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Severe falciparum malaria has substantially affected human evolution. Genetic association studies of patients with clinically defined severe malaria and matched population controls have helped characterise human genetic susceptibility to severe malaria, but phenotypic imprecision compromises discovered associations. In areas of high malaria transmission, the diagnosis of severe malaria in young children and, in particular, the distinction from bacterial sepsis are imprecise. We developed a probabilistic diagnostic model of severe malaria using platelet and white count data. Under this model, we re-analysed clinical and genetic data from 2220 Kenyan children with clinically defined severe malaria and 3940 population controls, adjusting for phenotype mis-labelling. Our model, validated by the distribution of sickle trait, estimated that approximately one-third of cases did not have severe malaria. We propose a data-tilting approach for case-control studies with phenotype mis-labelling and show that this reduces false discovery rates and improves statistical power in genome-wide association studies.

Genetic surveillance of malaria parasites supports malaria control programmes, treatment guidelines and elimination strategies. Surveillance studies often pose questions about malaria parasite ancestry (e.g. how antimalarial resistance has spread) and employ statistical methods that characterise parasite population structure. Many of the methods used to characterise structure are unsupervised machine learning algorithms which depend on a genetic distance matrix, notably principal coordinates analysis (PCoA) and hierarchical agglomerative clustering (HAC). PCoA and HAC are sensitive to both the definition of genetic distance and algorithmic specification. Importantly, neither algorithm infers malaria parasite ancestry. As such, PCoA and HAC can inform (e.g. via exploratory data visualisation and hypothesis generation), but not answer comprehensively, key questions about malaria parasite ancestry. We illustrate the sensitivity of PCoA and HAC using 393 Plasmodium falciparum whole genome sequences collected from Cambodia and neighbouring regions (where antimalarial resistance has emerged and spread recently) and we provide tentative guidance for the use and interpretation of PCoA and HAC in malaria parasite genetic epidemiology. This guidance includes a call for fully transparent and reproducible analysis pipelines that feature (i) a clearly outlined scientific question; (ii) a clear justification of analytical methods used to answer the scientific question along with discussion of any inferential limitations; (iii) publicly available genetic distance matrices when downstream analyses depend on them; and (iv) sensitivity analyses. To bridge the inferential disconnect between the output of non-inferential unsupervised learning algorithms and the scientific questions of interest, tailor-made statistical models are needed to infer malaria parasite ancestry. In the absence of such models speculative reasoning should feature only as discussion but not as results.

Abstract 1H Nuclear Magnetic Resonance spectroscopy (1H NMR) is increasingly used to measure metabolite concentrations in sets of biological samples for top‐down systems biology and molecular epidemiology. For such purposes, knowledge of the sources of human variation in metabolite concentrations is valuable, but currently sparse. We conducted and analysed a study to create such a resource. In our unique design, identical and non‐identical twin pairs donated plasma and urine samples longitudinally. We acquired 1H NMR spectra on the samples, and statistically decomposed variation in metabolite concentration into familial (genetic and common‐environmental), individual‐environmental, and longitudinally unstable components. We estimate that stable variation, comprising familial and individual‐environmental factors, accounts on average for 60% (plasma) and 47% (urine) of biological variation in 1H NMR‐detectable metabolite concentrations. Clinically predictive metabolic variation is likely nested within this stable component, so our results have implications for the effective design of biomarker‐discovery studies. We provide a power‐calculation method which reveals that sample sizes of a few thousand should offer sufficient statistical precision to detect 1H NMR‐based biomarkers quantifying predisposition to disease.

Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is highly prevalent and has considerable public health impact, but its underlying genetic factors remain elusive. To identify gene networks involved in MetS, we conducted whole-genome expression and genotype profiling on abdominal (ABD) and gluteal (GLU) adipose tissue, and whole blood (WB), from 29 MetS cases and 44 controls. Co-expression network analysis for each tissue independently identified nine, six, and zero MetS-associated modules of coexpressed genes in ABD, GLU, and WB, respectively. Of 8,992 probesets expressed in ABD or GLU, 685 (7.6%) were expressed in ABD and 51 (0.6%) in GLU only. Differential eigengene network analysis of 8,256 shared probesets detected 22 shared modules with high preservation across adipose depots (D(ABD-GLU) = 0.89), seven of which were associated with MetS (FDR P100,000 individuals; rs10282458, affecting expression of RARRES2 (encoding chemerin), was associated with body mass index (BMI) (P = 6.0×10(-4)); and rs2395185, affecting inter-depot differences of HLA-DRB1 expression, was associated with high-density lipoprotein (P = 8.7×10(-4)) and BMI-adjusted waist-to-hip ratio (P = 2.4×10(-4)). Since many genes and their interactions influence complex traits such as MetS, integrated analysis of genotypes and coexpression networks across multiple tissues relevant to clinical traits is an efficient strategy to identify novel associations.

Genome-wide association study (GWAS) data on a disease are increasingly available from multiple related populations. In this scenario, meta-analyses can improve power to detect homogeneous genetic associations, but if there exist ancestry-specific effects, via interactions on genetic background or with a causal effect that co-varies with genetic background, then these will typically be obscured. To address this issue, we have developed a robust statistical method for detecting susceptibility gene-ancestry interactions in multi-cohort GWAS based on closely-related populations. We use the leading principal components of the empirical genotype matrix to cluster individuals into "ancestry groups" and then look for evidence of heterogeneous genetic associations with disease or other trait across these clusters. Robustness is improved when there are multiple cohorts, as the signal from true gene-ancestry interactions can then be distinguished from gene-collection artefacts by comparing the observed interaction effect sizes in collection groups relative to ancestry groups. When applied to colorectal cancer, we identified a missense polymorphism in iron-absorption gene CYBRD1 that associated with disease in individuals of English, but not Scottish, ancestry. The association replicated in two additional, independently-collected data sets. Our method can be used to detect associations between genetic variants and disease that have been obscured by population genetic heterogeneity. It can be readily extended to the identification of genetic interactions on other covariates such as measured environmental exposures. We envisage our methodology being of particular interest to researchers with existing GWAS data, as ancestry groups can be easily defined and thus tested for interactions.

We have performed a metabolite quantitative trait locus (mQTL) study of the (1)H nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy ((1)H NMR) metabolome in humans, building on recent targeted knowledge of genetic drivers of metabolic regulation. Urine and plasma samples were collected from two cohorts of individuals of European descent, with one cohort comprised of female twins donating samples longitudinally. Sample metabolite concentrations were quantified by (1)H NMR and tested for association with genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Four metabolites' concentrations exhibited significant, replicable association with SNP variation (8.6×10(-11)

To understand how miRNAs contribute to the molecular phenotype of adipose tissues and related traits, we performed global miRNA expression profiling in subcutaneous abdominal and gluteal adipose tissue of 70 human subjects and characterised which miRNAs were differentially expressed between these tissues. We found that 12% of the miRNAs were significantly differentially expressed between abdominal and gluteal adipose tissue (FDR adjusted p