the Wave 3 of the main study, participated in semi-structured interviews. Quantitative data from Waves 1-3 of the main study was used to measure family function, adolescent cognitive function, and profile adolescent and caregivers. The quantitative and qualitative data were integrated to illustrate the dynamics of the participants' lives before and during lockdown. We found that families classified as well-organized before lockdown, were more likely to report co-operation during lockdown. Adolescents who were self-motivated, had access to smartphones or the internet, and were supported by both family and educators, were well-placed to continue their education without much disruption. However, few schools instituted distance learning. Of the adolescents who were not assisted- some studied on their own or with peers, but others did no schoolwork, hindered by a lack of digital connectivity, and poor service delivery. The experience of adolescence and caregivers in the Asenze Cohort during lockdown highlight the importance of family functioning for adolescent wellbeing in crisis, as well as the need for access to health, mental health, and social services, communication upgrades, and enhancements to the education system during peaceful times, to make a difference to young lives in times of crisis.

Maternal and early malnutrition have negative health and developmental impacts over the life-course. Consequently, early nutrition support can provide significant benefits into later life, provided the later life contexts allow. This study examines the limits of siloed investments in nutrition and illustrates how ignoring life-course contextual constraints limits human development benefits and exacerbates inequality, particularly in fragile contexts. This case study focuses on Burkina Faso, a country with high rates of early malnutrition and a fragile state. We modelled the impact of scaling up 10 nutrition interventions to 80% coverage for a single year cohort on stunting, nationally and sub-nationally, using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST), and the consequent impact on earnings, without and with a complementary cash-transfer in later life. The impact on earnings was modelled utilising the well-established pathway between early nutrition, years of completed schooling and, consequent adult earnings. Productivity returns were estimated as the present value of increased income over individuals' working lives, then compared to estimates of the present value of providing the cost of nutrition interventions and cash-transfers. The cost benefit ratio at the national level for scaled nutrition alone is 1:1. Sub-nationally the worst-off region yields the lowest ratio < 0.2 for every dollar spent. The combination of nutrition and cash-transfers national cost benefit is 1:12, still with regional variation but with great improvement in the poorest region. This study shows that early nutrition support alone may not be enough to address inequality and may add to state fragility. Taking a life-course perspective when priority-setting in contexts with multiple constraints on development can help to identify interventions that maximizing returns, without worsening inequality.

Recent evidence has shown support for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) accelerator concept, which highlights the need to identify interventions or programmatic areas that can affect multiple sustainable development goals (SDGs) at once to boost their achievement. These data have also clearly shown enhanced effects when interventions are used in combination, above and beyond the effect of single interventions. However, detailed knowledge is now required on optimum combinations and relative gain in order to derive policy guidance. Which accelerators work for which outcomes, what combinations are optimum, and how many combinations are needed to maximise effect? The current study utilised pooled data from the Young Carers (n = 1402) and Child Community Care (n = 446) studies. Data were collected at baseline (n = 1848) and at a 1 to 1.5- year follow-up (n = 1740) from children and young adolescents aged 9-13 years, living in South Africa. Measures in common between the two databases were used to generate five accelerators (caregiver praise, caregiver monitoring, food security, living in a safe community, and access to community-based organizations) and to investigate their additive effects on 14 SDG-related outcomes. Predicted probabilities and predicted probability differences were calculated for each SDG outcome under the presence of none to five accelerators to determine optimal combinations. Results show that various accelerator combinations are effective, though different combinations are needed for different outcomes. Some accelerators ramified across multiple outcomes. Overall, the presence of up to three accelerators was associated with marked improvements over multiple outcomes. The benefit of targeting access to additional accelerators, with additional costs, needs to be weighed against the relative gains to be achieved with high quality but focused interventions. In conclusion, the current data show the detailed impact of various protective factors and provides implementation guidance for policy makers in targeting and distributing interventions to maximise effect and expenditure. Future work should investigate multiplicative effects and synergistic interactions between accelerators.

Abstract Background The combination of poverty, HIV and depression in the perinatal period represents a major public health challenge in many Southern African countries. In some areas, up to a third of HIV-positive women experience perinatal depression. Perinatal depression is associated with negative effects on parenting and key domains of child development including cognitive, behavioural and growth, especially in socio-economically disadvantaged communities. Several studies have documented the benefits of psychological interventions for perinatal depression in low- and middle-income countries, but none have evaluated an integrated psychological and parenting intervention for HIV-positive women using task-sharing. This randomised controlled trial aims to evaluate the effect of a home-based intervention, combining a psychological treatment for depression and a parenting programme for perinatally depressed HIV-positive women. Methods This study is a cluster randomised controlled trial, consisting of 48–60 geospatial clusters. A total of 528 pregnant HIV-positive women aged ≥ 16 years who meet the criteria for depression on the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS, score ≥ 9)) are recruited from antenatal clinics in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The geospatial clusters are randomised on an allocation ratio of 1:1 to either the intervention or Enhanced Standard of Care (ESoC). The intervention group receives 10 home-based counselling sessions by a lay counsellor (4 antenatal and 6 postnatal sessions) and a booster session at 16 months. The intervention combines behavioural activation for depression with a parenting programme, adapted from the UNICEF/WHO Care for Child Development programme. The ESoC group receives two antenatal and two postnatal counselling support and advice telephone calls. In addition, measures have been taken to enhance the routine standard of care. The co-primary outcomes are child cognitive development at 24 months assessed on the cognitive subscale of the Bayley Scales of Infant Development-Third Edition and maternal depression at 12 months measured by the EPDS. Analysis The primary analysis will be a modified intention-to-treat analysis. The primary outcomes will be analysed using mixed-effects linear regression. Discussion If this treatment is successful, policymakers could use this model of mental healthcare delivered by lay counsellors within HIV treatment programmes to provide more comprehensive services for families affected by HIV. Trial registration ISRCTN registry # 11284870 (14/11/2017) and SANCTR DOH-27-102020-9097 (17/11/2017).

The Asenze cohort is set in South Africa, a middle-income country impacted by one of the highest global rates of people living with HIV/AIDS and high levels of socioeconomic inequality. This longitudinal population-based cohort of children and their primary caregivers assesses household and caregiver functioning, child health, social well-being, and neuro-development from childhood through adolescence. Almost 1,600 children born at the peak of the human immunodeficiency virus epidemic (2003-2005) were followed (with their primary caregivers) in 3 waves, between 2008 and 2021, at average ages of 5, 7, and 16. Wave 3 is currently underway, having assessed over 1,100 of the original wave 1 children. Wave 4 begins in 2022. The study, with a dyadic structure, uses a broad range of measures, validated in South Africa or recommended for global use, that address physical, social and neuro-development in childhood and adolescence, and the social, health, and psychological status of children’s primary caregivers. The Asenze study deepens our understanding of childhood physical, cognitive, and social abilities and/or disabilities, including risk-taking behaviors, and biological, environmental, and social determinants of health. We anticipate the findings will contribute to the development of community-informed interventions to promote well-being in this South African population and elsewhere.

The benefits of interventions which improve early nutrition are well recognised. These benefits, however, only accrue to the extent that later life circumstances allow. Consequently, in adverse contexts many of the benefits will never be realised, particularly for the most vulnerable, exacerbating inequality. Returns to investment in early nutrition could be improved if we identified contextual factors constraining their realisation and interventions to weaken these. We estimate cost and impact of scaling 10 nutrition interventions for a cohort of South African children born in 2021. We estimate associated declines in malnutrition and mortality, and improvements in years of schooling and future earnings. To examine the role of context over the life-course we estimate benefits with and without additional improvements in school quality and employment opportunities by socio-economic quintile. Scale up reduces national stunting (height for age < = -2SD) rates among children at 24 months by 3.18 percentage points, implying an increase in mean height for age z-score (HAZ) of 0.10, and 53,000 years of additional schooling. Quintile 1 (the poorest) displays the largest decline in stunting, and largest increase in mean HAZ. Estimated total cost of increasing coverage of the interventions for the cohort is US$90 million. The present value of the additional years of schooling is estimated at close to US$2 billion. Cost-benefit ratios suggest the highest return occurs in quintile 5 (1:23). Reducing inequality in school quality closes the gap between quintile 5 and the lower quintiles. If school quality and labour force participation were equal the highest returns are in quintile 1(1:31). An enabling environment is key to maximising human development returns from investing in early nutrition, and to avoid exacerbating existing inequality. Therefore, particularly for children in adverse conditions, it is essential to identify and implement complementary interventions over the life course.

BackgroundThe INSPIRE framework was developed by 10 global agencies as the first global package for preventing and responding to violence against children. The framework includes seven complementary strategies. Delivering all seven strategies is a challenge in resource-limited contexts. Consequently, governments are requesting additional evidence to inform which 'accelerator' provisions can simultaneously reduce multiple types of violence against children.Methods and findingsWe pooled data from two prospective South African adolescent cohorts including Young Carers (2010-2012) and Mzantsi Wakho (2014-2017). The combined sample size was 5,034 adolescents. Each cohort measured six self-reported violence outcomes (sexual abuse, transactional sexual exploitation, physical abuse, emotional abuse, community violence victimisation, and youth lawbreaking) and seven self-reported INSPIRE-aligned protective factors (positive parenting, parental monitoring and supervision, food security at home, basic economic security at home, free schooling, free school meals, and abuse response services). Associations between hypothesised protective factors and violence outcomes were estimated jointly in a sex-stratified multivariate path model, controlling for baseline outcomes and socio-demographics and correcting for multiple-hypothesis testing using the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure. We calculated adjusted probability estimates conditional on the presence of no, one, or all protective factors significantly associated with reduced odds of at least three forms of violence in the path model. Adjusted risk differences (ARDs) and adjusted risk ratios (ARRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were also calculated. The sample mean age was 13.54 years, and 56.62% were female. There was 4% loss to follow-up. Positive parenting, parental monitoring and supervision, and food security at home were each associated with lower odds of three or more violence outcomes (p < 0.05). For girls, the adjusted probability of violence outcomes was estimated to be lower if all three of these factors were present, as compared to none of them: sexual abuse, 5.38% and 1.64% (ARD: -3.74% points, 95% CI -5.31 to -2.16, p < 0.001); transactional sexual exploitation, 10.07% and 4.84% (ARD: -5.23% points, 95% CI -7.26 to -3.20, p < 0.001); physical abuse, 38.58% and 23.85% (ARD: -14.72% points, 95% CI -19.11 to -10.33, p < 0.001); emotional abuse, 25.39% and 12.98% (ARD: -12.41% points, 95% CI -16.00 to -8.83, p < 0.001); community violence victimisation, 36.25% and 28.37% (ARD: -7.87% points, 95% CI -11.98 to -3.76, p < 0.001); and youth lawbreaking, 18.90% and 11.61% (ARD: -7.30% points, 95% CI -10.50 to -4.09, p < 0.001). For boys, the adjusted probability of violence outcomes was also estimated to be lower if all three factors were present, as compared to none of them: sexual abuse, 2.39% to 1.80% (ARD: -0.59% points, 95% CI -2.24 to 1.05, p = 0.482); transactional sexual exploitation, 6.97% to 4.55% (ARD: -2.42% points, 95% CI -4.77 to -0.08, p = 0.043); physical abuse from 37.19% to 25.44% (ARD: -11.74% points, 95% CI -16.91 to -6.58, p < 0.001); emotional abuse from 23.72% to 10.72% (ARD: -13.00% points, 95% CI -17.04 to -8.95, p < 0.001); community violence victimisation from 41.28% to 35.41% (ARD: -5.87% points, 95% CI -10.98 to -0.75, p = 0.025); and youth lawbreaking from 22.44% to 14.98% (ARD -7.46% points, 95% CI -11.57 to -3.35, p < 0.001). Key limitations were risk of residual confounding and not having information on protective factors related to all seven INSPIRE strategies.ConclusionIn this cohort study, we found that positive and supervisory caregiving and food security at home are associated with reduced risk of multiple forms of violence against children. The presence of all three of these factors may be linked to greater risk reduction as compared to the presence of one or none of these factors. Policies promoting action on positive and supervisory caregiving and food security at home are likely to support further efficiencies in the delivery of INSPIRE.

A link between adversity, including low socio-economic status, and behaviours which carry health risks, such as alcohol consumption, has often been observed. The causes of this link are, however, poorly understood, making it difficult to explain why the association is often not linear and why there is so much variability between groups and individuals facing similar adversity. We investigate the use of the concept of emergent properties in explaining the link and its non-linear nature. `Emergent properties' arise from the interaction of factors or items in a high-level system which, as a result, has qualities possessed by none of the individual factors. We apply a mixed methods approach to examine the association of an example emergent property, hope, and alcohol consumption among adolescents in a rural South African site. We found that among adolescents living in similar contexts, there was enough variance in reported levels of hope, that an association with alcohol use could be identified. This result is cause for optimism regarding the potential use of emergent properties in explaining variations in risk behaviour. Improving our measurement of emergent properties is perhaps the biggest challenge facing this approach. More work is needed to take further the task of identifying emergent properties capable of distilling the influence of lower level variables into single measures useful for analysis and policy purposes.

Background: South Africa's Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi inherited an HIV epidemic and a weak public health system when he took office in 2009. His priorities were to establish a national programme to address HIV and to create a system of national health insurance (NHI) to increase access to affordable and high-quality health care. By 2015, Motsoaledi's work on HIV was considered as a success; however, work on the creation of NHI was stymied. Here, we aimed to compare the design, promotion, and implementation of the national HIV programme—a primarily vertical programme—with that of NHI, a horizontal programme. Methods: In January and February, 2015, we conducted 20 semi-structured interviews in South Africa with government leaders, civil society, researchers, health-care practitioners, private insurers, and international non-governmental organisations. We analysed interviews and available quantitative data from government, academic, and industry sources and distilled key themes in two teaching cases. Findings: We identified several key differences between the HIV programme and NHI efforts, including the role that leadership and politics play in health policy and care delivery; the effect of historical, economic, and cultural context on outcomes and leaders' ability to institute change; and the importance of strategy in planning and decision making. We noted both contextual barriers (such as public distrust of government) and catalysts (demand for HIV treatment) in the programmes. Furthermore, the approach used by the Minister of Health sometimes hindered programme success (for example, the exclusion of private insurers from NHI design) and sometimes enabled success (such as the engagement of civil society in the HIV response). For both programmes, the availability or absence of outcomes data affected the Minister's ability to advocate for change and to make strategic decisions about how to invest in health. Interpretation: The comparison of South Africa's well known and effective HIV programme with its stalled NHI efforts—both led by the same person with very different results––sheds light on important considerations when approaching complex, large-scale change. Our analysis of the politics of health systems shows how explicit acknowledgement of the political nature of health will lead to more effective health promotion strategies and policies. Political leaders can either drive or hinder the implementation of evidence-based public health practices. Funding: The Ministerial Leadership in Health Program of the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, and Children's Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF), UK.

This paper examines the incidence and correlates of linear growth catch up in early childhood among stunted children, using a range of definitions of catch up. Catch-up growth between two and five years of age is defined in both absolute terms (i.e. the centimetre height deficit from the healthy reference population mean is reduced) and relative terms (the height-for-age z-score improved or passed the -2SD or -1SD cut-off points). Data from a cohort study from urban South Africa are used to estimate the percentage of children who caught up and the predictors of catch-up growth according to these varying definitions. The results show that our sample of stunted children exhibits catch-up growth regardless of the definition used, however prevalence of catch up is highly sensitive to the way catch up is classified, ranging from 19%-93%. Of the biological, early growth, socioeconomic status and maternal reproductive variables included in the multivariate probit regressions, only a few were found to be consistent predictors of the incidence of catch-up growth. Mother's height was positively correlated with the incidence of catch-up growth and early stunting at one year was associated with a lower likelihood of subsequent catch up.

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) is associated with early child health; its longer-term benefits for child development remain inconclusive. We examine the associations between EBF, HIV exposure, and other maternal/child factors and the cognitive and emotional-behavioural development of children aged 7-11 y.The Vertical Transmission Study (VTS) supported EBF in HIV-positive and HIV-negative women; between 2012 and 2014, HIV-negative VTS children (332 HIV exposed, 574 HIV unexposed) were assessed in terms of cognition (Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children Second Edition [KABC-II]), executive function (Developmental Neuropsychological Assessment Second Edition [NEPSY-II]), and emotional-behavioural functioning (parent-reported Child Behaviour Checklist, [CBCL]). We developed population means by combining the VTS sample with 629 same-aged HIV-negative children from the local demographic platform. For each outcome, we split the VTS sample into scores above or at/below each population mean and modelled each outcome using logistic regression analyses, overall and stratified by child sex. There was no demonstrated effect of EBF on overall cognitive functioning. EBF was associated with fewer conduct disorders overall (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.44 [95% CI 0.3-0.7], p ≤ 0.01), and there was weak evidence of better cognition in boys who had been exclusively breastfed for 2-5 mo versus ≤1 mo (Learning subscale aOR 2.07 [95% CI 1.0-4.3], p = 0.05). Other factors associated with better child cognition were higher maternal cognitive ability (aOR 1.43 [95% CI 1.1-1.9], p = 0.02, Sequential; aOR 1.74 [95% CI 1.3-2.4], p < 0.001, Planning subscales) and crèche attendance (aOR 1.96 [95% CI 1.1-3.5], p = 0.02, Sequential subscale). Factors positively associated with executive function were home stimulation (aOR 1.36 [95% CI 1.0-1.8], p = 0.04, Auditory Attention; aOR 1.35 [95% CI 1.0-1.8], p = 0.05, Response Set) and crèche (aOR 1.74 [95% CI 1.0-3.0], p = 0.05, Animal Sorting). Maternal mental health problems and parenting stress were associated with increased emotional-behavioural problems on the total CBCL (aOR 2.44 [95% CI 1.3-4.6], p = 0.01; aOR 7.04 [95% CI 4.2-11.9], p < 0.001, respectively). Maternal HIV status was not associated with any outcomes in the overall cohort. Limitations include the nonrandomised study design and lack of maternal mental health assessment at the child's birth.EBF was associated with fewer than average conduct disorders and weakly associated with improved cognitive development in boys. Efforts to improve stimulation at home, reduce maternal stress, and enable crèche attendance are likely to improve executive function and emotional-behavioural development of children.

People with TB and/or HIV frequently experience severe economic barriers to health care, including out-of-pocket expenses related to diagnosis and treatment, as well as indirect costs due to loss of income. These barriers can both aggravate economic hardship and prevent or delay diagnosis, treatment and successful outcome, leading to increased transmission, morbidity and mortality. WHO, UNAIDS and the ILO argue that economic support of various kinds is essential to enable vulnerable people to protect themselves from infection, avoid delayed diagnosis and treatment, overcome barriers to adherence, and avert destitution. This paper analyses successful country proposals to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria that include economic support in Rounds 7 and 10; 36 and 20 HIV and TB grants in Round 7 and 32 and 26, respectively, in Round 10. Of these, up to 84 percent included direct or indirect economic support for beneficiaries, although the amount constituted a very small proportion of the total grant. In TB grants, the objectives of economic support were generally clearly stated, and focused on mechanisms to improve treatment uptake and adherence, and the case was most clearly made for MDR-TB patients. In HIV grants, the objectives were much broader in scope, including mitigation of adverse economic and social effects of HIV and its treatment on both patients and families. The analysis shows that economic support is on the radar for countries developing Global Fund proposals, and a wide range of economic support activities are in place. In order to move forward in this area, the wealth of country experience that exists needs to be collated, assessed and disseminated. In addition to trials, operational research and programme evaluations, more precise guidance to countries is needed to inform evidence-based decision about activities that are cost-effective, affordable and feasible.

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) for six months is the mainstay of global child health and the preferred feeding option for HIV-infected mothers for whom replacement feeding is inappropriate. Promotion of community-level EBF requires effective personnel and management to ensure quality counselling and support for women. We present a costing and cost effectiveness analysis of a successful intervention to promote EBF in high HIV prevalence area in South Africa, and implications for scale-up in the province of KwaZulu-Natal.The costing of the intervention as implemented was calculated, in addition to the modelling of the costs and outcomes associated with running the intervention at provincial level under three different scenarios: full intervention (per protocol), simplified version (half the number of visits compared to the full intervention; more clinic compared to home visits) and basic version (one third the number of visits compared to the full intervention; all clinic and no home visits). Implementation of the full scenario costs R95 million ($14 million) per annum; the simplified version R47 million ($7 million) and the basic version R4 million ($2 million). Although the cost of the basic scenario is less than one tenth of the cost of the simplified scenario, modelled effectiveness of the full and simplified versions suggest they would be 10 times more effective compared to the basic intervention. A further analysis modelled the costs per increased month of EBF due to each intervention: R337 ($48), R206 ($29), and R616 ($88) for the full, simplified and basic scenarios respectively. In addition to the average cost effectiveness the incremental cost effectiveness ratios associated with moving from the less effective scenarios to the more effective scenarios were calculated and reported: Nothing-Basic R616 ($88), Basic-Simplified R162 ($23) and Simplified-Full R879 ($126).The simplified scenario, with a combination of clinic and home visits, is the most efficient in terms of cost per increased month of EBF and has the lowest incremental cost effectiveness ratio.