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1. Spatiotemporal analysis of the first wave of COVID-19 hospitalisations in Birmingham, UK

Author

Watson, S.I., DIggle, P.J., Chipeta, M.G., Lilford, R.J., Watson, S.I., DIggle, P.J., Chipeta, M.G., and Lilford, R.J.

Abstract

Objectives To evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of the incidence of COVID-19 hospitalisations in Birmingham, UK during the first wave of the pandemic to support the design of public health disease control policies. Design A geospatial statistical model was estimated as part of a real-time disease surveillance system to predict local daily incidence of COVID-19. Participants All hospitalisations for COVID-19 to University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust between 1 February 2020 and 30 September 2020. Outcome measures Predictions of the incidence and cumulative incidence of COVID-19 hospitalisations in local areas, its weekly change and identification of predictive covariates. Results Peak hospitalisations occurred in the first and second weeks of April 2020 with significant variation in incidence and incidence rate ratios across the city. Population age, ethnicity and socioeconomic deprivation were strong predictors of local incidence. Hospitalisations demonstrated strong day of the week effects with fewer hospitalisations (10%–20% less) at the weekend. There was low temporal correlation in unexplained variance. By day 50 at the end of the first lockdown period, the top 2.5% of small areas had experienced five times as many cases per 10 000 population as the bottom 2.5%. Conclusions Local demographic factors were strong predictors of relative levels of incidence and can be used to target local areas for disease control measures. The real-time disease surveillance system provides a useful complement to other surveillance approaches by producing real-time, quantitative and probabilistic summaries of key outcomes at fine spatial resolution to inform disease control programmes.

Published
2021

2. The effect of community-driven larval source management and house improvement on malaria transmission when added to the standard malaria control strategies in Malawi:a cluster-randomized controlled trial

Author

McCann, R.S., Kabaghe, A.N., Moraga, P., Gowelo, S., Mburu, M.M., Tizifa, T., Chipeta, M.G., Nkhono, W., Di Pasquale, A., Maire, N., Manda-Taylor, L., Mzilahowa, T., van den Berg, H., Diggle, P.J., Terlouw, D.J., Takken, W., van Vugt, M., Phiri, K.S., McCann, R.S., Kabaghe, A.N., Moraga, P., Gowelo, S., Mburu, M.M., Tizifa, T., Chipeta, M.G., Nkhono, W., Di Pasquale, A., Maire, N., Manda-Taylor, L., Mzilahowa, T., van den Berg, H., Diggle, P.J., Terlouw, D.J., Takken, W., van Vugt, M., and Phiri, K.S.

Abstract

Background: Current standard interventions are not universally sufficient for malaria elimination. The effects of community-based house improvement (HI) and larval source management (LSM) as supplementary interventions to the Malawi National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) interventions were assessed in the context of an intensive community engagement programme. Methods: The study was a two-by-two factorial, cluster-randomized controlled trial in Malawi. Village clusters were randomly assigned to four arms: a control arm; HI; LSM; and HI + LSM. Malawi NMCP interventions and community engagement were used in all arms. Household-level, cross-sectional surveys were conducted on a rolling, 2-monthly basis to measure parasitological and entomological outcomes over 3 years, beginning with one baseline year. The primary outcome was the entomological inoculation rate (EIR). Secondary outcomes included mosquito density, Plasmodium falciparum prevalence, and haemoglobin levels. All outcomes were assessed based on intention to treat, and comparisons between trial arms were conducted at both cluster and household level. Results: Eighteen clusters derived from 53 villages with 4558 households and 20,013 people were randomly assigned to the four trial arms. The mean nightly EIR fell from 0.010 infectious bites per person (95% CI 0.006–0.015) in the baseline year to 0.001 (0.000, 0.003) in the last year of the trial. Over the full trial period, the EIR did not differ between the four trial arms (p = 0.33). Similar results were observed for the other outcomes: mosquito density and P. falciparum prevalence decreased over 3 years of sampling, while haemoglobin levels increased; and there were minimal differences between the trial arms during the trial period. Conclusions: In the context of high insecticide-treated bed net use, neither community-based HI, LSM, nor HI + LSM contributed to further reductions in malaria transmission or prevalence beyond the reductions observed over two

Published
2021

3. Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries.

Author

Faro A., Renzaho A.M.N., Rios-Gonzalez C., Roever L., Ross J.M., Rostami A., Sadat N., Safari Y., Safdarian M., Sahebkar A., Salam N., Salamati P., Salimi Y., Salimzadeh H., Samy A.M., Sartorius B., Sathian B., Schipp M.F., Schwebel D.C., Senbeta A.M., Sepanlou S.G., Shaikh M.A., Levy T.S., Shamsi M., Sharafi K., Sharma R., Sheikh A., Shil A., Silva D.A.S., Singh J.A., Sinha D.N., Soofi M., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadesse B.T., Temsah M.-H., Terkawi A.S., Tessema Z.T., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Tovani-Palone M.R., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Ullah I., Uthman O.A., Vaezghasemi M., Vaezi A., Valdez P.R., Vanderheide J., Veisani Y., Violante F.S., Vlassov V., Vu G.T., Vu L.G., Waheed Y., Walson J.L., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wangia E.N., Werdecker A., Xu G., Yamada T., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zhang Y., Kassebaum N.J., Hay S.I., Hamidi S., Kinyoki D.K., Osgood-Zimmerman A.E., Pickering B.V., Schaeffer L.E., Marczak L.B., Lazzar-Atwood A., Collison M.L., Henry N.J., Abebe Z., Adamu A.A., Adekanmbi V., Ahmadi K., Ajumobi O., Al-Eyadhy A., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alahdab F., Alijanzadeh M., Alipour V., Altirkawi K., Amini S., Andrei C.L., Antonio C.A.T., Arabloo J., Aremu O., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Atique S., Ausloos M., Avila M., Awasthi A., Quintanilla B.P.A., Azari S., Badawi A., Barnighausen T.W., Bassat Q., Baye K., Bedi N., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bhattacharjee N.V., Bhattacharyya K., Bhattarai S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bikbov B., Briko A.N., Britton G., Burstein R., Butt Z.A., Car J., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castro F., Cerin E., Chipeta M.G., Chu D.-T., Cork M.A., Cromwell E.A., Cuevas-Nasu L., Dandona L., Dandona R., Daoud F., Gupta R.D., Weaver N.D., Leo D.D., Neve J.-W.D., Deribe K., Desalegn B.B., Deshpande A., Desta M., Diaz D., Dinberu M.T., Doku D.T., Dubey M., Duraes A.R., Dwyer-Lindgren L., Earl L., Effiong A., Zaki M.E.S., Tantawi M.E., El-Khatib Z., Eshrati B., Fareed M., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Filip I., Fischer F., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Fukumoto T., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gezae K.E., Ghajar A., Gill P.S., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Grada A., Guo Y., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hall J.B., Henok A., Prado B.H., Herrero M., Herteliu C., Hoang C.L., Hole M.K., Hossain N., Hosseinzadeh M., Hu G., Islam S.M.S., Jakovljevic M., Jha R.P., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Kahsay A., Kanchan T., Karami M., Kasaeian A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khater M.M., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kisa A., Kochhar S., Kosen S., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Defo B.K., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Lad S.D., Lami F.H., Lee P.H., Levine A.J., Li S., Linn S., Lodha R., El Razek H.M.A., Abd El Razek M.M., Majdan M., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Mansournia M.A., Martins-Melo F.R., Masaka A., Massenburg B.B., Mayala B.K., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Melku M., Mendoza W., Mensah G.A., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G.K., Mirrakhimov E.M., Moazen B., Darwesh A.M., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Mokdad A.H., Moodley Y., Moradi G., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morrison S.D., Mosser J.F., Mousavi S.M., Mueller U.O., Murray C.J.L., Mustafa G., Naderi M., Naghavi M., Najafi F., Nangia V., Ndwandwe D.E., Negoi I., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen S.H., Nie J., Nnaji C.A., Noubiap J.J., Shiadeh M.N., Nyasulu P.S., Ogbo F.A., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ortiz-Panozo E., Otstavnov S.S., P. A M., Pana A., Pandey A., Pati S., Patil S.T., Patton G.C., Perico N., Pigott D.M., Pirsaheb M., Piwoz E.G., Postma M.J., Pourshams A., Prakash S., Quintana H., Radfar A., Rafiei A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rai R.K., Rajati F., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Rawat R., Remuzzi G., Faro A., Renzaho A.M.N., Rios-Gonzalez C., Roever L., Ross J.M., Rostami A., Sadat N., Safari Y., Safdarian M., Sahebkar A., Salam N., Salamati P., Salimi Y., Salimzadeh H., Samy A.M., Sartorius B., Sathian B., Schipp M.F., Schwebel D.C., Senbeta A.M., Sepanlou S.G., Shaikh M.A., Levy T.S., Shamsi M., Sharafi K., Sharma R., Sheikh A., Shil A., Silva D.A.S., Singh J.A., Sinha D.N., Soofi M., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadesse B.T., Temsah M.-H., Terkawi A.S., Tessema Z.T., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Tovani-Palone M.R., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Ullah I., Uthman O.A., Vaezghasemi M., Vaezi A., Valdez P.R., Vanderheide J., Veisani Y., Violante F.S., Vlassov V., Vu G.T., Vu L.G., Waheed Y., Walson J.L., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wangia E.N., Werdecker A., Xu G., Yamada T., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zhang Y., Kassebaum N.J., Hay S.I., Hamidi S., Kinyoki D.K., Osgood-Zimmerman A.E., Pickering B.V., Schaeffer L.E., Marczak L.B., Lazzar-Atwood A., Collison M.L., Henry N.J., Abebe Z., Adamu A.A., Adekanmbi V., Ahmadi K., Ajumobi O., Al-Eyadhy A., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alahdab F., Alijanzadeh M., Alipour V., Altirkawi K., Amini S., Andrei C.L., Antonio C.A.T., Arabloo J., Aremu O., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Atique S., Ausloos M., Avila M., Awasthi A., Quintanilla B.P.A., Azari S., Badawi A., Barnighausen T.W., Bassat Q., Baye K., Bedi N., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bhattacharjee N.V., Bhattacharyya K., Bhattarai S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bikbov B., Briko A.N., Britton G., Burstein R., Butt Z.A., Car J., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castro F., Cerin E., Chipeta M.G., Chu D.-T., Cork M.A., Cromwell E.A., Cuevas-Nasu L., Dandona L., Dandona R., Daoud F., Gupta R.D., Weaver N.D., Leo D.D., Neve J.-W.D., Deribe K., Desalegn B.B., Deshpande A., Desta M., Diaz D., Dinberu M.T., Doku D.T., Dubey M., Duraes A.R., Dwyer-Lindgren L., Earl L., Effiong A., Zaki M.E.S., Tantawi M.E., El-Khatib Z., Eshrati B., Fareed M., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Filip I., Fischer F., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Fukumoto T., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gezae K.E., Ghajar A., Gill P.S., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Grada A., Guo Y., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hall J.B., Henok A., Prado B.H., Herrero M., Herteliu C., Hoang C.L., Hole M.K., Hossain N., Hosseinzadeh M., Hu G., Islam S.M.S., Jakovljevic M., Jha R.P., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Kahsay A., Kanchan T., Karami M., Kasaeian A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khater M.M., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kisa A., Kochhar S., Kosen S., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Defo B.K., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Lad S.D., Lami F.H., Lee P.H., Levine A.J., Li S., Linn S., Lodha R., El Razek H.M.A., Abd El Razek M.M., Majdan M., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Mansournia M.A., Martins-Melo F.R., Masaka A., Massenburg B.B., Mayala B.K., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Melku M., Mendoza W., Mensah G.A., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G.K., Mirrakhimov E.M., Moazen B., Darwesh A.M., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Mokdad A.H., Moodley Y., Moradi G., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morrison S.D., Mosser J.F., Mousavi S.M., Mueller U.O., Murray C.J.L., Mustafa G., Naderi M., Naghavi M., Najafi F., Nangia V., Ndwandwe D.E., Negoi I., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen S.H., Nie J., Nnaji C.A., Noubiap J.J., Shiadeh M.N., Nyasulu P.S., Ogbo F.A., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ortiz-Panozo E., Otstavnov S.S., P. A M., Pana A., Pandey A., Pati S., Patil S.T., Patton G.C., Perico N., Pigott D.M., Pirsaheb M., Piwoz E.G., Postma M.J., Pourshams A., Prakash S., Quintana H., Radfar A., Rafiei A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rai R.K., Rajati F., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Rawat R., and Remuzzi G.

Abstract

Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0-59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3-5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization's median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas e

Published
2020

4. Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries

Author

Kinyoki, D.K. (Damaris K.), Osgood-Zimmerman, A.E. (Aaron E.), Pickering, B.V. (Brandon V.), Schaeffer, L.E. (Lauren E.), Marczak, L.B. (Laurie B.), Lazzar-Atwood, A. (Alice), Collison, M.L. (Michael L.), Henry, N.J. (Nathaniel J.), Abebe, Z. (Zegeye), Adamu, A.A. (Abdu A.), Adekanmbi, V. (Victor), Ahmadi, K. (Keivan), Ajumobi, O. (Olufemi), Al-Eyadhy, A. (Ayman), Al-Raddadi, R.M. (Rajaa M.), Alahdab, F. (Fares), Alijanzadeh, M. (Mehran), Alipour, V. (Vahid), Altirkawi, K. (Khalid), Amini, S. (Saeed), Andrei, C.L. (Catalina Liliana), Antonio, C.A.T. (Carl Abelardo T), Arabloo, J. (Jalal), Aremu, O. (Olatunde), Asadi-Aliabadi, M. (Mehran), Atique, S. (Suleman), Ausloos, M. (Marcel), Avila, M. (Marco), Awasthi, A. (Ashish), Quintanilla, B.P.A. (Beatriz Paulina Ayala), Azari, S. (Samad), Badawi, A. (Alaa), Bärnighausen, T. (Till), Bassat, Q. (Quique), Baye, K. (Kaleab), Bedi, N. (Neeraj), Bekele, B.B. (Bayu Begashaw), Bell, M.L. (Michelle L.), Bhattacharjee, N.V. (Natalia V.), Bhattacharyya, K. (Krittika), Bhattarai, S. (Suraj), Bhutta, Z.A. (Zulfiqar A), Biadgo, B. (Belete), Bikbov, B. (Boris), Briko, A.N. (Andrey Nikolaevich), Britton, G. (Gabrielle), Burstein, D. (David), Butt, Z.A. (Zahid A.), Car, J. (Josip), Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. (Carlos A), Castro, F. (Franz), Cerin, E. (Ester), Chipeta, M.G. (Michael G.), Chu, D.-T. (Dinh-Toi), Cork, M.A. (Michael A.), Cromwell, E.A. (Elizabeth A.), Cuevas-Nasu, L. (Lucía), Dandona, L. (Lalit), Dandona, R. (Rakhi), Daoud, F. (Farah), Gupta, R.D. (Rajat Das), Weaver, N.D. (Nicole Davis), Leo, D.D. (Diego De), Neve, J.-W.D. (Jan-Walter De), Deribe, K. (Kebede), Desalegn, B.B. (Beruk Berhanu), Deshpande, A. (Aniruddha), Desta, M. (Melaku), Diaz, D. (Daniel), Dinberu, M.T. (Mesfin Tadese), Doku, D.T. (David Teye), Dubey, M. (Manisha), Durães, A.R. (Andre R.), Dwyer-Lindgren, L.A. (Laura), Earl, L. (Lucas), Effiong, A. (Andem), Zaki, M.E.S. (Maysaa El Sayed), Tantawi, M.E. (Maha El), El-Khatib, Z. (Ziad), Eshrati, B. (Babak), Fareed, M. (Mohammad), Faro, A. (Andre), Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. (Seyed-Mohammad), Filip, I. (Irina), Fischer, F. (Florian), Foigt, N.A. (Nataliya A.), Folayan, M.O. (Morenike Oluwatoyin), Fukumoto, T. (Takeshi), Gebrehiwot, T.T. (Tsegaye Tewelde), Gezae, K.E. (Kebede Embaye), Ghajar, A. (Alireza), Gill, P.S. (Paramjit Singh), Gona, P.N. (Philimon N.), Gopalani, S.V. (Sameer Vali), Grada, A. (Ayman), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Haj-Mirzaian, A. (Arvin), Haj-Mirzaian, A. (Arya), Hall, J.B. (Jason B.), Hamidi, S. (Samer), Henok, A. (Andualem), Prado, B.H. (Bernardo Hernández), Herrero, M. (Mario), Herteliu, C. (Claudiu), Hoang, C.L. (Chi Linh), Hole, M.K. (Michael K.), Hossain, N. (Naznin), Hosseinzadeh, M. (Mehdi), Hu, G. (Guoqing), Islam, S.M.S. (Sheikh Mohammed Shariful), Jakovljevic, M. (Mihajlo), Jha, R.P. (Ravi Prakash), Jonas, J.B. (Jost B.), Jozwiak, J.J. (Jacek Jerzy), Kahsay, A. (Amaha), Kanchan, T. (Tanuj), Karami, M. (Manoochehr), Kasaeian, A. (Amir), Khader, Y.S. (Yousef Saleh), Khan, E.A. (Ejaz Ahmad), Khater, M.M. (Mona M.), Kim, Y.J. (Yun Jin), Kimokoti, R.W. (Ruth W.), Kisa, A. (Adnan), Kochhar, S. (Sonali), Kosen, S. (Soewarta), Koyanagi, A. (Ai), Krishan, K. (Kewal), Defo, B.K. (Barthelemy Kuate), Kumar, G.A. (G. Anil), Kumar, M. (Manasi), Lad, S.D. (Sheetal D.), Lami, F.H. (Faris Hasan), Lee, P.H. (Paul H.), Levine, A.J. (Aubrey J.), Li, S. (Shanshan), Linn, S. (Shai), Lodha, R. (Rakesh), El Razek, H.M.A. (Hassan Magdy Abd), Abd El Razek, M.M. (Muhammed Magdy), Hosgood, H.D. (H Dean), Majeed, A. (Azeem), Malekzadeh, R. (Reza), Malta, D.C. (Deborah Carvalho), Mamun, A.A. (Abdullah A.), Mansournia, M.A. (Mohammad Ali), Martins-Melo, F.R. (Francisco Rogerlândio), Masaka, A. (Anthony), Massenburg, B.B. (Benjamin Ballard), Mayala, B.K. (Benjamin K.), Mejia-Rodriguez, F. (Fabiola), Melku, M. (Mulugeta), Mendoza, W. (Walter), Mensah, G.A. (George A.), Miazgowski, T. (T.), Miller, T.R. (Ted R.), Mini, G.K. (G. K.), Mirrakhimov, E.M. (Erkin M.), Moazen, B. (Babak), Darwesh, A.M. (Aso Mohammad), Mohammed, S. (Shafiu), Mohebi, F. (Farnam), Mokdad, A.H. (Ali H.), Moodley, Y. (Yoshan), Moradi, G. (Ghobad), Moradi-Lakeh, M. (Maziar), Moraga, P. (Paula), Morrison, S.D. (Shane Douglas), Mosser, J.F. (Jonathan F.), Mousavi, S.M. (Seyyed Meysam), Mueller, U.O. (Ulrich Otto), Murray, C.J.L. (Christopher J. L.), Mustafa, G. (Ghulam), Naderi, M. (Mehdi), Naghavi, M. (Morteza), Najafi, F. (Farid), Nangia, V. (Vinay), Ndwandwe, D.E. (Duduzile Edith), Negoi, I. (Ionut), Ngunjiri, J.W. (Josephine W.), Nguyen, H.L.T. (Huong Lan Thi), Nguyen, L.H. (Long Hoang), Nguyen, S.H. (Son Hoang), Nie, J. (Jing), Nnaji, C.A. (Chukwudi A.), Noubiap, J.J. (Jean Jacques), Shiadeh, M.N. (Malihe Nourollahpour), Nyasulu, P.S. (Peter S.), Ogbo, F.A. (Felix Akpojene), Olagunju, A.T. (Andrew T.), Olusanya, B.O. (Bolajoko O), Olusanya, J.O. (Jacob Olusegun), Ortiz-Panozo, E. (Eduardo), Otstavnov, S.S. (Stanislav S.), P. A, M. (Mahesh), Pana, A. (Adrian), Pandey, A. (Anamika), Pati, S. (Sanghamitra), Patil, S.T. (Snehal T.), Patton, G.C. (George C.), Perico, N. (Norberto), Pigott, D.M. (David M.), Pirsaheb, M. (Meghdad), Piwoz, E.G. (Ellen G.), Postma, M.J. (Maarten), Pourshams, A. (Akram), Prakash, S. (Swayam), Quintana, H. (Hedley), Radfar, A. (Amir), Rafiei, A. (Alireza), Rahimi-Movaghar, V. (Vafa), Rai, R.K. (Rajesh Kumar), Rajati, F. (Fatemeh), Rawaf, D.L. (David Laith), Rawaf, S. (Salman), Rawat, R. (Rahul), Remuzzi, G. (Giuseppe), Renzaho, A.M.N. (Andre M. N.), Rios-González, C. (Carlos), Roever, L. (Leonardo), Ross, J.M. (Jennifer M.), Rostami, A. (Ali), Sadat, N. (Nafis), Safari, Y. (Yahya), Safdarian, M. (Mahdi), Sahebkar, A. (Amirhossein), Salam, N. (Nasir), Salamati, P. (Payman), Salimi, Y. (Yahya), Salimzadeh, H. (Hamideh), Samy, A.M. (Abdallah M.), Sartorius, B. (Benn), Sathian, B. (Brijesh), Schipp, M.F. (Megan F.), Schwebel, D.C. (David C), Senbeta, A.M. (Anbissa Muleta), Sepanlou, S.G. (Sadaf G), Shaikh, M.A. (Masood Ali), Levy, T.S. (Teresa Shamah), Shamsi, M. (Mohammadbagher), Sharafi, K. (Kiomars), Sharma, R. (Rajesh), Sheikh, A. (Aziz), Shil, A. (Apurba), Silva, D.A.S. (Diego Augusto Santos), Singh, J.A. (Jasvinder A.), Sinha, D.N. (Dhirendra Narain), Soofi, M. (Moslem), Sudaryanto, A. (Agus), Sufiyan, M.B. (Muawiyyah Babale), Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. (Rafael), Tadesse, B.T. (Birkneh Tilahun), Temsah, M.-H. (Mohamad-Hani), Terkawi, A.S. (Abdullah Sulieman), Tessema, Z.T. (Zemenu Tadesse), Thorne-Lyman, A.L. (Andrew L.), Tovani-Palone, M.R. (Marcos Roberto), Tran, B.X. (Bach Xuan), Tran, K.B. (Khanh Bao), Ullah, I. (Irfan), Uthman, O.A. (Olalekan A.), Vaezghasemi, M. (Masoud), Vaezi, A. (Afsane), Valdez, P.R. (Pascual R.), Vanderheide, J. (John), Veisani, Y. (Yousef), Violante, F.S. (Francesco S), Vlassov, V. (Vasily), Vu, G.T. (Giang Thu), Vu, L.G. (Linh Gia), Waheed, Y. (Yasir), Walson, J.L. (Judd L.), Wang, Y. (Yafeng), Wang, Y.-P. (Yuan-Pang), Wangia, E.N. (Elizabeth N.), Werdecker, A. (Andrea), Xu, G. (Gelin), Yamada, T. (Tomohide), Yisma, E. (Engida), Yonemoto, N. (Naohiro), Younis, M.Z. (Mustafa Z.), Yousefifard, M. (Mahmoud), Yu, C. (Chuanhua), Zaman, S.B. (Sojib Bin), Zamani, M. (Mohammad), Zhang, Y. (Yunquan), Kassebaum, N.J. (Nicholas J.), Hay, S.I. (Simon), Kinyoki, D.K. (Damaris K.), Osgood-Zimmerman, A.E. (Aaron E.), Pickering, B.V. (Brandon V.), Schaeffer, L.E. (Lauren E.), Marczak, L.B. (Laurie B.), Lazzar-Atwood, A. (Alice), Collison, M.L. (Michael L.), Henry, N.J. (Nathaniel J.), Abebe, Z. (Zegeye), Adamu, A.A. (Abdu A.), Adekanmbi, V. (Victor), Ahmadi, K. (Keivan), Ajumobi, O. (Olufemi), Al-Eyadhy, A. (Ayman), Al-Raddadi, R.M. (Rajaa M.), Alahdab, F. (Fares), Alijanzadeh, M. (Mehran), Alipour, V. (Vahid), Altirkawi, K. (Khalid), Amini, S. (Saeed), Andrei, C.L. (Catalina Liliana), Antonio, C.A.T. (Carl Abelardo T), Arabloo, J. (Jalal), Aremu, O. (Olatunde), Asadi-Aliabadi, M. (Mehran), Atique, S. (Suleman), Ausloos, M. (Marcel), Avila, M. (Marco), Awasthi, A. (Ashish), Quintanilla, B.P.A. (Beatriz Paulina Ayala), Azari, S. (Samad), Badawi, A. (Alaa), Bärnighausen, T. (Till), Bassat, Q. (Quique), Baye, K. (Kaleab), Bedi, N. (Neeraj), Bekele, B.B. (Bayu Begashaw), Bell, M.L. (Michelle L.), Bhattacharjee, N.V. (Natalia V.), Bhattacharyya, K. (Krittika), Bhattarai, S. (Suraj), Bhutta, Z.A. (Zulfiqar A), Biadgo, B. (Belete), Bikbov, B. (Boris), Briko, A.N. (Andrey Nikolaevich), Britton, G. (Gabrielle), Burstein, D. (David), Butt, Z.A. (Zahid A.), Car, J. (Josip), Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. (Carlos A), Castro, F. (Franz), Cerin, E. (Ester), Chipeta, M.G. (Michael G.), Chu, D.-T. (Dinh-Toi), Cork, M.A. (Michael A.), Cromwell, E.A. (Elizabeth A.), Cuevas-Nasu, L. (Lucía), Dandona, L. (Lalit), Dandona, R. (Rakhi), Daoud, F. (Farah), Gupta, R.D. (Rajat Das), Weaver, N.D. (Nicole Davis), Leo, D.D. (Diego De), Neve, J.-W.D. (Jan-Walter De), Deribe, K. (Kebede), Desalegn, B.B. (Beruk Berhanu), Deshpande, A. (Aniruddha), Desta, M. (Melaku), Diaz, D. (Daniel), Dinberu, M.T. (Mesfin Tadese), Doku, D.T. (David Teye), Dubey, M. (Manisha), Durães, A.R. (Andre R.), Dwyer-Lindgren, L.A. (Laura), Earl, L. (Lucas), Effiong, A. (Andem), Zaki, M.E.S. (Maysaa El Sayed), Tantawi, M.E. (Maha El), El-Khatib, Z. (Ziad), Eshrati, B. (Babak), Fareed, M. (Mohammad), Faro, A. (Andre), Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. (Seyed-Mohammad), Filip, I. (Irina), Fischer, F. (Florian), Foigt, N.A. (Nataliya A.), Folayan, M.O. (Morenike Oluwatoyin), Fukumoto, T. (Takeshi), Gebrehiwot, T.T. (Tsegaye Tewelde), Gezae, K.E. (Kebede Embaye), Ghajar, A. (Alireza), Gill, P.S. (Paramjit Singh), Gona, P.N. (Philimon N.), Gopalani, S.V. (Sameer Vali), Grada, A. (Ayman), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Haj-Mirzaian, A. (Arvin), Haj-Mirzaian, A. (Arya), Hall, J.B. (Jason B.), Hamidi, S. (Samer), Henok, A. (Andualem), Prado, B.H. (Bernardo Hernández), Herrero, M. (Mario), Herteliu, C. (Claudiu), Hoang, C.L. (Chi Linh), Hole, M.K. (Michael K.), Hossain, N. (Naznin), Hosseinzadeh, M. (Mehdi), Hu, G. (Guoqing), Islam, S.M.S. (Sheikh Mohammed Shariful), Jakovljevic, M. (Mihajlo), Jha, R.P. (Ravi Prakash), Jonas, J.B. (Jost B.), Jozwiak, J.J. (Jacek Jerzy), Kahsay, A. (Amaha), Kanchan, T. (Tanuj), Karami, M. (Manoochehr), Kasaeian, A. (Amir), Khader, Y.S. (Yousef Saleh), Khan, E.A. (Ejaz Ahmad), Khater, M.M. (Mona M.), Kim, Y.J. (Yun Jin), Kimokoti, R.W. (Ruth W.), Kisa, A. (Adnan), Kochhar, S. (Sonali), Kosen, S. (Soewarta), Koyanagi, A. (Ai), Krishan, K. (Kewal), Defo, B.K. (Barthelemy Kuate), Kumar, G.A. (G. Anil), Kumar, M. (Manasi), Lad, S.D. (Sheetal D.), Lami, F.H. (Faris Hasan), Lee, P.H. (Paul H.), Levine, A.J. (Aubrey J.), Li, S. (Shanshan), Linn, S. (Shai), Lodha, R. (Rakesh), El Razek, H.M.A. (Hassan Magdy Abd), Abd El Razek, M.M. (Muhammed Magdy), Hosgood, H.D. (H Dean), Majeed, A. (Azeem), Malekzadeh, R. (Reza), Malta, D.C. (Deborah Carvalho), Mamun, A.A. (Abdullah A.), Mansournia, M.A. (Mohammad Ali), Martins-Melo, F.R. (Francisco Rogerlândio), Masaka, A. (Anthony), Massenburg, B.B. (Benjamin Ballard), Mayala, B.K. (Benjamin K.), Mejia-Rodriguez, F. (Fabiola), Melku, M. (Mulugeta), Mendoza, W. (Walter), Mensah, G.A. (George A.), Miazgowski, T. (T.), Miller, T.R. (Ted R.), Mini, G.K. (G. K.), Mirrakhimov, E.M. (Erkin M.), Moazen, B. (Babak), Darwesh, A.M. (Aso Mohammad), Mohammed, S. (Shafiu), Mohebi, F. (Farnam), Mokdad, A.H. (Ali H.), Moodley, Y. (Yoshan), Moradi, G. (Ghobad), Moradi-Lakeh, M. (Maziar), Moraga, P. (Paula), Morrison, S.D. (Shane Douglas), Mosser, J.F. (Jonathan F.), Mousavi, S.M. (Seyyed Meysam), Mueller, U.O. (Ulrich Otto), Murray, C.J.L. (Christopher J. L.), Mustafa, G. (Ghulam), Naderi, M. (Mehdi), Naghavi, M. (Morteza), Najafi, F. (Farid), Nangia, V. (Vinay), Ndwandwe, D.E. (Duduzile Edith), Negoi, I. (Ionut), Ngunjiri, J.W. (Josephine W.), Nguyen, H.L.T. (Huong Lan Thi), Nguyen, L.H. (Long Hoang), Nguyen, S.H. (Son Hoang), Nie, J. (Jing), Nnaji, C.A. (Chukwudi A.), Noubiap, J.J. (Jean Jacques), Shiadeh, M.N. (Malihe Nourollahpour), Nyasulu, P.S. (Peter S.), Ogbo, F.A. (Felix Akpojene), Olagunju, A.T. (Andrew T.), Olusanya, B.O. (Bolajoko O), Olusanya, J.O. (Jacob Olusegun), Ortiz-Panozo, E. (Eduardo), Otstavnov, S.S. (Stanislav S.), P. A, M. (Mahesh), Pana, A. (Adrian), Pandey, A. (Anamika), Pati, S. (Sanghamitra), Patil, S.T. (Snehal T.), Patton, G.C. (George C.), Perico, N. (Norberto), Pigott, D.M. (David M.), Pirsaheb, M. (Meghdad), Piwoz, E.G. (Ellen G.), Postma, M.J. (Maarten), Pourshams, A. (Akram), Prakash, S. (Swayam), Quintana, H. (Hedley), Radfar, A. (Amir), Rafiei, A. (Alireza), Rahimi-Movaghar, V. (Vafa), Rai, R.K. (Rajesh Kumar), Rajati, F. (Fatemeh), Rawaf, D.L. (David Laith), Rawaf, S. (Salman), Rawat, R. (Rahul), Remuzzi, G. (Giuseppe), Renzaho, A.M.N. (Andre M. N.), Rios-González, C. (Carlos), Roever, L. (Leonardo), Ross, J.M. (Jennifer M.), Rostami, A. (Ali), Sadat, N. (Nafis), Safari, Y. (Yahya), Safdarian, M. (Mahdi), Sahebkar, A. (Amirhossein), Salam, N. (Nasir), Salamati, P. (Payman), Salimi, Y. (Yahya), Salimzadeh, H. (Hamideh), Samy, A.M. (Abdallah M.), Sartorius, B. (Benn), Sathian, B. (Brijesh), Schipp, M.F. (Megan F.), Schwebel, D.C. (David C), Senbeta, A.M. (Anbissa Muleta), Sepanlou, S.G. (Sadaf G), Shaikh, M.A. (Masood Ali), Levy, T.S. (Teresa Shamah), Shamsi, M. (Mohammadbagher), Sharafi, K. (Kiomars), Sharma, R. (Rajesh), Sheikh, A. (Aziz), Shil, A. (Apurba), Silva, D.A.S. (Diego Augusto Santos), Singh, J.A. (Jasvinder A.), Sinha, D.N. (Dhirendra Narain), Soofi, M. (Moslem), Sudaryanto, A. (Agus), Sufiyan, M.B. (Muawiyyah Babale), Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. (Rafael), Tadesse, B.T. (Birkneh Tilahun), Temsah, M.-H. (Mohamad-Hani), Terkawi, A.S. (Abdullah Sulieman), Tessema, Z.T. (Zemenu Tadesse), Thorne-Lyman, A.L. (Andrew L.), Tovani-Palone, M.R. (Marcos Roberto), Tran, B.X. (Bach Xuan), Tran, K.B. (Khanh Bao), Ullah, I. (Irfan), Uthman, O.A. (Olalekan A.), Vaezghasemi, M. (Masoud), Vaezi, A. (Afsane), Valdez, P.R. (Pascual R.), Vanderheide, J. (John), Veisani, Y. (Yousef), Violante, F.S. (Francesco S), Vlassov, V. (Vasily), Vu, G.T. (Giang Thu), Vu, L.G. (Linh Gia), Waheed, Y. (Yasir), Walson, J.L. (Judd L.), Wang, Y. (Yafeng), Wang, Y.-P. (Yuan-Pang), Wangia, E.N. (Elizabeth N.), Werdecker, A. (Andrea), Xu, G. (Gelin), Yamada, T. (Tomohide), Yisma, E. (Engida), Yonemoto, N. (Naohiro), Younis, M.Z. (Mustafa Z.), Yousefifard, M. (Mahmoud), Yu, C. (Chuanhua), Zaman, S.B. (Sojib Bin), Zamani, M. (Mohammad), Zhang, Y. (Yunquan), Kassebaum, N.J. (Nicholas J.), and Hay, S.I. (Simon)

Abstract

Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0–59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3–5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization’s median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas e

Published
2020
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5. Geostatistical analysis of Malawi's changing malaria transmission from 2010 to 2017

Author

Chipeta, M.G., Giorgi, E., Mategula, D., Macharia, P.M., Ligomba, C., Munyenyembe, A., Chirombo, J., Gumbo, A., Terlouw, D.J., Snow, R.W., Kayange, M., Chipeta, M.G., Giorgi, E., Mategula, D., Macharia, P.M., Ligomba, C., Munyenyembe, A., Chirombo, J., Gumbo, A., Terlouw, D.J., Snow, R.W., and Kayange, M.

Abstract

Background: The prevalence of malaria infection in time and space provides important information on the likely sub-national epidemiology of malaria burdens and how this has changed following intervention. Model-based geostatitics (MBG) allow national malaria control programmes to leverage multiple data sources to provide predictions of malaria prevalance by district over time. These methods are used to explore the possible changes in malaria prevalance in Malawi from 2010 to 2017. Methods: Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence (PfPR) surveys undertaken in Malawi between 2000 and 2017 were assembled. A spatio-temporal geostatistical model was fitted to predict annual malaria risk for children aged 2–10 years (PfPR2–10) at 1×1 km spatial resolutions. Parameter estimation was carried out using the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood methods. Population-adjusted prevalence and populations at risk by district were calculated for 2010 and 2017 to inform malaria control program priority setting. Results: 2,237 surveys at 1,834 communities undertaken between 2000 and 2017 were identified, geo-coded and used within the MBG framework to predict district malaria prevalence properties for 2010 and 2017. Nationally, there was a 47.2% reduction in the mean modelled PfPR2-10 from 29.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 26.6 to 32.3%) in 2010 to 15.2% (95% CI 13.3 to 18.0%) in 2017. Declining prevalence was not equal across the country, 25 of 27 districts showed a substantial decline ranging from a 3.3% reduction to 79% reduction. By 2017, 16% of Malawi’s population still lived in areas that support PfPR2-10 ≥ 25%. Conclusions: Malawi has made substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of malaria over the last seven years. However, Malawi remains in meso-endemic malaria transmission risk. To sustain the gains made and continue reducing the transmission further, universal control interventions need to be maintained at a national level. © 2019 Chipeta MG et al.

Published
2019

6. Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries

Author

Kinyoki D, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Pickering B, Schaeffer L, Marczak L, Lazzar-Atwood A, Collison M, Henry N, Abebe Z, Adamu A, Adekanmbi V, Ahmadi K, Ajumobi O, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Raddadi R, Alahdab F, Alijanzadeh M, Alipour V, Altirkawi K, Amini S, Andrei C, Antonio C, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Atique S, Ausloos M, Avila M, Awasthi A, Quintanilla B, Azari S, Badawi A, Barnighausen T, Bassat Q, Baye K, Bedi N, Bekele B, Bell M, Bhattacharjee N, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhutta Z, Biadgo B, Bikbov B, Briko A, Britton G, Burstein R, Butt Z, Car J, Castaneda-Orjuela C, Castro F, Cerin E, Chipeta M, Chu D, Cork M, Cromwell E, Cuevas-Nasu L, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daoud F, Das Gupta R, Weaver N, De Leo D, De Neve J, Deribe K, Desalegn B, Deshpande A, Desta M, Diaz D, Dinberu M, Doku D, Dubey M, Duraes A, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Earl L, Effiong A, Zaki M, El Tantawi M, El-Khatib Z, Eshrati B, Fareed M, Faro A, Fereshtehnejad S, Filip I, Fischer F, Foigt N, Folayan M, Fukumoto T, Gebrehiwot T, Gezae K, Ghajar A, Gill P, Gona P, Gopalani S, Grada A, Guo Y, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hall J, Hamidi S, Henok A, Prado B, Herrero M, Herteliu C, Hoang C, Hole M, Hossain N, Hosseinzadeh M, Hu G, Islam S, Jakovljevic M, Jha R, Jonas J, Jozwiak J, Kahsay A, Kanchan T, Karami M, Kasaeian A, Khader Y, Khan E, Khater M, Kim Y, Kimokoti R, Kisa A, Kochhar S, Kosen S, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Defo B, Kumar G, Kumar M, Lad S, Lami F, Lee P, Levine A, Li S, Linn S, Lodha R, Abd El Razek H, Abd El Razek M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta D, Mamun A, Mansournia M, Martins-Melo F, Masaka A, Massenburg B, Mayala B, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Melku M, Mendoza W, Mensah G, Miazgowski T, Miller T, Mini G, Mirrakhimov E, Moazen B, Darwesh A, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Mokdad A, Moodley Y, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morrison S, Mosser J, Mousavi S, Mueller U, Murray C, Mustafa G, Naderi M, Naghavi M, Najafi F, Nangia V, Ndwandwe D, Negoi I, Ngunjiri J, Nguyen H, Nguyen L, Nguyen S, Nie J, Nnaji C, Noubiap J, Shiadeh M, Nyasulu P, Ogbo F, Olagunju A, Olusanya B, Olusanya J, Ortiz-Panozo E, Otstavnov S, Mahesh P, Pana A, Pandey A, Pati S, Patil S, Patton G, Perico N, Pigott D, Pirsaheb M, Piwoz E, Postma M, Pourshams A, Prakash S, Quintana H, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rai R, Rajati F, Rawaf D, Rawaf S, Rawat R, Remuzzi G, Renzaho A, Rios-Gonzalez C, Roever L, Ross J, Rostami A, Sadat N, Safari Y, Safdarian M, Sahebkar A, Salam N, Salamati P, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Samy A, Sartorius B, Sathian B, Schipp M, Schwebel D, Senbeta A, Sepanlou S, Shaikh M, Levy T, Shamsi M, Sharafi K, Sharma R, Sheikh A, Shil A, Silva D, Singh J, Sinha D, Soofi M, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan M, Tabares-Seisdedos R, Tadesse B, Temsah M, Terkawi A, Tessema Z, Thorne-Lyman A, Tovani-Palone M, Tran B, Tran K, Ullah I, Uthman O, Vaezghasemi M, Vaezi A, Valdez P, Vanderheide J, Veisani Y, Violante F, Vlassov V, Vu G, Vu L, Waheed Y, Walson J, Wang Y, Wangia E, Werdecker A, Xu G, Yamada T, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Younis M, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Bin Zaman S, Zamani M, Zhang Y, Kassebaum N, Hay S, Local Burden Dis Child Growth Fail, Public Health, Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Kinyoki, Damaris K, Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron E, Pickering, Brandon V, Schaeffer, Lauren E, Yisma, Engida, Hay, Simon I, Local Burden of Disease Child Growth Failure Collaborators, Kinyoki D.K., Osgood-Zimmerman A.E., Pickering B.V., Schaeffer L.E., Marczak L.B., Lazzar-Atwood A., Collison M.L., Henry N.J., Abebe Z., Adamu A.A., Adekanmbi V., Ahmadi K., Ajumobi O., Al-Eyadhy A., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alahdab F., Alijanzadeh M., Alipour V., Altirkawi K., Amini S., Andrei C.L., Antonio C.A.T., Arabloo J., Aremu O., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Atique S., Ausloos M., Avila M., Awasthi A., Quintanilla B.P.A., Azari S., Badawi A., Barnighausen T.W., Bassat Q., Baye K., Bedi N., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bhattacharjee N.V., Bhattacharyya K., Bhattarai S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bikbov B., Briko A.N., Britton G., Burstein R., Butt Z.A., Car J., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castro F., Cerin E., Chipeta M.G., Chu D.-T., Cork M.A., Cromwell E.A., Cuevas-Nasu L., Dandona L., Dandona R., Daoud F., Gupta R.D., Weaver N.D., Leo D.D., Neve J.-W.D., Deribe K., Desalegn B.B., Deshpande A., Desta M., Diaz D., Dinberu M.T., Doku D.T., Dubey M., Duraes A.R., Dwyer-Lindgren L., Earl L., Effiong A., Zaki M.E.S., Tantawi M.E., El-Khatib Z., Eshrati B., Fareed M., Faro A., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Filip I., Fischer F., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Fukumoto T., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gezae K.E., Ghajar A., Gill P.S., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Grada A., Guo Y., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hall J.B., Hamidi S., Henok A., Prado B.H., Herrero M., Herteliu C., Hoang C.L., Hole M.K., Hossain N., Hosseinzadeh M., Hu G., Islam S.M.S., Jakovljevic M., Jha R.P., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Kahsay A., Kanchan T., Karami M., Kasaeian A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khater M.M., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kisa A., Kochhar S., Kosen S., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Defo B.K., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Lad S.D., Lami F.H., Lee P.H., Levine A.J., Li S., Linn S., Lodha R., El Razek H.M.A., Abd El Razek M.M., Majdan M., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Mansournia M.A., Martins-Melo F.R., Masaka A., Massenburg B.B., Mayala B.K., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Melku M., Mendoza W., Mensah G.A., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G.K., Mirrakhimov E.M., Moazen B., Darwesh A.M., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Mokdad A.H., Moodley Y., Moradi G., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morrison S.D., Mosser J.F., Mousavi S.M., Mueller U.O., Murray C.J.L., Mustafa G., Naderi M., Naghavi M., Najafi F., Nangia V., Ndwandwe D.E., Negoi I., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen S.H., Nie J., Nnaji C.A., Noubiap J.J., Shiadeh M.N., Nyasulu P.S., Ogbo F.A., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ortiz-Panozo E., Otstavnov S.S., P. A M., Pana A., Pandey A., Pati S., Patil S.T., Patton G.C., Perico N., Pigott D.M., Pirsaheb M., Piwoz E.G., Postma M.J., Pourshams A., Prakash S., Quintana H., Radfar A., Rafiei A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rai R.K., Rajati F., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Rawat R., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Rios-Gonzalez C., Roever L., Ross J.M., Rostami A., Sadat N., Safari Y., Safdarian M., Sahebkar A., Salam N., Salamati P., Salimi Y., Salimzadeh H., Samy A.M., Sartorius B., Sathian B., Schipp M.F., Schwebel D.C., Senbeta A.M., Sepanlou S.G., Shaikh M.A., Levy T.S., Shamsi M., Sharafi K., Sharma R., Sheikh A., Shil A., Silva D.A.S., Singh J.A., Sinha D.N., Soofi M., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadesse B.T., Temsah M.-H., Terkawi A.S., Tessema Z.T., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Tovani-Palone M.R., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Ullah I., Uthman O.A., Vaezghasemi M., Vaezi A., Valdez P.R., Vanderheide J., Veisani Y., Violante F.S., Vlassov V., Vu G.T., Vu L.G., Waheed Y., Walson J.L., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wangia E.N., Werdecker A., Xu G., Yamada T., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zhang Y., Kassebaum N.J., and Hay S.I.

Subjects
Time Factors, Developmental Disabilities, Psychological intervention, Distribution (economics), 0302 clinical medicine, risk factors, 030212 general & internal medicine, Signs and symptoms, Wasting, Children, Local Burden of Disease Child Growth Failure Collaborators, 2. Zero hunger, Multidisciplinary, Under-five, 1. No poverty, Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology, A900 Others in Medicine and Dentistry, 3. Good health, Multidisciplinary Sciences, Geography, Child, Preschool, Science & Technology - Other Topics, HEALTH, Underweight, medicine.symptom, social sciences, Infants, AFRICA, medicine.medical_specialty, General Science & Technology, RJ, Developing country, Nutritional Status, World Health Organization, Child Nutrition Disorders, Article, Social sciences, Malnutrició, 03 medical and health sciences, AGE, Environmental health, medicine, Mortalitat, Humans, Mortality, Developing Countries, Science & Technology, business.industry, Public health, MORTALITY, Body Weight, Malnutrition, Infant, Newborn, Infant, Child growth failure, medicine.disease, signs and symptoms, Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi, Risk factors, WEIGHT, business, RA, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery
Abstract

Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0–59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3–5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization’s median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning interventions that are adapted locally and in efficiently directing resources towards reducing CGF and its health implications., High-resolution subnational mapping of child growth failure indicators for 105 low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017 shows that, despite considerable progress, substantial geographical inequalities still exist in some countries.

Published
2020

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