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ObjectivesUse of intrauterine balloon tamponades for refractory postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) management has triggered recent debate since effectiveness studies have yielded conflicting results. Implementation research is needed to identify factors influencing successful integration into maternal healthcare packages. The Ellavi uterine balloon tamponade (UBT) (Ellavi) is a new low-cost, preassembled device for treating refractory PPH.DesignA mixed-methods, prospective, implementation research study examining the adoption, sustainability, fidelity, acceptability and feasibility of introducing a newly registered UBT. Cross-sectional surveys were administered post-training and post-use over 10 months.SettingThree Ghanaian (district, regional) and three Kenyan (levels 4–6) healthcare facilities.ParticipantsObstetric staff (n=451) working within participating facilities.InterventionPPH management training courses were conducted with obstetric staff.Primary and secondary outcome measuresFacility measures of adoption, sustainability and fidelity and individual measures of acceptability and feasibility.ResultsAll participating hospitals adopted the device during the study period and the majority (52%–62%) of the employed obstetric staff were trained on the Ellavi; sustainability and fidelity to training content were moderate. The Ellavi was suited for this context due to high delivery and PPH burden. Dynamic training curriculums led by local UBT champions and clear instructions on the packaging yielded positive attitudes and perceptions, and high user confidence, resulting in overall high acceptability. Post-training and post-use, ≥79% of the trainees reported that the Ellavi was easy to use. Potential barriers to use included the lack of adjustable drip stands and difficulties calculating bag height according to blood pressure. Overall, the Ellavi can be feasibly integrated into PPH care and was preferred over condom catheters.ConclusionsThe training package and time saving Ellavi design facilitated its adoption, acceptability and feasibility. The Ellavi is appropriate and feasible for use among obstetric staff and can be successfully integrated into the Kenyan and Ghanaian maternal healthcare package.Trial registration numbersNCT04502173;NCT05340777.

BackgroundSoil Transmitted Helminths (STH) infect over 1.5 billion people globally and are associated with anemia and stunting, resulting in an annual toll of 1.9 million Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). School-based deworming (SBD), via mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns with albendazole or mebendazole, has been recommended by the World Health Organization to reduce levels of morbidity due to STH in endemic areas. DeWorm3 is a cluster-randomized trial, conducted in three study sites in Benin, India, and Malawi, designed to assess the feasibility of interrupting STH transmission with community-wide MDA as a potential strategy to replace SBD. This analysis examines data from the DeWorm3 trial to quantify discrepancies between school-level reporting of SBD and gold standard individual-level survey reporting of SBD.Methodology/Principal FindingsPopulation-weighted averages of school-level SBD calculated at the cluster level were compared to aggregated individual-level SBD estimates to produce a Mean Squared Error (MSE) estimate for each study site. In order to estimate individual-level SBD coverage, these MSE values were applied to SBD estimates from the control arm of the DeWorm3 trial, where only school-level reporting of SBD coverage had been collected.In each study site, SBD coverage in the school-level datasets was substantially higher than that obtained from individual-level datasets, indicating possible overestimation of school-level SBD coverage. When applying observed MSE to project expected coverages in the control arm, SBD coverage dropped from 89.1% to 70.5% (p-value < 0.001) in Benin, from 97.7% to 84.5% (p-value < 0.001) in India, and from 41.5% to 37.5% (p-value < 0.001) in Malawi.Conclusions/SignificanceThese estimates indicate that school-level SBD reporting is likely to significantly overestimate program coverage. These findings suggest that current SBD coverage estimates derived from school-based program data may substantially overestimate true pediatric deworming coverage within targeted communities.

ObjectivesCurrent guidelines for the control of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) recommend deworming children and other high-risk groups, primarily using school-based deworming (SBD) programmes. However, targeting individuals of all ages through community-wide mass drug administration (cMDA) may interrupt STH transmission in some settings. We compared the costs of cMDA to SBD to inform decision-making about future updates to STH policy.DesignWe conducted activity-based microcosting of cMDA and SBD for 2 years in Benin, India and Malawi within an ongoing cMDA trial.SettingField sites and collaborating research institutions.Primary and secondary outcomesWe calculated total financial and opportunity costs and costs per treatment administered (unit costs in 2019 USD ($)) from the service provider perspective, including costs related to community drug distributors and other volunteers.ResultsOn average, cMDA unit costs were more expensive than SBD in India ($1.17 vs $0.72) and Malawi ($2.26 vs $1.69), and comparable in Benin ($2.45 vs $2.47). cMDA was more expensive than SBD in part because most costs (~60%) were ‘supportive costs’ needed to deliver treatment with high coverage, such as additional supervision and electronic data capture. A smaller fraction of cMDA costs (~30%) was routine expenditures (eg, drug distributor allowances). The remaining cMDA costs (~10%) were opportunity costs of staff and volunteer time. A larger percentage of SBD costs was opportunity costs for teachers and other government staff (between ~25% and 75%). Unit costs varied over time and were sensitive to the number of treatments administered.ConclusionscMDA was generally more expensive than SBD. Accounting for local staff time (volunteers, teachers, health workers) in community programmes is important and drives higher cost estimates than commonly recognised in the literature. Costs may be lower outside of a trial setting, given a reduction in supportive costs used to drive higher treatment coverage and economies of scale.Trial registration numberNCT03014167.

ObjectiveTo present a costing study integrated within the DeWorm3 multi-country field trial of community-wide mass drug administration (cMDA) for elimination of soil-transmitted helminths.DesignTailored data collection instruments covering resource use, expenditure and operational details were developed for each site. These were populated alongside field activities by on-site staff. Data quality control and validation processes were established. Programmed routines were used to clean, standardise and analyse data to derive costs of cMDA and supportive activities.SettingField site and collaborating research institutions.Primary and secondary outcome measuresA strategy for costing interventions in parallel with field activities was discussed. Interim estimates of cMDA costs obtained with the strategy were presented for one of the trial sites.ResultsThe study demonstrated that it was both feasible and advantageous to collect data alongside field activities. Practical decisions on implementing the strategy and the trade-offs involved varied by site; trialists and local partners were key to tailoring data collection to the technical and operational realities in the field. The strategy capitalised on the established processes for routine financial reporting at sites, benefitted from high recall and gathered operational insight that facilitated interpretation of the estimates derived. The methodology produced granular costs that aligned with the literature and allowed exploration of relevant scenarios. In the first year of the trial, net of drugs, the incremental financial cost of extending deworming of school-aged children to the whole community in India site averaged US$1.14 (USD, 2018) per person per round. A hypothesised at-scale routine implementation scenario yielded a much lower estimate of US$0.11 per person treated per round.ConclusionsWe showed that costing interventions alongside field activities offers unique opportunities for collecting rich data to inform policy toward optimising health interventions and for facilitating transfer of economic evidence from the field to the programme.Trial registration numberNCT03014167; Pre-results.

Summary Background Health outcomes are known to vary at both the country and local levels, but trends in mortality across a detailed and comprehensive set of causes have not been previously described at a very local level. Life expectancy in King County, WA, USA, is in the 95th percentile among all counties in the USA. However, little is known about how life expectancy and mortality from different causes of death vary at a local, neighbourhood level within this county. In this analysis, we estimated life expectancy and cause-specific mortality within King County to describe spatial trends, quantify disparities in mortality, and assess the contribution of each cause of death to overall disparities in all-cause mortality. Methods We applied established so-called garbage code redistribution algorithms and small area estimation methods to death registration data for King County to estimate life expectancy, cause-specific mortality rates, and years of life lost (YLL) rates from 152 causes of death for 397 census tracts from Jan 1, 1990, to Dec 31, 2014. We used the cause list developed for the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study for this analysis. Deaths were tabulated by age group, sex, census tract, and cause of death. We used Bayesian mixed-effects regression models to estimate mortality overall and from each cause. Findings Between 1990 and 2014, life expectancy in King County increased by 5·4 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·0–5·7) among men (from 74·0 years [73·7–74·3] to 79·3 years [79·1–79·6]) and by 3·4 years (3·0–3·7) among women (from 80·0 years [79·7–80·2] to 83·3 years [83·1–83·5]). In 2014, life expectancy ranged from 68·4 years (95% UI 66·9–70·1) to 86·7 years (85·0–88·2) for men and from 73·6 years (71·6–75·5) to 88·4 years (86·9–89·9) for women among census tracts within King County. Rates of YLL by cause also varied substantially among census tracts for each cause of death. Geographical areas with relatively high and relatively low YLL rates differed by cause. In general, causes of death responsible for more YLLs overall also contributed more significantly to geographical inequality within King County. However, certain causes contributed more to inequality than to overall YLLs. Interpretation This census tract-level analysis of life expectancy and cause-specific YLL rates highlights important differences in health among neighbourhoods in King County that are masked by county-level estimates. Efforts to improve population health in King County should focus on reducing geographical inequality, by targeting those health conditions that contribute the most to overall YLLs and to inequality. This analysis should be replicated in other locations to more fully describe fine-grained local-level variation in population health and contribute to efforts to improve health while reducing inequalities. Funding John W Stanton and Theresa E Gillespie.

Importance Examining life expectancy by county allows for tracking geographic disparities over time and assessing factors related to these disparities. This information is potentially useful for policy makers, clinicians, and researchers seeking to reduce disparities and increase longevity. Objective To estimate annual life tables by county from 1980 to 2014; describe trends in geographic inequalities in life expectancy and age-specific risk of death; and assess the proportion of variation in life expectancy explained by variation in socioeconomic and race/ethnicity factors, behavioral and metabolic risk factors, and health care factors. Design, Setting, and Participants Annual county-level life tables were constructed using small area estimation methods from deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), and population counts from the US Census Bureau, NCHS, and the Human Mortality Database. Measures of geographic inequality in life expectancy and age-specific mortality risk were calculated. Principal component analysis and ordinary least squares regression were used to examine the county-level association between life expectancy and socioeconomic and race/ethnicity factors, behavioral and metabolic risk factors, and health care factors. Exposures County of residence. Main Outcomes and Measures Life expectancy at birth and age-specific mortality risk. Results Counties were combined as needed to create stable units of analysis over the period 1980 to 2014, reducing the number of areas analyzed from 3142 to 3110. In 2014, life expectancy at birth for both sexes combined was 79.1 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 79.0-79.1) years overall, but differed by 20.1 (95% UI, 19.1-21.3) years between the counties with the lowest and highest life expectancy. Absolute geographic inequality in life expectancy increased between 1980 and 2014. Over the same period, absolute geographic inequality in the risk of death decreased among children and adolescents, but increased among older adults. Socioeconomic and race/ethnicity factors, behavioral and metabolic risk factors, and health care factors explained 60%, 74%, and 27% of county-level variation in life expectancy, respectively. Combined, these factors explained 74% of this variation. Most of the association between socioeconomic and race/ethnicity factors and life expectancy was mediated through behavioral and metabolic risk factors. Conclusions and Relevance Geographic disparities in life expectancy among US counties are large and increasing. Much of the variation in life expectancy among counties can be explained by a combination of socioeconomic and race/ethnicity factors, behavioral and metabolic risk factors, and health care factors. Policy action targeting socioeconomic factors and behavioral and metabolic risk factors may help reverse the trend of increasing disparities in life expectancy in the United States.

Introduction Diabetes and chronic kidney diseases are associated with a large health burden in the USA and globally. Objective To estimate age-standardized mortality rates by county from diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease. Design and setting Validated small area estimation models were applied to de-identified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and population counts from the census bureau, NCHS, and the Human Mortality Database to estimate county-level mortality rates from 1980 to 2014 from diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Exposures County of residence. Main outcomes and measures Age-standardized mortality rates by county, year, sex, and cause. Results Between 1980 and 2014, 2,067,805 deaths due to diabetes were recorded in the USA. The mortality rate due to diabetes increased by 33.6% (95% UI: 26.5%–41.3%) between 1980 and 2000 and then declined by 26.4% (95% UI: 22.8%–30.0%) between 2000 and 2014. Counties with very high mortality rates were found along the southern half of the Mississippi river and in parts of South and North Dakota, while very low rates were observed in central Colorado, and select counties in the Midwest, California, and southern Florida. A total of 1,659,045 deaths due to CKD were recorded between 1980 and 2014 (477,332 due to diabetes mellitus, 1,056,150 due to hypertension, 122,795 due to glomerulonephritis, and 2,768 due to other causes). CKD mortality varied among counties with very low mortality rates observed in central Colorado as well as some counties in southern Florida, California, and Great Plains states. High mortality rates from CKD were observed in counties throughout much of the Deep South, and a cluster of counties with particularly high rates was observed around the Mississippi river. Conclusions and relevance This study found large inequalities in diabetes and CKD mortality among US counties. The findings provide insights into the root causes of this variation and call for improvements in risk factors, access to medical care, and quality of medical care.

Importance Substance use disorders, including alcohol use disorders and drug use disorders, and intentional injuries, including self-harm and interpersonal violence, are important causes of early death and disability in the United States. Objective To estimate age-standardized mortality rates by county from alcohol use disorders, drug use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence in the United States. Design and Setting Validated small-area estimation models were applied to deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and population counts from the US Census Bureau, NCHS, and the Human Mortality Database to estimate county-level mortality rates from 1980 to 2014 for alcohol use disorders, drug use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence. Exposures County of residence. Main Outcomes and Measures Age-standardized mortality rates by US county (N = 3110), year, sex, and cause. Results Between 1980 and 2014, there were 2 848 768 deaths due to substance use disorders and intentional injuries recorded in the United States. Mortality rates from alcohol use disorders (n = 256 432), drug use disorders (n = 542 501), self-harm (n = 1 289 086), and interpersonal violence (n = 760 749) varied widely among counties. Mortality rates decreased for alcohol use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence at the national level between 1980 and 2014; however, over the same period, the percentage of counties in which mortality rates increased for these causes was 65.4% for alcohol use disorders, 74.6% for self-harm, and 6.6% for interpersonal violence. Mortality rates from drug use disorders increased nationally and in every county between 1980 and 2014, but the relative increase varied from 8.2% to 8369.7%. Relative and absolute geographic inequalities in mortality, as measured by comparing the 90th and 10th percentile among counties, decreased for alcohol use disorders and interpersonal violence but increased substantially for drug use disorders and self-harm between 1980 and 2014. Conclusions and Relevance Mortality due to alcohol use disorders, drug use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence varied widely among US counties, both in terms of levels of mortality and trends. These estimates may be useful to inform efforts to target prevention, diagnosis, and treatment to improve health and reduce inequalities.

Summary Background During the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) era, many countries in Africa achieved marked reductions in under-5 and neonatal mortality. Yet the pace of progress toward these goals substantially varied at the national level, demonstrating an essential need for tracking even more local trends in child mortality. With the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, which established ambitious targets for improving child survival by 2030, optimal intervention planning and targeting will require understanding of trends and rates of progress at a higher spatial resolution. In this study, we aimed to generate high-resolution estimates of under-5 and neonatal all-cause mortality across 46 countries in Africa. Methods We assembled 235 geographically resolved household survey and census data sources on child deaths to produce estimates of under-5 and neonatal mortality at a resolution of 5 × 5 km grid cells across 46 African countries for 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. We used a Bayesian geostatistical analytical framework to generate these estimates, and implemented predictive validity tests. In addition to reporting 5 × 5 km estimates, we also aggregated results obtained from these estimates into three different levels—national, and subnational administrative levels 1 and 2—to provide the full range of geospatial resolution that local, national, and global decision makers might require. Findings Amid improving child survival in Africa, there was substantial heterogeneity in absolute levels of under-5 and neonatal mortality in 2015, as well as the annualised rates of decline achieved from 2000 to 2015. Subnational areas in countries such as Botswana, Rwanda, and Ethiopia recorded some of the largest decreases in child mortality rates since 2000, positioning them well to achieve SDG targets by 2030 or earlier. Yet these places were the exception for Africa, since many areas, particularly in central and western Africa, must reduce under-5 mortality rates by at least 8·8% per year, between 2015 and 2030, to achieve the SDG 3.2 target for under-5 mortality by 2030. Interpretation In the absence of unprecedented political commitment, financial support, and medical advances, the viability of SDG 3.2 achievement in Africa is precarious at best. By producing under-5 and neonatal mortality rates at multiple levels of geospatial resolution over time, this study provides key information for decision makers to target interventions at populations in the greatest need. In an era when precision public health increasingly has the potential to transform the design, implementation, and impact of health programmes, our 5 × 5 km estimates of child mortality in Africa provide a baseline against which local, national, and global stakeholders can map the pathways for ending preventable child deaths by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Importance In the United States, regional variation in cardiovascular mortality is well-known but county-level estimates for all major cardiovascular conditions have not been produced. Objective To estimate age-standardized mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases by county. Design and Setting Deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics and population counts from the US Census Bureau, the National Center for Health Statistics, and the Human Mortality Database from 1980 through 2014 were used. Validated small area estimation models were used to estimate county-level mortality rates from all cardiovascular diseases, including ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, hypertensive heart disease, cardiomyopathy, atrial fibrillation and flutter, rheumatic heart disease, aortic aneurysm, peripheral arterial disease, endocarditis, and all other cardiovascular diseases combined. Exposures The 3110 counties of residence. Main Outcomes and Measures Age-standardized cardiovascular disease mortality rates by county, year, sex, and cause. Results From 1980 to 2014, cardiovascular diseases were the leading cause of death in the United States, although the mortality rate declined from 507.4 deaths per 100 000 persons in 1980 to 252.7 deaths per 100 000 persons in 2014, a relative decline of 50.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 49.5%-50.8%). In 2014, cardiovascular diseases accounted for more than 846 000 deaths (95% UI, 827-865 thousand deaths) and 11.7 million years of life lost (95% UI, 11.6-11.9 million years of life lost). The gap in age-standardized cardiovascular disease mortality rates between counties at the 10th and 90th percentile declined 14.6% from 172.1 deaths per 100 000 persons in 1980 to 147.0 deaths per 100 000 persons in 2014 (posterior probability of decline >99.9%). In 2014, the ratio between counties at the 90th and 10th percentile was 2.0 for ischemic heart disease (119.1 vs 235.7 deaths per 100 000 persons) and 1.7 for cerebrovascular disease (40.3 vs 68.1 deaths per 100 000 persons). For other cardiovascular disease causes, the ratio ranged from 1.4 (aortic aneurysm: 3.5 vs 5.1 deaths per 100 000 persons) to 4.2 (hypertensive heart disease: 4.3 vs 17.9 deaths per 100 000 persons). The largest concentration of counties with high cardiovascular disease mortality extended from southeastern Oklahoma along the Mississippi River Valley to eastern Kentucky. Several cardiovascular disease conditions were clustered substantially outside the South, including atrial fibrillation (Northwest), aortic aneurysm (Midwest), and endocarditis (Mountain West and Alaska). The lowest cardiovascular mortality rates were found in the counties surrounding San Francisco, California, central Colorado, northern Nebraska, central Minnesota, northeastern Virginia, and southern Florida. Conclusions and Relevance Substantial differences exist between county ischemic heart disease and stroke mortality rates. Smaller differences exist for diseases of the myocardium, atrial fibrillation, aortic and peripheral arterial disease, rheumatic heart disease, and endocarditis.

Introduction Cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States and results in a high economic burden. Objective To estimate age-standardized mortality rates by US county from 29 cancers. Design and Setting Deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and population counts from the Census Bureau, the NCHS, and the Human Mortality Database from 1980 to 2014 were used. Validated small area estimation models were used to estimate county-level mortality rates from 29 cancers: lip and oral cavity; nasopharynx; other pharynx; esophageal; stomach; colon and rectum; liver; gallbladder and biliary; pancreatic; larynx; tracheal, bronchus, and lung; malignant skin melanoma; nonmelanoma skin cancer; breast; cervical; uterine; ovarian; prostate; testicular; kidney; bladder; brain and nervous system; thyroid; mesothelioma; Hodgkin lymphoma; non-Hodgkin lymphoma; multiple myeloma; leukemia; and all other cancers combined. Exposure County of residence. Main Outcomes and Measures Age-standardized cancer mortality rates by county, year, sex, and cancer type. Results A total of 19 511 910 cancer deaths were recorded in the United States between 1980 and 2014, including 5 656 423 due to tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer; 2 484 476 due to colon and rectum cancer; 1 573 593 due to breast cancer; 1 077 030 due to prostate cancer; 1 157 878 due to pancreatic cancer; 209 314 due to uterine cancer; 421 628 due to kidney cancer; 487 518 due to liver cancer; 13 927 due to testicular cancer; and 829 396 due to non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Cancer mortality decreased by 20.1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 18.2%-21.4%) between 1980 and 2014, from 240.2 (95% UI, 235.8-244.1) to 192.0 (95% UI, 188.6-197.7) deaths per 100 000 population. There were large differences in the mortality rate among counties throughout the period: in 1980, cancer mortality ranged from 130.6 (95% UI, 114.7-146.0) per 100 000 population in Summit County, Colorado, to 386.9 (95% UI, 330.5-450.7) in North Slope Borough, Alaska, and in 2014 from 70.7 (95% UI, 63.2-79.0) in Summit County, Colorado, to 503.1 (95% UI, 464.9-545.4) in Union County, Florida. For many cancers, there were distinct clusters of counties with especially high mortality. The location of these clusters varied by type of cancer and were spread in different regions of the United States. Clusters of breast cancer were present in the southern belt and along the Mississippi River, while liver cancer was high along the Texas-Mexico border, and clusters of kidney cancer were observed in North and South Dakota and counties in West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, Alaska, and Illinois. Conclusions and Relevance Cancer mortality declined overall in the United States between 1980 and 2014. Over this same period, there were important changes in trends, patterns, and differences in cancer mortality among US counties. These patterns may inform further research into improving prevention and treatment.

Ebola virus disease (EVD) has demonstrated the devastating impact that zoonotic diseases can have on human populations (1,2). The recent EVD outbreak exposed national and international weaknesses in existing systems of outbreak response (3). The ability for this relatively rare virus to quickly spread merits the need for better preparedness plans in at-risk countries. Because zoonotic diseases account for most emerging infectious diseases (4), effective interventions must focus on animal reservoir hosts in addition to human health-seeking behavior and health system effectiveness.

As the outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa is now contained, attention is turning from control to future outbreak prediction and prevention. Building on a previously published zoonotic niche map (Pigott et al., 2014), this study incorporates new human and animal occurrence data and expands upon the way in which potential bat EVD reservoir species are incorporated. This update demonstrates the potential for incorporating and updating data used to generate the predicted suitability map. A new data portal for sharing such maps is discussed. This output represents the most up-to-date estimate of the extent of EVD zoonotic risk in Africa. These maps can assist in strengthening surveillance and response capacity to contain viral haemorrhagic fevers.

Importance County-level patterns in mortality rates by cause have not been systematically described but are potentially useful for public health officials, clinicians, and researchers seeking to improve health and reduce geographic disparities. Objectives To demonstrate the use of a novel method for county-level estimation and to estimate annual mortality rates by US county for 21 mutually exclusive causes of death from 1980 through 2014. Design, Setting, and Participants Redistribution methods for garbage codes (implausible or insufficiently specific cause of death codes) and small area estimation methods (statistical methods for estimating rates in small subpopulations) were applied to death registration data from the National Vital Statistics System to estimate annual county-level mortality rates for 21 causes of death. These estimates were raked (scaled along multiple dimensions) to ensure consistency between causes and with existing national-level estimates. Geographic patterns in the age-standardized mortality rates in 2014 and in the change in the age-standardized mortality rates between 1980 and 2014 for the 10 highest-burden causes were determined. Exposure County of residence. Main Outcomes and Measures Cause-specific age-standardized mortality rates. Results A total of 80 412 524 deaths were recorded from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 2014, in the United States. Of these, 19.4 million deaths were assigned garbage codes. Mortality rates were analyzed for 3110 counties or groups of counties. Large between-county disparities were evident for every cause, with the gap in age-standardized mortality rates between counties in the 90th and 10th percentiles varying from 14.0 deaths per 100 000 population (cirrhosis and chronic liver diseases) to 147.0 deaths per 100 000 population (cardiovascular diseases). Geographic regions with elevated mortality rates differed among causes: for example, cardiovascular disease mortality tended to be highest along the southern half of the Mississippi River, while mortality rates from self-harm and interpersonal violence were elevated in southwestern counties, and mortality rates from chronic respiratory disease were highest in counties in eastern Kentucky and western West Virginia. Counties also varied widely in terms of the change in cause-specific mortality rates between 1980 and 2014. For most causes (eg, neoplasms, neurological disorders, and self-harm and interpersonal violence), both increases and decreases in county-level mortality rates were observed. Conclusions and Relevance In this analysis of US cause-specific county-level mortality rates from 1980 through 2014, there were large between-county differences for every cause of death, although geographic patterns varied substantially by cause of death. The approach to county-level analyses with small area models used in this study has the potential to provide novel insights into US disease-specific mortality time trends and their differences across geographic regions.

Importance Infectious diseases are mostly preventable but still pose a public health threat in the United States, where estimates of infectious diseases mortality are not available at the county level. Objective To estimate age-standardized mortality rates and trends by county from 1980 to 2014 from lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, HIV/AIDS, meningitis, hepatitis, and tuberculosis. Design and Setting This study used deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and population counts from the US Census Bureau, NCHS, and the Human Mortality Database. Validated small-area estimation models were applied to these data to estimate county-level infectious disease mortality rates. Exposures County of residence. Main Outcomes and Measures Age-standardized mortality rates of lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, HIV/AIDS, meningitis, hepatitis, and tuberculosis by county, year, and sex. Results Between 1980 and 2014, there were 4 081 546 deaths due to infectious diseases recorded in the United States. In 2014, a total of 113 650 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 108 764-117 942) deaths or a rate of 34.10 (95% UI, 32.63-35.38) deaths per 100 000 persons were due to infectious diseases in the United States compared to a total of 72 220 (95% UI, 69 887-74 712) deaths or a rate of 41.95 (95% UI, 40.52-43.42) deaths per 100 000 persons in 1980, an overall decrease of 18.73% (95% UI, 14.95%-23.33%). Lower respiratory infections were the leading cause of infectious diseases mortality in 2014 accounting for 26.87 (95% UI, 25.79-28.05) deaths per 100 000 persons (78.80% of total infectious diseases deaths). There were substantial differences among counties in death rates from all infectious diseases. Lower respiratory infection had the largest absolute mortality inequality among counties (difference between the 10th and 90th percentile of the distribution, 24.5 deaths per 100 000 persons). However, HIV/AIDS had the highest relative mortality inequality between counties (10.0 as the ratio of mortality rate in the 90th and 10th percentile of the distribution). Mortality from meningitis and tuberculosis decreased over the study period in all US counties. However, diarrheal diseases were the only cause of infectious diseases mortality to increase from 2000 to 2014, reaching a rate of 2.41 (95% UI, 0.86-2.67) deaths per 100 000 persons, with many counties of high mortality extending from Missouri to the northeastern region of the United States. Conclusions and Relevance Between 1980 and 2014, there were declines in mortality from most categories of infectious diseases, with large differences among US counties. However, over this time there was an increase in mortality for diarrheal diseases.

Importance Chronic respiratory diseases are an important cause of death and disability in the United States. Objective To estimate age-standardized mortality rates by county from chronic respiratory diseases. Design, Setting, and Participants Validated small area estimation models were applied to deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics and population counts from the US Census Bureau, National Center for Health Statistics, and Human Mortality Database to estimate county-level mortality rates from 1980 to 2014 for chronic respiratory diseases. Exposure County of residence. Main Outcomes and Measures Age-standardized mortality rates by county, year, sex, and cause. Results A total of 4 616 711 deaths due to chronic respiratory diseases were recorded in the United States from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 2014. Nationally, the mortality rate from chronic respiratory diseases increased from 40.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 39.8-41.8) deaths per 100 000 population in 1980 to a peak of 55.4 (95% UI, 54.1-56.5) deaths per 100 000 population in 2002 and then declined to 52.9 (95% UI, 51.6-54.4) deaths per 100 000 population in 2014. This overall 29.7% (95% UI, 25.5%-33.8%) increase in chronic respiratory disease mortality from 1980 to 2014 reflected increases in the mortality rate from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (by 30.8% [95% UI, 25.2%-39.0%], from 34.5 [95% UI, 33.0-35.5] to 45.1 [95% UI, 43.7-46.9] deaths per 100 000 population), interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis (by 100.5% [95% UI, 5.8%-155.2%], from 2.7 [95% UI, 2.3-4.2] to 5.5 [95% UI, 3.5-6.1] deaths per 100 000 population), and all other chronic respiratory diseases (by 42.3% [95% UI, 32.4%-63.8%], from 0.51 [95% UI, 0.48-0.54] to 0.73 [95% UI, 0.69-0.78] deaths per 100 000 population). There were substantial differences in mortality rates and changes in mortality rates over time among counties, and geographic patterns differed by cause. Counties with the highest mortality rates were found primarily in central Appalachia for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and pneumoconiosis; widely dispersed throughout the Southwest, northern Great Plains, New England, and South Atlantic for interstitial lung disease; along the southern half of the Mississippi River and in Georgia and South Carolina for asthma; and in southern states from Mississippi to South Carolina for other chronic respiratory diseases. Conclusions and Relevance Despite recent declines in mortality from chronic respiratory diseases, mortality rates in 2014 remained significantly higher than in 1980. Between 1980 and 2014, there were important differences in mortality rates and changes in mortality by county, sex, and particular chronic respiratory disease type. These estimates may be helpful for informing efforts to improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.