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The paper presents the reconstruction of the most catastrophic debris flows in the Gerkhozhan-Su river valley (North Caucasus, Russia) based on a chain of mathematical models. Transport-shift model was applied for 6 sections of debris flow formation or intense material increment, while for the rest the FLO-2D hydrodynamic model was used. A number of numerical experiments were carried out in the transport-shift model for a section of a debris flow origination site with a change in the parameters of a potential debris flow-forming soils, such as initial moisture content and density. According to the simulation results, with a rise in moisture content, the maximum debris flow discharge can increase by about 2.8 times. Modeling of debris flow in the Gerkhozhan-Su river valley was conducted for the case of low density debris flow. Based on the results, debris flow wave hydrographs were obtained at 12 sections. The results of modeling are in general agreement with the commonly accepted reconstructed pattern of the debris flow in 2000 and values obtained by videomaterials.

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One of the most far-reaching glacier-related hazards in the Tian Shan Mountains of Kyrgyzstan is glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and related debris flows. An improved understanding of the formation and evolution of glacial lakes and debris flow susceptibility is therefore essential to assess and mitigate potential hazards and risks. Non-stationary glacier lakes may fill periodically and quickly; the potential for them to outburst increases as water volume may change dramatically over very short periods of time. After the outburst or drainage of a lake, the entire process may start again, and thus these non-stationary lakes are of particular importance in the region. In this work, the Teztor lake complex, located in Northern Kyrgyzstan, was selected for the analysis of outburst mechanisms of non-stationary glacial lakes, their formation, as well as the triggering of flows and development of debris flows and floods downstream of the lakes. The different Teztor lakes are filled with water periodically, and according to field observations, they tend to outburst every 9-10 years on average. The most important event in the area dates back to 1953, and another important event occurred on July 31, 2012. Other smaller outbursts have been recorded as well. Our study shows that the recent GLOF in 2012 was caused by a combination of intense precipitation during the days preceding the event and a rapid rise in air temperatures. Analyses of features in the entrainment and depositional zones point to a total debris flow volume of about 200,000 m, with discharge ranging from 145 to 340 m s and flow velocities between 5 and 7 m s. Results of this study are key for a better design of sound river corridor planning and for the assessment and mitigation of potential GLOF hazards and risks in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]