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Knowledge of the characteristics of natural climate variability is vital when assessing the range of plausible future climate trajectories in the next decades to centuries. The reliable detection of climate fluctuations on multidecadal to centennial timescales depends on proxy reconstructions and model simulations, as the instrumental record extends back only a few decades in most parts of the world. Systematic comparisons between model-simulated and proxy-based inferences of natural variability, however, often seem contradictory. Locally, simulated temperature variability is consistently smaller on multidecadal and longer timescales than is indicated by proxy-based reconstructions, implying that climate models or proxy interpretations might have deficiencies. In contrast, at global scales, studies found agreement between simulated and proxy reconstructed temperature variations. Here we review the evidence regarding the scale of natural temperature variability during recent millennia. We identify systematic reconstruction deficiencies that may contribute to differing local and global model–proxy agreement but conclude that they are probably insufficient to resolve such discrepancies. Instead, we argue that regional climate variations persisted for longer timescales than climate models simulating past climate states are able to reproduce. This would imply an underestimation of the regional variability on multidecadal and longer timescales and would bias climate projections and attribution studies. Thus, efforts are needed to improve the simulation of natural variability in climate models accompanied by further refining proxy-based inferences of variability., This study was undertaken by members of CVAS and 2k Network, working groups of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) Global Research association. This is a contribution to the SPACE ERC, STACY and PALMOD projects. The SPACE ERC project has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 716092). STACY has been funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation, project no. 395588486). This work has also been supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), through the PalMod project (subprojects 01LP1926B (O.B.), 01LP1926D (M.C.) and 01LP1926C (B.E., P.S. and N.W.)) from the Research for Sustainability initiative (FONA). B.E. is supported by the Heinrich Böll Foundation. E.M.-C. was supported by the PARAMOUR project, funded by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique–FNRS and the FWO under the Excellence of Science (EOS) programme (grant no. O0100718F, EOS ID no. 30454083). A.H. was supported by a Legacy Grant from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage. B.M. was supported by LINKA20102 and the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation project CEX2018‐000794‐S. The work originated from discussions at the CVAS working group of PAGES at a workshop at the Internationales Wissenschaftsforum Heidelberg, which was funded by a Hengstberger Prize. We thank N. Beech, C. Brierley, F. Gonzalez-Rouco and M. MacPartland for comments on earlier drafts of the manuscript. This manuscript uses data provided by the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP and PMIP. We thank the research groups for producing and kindly making their model outputs, measurements and palaeoclimate reconstructions available to us. Editorial assistance, in the form of language editing and correction, was provided by XpertScientific Editing and C, Peer Reviewed, Postprint (author's final draft)

Statistical climate reconstruction techniques are fundamental tools to study past climate variability from fossil proxy data. In particular, the methods based on probability density functions (or PDFs) can be used in various environments and with different climate proxies because they rely on elementary calibration data (i.e. modern geolocalised presence data). However, the difficulty of accessing and curating these calibration data and the complexity of interpreting probabilistic results have often limited their use in palaeoclimatological studies. Here, I introduce a new R package (crestr) to apply the PDF-based method CREST (Climate REconstruction SofTware) on diverse palaeoecological datasets and address these problems. crestr includes a globally curated calibration dataset for six common climate proxies (i.e. plants, beetles, chironomids, rodents, foraminifera, and dinoflagellate cysts) associated with an extensive range of climate variables (20 terrestrial and 19 marine variables) that enables its use in most terrestrial and marine environments. Private data collections can also be used instead of, or in combination with, the provided calibration dataset. The package includes a suite of graphical diagnostic tools to represent the data at each step of the reconstruction process and provide insights into the effect of the different modelling assumptions and external factors that underlie a reconstruction. With this R package, the CREST method can now be used in a scriptable environment and thus be more easily integrated with existing workflows. It is hoped that crestr will be used to produce the much-needed quantified climate reconstructions from the many regions where they are currently lacking, despite the availability of suitable fossil records. To support this development, the use of the package is illustrated with a step-by-step replication of a 790 000-year-long mean annual temperature reconstruction based on a pollen record from southeastern Africa.

A mismatch between model- and proxy-based Holocene climate change, known as the Holocene conundrum, may partially originate from the poor spatial coverage of climate reconstructions in, for example, Asia, limiting the number of grid-cells for model-data comparisons. Here we investigate hemispheric, latitudinal, and regional mean time-series as well as anomaly maps of pollen-based reconstructions of mean annual temperature, mean July temperature, and annual precipitation from 1676 records in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Temperature trends show strong latitudinal patterns and differ between (sub-)continents. While the circum-Atlantic regions in Europe and eastern North America show a pronounced mid-Holocene temperature maximum, western North America shows only weak changes and Asia mostly a continuous Holocene temperature increase but with strong latitudinal differences. Likewise, precipitation trends show certain regional peculiarities such as the pronounced mid-Holocene optimum between 30 and 40° N in Asia and Holocene increasing trends in Europe and western North America which can all be linked with Holocene changes of the regional circulation pattern linked to temperature change. Given a background of strong regional heterogeneity, we conclude that the calculation of global or hemispheric means which initiated the Holocene conundrum debate should focus more on understanding the spatio-temporal patterns and their regional drivers.

Across the glacial-interglacial cycles of the late Pleistocene (~700 k.y.), temperature variability at low latitudes is often considered to have been negligible compared to changes in precipitation. However, a paucity of quantified temperature records makes this difficult to reliably assess. In this study, we used the Bayesian method CREST (Climate REconstruction SofTware) to produce a 790,000 yr quantified temperature reconstruction from a marine pollen record from southeast Africa. The results reveal a strong similarity between temperature variability in subtropical Africa and global ice volume and CO2 concentrations, indicating that temperature in the region was not controlled by local insolation, but followed global trends at these time scales, with an amplitude of ~4 °C between glacial minima and interglacial maxima. The data also enabled us to make an assessment of the impact of temperature change on pollen diversity, with results showing there is no link between glacial-age temperatures/CO2 and a loss of diversity in this record.

Statistical climate reconstruction techniques are practical tools to study past climate variability from fossil proxy data. In particular, the methods based on probability density functions (PDFs) are powerful at producing robust results from various environments and proxies. However, accessing and curating the necessary calibration data, as well as the complexity of interpreting probabilistic results, often limit their use in palaeoclimatological studies. To address these problems, I present a new R package (crestr) to apply the CREST method (Climate REconstruction SofTware) on diverse palaeoecological datasets. crestr includes a globally curated calibration dataset for six common climate proxies (i.e. plants, beetles, chironomids, rodents, foraminifera, and dinoflagellate cysts) that enables its use in most terrestrial and marine regions. The package can also be used with private data collections instead of, or in combination with, the provided dataset. It also includes a suite of graphical diagnostic tools to represent the data at each step of the reconstruction process and provide insights into the effect of the different modelling assumptions and external factors that underlie a reconstruction. With this R package, the CREST method can now be used in a scriptable environment, thus simplifying its use and integration in existing workflows. It is hoped that crestr will contribute to producing the much-needed quantified records from the many regions where climate reconstructions are currently lacking, despite the existence of suitable fossil records.