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The disease natural history of colorectal neoplasm regarding two opposing theories, adenoma-carcinoma sequence and de novo carcinoma theory, is controversial and rarely quantified. The aims of this study are therefore to estimate the dwelling times of adenoma-carcinoma sequence by adenoma size and histological type, taking de novo carcinoma into account. The efficacy of polypectomy was therefore estimated making allowance for two pathways. A case-cohort design, underpinning a cohort with 13 908 subjects (including 10 496 normal subjects, 2652 polyps, 760 colorectal cancers) who underwent the first examination of colonoscopy between 1979 and 1998, was devised to estimate parameters associated with two opposing theories by randomly selecting 305 normal subjects, 300 patients with polyps, and 116 colorectal cancers from the cohort. All the 2652 polyps were linked to national cancer registry to ascertain 25 invasive carcinomas after polypectomy. For the five-state model associated with adenoma size, dwelling times of small (0.6-1 cm) and large adenoma (>1 cm) are 7.75 and 5.27 years for the model without considering de novo, and 17.48 and 15.90 years for the model taking de novo carcinoma into account. Similar findings are observed for the model associated with histological type. The estimated proportions of de novo carcinoma are 31.87% from the model by adenoma size and 27.81% from the model by histological type. Compared to size less than 5 mm, patients with adenoma size between 6 and 10 mm and patients with adenoma size larger than 1 cm have 2.17-fold (0.67-10.74) and 4.25-fold (1.23-14.70), respectively, for the risk of malignant transformation. There are similar findings for the model by histological type. The estimates of overall efficacy of colonoscopy in reducing CRC is 73% for the model allowing for de novo carcinoma and 88% for the model without considering de novo carcinoma theory. The efficacy of diminutive adenoma and small adenoma increases with follow-up years, whereas the efficacy of large adenoma decreases with follow-up years. In conclusion, about 30% of cancers arising from de novo sequence are demonstrated. This finding, together with the adenoma-carcinoma sequence associated with adenoma size and histological type, is important for the estimation of dwelling times, the efficacy of colonoscopy, and the surveillance of polyp after polypectomy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We studied the quantitative genetics of bud phenology, fall frost damage, and winter survival in an F2 family (no. 822) of Populus hybrids derived from a cross between two full-sub F1 hybrids (P. trichocarpa (Torr. & Gray×P. deltoides Bartr.). Field traits studied included the timing of bud set (BSF) in Minnesota and Oregon, the timing of bud flush (BFF) in Oregon, as well as fall frost damage (FDF) and winter survival (WSF) in Minnesota. We conclude that Family 822 has substantial genetic variability for all field traits, BSF and BFF are under moderate to strong genetic control (H2i=0.48–0.80), FDF and WSF are under low to moderate genetic control (H2i=0.27–0.40), and late bud set is associated with increased frost damage and decreased winter survival. In a warm greenhouse, we measured the timing of bud set and the number of new leaves on trees growing under either an 8-h photoperiod (BSSD and NLSD) or a natural photoperiod (NP) from August to December (BSNP and NLNP). We found that BSSD, NLSD, and NLNP are under moderate genetic control (H2i=0.53–0.70), but the heritability of BSNP could not be determined because few trees set bud in the warm greenhouse under the NP. By comparing results from the greenhouse experiments with results from the field, we conclude that the genetic correlation between BSSD and BSF (0.53–0.60) is relatively modest and that NPs in the fall are relatively ineffective at promoting bud set under warm greenhouse temperatures, although bud set readily occurred in the field. Although, low levels of light pollution in the greenhouse might have affected BSNP, results from both greenhouse and field experiments suggest that genetic differences in photoperiodic responses play a modest role in explaining genetic differences in the timing of bud set under natural field conditions. Therefore, genetic differences in responses to other environmental factors, such as temperature, deserve greater attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]