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Background: Universal transvaginal cervical length screening has been associated with a reduction in the frequency of preterm birth. However, there is no clinically set standard to guide the performance of a digital cervical examination in the setting of a sonographically short cervix., Objective: To investigate the prevalence of cervical dilation at various midtrimester transvaginal cervical length thresholds. Furthermore, we sought to identify sonographic or clinical characteristics associated with cervical dilation that may inform who would benefit from a digital cervical examination in the setting of a sonographically short cervix., Study Design: This retrospective cohort study was conducted at an academic institution and included women with a singleton gestation and an ultrasonographically detected short cervix (defined as a transvaginally obtained cervical length ≤25 mm) who had a documented digital cervical examination within 1 week of the ultrasonography. Bivariable analyses were used to determine the relationship between cervical length and the presence of cervical dilation. Multivariable logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the relationship between clinical and sonographic risk factors and cervical dilation., Results: Of the 256 women who met eligibility criteria and had a sonographically detected short cervix, 103 (40.2%) were found to be dilated on digital cervical examination. The prevalence of cervical dilation increased as sonographic cervical length decreased; cervical dilation was identified in 15%, 39%, 53%, 64%, and 69% of women with a cervical length between 20.0 and 25.0 mm, 15.0 and 19.9 mm, 10.0 and 14.9 mm, 5.0 and 9.9 mm, and 0.0 and 4.9 mm, respectively. Maternal race or ethnicity (examined as a social construct), insurance status, nulliparity, previous cervical excisional procedure, funneling on ultrasonography, and sonographic cervical length were each associated with cervical dilation. However, including all of these variables into a regression yielded a model with only moderate predictive ability to identify cervical dilation, with receiver operating area under the curve of 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.83)., Conclusion: Consideration should be given to performing a digital cervical examination in the setting of a sonographically short cervix (especially <20 mm) to detect cervical dilation., (Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Background: Due to an ageing population, dengue among older patients is encountered more frequently in many countries. Our study aimed to explore the clinico-laboratory parameters and outcomes among dengue-infected older patients in comparison with younger patients., Methods: This retrospective chart review involved dengue patients with dengue non-structural protein 1 (NS1) antigen positivity admitted to a tertiary hospital in Malaysia from January to July 2015. A comparison was made between older people (aged ≥60 y) and others., Results: Among 406 dengue patients, 43 (10.6%) were older people. Older dengue patients were less likely to present with persistent vomiting (adjusted OR [AOR] 0.247, 95% CI 0.093 to 0.656, p=0.005), while restlessness and confusion were more common at presentation (AOR 3.356, 95% CI 1.024 to 11.003, p=0.046). Older patients had significantly lower albumin upon admission (38 vs 40 g/L, p=0.036) and during hospital stay (35 vs 37 g/L, p=0.015). Compared with younger patients, older patients were more likely to have experienced nadir platelet counts of <50×109/L (AOR 2.897, 95% CI to 1.176 to 7.137, p=0.021). They were also more likely to require an extended hospital stay (AOR 3.547, 95% CI 1.575 to 7.986, p=0.002)., Conclusions: Diagnosis of dengue in older people may be challenging because of atypical presentations. Increased vigilance is necessary as there is an increased tendency to develop severe thrombocytopenia, hypoalbuminemia and prolonged hospitalisation in older people., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.)

Background: Left ventricular thrombus (LVT) has a 5% incidence after anterior ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Multiple risk factors predispose to LVT formation, including left ventricular systolic dysfunction and infarct size, however measurable predictors during index left heart catheterization (LHC) have not been determined., Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of patients presenting between January 2010 and September 2017 with anterior STEMI who had in-hospital transthoracic echocardiography (TTE). LHC variables that were assessed included coronary anatomy, location of culprit stenosis, presence of diffuse stenosis, number of severely diseased vessels, apical akinesis on left ventriculogram (LVG), left ventricular end diastolic pressure, and success of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI)., Results: Of 598 consecutive anterior STEMI patients, records and inpatient TTE results were available in 425 patients. The incidence of LVT was 6.8% (n = 29). After multivariate adjustment, severe triple vessel coronary disease (OR = 8.27, CI = 2.97-23.00, p ≤0.001), apical akinesis on LVG (OR = 6.74, CI = 1.48-30.73, p = 0.014), wrap-around left anterior descending (LAD) anatomy (OR = 5.10, CI = 1.97-13.23, p = 0.001), and failure of recanalization after PCI (OR = 3.94, CI = 1.06-14.66, p = 0.04) were predictors for LVT formation. The combined negative predictive value (NPV) for the absence of these four indices was 99.2%., Conclusion: Severe triple vessel disease, apical akinesis on LVG during index admission, wrap-around LAD, and failure of recanalization after PCI are associated with increased risk of LVT formation after anterior STEMI. The high NPV for the absence of these indices could serve as a risk stratification tool for LVT risk to guide early TTE utilization., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The foundation programme is a 2-year training programme for newly qualified doctors and aims to bridge the gap between medical school and specialty training. The pandemic led to some major disruptions to foundation training. As foundation trainees, we encountered new challenges: there were reduced learning opportunities and our future paths became uncertain with changes to specialty training applications and membership exams. However, it is said that every crisis creates new opportunities and is a test of our resilience and innovativeness. There was the adoption of novel teaching methods, new research opportunities, increased importance given to teamwork and support for our wellbeing and mental health. We learnt lessons from this crisis that we should take forward to improve foundation training for the future., (© Royal College of Physicians 2021. All rights reserved.)

Background: Remnant radioiodine ablation is discouraged in low-risk differentiated thyroid cancer because it confers no survival advantage. The impact of remnant radioiodine ablation on health-related quality of life in these patients is not well described. We hypothesized remnant radioiodine ablation is associated with lower health-related quality of life in early-stage differentiated thyroid cancer survivors., Methods: A retrospective matched-pair analysis was conducted in stage I differentiated thyroid cancer survivors recruited from a thyroid cancer support group. Respondents self-reported via online survey. Dysphonia and dysphagia were reported via Likert scale. Health-related quality of life was evaluated using Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) 29-item profile. Respondents who received remnant radioiodine ablation were matched for age, sex, race, and years since diagnosis with respondents who did not receive remnant radioiodine ablation. PROMIS t-scores were compared between remnant radioiodine ablation and nonremnant radioiodine ablation groups, and among those with or without surgical complications., Results: One hundred and twenty-two pairs were matched. There was no significant difference in incidence of self-reported hypocalcemia, infection, dysphonia, or dysphagia between remnant radioiodine ablation and no remnant radioiodine ablation groups. There was no significant difference in mean PROMIS t-scores. Of respondents reporting normal preoperative voice and swallowing, there were no significant differences in postprocedural outcomes or PROMIS scores. Regardless of remnant radioiodine ablation treatment, those with surgical complications of hypocalcemia, dysphonia, or dysphagia reported worse PROMIS scores across multiple domains. Remnant radioiodine ablation-associated xerostomia was associated with worse PROMIS scores across multiple domains., Conclusion: This is the first study to use PROMIS measures to evaluate the association between remnant radioiodine ablation and health-related quality of life in early-stage differentiated thyroid cancer survivors treated surgically. Surgical and remnant radioiodine ablation-associated complications were associated with significantly worse PROMIS scores across multiple domains., (Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Background: Medical procedures are traditionally taught informally at patients' bedside through observation and practice using the adage "see one, do one, teach one." This lack of formalized training can cause trainees to be unprepared to perform procedures independently. Simulation based education (SBE) increases competence, reduces complications, and decreases costs. We developed, implemented, and evaluated the efficacy of a right heart catheterization (RHC) SBE curriculum., Methods: The RHC curriculum consisted of a pretest, video didactics, deliberate practice, and a posttest. Pre-and posttest skills examinations consisted of a dichotomous 43-item checklist on RHC skills and a 14-item hemodynamic waveform quiz. We enrolled two groups of fellows: 6 first-year, novice cardiology fellows at Northwestern University in their first month of training, and 11 second- and third-year fellows who had completed traditional required, level I training in RHC. We trained the first-year fellows at the beginning of the 2018-2019 year using the SBE curriculum and compared them to the traditionally-trained cardiology fellows who did not complete SBE., Results: The SBE-trained fellows significantly improved RHC skills, hemodynamic knowledge, and confidence from pre- to posttesting. SBE-trained fellows performed similarly to traditionally-trained fellows on simulated RHC skills checklists (88.4% correct vs. 89.2%, p = .84), hemodynamic quizzes (94.0% correct vs. 86.4%, p = .12), and confidence (79.4 vs. 85.9 out of 100, p = .15) despite less clinical experience., Conclusions: A SBE curriculum for RHC allowed novice cardiology fellows to achieve level I skills and knowledge at the beginning of fellowship and can train cardiology fellows before patient contact., (© 2020 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Purpose: We investigate ovarian cancer incidence between 1968 and 2012 in Singapore, a multiethnic Asian city state., Methods: Aggregated data of ovarian epithelial cancer numbers and estimated person-years from 1968 to 2012 were obtained from Singapore Cancer Registry. Age-Period-Cohort modelling was performed., Results: The age-standardised incidence rate of ovarian cancer increased from 5.8 to 12.5 per 100,000 per year between 1968 and 2012, while the age-standardised mortality rate has remained stable. This increase was higher among Malays (5.1 to 14.0 per 100,000 per year), compared to Chinese and Indians.  Serous carcinoma showed the greatest increase in incidence from 0.4 to 3.4 per 100,000 per year.  Period effects were seen in the ovarian cancer incidence trend in Chinese women, but not Malay and Indian women. Clear cell and mucinous carcinoma subtypes were more common in Chinese than in Malay and Indian women. Stage at diagnosis for the years 2003-2010 differed by subtype, and the majority of patients with serous carcinomas presented at a later stage compared to those with clear cell or mucinous carcinomas., Conclusion: Ovarian cancer incidence rates have doubled in 40 years in Singapore. There were ethnic differences in incidence rates and ovarian cancer subtypes.

Background: This study evaluated reproductive factors and obesity in relation to colorectal cancer (CRC) in Asian women., Methods: The study cohort comprised 28191 women who were recruited between 1994 and 1997. During 18 years of prospective follow-up, 404 and 212 women developed colon cancer (CC) and rectal cancer (RC) respectively. Cox proportional hazards regression was used., Results: Menstrual factors were not related to the risk of CRC, CC and RC. Gravidity and parity were not associated with CRC or RC, but women who were ever pregnant had a HR of 1.87 (95%CI 1.12-3.14) compared to those never pregnant, and parous women had a HR of 1.79 (95% CI 1.10-2.92) compared to nulliparous women for CC. Use of oral contraceptives and hormone replacement therapy were not associated with CRC, CC or RC. Compared to women with normal BMI, women who were obese had HRs of 1.39 (95%CI 1.12-1.74) and 1.64 (95%CI 1.24-2.16) for CRC and CC respectively. No increased risk was seen for RC. Adjusted for BMI, for colonic cancer, women in the highest quartile for Waist Circumference had a HR of 2.14 (95%CI 1.42-3.25) compared to the lowest quartile, for Waist Hip Ratio, a HR of 1.74 (95%CI 1.30-2.34), and for Waist-Height ratio, a HR of 1.80 (1.26-2.57). None of these measures were significantly associated with RC., Conclusions: Obesity is positively associated with CC but not RC, and abdominal obesity exerts an independent effect. Reproductive factors had at best a weak effect on CC and RC., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Transplant rates in Singapore have been falling and there is limited information on baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes of living kidney donors nationally. This study aimed to determine the safety of living kidney donor transplant in Singapore by exploring the proportion of donors that meets international selection guidelines and describing short-term clinical outcomes., Materials and Methods: We analysed 472 donors who underwent nephrectomies from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2014 from the Donor Care Registry. We described donor characteristics against 5 international guidelines and measured post-nephrectomy outcomes in 150 local donors for up to 24 months. A multivariate analysis was performed to determine the baseline variables associated with poorer outcomes., Results: There were more foreign than local donors, with differences in gender and hospital types. Selection was generally aligned with international recommendations although 3.0% (using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology [CKD-EPI] equation) to 8.5% (using radionuclide and creatinine clearance methods) of donors had inappropriate baseline estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) forage. Post-procedure, many foreign donors were lost to follow-up. Over 24 months, eGFR decreased by 33.8% from baseline before recovering gradually to 29.6%. During this period, only 2 donors were admitted for renal or urological conditions and there were no cases of end-stage renal failure or deaths. A lower baseline eGFR (HR: 1.05; 95% Cl, 1.02 to 1.09) and older age (HR: 1.04; 95% Cl, 1.00 to 1.08) were associated with a post-nephrectomy eGFR of less than 60 mL/kg/1.73 m 2 ., Conclusion: Kidney donation is safe in Singapore. Donor selection is in keeping with international guidelines and short-term outcomes are comparable to other cohorts.

The relationship between body mass index (BMI) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is confounded by co-morbidities associated with both conditions. Furthermore, the association at low range BMI is controversial. We studied this association in the Singapore Chinese Health Study, a population-based prospective cohort that recruited Singaporean Chinese men and women 45-74 years of age from 1993 to 1998. Self-reported weight, height, lifestyle factors, usual diet, and medical history were collected via an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Incident ESRD cases were identified via record linkage with the nationwide ESRD registry. The computed Cox proportional hazard regression was adjusted for potential risk factors. After an average follow-up of 15.5 years, 827 incident ESRD cases were identified. Compared with a normal BMI of 18.5 to under 23 kg/m 2 , the hazard ratios and (95% confidence intervals) of ESRD risk for BMIs under 18.5, 23 to under 27.5, and 27.5 kg/m 2 or more were 0.54 (0.37-0.79), 1.40 (1.20-1.64) and 2.13 (1.74-2.59), respectively. This significantly trended, linear, dose-dependent association was only present among those with no history of diabetes, hypertension, coronary heart disease, and stroke at baseline, but not significantly among those with any of these co-morbidities. Thus, BMI itself is a risk factor for ESRD in the general population and this association is present in those without pre-existing diabetes, hypertension, coronary heart disease, and stroke., (Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: Early reperfusion therapy in the treatment of ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients can improve outcomes. Silent myocardial infarction is associated with poor prognosis, but little is known about its effect on treatment delays. We aimed to characterize STEMI patients presenting without complaints of pain to the emergency departments (EDs) in Singapore., Methods: Retrospective data were requested from the Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry (SMIR), a national level registry in Singapore. Painless STEMI was defined as the absence of pain (chest, back, shoulder, jaw, and epigastric pain) during ED presentation. The primary outcome was door-to-balloon (D2B) time, defined as the earliest time a patient arrived in the ED to balloon inflation. Secondary outcomes were 1-month and 1-year mortality and occurrence of adverse events., Results: From January 2010 to December 2012, the SMIR collected 6412 cases; 10.9% of patients presented without any pain. These patients were older (median age =75 v. 58 years old), more likely to be females (39.9% v. 16.1%), Chinese (74.9% v. 62.7%), obese (median body mass index [BMI] =24.5 v. 22.1), and with history of hypertension (71.1% v. 54.6%), diabetes mellitus (48.6% v. 37.0%), and acute myocardial infarction (20.0% v. 12.3%). They had a longer median D2B (80.5 v. 63 minutes, p<0.001) and a higher occurrence of 30-day (38.4% v. 5.7%) and 1-year mortality rates (47.3% v. 8.5%)., Conclusion: A small proportion of STEMI patients presented without any pain to the ED. They tended to have a higher D2B and risks of mortality. Targeted effort is required to improve diagnostic and treatment efficiency in this group.

Objectives: The relationship between body mass index (BMI) with mortality risk, in particular the BMI category associated with the lowest all-cause and CVD-and-stroke mortality and the BMI threshold for defining overweight or obesity in older persons is controversial. This study investigated the age-dependent associations of BMI categories with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) and stroke mortality., Method: Prospective cohort study (Singapore Longitudinal Ageing Studies) of older adults aged 55 and above, followed up from 2003 to 2011. Participants were 2605 Chinese with baseline BMI and other variables. Outcome Measurement: Mortality hazard ratios (HR) for all-cause and CVD and stroke mortality., Results: Overall, BMI showed a U-shaped relationship with all-cause and CVD and stroke mortality, being lowest at Normal Weight-II category (BMI 23.0-24.9 kg/m2). Most evidently among the middle-aged (55-64 years), all-cause mortality risks relative to Normal Weight-II were elevated for underweight (30.0; HR = 4.05,p = 0.0423). Among the old (≥65 years), however, Overweight and Obese categories were not significantly associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR from 0.98 to 1.29), but Overweight-Obese was associated with increased CVD and stroke mortality (HR = 10.0, p = 0.0086)., Conclusion: BMI showed a U-shaped relationship with mortality. Among older persons aged 65 and above, the overweight-or-obese category of BMI was not associated with excess all-cause mortality.

Aims: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke are important causes of mortality and morbidity. Our aims are to determine the comparative epidemiology of AMI and ischaemic stroke; and examine the differences in cardiovascular outcomes or mortality occurring after an AMI or stroke., Methods and Results: The Singapore National Registry of Diseases Office collects countrywide data on AMI, stroke, and mortality. Index events of AMI and ischaemic stroke between 2007 and 2012 were identified. Patients were then matched for occurrences of subsequent AMI, stroke, or death within 1-year of the index event. There were 33 222 patients with first-ever AMI and 20 982 with first-ever stroke. AMI patients were significantly more likely to be men (66.3% vs. 56.9%), non-Chinese (32.1% vs. 24.1%), and smokers (43.1% vs. 38.6%), but less likely to have hypertension (65.6% vs. 79%) and hyperlipidaemia (61.1% vs. 65.5%), compared with stroke patients. In total 6.8% of the AMI patients had recurrent AMI, whereas 4.8% of the stroke patients had recurrent stroke within 1 year; 31.7% of the AMI patients died, whereas 17.1% of the ischaemic stroke patients died within 1 year. Older age, Malay ethnicity, and diabetes mellitus were statistically significant risk factors for all-cause mortality and for the composite endpoint of AMI, stroke, and all-cause mortality, at 1 year., Conclusions: Risk profiles of patients with AMI and stroke are significantly different. Patients suffer recurrent events in vascular territories similar to the index event. Age and diabetes mellitus are significant predictors of recurrent vascular events and mortality., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common and lethal cancers globally. With advances in therapy for chronic viral hepatitis, changing social circumstances, and increasing practice of HCC surveillance, the epidemiology of HCC is expected to change over time. We explored the temporal trends in HCC in Singapore, a multiethnic Asian country, over the last 3 decades. Patients with HCC were prospectively enrolled and stratified into two cohorts (C1, 1988-2002; C2, 2003-2016). Patient and tumor characteristics, management, and survival were compared between the two cohorts, and a survival census was performed on October 31, 2015. There were 1,401 patients, and the mean age at diagnosis of HCC for C1 and C2 was 60.1 and 63.5 years, respectively. Male patient preponderance decreased significantly, with the male to female ratio falling from 5.2:1 to 3.9:1 between C1 and C2. Hepatitis B, although still the predominant risk factor for HCC, showed a significant decline from C1 to C2 (76.5% to 68.2%), while the nonviral etiology increased significantly over the same period (14.4% versus 25.0%, respectively). Significantly more patients in C2 than C1 were diagnosed through surveillance (39.2% versus 11.3%, respectively) and had better physical performance (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 0, 62.1% versus 20.4%, respectively). While Child-Pugh status was comparable, significantly more patients in C2 than C1 had early stage disease (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer 0-A, 39.5% versus 7.4%, respectively), which translated into significantly higher median survival (18.6 months versus 3.8 months, respectively). Conclusion : Over the past 3 decades, hepatitis B-related HCC has been decreasing while HCC due to nonviral etiology has been increasing significantly. Surveillance to diagnose early stage HCC is important in improving the outcome of HCC. ( Hepatology Communications 2017;1:564-571).

Background: The benefit of early dialysis initiation remains controversial with a paucity of data in Asians. Therefore, we undertook this study to investigate the association between timing of initiation of dialysis and mortality in Singapore., Methods: The study used data from the Singapore Renal Registry database on 3286 patients with incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD) who commenced maintenance dialysis between January 2008 and December 2011. The data was further linked with the National Death Registry to acquire survival information until December 2013. We classified serum creatinine-based, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation at the start of dialysis into 3 categories: Early (≥10 ml/min/1.73m 2 ), intermediate (5 to <10 ml/min/1.73m 2 ) and late (<5 ml/min/1.73m 2 )., Results: In the unadjusted analysis, both early and intermediate dialysis initiation groups were at greater risk of death relative to late dialysis (Early: HR = 2.47; Intermediate: HR = 1.54). In the multivariate model, a significant interaction was detected between age and eGFR at dialysis initiation (p = 0.04). Adjusted mortality risk progressively increased with earlier initiation of dialysis for patients aged 18-54 years (p = 0.006) and aged 55 to 64 years (p < 0.001), and no statistically significant difference was observed for patients aged 65 years or older (p = 0.12)., Conclusions: Early versus later initiation of dialysis was associated with significantly higher risk of mortality in Singapore's non-elderly population, and appeared to offer no survival advantage among the elderly.

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) after cardiac surgery is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The long-term association between AKI and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in an Asian population is unknown. Given the high prevalence of diabetes and a younger age of presentation for cardiac surgery, it is important to track this progression of kidney disease. Therefore, we studied the long-term risk of ESRD and mortality in our Asian patients who developed AKI after cardiac surgery., Methods: With ethics approval, we prospectively recruited 3008 patients who underwent cardiac surgery in Singapore between 2008 and 2012, and followed them up till 2014. ESRD and mortality information were obtained from the Singapore Renal Registry and Singapore Registry of Births and Deaths respectively. AKI was defined using the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) criteria, and ESRD was defined as stage 5 chronic kidney disease requiring renal replacement therapy. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze associations between AKI and the primary outcome of ESRD and the secondary outcome of death., Results: The AKI incidence was 29.1%. During a mean follow-up of 4.4 ± 2.8 years, 0.9% developed ESRD. The hazard ratio (HR) for developing ESRD was 4.7 (95% C.I. = 1.736-12.603, p = 0.002) for AKIN stage 1 patients, and 5.8 (95% C.I. = 1.769-18.732, p = 0.004) for AKIN stage 2 and 3 patients; while the HR for mortality was 1.7 (95% C.I. = 1.165-2.571, p = 0.007) for AKIN stage 1 patients, and 2.5 (95% C.I. = 1.438-4.229, p < 0.001) for AKIN stage 2 and 3 patients., Conclusions: AKI is associated with ESRD and mortality after cardiac surgery in our Asian population. The trajectory from AKI to ESRD is rapid within 5 years of cardiac surgery. A concerted periodic follow-up assessment is advocated for AKI patients post-cardiac surgery.

CVD risk prediction in diabetics is imperfect, as risk models are derived mainly from the general population. We investigate whether the addition of retinopathy and retinal vascular caliber improve CVD prediction beyond established risk factors in persons with diabetes. We recruited participants from the Singapore Malay Eye Study (SiMES, 2004-2006) and Singapore Prospective Study Program (SP2, 2004-2007), diagnosed with diabetes but no known history of CVD at baseline. Retinopathy and retinal vascular (arteriolar and venular) caliber measurements were added to risk prediction models derived from Cox regression model that included established CVD risk factors and serum biomarkers in SiMES, and validated this internally and externally in SP2. We found that the addition of retinal parameters improved discrimination compared to the addition of biochemical markers of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP). This was even better when the retinal parameters and biomarkers were used in combination (C statistic 0.721 to 0.774, p = 0.013), showing improved discrimination, and overall reclassification (NRI = 17.0%, p = 0.004). External validation was consistent (C-statistics from 0.763 to 0.813, p = 0.045; NRI = 19.11%, p = 0.036). Our findings show that in persons with diabetes, retinopathy and retinal microvascular parameters add significant incremental value in reclassifying CVD risk, beyond established risk factors., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Objectives: Symptom-to-door time (S2D) is one of the important components of ischaemic time, which might affect the infarct size and outcomes of acute myocardial infarction. The aim of the present study was to identify patients' characteristics associated with delayed symptom-onset-to-arrival at EDs in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients in Singapore., Methods: Retrospective data of STEMI patients presenting to the ED of all public hospitals with onsite primary percutaneous coronary intervention facilities between 2010 and 2012 were obtained from the Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry. Based on the S2D of 120 min, characteristics of patients were compared between short S2D (≤120 min) and long S2D (>120 min). Multivariate logistic and linear regression analyses were performed., Results: Out of 3848 patients, 1682 patients had an S2D of ≤120 min, and 2166 had an S2D >120 min. In the multivariate analyses, older age, Malay ethnicity, diabetes mellitus, presenting symptoms of back and epigastric pain were independently associated with long S2D. Patients who utilised the emergency medical services, presented after office hours and with symptoms of chest pain, breathlessness, diaphoresis and past history of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty/primary percutaneous coronary intervention, were independently associated with short S2D. Patients with long S2D had lower probability of receiving reperfusion treatment with delayed symptom-to-balloon and door-to-balloon time and higher probabilities of complications and mortality., Conclusion: The present study shows that longer S2D was associated with older age, ethnicity, diabetes mellitus, delay in receiving early reperfusion treatment and poorer prognosis., (© 2016 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.)

Randomized controlled trials suggest that protein restriction may retard the progression of CKD toward ESRD. However, the effects of dietary protein intake level and the food sources of dietary protein on the risk of ESRD in the general population remain unclear. We investigated these effects in the Singapore Chinese Health Study, a prospective population-based cohort that recruited 63,257 Chinese adults aged 45-74 years from 1993 to 1998. We collected habitual diet information via a validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire and identified ESRD via record linkage with a nationwide registry. In all, 951 cases of ESRD occurred over a mean follow-up of 15.5 years. Regarding total protein intake, compared with the lowest quartile, the three higher quartiles combined had a hazard ratio for ESRD of 1.24 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.05 to 1.46), but the dose-dependent association across the quartiles was not statistically significant (P trend =0.16). Red meat intake strongly associated with ESRD risk in a dose-dependent manner (hazard ratio for highest quartile versus lowest quartile,1.40 [95% CI, 1.15 to 1.71; P trend <0.001]). Intake of poultry, fish, eggs, or dairy products did not associate with risk of ESRD. In substitution analysis, replacing one serving of red meat with other food sources of protein associated with a maximum relative risk reduction of 62.4% (95% CI, 33.1 to 78.9; P<0.01). Our study shows that red meat intake may increase the risk of ESRD in the general population and substituting alternative sources of protein may reduce the incidence of ESRD., (Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.)

Background: In 1985 we reported that 11% of a cohort of 151 patients with IgA nephritis (IgAN) had developed end-stage renal disease (ESRD) after a follow-up period of 5 years. 15 years later, 35% had developed ESRD., Methods: We retrieved 125 stored renal biopsy paraffin blocks of the original cohort. From these, 102 patients were included in the present study and scored according to the Oxford classification as 21 specimens with less than 8 glomeruli were excluded and in 2 others, tissue samples were too tiny for a re-block. ESRD was ascertained by linking the study cohort to the Singapore Renal Registry at the National Registry of Diseases Office., Results: Renal survival curves for each of the Oxford MEST lesions: endocapillary proliferation (E) (p < 0.04), segmental glomerulosclerosis (S) (p < 0.05), tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis (p < 0.0001) were significantly associated with ESRD. Mesangial hypercellularity, less commonly associated with progressive chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the study, was independently associated with ESRD at 30 years (p < 0.03). In this cohort, E and S were associated with lower eGFR at presentation and doubling of serum creatinine in the first 5 years. This study's initial 5 years was representative of the "natural history" of IgAN since no renin-angiotensin system (RAS) blockers or immunosuppression were administered. This represents the early phase of disease progression. E and S may be considered "early disease activity predictors"., Conclusion: Mesangial hypercellularity and tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis (M1 and T1/T2 lesion) of the Oxford classification independently predicted long term ESRD.
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Aim: To provide a comprehensive evaluation of the quality of the data at the Singapore Cancer Registry (SCR)., Methods: Quantitative and semi-quantitative methods were used to assess the comparability, completeness, accuracy and timeliness of data for the period of 1968-2013, with focus on the period 2008-2012., Results: The SCR coding and classification systems follow international standards. The overall completeness was estimated at 98.1% using the flow method and 97.5% using the capture-recapture method, for the period of 2008-2012. For the same period, 91.9% of the cases were morphologically verified (site-specific range: 40.4-100%) with 1.1% DCO cases. The under-reporting in 2011 and 2012 due to timely publication was estimated at 0.03% and 0.51% respectively., Conclusion: This review shows that the processes in place at the SCR yields data which are internationally comparable, relatively complete, valid, and timely, allowing for greater confidence in the use of quality data in the areas of cancer prevention, treatment and control., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: Early activation of emergency medical services (EMS), rapid transport, and treatment of patients experiencing ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) can improve outcomes. The Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry (SMIR) is a nation-wide registry that collects data on STEMI. We aimed to determine the prevalence, predictors, and outcomes of EMS utilization among STEMI patients presenting to Emergency Departments (ED) in Singapore., Methods: We analyzed STEMI patients enrolled by SMIR from January 2010 to December 2012. We excluded patients who were transferred, developed STEMI in-hospital or suffered cardiac arrest out-of-hospital or in the ED. Primary outcome was process-of-care timings. Secondary outcomes included the occurrence of cardiac complications. Multivariate analysis was used to examine independent factors associated with EMS transport., Results: 6412 patients were enrolled into the study; 4667 patients were eligible for analysis. 49.8% of patients utilized EMS transport. EMS transport was associated with higher rate of reperfusion therapy (74.3% vs. 65.1%, p < 0.01), shorter median symptom-to-door time (119 vs. 182 minutes, p < 0.01), door-to-balloon time (59 vs. 70 minutes, p < 0.01), and symptom-to-balloon time (185 vs. 233 minutes, p < 0.01). EMS transport had more patients with Killip Class 4 (7.5% vs 4.0%, p < 0.01) and was associated with greater presentation of heart failure, arrhythmias, and complete heart block. Independent predictors of EMS transport were age, syncope and Killip score; after-office-hour presentation was a negative predictor., Conclusion: Less than half of STEMI patients utilized EMS and EMS patients had faster receipt of initial reperfusion therapies. Targeted public education to reduce time to treatment may improve the care of STEMI patients.

Microalbuminuria is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but not all individuals require treatment. Retinal microvascular abnormalities and microalbuminuria reflect early systemic microvascular changes. We examined the joint effect of retinal abnormalities and microalbuminuria on CVD risk in an Asian cohort. We conducted a prospective, population-based study. Retinal abnormalities were defined as presence of retinopathy and/or retinal venular widening. Microalbuminuria was defined as urinary albumin: creatinine ratio between 30-300 mg/g. Incident CVD was defined as newly diagnosed clinical stroke, acute myocardial infarction or CVD death. Cox regression models were performed to determine the associations between retinal abnormalities and microalbuminuria with risk of CVD, while controlling for established risk factors. 3,496 participants (aged ≥ 40) were free of prevalent CVD. During the follow-up (5.8 years), 126 (3.60%) participants developed CVD. Persons presenting with both retinal abnormalities and microalbuminuria were 6.71 times (95% CI, 2.68, 16.79) as likely to have incident CVD compared with those without either abnormalities. There was a significant interaction effect between retinal abnormalities and microalbuminuria on incident CVD. Assessment of retinal abnormalities in patients with microalbuminuria may provide additional value in identifying persons at risk of developing CVD.

Background: Seatbelt non-compliance is a problem in middle income countries, and little is known about seatbelt compliance in populations with a high proportion of non-residents. This study analyses the profile of seatbelt non-compliance in Singapore based on trauma registry data from five of the six public hospitals., Methods: This is a cross-sectional study of seatbelt compliance of patients aged over 18 years, attending the emergency departments of five public hospitals in Singapore after road collisions from 2011-2014. Seatbelt data was obtained from paramedic and patient history., Results: There were 4,576 patients studied. Most were Singapore citizens (83.4 %) or permanent residents (2.4 %), with the largest non-resident groups from Malaysia, India, and China. Overall seatbelt compliance was 82.1 %. On univariate analysis, seatbelt compliance was higher in older patients (OR 1.02, 95 % CI 1.001-1.021, p < 0.0001); drivers, followed by front passengers (OR 0.65, 95 % CI 0.51-0.83, p < 0.0001), were more compliant than rear passengers (OR 0.08, 0.06-0.09, p < 0.0001); occupants of larger vehicle types (buses, heavy transport vehicles, minibuses and vans) were more non-compliant compared to occupants of private cars and taxis. Morning peak travel (0700 h-0900 h) and being a non-resident were other risk factors for non-compliance. On multivariable analysis, older age (OR 1.01, 95 % CI 1.001-1.014, p = 0.03) was associated with compliance, while non-residents from China (OR 0.43, 95 % CI 0.18-0.99, p = 0.05), seat position (front passenger compared to driver, OR 0.64, 95 % CI 0.48-0.85, p = 0.002; rear passenger compared to driver, OR 0.067, 95 % CI 0.05-0.09, p < 0.0001), vehicle type (bus compared to car, OR 0.04, 95 % CI 0.017-0.11, p < 0.0001, van compared to car, OR 0.55, 95 % CI 0.36-0.83, p = 0.004), and travel at morning peak periods were independent predictors of seatbelt non-compliance. When the sub-group of drivers was analysed, only vehicle type was a significant predictor of seatbelt compliance, with bus drivers least likely to be compliant to seatbelts (multivariable analysis, OR 0.057 compared to cars, 95 % CI 0.019-0.18, p < 0.0001)., Conclusions: While overall seatbelt compliance in our study is high, efforts can be made to increase compliance for morning rush hour passengers, rear seat passengers, and occupants of buses, heavy transport vehicles, and vans or pickups.

Background: Anatomy-based injury severity scores are commonly used with physiological scores for reporting severity of injury in a standardized manner. However, there is lack of consensus on choice of scoring system, with the commonly used injury severity score (ISS) performing poorly for certain sub-groups, eg head-injured patients. We hypothesized that adding a dichotomous variable for polytrauma (yes/no for Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) scores of 3 or more in at least two body regions) to the New Injury Severity Score (NISS) would improve the prediction of in-hospital mortality in injured patients, including head-injured patients-a subgroup that has a disproportionately high mortality. Our secondary hypothesis was that the ISS over-estimates the risk of death in polytrauma patients, while the NISS under-estimates it., Methods: Univariate and multivariable analysis was performed on retrospective cohort data of blunt injured patients aged 18 and over with an ISS over 9 from the Singapore National Trauma Registry from 2011-2013. Model diagnostics were tested using discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic). All models included age, gender, and comorbidities., Results: Our results showed that the polytrauma and NISS model outperformed the other models (polytrauma and ISS, NISS alone or ISS alone) in predicting 30-day and in-hospital mortality. The NISS underestimated the risk of death for patients with polytrauma, while the ISS overestimated the risk of death for these patients. When used together with the NISS and polytrauma, categorical variables for deranged physiology (systolic blood pressure of 90 mmHg or less, GCS of 8 or less) outperformed the traditional 'ISS and RTS (Revised Trauma Score)' model, with a c-statistic of greater than 0.90. This could be useful in cases when the RTS cannot be scored due to missing respiratory rate., Discussion: The NISS and polytrauma model is superior to current scores for prediction of 30-day and in-hospital mortality. We propose that this score replace the ISS or NISS in institutions using AIS-based scores., Conclusions: Adding polytrauma to the NISS or ISS improves prediction of 30-day mortality. The superiority of the NISS or ISS depends on the proportion of polytrauma and head-injured patients in the study population.

In recent decades, several Western countries have reported an increase in oropharyngeal and anal cancers caused by human papillomavirus (HPV). Trends in HPV-associated cancers in Asia have not been as well described. We describe the epidemiology of potentially HPV-related cancers reported to the Singapore Cancer Registry from 1968-2012. Analysis included 998 oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), 183 anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC) and 8,019 invasive cervical cancer (ICC) cases. Additionally, 368 anal non-squamous cell carcinoma (ANSCC) and 2,018 non-oropharyngeal head and neck carcinoma (non-OP HNC) cases were included as comparators. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were determined by gender and ethnicity (Chinese, Malay and Indian). Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate annual percentage change (APC) in incidence. OPSCC incidence increased in both genders (men 1993-2012, APC = 1.9%, p<0.001; women 1968-2012, APC = 2.0%, p = 0.01) and was 5 times higher in men than women. In contrast, non-OP HNC incidence declined between 1968-2012 among men (APC = -1.6%, p<0.001) and women (APC = -0.4%, p = 0.06). ASCC and ANSCC were rare (ASR = 0.2 and 0.7 per 100,000 person-years, respectively) and did not change significantly over time except for increasing ANSCCs in men (APC = 2.8%, p<0.001). ICC was the most common HPV-associated cancer (ASR = 19.9 per 100,000 person-years) but declined significantly between 1968-2012 (APC = -2.4%). Incidence of each cancer varied across ethnicities. Similar to trends in Western countries, OPSCC incidence increased in recent years, while non-OP HNC decreased. ICC remains the most common HPV-related cancer in Singapore, but Pap screening programs have led to consistently decreasing incidence.

Objective: To evaluate participation rates and performance indicators in the National Breast Cancer Screening Programme, BreastScreen Singapore (BSS)., Methods: Data on women aged 40-69 screened in the period 2002-2009 was obtained from BSS and from the Singapore Cancer Registry. Participation rates and performance indicators (including screen detection rates, small tumour detection rates, recall rates, accuracy and interval cancer rates) were examined., Results: BSS participation rate has remained above 10% since 2005. Based on health surveys, national mammography rates have increased from 29.7% before BSS to 39.6% in 2010 after BSS. Performance indicators, with the exception of recall rates, specificity, and interval cancer rate (for first screen), generally improved from 2002-2006 to 2007-2009 and are comparable with organized breast screening programmes in other developed countries., Conclusion: BSS breast cancer screening coverage and rescreen rates in Singapore could be improved. Mechanisms to monitor recall rates are in place, and training opportunities are provided to aid the professional development of radiologists., (© The Author(s) 2015.)

Descriptive epidemiology on incidence and survival by lymphoid neoplasm (LN) subtypes using the 2008 World Health Organisation (WHO) classification remained limited in Asia. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether gender and ethnic differences in incidence and survival of LN subtypes existed using the Singapore Cancer Registry (SCR) from 1998 to 2012. We derived age standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) by the direct standardisation method and 5-year relative survival (RSR) by the Ederer II method and period approach. Five-year observed survival (OS) was obtained for each ethnicity. Malays had the highest ASIR of total LNs among the three ethnicities for each time period. The largest increase in 5-year RSR subtypes was follicular lymphoma from 43.8% in 1998-2002 to 82.3% in 2008-2012; followed by chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL)/small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL) from 48.1% in 1998-2002 to 77.9% in 2008-2012. Although males had higher incidence than females in each time period, females had greater 5-year RSR for follicular lymphoma (89.8% in 2008-2012 for females vs. 76.6% in 2008-2012 for males) and CLL/SLL (78.7% in 2008-2012 for females vs. 76.7% in 2008-2012 for males). All three ethnicities experienced an overall increase in 5-year OS for mature B-cell lymphoma, with Indians experiencing the greatest increase (37.1% in 1998-2002 to 61.1% in 2008-2012), followed by Malays (30.8% in 1998-2002 to 48.7% in 2008-2012) and then Chinese (36.4% in 1998-2002 to 51.3% in 2008-2012). Our study demonstrated that improved mature B-cell lymphoma survival was not only observed in the West, but also in Singapore., (© 2015 UICC.)

Objectives: A growing body of literature suggests that female hormones play a role in lung cancer risk. Our study aims to examine the relationship between reproductive factors and lung cancer incidence in a large prospectively enrolled cohort in Singapore., Materials and Methods: Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of lung cancer for each exposure, adjusting for smoking, age at entry, ethnicity and body mass index., Results: Among 28,222 women aged 50-64 years enrolled in the Singapore Breast Cancer Screening Project from October 1994 to February 1997, we identified 311 incident lung cancer cases (253 in non-smokers) over an average of 15.8 years of follow-up to 31 December 2011. Higher parity was associated with decreased lung cancer risk. Compared with nulliparous women, those with 1-2, 3-4, and ≥5 deliveries had a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.56, 0.55 and 0.45, respectively (P(trend)<0.01). This association was observed in both smokers and non-smokers, and in both adenocarcinomas and non-adenocarcinomas. Reproductive period, breastfeeding, oral contraceptive and hormone replacement therapy use did not seem to influence the risk of getting lung cancer., Conclusion: Our findings add to the existing evidence that parous women have a lower lung cancer risk than nulliparous women., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.)

We investigated the relationship of visual impairment (VI) and age-related eye diseases with mortality in a prospective, population-based cohort study of 3,280 Malay adults aged 40-80 years between 2004-2006. Participants underwent a full ophthalmic examination and standardized lens and fundus photographic grading. Visual acuity was measured using logMAR chart. VI was defined as presenting (PVA) and best-corrected (BCVA) visual acuity worse than 0.30 logMAR in the better-seeing eye. Participants were linked with mortality records until 2012. During follow-up (median 7.24 years), 398 (12.2%) persons died. In Cox proportional-hazards models adjusting for relevant factors, participants with VI (PVA) had higher all-cause mortality (hazard ratio[HR], 1.57; 95% confidence interval[CI], 1.25-1.96) and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality (HR 1.75; 95% CI, 1.24-2.49) than participants without. Diabetic retinopathy (DR) was associated with increased all-cause (HR 1.70; 95% CI, 1.25-2.36) and CVD mortality (HR 1.57; 95% CI, 1.05-2.43). Retinal vein occlusion (RVO) was associated with increased CVD mortality (HR 3.14; 95% CI, 1.26-7.73). No significant associations were observed between cataract, glaucoma and age-related macular degeneration with mortality. We conclude that persons with VI were more likely to die than persons without. DR and RVO are markers of CVD mortality.

Purpose: The aim of this study was to assess associations of breastfeeding, adiposity and reproductive risk factors with ovarian cancer risk in a Singaporean population. In addition to the main analysis, interaction effects of parity on other risk factors were examined., Methods: A retrospective cohort consisting of 28,201 women with 107 incident ovarian cancers in up to 17 years of follow-up from the Singapore Breast Cancer Screening Project (1994-1997) was studied. Hazard ratios (HRs) for risk factors were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models., Results: Body mass index and breastfeeding were found to have no statistical significant association with ovarian cancer risk. Gravidity was inversely associated with ovarian cancer risk [each pregnancy, adjusted HR 0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81, 0.97], while results for parity were very similar (per delivery, HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.81, 0.98). Each additional year of ovulatory period was found to increase ovarian cancer risk by 2% (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00, 1.04). Each year increase in total duration of oral contraceptive use reduced ovarian cancer risk by 6% (HR 0.94, 95% CI 0.85, 1.02)., Conclusions: Parity, gravidity and shorter ovulatory period were associated with lower ovarian cancer risk. Breastfeeding and body mass index were not associated with ovarian cancer risk, while increased duration of oral contraceptive use resulted in borderline risk reduction. No significant evidence was found to suggest that parity had an interaction effect on any risk factor.

Background: We investigated the association of living alone with mortality among older persons, independently of marital, health and other factors, and explored its effect modification by age group, sex, marital status and physical functional disability., Method: Using data from 8 years of mortality follow up (1 September 2003 to 31 December 2011) of 2553 participants in the Singapore Longitudinal Ageing Studies (SLAS) cohort, we estimated hazard ratio (HR) of mortality associated with living alone using Cox proportional hazard models., Results: At baseline, 7.4 % (N = 189) of the participants were living alone, and 227 (8.9 %) died during the follow up period. Living alone was significantly associated with mortality 1.66 (95 % CI, 1.05-2.63), controlling for health status (hypertension, diabetes, chronic lung disease, stroke, heart disease, kidney failure, IADL-ADL disability and depressive symptoms), marital status and other variables (age, sex, housing type). Possible substantive effect modification by sex (p for interaction = 0.106) and marital status (p for interaction <0.115) were observed: higher among men (HR = 2.36, 95 % CI, 1.24-4.49) than women (HR = 1.14, 95 % CI, 0.58-2.22), and among single, divorce or widowed (HR = 2.26, 95 % CI, 1.24-4.10) than married individuals (HR = 0.83, 95 % CI, 0.30-2.31)., Conclusion: Living alone was associated with increased mortality, independently of marital, health and other variables. The impact of living alone on mortality appeared to be stronger among men and those who were single, divorced or married.

Background and Purpose: This study investigated trends in stroke incidence and case fatality overall and according to sex, age, ethnicity, and stroke subtype in a multiethnic Asian population., Methods: The Singapore Stroke Registry identifies all stroke cases in all public hospitals using medical claims, hospital discharge summaries, and death registry data. Age-standardized incidence rates and 28-day case-fatality rates were calculated for individuals aged ≥15 years between 2006 and 2012. To estimate the annual percentage change of the rates, a linear regression model was fitted to the log rates, and a Wald test was performed to test for trend. P values <0.05 were considered significant., Results: A total of 40 623 cases were recorded. The total stroke incidence fell by ≈12.0%, and case fatality fell by 17.2% in the study. Declining trends in stroke incidence were stronger in women (female: -2.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], -3.43 to -2.44; male: -1.80; 95% CI, -2.58 to -1.02); in the older age groups (≥65 years: -3.62; 95% CI, -4.30 to -2.94; 50-64 years: -1.26; 95% CI, -1.97 to -0.55; <50 years: 3.33; 95% CI, 1.49 to 5.20), in Chinese (-2.64; 95% CI, -3.15 to -2.13), Indians (-3.78; 95% CI, -5.93 to -1.58), and others (-12.73; 95% CI, -18.93 to -6.06) compared with Malays (2.58; 95% CI, 1.17 to 4.02); and in ischemic stroke subtype (ischemic: -2.43; 95% CI, -3.13 to -1.73; hemorrhagic: -1.02; 95% CI, -2.04 to 0.01). Subgroup-specific findings for case fatality were similar., Conclusion: This is the first countrywide hospital-based registry study in a multiethnic Asian population, and it revealed marked overall reductions in stroke incidence and case fatality. However, it also identified important population groups with less favorable trends, especially younger adults and those of Malay ethnicity., (© 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.)

Background: Frailty is associated with adverse outcomes including disability, mortality and risk of falls. Trauma registries capture a broad range of injuries. However, frail patients who fall comprise a large proportion of the injuries occurring in ageing populations and are likely to have different outcomes compared to non-frail injured patients. The effect of frail fallers on mortality is under-explored but potentially significant. Currently, many trauma registries define low falls as less than three metres, a height that is likely to include non-frailty falls. We hypothesized that the low fall from less than 0.5 metres, including same-level falls, is a surrogate marker of frailty and predicts long-term mortality in older trauma patients., Methods: Using data from the Singapore National Trauma Registry, 2011-2013, matched till September 2014 to the death registry, we analysed adults aged over 45 admitted via the emergency department in public hospitals sustaining blunt injuries with an injury severity score (ISS) of 9 or more, excluding isolated hip fractures from same-level falls in the over 65. Patients injured by a low fall were compared to patients injured by high fall and other blunt mechanisms. Logistic regression was used to analyze 12-month mortality, controlling for mechanism of injury, ISS, revised trauma score (RTS), co-morbidities, gender, age and age-gender interaction. Different low fall height definitions, adjusting for injury regions, and analyzing the entire adult cohort were used in sensitivity analyses and did not change our findings., Results: Of the 8111 adults in our cohort, patients who suffered low falls were more likely to die of causes unrelated to their injuries (p<0.001), compared to other blunt trauma and higher fall heights. They were at higher risk of 12-month mortality (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.18-2.58, p = 0.005), independent of ISS, RTS, age, gender, age-gender interaction and co-morbidities. Falls that were higher than 0.5m did not show this pattern. Males were at higher risk of mortality after low falls. The effect of age on mortality started at age 55 for males, and age 70 for females, and the difference was attributable to the additional mortality in male low-fallers., Conclusions: The low fall mechanism can optimize prediction of long-term mortality after moderate and severe injury, and may be a surrogate marker of frailty, complementing broader-based studies on aging.

Background: Few studies have examined the impact of chronic kidney disease (CKD) on adverse cardiovascular outcomes and deaths in Asian populations. We evaluated the associations of CKD with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in a multi-ethnic Asian population., Design: Prospective cohort study of 7098 individuals who participated in two independent population-based studies involving Malay adults (n = 3148) and a multi-ethnic cohort of Chinese, Malay and Indian adults (n = 3950)., Methods: CKD was assessed from CKD-EPI estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR). Incident CVD (myocardial infarction, stroke and CVD mortality) and all-cause mortality were identified by linkage with national disease/death registries., Results: Over a median follow-up of 4.3 years, 4.6% developed CVD and 6.1% died. Risks of both CVD and all-cause mortality increased with decreasing eGFR and increasing albuminuria (all p-trend <0.05). Adjusted hazard ratios (HR (95% confidence interval)) of CVD and all-cause mortality were: 1.54 (1.05-2.27) and 2.21 (1.67-2.92) comparing eGFR <45 vs ≥60; 2.81 (1.49-5.29) and 2.34 (1.28-4.28) comparing UACR ≥300 vs <30. The association between eGFR <60 and all-cause mortality was stronger among those with diabetes (p-interaction = 0.02). PAR of incident CVD was greater among those with UACR ≥300 (12.9%) and that of all-cause mortality greater among those with eGFR <45 (16.5%)., Conclusions: In multi-ethnic Asian adults, lower eGFR and higher albuminuria were independently associated with incident CVD and all-cause mortality. These findings extend previously reported similar associations in Western populations to Asians and emphasize the need for early detection of CKD and intervention to prevent adverse outcomes., (© The European Society of Cardiology 2014.)