Search

Suicide is a pressing global issue, demanding urgent and effective preventive interventions. Among the various strategies in place, psychological support hotlines had proved as a potent intervention method. Approximately two million people in China attempt suicide annually, with many individuals making multiple attempts. Prompt identification and intervention for high-risk individuals are crucial to preventing tragedies. With the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI), especially the development of large-scale language models (LLMs), new technological tools have been introduced to the field of mental health. This study included 1284 subjects, and was designed to validate whether deep learning models and LLMs, using audio and transcribed text from support hotlines, can effectively predict suicide risk. We proposed a simple LLM-based pipeline that first summarizes transcribed text from approximately one hour of speech to extract key features, and then predict suicidial bahaviours in the future. We compared our LLM-based method with the traditional manual scale approach in a clinical setting and with five advanced deep learning models. Surprisingly, the proposed simple LLM pipeline achieved strong performance on a test set of 46 subjects, with an F1 score of 76\% when combined with manual scale rating. This is 7\% higher than the best speech-based deep learning models and represents a 27.82\% point improvement in F1 score compared to using the manual scale apporach alone. Our study explores new applications of LLMs and demonstrates their potential for future use in suicide prevention efforts.

Psychological support hotlines are an effective suicide prevention measure that typically relies on professionals using suicide risk assessment scales to predict individual risk scores. However, the accuracy of scale-based predictive methods for suicide risk assessment can vary widely depending on the expertise of the operator. This limitation underscores the need for more reliable methods, prompting this research's innovative exploration of the use of artificial intelligence to improve the accuracy and efficiency of suicide risk prediction within the context of psychological support hotlines. The study included data from 1,549 subjects from 2015-2017 in China who contacted a psychological support hotline. Each participant was followed for 12 months to identify instances of suicidal behavior. We proposed a novel multi-task learning method that uses the large-scale pre-trained model Whisper for feature extraction and fits psychological scales while predicting the risk of suicide. The proposed method yields a 2.4\% points improvement in F1-score compared to the traditional manual approach based on the psychological scales. Our model demonstrated superior performance compared to the other eight popular models. To our knowledge, this study is the first to apply deep learning to long-term speech data to predict suicide risk in China, indicating grate potential for clinical applications. The source code is publicly available at: \url{https://github.com/songchangwei/Suicide-Risk-Prediction}.

One way to increase confidence in the outputs of Large Language Models (LLMs) is to support them with reasoning that is clear and easy to check -- a property we call legibility. We study legibility in the context of solving grade-school math problems and show that optimizing chain-of-thought solutions only for answer correctness can make them less legible. To mitigate the loss in legibility, we propose a training algorithm inspired by Prover-Verifier Game from Anil et al. (2021). Our algorithm iteratively trains small verifiers to predict solution correctness, "helpful" provers to produce correct solutions that the verifier accepts, and "sneaky" provers to produce incorrect solutions that fool the verifier. We find that the helpful prover's accuracy and the verifier's robustness to adversarial attacks increase over the course of training. Furthermore, we show that legibility training transfers to time-constrained humans tasked with verifying solution correctness. Over course of LLM training human accuracy increases when checking the helpful prover's solutions, and decreases when checking the sneaky prover's solutions. Hence, training for checkability by small verifiers is a plausible technique for increasing output legibility. Our results suggest legibility training against small verifiers as a practical avenue for increasing legibility of large LLMs to humans, and thus could help with alignment of superhuman models.

Suicide and suicidal behaviors remain significant challenges for public policy and healthcare. In response, psychological support hotlines have been established worldwide to provide immediate help to individuals in mental crises. The effectiveness of these hotlines largely depends on accurately identifying callers' emotional states, particularly underlying negative emotions indicative of increased suicide risk. However, the high demand for psychological interventions often results in a shortage of professional operators, highlighting the need for an effective speech emotion recognition model. This model would automatically detect and analyze callers' emotions, facilitating integration into hotline services. Additionally, it would enable large-scale data analysis of psychological support hotline interactions to explore psychological phenomena and behaviors across populations. Our study utilizes data from the Beijing psychological support hotline, the largest suicide hotline in China. We analyzed speech data from 105 callers containing 20,630 segments and categorized them into 11 types of negative emotions. We developed a negative emotion recognition model and a fine-grained multi-label classification model using a large-scale pre-trained model. Our experiments indicate that the negative emotion recognition model achieves a maximum F1-score of 76.96%. However, it shows limited efficacy in the fine-grained multi-label classification task, with the best model achieving only a 41.74% weighted F1-score. We conducted an error analysis for this task, discussed potential future improvements, and considered the clinical application possibilities of our study. All the codes are public available.

Widely used alignment techniques, such as reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), rely on the ability of humans to supervise model behavior - for example, to evaluate whether a model faithfully followed instructions or generated safe outputs. However, future superhuman models will behave in complex ways too difficult for humans to reliably evaluate; humans will only be able to weakly supervise superhuman models. We study an analogy to this problem: can weak model supervision elicit the full capabilities of a much stronger model? We test this using a range of pretrained language models in the GPT-4 family on natural language processing (NLP), chess, and reward modeling tasks. We find that when we naively finetune strong pretrained models on labels generated by a weak model, they consistently perform better than their weak supervisors, a phenomenon we call weak-to-strong generalization. However, we are still far from recovering the full capabilities of strong models with naive finetuning alone, suggesting that techniques like RLHF may scale poorly to superhuman models without further work. We find that simple methods can often significantly improve weak-to-strong generalization: for example, when finetuning GPT-4 with a GPT-2-level supervisor and an auxiliary confidence loss, we can recover close to GPT-3.5-level performance on NLP tasks. Our results suggest that it is feasible to make empirical progress today on a fundamental challenge of aligning superhuman models.

Predicting how different interventions will causally affect a specific individual is important in a variety of domains such as personalized medicine, public policy, and online marketing. There are a large number of methods to predict the effect of an existing intervention based on historical data from individuals who received it. However, in many settings it is important to predict the effects of novel interventions (e.g., a newly invented drug), which these methods do not address. Here, we consider zero-shot causal learning: predicting the personalized effects of a novel intervention. We propose CaML, a causal meta-learning framework which formulates the personalized prediction of each intervention's effect as a task. CaML trains a single meta-model across thousands of tasks, each constructed by sampling an intervention, its recipients, and its nonrecipients. By leveraging both intervention information (e.g., a drug's attributes) and individual features~(e.g., a patient's history), CaML is able to predict the personalized effects of novel interventions that do not exist at the time of training. Experimental results on real world datasets in large-scale medical claims and cell-line perturbations demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Most strikingly, \method's zero-shot predictions outperform even strong baselines trained directly on data from the test interventions.

Since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), many contact surveys have been conducted to measure changes in human interactions in the face of the pandemic and non-pharmaceutical interventions. These surveys were typically conducted longitudinally, using protocols that differ from those used in the pre-pandemic era. We present a model-based statistical approach that can reconstruct contact patterns at 1-year resolution even when the age of the contacts is reported coarsely by 5 or 10-year age bands. This innovation is rooted in population-level consistency constraints in how contacts between groups must add up, which prompts us to call the approach presented here the Bayesian rate consistency model. The model incorporates computationally efficient Hilbert Space Gaussian process priors to infer the dynamics in age- and gender-structured social contacts and is designed to adjust for reporting fatigue in longitudinal surveys. We demonstrate on simulations the ability to reconstruct contact patterns by gender and 1-year age interval from coarse data with adequate accuracy and within a fully Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty. We investigate the patterns of social contact data collected in Germany from April to June 2020 across five longitudinal survey waves. We reconstruct the fine age structure in social contacts during the early stages of the pandemic and demonstrate that social contacts rebounded in a structured, non-homogeneous manner. We also show that by July 2020, social contact intensities remained well below pre-pandemic values despite a considerable easing of non-pharmaceutical interventions. This model-based inference approach is open access, computationally tractable enabling full Bayesian uncertainty quantification, and readily applicable to contemporary survey data as long as the exact age of survey participants is reported., Comment: 39 pages, 16 figures

In most existing studies on large-scale multi-agent coordination, the control methods aim to learn discrete policies for agents with finite choices. They rarely consider selecting actions directly from continuous action spaces to provide more accurate control, which makes them unsuitable for more complex tasks. To solve the control issue due to large-scale multi-agent systems with continuous action spaces, we propose a novel MARL coordination control method that derives stable continuous policies. By optimizing policies with maximum entropy learning, agents improve their exploration in execution and acquire an excellent performance after training. We also employ hierarchical graph attention networks (HGAT) and gated recurrent units (GRU) to improve the scalability and transferability of our method. The experiments show that our method consistently outperforms all baselines in large-scale multi-agent cooperative reconnaissance tasks.

In this article we make the concept of a continuous family of triangles precise and prove the moduli functor classifying oriented triangles admits a fine moduli space but the functor classifying non-oriented triangles only admits a coarse moduli space. We hope moduli spaces of triangles can help understand stacks.

Current Knowledge-Grounded Dialogue Generation (KDG) models specialize in producing rational and factual responses. However, to establish long-term relationships with users, the KDG model needs the capability to generate responses in a desired style or attribute. Thus, we study a new problem: Stylized Knowledge-Grounded Dialogue Generation (SKDG). It presents two challenges: (1) How to train a SKDG model where no triples are available. (2) How to cohere with context and preserve the knowledge when generating a stylized response. In this paper, we propose a novel disentangled template rewriting (DTR) method which generates responses via combing disentangled style templates (from monolingual stylized corpus) and content templates (from KDG corpus). The entire framework is end-to-end differentiable and learned without supervision. Extensive experiments on two benchmarks indicate that DTR achieves a significant improvement on all evaluation metrics compared with previous state-of-the-art stylized dialogue generation methods. Besides, DTR achieves comparable performance with the state-of-the-art KDG methods in standard KDG evaluation setting., Comment: Accepted to NAACL 2022 Main Conference

Though recent end-to-end neural models have shown promising progress on Conversational Recommender System (CRS), two key challenges still remain. First, the recommended items cannot be always incorporated into the generated replies precisely and appropriately. Second, only the items mentioned in the training corpus have a chance to be recommended in the conversation. To tackle these challenges, we introduce a novel framework called NTRD for recommender dialogue system that decouples the dialogue generation from the item recommendation. NTRD has two key components, i.e., response template generator and item selector. The former adopts an encoder-decoder model to generate a response template with slot locations tied to target items, while the latter fills in slot locations with the proper items using a sufficient attention mechanism. Our approach combines the strengths of both classical slot filling approaches (that are generally controllable) and modern neural NLG approaches (that are generally more natural and accurate). Extensive experiments on the benchmark ReDial show our NTRD significantly outperforms the previous state-of-the-art methods. Besides, our approach has the unique advantage to produce novel items that do not appear in the training set of dialogue corpus. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/jokieleung/NTRD}., Comment: EMNLP 2021 long paper, code link: https://github.com/jokieleung/NTRD

A common lens to theoretically study neural net architectures is to analyze the functions they can approximate. However, constructions from approximation theory may be unrealistic and therefore less meaningful. For example, a common unrealistic trick is to encode target function values using infinite precision. To address these issues, this work proposes a formal definition of statistically meaningful (SM) approximation which requires the approximating network to exhibit good statistical learnability. We study SM approximation for two function classes: boolean circuits and Turing machines. We show that overparameterized feedforward neural nets can SM approximate boolean circuits with sample complexity depending only polynomially on the circuit size, not the size of the network. In addition, we show that transformers can SM approximate Turing machines with computation time bounded by $T$ with sample complexity polynomial in the alphabet size, state space size, and $\log (T)$. We also introduce new tools for analyzing generalization which provide much tighter sample complexities than the typical VC-dimension or norm-based bounds, which may be of independent interest.

We consider the nonparametric estimation of an S-shaped regression function. The least squares estimator provides a very natural, tuning-free approach, but results in a non-convex optimisation problem, since the inflection point is unknown. We show that the estimator may nevertheless be regarded as a projection onto a finite union of convex cones, which allows us to propose a mixed primal-dual bases algorithm for its efficient, sequential computation. After developing a projection framework that demonstrates the consistency and robustness to misspecification of the estimator, our main theoretical results provide sharp oracle inequalities that yield worst-case and adaptive risk bounds for the estimation of the regression function, as well as a rate of convergence for the estimation of the inflection point. These results reveal not only that the estimator achieves the minimax optimal rate of convergence for both the estimation of the regression function and its inflection point (up to a logarithmic factor in the latter case), but also that it is able to achieve an almost-parametric rate when the true regression function is piecewise affine with not too many affine pieces. Simulations and a real data application to air pollution modelling also confirm the desirable finite-sample properties of the estimator, and our algorithm is implemented in the R package Sshaped., Comment: 79 pages, 10 figures

Domain generalization aims at performing well on unseen test environments with data from a limited number of training environments. Despite a proliferation of proposal algorithms for this task, assessing their performance both theoretically and empirically is still very challenging. Distributional matching algorithms such as (Conditional) Domain Adversarial Networks [Ganin et al., 2016, Long et al., 2018] are popular and enjoy empirical success, but they lack formal guarantees. Other approaches such as Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) require a prohibitively large number of training environments -- linear in the dimension of the spurious feature space $d_s$ -- even on simple data models like the one proposed by [Rosenfeld et al., 2021]. Under a variant of this model, we show that both ERM and IRM cannot generalize with $o(d_s)$ environments. We then present an iterative feature matching algorithm that is guaranteed with high probability to yield a predictor that generalizes after seeing only $O(\log d_s)$ environments. Our results provide the first theoretical justification for a family of distribution-matching algorithms widely used in practice under a concrete nontrivial data model., Comment: We acknowledge that the previous version of this paper (v1) contained an error - Theorem 3.2 was incorrect. We removed this theorem and updated the rest of the paper in v2

Arguably, the visual perception of conversational agents to the physical world is a key way for them to exhibit the human-like intelligence. Image-grounded conversation is thus proposed to address this challenge. Existing works focus on exploring the multimodal dialog models that ground the conversation on a given image. In this paper, we take a step further to study image-grounded conversation under a fully open-ended setting where no paired dialog and image are assumed available. Specifically, we present Maria, a neural conversation agent powered by the visual world experiences which are retrieved from a large-scale image index. Maria consists of three flexible components, i.e., text-to-image retriever, visual concept detector and visual-knowledge-grounded response generator. The retriever aims to retrieve a correlated image to the dialog from an image index, while the visual concept detector extracts rich visual knowledge from the image. Then, the response generator is grounded on the extracted visual knowledge and dialog context to generate the target response. Extensive experiments demonstrate Maria outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods on automatic metrics and human evaluation, and can generate informative responses that have some visual commonsense of the physical world., Comment: Accepted by ACL 2021 main conference

Self-training algorithms, which train a model to fit pseudolabels predicted by another previously-learned model, have been very successful for learning with unlabeled data using neural networks. However, the current theoretical understanding of self-training only applies to linear models. This work provides a unified theoretical analysis of self-training with deep networks for semi-supervised learning, unsupervised domain adaptation, and unsupervised learning. At the core of our analysis is a simple but realistic "expansion" assumption, which states that a low probability subset of the data must expand to a neighborhood with large probability relative to the subset. We also assume that neighborhoods of examples in different classes have minimal overlap. We prove that under these assumptions, the minimizers of population objectives based on self-training and input-consistency regularization will achieve high accuracy with respect to ground-truth labels. By using off-the-shelf generalization bounds, we immediately convert this result to sample complexity guarantees for neural nets that are polynomial in the margin and Lipschitzness. Our results help explain the empirical successes of recently proposed self-training algorithms which use input consistency regularization., Comment: Published at ICLR 2021

It is common for people to create different types of charts to explore a multi-dimensional dataset (table). However, to recommend commonly composed charts in real world, one should take the challenges of efficiency, imbalanced data and table context into consideration. In this paper, we propose Table2Charts framework which learns common patterns from a large corpus of (table, charts) pairs. Based on deep Q-learning with copying mechanism and heuristic searching, Table2Charts does table-to-sequence generation, where each sequence follows a chart template. On a large spreadsheet corpus with 165k tables and 266k charts, we show that Table2Charts could learn a shared representation of table fields so that recommendation tasks on different chart types could mutually enhance each other. Table2Charts outperforms other chart recommendation systems in both multi-type task (with doubled recall numbers R@3=0.61 and R@1=0.43) and human evaluations., Comment: 9 + 2(appendix) pages, accepted by KDD'21 conference

Real-world large-scale datasets are heteroskedastic and imbalanced -- labels have varying levels of uncertainty and label distributions are long-tailed. Heteroskedasticity and imbalance challenge deep learning algorithms due to the difficulty of distinguishing among mislabeled, ambiguous, and rare examples. Addressing heteroskedasticity and imbalance simultaneously is under-explored. We propose a data-dependent regularization technique for heteroskedastic datasets that regularizes different regions of the input space differently. Inspired by the theoretical derivation of the optimal regularization strength in a one-dimensional nonparametric classification setting, our approach adaptively regularizes the data points in higher-uncertainty, lower-density regions more heavily. We test our method on several benchmark tasks, including a real-world heteroskedastic and imbalanced dataset, WebVision. Our experiments corroborate our theory and demonstrate a significant improvement over other methods in noise-robust deep learning., Comment: to appear in ICLR 2021

Online machine learning systems need to adapt to domain shifts. Meanwhile, acquiring label at every timestep is expensive. We propose a surprisingly simple algorithm that adaptively balances its regret and its number of label queries in settings where the data streams are from a mixture of hidden domains. For online linear regression with oblivious adversaries, we provide a tight tradeoff that depends on the durations and dimensionalities of the hidden domains. Our algorithm can adaptively deal with interleaving spans of inputs from different domains. We also generalize our results to non-linear regression for hypothesis classes with bounded eluder dimension and adaptive adversaries. Experiments on synthetic and realistic datasets demonstrate that our algorithm achieves lower regret than uniform queries and greedy queries with equal labeling budget.