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Small area (or small domain) estimation is still rarely applied in business statistics, because of challenges arising from the skewness and variability of variables such as turnover. We examine a range of small area estimation methods as the basis for estimating the activity of industries within the retail sector in the Netherlands. We use tax register data and a sampling procedure which replicates the sampling for the retail sector of Statistics Netherlands’ Structural Business Survey as a basis for investigating the properties of small area estimators. In particular, we consider the use of the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) under a random effects model and variations of the EBLUP derived under (a) a random effects model that includes a complex specification for the level 1 variance and (b) a random effects model that is fitted by using the survey weights. Although accounting for the survey weights in estimation is important, the impact of influential data points remains the main challenge in this case. The paper further explores the use of outlier robust estimators in business surveys, in particular a robust version of the EBLUP, M-regression-based synthetic estimators and M-quantile small area estimators. The latter family of small area estimators includes robust projective (without and with survey weights) and robust predictive versions. M-quantile methods have the lowest empirical mean squared error and are substantially better than direct estimators, although there is an open question about how to choose the tuning constant for bias adjustment in practice. The paper makes a further contribution by exploring a doubly robust approach comprising the use of survey weights in conjunction with outlier robust methods in small area estimation.

This study examines two entries in Huang Zhong’s Words of the Sea: ‘fierce-fire oil’ and ‘tumi-dew’ (rose-water), whose connection goes back at least to the tenth century, when they were offered as tributes by the king of Champa. They continued to appear together down through the centuries, thus reinforcing the idea of a particular relation; a curious circumstance, given their utterly different nature: an incendiary medium to destroy enemies, and an intoxicating fragrance. Going back in time, one realizes that they shared a Middle Eastern origin: Byzantium, Persia and the Arabian Peninsula. As the sea-routes took on a more prominent role and new powers like Srivijaya emerged (see Kulke, 2016), they got to be appreciated along the shores of the Indian Ocean, where they generated such great profits that the locals learned to manufacture their own alternatives. Huang Zhong seems to be the first to name ‘tumi-flower dew’ this alternative rose-water.

Success of radiotherapy in eradicating a tumour depends principally on the total radiation given, but the tolerance of healthy tissues surrounding the tumour limits its dose. The clinical manifestations of either acute or late radiation toxicity can be quite severe. Complementary and integrative medicines have recently attracted the interest of researchers and medical practitioners since several trials showed some evidence about the benefi ts of using herbal medicine and acupuncture for cancer-related fatigue, nausea and vomiting, diarrhea, oncological pain, radiodermitis, mucositis, anxiety, and depression. There is also very good evidence for the effi cacy of sport/physical activity and nutrition in oncology, where a regular diet of vegetables is recommended. Physical activity is recommended also during chemo/radiotherapy for the reduction of treatment side effects. Dietary modifi cation such as caloric restriction has been shown to decrease tumour initiation and progression, and could be used during radiotherapy as a novel therapeutic intervention to enhance the cytotoxic effect on the tumour and reduce the cytotoxic effects on healthy tissue.

We analyse tourism behaviour of Italian residents in the period covering the 2008 Great Recession. Using the Trips of Italian Residents in Italy and Abroad quarterly survey, carried out by the Italian National Institute of Statistics, we investigate whether and how the economic recession has affected the total number of overnight stays. The response variable is the result of a two-stage decision process: first we choose to take a holiday, then for how long. Moreover, since the number of overnight stays is typically concentrated on specific lengths (week-end, week, fortnight) we observe multiple peculiar spikes in its distribution. To take into account these two distinctive characteristics, we generalise the usual hurdle regression model by specifying a multiple inflated truncated negative binomial distribution for the positive responses. Results show that the economic recession impacted negatively on both components of the decision process and that, by controlling for the inflated nature of the response variable’s distribution, the proposed formulation provides a better representation of the Italians’ tourism behaviour in comparison with non-inflated hurdle models. Given this, we believe that our model can be a useful tool for policy makers who are trying to forecast the effects of new targeted policies to support tourism economy.

This paper presents a meta-regression analysis of recent micro-econometric evaluations of enterprise and innovation policies implemented in Italy. We categorise 478 programme impacts from 43 studies, all obtained using methods that are appropriate for causal inference in observational settings, and analyse which programme, study and estimate characteristics are associated with higher probability of success net of unobserved heterogeneity at the study level. We find that several types of programmes yield non-negligible probability of success and that the outcome variable used to measure programme impact matters. If there exist any differential in probability of success between the government levels that may deliver the programmes, this differential is favourable to regional governments.

When surveys are not originally designed to produce estimates for small geographical areas, some of these domains can be poorly represented in the sample. In such cases, model-based small area estimators can be used to improve the accuracy of the estimates by borrowing information from other sub-populations. Frequently, in surveys related to agriculture, forestry or the environment, we are interested in analyzing continuous variables which are characterized by a strong spatial structure, a skewed distribution and a point mass at zero. In such cases, standard methods for small area estimation, which are based on linear mixed models, can be inefficient. The aim of this chapter is to discuss small area estimation models suggested in literature to handle zero-inflated, skewed, spatially structured data and to present them under the unified approach of generalized two-part random effects models.

Summary: Memory B cells (MBCs) epitomize the adaptation of the immune system to the environment. We identify two MBC subsets in peripheral blood, CD27dull and CD27bright MBCs, whose frequency changes with age. Heavy chain variable region (VH) usage, somatic mutation frequency replacement-to-silent ratio, and CDR3 property changes, reflecting consecutive selection of highly antigen-specific, low cross-reactive antibody variants, all demonstrate that CD27dull and CD27bright MBCs represent sequential MBC developmental stages, and stringent antigen-driven pressure selects CD27dull into the CD27bright MBC pool. Dynamics of human MBCs are exploited in pregnancy, when 50% of maternal MBCs are lost and CD27dull MBCs transit to the more differentiated CD27bright stage. In the postpartum period, the maternal MBC pool is replenished by the expansion of persistent CD27dull clones. Thus, the stability and flexibility of human B cell memory is ensured by CD27dull MBCs that expand and differentiate in response to change. : Grimsholm et al. show that CD27dull and CD27bright represent sequential MBC developmental stages. T cell- and germinal center (GC)-independent CD27dull MBCs are the plastic source of strongly selected and GC-dependent CD27bright MBCs. CD27dull MBCs, able to expand and differentiate in response to change, ensure stability and flexibility of human B cell memory. Keywords: memory B cells, pregnancy, immunological memory, CD27, VH repertoire, immunodeficiency, aging, spleen, vaccine, germinal center

This paper aims to estimate, through the use of a spatial model, the determinants of fiscal policies on property tax adopted by Italian municipalities in 2014, to assess the existence of strategic interactions influencing their revenue decisions and, finally, to investigate the possible sources of such tax mimicking. The analysis evaluates the impact of political and socio‐economic variables on the local policy decisions and confirms that the choices on property tax are influenced by the neighbouring municipalities’ behaviour. With regard to the tax mimicking sources, results highlight that the imitative behaviour among municipalities on their tax policy is determined mainly from spillover effects, with a decreasing effect in relation to municipal size. El objetivo de este articulo es estimar, mediante el uso de un modelo espacial, los determinantes de las politicas fiscales sobre los impuestos sobre la propiedad inmobiliaria adoptadas por los municipios italianos en 2014, con el proposito de evaluar la existencia de interacciones estrategicas que influyen en sus decisiones en cuanto a los ingresos fiscales y, finalmente, investigar las posibles fuentes de dicha imitacion fiscal. El analisis evalua el impacto de variables politicas y socioeconomicas en las decisiones sobre las politicas locales y confirma que las decisiones en materia de impuestos sobre la propiedad inmobiliaria estan influenciadas por el comportamiento de los municipios vecinos. Por lo que se refiere a las fuentes de imitacion fiscal, los resultados ponen de manifiesto que el comportamiento imitador de los municipios en su politica fiscal viene determinado principalmente por los efectos de spillover, con un efecto decreciente en relacion con el tamano de los municipios. 本稿では、空間モデルを使用し、2014年にイタリアの地方自治体が採用した固定資産税に対する財政政策の決定因子を推定して、税収決定に影響を与える政策的相互作用の有無を評価し、最終的にはtax mimickingの原資となるものを調査する。分析により、地方自治の政策決定に対する政治的および社会経済的変数のインパクトを評価し、固定資産税に関する選択は、近隣の自治体の行動に影響されることを確認する。tax mimickingの原資に関しては、分析の結果から、税制政策に関する自治体間の模倣行為は主にスピルオーバー効果により決定され、自治体の規模に関連して効果が減少していることが明確に示される。

Memory B cells (MBCs) epitomize the adaptation of the immune system to the environment. We identify two MBC subsets in peripheral blood, CD27

This article presents an annotated translation of the section on birds in Liu Xun’s Lingbiao lu yi (late 9th century). The author describes eleven birds of the Lingbiao region (roughly Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan) in short notes that mix real and fictitious elements. This region, always considered dangerous and poorly civilized, was certainly not among the favorite locations of China’s civil servants. Although Liu Xun spent several years in the far South, very little is known about his life. But one can imagine that he felt unhappy in these lands, while at the same time admiring some of its unique features. That also applies to the entries on birds, especially on owls, in his text. The article is an attempt at “deciphering” these parts., Ce travail présente une traduction annotée de la section consacrée aux oiseaux dans l’ouvrage Lingbiao lu yi de Liu Xun (fin du IXe siècle). L’auteur choisit onze oiseaux de la région Lingbiao (correspondant à peu près au Guangdong, au Guangxi et à Hainan), et leur dédia des notes où les éléments réels et fantastiques paraissent entremêlés. Cette région, considérée comme peu civilisée et dangereuse, n’était pas un lieu où l’on souhaitait être envoyé comme fonctionnaire d’État. Liu Xun y servit pendant plusieurs années, mais on sait peu de choses de sa vie. On peut toutefois imaginer qu’il a été malheureux en ces terres lointaines, tout en étant admiratif de certaines de leurs particularités. Cela s’applique aussi aux descriptions des oiseaux dans son texte, notamment celles des hiboux. L’article est une tentative de « déchiffrer » ces passages., Bocci Chiara, Ptak Roderich. The Entries on Birds in Liu Xun’s Lingbiao lu yi. In: Bulletin de l'Ecole française d'Extrême-Orient. Tome 102, 2016. pp. 297-351.

Un recente filone nella letteratura di program evaluation riguarda la stima di effetti causali in presenza di trattamenti continui. Allo scopo possono essere impiegate, sotto ipotesi di non confondimento, delle funzioni dose-risposta basate sulla metodologia dei propensity scores. Un interessante ambito di applicazione e quello dei programmi di sussidiazione alla r&s, dove ancora poco si sa su quale sia la giusta dimensione dei sussidi o degli investimenti privati da sussidiare. Analizzando un programma per la r&s delle pmi attuato in Toscana, troviamo che la relazione tra sussidio e investimento futuro in r&s, rappresentata dalla funzione dose-risposta, assume una forma, approssimativamente, U-rovesciata.

The paper is devoted to explore how the increasing availability of spatial micro-data, jointly with the diffusion of GIS software, allows to exploit micro-econometric methods based on stochastic spatial point processes in order to understand the factors that may influence the location decisions of new firms. By using the knowledge of the geographical coordinates of the newborn firms, their spatial distribution is treated as a realization of an inhomogeneous marked point process in the continuous space and the effect of spatial-varying factors on the location decisions is evaluated by parametrically modelling the intensity of the process. The study is motivated by the real issue of analysing the birth process of small and medium manufacturing firms in Tuscany, an Italian region, and it shows that the location choices of the new Tuscan firms is influenced on the one hand by the availability of infrastructures and the level of accessibility, and on the other by the presence and the characteristics of the exi...

Vici syndrome is a human inherited multi-system disorder caused by recessive mutations in EPG5, encoding the EPG5 protein that mediates the fusion of autophagosomes with lysosomes. Immunodeficiency characterized by lack of memory B cells and increased susceptibility to infection is an integral part of the condition, but the role of EPG5 in the immune system remains unknown. Here we show that EPG5 is indispensable for the transport of the TLR9 ligand CpG to the late endosomal-lysosomal compartment, and for TLR9-initiated signaling, a step essential for the survival of human memory B cells and their ultimate differentiation into plasma cells. Moreover, the predicted structure of EPG5 includes a membrane remodeling domain and a karyopherin-like domain, thus explaining its function as a carrier between separate vesicular compartments. Our findings indicate that EPG5, by controlling nucleic acids intracellular trafficking, links macroautophagy/autophagy to innate and adaptive immunity.

This work has the purpose of inquiring into the presence of an urban hierarchy within second-tier city areas and alternative agglomeration models differing in their self-propelling ability and territorial sustainability. To this aim we confront regional polycentric areas, by going inside the traditional agglomeration and variety economies and the land settlement model of small–medium urban poles. In particular, the present work compares four Italian regions characterized by a territorial development driven by second-tier cities. The first two sections of the paper evaluate the functional pattern of the different urban systems and subsequently measure their rank in terms of extra-regional attractiveness on demand, which is expressed by rare services (Sections 2 and 3). Sections 4 and 5 tackle the issue of sustainability of settlements by taking into account land consumption and the degree of territorial fragmentation caused by different urbanization models. We discovered good urban performances and...

The paper deals with the matter of producing geographical domains estimates for a variable with a spatial pattern in presence of incomplete information about the population units location. The spatial distribution of the study variable and its eventual relations with other covariates are modeled by a geoadditive regression. The use of such a model to produce model-based estimates for some geographical domains requires all the population units to be referenced at point locations, however typically the spatial coordinates are known only for the sampled units. An approach to treat the lack of geographical information for non-sampled units is suggested: it is proposed to impose a distribution on the spatial locations inside each domain. This is realized through a hierarchical Bayesian formulation of the geoadditive model in which a prior distribution on the spatial coordinates is defined. The performance of the proposed imputation approach is evaluated through various Markov Chain Monte Carlo experiments implemented under different scenarios.

We are interested in estimating small domain means of a response variable that shows a spatial trend and has a continuous skewed distribution with a large number of values clustered at zero. This kind of variable can occur in many surveys, like business or agricultural surveys: examples are the quantity of crops produced or the amount of land allocated for their production collected by the Farm Structure Survey driven by the Italian Statistical Institute. The small sample size within the areas requires the use of small area model dependent methods to increase the effective area sample size by using census and administrative auxiliary data. To account simultaneously for the excess of zeros, the skewness of the distribution and the possible spatial trend of the data, we present a two-part geoadditive small area model. An application to the estimation of the per-farm average grapevine production in Tuscany at Agrarian Region level shows the satisfactory performance of the model.

e21623Background: Fatigue is one of the most distressing symptoms of cancer pts. Incidence, characteristics, impact on quality of life and treatment of cancer-related fatigue in Italian oncological...

(2011). THE ANIMAL SECTION IN BOYM’S (1612–1659) FLORA SINENSIS: PORTENTOUS CREATURES, HEALING STONES, VENOMS, AND OTHER CURIOSITIES. Monumenta Serica: Vol. 59, No. 1, pp. 353-381.

The mean of a balanced ranked set sample is more efficient than the mean of a simple random sample of equal size and the precision of ranked set sampling may be increased by using an unbalanced allocation when the population distribution is highly skewed. The aim of this paper is to show the practical benefits of the unequal allocation in estimating simultaneously the means of more skewed variables through real data. In particular, the allocation rule suggested in the literature for a single skewed distribution may be easily applied when more than one skewed variable are of interest and an auxiliary variable correlated with them is available. This method can lead to substantial gains in precision for all the study variables with respect to the simple random sampling, and to the balanced ranked set sampling too.

Delineation of target volumes is increasingly recognized as the most crucial step within the process of modern conformal radiotherapy. In the field of head and neck radiation oncology, the need for a standardized methodology in the delineation of nodal regions of the neck on computed tomography (CT) images has recently emerged. To address this issue, a consensus document has been prepared by the Head and Neck Working Party of the AIRO-Lombardia Cooperative Group, based on the proceedings of multidisciplinary meetings and on literature findings. The document contains detailed guidelines for the delineation on CT images of the nodal regions of the neck, including for each nodal region (1 to 7) the description of anatomical limits as seen on CT images.

The paper presents an original application of the recently proposed Red- Cap method of spatial clustering and regionalization on the FlorentineMetropolitan Area (FMA). Demographic indicators are used as the input of a spatial clustering and regionalization model in order to classify the FMA's municipalities into a number of demographically homogeneous as well as spatially contiguous zones. In the context of a gradual decentralization of governance activities we believe the FMA is a representative case of study and that the individuation of new spatial areas built considering both the demographic characteristics of the resident population and the spatial dimension of the territory where this population insists could become a useful tool for local governance. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013.

Extreme value models and techniques are widely applied in environmental studies to define protection systems against the effects of extreme levels of environmental processes. Regarding the matter related to the climate science, a certain importance is covered by the implication of changes in the hydrological cycle. Among all hydrologic processes, rainfall is a very important variable as it is strongly related to flood risk assessment and mitigation, as well as to water resources availability and drought identification. We implement here a geoadditive model for extremes assuming that the observations follow a generalized extreme value distribution with spatially dependent location. The analyzed territory is the catchment area of the Arno River in Tuscany in Central Italy.

Microsatellites have been used for parentage testing and individual identification in forensic science because they are highly polymorphic and show abundant sequences dispersed throughout most eukaryotic nuclear genomes. At present, genetic testing based on DNA technology is used for most domesticated animals, including horses, to confirm identity, to determine parentage, and to validate registration certificates. But if genetic data of one of the putative parents are missing, verifying a genealogy could be questionable. The aim of this paper is to illustrate a new approach to analyze complex cases of disputed relationship with microsatellites markers. These cases were solved by analyzing the genotypes of the offspring and other horses' genotypes in the pedigrees of the putative dam/sire with probabilistic expert systems (PESs). PES was especially efficient in supplying reliable, error-free Bayesian probabilities in complex cases with missing pedigree data. One of these systems was developed for forensic purposes (FINEX program) and is particularly valuable in human analyses. We applied this program to parentage analysis in horses, and we will illustrate how different cases have been successfully worked out.

Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MM), a rare tumor characterized by high local invasiveness and low metastatic efficiency, is poorly responsive to current therapeutic approaches. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the cytotoxic efficacy of the hybrid polar compound hexamethylene bisacetamide (HMBA), either as a single agent or in combination with the anthracycline doxorubicin (DOX), against MM cells. The MM cell lines MM-B1 and MM-E1 were treated with HMBA, DOX or with combinations of the two drugs. Cell survival and death were assessed by the MTS assay and trypan blue staining/TUNEL, respectively. The interactions between drugs were evaluated by the method of Kern et al. Western blot analysis was used to investigate the expression of Bcl-2 family proteins. When administered alone, HMBA dose-dependently decreased the number of viable cells and increased the death rate of MM-B1 and MM-E1 cultures. Combinations of HMBA and DOX achieved a synergistic inhibition of MM cell survival, and the simultaneous administration of HMBA counteracted the resistance induced by DOX in MM-E1 cells. HMBA, used at cytostatic concentrations, reduced the ratio between antiapoptotic (Bcl-2, Bcl-XL) and proapoptotic (Bax) members of the Bcl-2 family of proteins, thus lowering the threshold for MM cell death commitment. HMBA has therapeutic potential in MM both as a single agent and through potentiation of DOX toxicity. These results support future investigations on the feasibility of intrapleural chemotherapy with this hybrid polar compound.

Background and purpose : The relationship between the radiation dose and the risk of the osteoradionecrosis is well known. However, the dose to the mandible is not routinely assessed in the radiotherapy for head and neck cancer. The aim of our study was to analyze the mandibular dose distribution in the patients administered curative radiotherapy for squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx. Moreover, the clinical results have been analyzed. Material and methods : We examined the clinical records and treatment plans in 18 patients treated with bifractionated radiotherapy for stage II–IV oropharyngeal cancer. In 17 patients, the total radiotherapy dose prescribed in the International Committee of Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) reference point was 74.4Gy administered in 62 fractions (1.2Gy twice daily with 6h interfraction interval) and one patient received a dose of 75.6Gy. The whole dose to the mandibular–orophryngeal region was delivered with 6MV photons. The mandible was contoured manually on computed tomographic scans and the point doses at the both mandibular condyles, ascending ramus, mental symphysis, molar and retromolar regions were assessed. Moreover, the cumulative dose–volume histograms (DHVs) were evaluated. The median follow-up period for alive patients is 30 months (range, 21–44+ months). Results : Tumor remission was observed in 17 patients: in 11 cases, complete remission was achieved and in six cases, only partial remission was possible. One patient was lost to follow-up before the first response evaluation. The median survival for all patients is 22 months (range, 3–44+ months). Ten patients are alive and seven died. In six cases, the cause of death was head and neck tumor and in one died due to pancreatic cancer (second primary). No late bone post-radiation complication was seen. The highest radiotherapy doses were observed in the retromolar regions. The mean percentage doses at the right and left retromolar regions were 101.3±3.8% (range, 90.2–109.1%) and 101.7±2.5% (range, 95.2–105.8%), respectively. Lower doses were seen in ascending ramus (the mean percentage doses at right and left ascending ramus were 97.3±8.5% and 97.8±7.6%, respectively), the molar regions (the mean percentage doses at right and left molar regions were 86.0±13.5% and 88.1±12.9%, respectively), and at the mandibular condyles (the mean percentage doses at the right and left mandibular condyles were 72.6±18% and 77.0±16.5%, respectively). The volume of the mandible ranged from 60.1 to 110.1cm 3 (a mean of of 82.3cm 3 ). In all patients, the maximum dose absorbed in the mandible was higher than the dose prescribed in the ICRU point and the mean maximum dose absorbed in the mandible was 105.7±2.1% (range, 102.4–110.6%). The percentage of mandibular volume receiving a dose higher than prescribed was 28.6±14.9% (range 10.2–58.1%). The area underlying the DVH curve, the maximum mandibular doses and the retromolar doses did not appear to statistically depend on use of wedge or mandibular volume. Conclusions : Radiotherapy for oropharyngeal cancer is associated with high doses to the retromolar mandibular regions (the dose can be higher than prescribed in the ICRU reference point), ascending ramus and molar regions. Lower doses are absorbed at the condyles and mental symphysis. The single dose point (for example, the ICRU reference point) could be not used as a representative for the mandibular dose. In our small series of patients treated with hyperfractionated irradiation, these dose heterogeneities were not correlated to the patient- and treatment-related factors and are not related to the increased risk of late bone complications. The clinical relevance of mandibular dose distribution remains to be established in larger series of patients treated with conventionally and unconventionally fractionated irradiation.

International audience; Language has been traditionally considered as a qualitative phenomenon that mainly requires hermeneutical methodologies in order to be studied, yet in recent decades thanks to advances in data storage, processing and visualization - there has been a growing and fertile interest in analysing language by relying on statistics and quantitative methods. In light of these motivations, we think it is worthwhile to try to explore databases made up of transcripted infant children spoken language in order to verify whether and how underlying patterns and recurrent sequences of learning stages work during acquisition. So, we think that the Expectation Maximization clustering method combined with an innovative graphical visualization can be useful to evaluate the development of linguistic structures over time in a reliable way.

In this paper, we propose a novel approach in stock clustering with the purpose of the construction of a portfolio optimization strategy. The idea is to exploit hierarchical Neural Network Principal Component Analysis and Adaptive LASSO in combination with the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in order to group stocks whose returns are affected by the same risk factors, and then eliminate such dependence through an appropriately constructed portfolio. We test our proposal on the Italian stock market.

The identification of groups’ prototypes, i.e. elements of a dataset that are representative of the group they belong to, is relevant to the tasks of clustering, classification and mixture modeling. The R package pivmet includes different methods for extracting pivotal units from a dataset, to be exploited for a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) relabelling technique for dealing with label switching in Bayesian estimation of mixture models. Moreover, consensus clustering based on pivotal units may improve classical algorithms (e.g. k-means) by means of a careful seeding.