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Abstract Background Many sub-Saharan countries are confronted with persistently high levels of infant mortality because of the impact of a range of biological and social determinants. In particular, infant mortality has increased in sub-Saharan Africa in recent decades due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The geographic distribution of health problems and their relationship to potential risk factors can be invaluable for cost effective intervention planning. The objective of this paper is to determine and map the spatial nature of infant mortality in South Africa at a sub district level in order to inform policy intervention. In particular, the paper identifies and maps high risk clusters of infant mortality, as well as examines the impact of a range of determinants on infant mortality. A Bayesian approach is used to quantify the spatial risk of infant mortality, as well as significant associations (given spatial correlation between neighbouring areas) between infant mortality and a range of determinants. The most attributable determinants in each sub-district are calculated based on a combination of prevalence and model risk factor coefficient estimates. This integrated small area approach can be adapted and applied in other high burden settings to assist intervention planning and targeting. Results Infant mortality remains high in South Africa with seemingly little reduction since previous estimates in the early 2000's. Results showed marked geographical differences in infant mortality risk between provinces as well as within provinces as well as significantly higher risk in specific sub-districts and provinces. A number of determinants were found to have a significant adverse influence on infant mortality at the sub-district level. Following multivariable adjustment increasing maternal mortality, antenatal HIV prevalence, previous sibling mortality and male infant gender remained significantly associated with increased infant mortality risk. Of these antenatal HIV sero-prevalence, previous sibling mortality and maternal mortality were found to be the most attributable respectively. Conclusions This study demonstrates the usefulness of advanced spatial analysis to both quantify excess infant mortality risk at the lowest administrative unit, as well as the use of Bayesian modelling to quantify determinant significance given spatial correlation. The "novel" integration of determinant prevalence at the sub-district and coefficient estimates to estimate attributable fractions further elucidates the "high impact" factors in particular areas and has considerable potential to be applied in other locations. The usefulness of the paper, therefore, not only suggests where to intervene geographically, but also what specific interventions policy makers should prioritize in order to reduce the infant mortality burden in specific administration areas.

Abstract Background The successful suppression of a target insect population using the sterile insect technique (SIT) partly depends on the premise that the laboratory insects used for mass rearing are genetically compatible with the target population, that the mating competitiveness of laboratory reared males is at least comparable to that of their wild counterparts, and that mass rearing and sterilization processes do not in themselves compromise male fitness to a degree that precludes them from successfully competing for mates in the wild. This study investigated the fitness and sexual cross-compatibility between samples of field collected and laboratory reared An. arabiensis under laboratory conditions. Results The physiological and reproductive fitness of the MALPAN laboratory strain is not substantially modified with respect to the field population at Malahlapanga. Further, a high degree of mating compatibility between MALPAN and the Malahlapanga population was established based on cross-mating experiments. Lastly, the morphological characteristics of hybrid ovarian polytene chromosomes further support the contention that the MALPAN laboratory colony and the An. arabiensis population at Malahlapanga are genetically homogenous and therefore compatible. Conclusions It is concluded that the presence of a perennial and isolated population of An. arabiensis at Malahlapanga presents a unique opportunity for assessing the feasibility of SIT as a malaria vector control option. The MALPAN laboratory colony has retained sufficient enough measures of reproductive and physiological fitness to present as a suitable candidate for male sterilization, mass rearing and subsequent mass release of sterile males at Malahlapanga in order to further assess the feasibility of SIT in a field setting.

Abstract Background Audit of disease and mortality patterns provides essential information for health budgeting and planning, as well as a benchmark for comparison. Neonatal mortality accounts for about 1/3 of deaths < 5 years of age and very low birth weight (VLBW) mortality for approximately 1/3 of neonatal mortality. Intervention programs must be based on reliable statistics applicable to the local setting; First World data cannot be used in a Third World setting. Many neonatal units participate in the Vermont Oxford Network (VON); limited resources prevent a significant number of large neonatal units from developing countries taking part, hence data from such units is lacking. The purpose of this study was to provide reliable, recent statistics relevant to a developing African country, useful for guiding neonatal interventions in that setting. Methods This was a retrospective chart review of 474 VLBW infants admitted within 24 hours of birth, between 1 July 2006 and 30 June 2007, to the neonatal unit of Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital (CMJAH) in Johannesburg, South Africa. Binary outcome logistic regression on individual variables and multiple logistic regression was done to identify those factors determining survival. Results Overall survival was 70.5%. Survival of infants below 1001 grams birth weight was 34.9% compared to 85.8% for those between 1001 and 1500 grams at birth. The main determinant of survival was birth weight with an adjusted survival odds ratio of 23.44 (95% CI: 11.22 - 49.00) for babies weighing between 1001 and 1500 grams compared to those weighing below 1001 grams. Other predictors of survival were gender (OR 3. 21; 95% CI 1.6 - 6.3), birth before arrival at the hospital (BBA) (OR 0.23; 95% CI: 0.08 - 0.69), necrotising enterocolitis (NEC) (OR 0.06; 95% CI: 0.02 - 0.20), hypotension (OR 0.05; 95% CI 0.01 - 0.21) and nasal continuous positive airways pressure (NCPAP) (OR 4.58; 95% CI 1.58 - 13.31). Conclusions Survival rates compare favourably with other developing countries, but can be improved; especially in infants < 1001 grams birth weight. Resources need to be allocated to preventing the birth of VLBW babies outside hospital, early neonatal resuscitation, provision of NCPAP and prevention of NEC.

Abstract Background Malaria is a major public health problem in Malawi, however, quantifying its burden in a population is a challenge. Routine hospital data provide a proxy for measuring the incidence of severe malaria and for crudely estimating morbidity rates. Using such data, this paper proposes a method to describe trends, patterns and factors associated with in-hospital mortality attributed to the disease. Methods We develop semiparametric regression models which allow joint analysis of nonlinear effects of calendar time and continuous covariates, spatially structured variation, unstructured heterogeneity, and other fixed covariates. Modelling and inference use the fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques. The methodology is applied to analyse data arising from paediatric wards in Zomba district, Malawi, between 2002 and 2003. Results and Conclusion We observe that the risk of dying in hospital is lower in the dry season, and for children who travel a distance of less than 5 kms to the hospital, but increases for those who are referred to the hospital. The results also indicate significant differences in both structured and unstructured spatial effects, and the health facility effects reveal considerable differences by type of facility or practice. More importantly, our approach shows non-linearities in the effect of metrical covariates on the probability of dying in hospital. The study emphasizes that the methodological framework used provides a useful tool for analysing the data at hand and of similar structure.

Background: Audit of disease and mortality patterns provides essential information for health budgeting and planning, as well as a benchmark for comparison. Neonatal mortality accounts for about 1/3 of deaths < 5 years of age and very low birth weight (VLBW) mortality for approximately 1/3 of neonatal mortality. Intervention programs must be based on reliable statistics applicable to the local setting; First World data cannot be used in a Third World setting. Many neonatal units participate in the Vermont Oxford Network (VON); limited resources prevent a significant number of large neonatal units from developing countries taking part, hence data from such units is lacking. The purpose of this study was to provide reliable, recent statistics relevant to a developing African country, useful for guiding neonatal interventions in that setting. Methods: This was a retrospective chart review of 474 VLBW infants admitted within 24 hours of birth, between 1 July 2006 and 30 June 2007, to the neonatal unit of Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital (CMJAH) in Johannesburg, South Africa. Binary outcome logistic regression on individual variables and multiple logistic regression was done to identify those factors determining survival. Results: Overall survival was 70.5%. Survival of infants below 1001 grams birth weight was 34.9% compared to 85.8% for those between 1001 and 1500 grams at birth. The main determinant of survival was birth weight with an adjusted survival odds ratio of 23.44 (95% CI: 11.22 - 49.00) for babies weighing between 1001 and 1500 grams compared to those weighing below 1001 grams. Other predictors of survival were gender (OR 3. 21; 95% CI 1.6 - 6.3), birth before arrival at the hospital (BBA) (OR 0.23; 95% CI: 0.08 - 0.69), necrotising enterocolitis (NEC) (OR 0.06; 95% CI: 0.02 - 0.20), hypotension (OR 0.05; 95% CI 0.01 - 0.21) and nasal continuous positive airways pressure (NCPAP) (OR 4.58; 95% CI 1.58 - 13.31). Conclusions: Survival rates compare favourably with other developing countries, but can be improved; especially in infants < 1001 grams birth weight. Resources need to be allocated to preventing the birth of VLBW babies outside hospital, early neonatal resuscitation, provision of NCPAP and prevention of NEC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]