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The use of data collection to support decision making through the reduction of uncertainty is ubiquitous in the management, operation, and design of building energy systems. However, no existing studies in the building energy systems literature have quantified the economic benefits of data collection strategies to determine whether they are worth their cost. This work demonstrates that Value of Information analysis (VoI), a Bayesian Decision Analysis framework, provides a suitable methodology for quantifying the benefits of data collection. Three example decision problems in building energy systems are studied: air-source heat pump maintenance scheduling, ventilation scheduling for indoor air quality, and ground-source heat pump system design. Smart meters, occupancy monitoring systems, and ground thermal tests are shown to be economically beneficial for supporting these decisions respectively. It is proposed that further study of VoI in building energy systems would allow expenditure on data collection to be economised and prioritised, avoiding wastage., Comment: 28 pages, 10 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2305.16117

Data is required to develop forecasting models for use in Model Predictive Control (MPC) schemes in building energy systems. However, data is costly to both collect and exploit. Determining cost optimal data usage strategies requires understanding of the forecast accuracy and resulting MPC operational performance it enables. This study investigates the performance of both simple and state-of-the-art machine learning prediction models for MPC in multi-building energy systems using a simulated case study with historic building energy data. The impact on forecast accuracy of measures to improve model data efficiency are quantified, specifically for: reuse of prediction models, reduction of training data duration, reduction of model data features, and online model training. A simple linear multi-layer perceptron model is shown to provide equivalent forecast accuracy to state-of-the-art models, with greater data efficiency and generalisability. The use of more than 2 years of training data for load prediction models provided no significant improvement in forecast accuracy. Forecast accuracy and data efficiency were improved simultaneously by using change-point analysis to screen training data. Reused models and those trained with 3 months of data had on average 10% higher error than baseline, indicating that deploying MPC systems without prior data collection may be economic., Comment: 36 pages, 22 figures

This paper presents an approach based on higher order dynamic mode decomposition (HODMD) to model, analyse, and forecast energy behaviour in an urban agriculture farm situated in a retrofitted London underground tunnel, where observed measurements are influenced by noisy and occasionally transient conditions. HODMD is a data-driven reduced order modelling method typically used to analyse and predict highly noisy and complex flows in fluid dynamics or any type of complex data from dynamical systems. HODMD is a recent extension of the classical dynamic mode decomposition method (DMD), customised to handle scenarios where the spectral complexity underlying the measurement data is higher than its spatial complexity, such as is the environmental behaviour of the farm. HODMD decomposes temporal data as a linear expansion of physically-meaningful DMD-modes in a semi-automatic approach, using a time-delay embedded approach. We apply HODMD to three seasonal scenarios using real data measured by sensors located at at the cross-sectional centre of the the underground farm. Through the study we revealed three physically-interpretable mode pairs that govern the environmental behaviour at the centre of the farm, consistently across environmental scenarios. Subsequently, we demonstrate how we can reconstruct the fundamental structure of the observed time-series using only these modes, and forecast for three days ahead, as one, compact and interpretable reduced-order model. We find HODMD to serve as a robust, semi-automatic modelling alternative for predictive modelling in Digital Twins.

The use of monitored data to improve the accuracy of building energy models and operation of energy systems is ubiquitous, with topics such as building monitoring and Digital Twinning attracting substantial research attention. However, little attention has been paid to quantifying the value of the data collected against its cost. This paper argues that without a principled method for determining the value of data, its collection cannot be prioritised. It demonstrates the use of Value of Information analysis (VoI), which is a Bayesian Decision Analysis framework, to provide such a methodology for quantifying the value of data collection in the context of building energy modelling and analysis. Three energy decision-making examples are presented: ventilation scheduling, heat pump maintenance scheduling, and ground source heat pump design. These examples illustrate the use of VoI to support decision-making on data collection., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures

State-of-the-art machine-learning-based models are a popular choice for modeling and forecasting energy behavior in buildings because given enough data, they are good at finding spatiotemporal patterns and structures even in scenarios where the complexity prohibits analytical descriptions. However, their architecture typically does not hold physical correspondence to mechanistic structures linked with governing physical phenomena. As a result, their ability to successfully generalize for unobserved timesteps depends on the representativeness of the dynamics underlying the observed system in the data, which is difficult to guarantee in real-world engineering problems such as control and energy management in digital twins. In response, we present a framework that combines lumped-parameter models in the form of linear time-invariant (LTI) state-space models (SSMs) with unsupervised reduced-order modeling in a subspace-based domain adaptation (SDA) framework. SDA is a type of transfer-learning (TL) technique, typically adopted for exploiting labeled data from one domain to predict in a different but related target domain for which labeled data is limited. We introduce a novel SDA approach where instead of labeled data, we leverage the geometric structure of the LTI SSM governed by well-known heat transfer ordinary differential equations to forecast for unobserved timesteps beyond observed measurement data. Fundamentally, our approach geometrically aligns the physics-derived and data-derived embedded subspaces closer together. In this initial exploration, we evaluate the physics-based SDA framework on a demonstrative heat conduction scenario by varying the thermophysical properties of the source and target systems to demonstrate the transferability of mechanistic models from a physics-based domain to a data domain.

Assimilation of continuously streamed monitored data is an essential component of a digital twin; the assimilated data are used to ensure the digital twin is a true representation of the monitored system. One way this is achieved is by calibration of simulation models, whether data-derived or physics-based, or a combination of both. Traditional manual calibration is not possible in this context hence new methods are required for continuous calibration. In this paper, a particle filter methodology for continuous calibration of the physics-based model element of a digital twin is presented and applied to an example of an underground farm. The methodology is applied to a synthetic problem with known calibration parameter values prior to being used in conjunction with monitored data. The proposed methodology is compared against static and sequential Bayesian calibration approaches and compares favourably in terms of determination of the distribution of parameter values and analysis run-times, both essential requirements. The methodology is shown to be potentially useful as a means to ensure continuing model fidelity., Comment: 23 pages, 19 figures

Reliance on solid biomass cooking fuels in India has negative health and socio-economic consequences for households, yet policies aimed at promoting uptake of LPG for cooking have not always been effective at promoting sustained transition to cleaner cooking amongst intended beneficiaries. This paper uses a two step approach combining predictive and descriptive analyses of the IHDS panel dataset to identify different groups of households that switched stove between 2004/5 and 2011/12. A tree-based ensemble machine learning predictive analysis identifies key determinants of a switch from biomass to non-biomass stoves. A descriptive clustering analysis is used to identify groups of stove-switching households that follow different transition pathways. There are three key findings of this study: Firstly non-income determinants of stove switching do not have a linear effect on stove switching, in particular variables on time of use and appliance ownership which offer a proxy for household energy practices; secondly location specific factors including region, infrastructure availability, and dwelling quality are found to be key determinants and as a result policies must be tailored to take into account local variations; thirdly clean cooking interventions must enact a range of measures to address the barriers faced by households on different energy transition pathways., Comment: 42 pages, 7 figures